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Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2024-Q3

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Operator

Good afternoon. This is the conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the presentation of Moltiply Group Third Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marco Pescarmona, Chairman; Mr. Alessandro Alvaro Fracassi. CEO; and Mr. Francesco Masciandaro, CFO. Please go ahead.

M
Marco Pescarmona
executive

Thank you, and welcome, everybody, to our call. This is Marco. We will, as usual, rely on the presentation that has been uploaded on our website. By the way, the website is a new version. So I hope it's functioning and everything is clear. If you find any problems, please let us know. But assuming that you have the presentation in front of you, we will start, I would say, directly with Page 19 with the highlights of Q3 of 2024.

And so we were -- first of all, we are pleased with the results of this quarter. We record -- we will post revenues of EUR 106.9 million in Q3 2024, which is up 12.9% year-on-year. And EBITDA is EUR 28.3 million, which is up 12.7% year-on-year, which means also that the EBITDA margin is stable year-on-year at 26.5%. The EBIT is EUR 16.3 million in Q3 2024. That's minus 0.2% year-on-year, but this is as usual affected by the -- mostly by the EBITDA amortization and that were not homogeneously distributed by the way, during the year last year. There was a big jump in the last quarter.

Net income is just a consequence of the above. So the net income in Q3 is EUR 9.6 million, and that's minus 14.9% year-on-year compared to EUR [ 11.3 ] million of Q3 2023. If we look at the performance of the 2 divisions, we can go to Page 21 with Mavriq. Mavriq, which is, as you know, the new name of the Broking division, generated revenues of EUR 53.8 million in Q3 2024. That's up 14.2% year-on-year and an EBITDA of EUR 16.8 million, which is up 13.6% year-on-year. And the EBIT for the Mavriq division is EUR 11.4 million in Q3 2024, down 7.2% due to [ PP&A. ]

Now overall, the Mavriq performed strongly, but as expected. So we had already anticipated, we were expecting growth across the board, and this is what happened. And the best performance came from insurance broking, e-commerce price comparison, and Telco & Energy comparison, but also we had -- we could see the expected recovery of mortgage volumes. And so we also have a positive impact for the credit-related business lines. So overall, all engines, even at different speeds were running. And this is what happened in Q3. And we would expect the same to happen in Q4. Also in Q4, in particular, we will benefit from the consolidation of Pricewise, which is our business in the Netherlands.

In Q3, we already had the contribution of Switcho, which is an Italian business in energy comparison mostly. But most of the performance of Q3 anyway is organic performance. So this is for broking. So it's quite simple. And going forward to 2025 for now, we don't have any particular visibility. But so far, there is also no reason to expect a change in the trends that we are seeing, which are currently favorable across the board. So I think we can switch to BPO. So Alessandro, back to you.

A
Alessandro Fracassi
executive

Yes. Hello, everyone, and thanks for being here. I'll start on Page 24, where we have the third quarter results, the Moltiply BPO and Tech Division. As you can see, we grew from EUR 47.5 million last year to EUR 53 million this year. It's an 11.7% year-on-year growth in the quarter. And we had a similar performance at an EBITDA level. So you see at 10.4 -- we grow from EUR 10.4 million to EUR 11.5 million. That's again an 11.4% year-on-year growth. The EBITDA margin has basically remained stable at 21.8%, 21.7%. At an EBIT level here, we have a better growth. This is basically because some of the purchase price amortization are getting out of impact.

And this is -- by the way, I should comment that these are results that are on a like-for-like basis. So there is no consolidation or no increase of the perimeter. So all what you're seeing is organic growth. Frankly, this is better than what we expected. So this was a pleasant surprise. We expected, as you might recall, that the second half of the year would have basically shown a decrease in results and bring us back on a yearly basis, I mean, on a full year '24 basis to results similar to the one of last year. And the reason why we're expecting that is because -- and it is sell-through underneath the performance, what I would call a strong performance of the BPO, there is actually a patchwork and a different performance of the different business lines, and so we have two strong business lines currently, both in terms of revenues and operating margins, which are the Moltiply lease and the Moltiply claims, while the other parts were kind of stable or struggling.

What has happened in this -- and we were expecting a couple of months ago, that the strength of the two engines that are still driving growth both in revenues and profitability would kind of decrease, and therefore, we would see more the impact of the other business line. Reality is these business lines to continue strongly to perform. And therefore, now we have changed our outlook is more positive one, and we expect to grow year-on-year on a full year '24 basis relative to last year. But in terms of what we are seeing in the different business line is basically the same concept.

So Moltiply Lease is going -- is performing strongly, especially for operating services, a little weaker on the technology services. Claims are still working on the very profitable ending part of the queue of the claims of last year, claims due to the exceptional meteorological phenomena. And the ones that -- the claims that are very long to work are normally the one that are bigger, more important, and where our value as appraiser is stronger and therefore, where our marginality is more significant. It is fair to say that we have also seen a recovery in the mortgage outsourcing part. So these are also performed a little bit better than what we expected it to do.

The other business lines are basically follow new and what we commented on months ago. So we're seeing Moltiply loans that grows in terms of revenues, but it's stable in terms of margins, total margin. So the marginality is a little challenged. And Moltiply Wealth, which is stable in both terms and which is, in the end, a good news for this part. And instead, as we know, we have a contraction on the Moltiply real estate business line. And the reason, as you might recall, is that we don't have anymore the support or we have -- at this point, a minimal support of the work related to the Ecobonus incentive schemes that are now really in their final weeks.

So as I mentioned, in light of these trends, I think it's fair to assume that we will see a fourth quarter similar to the third quarter. And therefore, in the end, we will see growth year-on-year also for Moltiply Tech. One last comment. If we look at 2025, we expect the mortgage market to continue to recover. So that's I think, a good news. And I also have to say that we see a lot of interest in our services across the board. So I mean, obviously, it's at this point, commercial interest, but I think that it speaks to the fact that we can have a positive attitude looking at '25 and in general, in the medium term.

So I'll hand it back to Marco for comments on the net financial position.

M
Marco Pescarmona
executive

Thank you, Alessandro. So on Page 27, we have the net financial position. The net financial position as of September 30, 2024, is negative EUR 321 million, and that compares to negative EUR 316 million of the end of June. But in the quarter, we had significant outflows or recognition of liabilities because basically, we closed the acquisition of Pricewise. And the price for that was announced to be, I think, EUR 25 million, and that's for 80% cash price. And for the remainder, it's a recognition of a put and call option, which, of course, will be subject to adjustments. But this is just to give you a ballpark indication. And so despite the significant outflow. And also, we have a second smaller outflow, which is like partial payment that was still due for Switcho. This is all in the report.

Basically, despite all these extraordinary outflows for acquisitions and also we paid the dividends in July. We -- the net financial position didn't change much. So there was good cash generation and good performance of the working capital. So there is not much more to be said here. And I think the best would be just to terminate the presentation and open the floor to questions. So I would hand it over to the operator for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question is from Aleksandra Arsova, Equita.

A
Aleksandra Arsova
analyst

Three on my side. The first one is maybe on mortgages. You stated in your press release that you are seeing some first signs of progressive improvement. So just maybe a little bit of color on this. Over the last quarter, you said to us that you saw an increase in demand, but still some -- not enough interest on the supply side. So what is changing right now? And what is the kind of trends and growth rates you are experiencing there? The second one on, let's say, e-commerce. So what is the level of, let's say, of aggressiveness by Google and if you are seeing actual improvements in the way they behave after the European Digital Market Act? And sorry, another one on the, let's say, e-commerce.

Now at government level, they are speaking that maybe in the budget law, there will be this change in the so-called web tax when maybe they will tax online companies doing some online business, lifting this threshold of more than EUR 750 million in revenues. So it's not certain, but I was just wondering if any of your companies, especially Trovaprezzi will be potentially hit by this tax.

And the last one on the BPO, on the claim management. So you were mentioning that the positive surprise that you saw in the quarter was also lead to the tail of some projects works related to 2023 events. But actually, unfortunately, we saw some other catastrophic events again, floods in Italy recently. So I was wondering whether you will -- you expect to see some new workflow from these, let's say, events to come in the next months or quarters? And in general, if you are seeing some more interest by insurance companies to maybe ask you for further services or increased services in terms of claim management, given the more structural, let's say, phenomenon of these catastrophic events.

M
Marco Pescarmona
executive

Okay. Thank you. So first, on -- I'll take the question on the mortgage market and the one on e-commerce, let's say. And on the mortgage market, what we are seeing, I think, is in line with the market. So there was a strong month of July with a significant growth year-on-year, followed by a weak month of August and then a decent September. So overall growth and feeling that growth is picking up. And yes, I think what we see is more or less aligned with what we see in market data. And this is also affected by interest rates moving and people waiting and all those things. So that's sometimes a bit bumpy. But again, the trend is favorable and what we're seeing is in, I would say, coherent with the evolution of the market.

And regarding e-commerce, the questions are actually 2. One is about Google's compliance. So far, there have been no changes. There is an open investigation for noncompliance with the DMA with respect to favoring. We -- the timing, the speed of these proceedings is faster than antitrust proceedings. So we would expect to see some movements in the coming months. But so far, we haven't seen anything. So it's still a situation of potential noncompliance and an open investigation on the matter and all the aggregators complaining about the situation. But we have to see how this evolves.

And regarding the web tax, well, this is potentially something that is not very good for us. Just as a reminder to people that are not from Italy, a few years ago, Italy introduced a tax on the revenues of large, say, digital companies that typically avoid paying taxes in Italy. So they have like incredible revenues in the country, but the tax basis -- their taxable profits end up being very, very little, and they pay very little in the country. So Italy introduced a tax on revenues of 3% as something that would be temporary before a similar digital services tax before the global introduction or the European introduction of a global digital tax.

This was the idea. So to tax those gatekeepers that have been able to avoid paying taxes locally and only as a temporary measure. Now the government has announced that possibly as part of the budget law for 2025, they will remove the threshold that was put in this law, which is a threshold of minimum revenues of EUR 750 million. And so just remove it completely. And so this would hit all digital businesses. Then the definitions are a bit obscure. So it's not completely clear if, say, like mortgage intermediation would fall under this or not. But certainly, things like e-commerce, like Trovaprezzi would be subject to this. And so that would mean paying a tax of 3% of the revenues of Trovaprezzi.

And by the way, this would also be relevant for travel websites, classified websites, all sorts of Internet businesses. And again, the definition is a bit obscure, are a bit fuzzy. So this could be catching also some things that were totally unintended. And so we don't know exactly what will happen. This is not a tax that will be immediately payable. In any case, if it's payable, it's payable 1 year later. So it's not even clear whether they'll think about it and then fix it or it's just a confusing situation from what is visible now -- the most likely scenario for now is that this -- well, likely, I wouldn't say, but let's say, if this is implemented, it would most likely affect our e-commerce business, and we would have to figure out whether it affects the other businesses where we are acting as an online intermediary.

And -- but to model it is very simple. It's just 3% of revenues. And of course, if something of this is imposed on us, we'll see if the burden can be shared with our clients, but that's also something to be seen. So -- by the way, this is a bit surprise. This is a surprise because this is going to damage if it's implemented, all the digital businesses, all the more modern things that are in the country that typically reduce costs and simplify life for consumers. So in the end, it would be a tax on consumers. And we don't know why they are doing this, if it's for -- to get money or if it's possibly part of trade discussions with the United States to avoid saying that like American companies have discriminated with the current taxation. So it's all still uncertain from our point of view, both the reasons, the applicability and effects. And -- so it's worth monitoring this. It was a good question actually.

A
Alessandro Fracassi
executive

Yes. Okay. Then in terms of the claims management BPO, yes, obviously, and unfortunately, the meteorological events are continuing to hit and somehow they are becoming more structural as we have discussed also in the past. And as you have noticed, there haven't been still clearing of the natural catastrophe insurance becoming compulsory and how it will happen. So still, we are waiting for that.

By the way, I think the one thing that is important to remember here is not just the magnitude of the event, but it's also where it hits. And in Italy, we have seen some events of significant maybe or comparable magnitude to others, but nothing that really impacted large cities. Something like what happened in Valencia, for example, instead, would create a lot of necessity for claim insurance. But in Italy, we have seen things, but not very industrialized or inhabited cities apart from the fact that these events are always tragic and unfortunately, they involve the health of people.

In terms of seeing more demand, actually, no, there hasn't been a structural differences in the way insurance companies are thinking about this. We are being successful in managing these claims, and we are becoming more and more effective and efficient in doing it. And that will, I believe, shift market shares in our favor. But apart from this, I wouldn't say that I see demand changes on the insurance -- on the insurance part at this point. I think everybody is waiting to know what's going to happen on the Nat Cat insurance regulation. I hope I've answered.

Operator

The next question is from Tommaso Nieddu, Kepler Cheuvreux.

T
Tommaso Nieddu
analyst

Hello, everyone. Good results. I have 2, please. So first, you have given a bit of a more positive view compared to what you said during the H1 for Moltiply division. So if you can give us a bit more context behind that? Is it a stronger Moltiply claims or other lines contribution? And the second, that's very a quick one. Maybe I missed it in the press release, but what was the organic growth in Q3 for Mavriq or in other terms, if you can give us what was the contribution of the newly acquired Switcho?

A
Alessandro Fracassi
executive

Yes. Well, basically, it's what I said. So on one side, there has been a little bit of improvement in mortgages and also real estate didn't go as bad as we expected it to go. And then on the other hand, claims and especially the lease part on the operations side has been stronger than expected. If you remember my comment on the leasing part in H1, I was mentioning how we are keeping in line with like the best year ever that was 2023, but 2023 had some one-off impacts.

And so this was a growth that was completely organic without one-off impacts. And so to me, it was already very, very good to be able to keep at that level. Reality that we are seeing quarter after quarter is that this organic growth continues -- and so we will do better there than last year, and that's the positive surprise that we're seeing instead in our models, we were forecasting it to remain at the level of last year.

M
Marco Pescarmona
executive

Okay. And regarding the growth of Mavriq and the contribution of Switcho. Well the only acquisition that is affecting the results of Mavriq in the first half is the Switcho acquisition...

A
Alessandro Fracassi
executive

Meaning the third quarter, Marco.

M
Marco Pescarmona
executive

Sorry, yes, sorry, in the third quarter. So anyway, Switcho was acquired. When we did the press release of Switcho, we communicated that the company had posted EUR 1.8 million of EBITDA in 2023. This was expected to grow significantly. So let's say, whatever this significantly means, but let's say, it's something that is above EUR 2 million for sure. And then you do 1/4 of that, if it's EUR 2 million, it would be EUR 500,000. If it's EUR 3 million, it would be EUR 750,000. That would be the contribution of Switcho in the third quarter. All the rest in the third quarter compared to the third quarter of the previous year is organic.

Operator

The next question is from Luigi Tramontana of Banca Akros.

L
Luigi Tramontana
analyst

Two questions -- 3 questions left on my side. First one is, given that there is still no compliance from Google, are you still working in e-com price comparison at basically 0 margin? Or is something changing there? Second question is on Moltiply Wealth, where, if I'm not wrong, your largest customer is Azimut.

Azimut has a large reorganization project with an important spin-off. Do you have any insight on the possible evolution of your contracts with the company? And are you preparing eventually to compensate any possible loss of business with new contracts with new clients? And the last one is just a clarification on the EUR 3 million financial income you booked in Q3. Is it related to the recalculation of the put and call options that you were mentioning before?

M
Marco Pescarmona
executive

Okay. Let's start from the last one. So no, we received a dividend from MoneySuperMarket. I think that's because they pay a dividend twice a year. And we also have some -- for the liquidity, we also have some money market ETFs that possibly contributed a little bit. But this is not a recalculation of the put and call liabilities. Actually, I should have mentioned it before. The main puts and calls are related to our BPO claims and BPO leasing businesses that are both doing very well. So actually, we had some adjustment, which means an increase in the liabilities that is also visible in the net financial position. So the financial income doesn't include that. It's the other things.

And then regarding the situation with Google and the performance of e-commerce price comparison. Let's say, first of all, the business is not running at 0 margin. It's actually running still at a good margin. The problem is it could be probably, I don't know, 10x bigger or many times bigger with a different competitive environment. But it's not a business that is not making money. It was down year-on-year in -- especially in the second quarter, but the situation improved somewhat in the third quarter. So in the third quarter, the business is up year-on-year and generating a profit margin that is not far from the average level of the division, I would say. The problem is, again, that this is a very big market in which we have a market share that is well below what would be normal in -- with a level playing field.

Alessandro for the other.

A
Alessandro Fracassi
executive

Yes. Okay. Here, I have to be a little careful because I'm really not sure of how much Azimut has made public. And obviously, here, I have some inside information. So I'll try to remain high. Well, first of all, yes, of course, you're right, Azimut is undergoing -- it's our first client, and it's undergoing a very significant transformation. Let me say, first, we'll be partner also of new bank. So we -- then obviously, they change their model, but we'll still be the operational partner. So that's one point.

Second point is we are anyway increasing our -- increasing the latitude of our partnership -- long-term partnership at this point, almost 10 years with Azimut. And so we are also becoming more and more a provider of technological solutions. And so that's also important for our business on the wealth side. And then yes, we are seeing interest also of other clients. And I mentioned before, generically speaking about the whole BPO part, the whole Moltiply division. But specifically also on the West side, although I cannot announce anything as a firm contract, but we are in a very advanced negotiation also with other parties.

So I am reasonably positive of 2025 and the outlook for also this piece of Moltiply. Then clearly, it is a significant transformation that Azimut is undergoing. There are some also operational risks involved, also the timing, it's to be defined. So we will see. So I'm not saying that we will not see an impact on our numbers. But I am confident that overall, this is good news.

L
Luigi Tramontana
analyst

Okay. That's enough. Just a follow-up on the management of the [ weather cat, ] where you stated that you're becoming very efficient there. Given that you are acquisitive, generally speaking, in your strategy, may you consider eventually to develop abroad in this specific vertical?

A
Alessandro Fracassi
executive

Well, we are already in this specific vertical. The claims present a little bit abroad, but I mean, it's not significant, but around -- well, it's not a public number. But I mean, it's not 0 or what we do with abroad because we have some contracts basically with some Lloyd's syndicate and therefore, we do manage also some businesses that's abroad, but there is nothing obviously of the scale and of the structure of this part.

I don't know. Reality is if we do it, we might do it following Italian clients. But generally speaking, the Moltiply division does not have a strategy of very significant internationalization. So that doesn't mean that at a certain point, especially through acquisitions, we will not do it. We might do it. But not at this point. It's not in the next months or in the next year.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

M
Marco Pescarmona
executive

Well, thank you. Then I think we can thank everybody for participating and close the call. And we are, as always, available for one-on-ones questions, whatever you already know our contact. Thank you.

A
Alessandro Fracassi
executive

Thank you, everyone...

M
Marco Pescarmona
executive

Thank you. Bye-bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.