Fiera Milano SpA

MIL:FM

Earnings Call Analysis

Fiera Milano Records Exceptional 2023 Performance

Fiera Milano celebrated an outstanding year in 2023, with revenues soaring to EUR 284 million, a 29% increase from the previous year. The EBITDA witnessed a phenomenal growth of 66%, reaching EUR 97 million, and even surpassed forecasts by roughly EUR 10 million. Net results flipped from a EUR 5.8 million loss in 2022 to a remarkable EUR 45.5 million profit. Financial strength was evident as net cash jumped significantly to EUR 81 million, a EUR 51 million leap compared to 2022. In recognition of such solid performance, a dividend of EUR 0.40 per share will be distributed, marking the resumption of dividends after four years. Looking forward, the company is optimistic with an EBITDA projection between EUR 65 million to EUR 75 million for 2024.

A Record-Breaking Year with Optimism for Continued Growth

Fiera Milano has had a momentous year in 2023, delivering record-breaking financial results that signify a strong post-pandemic recovery and even overtook pre-pandemic levels. Revenue reached €284 million, a significant 29% hike from 2022, exceeding market expectations and surpassing the 2019 level. EBITDA soared to €97 million, marking a 66% increase compared to 2022. The net financial position closed notably strong, with net cash at €81 million, well ahead of both consensus estimates and previous guidance by €23 million. The company has also announced a notable dividend distribution of €0.40 per share.

Resilience and Strategic Execution across Core Business Segments

The Italian exhibition business was the driver of significant revenue growth, particularly from biannual shows such as HOST, which achieved over 45% growth in occupied space. Newly launched and hosted events also contributed to the success, including GEE and ISSA Pulire. Moreover, the congress segment also surpassed pre-COVID levels in revenue, predominantly from major medical congresses. There was a considerable recovery in foreign exhibition business, attributed mainly to operations in China, where exhibition numbers doubled from the previous year. The year's success was further bolstered by new JVs in Brazil and efficient cost-saving initiatives.

Maintaining EBITDA Guidance with a Positive Outlook for 2024

Despite anticipating a less favorable calendar year for 2024, Fiera Milano maintains a positive financial outlook with an expected EBITDA in the range of €65 million to €75 million. This optimism is fueled by positive indications from scheduled 2024 events, including the return of significant itinerant events like CPHI and Mostra Convegno Expocomfort. The company looks forward to presenting its strategic plan for 2024-2027, which will detail future growth and development initiatives.

An Encouraging Start to Q1 2024 and Commitment to M&A Strategy

The company observed a promising beginning to Q1 2024 with revenue increases between 15% to 20%. This buoyancy is expected to continue into Q2, and the company has confirmed the EBITDA guidance previously provided. Fiera Milano is in a strong net financial position, facilitating the prospect of considering an M&A strategy to be further discussed during the upcoming strategic plan presentation.

Net Working Capital and Net Financial Position in 2024

The company's net working capital increased by approximately €26 million, reaching €98.2 million, which is mainly due to advances and increased supplier debt. While this is typical for an odd year and is expected to have a negative counterpart in 2024, the net financial position is not expected to deteriorate significantly, with an anticipated threshold of €55 million to €60 million, assuming no major M&A activities.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Fiera Milano's Full Year 2023 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Vincenzo Cecere, Head of Investor Relations and Sustainability. Please go ahead, sir.

[Vincenzo Cecere, executive]

Thank you. Good evening, everyone, and welcome to Fiera Milano's 2023 Results Conference Call. This is Vincenzo Cecere speaking, Head of Investor Relations and Sustainability and I'm here with Francesco Conci, CEO; and Massimo De Tullio, CFO of Fiera Milano.

The presentation of today will be structured in 3 sections. During the first section, Mr. Francesco Conci will give you an overview of the business's main financial highlights and 2024 outlook. Then Mr. Massimo De Tullio will go through the divisional results and financial figures in greater detail. On a final note, an update on sustainability will also be provided. At the end of the call, you will be invited for a Q&A session with the management available for your questions.

At this point, I leave the floor to Francesco Conci for the key messages of 2023 results. Please, Francesco, go ahead.

[Francesco Conci, executive]

Good evening, everyone. Welcome, and thank you for joining Fiera Milano's 2023 Full Year Results Conference Call. I'm very pleased to present to you a very strong set of results this year, which resulted to be a very remarkable year in the history of Fiera Milano. With 73 exhibition, 132 congresses, more than 1.8 million square meters sold, the group has delivered a record-breaking set of results. Revenue has reached EUR 284 million, reflecting an increase of plus 29% compared to 2022. Meaning that Fiera Milano has already exceeded the 2019 prepandemic level of EUR 279 million, slightly above marketing -- market forecast.

This achievement underscores our resilience and strategic execution, demonstrating our ability to not only recover but to expand our market presence. EBITDA has experienced a significant boost, reaching EUR 97 million, marking an improvement of almost EUR 40 million compared to 2022, reflecting in a very marker growth of plus 66%. 2023 EBITDA exceeded both our initial forecast and analyst consensus estimated by approximately EUR 10 million.

Net results registered a record-breaking year, standing at EUR 45.5 million and marking a significant improvement from the EUR 5.8 million loss in 2022. The significant improvement of all the main economic results is attributed to our strategic and operational execution across all our core business segments. Italia exhibition business showcased significant revenue growth, driven by the strong performance of key rents and the favorable trade fair calendar. The business approached pre-pandemic levels with notable contributions from biannual shows like HOST and ITMA and PLAST. In particular, HOST, our largest organized division, has grown more than 45% in terms of [indiscernible] occupied. While MADE has experienced a growth in square meters of 66%.

We also launched a new exhibition, GEE-Global Elevator Exhibition with 7,000 square meters at its first edition, and we hosted for the first time ISSA Pulire, 40,000 square meters -- 40,000 square meters. Congresses achieved a record year, surpassing pre-COVID levels in revenue and EBITDA, thanks to major medical congresses and corporate conventions. Foreign exhibition business showed a remarkable recovery in profitability level, mainly in driver by the operation in China, where we doubled the number of exhibitions compared to the previous year. We are particularly pleased to report 2023 results, exceeding both analyst expectations and our provision guidance, primarily thanks to a very strong Q4 performance of HOST and l ITMA, cost-saving initiatives and complete rebound of the operation in China.

Internal financial strength, net cash has reached EUR 81 million, a significant increase of EUR 51 million compared to EUR 30 million as of December 2022. Net cash at year end exceeded both the consensus estimated of analysts and the previous guidance by EUR 23 million due to lighter EBITDA contribution and improved net working capital dynamics.

Given our strong cash generation and solid financial structure, we are pleased to announce the proposal to distribute a dividend of EUR 0.40 per share to our shareholders, marking a return to dividend distribution after 4 years.

Looking ahead to 2024, we are optimistic about our financial outlook. Despite the less favorable calendar year, we anticipated EBITDA to range between EUR 65 million, EUR 75 million, supported by positive indications from our 2024 scheduled events, including the return of significant itinerant event [indiscernible] CPHI with more 100,000 square meters expected, twice the size of the last edition and the biennial Mostra Convegno Expocomfort with more than 80,000 square meters.

On 8th April, we will present our strategic plan 2024-2027. This presentation will be a milestone sharing our vision and development initiative for next five of Fiera Milano's growth. Please join us for this important event. You will receive an invitation shortly.

At this point, I will leave the floor to Massimo for the business and financial review, please.

[Massimo De Tullio, executive]

Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for joining the call. So I will now -- as Francesco already mentioned, I will now bring you to these results and give you some explanation about how we scored this positive result this year. As Francesco already said, the results were very, very positive at all the divisional levels. In fact, if we look at all the -- our, let's say, divisions with core increase in revenues and EBITDA basically on all our divisions for sure in the Italian exhibition business. Also the congresses caused a positive increase in revenues. And foreign exhibition business as well scored a positive increase, at least in EBITDA.

Let's go now through the Italian exhibition business, which is, for sure, the most important one, which is now accounting for 83% of our group revenue with EUR 241 million revenue reached in 2023. This returned to this EUR 241 million, basically are marking an impressive increase of EUR 65 million if we compare the same results achieved in 2022, which was of EUR 176.8 million, which represents a growth of 36%. And more importantly, if we compare the 2023 results with 2019, we see that basically we reached almost 98% of our prepandemic revenue at -- in this division. The main driver for the growth, if you look at the increase between 2023 and 2022 are basically two. All the events or most of the events basically performed an increase in terms of volumes, square meters and revenues compared to 2022, basically confirming a full recovery or at least a gradual recovery from the -- let's say, pandemic shock.

So we are basically coming back year-over-year and increasing year-over-year volumes and revenues compared to the previous year, and we are approaching the pre-pandemic levels. If we go, let's say, for instance, we can do some examples. So basically Micam, HOMI Fashion&Jewels or ITMA, so all basically the annual events scored an increase compared to the previous edition. We also had in 2023 because this is, let's say, the year is, let's say, characterized by a more favorable calendar impact because of the presence of the biannual organized events. We had not only the presence of HOST, which achieved so far, the record in terms of revenue even compared to 2019, an increase compared to the 2021 edition of 45% in terms of square meters, but we benefit also from the presence in 2023 of some purely annual exhibition.

And in particular, we had ITMA and Plast that boosted the 2023 results. It's worth noting that we, as Francesco mentioned, we launched also the MIBA, the new alliance related to the building. And in this alliance, we launched new event, a brand-new event organized by Fiera Milano, the Global Elevator Exhibition, GEE, which had the first edition scored a positive -- very positive result and also positive in terms of contribution margin. Another important element to justify the increase in revenues and EBITDA compared to 2022 is the increase in the services. And in the revenue in the margin generated by the services.

And considering the services we achieved this year, looking at the Italy division, 40% of weight, almost 40% of weight of our turnover. And we increased compared to 2022, the revenues of services by 25%. This also thanks to the presence of the multi-annual exhibition like ITMA and Plast, which, let's say, accounts for a higher, let's say, revenue per square meter if we look at the penetration of services.

Other example of exhibition that increased in a significant way compared to last year, I was mentioned before, HOST, which increased by 45% the square meter compared to the last edition of 2021. - Made Expo, another important organized expedition by Fiera Milano scored 33,000 square meter compared to the 20K of the last edition with an increase of 66%. Looking at the, let's say, other events, so the events not organized by Fiera Milano, we have seen increase in EICMA, EICMA with a record edition of 120k square meters. LineaPelle with 2 events per year that scored an increase compared to the last edition of 11%. ARTIGIANO IN FIERA 13%. MIDO, one of the most important in the sector, scored a 33% increase in terms of volumes. And so Milano increased by 22%.

So all these factors basically add Fiera Milano to EUR 80 million EBITDA in the Italy division, which is basically a EUR 35 million increase if we compare this result to 2022. To this result contributed also the, let's say, Italian JV, so Fiera [indiscernible] JV positive results.

Now if we look at the Congressi division, we scored as well an increase in terms of revenues compared to 2022. We had EUR 4 million more. So we reached EUR 47 million compared to the EUR 43.3 million of 2022 while at an EBITDA level, we scored more or less the same result. In terms of revenues, we had a positive impact through the presence in the Congressi portfolio of the year of congresses such as ERS, the respiratory one, EULAR, the rheumatology event and the urology here, ECTRIMS as well and ERA. At EBITDA level, we have to say that the Congresses results were affected by the increase in the cost of energies that, as we already mentioned in the past, in 2023 have been considerably higher compared to 2022, which was benefiting of a fixed rate contract that the company had previously signed off in 2021.

So basically, this year, both the Italian division and the Congresses division were affected by a material increase in the energy costs. And this explains also why we didn't increase significantly the EBITDA of Congresses.

Looking at the foreign exhibition business, we have just explained that in terms of revenues, let's say, in the foreign division, we have the, let's say, a calendar impact, which is the opposite of the one that we have in Italy. So basically, in the odd year, we are, let's say, less positive because we missed some biannual events. This explains the slight drop in revenues because we passed from EUR 8.7 million to almost EUR 4 million. But when we look at the EBITDA, then we have to account for the very positive impact of our JV with Deutsche Messe, which is basically organizing events in China.

And the JV, we done over basically scored a higher result, not only compared to last year, but also compared to 2019. This is clearly the effect of a completely -- let's say, a complete rebound and restart of the exhibition in China that were basically suspended for almost the entire year in 2022. So thanks to this positive contribution, our International division, scored an EBITDA result, which has been even higher compared to the 2019 one.

Regarding the operation in Brazil and South Africa, we are -- let's say, we have positive news for the future. At least for Brazil, we can say that we have closed 2 JV, one with IFEMA Madrid, to launch a new exhibition in Brazil, which is Fruit Attraction, Sao Paulo. This exhibition will be managed through this partnership. And we did another partnership with Nurnberg Messe in order to launch in Brazil, the exhibition squad.

As I was mentioning before, when we look at 2023, we have to account for a less favorable calendar year because basically, we missed in 2023 events like [indiscernible], which typically take place in the even year. So regarding the, let's say, foreign exhibition, I would say that's all.

I'm going now to provide you with an in-depth overview of our economic performance in 2023, presenting the slide from 16 to 19. So first of all, let me remark that all the guidance that we previously gave to the market have been surpassed. So all the guidance in terms of revenues, EBITDA and net financial position have been exceeded.

When we look at the EBITDA, we had a guidance of EUR 85 million, EUR 95 million with a midpoint at EUR 90 million and we reached EUR 97 million. And we also gave guidance in terms of turnover between EUR 275 million and EUR 280 million and we scored EUR 284 million. And in terms of net financial position, we -- our previous guidance was close to EUR 55 million, EUR 60 million, and we have closed with an EUR 81 million net financial position. So it's important any way to underline that we -- this guidance, at least the EBITDA one were basically provided during the CONNECT plan. So a plan that has been performed in 2021.

Now we all know that since 2021, a lot of things have changed. First of all, we experienced double digit, almost double-digit inflation if we accumulate 2022 and 2023. So with the impact, as I was mentioning before, also on the energy cost, which accounted just considering this line for more than EUR 5 million increase compared to 2022. So the fact that we were able to, not only to reach, but also to increase the previously provided guideline is a very positive result for this company.

In terms of operational highlights, we organized a total of 73 exhibitions with 44 in Italy and 29 abroad. Among these 43 where -- among these 43 were owned events, so organized by Fiera Milano and 30 events were hosted event. We also hosted 132 congresses and the total occupied exhibition space amounted to 1,882,000 square meters.

Now let's take a look to our financial performance for 2023. At group level, we have done really well with EUR 284 million in revenues. That's a significant increase of EUR 63.5 million more than last year and nearly a 29% increase. And even compared, as I was mentioning before, for the Italian Exhibition division, even compared at group level we did in 2019 turnover, basically, we were able to increase the turnover by almost 1.5%.

As I was mentioning before, our success growth this year has several key drivers. For sure, the positive impact of our event calendar, which is positive in the year, as I was mentioning before. So the presence of HOST, that anyway, I have to remark again scored the record turnover even compared to the 2019 exhibition and notwithstanding the fact that we didn't reach the same square meters of the last edition. So we missed more or less 10% of square meters, but we scored a higher turnover, also thanks to the services penetration.

And then I was mentioning the basically growth of all the, not only annual exhibitions, but also the biannual ones. So all the exhibitions scored better than the last and the previous edition. As well as I already mentioned, the increase in the services, which now accounts for almost 40% of the Italian division in terms of turnover and also the congresses scored very well at least in terms of revenues and then scored the same level of EBITDA of last year.

All these factors led to an EBITDA of EUR 97 million for 2023, which is a substantial growth, a substantial increase of almost EUR 40 million, EUR 38.7 million compared to last year EBITDA. So a 66% basically increase. Let's say that there has been also another couple of, let's say, key trends that have contributed to this success. Firstly, our revenues has been following an upward trajectory, which has been bolstered by a mix of events that have been well received and strategically timed. Secondly, our partnership have been performing very strongly.

The joint venture with Deutsche Messe in China has exceeded pre-COVID performances, as I was mentioning before. So not only better than last year, but even better than 2019. We have any way to, let's say, notice that if we compare our results and our achievement to the pre-pandemic level, we are discounting, for sure, higher structural cost. I was mentioning before the energy cost and the increase we faced in this. But also when we look at the personnel cost, we have to consider all the increases in the national contracts that we are facing in this year and in the previous year.

So at least all our suppliers are increasing as a consequence dear tariffs and their prices.

The net result of the year, when we look at the, let's say, standard business has been really, really, really positive. Let's say, that we closed in terms of net result with EUR 45.5 million, which compared to the EUR 5.8 million of last year, is an increase of more than EUR 50 million. And even if we, let's say, take out from this achievement, from this result, the impact of the operation to food, we remain, when we stand with a EUR 29 million net profit, which compared to the minus EUR 6 million of last year, represented plus EUR 35 million increase compared to 2022.

And thanks to this and also thanks to what we are going to look now in terms of balance sheet and net financial position, then we anticipate that today, we have submitted and got approval from the Board to come back to a dividend distribution in 2024 related to 2023 result.

Looking at the balance sheet and cash flow, I would just highlight the 3 -- let's say, 3 main points. First of all, we had an increase in the other noncurrent assets because of the operation and with di Parma, so departure of the stake of 18.5% of Fiere di Parma in exchange of Tuttofood. Then in terms of net working capital, I think this is the other part that worth to be mentioned. We had a shift from EUR 72.4 million to EUR 98.2 million, this increase in liquidity, which accounts for almost EUR 26 million is mainly due to the dynamics of advances and increasing depth of supplier. And it's quite typical for the odd year. But let's say that this year has been also amplified by the fact that we are in a recovering path. So we have -- we are in a growing path and this, let's say, amplifies also this kind of impact, which normally affects year-on-year. But in this case, was even higher than what we expected.

And for sure, also the Q4 results had a positive impact on this. In terms of net financial debt, so as a consequence of the EBITDA and the shift in the net working capital then we can mention a very high increase from the previous net financial position. So the EUR 30 million almost, we scored in the end of 2022 up to EUR 81 million, almost at the end of 2023. So with an increase of EUR 51 million that we can basically, let's say, explain looking at very few elements. So the EBITDA accounted for EUR 97 million when we take out the cash out related to the rents, we take out EUR 55.4 million. So we remain with EUR 42 million. More or less, we had the net working capital shift for almost EUR 26 million, take out the CapEx expenditure for EUR 11 million and then we landed to an operating cash flow of almost EUR 56 million.

And then if we consider that we are accounting for equity result of our JV for almost [ EUR 16 million ] that we have not yet, let's say, received in terms of dividends that will add to the EUR 51 million of free cash flow that we accounted in terms of variation between 2023 and 2022.

Now I'm pleased to leave you the space for Q&A. So we are here, me, Francesco and Vincenzo for your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Emanuele Gallazzi, Equita.

[Emanuele Gallazzi, analyst]

I have 3 questions. The first one is on services. You mentioned the strong growth in 2023 compared to 2022. Can you just give us a sense of the drivers of this growth in terms of, I don't know, higher penetration or higher prices?

The second one is on the Italian exhibition business. If you can just give us, say, an idea of the current performance of the first quarter events and on the level of bookings for the events of the second quarter? And the last one is on the capital allocation. Basically, because you handed 2023 with this very good net financial position with over EUR 80 million of net cash. I know that you'll likely provide all the details during the Capital Market Day, but at this stage, any comment on the M&A strategy will be very useful.

[Francesco Conci, executive]

Okay. Thanks, Emanuele, for your question. So your first question was about the services. Now we scored this 25% increase in terms of absolute value in terms of revenues. Clearly, there has been a positive impact of the calendar. So the presence of the purely biennial events, ITMA, Plast and also the biennial HOST, let's say, led part of this increase. If we take out this impact, we remain in any way, I think with more than 10% increase, let's say, a like-for-like increase. And out of this 10%, we could say that 2% could be related to price increases and the remaining part is a penetration increase.

And this affected almost all the services. So we speak about stand-fitting the catering services, the technical services provided to the exhibitors. So all the services line had a very positive increase in terms of penetration.

Now the second question was about the Q1 2024. We have positive, let's say, in this moment, we have, let's say, partial results for January and February, and we have some expected result for March events. In this moment, at least, we see on the organized events an increase of, let's say, something between 15% and 20%. And also the hosted events are -- the biennial Host events, so Mostra Convegno Expocomfort looks like is bringing an increase of almost 19%...

[Emanuele Gallazzi, analyst]

Maybe just a clarification. Are you referring to top line revenue contribution or...

[Francesco Conci, executive]

At the moment I'm referring to -- in this moment, I make your reference to revenues.

[Emanuele Gallazzi, analyst]

Okay. Okay.

[Francesco Conci, executive]

Regarding Q2, we say more or less the same path of growth compared to 2023. So this led us also to confirm for the time being, the previous guidance in terms of EBITDA between EUR 63 million, EUR 65 million and EUR 75 million.

Now the third question was about capital allocation. So we -- as you know, we will have on the eighth of April, the new strategic plan disclosed. I think the -- any comment about the M&A will have the right place in that context. So for the time being, I can confirm that clearly with this net financial position and with the perspective of generating additional cash in the coming year, this company has to think about an M&A strategy. But for the time being, I cannot anticipate anymore.

[Operator]

The next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti, Mediobanca.

[Simonetta Chiriotti, analyst]

The first question is about cash. So you reached a level which is already in line with the target that you had for 2025. And the main -- one of the drivers was the -- basically dynamic in net working capital. So my question is, do you expect that this generation of capital that came from net working capital evolution will be reabsorbed in 2024 or 2025 or can we assume that you will add new cash flow on top of what you have reached in 2023? And the second question is on Congresses, positive trend in revenues, less positively in terms of EBITDA. Do you see any improvement also in terms of profitability from Congresses or don't you see this profitability?

[Massimo De Tullio, executive]

Thanks, Simonetta. So regarding the net financial position, in the even year, we have, let's say, the opposite impact on -- in terms of net working capital. I don't see any impact, let's say, equal to the positive one that we had in this year. So I expect a negative impact in terms of net working capital. But all in all, let's say, considering also the dividend distribution, we can expect our financial position not to deteriorate and to go lower than, let's say, in this moment, I can anticipate EUR 55 million, EUR 60 million. This is clearly taking aside any kind of M&A operation that could take place in 2024.

So for the time being, considering the CapEx that we are going to face in 2024 and specifically the one related to the media center, and the dividend distribution, the net working capital, let's say, dynamic and the EBITDA range communicated, I think, EUR 55 million, EUR 60 million, net financial position can be considered there a reasonable landing point.

The other question was about congresses. So we see already this year an improvement in terms of energy costs. We expect this will probably bring some pressure to the EBITDA, the EBITDA margin of Congresses. On top of that, I think we faced in 2023 also a little bit of a different mix of events. We hosted some specific events in the sports sector. We hosted this Karma [indiscernible] Karma, some events for [indiscernible], the Christmas village at the end of the year. So clearly, these events have probably lower profitability compared to the corporate ones or the standard ones.

But as more as we, let's say, will gain experience also in managing this kind of events, I think we will also recover and we will regain profitability also managing this kind of let's say, events. So yes, I expect to recover profitability on Congresses very soon.

[Operator]

The next question is from Andrea Bonfa of Banca Akros.

[Andrea Bonfa, analyst]

I was wondering if you can elaborate on your, let's say, '24 guidance, which is a bit old because later with CONNECT plan, but it seems to me that it's quite conservative considering that you announced the CPHI, let's say, exhibition, which is plus 100,000 square meter, in excess of the 100,000 square meters. So at the time of your plan, that this event was not included. And the second one is related on the same point when you elaborate on the guidance for '24 at the time of the CONNECT plan, if that included also the MCE, Multi Congress Expo at the time. And the second question is on the foreign exhibition. And if you can kindly remind us what is the seasonality between given year, and old year also for abroad, in particular, for China? I mean, will China be more or less the same level also in '24? That's basically the question. Very last detail, if you can remind us what were the assumptions for energy cost in the old CONNECT plan if you got the data with you?

[Massimo De Tullio, executive]

So first question about the 2024 guidance. First of all, the 2024 expected results, we communicated during the Connect plan was already considering CPHI. So this is not an addition to that target. It was already part of the plan because we had already an option based on the contract in place with [indiscernible]. Clearly, was just an option was not, let's say, a certainty. But based on that option, we already consider the impact on CPHI.

The fact -- regarding the statement that this can be underestimated, this guidance can be underestimated, let's say, I would just stress one point. This is an even year, so aside CPHI, we don't have our biennial organized events. So we will basically miss HOST, MADE, Sicurezza, ITMA which had placed in 2023, Tuttofood. So we miss very important events that made part of the result of 2023. And just to give you an idea, if we compare 2022 calendar with 2018, a like-for-like will, let's say, take out from 2024 results compared to 2018, almost EUR 10 million EBITDA. So that led us to a guidance of almost EUR 65 million, EUR 75 million, which is already quite challenging because when we look at the volumes, we are recovering, but we are not yet at the pre-pandemic level.

So to me, this guidance can be still considered quite challenging. Regarding MCE was already -- Mostra Convegno Expocomfort was clearly part of our 2024 guidance. So there has not been any addition both from the presence of these events. And regarding the impact on China of the, let's say, called our portfolio. China is like, let's say, the Italian business, basically, there is not a very big difference in terms of number of events but there is a kind of seasonality, which is negative in the even years and positive in the odd years. So as well, probably China, the JV result in 2024 will be lower compared to the 2023, considering a calendar impact affecting some of the China exhibitions.

And regarding the energy impact, we can clearly state that we -- in the previous plan in the CONNECT plan, we accounted more or less for the same cost we were facing during 2021 and '22, which, let's say, all in all, can worth EUR 5 million, EUR 6 million less compared to what we are facing now.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back for any closing remarks. Excuse me, there is a follow-up question from Andrea Bonfa, Banca Akros.

[Andrea Bonfa, analyst]

Sorry, the fact that there are no other question. Just clarification, if I understood correctly, your EBITDA, this year EBITDA includes some EUR 3 million of nonrecurring reorganization costs. And if that is correct, if you can elaborate on those costs.

[Massimo De Tullio, executive]

Yes. That's right. We face some, let's say, costs related to the change management and the change in the Board and the appointment of the new managing director and all the changes know that -- and the reorganization. So basically, we can consider EUR 3 million of costs that we incurred this year as a one-off that will not recur in the coming year. At the same time, we have to consider that in the coming year, this company will be probably -- will be, for sure, engaged in the development on additional business, probably M&A activities and so on. So let's say, there will be probably additional cost that we have to sustain in order to grant our growth and development. But for sure, EUR 3 million this year, we're on a clear one-off, of course.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for any closing remarks. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.