Anima Holding SpA

MIL:ANIM

Earnings Call Transcript 2019-Q2

[Operator]

Good evening. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the ANIMA Holding's First Half 2019 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marco Carreri, CEO of ANIMA Holding. Please go ahead, sir.

[Marco Carreri, executive]

Hello, everybody. Thank you for attending to our conference call commenting the first half results 2019. Let me start as always from Page 4 for some highlights about our company, starting with commercial. We reached the strongest AUM of ever, above EUR 180 billion, thanks to strong market performance that contributed to increase the assets.

Concerning the net new money, we closed the first half with a result of minus EUR 600 million, but not considering Class I mandates with different color between retail institution as we can see later on.

Moving to financial. Net commissions up 1%, above EUR 140 million, EUR 63 million net income and EUR 79 million adjusted net income. Let me highlight the EBITDA margin, well above guidance in term of recurrent EBITDA.

Moving to Page 5, business by segment. We not have any material changes in the split between retail institutional, with the retail accounting on above EUR 54 million, but accounting for 30% of total AUM, while institutional is 70%. Retail highly dominated by strategic partner controlling around 87% of total retail AUM, while institutional component we have Poste controlling around 2/3 of total AUM followed by insurance, unit linked and fund user and subadvisors.

Moving to Page 6. We have the AUM evolution. We have 3 blocks represented by net new money, market effect and the delta in terms of AUM in Class I component. So looking at the retail -- retail split, you can see a very different color between institutional, well above EUR 1 billion of net -- positive net new money, while a certain sufferance in the retail segment with EUR 1.5 billion of net outflows.

Considering the market effect, EUR 4.2 billion robust growth in the retail, institutional thus excluding the Class I that is a positive contribution for EUR 3.8 billion to the growth of total AUM.

Page 7, we have the mutual fund investment performance. As you can see is very robust and very close to 5%. If we compare our performance with the rest of the industry, you can see that we are slightly underperforming due in general to a more cautious approach on both risky assets and in ratio in the portfolios of our mutual funds.

I think that now we are entering the second section, commenting financial performance. So I give the floor to Alessandro Melzi, our General Manager.

[Alessandro d'Eril, executive]

Thank you, Marco. Hi to everybody. I will start from Page 9, the P&L overview. Total revenues registered in the first half -- total revenues for approximately EUR 162 million, including EUR 9.6 million of performance fees. These are performance fees we register monthly. So we can exhibit in our income statement regularly this kind of performance fees, while we had performance fees compared to the branch not registered only at the end of the year that are not included in the income statement in the first half.

Total expenses down to EUR 41 million -- EUR 41.5 million, down EUR 1 million as compared to last year first half.

Our EBITDA ratio mostly EUR 121 million for the first half. Net income EUR 63.3 million, and adjusted net income EUR 79 million approximately. The difference as compared to 2018 is mainly related to performance fees, LTIP and the increase in D&A related to the acquisition of BAMI closing in 2018.

On the right side of the page, profitability. The average margin reflect in the first half the full integration of large institutional volumes that we have bought last year from Poste and from Banco and these brings our average profitability to approximately 16 basis point. The retail profitability is in line with the Q1 profitability.

On the cost/income side, you can see the strong commitment to the consistency that we -- in keeping with low-cost base, both looking at the cost to income on total revenues and the total revenues ex performance fees, that continue to decrease as compared to last year first half result.

Tax rate. The tax rate is showing an increase given the concentration of our investment management activities in Italy, also the investment management activities previously focused and concentrated in Ireland. This is mitigated by a one-off tax relief from goodwill accounting approximately for EUR 60 million in the net income, but then we'll get on it later on.

Page 10, our ratio. The revenue margin is in line with the upper part of what we expected for H1. So we are over 17 basis point. So in the upper part of the range [ registered ] to the market, the margin is reflecting limited contribution of placement fees, mainly due to lower gross flows registered this year in the first half. And also is including strong market effect registered in the institutional segment, mainly on the AUM of the Class I mandates where we registered more than EUR 2.7 billion of market effect positive.

We also have been able to register better-than-expected results in the cost control. The OpEx are 4.7 basis point on AUM. As a result, overall, we registered an EBITDA over our -- above our guidance and constantly we [ go ] over 70% on net commissions, excluding performance fees.

Page 11 is -- as you can see, the fees -- the evolution of fees quarter-by-quarter. In the second quarter of this year, basically, we have been able to offset the effect of lower placement fees and the contribution of large institutional mandate that expired during Q2 last year with the change in perimeter on the net fees side.

Looking at the cost side on the right part of the page, you can see what we said before. The fixed component declining of cost of -- of personnel cost declining also due to lower account related to synergies on acquisitions closed last year.

Page 12, staying on cost. Basically, we've been able to register a decrease in total expense of 7% like -- on a like-for-like basis. This means, excluding the change in the perimeter registered last year, so the cost that will drop on our income statement through the acquisition of the BAMI insurance mandate and the Class I Poste business.

If you look at the component -- this different component in the cost is the OpEx that is registering the stronger decrease.

Page 13. As I said before, in H1 2019, we registered positive one-off effect due to tax relief on goodwill. Basically, looking at the incorporation of the Class I insurance mandates of Poste, this generated the EUR 44 million of goodwill approximately, and EUR 107 million were defined as intangible to be amortized over 15 years.

Basically, according to the current tax rules applicable for companies like ours -- like us, we paid upfront 16% taxation. And as a consequence, we register as a one-off effect on the net income for the year approximately EUR 6 million of positive effect.

You can see the details in this slide in terms of cash flow and what we registered in the income statement.

Page 14, consolidated net financial position. We reached EUR 328 million in end of H1 2019, is increasing as compared to end of 2018 because of the closing of the debt program and the dividend and the payments for the subsidiaries from the 2 deals we just mentioned.

If you look at the Holding level, the net financial position is approximately EUR 520 million. As you know at the Holding level, we -- is where we typically do extraordinary transaction and where we look at our financial position.

I give back the floor to Marco for closing remarks.

[Marco Carreri, executive]

Thank you, Alessandro. Before entering in the closing remark, let me comments on some charts, starting from Page 16. I believe this is the chart that could surprise some of you. In fact, one of the most popular concern is with our business model, wrongly considered overcome in particular if compared with financial budget model based on a misperception and some of you is gaining market share in the last year and looking forward also.

If you look at the chart, you can see that the chart produced by Assogestioni showed the trade body of Italian asset managers association is showing exactly the opposite. If you look the numbers in both absolute and relative term, you can see how banks are gaining market share. This is the time horizon considered from 2014 to 2017. We are expecting the official data on 2018, but let me comment that [a form that I ] received comfort that there are no relevant changes in the distribution model in Italy.

So saying that, it's clear that if you go to Page 17, you can share with us that having so unique position in the market still dominated by banks, we [ wrongly ] believe to have also looking for a winning position. I say so also not denying that in some period of time, as it happened, if you look at the last -- the first 4 months of this year and each banks are clearly focused on other banking activities, such as borrowing money, as we know, or on other or selling out different financial product different rather than [ asset-winning ] products, as it happened with the

certain certificates.

But clearly, we remain really, really confident that we can realize excellent commercial results, still cooperating with banks, also considering how much this business remain strategic for them in term of generator of commissions.

Just to -- one comment on Page 18, that after having showed you the chart with the distribution strategic banking partners to confirm our presence on -- with the relationship with Poste, that is controlling around with 30,000 branches and having holding more than 10% of total [indiscernible] wealth, so I believe that having with them 15 years agreement represent a unique opportunity for us, not forgetting that we have in addition to this a further 80 distribution agreements, so in some ways covering all the Italian platform in term of banks and financial advisors networks.

Page 19, allow me to move to -- from organic to an organic activity. Let me spend a few minutes for giving you some clarification that I believe that it's appropriate to give you having received some concern about how we want to manage the M&A activities looking forward.

Let me say that we never believed that M&A could subject to organic growth that remain a fundamental driver for us. We always considered M&A as a wish and not a must. So that desire becomes reality, the deal we consider must be in any case accretive for our shareholders.

If we look backwards, all the deals realized in the last decade when I manage the company were fully accretive for our shareholders. Let me also remind that we gave up pursuing a couple of deals, such as Pioneer and Carige Asset Management because those deals appeared not in line with our metrics. So there are no -- I believe, that there are no reason at all to think we change this approach also looking forward clearly.

Of course, let me also say that we are fully aware that the current multiple doesn't help in pursuing potential M&A deals, but we want to assure you once again that we would also take into consideration this aspect, if we had to evaluate an M&A deal.

So I think that we are going to conclude. So let me make some closing remarks.

So I move to Page 20, starting with commercial. We consider the fourth -- the first 5 months very weak and well below our expectation, in particular April and May were very difficult months. We are seeing right now a better environment, in particular, last 2 months, I mean, June and the July. This is going to be closed. We see better flows in -- not only in for ANIMA, but in general for the rest of the industry. So it means that retail customers appear less reluctant to invest. And let me also add that in my perspective also banking branches appear more focus in selling mutual funds and in general asset management product with less concern in approaching customers.

If we move from commercial to financial, the second quarter show a very good result on both the top and bottom line. If you look at the top line, let me highlight the net commission margin remain solid, with very good standout performance in financial markets that permit us not only to support the AUM growth, but also allowed that to newly book performance fees on fund with absolute high watermark mechanism in Q2 and let me also add that the trend continued so far.

Moving from the top to the bottom line, it's very well known, our strong discipline and it's continued to work very well. As Alessandro showed you, permitting our cost base to remain very, very lean.

Last but not least, let me please spend a couple of minutes dealing with people. This is important in a business like the one that we are running. When generally speaking, I say people I'm referring to my people, I mean, the ANIMA's manager and team. The most of them is working with me in the last decade and so experiencing with me many good moments, but also some bad moments, mainly due to the cyclicality of our industry.

But this year, they had together with me to face very difficult first half characterized by stock price not performing at all. It flows lack of confidence of some of you. Sometimes, more than some of you. Well, approximately 2 months ago, it was at the end of June or May, early June, we decided altogether to invest additionally in the share of ANIMA. Well, many of us were already strong investor in the company. And so we did it for once again to demonstrate how much we trust in what we are doing and how much we trust in ANIMA's future looking forward, but in particular, looking on a short-term basis on the second half just started that we consider as a good proxy of what we can do also looking forward because we see much better than the previous one.

So I think that I have concluded. So we can enter in the Q&A session.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Gian Luca Ferrari with Mediobanca.

[Gian Ferrari, analyst]

Three questions. The first one is on flows. I understand also July could be a positive month for what you just said. I just want to understand if it is all due to the inflows into unit linked that BAMI or also retail funds at BAMI are contributing positively this month? The second question is on the extraordinary results you reported on OpEx, minus 8.9% year-on-year. I was wondering if you can guide us for full year '19? Will this line go down mid-single-digit or something like that? Or it will normalize more on a slight year-on-year figure? The last question is on the EUR 600 million bank loan you have and issued at the end of 2017 for Gestielle. Is there any room for any refinancing that bank loan given what interest rates did over the past few weeks? Or technically and legally speaking, that cannot be touched?

[Marco Carreri, executive]

Gian Luca, this is Marco. The answer concerning the BAMI and flows, let me comment that July, we are missing 4 calendar days before closing the demands, in term of certainly closed loan. Let me say that we have made different [ errors ] and positive ground considering generally our distribution network on both the retail institution in general term, so it's a positive month. High -- we expect high double-digit results in term of flows. Looking specifically BAMI, let me say that we expect a positive result on both unit linked and [ mutual ] fund business.

[Alessandro d'Eril, executive]

Gian Luca, Alessandro speaking. On the OpEx side, let's say that we have been able to have a very good cost control in this first part of the year, and we believe that we will continue in the second part of the year. And we -- I don't believe that this -- that the advantage we have compared to H1 2018 will be doubled in the second part of the year, but we will continue to stay. If you look at the full year, we'll be down as compared to 2018 for sure. And on the only variable that we cannot control are the variable mainly linked to performance fees, but in this case if you have -- the cost you have also the revenue. On the refinancing side, we -- of course, from a legal standpoint, you can always renegotiate it or refinance the line you have. Of course, this is a very interesting market environment. We are monitoring the situation, so -- because we are not linked to this structure forever.

[Operator]

The next question is from Luigi De Bellis with Equita SIM.

[Luigi De Bellis, analyst]

Three questions for me. The first one, how do you see the revenues margins trend in the coming quarters after the solid results in second quarter? The second question, do you see room for a new institutional mandates in the second half of the year? And last question on the MiFID II, have you seen any change in the market share at your distribution partner?

[Alessandro d'Eril, executive]

Hello, Alessandro speaking, hi. We are looking at the margins, we believe that -- I mean the level of profitability we reached is sustainable for the rest of the year. As we mentioned, the first quarter as compared to last year was affected by -- on the retail side, by lower level of placement fee. And we've seen and we believe that this level is now stabilized. So -- and we believe that the level we reached today is sustainable on the [ plus ] side. Institutional mandates, to be honest, we don't see a particular, let's say, extraordinary mandates going in or out. So we don't have a particular expectations on this side. Of course, we are doing continuously our business. So we are fighting everyday trying to attract mandates, but as much in particular, higher demand.

[Marco Carreri, executive]

Hi, Luigi. The third question referred to MiFID II impact. At this stage, let me say, we are not seeing significant impacts on the distribution business from MiFID II. I'm referring in particular to the increased transparency in the statement that it is clearly the most significant change. In our best knowledge, the first statement are going to be sent or just sent to customers in this period. So we have to wait a couple of months to better understand, but let me also say that talking with distributor we received a somewhat less concern feedback, also consider strong market performer that clearly helped them a lot in discussing with customers with the old statement and the new pressure result that are much, much better than what they lost last year.

[Operator]

The next question is from Federico Braga with UBS.

[Federico Braga, analyst]

Just one question actually on buyback. What's the likelihood of seeing a continuation of the buyback in the second half of the year considering that M&A could happen later right than sooner? And have you consider the possibility of buying back shares to build up the sort of shares inventory that you could eventually use also for M&A in the coming quarters in a scenario where your multiple could be more supportive?

[Marco Carreri, executive]

Hi, Federico. This is Marco. Let me say that looking at buyback, we received some request from shareholders. And clearly, we take into consideration. Also consider that from a financial standpoint, it's clearly a very good investment to buy ANIMA shares at these levels. However, we believe that the role of us as a management of this company should be to look at the best allocation of capital in medium or long term. And so we believe that at this stage, we need to assess the best growth option, organic or via M&A before deciding what to do in term of buybacks.

[Operator]

The next question is from Elena Perini with Banca IMI.

[Elena Perini, analyst]

I've got 3 questions. The first one is on the level of performance fees that you have recorded in July, if you can tell us about it. The second one is on Slide #6. Can you please split the EUR 3.8 billion change in Class I AUM between net inflows and market performance? The final one is about your other income in the first half of the year. This EUR 2.9 million, can you tell us about the composition of this item on the P&L?

[Alessandro d'Eril, executive]

Hi, Elena. Alessandro speaking. Well, on the performance fees side, as Marco mentioned before, we had done pretty well in the first quarter -- in the second quarter. Let's say, the market is positive. We are not -- well, let's say, for the July performance fees, we have to wait until the Q3 results. On the other income, the other income is mainly related to the positive performance effect on the investments of profitability of the group. And then as minor items, such as small positive price adjustment from the past, the recurrent. Marco for ...

[Marco Carreri, executive]

Hi, Elena. About Chart 6, please let me say that consistent with our press release, we don't disclose the split between flows and AUM. The reason lies on the fact that we consider this as a very low profitability in this mandate. So we don't want you to mix and we believe there are no reasons to make an additional disclose.

[Operator]

The next question is from Alberto Villa with Intermonte.

[Alberto Villa, analyst]

Very quick questions from my side. The first one is on products. You've gone through a very tough period, as you mentioned, in terms of inflows. And that is now seems to be over, but I wanted to ask you if is there any new product or new, let's say, investment that you elaborate with your banking partners in order to try to revert this trend during the first half that you want to comment and may be helpful to understand what could be, I mean, something that may work going forward. Of course, markets are important, but maybe you elaborate some new offering that may allow you to capture more inflows going forward. The second one is just trying to understand if you can help us better modeling how we can, let's say, forecast the variable personnel compensation considering the potential contribution from performance fees. So how this is affecting variable compensation? And how we should look at it? And finally, if you can just remind us what is a normalized tax rate going forward given the increasing, let's say, contribution from Italian side of the business?

[Marco Carreri, executive]

Berto, let me start from products. We made a press release in which we make a comment on a new fund, a target-date fund launched at the -- just launched at the 1.5 -- 1 or 2 months ago. The name of the fund is primopasso. Let me say that this target-date fund, specifically targeted for moving customers that maintain liquidity on cash is at 3 years target-date fund investing in a very prudent approach in which there are basically a portion -- relevant portion Italian govies plus corporate plus a small, small exposure to flexible equity. We had very good result in the last 5, 6 weeks considering that is specifically targeted for new customers coming from retail, but from -- also, from small corporate entities. In addition to -- see we are planning with the network, in particular, due to -- in some way reduce volatility in considering that the market moved up very strongly in the last 6 months, also in some way to invest on considering timing diversification. So based on rebound in dollar cost average plans and some new target-date funds replicating our successful [indiscernible] strategy, but considering also timing diversification strategy for the equity components. So in some ways, we start with no equity in step-by-step, we increase the equity consistently with in any case a balance fund at the end of the period of investing in equity component and divesting from fixed income.

[Alberto Villa, analyst]

Sorry, the profitability of these products is comparable to the retail average profitability or it's kind of lower?

[Marco Carreri, executive]

It depends on which kind of product. Clearly, primopasso is low profitability, being this fund in some ways, we consider it a very smart solution that in some ways permit the customer to consider like monetary fund, but in which the composition of the product is different, but a very -- in some ways conservative approach consider the scenario of very low environment in terms of yields.

[Alessandro d'Eril, executive]

On the variable compensation, Alberto, well, we -- as you know, we debate the portion of the -- manager portion of the performance fees we capture on the -- our watermark funds, funds with the watermark calculation methodology. We don't disclose the percentage also because these values should be calculated as many exceptions. So this is something we don't provide the information. On the tax rate side, we apart from this year, that we'll have a lower tax rate because of the one-off that I already mentioned. Run rate, we expect something in the region of 33%.

[Operator]

The next question is from Filippo Prini with Kepler.

[Filippo Prini, analyst]

Two questions from my side. On inflows, beside your positive comment on July, could you give us an update on your full year guidance of inflows for 2019? And the second point, could you please comment on some general term the minimum -- sort of minimum guarantee protection for you on the contract with your main distributors?

[Marco Carreri, executive]

Hi, Filippo. This is Marco. About the flow guidance, as you well know, at the end of the -- at the early stage of the year, we gave you a guidance of flows in term of EUR 112 billion that we consider at that time, but also up to now reasonable and in line with our growth expectation if you consider this is approximately EUR 100 million per month. Clearly, having much less months left, the guidance is much more challenging than at the early stage of the year. However, we decided to maintain it even if it's much more challenging for main -- for 2 reasons, the good result in June and July that were above the EUR 100 million per month. Secondly, because we want, as a manager of the company, maintain very focus on achieving this target, that we'll maintain. So I believe that now it's Alessandro for another question.

[Alessandro d'Eril, executive]

Yes, Filippo. On the minimum guarantee, we have basically sort of minimum guarantee related to the last 2 contracts we signed. One with Poste, one with -- and the other one with BAMI. On the Poste side, we have pressure in terms of share of asset we have to manage on the Class I large mandate and the share in terms of mutual funds, we can manage for them. At least for the 15 years. On the BAMI side, on the 20-year contract, we have internal and external market share on mutual funds. Internal means portion of funds one more fund over the total. External means funds of BAMI Group over the market -- compared to the market. And then for the first year of the contract, we also have a commitment in terms of ANIMA inflows.

[Filippo Prini, analyst]

A brief follow-up, if we may, on this latest point on BAMI and the minimum guarantee of the inflows. Is it fair assuming that given the trend of the last 1.5 years or '18 and part of '19, you should be entitled to receive this compensation?

[Alessandro d'Eril, executive]

Not really, not really, I would say. Because, let's say, that the BAMI in the last 1.5 years, the BAMI network in reality did pretty well. They only had couple of -- 2 or 3 months, tough months this year, but overall the -- in the last 1.5 years, the performance of the network was pretty good actually.

[Operator]

The next question is from [indiscernible]

[Unknown Analyst]

Yes. Can you hear me? Hello?

[Marco Carreri, executive]

Yes.

[Alessandro d'Eril, executive]

Yes.

[Unknown Analyst]

You mentioned in your comments that the management bought some shares and I went on your website and I could not find this information. Can you be specific on any shares that bought and at what price and when, please?

[Marco Carreri, executive]

The number of manager were around 30 managers investing EUR 800,000. So yes, around $900,000.

[Unknown Analyst]

And the price paid?

[Marco Carreri, executive]

Around 2.7.

[Unknown Analyst]

Well done. And on the acquisition, I understand it's nice to have, but not necessary. I think there were some talk about Arca, and where are you on this potential deal in Italy?

[Marco Carreri, executive]

About Arca, in our best knowledge Arca is undergoing a strategic review. We always declare in the past that we could be interested in discussing with them. So we didn't change any position on this possible target.

[Unknown Analyst]

The talks are going on? Or they have decided on other strategic partners?

[Marco Carreri, executive]

Not between us and the shareholders of Arca at all. They are in internal undergoing review. So they're internally [ passing ] up the future of Arca. Just both the 40% stake belonging previously to Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca. So I believe that [indiscernible] holds 96% approximately of the share capital of Arca. So they can decide whatever they want to do. And so we are available to discuss if there is a chance to do it. No any pressure, no any emergency on our side.

[Operator]

Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

[Marco Carreri, executive]

So I think that we have concluded. So thank you very much. We remain fully available me, Alessandro and in particular, Fabrizio Armone, to -- for additional questions, and have a nice day and nice evening.

[Alessandro d'Eril, executive]

Nice holidays also. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.