Intesa Sanpaolo SpA

MIL:ISP

Earnings Call Analysis

Record Profit and Strong Future Outlook

Intesa Sanpaolo reported its best-ever start to a year with a net income of €2.6 billion in Q1 2023. Earnings per share grew 21% annually, and the bank plans to distribute at least €7.3 billion to shareholders in 2024. Their net income is expected to exceed €8 billion in both 2023 and 2024. Operating costs were down 3%, and their cost/income ratio was the lowest ever at 38%. They highlighted strong growth in Wealth Management and Insurance income, significant tech investments, and a focus on increasing commissions going forward.

A Record-Breaking First Quarter

Intesa Sanpaolo announced an exceptional start to the year, marked by a net income of EUR 2.5 billion. This represents their highest quarterly net income since 2007. CEO Carlo Messina highlighted that this success is driven by robust increases in commissions and insurance income. Earnings per share went up by 21% year-over-year, signaling strong returns for shareholders. The bank's common equity Tier 1 ratio also increased to over 13.3%, reinforcing their financial stability.

Revenue and Margin Growth

Intesa Sanpaolo experienced their best quarter ever in terms of revenue, operating margin, and gross income. The cost/income ratio reached a historic low, indicating efficient cost management. Operating costs, excluding tech investments and contract renewals, decreased by 3%. Revenues and operating margins saw double-digit increases, and net income excluding industry levies reached EUR 2.6 billion. This solid performance sets a strong foundation for meeting their guidance of net income above EUR 8 billion for the current and next year.

Strong Performance in Wealth Management and Insurance

As a leader in Wealth Management, Protection & Advisory, Intesa Sanpaolo leveraged their fully-owned product factories to generate quick market synergies. Driven by state-of-the-art digital tools and 17,000 advisors, the company saw related commissions increase by over 40% year-over-year. Insurance income also exhibited double-digit growth. Diversification across commissions and insurance income contributed significantly to growing revenues. The bank’s tech transformation continued, with EUR 3 billion invested thus far.

Commitment to ESG and Sustainable Banking

The bank affirmed their commitment to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles. They have already invested EUR 400 million in social projects from a EUR 1.5 billion fund. Initiatives like promoting the circular economy and reducing emissions further underscore their mission to be the world’s number one impact bank. Chief Sustainability Officer appointments and substantial projects place Intesa Sanpaolo ahead of its ESG targets.

Future Outlook and Growth Strategies

Messina emphasized the bank’s conservative approach to profitability, affirming that net income expectations above EUR 8 billion do not include potential upside from the new organizational structure aimed at accelerating fee and commission growth. Revenue diversification, strong cost management, and well-executed acquisitions, like the UBI deal, position Intesa Sanpolo for continued success, ready to thrive in any interest rate environment. The bank plans to return at least EUR 7.3 billion to shareholders this year through dividends and buybacks, underscoring the commitment to rewarding investors.

Challenges and Competitive Landscape

Despite the stiff competition from government-backed securities like BTP Valore, Intesa Sanpaolo remains optimistic. The bank views these instruments as opportunities for future asset management growth once interest rates decline. With a robust client engagement strategy and a conservative increase in deposit rates, the management expects minimal disruption and significant potential for converting deposits into assets under management, maintaining their competitive edge in European banking.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Operator]

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the conference call of Intesa Sanpaolo for the Presentation of First Quarter 2021 Results hosted today by Mr. Carlo Messina, Chief Executive Officer. My name is Razia and I will be your coordinator for today's conference.At the end of the presentation there will be a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] I'll remind you that today's conference is being recorded.At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Carlo Messina, CEO. Sir, you may begin.

[Carlo Messina, executive]

Welcome to our first quarter results conference call. This is Carlo Messina, Chief Executive Officer and I'm here with Luca Bocca, our new CFO; Marco Delfrate and Andrea Tamagnini, Investor Relations Officers.We delivered the best ever start to the year with high quality results. Also, thanks to a strong acceleration in commissions and insurance income. Costs are firmly under control. While we are heavily investing in technology, asset quality remains excellent. EUR 2.3 billion net income was the best quarterly net income since 2007. Earnings per share grew 21% on a yearly basis. And in 2024, we will reward shareholders with a total distribution of at least EUR 7.3 billion, including the EUR 1.7 billion buyback in June.In the quarter, we increased the common equity ratio and we strengthened our 0 NPL status. We clearly [Technical Difficulty] additional distribution for this year and next will be evaluated year-by-year. Customer financial assets increased EUR 120 billion on a yearly basis and almost EUR 30 billion in Q1 to more than EUR 1.3 trillion.We are perfectly on track to [Technical Difficulty] above EUR 8 billion this year and next, easily and [Technical Difficulty] income above EUR 8 billion this year and next. We have a well-diversified business model that delivers in any interest rate environment, allowing us to take advantage of a rebound in Wealth Management when rates decline. Our tech transformation is moving quickly with EUR 3 billion already invested.Later in the presentation, we will provide the usual update on our strong ESG commitment. This is all about building a sustainable and profitable bank that can continue to be a leader in the future while delivering strong results in the short term. I'm proud of our results and thank our people for their hard work.Now let's turn to Slide 1 for the highlights of our first quarter. Slide #1; in a nutshell, we had the best ever start to the year. We delivered EUR 2.5 billion net income, when excluding the final contribution to the deposit guarantee scheme. Q1 was the best quarter ever for revenues, operating margin and gross income. The cost/income ratio was the lowest ever. NPL inflows and stock remained at historical lows and common equity ratio increased to more than 13.3%.Slide #2. In this slide, you can see the impressive and continuous growth of net income, up 18% on a yearly basis.Slide #3. We are delivering a significant increase in value creation and distribution with strong growth in dividend per share, [ earnings per share ] and tangible book value per share.Slide #4, we are a Wealth Management, Protection & Advisory leader, and we are ready to leverage on our fully owned product factories now under the responsibility of a single oversight unit, enabling quick time-to-market synergies and product customization. Our top-notch 360 degree advisory services supported by state-of-the-art digital tools. These services provided by Banca dei Territori and Private Banking are already delivering [ related ] commissions up over 40% year-on-year.Slide #5, our delivery machine is based on close to 17,000 private bankers, financial advisors and relationship managers for private, affluent and exclusive clients. We have strong internal potential with over EUR 870 billion in direct deposits and assets under administration, and we have identified EUR 100 billion that can be converted into assets under management, also thanks to declining rates.In April, we created an oversight unit consolidating the groups as well as the activities aimed at accelerating growth and increasing the integration of product factories. Furthermore, we created a fees and commission steering committee that I chair myself, focused on increasing commissions across all the group divisions. And let me add that we are already at work. When we see an opportunity or a problem emerging, we take action and we deliver. We have done it multiple times, and we will do again with this management -- Wealth Management [ group ].Slide #6, this record start to the year means that we are well on track to easily deliver net income above EUR 8 billion this year and next year.Slide #7, I'm very proud that our excellent and sustainable performance allow us to reward all our stakeholders. As you can see in the slide, our people, households, businesses and the public sector benefit from our increasing profitability. An increase in net income and so in cash distribution is also favoring an increase in tax revenues for the state and 40% of cash dividends go directly to households and to the foundation to support their charitable programs for local communities.Now let's move to Slide 9 and take a closer look at our results. Slide #9; net interest income was up over 20% [Technical Difficulty] basically stable quarterly when adjusting for the different number of days. Commissions accelerated and insurance income showed double-digit growth, both yearly and quarterly. Revenues increased double digit and operating margin 18%, on a yearly basis.Net income reached EUR 2.6 billion when excluding levies and other charges concerning the banking industry. This year, we booked the final contribution to the deposit guarantee scheme in Q1. And since the final contribution to the European Resolution Fund was booked last year, we do not foresee any significant additional contribution going forward.Slide #10, in this slide, you can see the strong yearly increase of net interest income, putting us well on track to deliver growth in 2024 versus 2023. Also, thanks to a higher contribution from core deposit hedging.Slide #11, net interest income growth on a yearly basis was driven by the spread component. On a quarterly basis, the decline is due to the different number of days in the 2 quarters and to a lower contribution from the financial component. Deposit beta continues to remain very low.Slide #12. Customer financial assets exceeded EUR 1.3 trillion, up almost EUR 120 billion yearly and EUR 30 billion in Q1, with significant growth in assets under management and assets under administration.Let's move to Slide 13. The Wealth Management and Protection businesses are a strong contributor to the Group's profitability. And in Q1, on [Technical Difficulty] interest rates, the contribution was 45% of gross income. Commissions are up 8% on a quarterly basis and the commissions related to management, dealing and consultancy activities are up double digits with no significant performance fees.Slide #14; Property & Casualty contribution is increasing, driven by the non-motor business [Technical Difficulty] to our best ever Q1 for insurance income. Let me add that we have significant upside potential due to the still low client base penetration of property and casualties when compared to other products. 100% fully owned product factories is a clear competitive advantage.Slide #15; the contribution of commissions and insurance income to revenues is over 40%, the highest in Europe after UBS. This thanks to our well-diversified business model.Please turn to Slide 16 for a focus on costs. In Q1, the cost/income ratio was 38%, the lowest ever, thanks to effective cost management. Operating costs were down 3% when excluding depreciation for tech investments and the impact of national contact renewal.In this slide -- Slide 17; in this slide, you have more detail on our costs. Administrative costs decreased by over 3% on a yearly basis.Slide #18; in this slide, you can see that Intesa Sanpaolo has the best cost/income ratio in Europe, well below the peer average.Let's move to Slide 19 for a focus on asset quality. NPL inflows and stock remain at historical lows. Also, Stage 2 loans decreased 16% year-on-year, down more than [Technical Difficulty] in Q1, thanks to the high quality of our loan portfolio and our strong capabilities in prevention activities. We are a bank with just EUR 5 billion net NPL and a 1% NPL ratio.Slide #20; NPL stock ratios are among the best in Europe after impressive de-risking.Slide #21; we are also very well positioned in Europe in terms of Stage 2 that represents only 8% of loans.Slide #22; our annualized cost of risk was 22 basis points with no overlays released. NPL coverage increased further even if we see no signs of asset quality deterioration.Let's move to Slide 23 for the usual update on Russia. Quarter after quarter, we keep reducing our Russia exposure, both cross-border and locally.So, let's move to Slide 24 for an update on capital. Slide 24, the common equity ratio increased by almost 20 basis points to over 13.3%; 14.7%, considering DTAs. Thanks to organic capital generation and after deducting the EUR 1.7 billion buyback and the EUR 1.6 billion accrued dividends.Now please turn to Slide 25. Capital ratio will increase this year and next, and we clearly have significant excess capital, allowing flexibility for additional distribution.Please turn to Slide 26 to see our sound liquidity position. Slide 26, we have best-in-class MREL ratios well above requirements. The 2024 funding plan is very manageable and half has already been executed.Slide 27, the liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio are well above our business plan targets, and we have a very diversified and sticky deposit base. The liquidity coverage ratio at the end of March was over 140% above the business plan target, even when considering the full reimbursement of the remaining TLTRO.Let's move to Slide 28 for more details on the liquidity position. Liquidity reserves remain very high despite TLTRO repayment, and cash with the ECB is much higher than the remaining TLTRO.Let's now move to Slide 29 for the usual update on our ESG actions. In this slide, you can see our strong progress toward the business plan ESG targets. And also here, we are ahead of schedule across nearly all of the projects. In April, we appointed a Chief Sustainability Officer, consolidating ESG activities.We have a massive program to address social needs and promote inclusion, with a contribution of EUR 1.5 billion. Of this, we have already deployed EUR 400 million. We remain committed to being the world's #1 impact bank.Let's move to Slide 30. In this slide, you can see other important ESG initiatives with impressive results achieved, such as EUR 47 billion in new lending to support the circular economy and green transition and a further reduction in financed emissions. At the end of this presentation, you can find additional slides on our social and climate initiatives and our leading ESG position in the main sustainability indexes and rankings.Please move to Slide 32 for the macro scenario. Slide 32; the Italian economy is strong, and I want to highlight that Italian corporates have significantly improved their deposit to loans position over the past years and that Italian GDP will continue to grow this year and next. For this year, I personally expect a growth between 0.7% and 1%.Slide #33; as you can see in this slide, Intesa Sanpaolo is far better equipped than its European peers. Thanks to our rock solid capital base and well-diversified business model, supported by significant tech investments.Slide 34; very important, in my opinion. In this slide, you can appreciate the unique positioning of Intesa Sanpaolo, thanks to our commission-driven and efficient business model, supported by strong tech investments. I think this slide tells a really important story that deserves more attention.Slide #35; this slide recaps how ISP is equipped to further succeed in the future. In fact, we are ready to succeed in any interest rate environment, as shown by this set of all-time high results.Slide #36; so to finish, let me turn to the outlook. In the second part of this year, our leadership in Wealth Management, Protection & Advisory will start to kick in. After delivering our best ever start to the year, we are well on track to deliver easily a net income above EUR 8 billion this year and next year. Our strong and sustainable performance allow us to strongly reward our shareholders, always a priority for ISP and me personally, while maintaining a rock solid capital position.This year, we will return at least EUR 7.3 billion, taking into account the [Technical Difficulty] the early June buyback and the interim dividend in November. Additional [Technical Difficulty] will be evaluated at the end of the year. I want to highlight that all our stakeholders will benefit from our performance.So, thank you for your attention, and now we are happy to answer to your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We are now going to proceed with our first question, and the questions come from the line of Azzurra Guelfi from Citi.

[Azzurra Guelfi, analyst]

Two questions from me. One is on your revenue, in particular, on fees and NII. The fee trend has been particularly strong, and I was a bit curious if you can tell us a little bit more about this fee and commission Steering Committee that you have put in place? And what are the main actions that you are thinking about? And what has already been implemented that we have seen as results in Q1?And on NII, the margin are still expanding despite volume contraction. So if you can comment a little bit about margin and Deposit beta this quarter, and how do you see it over the next couple of quarters?The second question is on capital. I'm not going to ask you how much do you expect to return in terms of excess capital. But if you can give us a little bit of color on the development of the risk-weighted asset, because the risk-weighted asset went up marginally on lending contraction. And if there is any additional regulatory headwinds that we have to consider between now and year-end?

[Carlo Messina, executive]

So, thank you Azzurra. So, looking at the revenues, it is clear that we are starting to demonstrate that Intesa Sanpaolo is a completely different bank in comparison with all the other European peers apart UBS. So, we are starting to get momentum on fee and commissions coming from Wealth Management, Protection & Advisory. And the main driver has been the growth in terms of gross inflows.So, my people started to move the total amount of inflows and gross inflows. So, as soon as our client has a capital gain position in mutual funds or insurance product or asset under administration, they are contacted by my people in order to understand if they are available to make a disposal of this kind of product to enter into another product.This has proven to be very success because we increased in comparison to last year by 20%, 30%, the total amount of these inflows. And this, as a consequence, you had an increase in terms of commissions. This is a trend that is continuing also in April. And it is one of the main action that we started with this strong focus that I'm now dedicated on organization in terms of fee and commissions.The other portion will be the area of transaction payment. This will be another area in which we want to accelerate. So my expectation is to be in a condition to have a double-digit growth in terms of Wealth Management, Protection & Advisory and Transaction Banking commissions, and especially on commission coming from insurance and protection business, also well above double-digit growth. So we are really concentrated on this point. All the organization is working on this target.We have already demonstrated in the last years to be able to deliver significant performance in terms of Wealth Management, Protection & Advisory. So the kind of results, in my view, are easily achievable. Obviously, if conditions will remain of a trend of a reduction in terms of net interest rate, because this is creating a condition of capital gain in the portfolio of our clients.We have client by client, the name of clients that can be contacted by our relationship managers. So this machine, in my view, is already working and really, pretty positive on this point. We have meeting on a monthly basis with the most important managers of the Group that are in charge of increasing commissions. But I think that also with this new reorganization, with the appointment of a Head of all the Wealth Management activities that in combination with the Head of Banca dei Territori and the Head of Corporate Investment Banking and also the Head of International Banking subsidiary, because also in this environment, we are accelerating the growth of commissions.We can deliver very good results for our shareholders, and believe me, I think that this can be really the most important driver that will differentiate Intesa Sanpaolo from all the other peers. At the same time, on net interest income, we are defending our leadership position in terms of net interest income. So, it is very limited the beta or the pass-through that we had in this quarter. At the same time, we increased the total amount of bonds in order to create also room to have contribution to net interest income from financial activities we made in the last part of March.So, having another sources of net interest income on our markdown, my expectation [Technical Difficulty] more or less in this condition. So our cost of funding on the short term can increase 0 basis points. In the worst-case scenario, 20 basis points, but no more than this. And this will allow us to maintain a significant growth in 2024 in comparison with 2023. So, my expectation is to remain also for this year, a strong contributor in terms of net interest income, but it is more deriving from market conditions.So what really I'm concentrated is on fee and commission because starting from 2025, we will be the unique bank that can really make a clear diversification. And so, through the hedging facilities, compensate reduction in net [ CapEx ] but maintaining a strong acceleration in terms of fee and commission. So, on revenues, I think that we are in a very good condition.Also, the property and casualty business is giving us very positive results. Penetration is still very low, and so we can [ focus ] in terms of penetration. So I'm fully committed to guarantee that our organization will move towards a clear and significant growth in terms of fee and commissions. To be in a condition to have 100% owned product factories is a unique condition in Europe, and so we will leverage on these to accelerate in this area.On capital, I think that our capital position will increase because this quarter we had this increase in market risk. And as I told you, the number of our bonds increased in order to create room to have further net interest income or in case of need to make trading income, but trading income are not strategic for us for the time being due to the fact that we have significant core revenues coming from fee and commissions in insurance and net interest income.But at the same time, the increase in volume has [ terminated ] in increase in terms of risk-weighted assets. But in terms of trend, our capital will increase, and so, we will remain with a room to evaluate further share buyback. You know that I'm not a super fan of the share buyback. So I think that now in the market, too much short-term attention and share buyback is something that you have to balance with the cash dividend that you are providing.So our cash dividend machine dividend remain there because our profitability is absolutely there. And also, if I can add Azzurra, so preventing other question that I will have during this conversation with the analyst also on outlook. I'm still conservative on outlook, but because we do not need to make the race of outlook with all the other banks, we are the incumbent in terms of value creation. We are probably the most sustainable bank in Europe. We are here to remain forever and not only for 2 years' time.So, I want to drive this organization in terms of quarter-by-quarter, delivering and then giving to the investors the clear opportunity. We do not need to increase the share price because we want to make some M&A deal, so to use the share just to make a transaction.So we are unique in terms of -- in the European landscape. We have already made our acquisitions with the best-in-class. And so in this sense, I think Intesa Sanpaolo is a clear, sustainable bank with sustainable results. And I can tell you that our outlook is really conservative for the reason related to fee and commissions mainly. But that's our opinion.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Delphine Lee from JPMorgan.

[Delphine Lee, analyst]

Thank you so much for your presentation. So, I've got 2 questions. So my first one is going back on net interest income, if you don't mind. Compared to the comments that you had provided with Q4 results, we're still seeing deposit beta being relatively low. Isn't your assumption of an increase in deposit costs of up to 20 basis points a bit conservative?I mean, what are you seeing in terms of the trends? And when do you think we also see a bit of a stabilization of the deposit base? And on fees and commissions, so the performance has been very strong indeed. Was just wondering if you think that the competition coming from BTP's placements are going to be less pronounced in the future or do you see an acceleration or do you think the retail ownership is already there or how should we think about basically that headwind for your asset management business?

[Carlo Messina, executive]

So, thank you for your questions. On net interest income, I can tell you that my expectation is not to have an increase of 20 basis points. So I think that looking as within the network, my expectation is that we can remain in the range of 10 basis points. So, in a sense, I don't think that we can have, in a scenario of reduction of interest rate, any kind of significant increase in terms of cost of deposits. So this means that also in terms of net interest income, we can have a very positive performance.It is clear that if interest rate will go down, we will have a reduction in terms of markdown, but we will have an acceleration in terms of hedging facilities. So, revenues coming from core hedging. So our expectation is that interest rate -- if interest rate, on average, we go in the range of 3.6%, we can have on a yearly basis only from core hedging, an increase of EUR 900 million. And in 2025, these interest rate will go on average on 2.6%, 2.7%, and we're going to have EUR 1.6 billion in terms of increase.So also in terms of net interest income, both looking at cost of deposits, both looking at the contribution from core hedging, we are, in my view, in a unique situation in the European landscape. But in any case, our figures of 20 basis points is conservative. I consider very likely there could be 10 basis points, the increase in terms of cost of deposits.In terms of fee and commissions, we had a movement from deposits into asset under management due to BTP Valore for an amount of EUR 15 billion in this 3 tranche of the BTP Valore. But for us, this is, in my view, a unique opportunity because the -- we are obviously monitoring client by clients, the May subscription of BTP Valore and as soon as this BTP can become capital gain positive with a reduction of the interest rate, we will contact the client in order to work with them for a better composition in terms of asset under management products. So I'm not worried of the competition of BTP.Also, we demonstrated this quarter that also in a condition of interest rate not [ insignificant ] that we can generate significant fee and commission, and especially in terms of BTP, in my view, BTP can be the main source for acceleration at the end of the year. So as soon as we have a reduction in terms of Euribor of 50 basis points, 75 basis points, 100 basis points, we will see what can happen. But this will accelerate the work of my people in terms of contact with the clients for a potential conversion of this instrument.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Andrea Filtri from Mediobanca.

[Andrea Filtri, analyst]

One question on NII and one on fees as well. Could you tell us what the NII of the quarter has been from the tax credits related to the several ecological programs of the government, and how many billions are -- is the exposure in total at the end of March? And what is your view on loan growth for 2024 year-on-year, which has been lingering in the past quarters?Second on fees. Really good 6% year-on-year growth. I didn't understand from your previous commentary, if you think we could extrapolate it for 2024 in terms of year-on-year growth.

[Carlo Messina, executive]

I will start from fee and commissions. I gave indication of -- on a portion of fee and commissions, so the one related with Wealth Management and the one related with the insurance products. And for this kind of commissions, you will have a double-digit growth, so an acceleration in terms of yearly basis in comparison with these figures of this quarter.Also in Transaction Banking, you will have an acceleration in terms of fee and commissions in -- and it is what we are working on. In terms of insurance product, [Technical Difficulty] an acceleration. And then we will define what would be the real trend of commissions for next year in terms of guidance to the market next quarter, because today I think we can exceed what we have today in our figures.In terms of tax credit, we have a contribution from this world. It is clear like all the other bank, it is in the range between EUR 50 million and EUR 60 million per quarter. And the amount could be between EUR 30 billion and EUR 50 billion, the total amount of this sector. And this is part of our contribution quarter-by-quarter.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question and the questions come from the line of Ignacio Ulargui Lopez from BNP Paribas Exane.

[Ignacio Ulargui, analyst]

I have one question, and it's related to the cost of risk and how do you see credit quality evolving into the year? And what should we expect in terms of cost of risk after the solid performance seen in the first quarter?

[Carlo Messina, executive]

So, we think that credit quality also this year can be very positive and our expectation is also for 2025. So, the condition of corporate sector in Italy is very good, especially compared with other European countries. We do not see any signs of significant deterioration in the financial conditions of our clients. We are really at the minimum level. So it is clear that when you are at EUR 5 billion net non-performing loans and no other bank in Europe has this level comparable with us, obviously, it is clear that you can have an increase of EUR 100 million, EUR 200 million, EUR 300 million in terms of volume, but with no significant threats on our asset quality.We are [Technical Difficulty] in the figures we gave to the market of above EUR 8 billion. We consider the cost of risk, that is below 40 basis points with a run rate of 30 basis points and 10 basis points for de risking, in case we see some opportunity of making disposal of non-performing loans. But our view on this sector is absolutely under control, and we think we can have positive. These figures are without release of overlays.So we remain, in any case, in case of need, with EUR 900 million of overlays. So we are totally confident that this sector is totally under control for Intesa Sanpaolo. And if you compare our position in terms of net non-performing loans in terms of Stage 2 because there is, in my view, an underestimation of the Stage 2 in other banks, you have a clear position of a bank that in terms of cost of risk and quality is totally under control.Then probably we can have a slight increase in terms of cost of risk, quarter-by-quarter, could be another 3 basis points, 4 basis points. So the run rate, in my view, could be 30 basis points with these 10 basis points that we can use in case of need to make further disposal of non-performing loans and so reaching a level close to 40 basis points in case of a disposal.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question, and the questions come from the line of Pamela Zuluaga from Morgan Stanley.

[Pamela Zuluaga, analyst]

The first one is a follow-up. I want to understand how you identify the $100 billion asset pool to grow AUMs. Did I understand correctly that this includes the potential shift out of AUCs, particularly thinking about the BTP Valore that you were talking about earlier or what else goes into this pool?And then my 2 questions are; one, other peers have talked about a deadline for either the usage or the writing back of the current provision overlays. You just said that asset quality remains really strong. I'm wondering is there a moment in time when you know or you think, if you haven't used these $900 million provisions, you will write them back? And then, can you give us a little bit more detail around your expectations for NII by -- for 2025?

[Carlo Messina, executive]

So, thank you very much. In the amount of EUR 100 billion that we estimated last year are not included the BTP Valore switch. So I think that we will define a better figure after the start -- a real starting of reduction of Euribor. So that's a part of the job that we are doing in this committee for fee and commissions, but the amount, in my view, could be higher than EUR 100 billion. So that's my expectation.It is clear that it is not an amount that you can realize in, in 1 year time, but for sure, is an amount that can be considered workable. Just to give you figures on the gross inflows that we have now quarter-by-quarter. Last year, we used to have an amount between EUR 20 billion and EUR 25 billion per quarter in [Technical Difficulty] and now we are between EUR 30 million and EUR 35 billion per quarter.So, also without being net inflows, we are accelerating in terms of fee and commissions. So this means that if we start in terms of acceleration with this EUR 10 billion and then with the conversion of the government bond BTP, our fee and commission can increase really in a massive way, but are not included for the time being in the EUR 100 billion. So it is a reserve that we have, and the figure will be probably part of a presentation in the second quarter result or third quarter result, if we have clear evidence of reduction of Euribor.In terms of asset quality, so this item of overlays is a clear point of attention because these are reserves that we can maintain, but my expectation is that this will not remain forever in the figure of the bank. So it is clear that 2024, 2025. But there will be a timing in which these figures, for a portion, can be used in some way.In our forecast, in our outlook, in all our figures, we have still EUR 900 million of overlays, both for 2024 and 2025. So these are -- the above EUR 8 billion figures are considering this approach because we want to remain very conservative and give figures to the market that are totally reliable and not based on marketing attitudes, just to have an increase, a short-term increase in terms of market cap. But the usage of this is, for sure, an issue in the sense that there will be a timing in which we will decide what kind of usage we can have for this EUR 900 million, could be write-back, could be usage instead of making provision in different sector, but we will decide between 2024 and 2025. But for the figures that I gave to the market, there is 0 contribution from overlays.On net interest income, your question -- sorry, on 2025, yes. On 2025, our expectation is that we can have a net interest income that could be above the net interest income of 2023, and that's our expectation in a scenario in which you can have 3.6% Euribor average for 2024 and 2.6%, 2.7% Euribor average for 2025. In this case, as I told, we will have EUR 900 million contribution from core hedging facilities in 2024 and EUR 1.6 billion contribution in 2025. So, this is our expectation.So, we can continue to have a significant contribution from net interest income, with a good contribution from fee and commissions. The kind of estimates of above EUR 8 billion has been made without any acceleration in fee and commissions that, in any case, we are seeing and we will deliver through this committee and through my direct involvement in the grow of commissions.

[Pamela Zuluaga, analyst]

Sorry. So, there is upside on the guidance of the EUR 8 billion from the efforts around the Wealth Management, Protection?

[Carlo Messina, executive]

Yes. Sorry, we made our estimates before the starting of the new organization and before the starting of this committee that is working in order to accelerate the trend in fee and commissions. So we have already embedded in our figures an extra fee and commissions contribution to net income that is not included in the above EUR 8 billion. We will include this as soon as we will have an action plan deriving from the work of this committee. But it is clear that we are already delivering, because we started, at the beginning of this year, working together with my people, in terms of acceleration of fee and commissions.And this has proven to be a clear factor of success, because the trend of fee and commissions, especially in the [ regulatory ] and the Wealth Management divisions has accelerated. And this means that we can easily have a further contribution to continuing from fee and commissions. But it is not included in our outlook. So, just to give you a clear point on the outlook, again, we are in the market, the clear incumbent in terms of value creation, in terms of also consideration from [Technical Difficulty].So we do not need to sell messages just for marketing purposes. So I want my investors to be sure to receive what I promises and to make this I will wait for next quarter just in order to be sure they're all different factors will accelerate in terms. But it is absolutely clear that we have an extra net income already embedded in the actions that we created and delivered in the first quarter, and also, April has been a very good month for our figures, in line with the best months of the first quarter. So, we are continuing to have significant acceleration in all the different drivers of the profitability of the Group.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question and the questions come from the line of Ignacio Cerezo from UBS.

[Ignacio Cerezo Olmos, analyst]

I've got 2. The first one is on the government-guaranteed lending. If you can give us an update in terms of what is the stock, the maturity schedule? And if you think that poses a risk in terms of asset quality at some point in the next 2 to 3 years? And the second one is in terms of the fee breakdown. I mean, you're basically implying that the EUR 1.4 billion market fees this quarter, you can annualize that in the next 2 to 3 quarters, if you can give us a little bit of color in terms of the contribution from volumes and margins to that target?

[Carlo Messina, executive]

On guaranteed lending volume, we still have close to EUR 20 billion. During 2024 and 2025, we will have between EUR 1 billion and EUR 2 billion expiring, and 40% of the rest will expire in 2026 and the rest after '26. So this more or less. But in this sector, the evidence is that also in a marginal portion that has expired, that is between EUR 1 billion and EUR 2 billion in the last year, beginning this year, we have no evidence of any kind of problem, but the trend is there.So, on the second question, sorry, on fees contribution, you can go at Slide 67. And in Slide 67, you have all the detail on the dynamic in the quarter of 2023 and in the first quarter. And in this sector, you have that for the management, dealing and consultancy activities, my expertise -- in the forecast, we have not a double-digit growth, but the evidence today is that we are moving at double digit, and we will move double digit during 2024. And all the other sector are sector in which we are working line by line to accelerate the level of growth.So this is more or less the tableau de bord that we are using with my people in order to accelerate the growth of fee and commissions in 2024 and 2025. Obviously, you have [ not the ] impact of reduction of interest rates. So this is the results, the acceleration of these actions that we decided in this committee, and they are delivering within the Group.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question, and the questions come from the line of Britta Schmidt from Autonomous Research

[Britta Schmidt, analyst]

Yes, I have another question on the fee income please. Could you explain to us a little bit how you think about upfront and switching fees versus the longer-term management fees that will then come from transforming some of the, let's say, deposits or AUCs into AUMs? How do you intend to make sure that these sort of levels and levels of growth are sustainable also beyond 2025?The second question is around the gross net flows. Well, thanks very much for telling us what the gross flows were. Given that this is such an important area, would you please be so kind to also disclose them in the future for us, so we can track a little bit what's going on? And then lastly, just a question on the balance sheet, the deposits were down Q-on-Q. The repos were up and not only versus Q4, but also versus Q3. Maybe you can just explain a little bit what you've done on the funding side this quarter.

[Carlo Messina, executive]

So, on fees, you have to consider that the trend of our fees in this quarter, you cannot call upfront fees, you can call entry fees, because these are deriving from the volume of gross inflows. So the level of commissions that is related with an entry fee is between 0.6% and 1%; maximum, 1.25%. So, we are not talking about instruments that are creating upfront fees just in a quarter and then you will lose the benefit in terms of commissions.So the entry fee is a level that I described that the amount has increased significantly because the volume has increased in a [Technical Difficulty] through working on volumes, not on pricing, for what you called the upfront. For us, these are entry fees and is part of a job. Then with the maintenance fees that is absolutely positive for us and we'd be running fees year-by-year.But we will not have a phenomenon that can create some negative on our trend and it is a priority for us not to create an upfront fee impact coming from the pricing, but only coming from volume. So that's fundamental. And in our expectation, volumes quarter-by-quarter remains more or less -- the new volumes will remain more or less at the same level. So we will have a continuous trend of fees coming from this [Technical Difficulty] trend.Looking at deposits, in this quarter, we had a reduction of deposits, but we had, at the end of last quarter, a technical movement of EUR 5 billion that was -- the payment of taxes of our clients that was postponed because the end of the year [Technical Difficulty] and not the 1st of January for the fiscal purposes. And so, on average, the reduction of deposits has been only between [ 3 and 4 ]. The majority of these has been a movement from deposits into asset under administration. So we are absolutely under total control of the wealth that is placed with us by our clients.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question and the questions come from the line of Andrea Lisi from Equita.

[Andrea Lisi, analyst]

Yes. Just one question on cost, i.e., so a great trend in cost. In particular, in Banca dei Territori operating expenses were down by minus 2% year-on-year. So, is this something that we can expect also in the next quarters, in the sense that this year will be also affected by the full -- by the impact of the renewal of the contract in Italy. And so, just to understand how do you plan to manage cost and maybe to make them contracting or stabilizing on a yearly basis?

[Carlo Messina, executive]

So, the [Technical Difficulty] the trend is a trend that, especially for personnel cost and administrative expenses, in my view, is totally under control. And looking at depreciation is mainly related to new investments in technology. So, the costs are totally under control. In terms of personnel cost, we will have benefit from the exit of people that we will have during 2024. There will be 1,400 people leaving the organization in 2024. A reduction of branches, the majority of these impacts are obviously concentrated in Banca dei Territori. That is the place in which we have the majority of people and obviously, the branches. So the impact is there for this reason.We had, in 2023, something like a charge in the personnel cost is, that cost that has not been used during 2024. So it's a positive that we will give benefit for 2024. And in comparison, 2024 with 2023, we will not have in 2024 extra charges for personnel costs. And so also the personnel cost in our expectation could have a good trend, despite the increase of cost coming from the new agreement with the trade unions. So my expectation is that cost will remain totally under control.We will continue to accelerate the technological investments, because, in our view, we have to continue this unique position of Intesa Sanpaolo to be with the right business model, so the Wealth Management, Protection & Advisory business model, but also with the right investments in terms of technology. So, in my view, the banking sector for the future will be Wealth Management, Protection, Advisory and Technological Leadership. So -- and for this, we will continue to invest in a significant way. So that will remain the key driver of our sustainable results for the future.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Hugo Cruz from KBW.

[Hugo Moniz Marques Da Cruz, analyst]

I just had one question, which is with the competition of BTP Valore, do you see any risk that the outflows of client money will continue to move to that product, not just from the Intesa side, but other banks in Italy as well? And at some point, that could lead the banks to have to pay more for deposits so that they don't lose so much going to BTP Valore?

[Carlo Messina, executive]

So, I'd think that it is clear that in a phase of interest rate like this, and with the kind of remuneration that banks are giving on deposits, the competition of the BTP Valore remain a point of attention. But as I told, first, the dimension of BTP Valore will not reach a position to create any kind of significant impact on the [ fee based ] sector.Second, banks like Intesa Sanpaolo will have a benefit in the future because we switch from asset under administration into asset under management. And third, the financing of the public debt of Italy is positive also for the banking sector. So if families will finance the public debt of the country, this will create more independence of the country from other sources, and in my view, is in any case, positive.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question, and the questions come from the line of Fabrizio Bernardi from Intermonte.

[Fabrizio Bernardi, analyst]

I have a question on -- not on Intesa, but in general, on consolidation, you played a very important role in the past with the UBI deal. So, I would like you to share with us your colors, your flavors, your thoughts about consolidation in Italy. I know that Intesa is at the top of the antitrust limits in technically any province in Italy. So, I know you cannot have an active role, but given your role played in the past, maybe you can give us some flavor about what may happen?

[Carlo Messina, executive]

Good question, because I think that to make consolidation, you have not only to be a super smart guy in terms of understanding the best financial condition, but you have to be enough bold to make a transaction in the right way. So this means not to create some discussion for months and months, but you have to assess a clear offer and then to make the deal. This is part of [Indiscernible] Intesa Sanpaolo has been probably the best player in Europe to deliver this kind of transaction in the past years. You mentioned the transaction of UBI, that has been probably, in my view, the best deal in Europe also because the quality of UBI was really very positive, and this allowed to the combined group to be -- to reinforce the point of strength of Intesa Sanpaolo.But looking at the consolidation in Italy, I think that if this will happen, and again, to be able to make consolidation, you have not to be only smart in making theoretical deal but also to perform a clear deal. But if this will happen, this will be very positive for Intesa Sanpaolo, because the kind of experience of all the other Italian bank in making acquisition, I cannot tell that it is close to 0, but it is not something that had recent M&A deal.And an M&A deal means to have ability to bring people with you, ability to integrate IT system, ability to deliver synergies, ability to create a unique flag between all the people within the organization, and also from the client side is a clear point of attention. And in that case, I think that Intesa Sanpaolo can have a clear benefit from consolidation made in the country.So I'm pretty positive. I don't think that we will have significant transaction in the country. That is my perception. But in any case, for us, this can be positive and not negative.

[Operator]

We have no further questions at this time. I will now hand back to Mr. Carlo Messina for closing remarks. Thank you.

[Carlo Messina, executive]

So thank you very much. I think that in our presentation, we had the occasion to give you also my personal view on the real potential that we have to exceed the figures that we have in our not only official document, but also what we are really making within the Group. If I can ask you to give a clear look also to Slide 35 of our presentation, because in my view, in this slide, you have the clear evidence of what is the meaning of sustainability for an organization for the future. So, thank you very much and see you next presentation.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you, and have a great day. Bye-bye.