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Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the ENAV full year 2022 Results Conference Call and Webcast.[Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Vittorio De Domenico, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, Per Paolo. Good afternoon also from our side, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to ENAV 2022 results call. Here with me, there are the ENAV CFO, Mr. Paolo Simioni, CEO, sorry; the CFO, Mr. Luca Colman. They will be running through the formal presentation, and after that, we'll be happy to answer to your questions. And with this, I leave the floor to Paolo.
Thank you, Vittorio. First of all, I want to apologize for the lowering of my voice, but I try to do my best. So welcome to ENAV full year 2022 results call. 2022 has been the year of the birth of -- for ENAV despite the time wind of COVID-19 pandemic impacting the first quarter of the year. The Russian Ukraine conflict started in February 2022 and the rising of inflation and interest rates in the financial market. We were back to normal to treat prepandemic condition with air traffic volumes almost in line with those recorded in 2019 and with standard prepandemic seasonality.
Standard regulation mechanism recited from the beginning of 2022. The approval in April of the Italian performance plan valid up to the end of 2024. With all these elements in place, I'm glad to confirm that ENAV remains the fourth largest ASP members subject to EU performance team and one of the best performers in terms of quality and safety of service, which means that the ENAV is entitled to receive the performance bonus. Moving forward to the nonregulated business, we recorded a double-digit growth year-on-year of nonregulated revenue.
Let me provide you now with an update of the implementation of our 2022-2024 business plan, which is part of our long-term future strategic vision with a 10-year horizon. During the year, we have inaugurated the digital of power in Greece Airport, which is fully operative since June 2022.
After that, we integrated the Nate's approach service in the room are a control center in May, implemented also in December, the arrival management system, a new technological operative platform to improve arrive of sequences in the airport of raw material machine, also implemented the tactical control tool automatic system, which is another operating platform for prediction of potential conflict in aircraft trajectories in the Milan area contract and finally started up and operate to the technical operation center in Rome Argentina for the centralized remote supervision of the maintenance of our operative assets.
On ESG side, we updated our sustainability plan standing in the year 2024 in order to align its duration to the business plan time line Also, we achieved the carbon at parity in 2022 throughout the reduction of Scope 1 and 2 emissions by approximately 80% versus 2019 and the offset of remaining emissions using carbon credits. And we renewed together with the units, the economical part of the labor contract for all employees. For what concern the financial, we reported double-digit revenue and EBITDA increase of 12.9% and 22.4%, respectively, in line with our guidance and currently with the strong recovery of traffic recorded in the year.
We recorded a net profit growth of 33.9% and keep our strong balance sheet, reducing at the same time, gross and net debt. Based on the financial results of the period, the Board of Directors has resolved to propose to the Annual General Meeting to distribute in October 2023 dividend for a total amount of EUR 116.4 million, equivalent to EUR 0.1967 per share. Moving to Slide 2, let's focus on 2022 growth results. reported a strong performance driven by a traffic volume recovery in the entire period and particularly through the summer season, which prolonged a till October. To be noted that in August and October, our traffic volume exceeded the prepandemic levels by 0.8% and 2.6%, respectively.
In 2022, our route and terminal traffic increased year-on-year, year-on-year by 65.3% and 63.6%, reaching 95.2% and 88.6% of 2019. Net revenue was EUR 944.3 million, increasing 12.9% year-on-year, in line with the provided guidance, driven by solid growth, not only in the operating core business, but also in nonregulated segment, which grew 21% year-on-year, above the provided guidance, reaching approximately EUR 40 million. EBITDA was EUR 272.2 million, up 22.4% year-on-year, in line with the provided guidance despite the expected rise in costs mainly coming from the intense air traffic growth, especially during the summer season. The renewed of labor contracts signed with the unions in the fourth quarter of the year and the group synergies, energy expenses, mainly due to the Russian trade concept and the inflation line.
EBITDA margin stood at 28.8%, which means 2.2 percentage points higher than 2021. I -- we recorded EUR 104.5 million of net profit, finally, up 34% compared to the previous year. CapEx for EUR 97.8 million and net financial debt at EUR 407.8 million, decreasing versus the EUR 483.5 million registered at the end of 2021. Therefore, also the ratio between the net debt and EBITDA decreased to 1.5x from the 2.17x at the end of 2021. Cash at the end of the year was EUR 268 million, which remains more than adequate to face at group's needs.
On the next slide, you can find the 2022 arrow traffic volume related to the 4 largest European countries. Italy confirms to be the fourth largest country myruservice unit behind Spain, Germany and France. With regards to traffic volume, Italy has shown at 65.3% year-on-year traffic recovery, which has been in line with the year-on-year average growth considering all countries overing to Eurocontrol.
In terms of operational performance, enough average minute of [indiscernible] flight due to reason attributable to ATM was only 0.07 minutes, and it's still under review for further decrease due to some delays erroneously assigned to Italy. The review process with Eurocontrol is expected to close in the coming months, back the buyback, we achieved performance compared with the target set by the regulator, enables ENAV to receive the economic bonds for the year 2022 and foreseen by the bond malus as foreseen by the bonus smart mechanism defined by the regulator.
This is a net notable result considering the air traffic speed of recovery in the year as well as the volume managed during the summer season and has been achieved thanks to the ability of all our part in providing ATC services efficiently and with the highest safety summer.
With regards to sustainability, I'm proud to show you our 2022 achievements. We have standed our sustainability plan for the year 2024 in order to align its duration to the business plan time frame and defined new challenging target for the 2024 such as the Approach integration in additional airports, the replacement of the current service car with electric hybrid and cubing vehicles up until 80% of total and the disposal of the nondirectional bacon at 90% in 2022.
Through the development of our new platform for sustainably sustainable supply chain management, we evaluated more than 75% of our core suppliers. And at the same time, we established a new target for maintaining the ISO 37001 anti-bribery certification in 2023. We completed the integration of some our approach systems into the area control centers. And at the same time, we implemented among the new arrival manager software in Fiumicino airport, allowing the airlines to further reduce their emission. ENAV has continued to push on the internal communication plan and sustainability, setting up a new corporate infrastructure dedicated to the promotion of sustainable sustainability teams.
At the same time, we have last several initiatives aimed at bringing women into the ATC professions. On the environmental front, I plan to announce that ENAV achieved carbon neutrality in 2022 through other reduction of Scope 1 and 2 emissions by approximately 80% versus 2019 and the offset of remaining emissions using carbon credits. This doesn't stop us inciting the climate change, having helped airlines with our free route technology to reduce carbon emission for over 200 million kilograms in the year.
I'm also happy to share with you that ENAV in 2022 obtained 2 solicited ESG rating. The first are Standard and Poor Global, which is -- which evaluated ENAV with a score of 51 on 0 to 100 range. And the second one, CDP, formerly Carbon Disclosure project, which a valued ENAV with C category scoring in a range from F to [indiscernible] with [indiscernible] being the top launch. And with this, I leave the floor to Luca for the detailed view of the results.
Thank you, Paolo, and good afternoon to all of you on the call. Moving to Slide 5. We can see the stronger traffic performance, which showed a 65.3% year ago in terms of service units, coupled with the summer quarterly seasonality. Within route, international traffic increased the most, 89.1% year-on-year. Over flight was up 67.4%, and National grew 36.4%. Overflight confirms it to be the most important component with the not mix accounting for 43% of the total traffic, while the international component accounts for 37% and is for 20%.
Full year 2022 route service unit were 95.2% of those recorded in the same period of 2019, following a very strong traffic recovery and a prolonged summer season. Fourth quarter 2022 traffic volume was at 0.6% above the last quarter of 2019, confirming the year-on-year improving quarterly trend. Let's take a look now at the terminal traffic on Slide 6. Service units increased 63.6% year-on-year, showing strong performance in all 3 zones and a return of a standard quarterly seasonality. Looking at the terminal traffic by destination, the information component grows up by 86.2% was the domestic by 38.2%.
Full year 2022 terminal traffic reached 88.6% of 2019 volumes, confirming also for terminal a strong recovery already seen in wood. This represents the weighted average of a 3 charge in Zen that showed different results. Terminal zone 1 reached 67.9% of 2019, showing the lowest recovery due to the reduced activities performed by the tenant a carrier. Terminal zone 2 reached 89.7% of the 2019 service unit, while Terminal zone 3 was almost in line with the recovered level reporting at 98.6% recovery. Moreover, the full year described the traffic resumption for total terminals. -- is even stronger if we look at the fourth quarter 2022, which reached 91.8% of the last quarter of 2019.
Turning to Slide 8. We can see that 2022 total growth revenue reached EUR 944.3 million, growing 12.9% year-on-year, in line with the provided guidance. As noted in the previous quarter, there is a shift in the relative wage of the various items within total revenue, when we do the usual year-on-year comparison. The main contribution 2022 growth comes from operative revenue cash in from airlines and no more from the balance credit as occurred in 2021, which was still heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
As you can see from the first graph, and to revenue doubled year-on-year and terminal revenue grew 61.7%, while total balance decreased from positive EUR 294.4 million in 2021 to negative EUR 14.8 million in 2022. In order to better understand what is included in this product balance, we need to distinguish between the balance related to the previous year reversal and the balance of generated in the year 2022. Balance reversal related to previous years has been positive for approximately EUR 12 million.
Balance generated in 2022 was negative for approximately EUR 27 million and is the sum of main 5 main airlines. The first one is a negative balance for approximately EUR 59 million due to the [indiscernible] traffic managed that was meaningfully higher than one included in the performance plan to be given back to the line in 2024. I -- number two, we have a negative balance for approximately $12 million related to the DNA and the EU brands to be given also this back to the lines, particularly for what concerned DNA that showed a lower actual amount versus the corresponding amount included in the performance run.
Number three, a positive balance for approximately EUR 35 million, driven by 2022 inflation that was materially higher at 8.7% then the 1.8% forecasted in the performance plan. Number four, positive balance for approximately $3 million coming from Euro cons adjustment. Number five, a positive balance for approximately EUR 6 million related to the achieved bonus on performance.
Let's now take a look to the not-regulated business, which as shown in the second graph, grew 21% above the provided guidance and thanks to all activities performed above -- turning page, we can see the costs we incurred in 2022 in comparison with the previous year. In 2022, total operating costs amounted to EUR 672.1 million, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year, in line with our expectations. -- both fixed and variable component of the personnel to, coupled with the social security contribution as well as external OpEx, which also showed a rise.
[indiscernible] went up by 9% year-on-year, variable remuneration we EUR 23.1 million year-on-year, mainly due to overtime and controllers in related to the increased number of life management, especially during the summer season with the related results in social security contributions. As you can see from the graph, fixed remuneration increased as well by EUR 20.9 million year-on-year, mainly because of the renewal of the economical part of the labor contract, which is by the end of 2019, -- it is worth noting that with this renewal.
We have recovered inflation for the last 3 years, 2020, 2021 and 2022, all group's employees. So what concern external OpEx, this also increased EUR 13 million year-on-year, primarily due to cost of energy, which grew approximately EUR 10 million out of the above mentioned EUR 13 million and was mainly driven by the Russian kind completed in fruition right. And the cost bonded in the not-regulated business for approximately EUR 6 million. With regard to inflation, let me remind you that analysts fully covered by its protective regulation. The delta between the ARPU inflation and the one included in the performance plan, generated $35 million total credit in 2022 that will be cashed in in 2024 throughout the use of balance mechanism.
Let's turn the page now to page -- sorry, Slide #10 in order to comment EBITDA and the movements below it. EBITDA showed a strong 22.4% growth year-on-year with margin at 28.8%, which means 2.2 percentage points better than the previous year. This performance came from the top line rise which easily absorbed the cost increase in the period has shown it slide. SG&A decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, mainly because of the reduced capital expenditure in the recent past.
As mentioned in the previous results calls, this item is expected to slightly a slow increase in the coming years as the new ATM platform currently under development will become operational. Moving to the provisions and write-downs, those increased EUR 2.6 million year-on-year, mainly due to the prudential write-down of the entire credit related to Russian activities, coupled with the one related to some airlines. -- what concerns net financial expenses, those amounted to EUR 0.5 million in 2022, mainly due to increased interest rate on that, which resulted in expenses in the year for a total of EUR 10.2 million, almost completely offset by the EUR 9.6 million of positive contribution from the balance actualization mechanism.
With regards to income taxes, we can see 18.5 million trees year-on-year, mainly due to the higher taxable income in the year compared with 2021, together with lower deferred taxes. As a result of this movement in the P&L, we recorded EUR 104.5 million of net profit, corresponding to a 33.9% increase year-on-year.
In the next slide, we summarize ENAV's liquidity and financial position, which, as you can see, remains very strong. We closed the year with EUR 280 million of cash and in additional undrawn credit lines for EUR 294 million, after which 220 million meters. Net financial debt stood at [indiscernible] and EUR 8 million, decreasing EUR 76 million compared with net debt of EUR 484 million as well then of 2021. I -- this reduction is mainly driven by the cash in coming from a high level of traffic managing 2022. In more detail, the $76 million of net debt reduction is mainly attributable to net cash in from operations for approximately EUR 237 million.
Cash outflows for approximately EUR 70 million related to the capital investment, a negative change for approximately EUR 33 million in noncurrent commercial debt. This is mainly related to gross negative balance to be returning to a line and the cash outflow for dividend payment. Therefore, net debt and EBITDA stood at 1.5x compared with 2.17x reaching at the end of 2021. Worth noting that yesterday evening, ENAV has finalized the refinancing of the term loan for EUR 100 million signed in 2021, and the term loan issued in 2022 also for EUR 180 million, both expired in July 2023, with a 3-year tenor term loan to be repaid in full -- in full upon maturity.
As part of the same transaction and with the steam bank and have signed also new commitment credit lines, a revolving credit facility for a total of EUR 150 million that will replace looks fine and available to the company.
Let me comment now the last slide, #13, before leaving the floor again to Paolo. Here, we can see our shareholder termination trend and 2022 dividend proposal. I'm glad to announce that has occurred for regulation and traffic. Also shareholder remuneration is back to normal. The Board of Directors has sold to propose to the Annual General Meeting to distribute a dividend in relation to the financial year 2022 for a total amount of EUR 106.5 million, equivalent to as was said before, duffing EUR 167 per share. These schemes from the application of our dividend policy in the measure of 80% of the free cash flow as per the policy itself. Record date will be 24th October 2023, with payment 25 October 2023 as done in 2022 and a given standard seasonality in our cash flow. And with that, I hand the call back to Paolo who will throw the presentation with our 2023 outlook and key takeaways.
Thank you, Luca. With regard to our 2023 outlook, we expect are traffic to be above recoveries, reaching 10.8 million service year. Sapa revenue are expected to grow low single digits year-on-year with no regulated revenue to increase high single digits. EBITDA is expected to grow low to mid-single digit year-on-year. CapEx is expected to rise at roughly EUR 100 million. Before opening the floor to your questions, let me provide with you a few takeaways. In 2022, traffic recovered almost to pre-pandemic level and is expected to grow further in the coming year, signing a return to normality. [indiscernible] was able to manage this increase better than our peers confirming another as one of the best performers in terms of safety and quality of service.
Therefore, the group posted a strong economical and financial results in both the core business and in the nonregulated segment. Those areas allowed the Board of Directors to result to propose at the Annual General Meeting, the distribution of EUR 106.4 million of dividend, equivalent to 0.1967 EORP per share. 2022 was also characterized by 3 relevant milestones. First of all, the approval of the Italian performance plan occurred in April after the approval of the 2022, 2024 business plan, which is part of the group's long-term strategic vision up to the year 2031 and the carbon neutrality reached by an which certifies our ESG commitment. In conclusion, the full year 2022 stronger results and events confirmed a back-to-normal situation and paved the way for additional growth in 2023 and subsequent figures. And with that, we are now ready to your question.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Ivar Billfalk-Kelly with UBS.
With the balance sheet now in a very strong position relative to where it was, what is the near-term capital allocation priority. Are there any M&A transactions that could be credibly completed in the near term? Or might we expect a higher shareholder remuneration in the absence of M&A? And secondly, revenues and EBITDA were modestly lower than the targets you presented at the time of the 3Q results. And given it was only presented relatively recently and you had fairly good visibility to long-term volumes.
Sorry, we see your line very badly. We have seriously figure in understanding your question. Could you try to do -- to repeat, please? Sorry.
That's okay. Is that any better now?
Yes, now it could be better...
Perfect. I'll start from the beginning again. Sorry about that. So with the balance sheet now in a very strong position compared to where it was before, what is the near-term capital allocation priority? Are there any M&A transactions that you could credibly do in the near term? Or could we expect higher shareholder remuneration? And secondly, revenue and EBITDA were modestly lower than the target you presented at the time of the 3Q results. And given that was only presented relatively recently and you had good visibility on volumes, what was it that drove the lower-than-expected result? And maybe finally, it's probably a little bit early to be asking this, but in the context of the high and rising interest rates, do you have a sense of how current yield could impact your WACC? And what sort of tailwind that might provide for tariffs beyond 2024?
Okay. For what concern, the first one, the capital allocation. yes, we confirm what our strategy at the moment is to follow 3 main, I would say, point. The first one to reset will be our capital structure after 2 years where we have burned a lot of cash. So part of that money that we will cash in also in the next year, we will be used to -- I mean just a small part of this at to reset a little bit our capital structure.
The second leg is to start to look at some M&A very focused M&A operation, if there will be something good that makes sense for our business, for our strategy, we will look at now that we are back to normal also in this area. And the third leg is the remuneration to our shareholders. As I said, our bus policy has the flexibility to give -- to increase the -- to manage the level of dividend given to our shareholders. So in the next year and according with our Board of Director and the CEO, we will -- we will use this flexibility also to manage the amount of money to give to the dividend to our shareholders.
Ivar, just to be sure we understood your second question. It was in regard to the WACC and possible, let's say, implication on this in the next regulatory period. Am I right.
Sorry, I don't know if you heard you yes, again exactly right.
Yes. I said that your second question was in -- with regards to the WACC and eventually return, let's say, on RAB for the next regulatory period. We do understand your question? Okay. As you can imagine, we are starting now to think about the new regulatory period. We will start to give some figures to the regulatory body by the end of May, but they will be just the first draft of a for discussion. But -- so -- and there will be a commission we used it for the first thinking or what could be the target that we give to other account in terms of performance.
I see that this means that it's a little bit early to talk about this point because as you can imagine, the performance plan will be -- we will start to think about to write down by the end of this year, at the beginning of next year. Say that we will look at also what will be approaching the open commission to this point. So our regulator, first of all, and second on what the real cost of capital on our sector, looking on the rise of the interest rate. And so we will -- I mean, we are thinking about strategies that in some way align our WACC to these parameters, but we still get comments we have to wait what will be the assumption and the idea of the incomes.
Perfect. And then in terms of the second question regarding why revenues and EBITDA came in a little bit lower than expected at the time of the 3Q results. What were the main drivers for that?
Sorry, Ivar, what you meant was a little bit lower in Q4 than Q3?
Well, at the time of the 3Q results, I believe, if I'm mistaken, you suggested that you have revenue growth of 15% and EBITDA growth of 25%, and we came in a little bit lower than that. So -- and just given it was presented to recently, I'm just trying to figure out what the delta was between your expectations then and reality now?
Yes. Let's say that basically, the few missing millions are related to the bonus on performance. as Luca said, some minutes of delay has been assigned to Italy, and we do not agree. So there is a process of review. And as a end of this process, we could have, let's say, a few millions benefit more. As of now, we have closed the account which was being certified and officially, let's say, declared by the regulator. And therefore, we prudentially included the approximately EUR 6 million that Luca mentioned previously. So that's the reason for the 1 percentage point that you can.
The next question comes from Aleksandra Arsova with Equita.
Some follow-up from the previous questions. So just to recap, what was the bonus actually recorded this year? It was EUR 6 million less than the effected just to check. And then the second one is on cost evolution. So with respect to the EUR 672 million we have this year in total cost. What evolution do you expect for 2023? And what are the assumptions behind it. And the very last one, given you recently refinanced your debt. So which is the cost of debt we should expect for 2023 and onwards, the average cost of debt vis-a-vis the one point something you had last year?
What concern the bonus, as Vittorio said, the point is some data have been attributed to Italy. Fourth, let me say, for reasons related to the country next to us, so we had some restriction, and this is reflected the flight that I was flying through our country versus to this country that taste. So we are talking with Euro control actually, and Euro control recognized actually, we are right because it's not our forces delayed on -- so they should be not attributed to Italy. -- now reviewing is processes going on.
So we prefer to use the standard -- I mean the Sisal value given by Eurocontrol that now is 0.07 versus 0.11 -- 11, sorry, that is the target even. And this has actually allowed us to reach, I'd say, more or less half of the EUR 12 million that you said Aleksandra -- say that after the review that will come the next month, I don't know how much you will take euro control to come up with the final data. We will adjust the amount of money we will recover in 2023.
So it's not really a problem, but it -- as I'm sure you said, we want to be in some way prudential on this as we actually year not the final venue. -- that the evolution the cost evolution, you should keep a belief in 2% increase also because this is something that was agreed with personnel and the renewal as at least the attrition that we should recognize the planned inflation that we are recognizing for 2020.
So keep this as a general guidance for cost evolution. So what concern so the last one, I will cross or that for 2023. I said, we have renewed some lines, some loans. These are variable ones. So there will be -- that also will depend also on the cost will depend on the interest rate that will move the next year. In the next -- sorry, this next month. More or less, if you keep the value that we have in 2022 and rise, let me say, a couple millions, maybe EUR 2 million, 3 million, so at the moment, the forecast that we are using at the moment.
And so sorry to interrupt, this potential EUR 6 additional million from the bonus if your control agree to give them to you will be on top of your current guidance on 2023 on EBITDA right?
If you reach the Maximum target, yes, it depends on if 100% of this delay will be recognized to Italy, I mean not the delay will be recognized is other than a different percentage. But it could be, yes, 5, 4, 6, depending on the evolution. But the answer is yes, this will be on the top on the next, I would say, balance that will ask in 2023.
The next question comes from John Campbell with Bank of America.
I've just 1 or 2 on RP4. Basically, does generally expect that sort of key features of that regulation, such as traffic risk protection and inflation protection are likely to be carried over into the next regulatory period. I saw you provided a little bit of a time line, but when could we expect sort of public documents to be released by the European Commission?
And then I had a second question related to the labor agreement. So I understand that covers inflation for 2020 to 2022. So how long does this agreement last? And how is it going to be a inflation inevitably in 2023 and beyond? And perhaps my last question is on the CapEx. So as far as I understand, you target EUR 350 million across 2022 to 2024. So far, you've done about 200. So presumably -- or should say you're planning to do 200 by the end of 2023. -- presumably, we're going to see an acceleration in 2024, if you commit to that to that general EUR 350 million market.
Okay. So we can serve the new regulation that we could expect for RP3 or RP4, right? In general terms, I guess, there is not enough time to make a big change to the [indiscernible] regulation. So at the moment, what we foresee to have confirmed all the main let me say point of our regulation in terms of traffic risk sharing mechanism, inflation protection, so balance mechanism. So the main mechanism will be not -- we don't expect that there will be changed for concern, the regulation in general. But this will be the first point that the commission will -- the regulator will analyze and in some way, confirm within -- we expect this year because this is the first step. After that, they will fix -- they were defined and they will negotiate with the state the target, the performance target in terms of cost efficiency and quality of services.
So the economic and operative targets. After that, we will prepare the since we prepare the performance plan to discuss and to be approved by European Commission as the European regulator within the national authority that for Italy is enough with the CFM. So that the time line would be by the end of this year, we expect to have all confirm and define the regulatory framework, so the regulation.
And right after that, let me say, together with that, they will start the first negotiation, the first negotiation for thinking of the European Commission with the set about the target, the European common target, cost efficiency quality. And let me say, by March, April 2024 at the most started with the performance plan to give to the commission within the summer break, so June, July 3, 4 months of analysis, then short discussion. And if you think it will be seeing, we can close next year with the performance plan approved and by the 1st January 2025 with the new tariff applied. That is the general idea of time line that we expect. -- the labor contract is 3 years level contract. So we expect to have 23, 4 and 5 -- sorry, 23 24 25 in some we covered at the least, we were concerned the inflation. Yes, right. Sorry.
The other point is the -- what we have recognized for the labor agreement there's a few percent for each year for the next 3 years. That's what is planned. For what concerns CapEx, yes, you're right. This is right. We are having now -- we are slowing a little bit down our CapEx just for 2 main reasons, but it's not so much, actually. But the main reasons are related to the problem for Porch, now that there is some general problem to get the materials and goods and -- so we are a little bit slowing our process.
And the second point, we are analyzing. We are understanding how to better improve develop or implement the new cybersecurity law that we have in Italy that in some way, ask us to manage in our contract this point. So some related to cyber security and the test that we have to do to the items that we buy, the goods that we buy. This has to be in some way implemented number process. We are together with the national authority talking with them understanding what we, as other company in Italy, understanding how to better manage this issue.
This is another item that will, in some way, is going a little bit down our process. In some ways, we think that definitely -- sorry, final, we think that we may, in some way, catch back in the next month, next year, our investment. In the moment, we don't have any strategy issue at the moment related to our investment [indiscernible] strategy and strategic -- sorry, the strategic investment, we will see in the next month...
Mr. Campbell, do you have any additional questions?
I guess if I could ask maybe on the en-route traffic guidance. Okay. So I see that you're guiding for basically volumes 2% above pre COVID for the full year 2023. We've already seen on route volumes basically 3.3% above. So could that be argued that it's somewhat conservative? I also noticed that in 2022, on route traffic significantly outperformed the original projection of 85% and outperformed by about 10 percentage points. So is your traffic guidance generally conservative?
Yes, John. What we have used for 2023 is the euro control of each forecast for Italy, the October sub-focus that foreseen for Italy, 2.3% increase versus 2019 figures. You're right. January and February, we had increased in Temenos 3.3%. But keep in mind that the decrease in January, it is important. That's definitely important, but not as much as in the summer season. So the summer season is the one that will move the number for us. Say that, we use, as I said, the forecast that Eurocontrol officially published. The new forecast will be given by Eurocontrol in the next few, let me say, weeks, we believe that will be a little bit better for Italy.
And if this will be, we will be very happy for it. But always keep in mind that our tariffs and our revenue but what our tariff is set on the traffic on the performance plan. So even if the forecast change month by month, this is a fact that not our tariff affected to some revenue this is definitely important. But it's very important to understand, it's a really different position. So it's always better to perform -- to use, let me say, the closest forecast official forecast that then changes during the year other than having forecasted and we are not in line what is the general feeling of traffic forecast in Europe. Did I answer your question?
The next question comes from Nicolo Pessina with Mediobanca.
Just a couple of questions. The first one on the dividend. Can you explain why you decided to maintain the payment in October rather than returning to regular distribution in April or May now that profit has nearly recovered the preprofit level? And the second question on Aireon. I wonder if you can give us any visibility on dividends? And if there has been any write-down of the value of this equity participation in the 2023 numbers.
I'll walk you through the first question, while we are paying the dividend in October to pay out our shareholders following the cash in from the good summer season. That's the main reason that we expect that we have this year, while maintaining, at the same time, a strong balance sheet. So that's the main reason why we are -- we decided October. For what concerned Aerion, as you have seen in our balance sheet, actually, there is a reciting of the performance -- sorry, of the business plan long term for business plan. And on the base of this, mainly related to the FAA contract that probably will delay a little bit from what were the previous forecast will be a couple of years. And this will this in some way, move the revenue and the dividend flow in the next year. And that's the reason why we had this write-down of our share.
[Operator Instructions] Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us on this call. Thank you, Paolo. Thank you, Luca, for any further questions. You may have, please feel free to follow up with the team. And that, we thank you again, and we wish you a good evening.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones. Thank you.