Iveco Group NV

MIL:IVG

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q4

[Operator]

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's Iveco Group 2022 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Federico Donati, Head of Investor Relations.

[Federico Donati, executive]

Thank you, Sarah. Good morning, everyone. We would like to welcome you to the webcast and conference call for Iveco Group's fourth quarter and full year financial results for the period ending 31 December, 2022. This call is being broadcast live on our website and is copyrighted by Iveco Group. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this broadcast without the express written consent of Iveco Group is strictly forbidden. Also on today's call are Iveco Group's CEO, Gerrit Marx; and the Group CFO, Francesco Tanzi. They will use the material made available for download on the Iveco Group website early this morning, including commentary on the presentation in the form of note pages.

Additionally, please note that any forward-looking statements we might make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement included in the presentation material. Additional information pertaining to factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's prospectus published on the 11 November, 2021 as well as other recent reports and filings with the authorities in the Netherlands in Italy. The company presentation may include certain non-IFRS financial measures. Additional information, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures is included in the presentation material.

I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Gerrit Marx.

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Thanks, Federico, and welcome to all of you joining our call today. Before I start, let me just say that we are very saddened by the unfortunate events in Turkey and Syria. Our colleagues and partners are safe and we are in constant contact with them. We have deployed our network and resources to help and we are coordinating with local organizations to ensure that our aid reaches the affected populations directly and effectively.

Moving on to our results. 2022 was our year 1. And as you can see in the chart, we call it our Foundational Year 1. Iveco Group began trading as an independent company on the 3rd of January last year. And from there, many unexpected and challenging things have happened. At the beginning of our journey, there was some skepticism about our ability to accomplish and deliver what we've promised, including a positive cash flow. And since day 1, we have been absolutely aware that the only way we could change this perception was to deliver quarter-by-quarter everything promised, closing our first cycle despite the countless challenges we and our industry encountered in this first year, supply chain issues entailing various component shortages, raw material and energy price hikes, and unfortunately, the very sad beginning of the war in Ukraine.

Iveco Group is an agile, nimble and lean company, carried by an amazing and humble team, characteristics that allowed us to react promptly to the challenges I just mentioned and enabled us to conclude our first year with results above market expectations. During the year, through our quarterly earnings releases and on other occasions, we always reiterated how free cash flow generation and margin expansion have been and will remain our guiding star, while we make the required investments into our future jointly with long-term partners.

What our teams delivered this year is certainly a helpful starting point, and this focus will further evolve in 2023 and the years to come. Our 6 independent business units are each and individually pursuing their transformations in markets that keep changing at an accelerated pace. We are strongly committed to providing them an optimal path to compete and to succeed in their respective industries in order to challenge their relevant benchmarks. To achieve this, we will review and tailor mutually beneficial partnerships for the long-term, which will eventually and innovatively transform Iveco Group as a whole, progressing through the year ahead and beyond.

Growing in parallel with support, our 5-year strategic business plan presented back in November 2021 is a long-distance cross-country run. We have just run the first kilometers at a good pace despite the very different weather conditions we initially expected. Now we are prepared and excited that 2023, our transformational year 2, will be another even faster-paced hilly section to prove a maturing group with greater clarity, marginality and optionality.

We are not a static business, but rather we are always on the move with new energy to compete fairly and collaborate to win. Our journey provides ample opportunities for humble fighters, fearless creators and hungry team players contributing their diverse strength. It was certainly a first exciting year, and that's thanks to all the people working in Iveco Group. I've always said that people are at the center of who we are and what we accomplish. And I would like to thank once again everyone working at and for Iveco Group for going beyond the obvious every day. Bear in mind, this is just the beginning.

The moment in our -- the momentum in our -- let's move on. I'm on Slide 4 now and the full year executive summary. As I just mentioned, we have concluded our first year as an independent company with solid results. Profitability improvements were driven by higher volume and mix and positive price realization, all of which have more than offset higher production costs on Group level. Consolidated revenues came in at EUR 14.4 billion, up 13.5% versus last year with an adjusted operating margin at 3.7%.

Our Industrial Activities adjusted EBIT margin was also up 60 bps to 3%. The full year adjusted diluted EPS was $0.78 per share -- per common share, negatively impacted by high financial charges related to higher interest rates and hyperinflation, as explained already in our last call. Our order books, as you can see on the slide, have remained solid with between 30 to 35 weeks of production already sold in light, medium and heavy-duty trucks. We ended the year with a net industrial cash position of EUR 1.7 billion, which was up from EUR 1.1 billion at the end of 2021.

The free cash flow was positive at EUR 690 million, a figure that includes 2 one-off items related to the fleet depletion, which started in August 2022 on the back of improved component availability or predictability versus the first half of the year. The other one-off item was the sale of a plant in Australia. And those 2 one-off items together accounted for around EUR 160 million cash. Excluding these 2 items, our full year free cash flow was positive at EUR 530 million.

As I said in my opening remarks, cash will remain on top -- a top-of-mind priority this year and each year that follows. As you read in our press release this morning, the Board of Directors intends to recommend to shareholders the first share buyback program to repurchase up to 10 million common shares for a total amount of up to EUR 130 million, subject to market and business conditions to also serve the company's long-term incentive plan. The proposal is subject to the approval of the company's general meeting of shareholders to be held on the 14th of April, 2023 later this year. The program will be funded by the company's liquidity. Details of the program will be disclosed in accordance with applicable laws and regulations.

On Slides 5 and 6, we have highlighted Iveco Group's main achievements reached in Q4 and in the first month of 2023. I will not go through each of them. I'm sure you all have already read our news and related press releases. I would just like to say that all our functions and brands work hard to deliver their many accomplishments. In recent months, we signed several important agreements and received orders for alternative propulsion products, which confirm our competitiveness in this new era of our industry.

We will double down on our efforts to enter long-term partnerships and maintain the positive trend in medium and heavy-duty trucks, outpace in our core lines for light commercial vehicles, further evolve our leading position in the bus market, particularly with our electric range and re-grow our powertrain business quarter-after-quarter and continue innovating our financial services offering around GATE, the all-inclusive pay-per-use fintech rental venture. We will achieve these targets with the support of technological advancements and strong loyal partners aligned with our unwavering commitment to advance a more sustainable society.

Moving on to Slide 7, we show the total industry volume percentage change versus the full year 2021. As you can see in Europe, excluding the U.K. and Ireland, light-duty trucks ended the year down 18%, mainly driven by lower sales of campers and lack of component availability, particularly in the first half of the year. Medium and heavy ended the year up 5% and buses down 5% versus the previous year. Latin America industry volumes were broadly flattish in trucks and up double-digits in buses. On a worldwide basis, the market was negative in light-duty trucks and slightly positive when looking at medium and heavy-duty trucks and buses.

The next slide, #8, has our recurring quarterly update on channel inventory statistics. Company inventories were sequentially lower both in light-duty trucks and medium and heavy, down 40% and 17% versus the third quarter 2022 respectively, reflecting solid seasonal delivery levels in the last quarter of the year. Dealer inventories finished the year higher than at the end of December 2021 and thereafter serving strong order backlogs. We slightly under-produced about 2% retail in light-duty trucks in line with the previous year, while we over-produced retail by 21% in medium and heavy.

Let's move on to the next slide with order intake and delivery statistics at the end of the year. Deliveries were up 9% versus full year 2021 on a worldwide basis and were up across segments. Europe and the Rest of the World were up 8% respectively and South America was up 18%. When looking at order intake level, it was down versus full year 2021, mainly because of extraordinary high level orders at the end of last year due to post-pandemic dynamics. Our continuous efforts to manage the order books and preserve relative profitability on the back of a very solid and historically high order backlog also contributed. If we look at book-to-bill, it was higher than 1 across segments even if we not adjust for the unfinished products, which we call fleet delivered in the second half of the year, demonstrating that orders remain solid in support of deliveries for the months to come.

In conclusion, 2022 was characterized by a series of challenges, particularly in the first part of the year that strongly affected the ability of the various OEMs to produce and deliver their products on time, resulting in still rather long order backlogs at between 30 to 35 weeks of production already sold. Our objective is to continue lowering them to a more healthy level of 15 to 20 weeks over time during 2023.

The next slide shows our market share performance in Europe, excluding the U.K. and Ireland in our light-duty truck segment and in medium and heavy. Starting with light-duty, our performance in the fourth quarter was solid, ending with a 15.7% market share in the segment, defined between 3.5 and 7.49 tonnes. This was up about 130 basis points versus the fourth quarter of 2021. We further solidified our market share in the cab-chassis sub-segment, ending the quarter at 31.1%, up 310 basis points versus fourth quarter of 2021 and confirmed our historical leadership in the upper end of the light-duty segment between 6 and 7.5 tonnes with market shares at 60%.

Moving to the medium and heavy segment, our fourth quarter performance recovered with market shares up across sub-segments after an initial slowdown due to supply chain and component shortages. In heavy-duty, we ended the quarter with a market share up 60 bps versus the fourth quarter of 2021 to 8.7%. And in medium and heavy combined, up 30 bps to 9.3% versus the same period last year.

In heavy gas, we ended the quarter at almost 60% of market share, returning to the level registered in the fourth quarter of 2020. All LNG heavy trucks, we follow in real-time from our digital control room, are back on the road hauling for their owners as gas prices declined. And we continue to see good interest levels in our CNG technology across all ranges as its CO2 neutrality when running on renewable methane, provides a superior total cost of ownership compared to the early versions of electric vehicles whose actual CO2 neutrality only shows when also running on renewable energies.

In conclusion, considering the solid order backlogs and the exit velocity of 2022, our expectation is to keep similar momentum going into the first half of 2023 with the ultimate objective to maintain and further solidify our leadership position in light-duty trucks with the all-new electric daily about to be delivered and continue to improve our market share in heavy-duty trucks on the back of the success models years broadly as 2019 and 2022 of the S-WAY, which was just introduced in Latin America as well.

By the end of 2023, we will launch the model year 2024 for all ranges, which will include not only the S-WAY -- then the S-WAY will not only include the mandatory ADAS Level 2 functionality and improved driver-centric features, but also our all-new Cursor 13 engine with substantial fuel consumption improvements. Needless to say, this engine will be capable of running on gaseous fuels such as natural gas and hydrogen as well.

I will now hand the call over to Francesco, who will take you through the full year financial highlights, after which I will then conclude with final remarks.

[Francesco Tanzi, executive]

Thank you, Gerrit, and good morning to all participants on this call. I'm on Slide 12 with our financial highlights for the year ending 31st of December, 2022. We ended the year with consolidated revenues at EUR 14.4 billion, up 13.5% versus the previous year. Financial Services net revenues were at EUR 281 million, up EUR 86 million or 44.1% versus full year 2021. Net revenues from Industrial Activities were at EUR 14.2 billion, up 13.1% versus the previous year, mainly due to higher volumes and positive price realization.

Consolidated adjusted EBIT was at EUR 527 million, up EUR 157 million versus last year with the adjusted EBIT margin in 3.7%. The Industrial Activities adjusted EBIT was EUR 424 million, up EUR 122 million versus last year with positive price realization, higher volumes and a better mix, more than offsetting higher raw material and energy costs. The Industrial Activities adjusted EBIT margin was at 3%, up 60 basis points versus the full year 2021.

We ended the year with our adjusted net income at EUR 225 million, up EUR 85 million comparing to last year. The adjusted net income figure excludes a negative impact in connection with our operation in Russia and Ukraine due to the impairment of certain assets, spin-off costs, a negative impact from the first-time adoption of the hyper-inflationary accounting in Turkey and the gains on the final step of the restructuring of the Chinese joint ventures.

The adjusted net income also excludes the effect booked in Q4 2022 deriving from the gains on the disposal of certain fixed assets in Australia as well as from the loss of the impairment of certain R&D costs and other assets, primarily related to the bus business as a consequence of the acceleration in the emission-related technological transition. Total adjustment impacting profit before income taxes were at EUR 61 million for the full year 2022 and a net zero in Q4.

The adjusted diluted earnings per share was at $0.78, up $0.35 comparing to the full year 2021. Financial expenses were EUR 206 million versus the EUR 150 million in 2021, mainly due to higher interest base rates combined with the hyperinflation impacts in Argentina and Turkey. The adjusted effective tax rate was at 30% coming from 47% in full year 2021 and 32% at September year-to-date. The adjusted effective tax rate reflects different tax rate applied in the jurisdiction where the Group operates and some other discrete items.

Industrial free cash flow was positive EUR 690 million for the year, an improvement of EUR 815 million versus last year, primarily due to the solid operating performance and working capital improvement. I will talk about our performance with more details later in the presentation. Our net industrial cash position was EUR 1.7 billion at the end of December 2022, up from EUR 1.1 billion at the end of December 2021. Finally, the available liquidity, including undrawn committed credit lines, was at EUR 4.4 billion at the end of the year.

On the next slide, and I'm on Slide 13 now, our full year industrial net revenue split by region and segment as well as walk versus full year 2021. Looking at the split by region and segment, as you can see on the left side of the chart, all regions were positive versus the previous year with a particular solid performance in South America, which saw revenues up almost 60%.

Moving to the revenue split by segment, all our industrial segments were up by double-digit, except for powertrain, which was up 6% versus the previous year. As a reminder, '22 was the last year where the comparison with the previous year for powertrain was negatively affected by the discontinuation of the Stellantis Ducato contract, which implied a tough comparison throughout July 2022 as our supply to Stellantis was only concluded at the end of July 2021. Regarding the contributors of the increase in net revenues, as you can derive from the graph on the right hand of the slide, volume and mix and gross pricing positively contributed to improvement at a similar magnitude.

Moving on to the Industrial Activities adjusted EBIT walk by segment and driver, and now I'm on Slide 14. Positive volume and mix and net price realization were the drivers of the improvement in profitability. More specifically, the net price realization alone was able to more than offset the higher production cost, which was particularly negative throughout the year, registering an increase of EUR 584 million compared to the last year.

The adjusted EBIT margin ended the year at 3%, up 60 basis points versus last year. Important to highlight is certainly the performance of the industrial businesses in the fourth quarter that finished with a margin of 4.3%, up 300 basis points versus the same period of last year with the commercial and specialty vehicle margin up 220 basis points to 4.3% and powertrain up 260 basis points to 5.8% versus fourth quarter 2021.

Looking at the performance of each segment for the year, the commercial and specialty vehicle adjusted EBIT was EUR 450 million, a EUR 161 million increase comparing to 2021, driven by positive price realization and higher volumes more than offsetting higher production cost, mainly due to the increased raw material and energy costs. The adjusted EBIT margin was 3.4%.

In powertrain, the adjusted EBIT was EUR 187 million, down EUR 21 million comparing to the 2021, mainly due to the unfavorable volume, negatively affected by the Stellantis Ducato contract discontinuation, as I mentioned before, but also a tough heavy-duty truck market in China and higher raw material and energy costs, partially offset by positive price realization. The adjusted EBIT margin was at 4.7%, which we consider now the turning point for FPT margin.

The next slide, #15, deals with our financial service performance. The adjusted EBIT was EUR 103 million for the full year, a EUR 29 million increase comparing to 2021, primarily due to higher receivable portfolio and better collection performance on managed receivable. Considering within this result are also some release of funding, totaling EUR 12 million, which occurred in Q3 2022 and were related to customers that were able to recover solidly scheduled payments. We do not expect to repeat this in 2023.

The Iveco Group managed portfolio, including unconsolidated joint venture, was EUR 6.8 billion at the end of the year, of which retail was 41% and wholesale 59%, up EUR 1.4 billion comparing to the end of 2021. The receivable balance greater than 30 days past due as a percentage of the on-book portfolio was 2.4%, down 150 basis points versus 31st of December, 2021 and down 40 basis points from Q3 2022. The Financial Services return on assets remained solid at 2.3%, up from 1.8% in the first quarter last year. Equity stands at EUR 768 million.

Moving on Slide 16 with our industrial net cash walk and relative focus on main dynamics. As Gerrit said and I mentioned during my financial highlights, the full year free cash flow, if adjusted by 2 specific one-off items deriving from the gains on the disposal of certain fixed assets in Australia booked in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the positive effect of the unfinished product deliveries during the second part of the year would have been at EUR 530 million.

Let's have a look at the various components of the walk and related performance versus the same period last year. The adjusted EBITDA contribution was positive at EUR 109 million comparing to last year on the back of a solid profitability performance. Working capital cash inflows was at EUR 505 million comparing to a cash outflows of EUR 303 million last year, mainly driven by lower cash outflow from inventories and higher cash inflows from trade payables.

On the bottom right side of the slide, we show our free cash flow performance by quarter. As we reiterated several times during the year, our free cash flow seasonality caused the first 3 quarters to be cash consumptive with seasonal cash absorption in the first and third quarter, normal condition allowing [indiscernible] in second quarter and the usual strong fourth quarter cash generation.

Our expectation for 2023 is to be more in line with such seasonality supported by improved component availability versus 2022. However, the overall cash generation in 2023 is expected at a level which is about half of the full year 2022, mainly due to a higher level of investment in the completion of launch of our MY24 line-up and the absence of certainty on additional positive one-off effect.

Moving now to my last slide for today, which our available liquidity components and the debt maturity profiles are shown. Our available liquidity at the end of December 2022 was at EUR 4.4 billion and includes EUR 2.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $2 billion of undrawn committed facilities. As you can see, our cash and cash equivalents levels more than cover all the cash maturities for the upcoming years, totaling EUR 822 million.

This basically concludes my remarks on the financials, and I will now turn it back to Gerrit for his final remarks.

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Thank you, Francesco. Let's conclude with the preliminary industry and financial outlook as well as with some final takeaway messages.

Our preliminary industry outlook -- volume outlook for 2023 is broadly in line with what was already disclosed by some of our peers that released their financials before us. The percentages change year-over-year by segment and region, shown in the table, reflect our current visibility. We have to maintain a certain level of prudence at the moment, but we are somewhat optimistic that in front of us is another solid year, similar to 2022 in terms of final demand, and this is reflected in the preliminary outlook.

The next slide, #20, has our full year 2023 preliminary financial outlook. As per my comments related to our preliminary industry outlook, the same is valid for our current preliminary financial outlook. We need to maintain a certain level of prudence, especially with regards to the second half of the year. Based on the current industry outlook, solid order backlogs and no signs of unusual levels of order cancellations, the company is expecting at a consolidated level, a Group adjusted EBIT at between EUR 550 million and EUR 590 million.

And for the Industrial Activities, net revenues, including currency effects, to be up between 2% and 3%. Adjusted EBIT from Industrial Activities at between EUR 460 million and EUR 500 million. SG&A over net revenues at around 6%. Net cash, excluding any share buyback or extraordinary transaction, at around EUR 2 billion. And investments in property, plant and equipment and intangible assets up between 10% and 15% from EUR 775 million in full year '22, mainly due to the energy transition and model year '24 launches across all ranges.

In conclusion, let me summarize the messages we gave today in our presentation, providing some final takeaway points. First, our current outlook related to both industry and our preliminary financials for full year 2023 call for a certain level of prudence due to our expectation that some challenges in supply chain, at least in the near-term, are expected to continue and that industry dynamics in the second half of the year will be impacted by as yet unclear macroeconomic developments.

Second, our 6 industrial businesses are each and individually in transition and under transformation, and we are strongly committed to providing them with the optimal paths and partnerships to compete in their respective industries. Third, our continuous effort to manage our order books and preserve relative profitability will certainly continue as well as a tight control over cash. Fourth, we are committed to maintaining a solid available liquidity level, allowing us to further increase our efforts towards investing in our new energy future.

Finally, as I pointed out in my opening remarks, our Year 2 has just started and we are all aware that the hard work must continue tirelessly. We are all focused and strongly committed to continue pursuing the profitability path embedded in our 5 year strategic business plan and we are ready to react promptly to all the challenges and seize the opportunities we encounter along our way. Our team's quality and our dedication make the difference.

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we can now open it up for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs.

[Daniela Costa, analyst]

I have 3, but they are all quick. The first one is in terms of like looking at your '23 guidance. Can you tell us what sort of pricing environment do you bake into it? What's the carryover from this year? And also, what are you doing on order pricing now? Then also regarding the assumptions regarding your EBIT for 2023. What do you have implicitly for your heavy-duty business? I believe last year it was close to breakeven. What's the 2023 outlook there? And the final one, just on the CapEx that you now guide specifically for 2023. I just want to make sure, is that is part of the included CapEx you had already in your '22 to '26 guidance, right, or is it incremental? Just would be good to hear on those.

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Starting from your third question, yes, the CapEx was in the plan. This is not an addition. It's just highlighting the fact that this is now a year of higher spending in light of very crucial product launches that will in the heavy-duty truck segment now close the very final gaps to the very best in our category of heavy-duty trucks in Europe. So it was included, it was planned. And just to highlight this for you.

On the EBIT 2023 related to heavy, last year, we approached breakeven. We will -- we are very confident that we're going to reach the breakeven in the current year 2023, which is embedded in the numbers. And regarding the pricing assumptions for 2023, what we have embedded is basically the prices realized and implemented up to today and that is sitting in our taken order book. We have not foreseen any further price increases at this stage. We need to carefully observe the market.

We feel quite confident about the first half of 2023 also in light of the order books collected. And we took a very cautious view on the second half of the year where when material costs and energy costs and other elements are declining, I do expect the pricing to be a bit more of a heated subject in the second half of the year. And we need to see how this will unfold when this upcomes, but we feel pretty confident as we manage the way up, we will certainly also manage a second half that might become a bit more challenging as costs are coming down, preserving or maybe even expanding the margins that we have.

[Operator]

We will take now our next question from Monica Bosio from ISP.

[Monica Bosio, analyst]

The first one is on the guidance for the full year. I fully understand that you are taking some prudence on the second half, but does this mean that the second half could be negative in terms of volumes or if you can give any flavor on this, because I'm expecting pricing up mid-single-digit, high-single-digit? And if you can clarify on the volumes, I would really appreciate and also on the ForEx? And another question is related to the free cash flow side. I was wondering if the free cash flow in the last quarter of the year accounted some advances from the defense vehicle segment? And if yes, if you can quantify this?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

No, the fourth quarter has no advances from the defense business. This is just ordinary course of business. FX is flat assumed throughout the year. So there's no -- I mean, no assumptions. And I do see in the second half -- I don't see, but I expect in the second half of the year rather pricing to be under scrutiny. I mean, yes, we have a good carryover of pricing from last year, you're correct, for the full year. I do see that as well and you can see it in how we guide. But I think in the second half of the year, again, it's too early to call it guidance. It's an outlook. But in the second half of the year, in this outlook, we would expect that pricing is a bit more difficult in light of declining costs, okay, declining energy costs or commodity costs. Hence, marginality is there to be defended, if not expanded, but it might come in an environment where prices are under pressure, okay? And volumes, I would consider to be certainly stable. And I don't see any significant swing there in the second half. So that's what the prudence it be.

[Monica Bosio, analyst]

And if I may, a final question on the electric buses segment. How do you see the prospects ahead? It seems to me that you are gaining contracts on this side. And I just was wondering if we can expect further news flow on this side.

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Well, let's say, I do expect further news flow from my bus head as well, yes. So -- and I do expect more good news to come, obviously, because we have one big tender, which is a clear sign of competitiveness of the vehicle, the services around the vehicle, the life and the usability of the battery and simply the whole package, because a cheap bus, nobody can afford. You need to have the best total cost of ownership in a full package, and that's what we offer and that's why we win.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Martino De Ambroggi from Equita SIM.

[Martino De Ambroggi, analyst]

My first question is on the free cash flow, the extra performance you had in Q4. Could you quantify the amount of factoring at year end and in absolute value? And what was last year, just to understand if there was a big change? And still on free cash flow, but in 2023, what should we expect in terms of net working capital generation?

The second question is on the guidance, because when you presented the business plan, you guided for 4%, 5% adjusted return on sales for Industrial Activities in '24, which probably in percentage terms is not anymore valid because of price increases and so on, but translated into absolute figures was EUR 750 million. So my question is, based on the current environment, clearly, it's more difficult in the second half, but are you still confident on this range? And probably, can we move in the mid high end of this range as visibility today?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

I feel good about the range, the 4% to 5% EBIT in 2024. Let's see how the second half of this year will unfold and I reply that question then later in the year I think on the higher or the lower end of it. We need to carefully observe again what's happening in the second half and what run rate this is going to provide us for the following '24. But we are clearly standing by our commitments on shareholder return and marginality of the Industrial Activities.

For your first set of questions, Francesco will take it.

[Francesco Tanzi, executive]

For the factoring question, we are talking about -- as we have also reiterated during the previous quarter, we are talking about rolling 12% of the full year Industrial Activities net revenues, and this is basically an average for the full year 2022. For what is concerning the working capital in 2023, we basically assume a level which is slightly equal to the one that we have this year. We do not see any major difference comparing to what we observed during 2022.

[Martino De Ambroggi, analyst]

If I may, just one more question on the -- in your initial remarks, Gerrit, you mentioned, we had optionality. What you are referring to, if I may? And I didn't see any news on Hyundai agreements and benefits and so on. So probably they are later on, so not in the next couple of years, the benefits?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Well, look, the Hyundai partnership is a very long-term profound partnership along many different segments and parts of our business around electrification, around light commercial vehicles, et cetera, as we announced. And this is not a speed dating. This is something really -- it's a long-term relationship here. And these projects will unfold and will be explained and communicated and properly funded over the course of 2023 and '24 to come. So that is developing quite well. So from that end, I'm not too -- I'm actually quite very positive what we will share with you over the next 24 months on this partnership, what we can build and co-create together.

[Martino De Ambroggi, analyst]

And common purchasing, which was one of the potential areas of collaboration, nothing happened so far.

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Well, common purchasing is something that you do in these types of partnerships. And it's underway and it's under preparation.

[Martino De Ambroggi, analyst]

And on the optionality that you mentioned?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Well, optionality is what I like a lot because we are -- as I mentioned, we have -- as a Group, we are under transformation as well as the individual business units are under transformation. And we are looking at ways to drive these businesses in an accretive way into their full potential and the optionality that comes with the cash on balance sheet is certainly helpful. But we also -- and I can say that, and over time, we will be more clear, but we will also look into ways to lower the financial charges, as you have seen in our walk or in the walk from EBIT down to net income. And we might deploy certain cash also here to substantially lower our financial charges over the course of the next 12 to 24 months. So we look into this optionality. What we will do in the end, we will explain over the year. But I'm pretty confident that we will find a good place for that money to earn a good return for you and for us.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of José Asumendi from JPMorgan.

[Jose Asumendi, analyst]

Congratulations on the result and that price discipline has come through the P&L. Just a couple of questions. Gerrit, can you speak a little bit around the peak to trough margin potential you see within commercial and specialty vehicles? What are you excited about to improve margins sequentially from here? And then second, very simple one. Coming back to CapEx, can you maybe -- I think I missed the figure. If you could please quantify the step-up in CapEx on absolute levels between 2022 and 2023, maintain a net cash at EUR 2 billion?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Look, on peak to trough in commercial vehicles, it's really a business of -- it's 4 businesses. It's light, medium, heavy and bus. So that's what you need to consider and dissect. But in the current -- on the past year, the 2022 was obviously severely impacted by its contractually for contractual terms, delayed ability to forward cost and price, which comes with the nature of tenders. So this is something that we expect to now in the current year '23 to further improve. And the bus business is in a good mid-single-digit territory right now, which is I think from what I've seen so far from other competitors, it's the most profitable bus business in Europe.

When you look at the light commercial vehicle business, we have done tremendous pricing efforts here. And we've pushed customers -- we have pushed prices and customers kept buying this product which clearly leads in this segment because of its versatility and ways of applying it to the various different missions. And here, we see a good path towards a high-single-digit EBIT over the next 24 months in the light. The medium duty business is a small segment. It's stagnant. And here, we're defending a good solid position. And we are quite confident that this is to be defended. And on the heavy-duty, as I alluded to in the prepared remarks, we have -- we will reach breakeven in the year 2023 and it will further advance from there. So I think, as I said, we are on a good path to given the Industrial Activities, in that business, a 4% to 5% EBIT by 2024. So on a good path.

And for the CapEx question, Francesco?

[Francesco Tanzi, executive]

On the CapEx, we see that in 2022 we have basically EUR 770 million, more or less. So if you're talking about the increasing for 2023, you can start from this number.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Michael Jacks from Bank of America.

[Michael Jacks, analyst]

Congrats on a really impressive Q4 results. If I could please just go back on the financial expense line item, where do you expect this to land in 2023? And can you perhaps just give us an idea of what the proportional split was in Q4 in relation to factoring hyperinflation and interest costs? That's I guess 2 questions in one. And then just second question in terms of the LCV segment. Can you give us a sense for how dealer inventories there are shaping in Q1? It seems like they were fairly elevated at the end of the quarter. And finally then just on FPT. Could you perhaps just give a little bit more color on how you see the year developing there in terms of the phasing in of new contracts?

[Francesco Tanzi, executive]

So I will start from the first one on the financial expenses. Let me say that if you are taking, I mean, rough estimation of what we are expecting in 2023, you can keep the -- basically Q3 and Q4 cost as an average -- jointly as an average and multiply by 4 and you get something that is probably the best rough estimation for 2023. For what is concerning Q4, certainly, the Q4 was the quarter majorly affected by the financial charges also in specific relation to the effects in Argentina and the hyperinflation accounting for that. So this is basically the amount that are impacting Q4. And if you consider that this amount globally are counting more than 40% of the total amount of the interest expenses for the Q4 itself.

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

And on the light commercial vehicle segment inventories, this is -- it's largely sold inventory. It is -- was pushed in Q4 following a fleet build -- sorry, building a fleet, I mean, because of semiconductor choppiness in supply chain. So I can only reiterate, this is not over. It still keeps coming at a lower frequency and here and there at a lower severity, but the volatility in the semiconductor supply chain remains. And that happened in the fourth quarter. And with that, we built a bit of light inventory, which we pushed in Q4. And then this is what you can see in the dealer inventory, but this is largely all sold inventory.

And when you look at the used dailies, we are not providing the data to you, but our inventories for the used light commercial vehicles is close to zero. We are at like 300, 400 units in the network. The units that are coming in, immediately sell out again. So that's really a high turn business at this time in conjunction with the pricings realized here, as I commented earlier, it's a good segment.

On FPT's development throughout 2023, you've seen that the fourth quarter was already a year-over-year step-up; quarter 4 '24 -- sorry, quarter 4 '22 versus '21. And we expect the business to further step-up quarter-by-quarter, year-over-year. So in the fourth quarter, it was a step-up of about EUR 34 million as reported I think. And we'll continue to do that trajectory over the course of the running year.

It's, as we said, the start of a turning point for the business. We have collected a lot of new contracts, backfilling the discontinued Fiat or Stellantis contract for the Ducato. And we are ramping and launching these engines in the light -- predominantly in the light segment -- the light engine segment. We did it already last year. We continue to do so this year. So volumes will pick up over the course of the next 12, 24 months. So that is on track.

[Michael Jacks, analyst]

If I could just ask one more quick question. CNHI recently spoke about some political headwinds in Brazil. There seems also to have been some level of pre-buy effect ahead of the new regulations there. Does your market outlook encapsulate both of these factors? I can understand that your forecasting process is probably order book-led. But yes, just to get a sense for what you're thinking in terms of the development there?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Yes, it is obviously reflected in the way how we look at the market. But please bear in mind, Brazil or Latin America overall is a build-to-stock market, while Europe is a build-to-order. So in Latin America, all manufacturers are basically calling the market, producing accordingly and managing the channel inventory in a build-to-stock way. And we have anticipated what is coming and which is probably for some of the segments rather flattish or slight -- as I guided, slightly downward trend in the market. And this was reflected in how we manage the production and inventory.

[Operator]

Our last question comes from the line of François Robillard from Intermonte.

[François Robillard, analyst]

First one is let me just come back quickly on the volume guidance for next year. So do you still expect a positive pricing? From what I understood, just back of the envelope, it means that we might see some volume softness concentrated in the second half of the year. Is that correct to think that way? First question. Second question is on your share buyback plan that you announced today. Does that mean that you will not consider initiating a dividend policy going forward? That's my second question. And my third question is on the Iveco Defense business. So what's next for this division? How does it -- how is it included in your guidance? If you can give some color on that?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

So in reverse order, on the defense, what's next? Next is growth. And the business has more than 2.5 years of trailing 12 months revenues as an order book. And the business for, let's say, unfortunate circumstances is growing in all its segments. And that's it, it will grow profitably. On the share buyback, we are not considering a dividend in 2023 for 2022. But we already announced and we said that at the Capital Markets Day that there is a dividend policy for the following years in line with the good practices that are also applied by other Exor companies.

On the volume guidance, as I said, given that I think order books are quite solid for everyone in this industry for the first half. I expect the first half to be stronger in volume than the second half, in terms of relative year-over-year comparison I mean, given the uncertainty we have -- we see in the second half around volume. But we need to see how volume price will actually play. We do have a good carryover effect from pricing actions done so far in our order book into 2023.

I do not expect further significant price increases throughout 2023 as we are facing a decline in commodity prices, most likely in this scenario. And as then commodity prices start to decline, price increases at similar orders of magnitude are rather unlikely to happen for the second half of the year. So this is what I can tell you. So price volume second half. We need to see how the competitive dynamics will play out and also how the commodity prices will develop, which will be probably one of the key drivers when it comes to price realization.

[Operator]

The final question comes from the line of Miguel Borrega from BNP Paribas Exane.

[Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega, analyst]

Just 2 questions. The first one, I wanted a little bit more clearance on your guidance for 2% to 3% revenue growth. How do you get to those numbers exactly, because you're now taking orders for Q3, soon to be sold out for 2023? You've been saying that you've got pricing carryover, at least the remaining 50% of the price increases that you've already implemented coming in the first half. Your volume outlook for the market is flat to 5% in the medium-duty and even higher than that in the light-duty. So I don't really understand the 2% to 3% growth or I understand your cautiousness in the second half, but both pricing and volume doesn't stack to only 2% to 3%.

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

As I said, we take a cautious view on how the year will go. And the first half is certainly above those 2% to 3%. And we were very cautious to predict at this point -- not predict, to give an outlook at the second half of the year. Hence, the mix gives us the 2% to 3% top-line.

[Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega, analyst]

And then secondly, for -- your guidance kind of implies around 30 to 40 basis points of margin expansion for the industrial division in 2023. You already confirmed the 4% to 5% in 2024. So it seems there's a big step-up or a bigger step-up in 2024 than 2023. And my question is, what is there in 2024 that is not in 2023? Or in other words, isn't the price cost spread much more favorable in 2023 than 2024 as you see it now?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Well, we -- there are a couple of things. I mean, we are renewing our entire vehicle line-up with the model year '24. And while this might only sound like a number, in terms of what we actually do in the vehicles, it's way more than this. These vehicles, if you take as an example, just the heavy-duty truck, we started this journey in 2019 in a place where we left it with the old Stralis product, the heavy-duty truck, which gave us a market share, which was even shy of 4% at times. And we have re-grown now to the market shares you see in the documents. And we have improved this vehicle in its quality, functionality, driver centricity.

And now with the all new Cursor engine, we are going to provide a high-single-digit fuel advantage to customers, which is overall, putting this vehicle among the very best in the TCO of the heavy-duty truck industry. So this product change to a model year '24, coming end of this year, only showing in '24 because we will not register any model years '24 and '23 is just an example of what we expect to see in 2024 as a helpful support of our financial ambitions.

What we need to factor in as well for the year 2024 is how and at what marginality electric vehicles are going to come into our P&L. We expect that to be in line with what we forecasted before. This could be more, this could be less. We need to see how this electric segment really unfolds because despite what everybody says about electric trucks or whatever they sell is these are very, very low volumes that you see there and the price is realized and also the cost underneath are nowhere close to what a fully steady-state business is. And hence, there is for 2024, on the uncertainty side, clearly, the marginality around electric vehicles can go both ways, we need to see. So that's a bit of color on 2024.

[Operator]

That will conclude the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Federico Donati for any additional or closing remarks.

[Federico Donati, executive]

Thank you very much everyone to participate in today's call. Thank you. Have a nice day.

[Operator]

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect your lines.