Iveco Group NV

MIL:IVG

Earnings Call Analysis

Robust Financial Performance Despite Delivery Dip

In the third quarter, deliveries slid by 8% year-over-year due to a deliberate strategy to reduce production already sold, preserving profitability ahead of launching the Model Year 2024 lineup. Although truck intake was also designingly down, the company maintained a strong historical order backlog. European bus deliveries rose by 18%. Revenue grew about 7% to EUR 3.8 billion, driven by pricing and mix improvements. Adjusted EBIT doubled to EUR 213 million with margins swelling to 5.7%, reflecting effective price discipline amid cost inflation. The adjusted net income also climbed to EUR 84 million. However, free cash flow was negatively impacted, showing an absorption of EUR 375 million, EUR 143 million more than last year due to high working capital demands.

Strategic Adjustments and Market Presence

The company has been realigning its production to meet market expectations set for 2024, crafting a strategy that considers the upcoming launch of the Model Year 2024 lineup. Order intake for their trucks was intentionally reduced in Q3 2023 to manage a historically high order backlog and maintain profitability, as they believed this strategy would allow for disciplined pricing and the preservation of profit margins.

Product Innovation and Orders

A key highlight is the company's leadership in alternative propulsion technologies; they particularly excel in bio-CNG and bio-LNG technologies, which is evident from the healthy order intake of their eDAILY model, affirming the market's interest in their innovative approach with over 1,600 firm orders by the end of September.

Financial Performance Metrics

Financial standing appears strong with a solid 7% increase in consolidated revenues year-over-year, totaling EUR 3.8 billion. This was buoyed primarily by improved gross pricing and a positive product mix which offset negative volume trends. Consequently, the adjusted EBIT margin saw a 310 basis point increase to 4.9%, aligning with the higher end of the range projected for 2024. The powertrain segment also reported a marked improvement, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 5.6%, up by 180 basis points from the previous year, while financial services recorded a slight dip.

Forward-Looking Statements and Guidance

The company expresses confidence in its fourth-quarter cash generation despite challenges like bodybuilder bottlenecks. Moreover, they reported a robust liquidity position with EUR 3.5 billion available as of September 30th, 2023, overshadowing future cash maturities totaling EUR 1 billion. Additionally, they have increased their full-year 2023 guidance, with group-adjusted EBIT now expected to range between EUR 870 million and EUR 900 million, uplifted from EUR 750 million to EUR 800 million. Similarly, adjusted EBIT from industrial activities has been revised upwards to EUR 770 million to EUR 800 million, feeding into an optimistic outlook for the launch of Model Year 2024.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's Iveco Group 2023 Third Quarter Results Conference Call and Webcast. We would like to remind you that today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Federico Donati, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

[Federico Donati, executive]

Thank you, Sergey. Good morning, everyone. We would like to welcome you to the webcast and conference call for Iveco Group third quarter and September year-to-date financial results for the period ending 30th September 2023.This call is being broadcast live on our website and is copyrighted by Iveco Group. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this broadcast without the expressed written consent of Iveco Group is strictly prohibited.Also on the call are Iveco Group CEO, Gerrit Marx and me, Federico Donati, Head of Investor Relations, standing in for the financial section, usually covered by our CFO. As we are in a transitional period before Anna Tanganelli assumes the role of Chief Financial Officer on 1st December 2023.We will use the material made available for download on the Iveco Group website earlier this morning. Additionally, please note that any forward-looking statement we might be making during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement included in the presentation material.Additional information pertaining to factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent annual report as well as other recent reports filing with the authorities in the Netherlands and Italy. The company presentation may include certain non-EU IFRS financial measures. Additional information, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable EU-IFRS financial measures is included in the presentation material.I will now turn the call over to Gerrit.

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Thanks, Federico, and welcome to all of you joining our call today. Our third quarter ended with consistent profitability improvements across segments and continued strong pricing contribution, although we shut down our plants for several weeks during the summer break, impacting seasonally our quarterly earnings as in prior quarters -- prior years.We are not experiencing any unusual increase in order cancellations, while delinquencies on book for less than 30 days were confirmed at 2.3%, which is 50 bps better than last year. We are proceeding with the completion of our unfinished products and delivery of our order backlog.Notwithstanding some bodybuilder capacity bottlenecks that are slowing down the timing of deliveries to customers, hence, invoicing activities on retail and wholesale levels. I will provide more color and granularity on this during the presentation when we go through our usual slide on channel inventories.Supply chain is still not perfect, but much more predictable when compared -- much more predictable when compared to the start of the year, as we anticipated in our previous earning call. Seasonal free cash flow absorption was EUR 375 million compared to an absorption of EUR 232 million last year, mainly driven by around EUR 200 million higher inventories of finished goods linked to the already mentioned capacity bottleneck at bodybuilders and the lower level of trade payables.Federico will provide more details later in the presentation, also highlighting the delta performance on a year-over-year basis.Our heavy-duty truck segment is maintaining its profitability level on a standalone basis, continuing its path to mid-single-digit EBIT margins midterm. And our light-duty truck segment ended the quarter with double-digit EBIT margins as in prior quarters.Looking at the Iveco Group financial performance in the third quarter of 2023, our consolidated revenues were up almost 7%, and the consolidated adjusted EBIT margin was at 5.7%, up 280 bps versus the same period last year. Our adjusted diluted EPS was at EUR 0.28 at the end of the quarter, which is more than double that of the third quarter 2022.As already widely anticipated and described in previous earnings calls and during sell and buy-side interactions, our goal to decrease the number of weeks of production sold and forcing a tight order discipline and price discipline as well as preparing for the order opening of Model Year 2024 is proceeding apace with order backlog at around 25 weeks of production already sold for light commercial vehicles and around 20 weeks for medium and heavy trucks at the end of September.We ended the quarter with industrial net cash at EUR 725 million, mainly firmly maintaining our full year target at around EUR 2 billion, including, as you already have seen in the press release this morning, increased investments now up 20% versus the previous year on the back of accelerated investments into our new energy future.Lastly, our share buyback program is continuing, as you have probably seen from our periodic updates. During the period from April 14 to October 16, 2023, about 5.2 million of Iveco Group's common shares were bought back for a total net consideration of about EUR 43 million. A large portion of these shares are being deployed to our long-term management incentive program, aligning incentives with long-term shareholder value creation.On the next slide, we have highlighted Iveco Group's third quarter and most recent main achievements. All of these items and related press releases are already public. So I will draw your attention to just a few of the key achievements with a few comments. I'll happily give you more color during our Q&A sessions, of course.Our powertrain business unit unveiled our new Cursor 16-liter engine, purpose-built to provide high-end agriculture machinery with increased power and torque, higher efficiency and lower fuel consumption. In September, in our IVECO BUS R&D center in Venissieux, France, we inaugurated our new E-BENCH, a testing and validation facility unique in Europe for large-sized electric and hydrogen propulsion vehicles.Our financial services announced a partnership with Eurowag, a leading provider of integrated mobility solutions for commercial fleets in Europe. The goal is to offer commercial and industrial vehicle operators integrated payment solutions based on digital technologies, an important addition to the comprehensive set of services for our customers.Another highlight was our prominent presence at Busworld trade show held in Brussels. We shared our vision of carbon-free mobility showcasing our complete zero-emission product offer, latest battery technology, and comprehensive range of advanced services. This was also the occasion to unveil the brand-new electric E-WAY Hydrogen, together with Hyundai Motor Company, our first hydrogen-powered Hyundai fuel cell electric bus, another concrete result of the partnership between our 2 companies. And there's more to come as we kick off 2024, which we will share during our Capital Markets Day in March next year.Also at Busworld, we began the rollout of our new Iveco branding refresh as a clear sign that we have turned the page as Iveco Group for the future with the prior logo design dating back to 1978. All our dynamic brands continue to drive change in their industries with purpose and customer-centric innovations. The new board black lettering gives Iveco IVECO BUS and IVECO CAPITAL, a fresh visual identity and then energy blue flash of light in the center reflects our passion and commitment.All our products and facilities will now be branded with these new logos in a very cost-conscious way, including our full range of model year 2024 vans and trucks that will be officially launched in only 2 weeks from now.Moving on to Slide 5. We show the total industry volume percentage change versus Q3 2022. As you can see, Europe, excluding the U.K. and Ireland, was up double digit in the truck segment with light-duty trucks ending the quarter up 16%, while medium and heavy were up 29%. For buses, the industry in Europe was up 25% versus the previous year.Latin America, industry volumes were double digit, down in both truck segments and up 16% in buses. On a worldwide basis, the market was positive double-digit across segments.The next slide, #6, has our recurring quarterly update on channel inventory statistics. Company inventories were sequentially up, both in light-duty trucks and medium duty and heavy duty, up 6% and 9%, respectively, reflecting to a meaningful extent our popular and higher-margin chassis versions awaiting finishing by bodybuilders before being invoiced to end customers.To provide you with some more color around the body-build activity and the percentage of vehicles subject to it, let me give you a few high-level numbers. Iveco delivers the chassis to bodybuilders directly through dealers, directly all through dealers, who finish the vehicle with a purpose-made superstructure. This activity is needed for 70% to 80% of the sales for the light range, 100% for medium and 40% to 50% for our heavy-duty truck sales.This is common activity in the industry, and it is the current bottleneck now that the supply chain issues are largely resolved and product output has returned to a more normal level. We expect the situation to level out between the fourth quarter this year and the first quarter next year, allowing us to finally deliver the products currently held up for bodybuilder activity to customers.As you can see from the takeaway message at the bottom of the slide, more than 80% of the actual dealer inventory and 75% of company inventory across segments are already sold to customers.Finally, looking at production activity versus retail, we overproduced retail sales, both in light duty trucks and in medium and heavy by 7% and 9%, respectively, responding to our still long order books. Production level was already down sequentially, both in light duty truck and in medium and heavy by 24% and 16%, respectively.We are going to steer our Iveco Group towards lower inventory levels by year-end and aligning production pace with our market expectation for 2024 for a strong start of our entire Model Year 2024 lineup.Let's move on to the next slide with order intake and delivery statistics as of the end of the third quarter. Deliveries were down 8% on a worldwide basis versus the third quarter 2022 with both truck segments and buses down versus last year. Europe was flat with light duty trucks down 7%; and medium and heavy up 13% versus third quarter 2022. Bus deliveries in Europe were up 18%.When looking at order intake level for trucks, it was down by design versus the third quarter 2022, mainly on the back of continuous efforts to purposely lower weeks of production already sold through a tight price discipline to preserve profitability on the back of a very solid and historically high order backlog and in anticipation of the launch of our Model Year 2024 across segments later this month for which we have not yet opened our order books. As a result of this effort, worldwide total book-to-bill truck and bus was at 0.73 at the end of the quarter.The next slide shows our market share performance in Europe, excluding the U.K. and Ireland, in our light duty truck segment and in medium and in heavy. Starting with light duty, we ended the quarter solidly at 13.5% market share in the 3.5 to 7.49 tonne segment. We preserved our market share leadership in the Cab-Chassis subsegment, ending the quarter at 31.1% and maintained our historical leadership in the upper end of the light duty, 6 to 7.5 tonne segment, with market shares at around 60%.In heavy duty, we ended the quarter with a market share up 40 bps versus the third quarter 2022 to 7.5%. And in medium and heavy combined, up 40 bps as well, to 8.2% versus the same period last year. In heavy gas, we ended the quarter at 48.2% of market share, confirming our historical leadership in this subsegment.We observed constructive and promising discussions in Brussels around the future role of renewable fuels, cutting greenhouse gas emissions, among which also, especially bio-CNG and bio-LNG propulsion technologies are at the forefront and a current reality far ahead and more mature than many electric powertrain options.In conclusion, our eDAILY is continuing to perform well with more than 1,600 firm orders already received as of the end of September.I will now hand the call over to Federico, who will take you through our third quarter financial highlights, after which I will conclude with final remarks.

[Federico Donati, executive]

Thank you, Gerrit. I'm on Slide 10 with our financial highlights. We ended the quarter with consolidated revenues at EUR 3.8 billion, up almost 7% versus the previous year. Financial services net revenues were EUR 127 million, up EUR 54 million compared to Q3 2022. Net revenues from industrial activities were at EUR 3.7 billion, up almost 6% versus the previous year, mainly due to positive price realization and better mix.Consolidated adjusted EBIT was at EUR 213 million, up EUR 112 million or up 2x versus last year with the adjusted EBIT margin of 5.7%, up 280 basis points versus Q3 2022. The industrial activity adjusted EBIT was EUR 180 million, up EUR 116 million versus last year, reflecting a continued strong price inflation during the quarter. The industrial activity adjusted EBIT margin was at 4.9%, up 310 basis points versus Q3 2022.We ended the quarter with our consolidated adjusted net income at EUR 84 million, up EUR 54 million compared to the same period last year. The relative adjusted diluted EPS was at EUR 0.28, up EUR 0.18 compared to Q3 2022. And just for your reference and clarity, in the slide, we report, as usual, the amount of adjusted net income attributable to Iveco Group. This was at EUR 76 million and excludes the profit attributable to noncontrolling interest.Financial expenses were EUR 97 million, slightly higher than in Q2 2023, with the full year expectation now slightly above EUR 300 million, mainly due to higher interest base rates combined with hyperinflation impact in Argentina and Turkey. For further clarity, more than 2/3 of the full year expected financial expenses level refers to cash items, while the remaining is related to noncash items for hyperinflation.The adjusted effective tax rate was at 28%, in line with first and second quarter 2023. The adjusted effective tax rate reflects different tax rates applied in the jurisdiction where the group operates and some other discrete items.Industrial activities, free cash flow absorption was at EUR 375 million, EUR 143 million higher compared to Q3 2022, primarily due to higher working capital absorption, partially offset by higher profitability level. I will talk about our performance in more detail later in the presentation.Our industrial net cash position was at EUR 725 million at the end of September 2023, EUR 164 million higher than 1 year ago. Finally, available liquidity, including undrawn committed credit lines remained solid at EUR 3.5 billion at the end of September 2023.On the next slide, our third quarter industrial net revenue split by region and segment as well as a walk versus Q3 2022. Looking at the split by region and segment. As you can see on the left side of the chart, all regions were up versus last year, except for South America.Moving to the revenue split by segment. All our industrial segments were up versus the previous year with specialty vehicles up almost 30% versus last year. When we look at the contributors of the increase in net revenues, as you can derive from the graph on the right hand of the slide, the major contributor for the performance was gross pricing, while positive mix has more than offset negative volumes.Now moving on to the industrial activity adjusted EBIT walk by segment and driver. As previously highlighted, net price realization was the main driver of the improvement in profitability with the lower stands product mix more than offsetting the negative track and bus worldwide volumes.The net price realization alone was positive for EUR 376 million, more than offsetting higher production costs, increased R&D spending as well as negative ForEx translation effect. The negative EUR 142 million related to ForEx and other in commercial and specialty vehicle refers for its majority ForEx translation effect impact.The adjusted EBIT margin ended the quarter at 4.9%, up 310 basis points versus the same period last year. It pays to reach the upper end of our EBIT monthly range projected for 2024 when we had our first spin-off Investor Day in November 2021.Looking at the performance of each segment for the quarter. The commercial and specialty vehicles adjusted EBIT was EUR 197 million, a EUR 119 million increase compared to Q3 2022, driven by positive price realization and partially offset by higher product costs as well as SG&A and R&D spending. The adjusted EBIT margin was at 6.2%, up 360 basis points versus Q3 2022.As already mentioned by Gerrit in his opening remarks, our heavy-duty trucks on a standalone basis confirms its recovery path, ending a typical seasonally weak quarter with another positive adjusted EBIT level.The new Model Year '24 heavy-duty truck will deliver at least high single-digit or even double-digit fuel efficiency improvements in certain configuration, supporting this recovery path over the time with stronger margin from 2025 onwards.Important to mention is our light-duty truck performance. On a standalone basis, it ended the quarter, again, with an adjusted EBIT margin north of 10%. In powertrain, the adjusted EBIT was at EUR 53 million, up EUR 19 million compared to Q3 2022, mainly driven by positive price realization more than offsetting increased raw material and energy costs.The adjusted EBIT margin was at 5.6%, up 180 basis points versus the same period last year, which is perfectly in line with our already disclosed ambition to improve marginality for the segment by at least 100 bps per year.The next slide, #13, deals with our third quarter financial services performance. The adjusted EBIT was at EUR 33 million, slightly down compared to Q3 2022, primarily due to higher SG&A costs related to the creation of and scaling of GATE, our just launched pay-per-use platform for electric trucks and vans.The Iveco Group managed portfolio, including unconsolidated joint venture was EUR 7.1 billion at the end of the quarter, of which retail was 40% and wholesale 60%, up EUR 1.3 billion compared to 30th September 2022. The receivable balance greater than 30 days past due as a percentage of the on-book portfolio was 2.3% versus 2.8% as of 30th September last year. Looking at our return on assets on the upper right hand of the slide, it remained solid at 2.3%, in line with Q2 2023.Moving on with our industrial net cash walk and related focus on main dynamics. Let's have a look at the various components of the working related performance versus the same period last year. As you can see, the main driver of the higher cash absorption versus last year was the negative working capital.The adjusted EBITDA contribution was positive at EUR 387 million, up EUR 130 million compared to last year. Working capital cash outflow was at EUR 579 million compared to a cash outflow of EUR 231 million last year.When looking at the components of the change in working capital on the bottom left hand of the slide, you can see that the majority drivers were higher inventory levels, mainly due to already explained bodybuilder bottleneck.Last year, inventory level was also positively impacted by the company effort to lower much higher relative levels of unfinished products. Higher payable absorption versus last year was due to an average 10% lower production level across the truck segment.Investments were up EUR 21 million versus the third quarter last year, considering our accelerating efforts in investing in the new energy future. As usual, on the bottom right of the slide, we show our free cash flow performance by quarter for your reference.In conclusion, our seasonally sound fourth quarter cash generation is confirmed, notwithstanding bodybuilder bottlenecks that will affect our truck delivery timing tariff.Moving now to my last slide for today, which shows our available liquidity components and the debt maturity profile. Our available liquidity as of 30th September 2023 stood at EUR 3.5 billion. This includes EUR 1.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents and EUR 2 billion of undrawn committed facilities. As you can see, our cash and cash equivalent levels continue to more than cover all the cash maturities for the coming years, totaling EUR 1 billion.This concludes my remarks on the financials, and I will now turn it back to Gerrit for his final remarks.

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Thank you, Federico. Let's conclude with the industry and financial outlook as well as some final takeaway messages. Our industry volume outlook for 2023 on a worldwide basis slightly improved across segments to reflect a higher European industry in medium and heavy-duty trucks and in buses and the stronger South American industry for buses. The percentage changes year-over-year by segment and region shown in the table reflect our current visibility.The next slide, #18, has our full year 2023 financial guidance. With a solid price realization evolving order backlog, still no signs of unusual levels of order cancellations and consistent year-to-date results, the company is raising its full year 2023 guidance again as below.Group adjusted EBIT increased at between EUR 870 million and EUR 900 million from the previous EUR 750 million and EUR 800 million. For industrial activities, net revenues, including currency effects, increased up between 8% and 9% from the previous 5% and 8%.Adjusted EBIT from industrial activities increased at between EUR 770 million and EUR 800 million from the previous EUR 650 million and EUR 700 million. SG&A over net revenues confirmed at around 6%. Industrial at cash, including transactions already communicated and related impacts and the full year share buybacks at around EUR 2 billion, still excluding any additional extraordinary transactions.Investments in property, plant and equipment and intangible assets increased up about 20% from EUR 775 million in full year 2022, mainly due to our accelerating efforts in investing in the energy transition. The Model Year 2024 launch across all ranges and the consolidation of the investments that can be capitalized in relation to the transactions already announced.In conclusion, let me summarize the messages we gave today in our presentation, providing some takeaway messages. First, upgraded guidance considers the fourth quarter profitability level similar to the level of the previous year.Fourth quarter last year was extraordinarily impacted by high volume levels on the back of the company effort to lower unfinished product levels carried over from the third quarter 2022, which will not repeat in Q4 this year as well as an already solid contribution from positive pricing.Second, orders are coming in with still solid pricing, and we are not seeing any signs of potential increases in cancellations. In mid-November, we will launch our Model Year 2024 across segments and contextually will open order books for these new models in a few weeks.Third, we will continue our efforts to manage our order books and preserve profitability as well as further reinforce our control over cash in preparation for the launch of our Model Year 2024 full range.Furthermore, now that the supply chain issues are largely resolved and all product output is back to a normal level, the speed of invoices is attributed to the bodybuilder bottlenecks that need to run after historically high level of orders. In this regard, for the remaining part of the year, we are planning to adjust production levels to facilitate a decrease in inventories caused by bodybuilder bottlenecks and to deplete over the course of the fourth quarter 2023 and first quarter 2024, the related inventory.Fourth, our commitment to maintain a sound level of available liquidity is intact. And together with cash generation, will continue to be our north star in the years to come. And fifth, as already anticipated during our second quarter analyst call, we are planning to host a Capital Markets Day in 2024. We have now identified the date and location, the 14th of March in Turin, at our Industrial Village, close to our headquarters.During the event, all our business unit presidents will present their respective portion of the strategic business plan for the next years, providing granular information on our individual segments, particularly within the Commercial and Specialty Vehicles segment. At that time, you will receive segment-dedicated insights and ambitions into our truck, bus, and defense business units. More information about the event will follow for the moment. Those of you who are interested in listening or participating in the event, please save the date on your calendar, March 14.I'll conclude now, before opening up for questions. Looking at the actual year-to-date figures and the upgraded guidance for the year, the second year as an independent company is ending with consistent results, supported by positive price realization and an unwavering commitment to improving our products and the efficiency of our processes, notwithstanding various challenges encountered and faced during the year.As we have already mentioned several times before, Iveco Group's journey is comparable to a long-distance cross-country run, and we have just started. We are all committed and focused on continuing to deliver what we have promised and to go beyond.Just to address any potential questions about next year's industry level and any commentary about pricing dynamics, we have read and listened to what peers have stated -- started to provide in regards to their expectations for heavy-duty trucks at European level for next year.As you all know, we usually provide preliminary industry guidance during our full year earnings call, but we can say that we converge at the same very preliminary indication as sketched by other market participants. Having said that, I think it is important to highlight that heavy-duty truck accounts for only around 30% of our Iveco Group's top line in total, given that our group supplies, various on-road industries, which have diverse demand levels. Next year, we will certainly leverage this diversification to maintain a healthy profitability, continuing on our path to move Iveco Group in the right direction, both in terms of margin improvements and resilience as well as competitive product offering.Finally, I remind you once again that in a couple of weeks, we are going to launch our Model Year 2024 full range of vans and trucks with best-in-class powertrains and our all-new Cursor [ XE ] 13 combustion engine, which will provide the targeted boost to keep pace with our growth strategy.This concludes our prepared remarks, and we can now open up for questions. To be mindful of the time, we kindly ask you to hold off on any detailed modeling and accounting questions on which you can follow-up directly with Federico and the Investor Relations teams after the call, as always.Operator, please go ahead.

[Operator]

We will now take our first question from Daniela Costa from Goldam Sachs.

[Unknown Analyst]

It's [ Mohia Antiono ] on this line. I've got 2, and we can take them in turn. So you alluded to this, but I was just wondering if you could provide an update on any pricing actions expected for 2024, especially as you launch the Model Year 2024 truck? And as well, if you could provide an update on the fire truck process as well?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Yes, of course. Look, the Model Year 2024, if I take the heavy-duty truck, for example, which is the one that gets upgraded the most with its new powertrain is confirmed to deliver high single-digit and some applications, even double-digit fuel efficiency improvement over its prior brother. And with that, obviously, there is a pricing opportunity coming along because this is a massive total cost of ownership benefit, but not only because of that, the truck is significantly upgraded in the cab in the multi-dimension digital systems that we have now upgraded there. And with all this packaging, we do see pricing for new upgraded functionality and better TCO products also next year, and that is certainly going to materialize for our Model Year lineup in 2024.On the fire engine or the firefight, the Magirus, the firefighting business unit, we are progressing as per the plan. We are in intense discussions with multiple interested parties. We have recently also enlarged the group by, let's say, popular demand also to funds who see a certain development opportunity with Magirus in partnership with us as this is a very interesting rollout play in the firefighting industry as they are. It's a highly granular and highly segmented, fragmented industry, and we believe that with sufficient, let's say, strategic alignment roll-up in this segment is quite interesting and attractive. So we are processing according to plan. But as I mentioned in prior calls, this is going to last at least until the first or the second quarter next year in order to find a good place and a good new setup for Magirus as it is saving lives and serving heroes.

[Operator]

We will now take our next question from Monica Bosio from Intesa Sanpaolo.

[Monica Bosio, analyst]

We have all heard the comments of the -- your competitors on the heavy-duty truck volume scenario on 2024. Pricing, on the other side, seems to -- that it's holding up. But I was wondering if you can give us more color on the light commercial vehicles, which is your playing field there, one of your playing field in terms of volumes and pricing, if you may? And if you are expecting some tailwinds on the raw material side in 2024 that could help the margins?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Thank you for your question. Yes, we do confirm on heavy duty, a lighter market, a softer market as our other market participants did like around 15%, 20% or so lighter than this year, which is a normalization actually because I think as one other colleague of mine said it's basically the replacement demand we have in Europe. So this is just a normalization of the heavy duty side overall.Well, on the light commercial vehicle volumes are still -- they're not still, they are pretty good. They have kept on tracking on a level, and we would expect for ourselves to see similar levels next year, as we see it in this year, given that the segments where we play, continue to have a strong demand. And it's a widespread range of applications that we satisfy, we provide with our light commercial vehicle, which is a good diversification inside that vehicle as well. So that is holding up well, and we are quite happy with that.On the tailwind side, look, it's difficult to speculate around tailwinds from raw material. We have reentered into a phase with the tragedy and the terrible situation around the Middle East now or in the Jerusalem, Gaza area, Israel, Gaza area. That means we will need to see how this will play over -- out over the next couple of months, weeks, months and what impact that will leave on the overall energy sector and the supply of energy to the world. So I would be remain cautious. At this point, we do consider a, let's say, favorable environment on the raw material price side for next year, yet we need to watch very carefully what happens on the energy side with respect to the -- still the geopolitical conflict, including the most recent one in the world we live in.

[Monica Bosio, analyst]

If I may, a follow-up, a further question. The company is going to open the order book for the Model Year for the light commercial vehicles and later in the year for the heavy duty. What do you expect a major impact from the new Model Year in terms of revenues and margins? I can imagine it will not be in the first part of the year and maybe more -- it will be more backend loaded, is it correct?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

That is correct. I mean in commercial vehicles, it's unfortunately different than from passenger cars where you're almost, let's say, launch a new model year on a single day. In commercial vehicles, we have so many versions and variants that the Model Year '24 for the heavy duty truck, the rollout across all different versions will take us about 9 months. So the full impact of the Model Year '24 upgrade will be seen in the fourth quarter next year and certainly in the following year 2025.While in the first 3 quarters of next year, we have a mix of model year '22 and '24 depending on the various vehicle variants. And this cutover goes quicker for the light commercial vehicle. This is probably a cutover rather in the neighborhood of, let's say, 4 to 6 months, while on the heavy it's 9 months. Yes. But you're right, it will start to show in the second half of next year.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Martino De Ambroggi of Equita.

[Martino De Ambroggi, analyst]

And my first question is on the medium heavy trucks. You commented, Gerrit, during your remarks, some figures was provided, but may I ask you the precise contribution in terms of sales and profit in Q3? And I clearly understand it's too early for my second question on 2024. But since you are exceeding the adjusted EBIT margin targeting in '24, it is anticipated in '23. So I'm not asking you the detailed guidance for next year, but do you believe to be able to confirm the adjusted EBITDA in absolute level or around '23 level because consensus is projecting EUR 100 million lower adjusted EBITDA?And if I remember correctly, in your business plan presentation before the spin-off, you guided for free cash flow in 2024 in the region of EUR 300 million. And I was wondering if it's confirmed this figure. The last question is on the Hyundai. I know you already exchanged some products and some engines and so on. But I was wondering if your -- in your CMD, you will also have some additional benefit from Hyundai agreement, I mean, specifically in common purchasing and common platform, if any, I don't know. Just to have an idea what could be the magnitude of your agreement?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Thank you, Martino. That was a lot of questions. So let me try to remember them. So Q3 revenue EBIT or first percentages in medium and heavy. Look, I mean medium -- sorry, heavy is -- I mean, net sales -- I mean, in the third quarter, let's take around EUR 1 billion, more or less, probably more, a little more than EUR 1 billion. And it's slightly north of 3% EBIT. On the medium duty, it's around EUR 400 million, I would say, and it's actually in that quarter, it was actually double-digit EBIT in medium duty trucks. It is actually a quite good segment for us, the medium duty, by the way. So it's small, yes, but it's good.So your second question was about industrial activities, EBIT percent for next year. Look, we have exactly the Capital Markets Day next March, where we're going to go into these numbers in greater detail, but let me confirm or let me reassure you, I have no intentions to end next year below this year's EBIT margin that we have delivered, okay?And then you had a question on the 2024 cash flow for 20 -- from the last Investor Day, well, look, we will provide those details. But also here, there is no intention to be below the ambitions that we had communicated in 2021. And also at the Capital Markets Day, we will certainly provide more color on the various things that are coming to fruition with Hyundai Motors. And as they are still in the making, stay tuned, we will have quite some interesting stuff to show you. And for those of you who come in person to Turin, which I highly recommend, we might also have the one or the other thing for you to drive.

[Martino De Ambroggi, analyst]

Okay. Sorry, if I bother you, but common purchasing and common platforms that could be part of the agreement or are totally ruled out?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Well, look, when 2 OEMs talk, I mean, common purchasing and common platforms is always on the list. It would be quite unusual if it wasn't, right?

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Miguel Borrega from BNP Paribas Exane.

[Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega, analyst]

I'll take one by one. So the first one on the 2023 guidance kind of implies that the industrial margin will be sequentially flat or kind of down a little bit from Q3. I know what you said about year-on-year not having the benefit of last year, but it doesn't seem that the price/cost spread has gone down. So is there an element of you just being conservative on the 2023 guidance? Or is there something else?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

No. The guidance is a serious guidance. And the range we have provided is going to be covering the final lending point. So we have -- well, I've said that the marginality on industrial activities for the fourth quarter is around the level of last year's fourth quarter margin. So this is what I said.And cost price is still pretty favorable. But I also mentioned that we are slowing down production in the fourth quarter in order to allow us to drive inventories to the required levels in order to phase in our Model Year '24. So we have to kind of slow the engine before we accelerate again. That's the usual cutover in between 2 model years. And obviously, with that impact in this fourth quarter and the numbers will be on the margin level as well the EBIT percent of industrial activities will be around the level of last year's fourth quarter.

[Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega, analyst]

And thinking about your comments back in Q1 and Q2, I remember you were very concerned about pricing would deteriorate in the second half. Clearly, that hasn't been the case. So first, can you just explain why it hasn't? Why has the market been this strong? And do you remain concerned about the implicit pricing for 2024? And has anything changed recently? I'm not talking about the pricing that will come on top with your new model year, just the implied pricing in the market. Do you see that coming down in 2024?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Well, look, I'm not commenting on what's going on in terms of pricing. But my comments in the first and the second quarter was simply that when the market slows down 15% to 20%, in heavy duty trucks. What I'm now saying is entirely related to heavy duty trucks, which is just 30% of our business, yes. When the volumes come down, it's pretty natural that the orders book shorten. And with that, those who have to fill much larger industrial engines than we would certainly play on every lever, including pricing in order to get those volumes. That's my expectation.You're right. I was quite conservative on this so far. But I mean, if you look into the market and in, let's say, the one or the other segment where we do not participate, which are the super large tenders of very large volumes of trucks, we do see, observed, although we do not participate in this, never did, by the way. We do see that there is certainly a trend in downwards in terms of pricing. Yet that is not necessarily something concerning because costs have declined as well quite considerably. And so the question is not whether price comes down or not. The question is how do costs versus price evolve at the same point in time. So I was conservative, and I remain cautious in this regard. But for us, at this point in time, we feel quite confident to keep the levels on a like-for-like.

[Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega, analyst]

And then on order intake, can you give us some feedback from your customers? I know you are deliberately tacking the order book, but are they more cautious generally? Do you simply see less demand going into 2024? Is there an element also that pricing remains too elevated, do you think?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Well, I talk a lot to customers as my organization does. And some certainly use the argument and say, "Look, my own utility bill has gone down considerably by now." And last year -- this year, sorry, this year, I'm already mentally in next year already. But anyway, so also, "And we used obviously, pricing as a lever to offset that. So now my utility bill has come down. So why don't your pricing move accordingly?" So there are some customers who simply hold off. They have demand, but they just wait. That's clearly the case. Also vis-a-vis still quite considerably long order books. I mean if you have to wait still 20 weeks or 25 weeks for your heavy-duty truck, what's the point in making the order now if you are not desperately needing the vehicle but you have demand. So there's certainly that element in there. And we will see how the demand will regain momentum.In particular to -- related to Asia in Iveco and again, predominantly talking about the heavy-duty truck. The market is super eager to get their hands on our new S-Way coming out with the new Cursor engine that will deliver, as I said, high single-digit fuel consumption advantages and some versions even double digit. And so they are waiting to get their hands on that vehicle because that's a massive TCO advantage that they aim to put into their fleet. So it's a mix of both, right? So it's a new product with substantial upgrades versus a market that is now looking carefully at shortening order books and how pricing will evolve.

[Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega, analyst]

And then my last question, just on free cash flow. For you to get to the EUR 2 billion net cash, it kind of means EUR 1.3 billion free cash flow in Q4, even higher than Q4 of last year. You also say the issues from the bodybuilders are to be resolved both in Q4 and Q1 of next year. So do you see a risk of not meeting this free cash flow guidance? How much of this free cash flow guidance is dependent on resolving the issues of the bodybuilders?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Thanks, Miguel. But look, I commented only on the finished goods in terms of to be depleted as one source of our working capital, let's say, the inventory. We also have still a bit of fleet in there that will all come out and go down to basically normal levels in Q4. And we also have industrial inventory, which is everything before a finished vehicle and also those levels and offer us opportunity to further tighten and put things into the right place for entering into a strong start next year 2024. So there are multiple levers that we have in place, and we have addressed the EUR 2 billion of net cash by year-end quite firmly.

[Operator]

We will now move to our next question from Nicolai Kempf from Deutsche Bank.

[Nicolai Kempf, analyst]

Nikolai Kempf, speaking from Deutsche Bank. I have also 2, I will take them one by one. First one is on a new model lineup, which we appreciate. My only concern is that these things often cause a bit of production efficiencies. If you look at other trucks launching new models, it's often cause in a bit of a fraction in the production causing lower earnings. Would you see something similar happening to you?

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Look, the main upgrades are the engine. And I think inside the production facility, I mean, the assembly workers don't really care whether they have an old and/or new engine. So it's not really a different vehicle from an assembly point of view. We're just assembling different components in the same place. So therefore, the complexity is rather limited.I do see, let's say, when looking at second quarter, maybe next year, we do see that at that time, the cutover will be in full swing. So there might be some working capital situations there. But overall, this is something of temporary nature and pretty common. I mean we are used to this on a regular basis. So it's not business as usual, just to confirm what you said. But again, we are basically mounting a different component into the same place. We are not building a different vehicle.

[Nicolai Kempf, analyst]

Second one is on your defense business, which is [indiscernible] see a lot of tailwind currently. But the market doesn't really appreciate this business. It's probably a bit also hidden, but they do have -- it's quite possible and it's quite profitable. Is there a topic for the CMD? Or how will you try to make the segment more to a kind of to the end markets and to make this more dominant in the markets sweep, maybe appreciate that.

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

You're spot on, Nicolai. We will have the defense business reported and presented as a stand-alone business at the Capital Markets Day in March next year. And you will see a business that exceeds EUR 1 billion sales and has more than 4x of that in its order book. And it is unfortunately, for the reasons you mentioned geopolitical conflicts. And it is on a very steep growth trajectory, and I would concur with what you said that the markets haven't really appreciated that at all. So we will provide more -- way more granular details in March.

[Operator]

And we will now take our final question today from Alexander Virgo from Bank of America.

[Alexander Virgo, analyst]

I wondered, Gerrit, can you maybe just talk a little bit about the visibility that you have here? And I guess what I'm really getting at is we've -- your concerns and issues around the bodybuilders and their ability to deliver your obviously actively managing the backlog on transition to Model Year, et cetera. I appreciate all of that. It just makes me nervous that you don't actually have a proper understanding of what's going on in the underlying demand, underlying end markets. And I wondered if you could maybe just talk a little bit about what you've seen in the past with respect to how cycles develop. What gives you the confidence on light vehicle being flat, for example, when clearly, construction markets are going to be very weak next year again from this year? I'm just sort of -- the various indicators don't seem to support the confidence. Not you, particularly, but I think the broad OEM community seems to have a lot of confidence in demand, which doesn't feel like it's showing up in what we're seeing in the numbers. So I just wondered if you could talk a little bit about that.

[Gerrit Marx, executive]

Sure, Alexander. Look, on the bodybuilder side, to be clear, the bodybuilders don't sell the truck, okay? The truck is sold by our dealers or by ourselves. And so we have always, and at all times, together with our dealers, a direct touch on the market with the customers they're in. So it's not that the bodybuilders have the touch to the market, and we don't see things. We see things and the trucks are sold by us and our business partners. So, there is no lack of visibility or clarity, not at all. We know exactly what goes on in the market firsthand.The bodybuilders and the bottleneck that happened and why also other market participants have commented on that is, and by the way, we have seen this in our own bodybuilder business, Magirus firefighting is. And Magirus, again, Magirus purchases chassis from everyone else. So Magirus is buying chassis from MAN, Scania, Volvo, from everyone, even from Asia. And we have seen that, let's say, delivery reliability has been very, very bad in the industry for bodybuilders in the last 12 months. And then within a quarter or so, suddenly, things cleared up, and then there was a wave of deliveries coming to these bodybuilders.And those body builders actually are run with just-in-time processes. So for them, a truck chassis is a just-in-time supplier component on their end. And if you get suddenly jammed with chassis where you need to apply prework and everything that overwhelm them quite a bit. And I do expect them and we are actually, as an industry in dialogue with those bodybuilders to clear their bottleneck over the next 2 quarters. So also that is not a surprise and it just doesn't happen by itself. We sort of expected that also in the last quarter call that there is a bottleneck in the bodybuilders, and now it has started to shine. So we have absolute visibility on the end markets. And also the same for the DAILY. Again, we know every single customer, and we have our hands and eyes in the market directly and the bodybuilders are just a supplier of a very large component to some extent. Yes.

[Operator]

This concludes today's question-and-answer session today. And with this, I'd like to hand the call back over to Federico Donati for any additional or closing remarks.

[Federico Donati, executive]

Thank you, everyone, and have a nice day. Thank you. Bye-bye.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.