Iberdrola SA

MAD:IBE

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q1

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. First of all, we would like to offer a warm welcome to all of you who have joined us today for our 2022 first quarter results presentation. As usual, we will follow the normal format given in our presentations. We will begin with an overview of the results and the main development during the period given by the senior executive team that is with us: our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Ignacio Galan; Mr. Armando Martinez, Business CEO; and finally, Mr. Pepe Sainz, CFO. Following this, we'll move on to the Q&A session.

I would also like to highlight that we are only going to take questions submitted via the web. So please ask your question only through our web page, www.iberdrola.com.

Finally, we expect that today's event will not last more than 60 minutes. Hoping that this presentation will be useful and informative for all of you. Now without further ado, I would like to give the floor to our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Ignacio Galan. Thank you very much again. Please, Mr. Galan.

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

Thank you, Ignacio. Good morning, everyone, and thank you very much for your participation in today's conference call. Before starting this presentation, I would like to dedicate a few words of solidarity to the people of Ukraine. Their strength and courage are an example for the whole world. Our thoughts are with them. We hope this invasion will end as soon as possible, reinstating peace and freedom for all Europeans.

Moving to the first quarter results. Net profit reached EUR 1,058 million, up 3% as the contribution of international businesses, in particular, in United States and Brazil with net profit increases of 33% and 20%, offset the 29% decrease in the net profit in Spain to the impact of the high energy prices that were not passed on to our customers with fixed prices agreed previously.

EBITDA increase is 5% to EUR 2,151 million, driven by growth in networks, while production and customer was negatively affected by high prices in Spain, as mentioned, and as well in the U.K. Gross investment reached EUR 2,100 million for a total close to EUR 10 billion in the last 12 months, during which we installed 3,500 megawatts of new renewable capacity with 7,500 under construction that will provide additional growth in the future.

Of this capacity, 2,600 megawatts correspond to offshore wind in France, Germany, United States, where we have signed new PPAs for 1,200 megawatt in Massachusetts. In addition, we have already received planning consent for the whole 2,900 megawatt in East Anglia Hub in the U.K., giving more visibility to our growth in offshore wind over the next decade.

In networks, we have also accelerated investment in all geographies, adding EUR 100 million to our asset base, including new transmission project in U.K. and Brazil. We have managed to combine this expansion with a balanced business and financial profile following the path of the last 2 decades, putting us in an optimal position to navigate the macro and commodity scenario created by the invasion of Ukraine and the recovery after the pandemic.

We have shown more than ever the need to undo the dependency of fossil fuels, especially, notably, like European Union, given its high share of energy imports, which, in the case of gas reached 90% of the total consumption, more than 45% from Russian origin. And the solution is to accelerate electrification through more investment in renewable networks and storage.

We have expanded renewable faster. Today, we will have -- we will be far less vulnerable to external shocks. We know the way to get there: the framework created by European climate law, the Green Deal, and the Fit for 55 Package, which now I could also be called Fit for Self-Sufficiency.

So the solution to this crisis will come from more Europe and more coordinated action following the guidelines set by European Commission in the Toolbox and the Repower EU communication. Every time Europe has remained united, things had gone well for Europeans, especially during crisis. So instead of trying to create a special regional exception, like one proposed by the Iberia market, we must look for common solutions. Even more, when the situation in Spain is not different from the rest of Europe. Spot and forward prices are similar or below other European countries. Spain is not an energy island. Our 8% nominal interconnection capacity become 20% if we consider our share of renewals in the calculation of peak demand or even 30% compared to average demand.

The utilization factor in interconnection and the price convergence between Spain and France shows that these markets are well integrated. And finally, there are no windfall profit, as you can see in our results. But there is one aspect in which, unfortunately, Spain is different: the wrong design of the regulated tariff, which is linked to the volatility of spot prices, when even in Portugal with the same wholesale market has a totally different system, linking to a basket of forward prices.

Other European countries do not even have regulatory tariff, which, in fact, are expected to disappear in Europe by 2025 unless countries justify the need for them. So what we need is to incentivate the acceleration of the deployment of clean energies to promote long-term contracts, for instance, through tax incentive for consumers and to support market-based solutions for the long term.

As a principle, we must avoid taking a structural measure to solve a short-term situation, solve of our question in the functioning of electricity market. We believe the market are working correctly, just reflecting an extraordinary situation created by gas market dynamics. We do know post market improvement, but they have to be done in a coordinated way and designed for the long term after careful and rational analysis.

The assessment of wholesale market designed by the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, ACER, that will be completed in May is a great opportunity and Iberdrola is ready to continue contributing to this analysis, following our strong belief in the need for a fluent dialogue between agents and administration.

Moving to operational results. EBITDA reached almost EUR 3 billion, up to 5%, showing the group strong underlying performance, thanks to the increasing contribution of international businesses, which represent 2/3 of the total, proving the optimal geographical diversification of Iberdrola businesses. Network EBITDA grew 20%, represented 54% for the total operating result, thanks to the high asset base in all geographies and increased revenues driven by tariff reviews mainly in U.S. and Brazil. The EBITDA of energy production and customers was down 9%, affected by lower wind and hydro factors in several geographies.

The already solved unplanned nuclear outage of our Cofrentes power plant was offset by the positive impact of our ruling in Spain and the negative performance in retail in U.K. and Spain due to the need to buy energy in wholesale market at prices that we are not passed to our customers with fixed price contracts.

We also had the contribution of 3,500 new renewable megawatts installed during the last 2 months, with significant increases in installed capacity in Brazil, up 15% after the commissioning of Chafariz complex to close to 500 megawatts; and the rest of the world, where capacity increased 30% year-on-year driven by new wind, solar PV and battery storage facilities.

As mentioned, we have continued the acceleration of our investment. In the last 12 months, we have reached close to EUR 10 billion, thanks to EUR 2,116 million invested during the first quarter with more than 90% allocated to networks and renewables.

Network investment represents 38% of the total with growth coming mainly from Brazil and Spain. Renewables contributed more than half of total investment driven mainly by the U.K., where we have multiplied our investment by 3, in line with the increasing ambition of the British government. Investment increased also in United States, Brazil and the rest of the world, mainly in offshore wind in France, in Germany, in onshore wind and solar in Australia.

In the last 12 months, we have installed 3,500 new megawatts of capacity: 1,200 corresponds to solar PV mostly in Spain and the U.S. and Australia; 1,100 in onshore wind primarily in Brazil, United States and rest of the world; and more than 1,000 to storage driven mainly by giga battery in Portugal, the Tamega hydro-pumping storing facility, a new battery storage in the U.K. and Australia.

On top of that, we have more than 7,500 currently under construction: 1/3 is in Spain, almost another 1/3 United States and the remaining 35% in the rest of the world and Brazil. By technologies, its capacity under construction include almost 2,600 in offshore wind in United States and Europe; 3,400 megawatt of solar PV, 1,400 onshore wind and 200 megawatt of storage technology, including the third dam of the Tamega pump storage hydro complex and 50 megawatt of battery storage located in the U.K.

We expect this acceleration of new capacity to continue in the coming months and years, supported by our pipeline of 90,000 megawatts in geographies with increasing clean energy ambition in different routes to market, including customer-base bilateral contracts and PPAs as well as auctions, allowing us to be selective to maximize return and minimize risk.

In United States, we have more than 22,000, of which 5,300 are offshore wind, 2,600 onshore and 14,000 solar PV. In Spain and Portugal, we have 16,000 mostly in solar PV, hydro and onshore wind. In U.K., over the last year, we more than doubled our pipeline to reach 15,000 megawatts mostly in offshore wind, thanks to the positive result of the ScotWind auction, where ScottishPower was awarded sea bed rights for 3 projects with total capacity of 7,000 megawatt, 1 fixed project and 2 large-scale floating projects in North Sea with Shell. The rest of our pipeline is spread over the geographies, mainly in the rest of the world, where 2/3 of 24,000 megawatts correspond to offshore wind.

In the last year, we have reinforced our leadership in this technology, expanding our portfolio and covering a new market, all of them with high growth potential and a stable framework, and taking significant steps in all the projects that will be operational before 2027, where we have a combined capacity of 7,000 megawatts.

In United States, AVANGRID signed the PPA for 1,200 megawatt Commonwealth wind project with Massachusetts Distribution Companies. In the U.K., we have already obtained the consent for the 2,900 megawatts of our East Anglia Hub project, which we will mobilize GBP 6 billion to become one of the largest renewable provider in the world, contributing to the success of the ambition of clean energy plan of U.K. government.

The construction of all our projects is also progressing well. In St. Brieuc, the installation of foundation continues and the project will be operational 2023, adding 500 megawatts in France. In Germany, works at Baltic Eagle focus on foundation as well and the project will be installed production in 2024, followed by Windanker in 2020 for a combined capacity of 300 megawatts. Lastly, the first largest scale offshore wind farm in the United States, Vineyard Wind 1, is progressing quite well with all key milestone on track. And the design and procurement of Park City wind networks, we invested EUR 100 million during the first quarter, with Brazil, United States as the main destination.

In Brazil, we keep progressing in our distribution investment plan and our transmission project for a total investment of EUR 250 million. In the United States, we are preparing the new rate cases for the next 3 years in New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Maine, which will be filed in the next months. Also, in Maine, following the improvement in the quality of service listed by CMP, the rate of return increased to 9.25%.

In the U.K., we have received a preliminary approval for the Eastern Link subsea transmission line between Scotland and England. The ScottishPower has 37% stake in one of its 2 projects with a capacity of 2,000 megawatts and a total investment of GBP 1.5 billion, EUR 550 million for us. The line will be regulated asset under RIIO ED2 regime, and it's expected to come into operation in 2027.

We are also analyzing additional opportunities arising from the new energy security strategy of U.K. government, which will, for sure, require massive investment in transmission, as well as in distribution. We continue preparing the RIIO ED2 framework.

In January, the Customer Engagement Group published its report, who was supportive of the ScottishPower plant, saying that it meets and in many areas exceeds Ofgem's expectation. We expect Ofgem to [indiscernible] by the end of June.

Finally, in Spain, our distribution subsidiary, ILD, obtained from the European Recovery Fund EUR 180 million to promote the innovative digitalization project as well as deployment of public charging infrastructure for electric vehicles as part of the company plans to invest EUR 500 million up to 2024 digitalization.

As you have seen, the current context may be more necessary than ever to guarantee energy conversation and decarbonization. This will accelerate electrification all around the world, increasing investment needed in renewable grids and storage. And this will require strong coordination between energy policies and regulation, providing stability to attract massive amounts of capital. Therefore, political ambition must be aligned with legal and regulatory certainty and rule of law as fundamental pillars to obtain investor confidence. This is the case of European Union, which, as I mentioned earlier, is creating a framework for the coordinated response to energy crisis through its Toolbox and Repower EU communication.

Also, Germany announced just a few days ago it's Easter plan with an ambitious target to increase renewable capacity to reach 80% share of renewable generation by 2030 and 100% by 2035. In France, President Macron announced an Ecological Transition Plan with a target of developing 50 new offshore wind farms, doubling onshore wind capacity and multiplying solar PV by 10x.

However, not all European countries are moving in the same direction as we have seen in Spain, where despite some positive moments like reduction on energy taxation or the acceleration of permits, the government has extended so-called gas clawback, and hence, proposed an special regime for Iberia market that we have seen is not justified and goes against the single market, when the situation could improve significantly just by eliminating the link between spot prices and regulated tariffs, which is unique in Europe. The uncertainty created by these measures is reflected, for instance, in the fact that after auctioning almost 16,000 megawatts in 2017, only 6,000 megawatts has been built.

In the U.K., the new energy security strategy includes an ambitious target to promote self-sufficiency through renewables and nuclear generation as well as deployment of green hydrogen. In the United States, both federal and state administrations are developing resiliency plan and the bipartisan infrastructure bill is now starting its implementation. Australia is progressing in its integrated system plan to reach its ambitious emission target, and the offshore electricity infrastructure bill, which will be coming into effect in June, will create the framework for this technology in the country.

Finally, in Latin America, Brazil has just published its new 10-year energy plan with increased target in renewables and transmission as well as new law for support offshore wind growth in the country. In Mexico, as you know, the constitutional reform were rejected by the Congress, and following the review of the Electricity Industry Law by the Supreme Court, some aspects of this legislation were declared unconstitutional, with others left to case-by-case decision by judges.

As you know, our listed subsidiaries of AVANGRID and Neoenergia are also presenting first quarter result, showing a strong performance in both cases. AVANGRID adjusted net profit increased by 33% to $445 million, mainly thanks to the strong performance in networks with net profit growing 12% year-on-year. In renewables, AVANGRID continues to accelerate growth in onshore wind and solar as well in offshore wind, where the company completed the restructuring agreement that gave AVANGRID full ownership of Park City Wind and Commonwealth Wind. It has already 2,800-megawatt contracted after the PPA signed recently for this last project. The company performance in the quarter allowed AVANGRID to maintain the company guidance with full year adjusted net profit expected to read between $150 million and $120 million.

Neoenergia registered 20% increase in net profit to reach BRL 1,212 million, driven by the integration of the Neoenergia Brasilia, the ongoing investment in the network business and a strong growth in renewables. EBITDA reached BRL 3,169 million, up 39%, thanks to a 34% increase in investment, which amounted to BRL 2,500 million. Of this total, BRL 1,250 million were allocated to distribution, driving forward an improvement in quality of service, especially in Cosern, which has nominated by ANEEL the best distribution company in Brazil in this chapter.

In addition, BRL 350 million were allocated to new transmission projects and renewable investment accounted for BRL 811 million, both on onshore wind and solar. This investment growth is sustained by ongoing regulatory stability with tariff reviews and adjustments reflecting actual costs and the first funds from the hydro shortage about to be received.

The group strong operational performance is fully reflected in our cash flow generation. We reached EUR 305 million in the first quarter, up 32%. As a result, our financial ratios improved with FFO to adjusted net debt increasing 70 basis points to 24%. In addition, our liquidity position reached EUR 21 billion, covering 22 months of financial need, improving our full access to financing in very competitive terms.

Over 2022, Iberdrola has already signed EUR 2.2 billion of new green financing for a total of EUR 41 billion and remains as the world leading group in green bonds issued.

All in all, this result shows the resiliency of Iberdrola business model, which is allowing us to navigate the current energy market situation and maintain a strong growth prospect. Our lengthened focus on clean electrification growth through investment in renewables, network and energy storage with 90% of our production in Europe, already emissions-free also place us today in an optimal position to face the short-term instability due to our geographic diversification with EBITDA almost equally split among Europe and Americas. In addition, 50% of our operating margin is protected from inflation, 80% of our debt is contracted at fixed rates and more than 90% of our net profit is already hedged from the effect of foreign exchange. On top of this, our procurement policy allows us to have suppliers already secured for 2022 with price closed or hedged.

I will now hand over the CFO, who will present the group financial standing for the detail. Pepe?

[Jose Armada, executive]

Thank you very much, Chairman. Good morning to everybody. As the Chairman has explained, EBITDA was up 4.9% to EUR 2.95 billion and reported net profit grew 3.2% to EUR 1,058 million. '22 first quarter operating cash flow, as the Chairman has said, is up 32% as it includes funds collected from court decisions in '21 that were not included in our FFO in '21.

FX evolution has had a positive effect on results that will increase through the year as we have already hedged, as the Chairman has said, the appreciation of our reference currencies versus the euro. The dollar has rose against the euro by an average of 7.2%, the pound by 5.2% and the real by 8%.

Revenues increased to 20.4% to EUR 12 billion and procurements grew 36%, reaching EUR 7.5 billion. As a consequence, gross margin rose by 1.8% to EUR 4.7 billion. Net operating expenses increased by EUR 102 million, 9.8%, to EUR 1.1 billion as a consequence of the group's growth, with average workforce increasing 6.7%, including NeoBrasilia and FX appreciation.

There has been a one-off positive impact from a U.S. provisions -- pension provision reversals accounted in personnel expenses, partially compensated by storms and other minor one-offs that are accounted at the external services.

Analyzing the results of the different business and starting by networks, its EBITDA grew 21% to EUR 1.6 billion. EBITDA grew in all geographies except Spain. Our increasing asset base, inflation recognition and operating efficiency explains this good evolution.

As you can see in the slide, the contribution from different geographies is very balanced. In Spain, EBITDA decreased 3.7% to EUR 409 million, mainly due to the impact of a EUR 22 million positive settlements accounted for in '21. In Brazil, EBITDA grew 30% to BRL 2,772 million, driven by our increased asset base with NeoBrasilia already contributing and positive impacts in distribution from tariff adjustments, inflation pass-through and operating efficiency.

In the U.S., IFRS EBITDA was 33% up to USD 477 million due to the rate case increases linked to higher investments and asset base and to the past cost recognition. In addition, there is a 99 million IFRS positive -- dollar IFRS positive impact corresponding to the reversal of pension provisions, as I mentioned. U.S. GAAP EBITDA increased 2.5% to $495 million. Finally, in the U.K., EBITDA increased 6.2% to GBP 250 million, thanks to our higher asset base.

Energy production and customer business EBITDA fell 6.8% to EUR 1.36 billion. Key drivers of the business were the lower output driven by lower renewable production, forcing the group to buy energy in the market at higher prices. This increased energy costs, as the Chairman has said, has not benefited the group as the higher prices have not been passed on to customers.

In Spain, EBITDA was EUR 557 million, 5% down. And basically, the drivers of this evolution was a 19% lower output due to very low hydro, low wind as well as an unplanned reduction in our nuclear production due to an outage of Cofrentes nuclear plant.

All of this had a combined impact of EUR 370 million as we had to buy additional energy in the market at very high prices, not pass to clients. We do not do expect to have such a negative impact on the next quarters. This very negative impact was partially compensated by the temporary suspension of the 7% tax generation, lower hydro canon as production has been lower and court rulings.

In the U.S., EBITDA decreased 43% to $147 million due to the positive contribution of the Texas cold snap accounted in the first quarter of last year, partially compensated by a 6.2% higher output due to new installed capacity and better wind resource versus '21.

In the U.K., the EBITDA fell 25% to GBP 237 million in a context of higher energy procurements at higher prices due to higher sales than expected than SVT tariff, partially compensated by higher wind output. Nevertheless, let me again highlight, as in the case of Spain, that we expect the business to recover along the year as the SVT has been increased in April and will be risen again in October.

In Mexico, EBITDA grew 11% to $215 million. This evolution is explained because opposite to the U.S., it was -- in '21, it was negatively affected by the Texas cold snap. And this has been partially compensated by lower thermal production in '22.

In Brazil, EBITDA grew 33% due to BRL 420 million, driven by the Termopernambuco CCGT. Finally, in the rest of the world, EBITDA grew 42% to EUR 129 million, with higher contribution both from onshore and offshore business across different geographies.

EBITDA was -- EBIT, sorry, was up 2% to EUR 1.7 billion. D&A grew 11% to EUR 1.1 billion, mainly due to the higher network asset base and activity and renewables growth. Also provisions were 6% down to EUR 108 million, mainly driven by lower bad debt provisions after the pandemic.

Net financial expenses grew EUR 134 million to EUR 399 million. Debt-related costs expanded to EUR 107 million, EUR 77 million due to the higher cost of debt in Brazil that nevertheless is more than compensated at the EBITDA level by revenues indexed to inflation. Excluding Brazilian impact, our cost of debt improved 4 basis points to 2.85%. There is also a EUR 30 million increase due to a higher average net debt balance. Non-debt-related costs increased EUR 27 million, mainly linked to FX hedges covering full year results at the beginning of the year.

Our reported credit metrics improved again despite this net debt increase linked to the strong CapEx and the EUR 1.1 billion FX adverse evolution. Our yearly FFO grew by 14.8%, including collection of EUR 100 million from Spanish court ruling.

Nevertheless, as you can see in the slide, thanks to our debt management, 21.7%, and our adjusted leverage ratio strengthened to 40.9%. Net profit grew 3.2% to EUR 1,058 million. Equity method includes EUR 212 million of positive nonrecurring impact as a result of the Vineyard Wind restructuring agreement reached with CIP. As the Chairman will explain later, operating performance will improve along the year as renewable conditions are improving, supply resources will recover in Spain and the U.K. and FX will also help.

In the annex, you will find the scrip dividend calendar.

Now the Chairman will conclude the presentation. Thank you very much.

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

Thank you, Pepe. The first quarter result and the expected performance in the following quarters allow us to reaffirm our 2022 net profit outlook in the range of EUR 4.2 billion. In the coming months, we expect the recovery of the exceptionally low hydro, green and nuclear production in the first 3 months that, as Pepe mentioned, has an impact of EUR 370 million in our accounts and the contribution of 3,100 megawatts of capacity and EUR 4 billion of network investment, which will -- which are driving additional growth, mainly in United States and Brazil, as well as the better performance in the U.K., where we expect normalization of renewable production.

Also, our retail margin will reflect the increase in the price cap since April. Our outlook also includes the impact of regulatory measures and court decisions already mentioned in this presentation as well as the positive FX impact, mainly due to the expected evolution of dollar and real.

Today, we are also reaffirming our outlook on dividend, which will grow in line with the net profit with a floor of EUR 0.44 per share.

To conclude, although we will give you detailed information as soon as the circumstances allow us to celebrate our Capital Market Day, let me share now a very brief summary of our long-term prospects. The acceleration of structural trends like technological progress on clean energies or the need to combine the carbonization and enhance efficiency [ catapults ] the transition to a more electrified and distribution energy system.

We have technologies to mobilize the capital required for this transformation and crystallize its advantage in terms of less external dependence and lower end cost. Great energy security is based on unlimited and local energy sources, and obviously, the acceleration of decarbonization.

These are precisely the foundation of Iberdrola business model, making our company fit for delivering growth in all the scenarios. For this reason, in the coming years, we intend to reaffirm this strategy with more growth in networks. We will represent at least 50% of our investment to 2025 driven by a stable tariff framework, most of them with regulatory return adjusted with inflation.

In the case of United States, we expect new rate cases that will provide additional growth opportunity also reflecting the current macroeconomic outlook. We will accelerate growth in renewables as well as business in which our diversified pipeline in countries with a stable framework and our access to different route to market allow us to remain selective, focusing on the most profitable projects.

By technologies, we'll continue leading the development of offshore wind and growing in onshore wind and solar PV to increase production and optimize the balance between our output and our customer demand in some countries. We will also continue to strengthen our geographical diversification with more than 50% of our results coming from Americas, a growing contribution from Europe and the rest of the countries and Spain contributing less than 1/3.

And we will combine this growth with a solid financial profile, maintaining our strong rating with no need of capital increases and keeping additional optionality from the use of partnership and asset rotation. This model is fully aligned with energy policy target of self-sufficient and decarbonization and will be implemented following the strong focus on ESGs. Given these factors today, we are maintaining our outlook for 2025.

Now we will be more than happy to answer your questions. Thank you.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

Thank you, Chairman. Prior to move to the Q&A session, I would like to point out that for the time being, the following professionals have asked the question that I will be putting to top management in the next few minutes: Javier Garrido from JPMorgan; Alberto Gandolfi, Goldman Sachs; Rob Pulleyn, Morgan Stanley; Harry Wyburd, Bank of America; Fernando Garcia, Royal Bank of Canada; Javier Suarez, Mediobanca; Jorge Guimaraes, JB Capital Markets; Fernando Lafuente, Alantra Equities; Jorge Alonso, Societe Generale; and finally, Ahmed Farman from Jefferies.

The first question is the following. Is the nonrecurring low hydro, nuclear, wind included in the guidance EUR 4 billion to EUR 4.2 billion? Does it include CAP, U.S. pension or social tariffs impact?

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

Well, of course, all those things that has already happened is included. I think I mentioned that we have already had an impact of EUR 370 million, Pepe mentioned, on the first quarter because of all these conditions. And that is included on the projection, of course, yes. And of course, as well is included whatever and other things which has already happened across the year, this point of pension or whatever as well as included. Yes.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

Second question. What is your estimate for EBITDA in 2022? Consensus is at levels of EUR 12.2 billion. Are you comfortable with this year? Given Q1 results and the expected evolution of the business, it seems that the EUR 12.2 billion could be a conservative figure.

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

Well, we are comfortable with these numbers. Probably the numbers we are already expecting is slightly higher than those ones.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

Third question. How should we think about the direct and indirect impact on Iberdrola from any material disruption in Russia gas supplies?

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

So we are not at all exposed to imports of Russian gas. Our production and generation of gas in Europe is minimal. We don't expect a significant impact in costs due to our hedges and our exchange of inter rates as well. Most of our result, as I mentioned, was protected from inflation. So I think -- to give you an example, I think we just received a review of the Brazilian Coelba and [ Thelp ] tariffs, which are already increases of -- in the range of 13%, 14%, which I think is one to reflect in the inflation. So I think that is a good example of how it's already in our business. Same with the production. Almost 100% of our production available for 2022 is all -- and almost 80% of 2023.

So -- and I think -- the point is that nobody knows what is going to happen with inflation in the future. So -- but I think if the inflation persists, I think certain -- in the case of renewables, I think that will be reflected in the future prices of the PPAs we will sign.

Also, our procurement policies, as I mentioned, for 2022 are already fixed -- closed or hedged in advance. So we think we are not expecting that one. I think in the future if that changes as well, as I mentioned, that will be already passed to the -- contract of our customer we will pass.

And also, as Pepe mentioned, 80% of our debt is already at fixed rates. So I think potential increases in interest rates, I think we are not already affected because we are long term and fixed rates.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

Probably, the next 2 questions are the questions of this event, has been asked with several specificities and from a large list of professionals. So I will ask it in a general way. And the remaining details will be answered, please, from the IR department.

First one is, what is the expected impact of Iberdrola -- on Iberdrola of the Spanish gas price cap for power generation? And the second one, number 5, do you expect the introduction of a carbon clawback? Do you expect the extension of gas clawback? And how could this impact in your accounts?

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

Well, I think -- the first thing, I think we are aware that is the problem in Europe of prices. I think that is common in the whole European Union. So I think it exists a problem of prices due to the gas prices, due to the fossil fuels. And Spain is no different. Prices, I have to say, in the liberalized market in Spain are lower than the most of Europe due to a better mix that we have already in the country thanks to the massive renewable here in the country. And that I think -- you can check already those numbers in Eurostat, which I think is already published.

I think the unique characteristic of the Spanish market is a regulated tariff, as I mentioned before, with a wrong design that is affected by the spot price volatility. But I think that is only affecting almost 10% of the energy sold in the country. I think the easy solution in my opinion -- and I think I not already give my opinion as you know I'm very straightforward -- will be to move in the same line with other European Union countries, linking regulated tariff to a basket of forward prices.

I think if we take already an average of the forward prices which is published today of 2022, 2023, 2024 forward prices, the effect will be the same one than this -- already -- been already presented by the government.

So -- I think, of course, we need to already to know the details of this -- the terms of this agreement because still is already -- what I read still is not already completed all the terms. So in the moment that will be completed, we can already make an analysis.

But I think we are not expecting impact in Iberdrola. So I think the situation is today the extraordinary margins, if they are any in this moment, are in gas, not in electricity, as you can see in our result. We just need to see the difference between Spanish gas prices in the border and the TTF market. So I think you can see the result of oil and gas companies are booming, not electricity companies are booming prices.

So that's why we maintain our guidance to EUR 4 billion to EUR 4.2 billion. You have to know as well then Spain, as I mentioned, is less than 1/3 of our result and more than 50% of the results are regulated. So I think the effect on that one in any case are marginal in our total results.

In terms of the clawback, I think -- we have to know all these things because I think it's one or another one. I think it's a package. We don't know exactly what is the terms, final terms of all those things. So the only thing I can know is that this clawback is still remaining in the parliament. But I imagine they're going to make a global package with all these measures, and I don't know what they're going to make with this particular point.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

Question #6 is, what is your view on PPA prices for renewables in the main countries where you operate? Are you seeing a structural increase in prices? If so, can you give an indication of the magnitude?

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

In the last months, we have seen an increase in PPA prices in most markets. I think it's true then as well as we have higher costs, higher CapEx. I think it's -- but I think there are certain interrelation between the increases in CapEx and the increases in the PPA's prices we are signing.

I can't say as well that the customers has more appetite to than fixed prices than they had in the past. So I think today, as I was mentioning before, that these prices, they can obtain these fixed prices. Long-term fixed prices are far below the spot market prices. So I think I can say, for instance, in Spain, the fixed prices we are providing in some cases is 50% or close to 50% lower than those which are in the spot one.

Unfortunately -- and that is our problem -- in some countries we are not more energy available to be sold for 2022. I think I'll be delighted to have more energy available, to sign more long-term contracts with that one. But I think all has been sold. And I think those customers are benefiting already of the lower cost of certain of our technologies. It's true that part of those -- I think we are not 100% of the time generating with renewable. We are ready to produce or to buy electricity generated with gas or buy electricity with gas, as Pepe mentioned. We have already this negative effect.

But I think it's -- we are convinced that it's needed to create incentive for signing more long-term contracts and PPAs instead of extended volatility of the spot market prices in the whole market. I think if -- that will give a great incentive for investing more in renewable without being -- expecting already auctions. As you see, many of those actions has not been built.

So I think -- as I mentioned before, Spain has been already awarded 16,000 megawatts of auctions and only 6,000 has been built at present. And the reason there aren't many, not only a question of permit, as really a question of funding and financing all those projects.

So I think -- that's why I think regulatory stability, which I'm always insisting, that one are crucial. I think we need to invest heavily in this sector if would like to make this energy transition and to become more self-sufficient. Stability, predictability, rule of law are crucial for already make that happen. And that is something which I will insist -- I've been insisting for a long time, and I will continue insisting.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

We have a couple of questions regarding the nuclear business or the nuclear production. The first one is, what is your view on the role of nuclear in Spain and would Iberdrola regard potential extension of nuclear life [ expense ] as an opportunity?

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

So -- I think perhaps the first reflection is not mine. It's from one of the European leaders. So the situation that we are seeing and we are living today has already proven that self-sufficiency in Europe is crucial. America -- United States, 20 or 25 years ago decided to become fully self-sufficient in their energy. And they invest in shale oil, shale gas and renewables. And now they are already exporting, not only -- not importing, but they are exporting part of their production to Europe.

So Europe needs already to make already this plan. And they're already -- that's why I mentioned the Fit for 55 is a good tool for becoming Europe fit for self-sufficiency. So the main resources that we have in Europe are renewables, and nuclear is the only one available. Development of nuclear depends of the energy policy in each country. I think it's a question of energy policies and countries decide to take this route and other countries decide to take another one.

I think in the case of Spain has already decided to bet on renewables with a progressive and orderly closure of nuclear. So I have to say that -- and I think that is what is the policy and I think we have set this policy. Our nuclear power plant, nevertheless, are ready to operate as long as they are needed. But I think that will require extra investment and extra cost that in case the policy change, these extra costs have to be already planned to be recovered as in any and other technologies.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

The second question regarding nuclear is related to Cofrentes and the recent incident and the cost of it.

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

So as Pepe mentioned, it was an unplanned outage. I think I have to say the availability of the Spanish nuclear plant -- our nuclear power plants are extremely good. So I think is -- we have already a level of availability, much higher than average of another power plant -- nuclear power plant in other countries. But I think [indiscernible]. So those won't happen.

I think it's -- we have already solved the incident -- last incident we have already -- in this moment is already just coming back to work the power plant. And I think it's -- this kind of small incidents are already -- in our case, in most cases, are already in our budget because we know there is no 100% availability sometime. It's already happened something -- like those things.

But the point is, in the moment it happened, it already -- has already an impact. And I think that was the case. But I think I have to say that the availability of our nuclear power plant in Spanish nuclear power -- our own and another one as well are already benchmarked in most -- compared with other countries.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

Next question is, what is the estimate impact of the U.S. government [ proof ] on solar panel imports? How many capacity additions could be delayed? How many months of inventories do we have?

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

So far we have a very small impact in the United States because of this regulatory restriction to any component. I think if my memory doesn't fail, I think we have around 300 megawatts with PV, which can be affected. But I think as I heard this, this is moving in the right direction. And most of them are already -- is not in for 2022. I think it's for 2023.

I think, Ignacio, you can already clarify those things in detail. My memory is not already precisely in this one. But I think my message is little impact or no impact in our case, none in 2022 and something in '23 for an amount, which can be 300 megawatts in a total of thousands that we are installing in the country and another technologies in the United States.

I think it's -- I think those are the main trends. So we have not already seen -- it's not something which is affecting to ourselves. But I think, Ignacio, you can provide more detail. But in my mind is none in 2022. And there something will be in a small scale, something 300, 250, 300 megawatt, in 2023 which can be affected. Not in the long term because our solar -- you know our bet in the United States is offshore, offshore, offshore. So we have -- more of our investment addresses it to offshore is where it is, is not already PV our main driver for growth in United States.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

Next question is related to the European Union policy. And can you accelerate renewables development due to the permitting changes of the Repowered EU plan? Would this still be possible despite supply chain constraints?

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

Well, I've been for years already predicating in European Union and different countries the need of modifying the permitting process. I think probably it [ occurred ] to me during those years that -- has no sense that to build a new power plant takes less than a year and to obtain the paperwork for the permits it takes 5, 6 or 7 years. So now either the European Commission and most European countries are already aware of that one, and they are already just trying to look for solution for how to avoid these bottlenecks.

I heard that European Commission is planning to publish in May some guidelines how to make that one. But I think in most countries, as I mentioned already, it's already just becoming more ambitious in terms of the -- especially, Germany and France and Briton as well, in terms of how much of their energy will come from renewables. And all of them, they are already trying to modify the legislation for making already -- to be more agile on that one.

I think in the case of Spain has been enormous as well to modify the rules for a project up to 75 megawatt for wind and 150 megawatts for solar PV as well for making that one for avoiding certain of the processes to make that more rapidly. I think that is positive for Iberdrola globally. In the case of Spain, it's positive for giving us the opportunity of [indiscernible], setting our existing power plant. And that will increase our pipeline with -- because of all those things.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

Next question is the number 11, and it's regarding the inflationary situation. What is your view about the inflationary pressures in turbines and panels? By how much CapEx megawatts could increase for projects in 2024, 2025? And regarding the business -- network business, is Iberdrola feeling inflationary pressures in raw materials or construction costs? How rapidly can those be passed to the RAB?

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

So as I mentioned before, most of our operating result is protected for inflation. So -- I think it's because in some cases revenues increase with inflation in different businesses. That is the case I mentioned before about Brazil, the recent review of tariffs, with increases of 13%, 14% in tariffs. In another case, in renewables, there are PPAs or CFDs which are linked to inflation, with certain reviews of inflation, which I think is already from the very beginning.

As I mentioned as well, if in revenues -- if the inflation persists, I think we will -- that increase our CapEx and that will already -- will pass and transfer to the future prices. And that is what is happening, as I mentioned. The new PPAs are already increasing that one toward what they were before.

So -- but I think -- I have to say that for 2022, our purchase are secured with prices or hedged in advance. So I think that is not already affected. And also, as I mentioned and Pepe mentioned as well, in terms of -- one of the potential effects of inflation is the increase in interest rates. And 80% of our total -- of our debt is already a fixed rate -- long term and fixed rate. So as well -- that is, we are protected in this one.

You know we have already had always -- during -- sometimes predicting one-to-one, and already we do. Then we are too conservative. We are always trying to -- we are not much aggressive in our expectations. We always maintaining a conservative approach. And that is what is already happening. We have fixed rates long term. We are already -- business already hedged for inflation or hedged for FX. I think that's been already our strategy.

So we are investing for long term. Our investments are standing for 30, 40, 50 years. So our -- one of our key material is the cost of capital, and I think we don't like to have already surprise on that one. That's why we are making already this fixed rates -- long-term fix rate.

Same thing with the purchase. I think -- I remind you that in 2020, we make orders for almost 3 years to our customers -- to our suppliers, not only for protecting about what is going to happen because we don't know that is going to happen what is happening. Just to help themselves to keep already the supply chains already in operation when everybody was already closing or they were already in a difficult situation.

And I think we are benefiting as well of that one. Because we pass these orders, they hedge already the raw material. And we are benefiting of this -- of the orders we pass already with 2 years in advance.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

About AVANGRID. There have been a lot of management changes in AVANGRID in the last 12 months, including the CEO. What has driven the changes? Is AVANGRID moving into a different strategy?

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

Well, I think Dennis Arriola took his decision. I think now we are more than glad to have Pedro Azagra on board. He knows the business and is fully aligned with our model. And I think we will continue with our strategy. I think the rotation is not negative. Sometimes it can be very positive, which I think is -- when you are already in a company, which is the result of measures of different companies in a short period of time, it's normal they have a certain number of rotation of people.

But I think I'm very happy with the existing team, and I'm sure that Pedro is going to do a great job because he knows the business very well, has been the father of all those measures. And I think he knows that people, they are better than [ nobody ]. I'm sure that he's going to be a great CEO of AVANGRID.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

About Mexico operations. Can you update us on the impact of the recent regulatory and political development in Mexico? What is the outlook for your Mexican business in the next 3 years?

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

So as I mentioned, constitutional reform was rejected by the Congress. So its electricity law, as I mentioned as well, that some aspects were declared unconstitutional and others left to case-by-case decision by judges. I can say that our operational performance is normal. Our plan is working with -- properly load factor close to over 80%. And nothing [ more ] what I can say. And I think we maintain our investment, what I mentioned, in line with what we mentioned, which is already very little in the next few years.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

Last question after 60 minutes of presentation is, Iberdrola is accelerating renewables in Australia, recent pipeline acquisition of 1 gigawatts. Can you provide some color on that market that makes the company to be so optimistic, PPA prices, tender prices, economy of scale with current assets?

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

So we are fully committed with Australia for the same reason that led us to invest in the country. So our project there is progressing very well. I think, for instance, Port Augusta, which is just almost completed.

So Australia has a very attractive regulation. It's a country, a rating country. We have a great team there, who know very well the country and they know very well what to do. There are a lot of opportunities in another sector, not only renewables, as well in transmission in the next few years. They will -- they are already saying that in United States (sic) [ Australia ] is already a growing demand for the citizen in the different Australian state to the decarbonizes their economy.

And I think all those one is the reason why we would like to be present. It's a serious country. It's a country with a rating. We have a good team. Very great expectation. And the business we are making there is already giving a good return and we are already succeeding in our project in the -- what we are already in this moment in construction. So that's why I think it's the reason why we are there. The same reason why we were already in the United States 20 years ago. So it's a serious country, solid, good -- a stable regulation, growth prospects. And that's why we are there.

[Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri, executive]

Okay. Now -- please let me now give the floor to Mr. Galan to conclude this event.

[Jose Sanchez Galán, executive]

So thank you very much once again for taking part in this conference call. So as I mentioned before, our Investor Relations team leaded by Ignacio will be available for any additional information you may require. If any of the numbers or figures with my memory fail, he will be more than ready to provide you the details with is not in my mind. Thank you very much, and I hope to see you soon. Thank you. Bye.