Ferrovial SA

MAD:FER

Earnings Call Analysis

Strong Q1 Performance with Robust Growth Across Divisions

Ferrovial saw a strong first quarter of 2024 with significant revenue and EBITDA growth driven by U.S. toll roads, up 34% and 38% respectively. The construction segment showed improved profitability, and airports, including Heathrow, experienced higher traffic. The company’s cash position reflected investments in projects and shareholder returns, including EUR 254 million in buybacks. Ferrovial also started trading on NASDAQ and pursued new expansions. The guidance for 2024 includes achieving a 3.5% adjusted EBIT margin. The quarter closed with Ferrovial optimistic about continued robust growth and shareholder returns.

Introduction

In the first quarter of 2024, Ferrovial experienced impressive financial and operational growth. Key highlights include substantial performance in their Toll Roads, Airports, and Construction sectors, underpinned by strategic investments and a solid cash position. The company's recent Nasdaq listing underscores its robust market presence.

Toll Roads Performance

Ferrovial's Toll Roads division recorded a significant surge in revenue, up 30%, with EBITDA growing by 36%. The U.S. toll roads were standout performers, contributing 34% to revenue growth and 38% to EBITDA. The 407ETR highway saw a traffic increase of 7.1%, demonstrating resilience despite seasonal effects like Easter holidays. Notably, the corridor's toll revenues increased due to new tariff implementations from February, showcasing limited elasticity and strong market demand.

Airport Operations

Airports also showed robust growth, with Heathrow experiencing its busiest first quarter ever and revising its traffic projections upwards for the year. The airport expects an extremely busy summer, signaling strong demand recovery post-COVID-19. The AGS Airports (Aberdeen, Glasgow, and Southampton) also demonstrated solid performance, with new refinancing completed this quarter. Heathrow's ongoing regulatory discussions are expected to close by summer, with no immediate divestment plans announced.

Construction Division Insights

Ferrovial's Construction division showed a 3.5% revenue increase and substantial EBITDA and EBIT growth. The division's profitability benefitted from Budimex's performance and a strong order book, especially in heavy civil and infrastructure maintenance projects. Despite early losses in new projects primarily due to seasonality and initial phase costs, the division remains optimistic about achieving a 3.5% adjusted EBIT margin for 2024.

Strategic Developments and Investments

The company made strategic investments, including EUR 254 million in shareholder buybacks and equity investments in new projects like NTO and AGS. Ferrovial's acquisition of a 24% stake in IRB Infrastructure Trust is pending approval. The recent bid submission for the SR-400 project in Atlanta reflects continued expansion in strategic markets.

Cash Flow and Financial Position

Ferrovial's cash flow was positively influenced by dividends from projects and low cash consumption in the construction segment. Key outflows included tax payments in Poland and Canada. The significant EUR 254 million shareholder payout highlights the firm's commitment to shareholder returns. The strong financial position supports future dividend distributions and strategic investments.

Outlook and Guidance

Looking ahead, Ferrovial is confident in its capacity to maintain robust growth across its divisions. Key projects, including the Lima Peripheral Ring Road and the New Terminal One project, are progressing within budget and on schedule. The Construction division remains on track to achieve target margins, supported by seasonal improvements and a high-performing order book. The company remains focused on U.S. market opportunities, particularly in toll roads, and expects to see continued positive impacts from strategic investments and operational efficiencies.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Silvia Ruiz, executive]

Good afternoon, everybody. This Sylvia Ruiz speaking, and I would like to welcome you to Ferrovial's conference call to discuss the financial results for the first quarter of 2024. I am joined here today by your CFO, Ernest Lopez Mozo; and by our Corporate Finance Director; Ignacio Del Pino.Just as a reminder, both the results report and the presentation are available on our website since yesterday evening after the U.S. market closed. In addition to that, we are planning to release an updated investor's presentations containing the fact book mentioned at the Capital Markets Day and the Excel file with historical data on May 16. [Operator Instructions]With all these, I will hand over to Ernesto. Ernesto, the floor is yours.

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Thank you, Sylvia, and hello, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here with you today. I mean, the first quarter was really strong, as you have probably seen with our release, standing in front of this solid operating performance with Toll Roads, in particular in the U.S. the managed lanes keep posting outstanding revenue growth and also traffic growth. The 407ETR as well showed higher traffic and revenue, and also announced a dividend for Q2, an increase vis-a-vis last year.Airports, Heathrow's busiest first quarter ever, and also AGS had a solid quarter and it closed its refinancing. We'll cover all that later. In Construction, profitability improvement across the whole division. Regarding the cash position, we had a consumption in the quarter related to our shareholders' distributions, EUR 254 million in buybacks. And also we invested equity in the projects, NTO EUR 74 million, and EUR 47 million in AGS.In terms of corporate events, on March 18, we announced an agreement to acquire 24% of IRB Infrastructure Trust for the equivalent of EUR 740 million at the then prevailing exchange rate. And this is a pending approval, so it's not yet anything in this account. On the 4th of April, Ferrovial was awarded the Lima's Peripheral Ring Road that will entail between $140 million to $210 million equity from us. On the 3rd of May, Ferrovial now completed regulatory review process and started trading on the 9th of May in NASDAQ. On May 7, Ferrovial submitted the offer for the SR-400 project in Atlanta, Georgia.So let's get on to review the operations. Toll Roads as a whole had a very important growth, 30% in revenue, 36% in EBITDA. But really the lion's share of this comes from the U.S. toll roads that grew 34% in revenues and 38% in EBITDA. It represents in terms of revenues 87% and in terms of EBITDA 98% of the whole division.Let's move on to analyzing in more detail the different assets. Well, starting with the 407ETR, you saw the traffic in terms of kilometers traveled growing at 7.1%. I would like to spend just some time reviewing the traffic performance, taking out the calendar effects, right? Of course, this is a leap year and we have that effect in February in terms of work days. But if we look into March, March really had Easter this year, whereas it was later in 2023. So you see a more homogeneous and growing performance when you take out these calendar effects. Another thing that is quite relevant regarding the 407 is that traffic improved in all time periods. So very homogeneous, I would say, improvement versus 2023.When we look into the revenues, we see that the main driver of the revenue growth is toll revenues. And here, please remember that the new tariffs are in place in the 1st of February, so 1 month doesn't come into this equation. And therefore, it reflects what I say that -- I mean, there was an overall traffic improvement in all time periods. And we've seen very limited elasticity. I mean, probably non-existent at this point in time.Other revenues didn't grow as much. I mean, fee revenues in particular in contract revenues -- well, contract revenues existed last year because there was the tolling of some adjacent roads. And, well, that was gone along the year. It's not present this year. And then fees revenues are lower. Also in part -- part of that could be accrued later in the year due to some delay in notices to our consumers regarding their fee obligations, right? So this could come later on the year when the system is finally implemented.In terms of dividend announcement, as I mentioned before, there was an announcement of CAD 150 million. That's an increase versus last year. But it's not reflected in cash in this first quarter in our numbers. It will be reflected in the second quarter.Okay. So with that, we can move on to the following slide, where we review the managed lanes in Dallas–Fort Worth. And here, we see that all the growth in tariffs -- I mean, the revenue per transaction beats inflation across the board, right, NTE, LBJ and NTE 35West. It's a good reminder that the soft cap was updated by 3.4%, right?Well, okay. So a good increase in this revenue per transaction. Some things are going on here that help. Of course, we've seen mandatory mode events happening in NTE. That helps the increase in revenue per transaction. LBJ in general, the growth is also showing better performance in peak periods, and that drives additional performance in terms of revenue per transaction. And NTE 35West, even if we extract out the effect of Segment 3C, we have also a very solid performance, north of 9% improvement in revenue per transaction.I mean, in all these parameters, remember that there were also some tariff increases along the year that were not present in the first quarter. Another stuff that is helping is the fact that in Segment 3C, we have a higher proportion of heavy traffic. So it's consolidating into a fantastic performance across all assets, also in terms of traffic. NTE, even though the ultimate configuration works have already started, it's performing better than what we expected.It's true that the corridor is already losing traffic. But I mean, NTE is holding well with a higher capture rate. And of course, works will intensify in the coming months and we should expect more of an impact. But I mean, definitely we should be in a better position than what we expected after this first quarter. But please do think that in the coming months there will be more intense construction activity.Okay. So we could move on to the following slides. The remaining managed lanes in the U.S. we have the I-77, also growing very handsomely, 14.8%. The revenue per transaction -- here it's good to remind you that there's no soft cap here. So a very good performance. Also, a successful refinancing. $371 million of senior secured notes were financed and funds will repay the TIFIA loans and will increase the average life of the outstanding debt.In terms of the I-66, clearly strong ramp up. We see a 55% growth in revenue per transaction. And there, the whole corridor and in particular peak times are performing strongly. So we see a very strong ramp up here in this road.If we go on to the following slide, Heathrow. And here, Heathrow already released the results. You saw how strong the performance was and the prospects for the year. In fact, Heathrow has revised upwards the traffic projections. And Heathrow expects an extremely busy summer.Regulation is finalizing the H7. Even when we are getting close into the H8 initial discussions, we have the finalization of H7. After the CMA asked for some changes, the CAA consulted. And this was closed on May 1. There could be reviews. But I mean, this should be done by the summer. This is on the CAA's table to settle this. In terms of divestments, that I'm sure is what you are really concerned about, there's no update at this point in time. We'll update in due course.If we move on to the following one, please. I mean, we have other airports' assets. We see as well growth here in Aberdeen, Glasgow and Southampton, especially in Southampton and Glasgow. Aberdeen is flattish compared to last year. But as I said, this is a very good growth. And of course, this helped to achieve the refinancing in this quarter. There's an equity injection. I mean, the reason for this that after COVID, leverage in airport assets has come down a little bit and it's below 7x net debt to EBITDA. But this an equity injection that is expected to have a very handsome return just looking to the kind of multiples that freehold airport assets are getting. So an injection. That should be a no brainer.In terms of Dalaman, of course, this quarter is uneventful given that there is no tourism this part of the year. But the asset is performing well in terms of traffic and we are looking forward to the summer season. In terms of new Terminal One, I mean, the project currently remains within budget and schedule. And this important. I mean, working towards the finalization in 2026. You have a picture there of how fast the terminal is being deployed. And in terms of progress, always the risks lies more on interaction with other projects in the area. And that, of course, is coordinated by the port authority. And so far we've managed in the different interactions with other projects.In terms of revenues, the discussions and negotiations with airlines keep advancing. Right now, we could be approximately on 30% of the revenues for the 2027 estimated traffic agreed. In terms of equity contribution, up to the end of this quarter, we accumulated EUR 347 million. Still a lot pending, EUR 712 million pending. And this year is probably the year that concentrates most of the investment.If we move on to the following slides, please. In Construction, also we are seeing margin expansion here. It has to do with Budimex really performing with additional profitability. I mean, this is supported by a profitable order book, where we are also advancing with better margins. And here you have improvements both in Heavy Civil and Infra Maintenance.And then we have Ferrovial Construction that improves compared to the previous quarter. Basically here, we don't have the losses in the large projects in the U.S. Still shows a slightly negative margin because of biding costs and new projects in the initial phases not recognizing a margin that could be recognized later on.Okay. So a solid performance with also other book at peak levels. Really the order book it's at peaks levels, but it's a focus on local markets. And there's a lower weight on large design and build projects that were performed under accelerating inflation and through COVID, right? So it's a solid order book. In terms of contracts not included, we have EUR 2.4 billion not included in the order book. And the other book reflects the higher activity in the U.S., as we could expect.In terms of outlook, yes, we are in line or even slightly better regarding our expectations for achieving the 3.5%. So we are in line to achieve the 3.5% adjusted EBIT margin in 2024.Okay. So we move on to the next one. Just a quick summary of this strong quarter, with revenue growing 3.5% and adjusted EBITDA more than 37% and EBIT more than 63%. So as I said, a very strong quarter across the board.If we move to the next slide here, we review the cashflow performance. I mean really dividends from projects that are the main driver of cash flow generation little in the first quarter. That's usual. Construction was really not consuming cash. And then, of course, we have tax payments. The tax payments is related mainly to 2 concerns. One of them is tax payments in Poland, and withholding tax on the cash we bring from out of Canada, right? So that's kind of evenly split, slightly more in Poland in this figure of tax payments.Then in terms of investments, the main drivers are NTO and the investment in AGS that I mentioned. Then you have the interest we receive on cash. If we move to the cash flow from financing activities, the main component is cash outflow to shareholders of EUR 254 million. And then you have other -- interest in the EUR 49 million cash range, that is both interest and leases that are considered in financing.Okay. So net-net a solid quarter, where we have invested and remunerated our shareholders. And in the following quarters, we'll see more the bulk of dividends from infrastructure from the year coming in.Okay. So we move on to the next slide. Just a summary of this strong quarter. The excellent performance in all North American assets, also a strong performance in Airports. NTO keeps progressing within expectations. In Construction, we have higher profitability. And then in terms of cash, we have a solid financial position. We have been catching up with shareholder remuneration. That was short last year. And we have some distributions announced that will happen in the second quarter like the 407 I mentioned. Very important, the pipeline is live, and we already submitted our bid for the SR-400 in Atlanta. And last but not least, we have started trading on NASDAQ.So now let's open the Q&A session.

[Silvia Ruiz, executive]

Thank you, Ernesto. So Q&A session will start shortly. Please stay tuned.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Nicolo Pessina from Mediobanca.

[Nicolò Pessina, analyst]

There has been much talking in the past few weeks about the termination of the contracts of U.S. toll roads. We have seen the Texas authorities triggering this option in the case of the SH 288. So the question is, what kind of risk do you perceive for the assets that you operate and why should Ferrovial's assets be a different story compared to the SH 288?Second question on the NTE. I'd like to know if you can provide any traffic figure for the month of March that was the most impacted by the capacity improvement works. And also a question on the I-66 pricing, in the quarter looked very strong also compared to the last quarter of last year. I understand this asset is still in a ramp up phase, and I'm wondering if there is any specific event that impacted specifically on pricing.

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Nicolo, Ernesto here. So I will take the first 2, and Ignacio will take the third one. Okay. Regarding in Texas, the termination for convenience. I mean, I can mention the following. We have not been contacted or indicated from Texas and we have not been given any indication on this regard, right? So no news whatsoever.I can comment that you see how the termination works in our contracts, either fair market value or at 23% IRR on our equity. And the 35 West is the only one that have some fixed amounts. If you look at all them, do any sort of calculations, these are very big amounts. That's the only thing I can comment. I won't comment on the SH 288. I just comment on the facts that I mentioned. But as I said, there has been no indication, no contact whatsoever.Regarding the NTE ultimate configuration, March, really, you had the Easter effect. I mean, looking at how we are performing, I mean, I wouldn't say that, I mean, there's a particular effect that I can basically give to you. It's an X percentage. Clearly, there's more impact in March, but I cannot give you the exact impact, because, as I said, you had Easter and April shows a different performance, right? So we will have to monitor along the year. As I said, we expect that the summer months could have more of an impact, but I wouldn't extrapolate March into April. I think that Easter played a role.

[Ignacio Gastón, executive]

Nicolo, this Ignacio Del Pino. On your third question on I-66 pricing, there is no one-off event to read into as it relates to the quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue per transaction. This is a reflection of the high willingness to pay in the region as well as the flexible pricing frameworks, including the flexibility to adjust heavy vehicle multipliers of the asset.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Luis Prieto from Kepler.

[Luis Prieto, analyst]

I had 3, if I could. The first one is, at the 407, we continue to see an unexciting traffic winter performance in Q1. Should we expect a meaningful seasonal recovery during spring and summer? In other words, should we still assume it to be much more seasonal than in the past, the asset?The second question would be what we should expect in terms of index inclusion in the U.S. market? Any guidance in terms of timeframe when this could happen? And the third and final question, super quickly. We have seen U.S. GAAP accounting implementation in the case of CRH, which recently listed in the U.S. market. Would it be possible for you to go down this route earlier than we expect?

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Okay. So this is Ernesto. I will take the 407 question and the U.S. GAAP, and Ignacio will take the index. So regarding the 407 seasonality, yes, we expect seasonality. Also because of the fact we are getting in the first quarter. When there's bad weather, work from home is much higher than normally, right? And that is something that happens much less when there's good weather. So yes, we expect more commuting and more trips due to seasonality with good weather.And also you should expect works on the alternative also taking place on the 401 that usually start when the good weather starts, right? So all these components should play a role in 2024.Then the question regarding U.S. GAAP, I mean, well, right now we are a foreign private issuer, and therefore, we are under IFRS. But definitely we are looking at this. If it helps to add liquidity, it shouldn't be that complicated. Just taking into consideration that our assets in the U.S. already do U.S. GAAP reporting, right? So they have both. So yes, we are looking into that. It could be natural. There's no decision yet.

[Ignacio Gastón, executive]

This is Ignacio Del Pino again. On index inclusion, having meaningful trading volumes in the U.S. line is a core element for any of the index providers. So growing liquidity in the U.S. line will be a key focus for us this year.

[Luis Prieto, analyst]

Does that mean that you would expect inclusion this year?

[Ignacio Gastón, executive]

We cannot provide any guidance on that.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Sathish Sivakumar from Citi.

[Sathish Sivakumar, analyst]

I got 3 questions here. First one -- like, yes, you did give an update on SR-400. And any update on Nashville Lane? How things are progressing there would be helpful. And second is around the 407ETR. Obviously, you did had a tariff hike and posted you launched some incentive schemes to stimulate traffic. And what has been the response for those schemes? And would you like intend to continue them as you go into quarter 2 and quarter 3 as you go into the busy period?And then the third one is around the NPE35. And there is a line -- you say that traffic excluding 3C is up 17.6% in Q1. Just again, does it imply that the 3C you have seen small growth there? Or actually just more clarity on then what is actually driving that, excluding 3C, and what has been the -- how should we think about impact of 3C as you go into quarter 2 as well?

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

If I may because -- the line was not that great, and I don't think we got the first question. If you could ask that again, please.

[Sathish Sivakumar, analyst]

Yes, sure. Sorry for that. You've given an update on SR-400 and in terms of the other projects in the pipeline. Can you comment specifically to the Nashville Lane?

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Okay, yes. Sure. So I mean, we'll basically be taking the different questions. The one on the pilot in Nashville and the different dates, Ignacio will take. Regarding the 407ETR, yes, we had some incentive schemes and, yes, we should expect to keep on doing that. In the end, these are ways to see propositions that add value to customers and provide us with a good economic performance. It's like loyalty schemes and so on. So yes, we plan to keep doing that and maybe broaden them along the way. So yes, expect more of that segmentation and going forward.Then regarding the question the NTE 35West, here we are talking about the Segment 3C, yes, adding transactions. So we take these transactions when we calculate the number. It's still ramping up. It's a longer segment and it's still ramping up. But it's going according to our expectations, right? So it's a very solid ramp up.The 35West segments A and B also had the growth. Last year they were impacted by works, right? So people were out of the corridor and now they have come back, right? So that's the reason why you also see like that bigger increase. But I would say that we are really happy with the performance of Segment 3C. There's no reason to believe it's not according to our expectations.

[Ignacio Gastón, executive]

This is Ignacio Del Pino again. On pipeline, just very quickly, we expect RFPs on the 495 project in Virginia and then Tennessee Choice Lanes to be released either late this year or early next year, with a view to submitting RFPs later -- soon after that. In the case of I-77 South, where we submitted an unsolicited bid, we're still expecting NCDOT to submit a response on how to proceed with that project.

[Sathish Sivakumar, analyst]

Okay. Understood. Maybe just one quick follow up on the 407 incentive scheme. So like, what has been the overall response like? Did you see increased customer retention because of those incentive schemes or just brought in more traffic? And that meant that the price -- you have not seeing big impact of price elasticity in the sense that the prices have gone up by 16.7%. And that didn't have an impact on entire traffic?

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Okay. We are not providing details on the different responses. As we said, we have seen very limited elasticity to the tariff hikes so far. We don't really see like an impact worth mentioning. And regarding these initiatives, yes, I mean we've seen some customers that value the possibility. But I mean, we are not providing any numbers. It has been subsets that we've done. I mean, we do broader things we will discuss the impact or not of these minor tests.

[Operator]

Our next question comes on the line of Gregor Kuglitsch from UBS.

[Gregor Kuglitsch, analyst]

A few questions, please. So you announced you're going to release the fact book. Just want to make sure -- or maybe if you can give us a sense what you'll actually put in there. Is it all known information? Or are you going to fully disclose the revenue shares? I think there's a few of the assets missing. That's question one.Question 2 is any further guide that you can give us on the dividends by various assets? I mean, you've obviously had talked about the 407, but perhaps on the U.S. lanes, any steer you can give us. Maybe question 3 would be on the NTE. So you kind of flagged, I think, a few times you expect more of an impact. Can you give us a sense what your expectation actually is once construction is fully ramping up? Are we talking double digit impact? Or maybe you just don't know, I guess. But like, what do you expect internally?And then maybe finally on the SR-400, can you just give us a sense of -- now that the bids are submitted, perhaps it's less confidential of what the actual size of the equity check would be. Sort of a ballpark figure so we get a bit of a sense.

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Okay. That was many questions. So I'll just be taking -- so maybe I have to come back. Regarding the fact book that you were asking for, yes, there's going to be all the information. That is not projections, right? So by revenue shares, yes, there will be revenue share from all the assets. All these sort of details from the contracts will be clearly there.And well, after release, just provide us feedback if you think that anything additional shouldn't be missing. That is actual, not forecast. As I said, that won't be part of the fact book, right?Regarding dividends from assets, we are not providing any guidance. The only thing that we mentioned at the Capital Markets Day is that we expected first dividends from I-66 and I-77 this year. That was the expectation. And the performance backs the expectation.Hold a second. Let we try to regroup the questions. Then another one was regarding traffic of the NTE, a little bit of guidance about the ultimate.

[Gregor Kuglitsch, analyst]

Yes, the impact.

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Well, we had a budget that -- in [ ENMA ] that was looking for more than 10% drop in traffic. Probably that's exaggerated. We're not providing any guidance. But after the first quarter, we shouldn't be that bad. I'm sorry we're not providing any specific guidance. The only thing that we say is that after the first quarter, we should be able to beat that expectation that they had. But not anything specific about the coming months.Other stuff that you asked, regarding the SR-400, yes, we have bid it, but we are not making any specific comment until announcement. Probably this should be announced in the -- the winner should be announced in the summer, in August. But let's see. I mean, the Atlanta will comment -- Georgia DOT will comment on the results later on. And I don't know if I missed any of the questions.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Graham Hunt from Jefferies.

[Graham Hunt, analyst]

Just 2 questions from me, first one on investment allocation priorities. We've seen Ferrovial investing in India and Peru and obviously ongoing investment in New Terminal One in the U.S. But going forward, should we expect more of a focused development pipeline in the U.S.? Or are you still actively pursuing global opportunities, let's say, in your existing markets?And then the second question. You mentioned, of course, trading volumes being a key factor in index inclusion. I'd just like to get your thoughts on how you can stimulate that, if you are thinking about how to stimulate that in the U.S? Is it just about doing more investor education? Could we see another Capital Markets Day perhaps at one of your assets later this year or next year? I know everyone is very excited about the fact book, but just your thoughts on stimulating volumes in the U.S. would be helpful.

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

So I will take the one on NTO and Ignacio will do the one on trading volumes. Well, regarding the -- sorry, NTO. Regarding the capital allocation, definitely the focus is U.S. We are very happy that we got to bid the SR-400. We are looking for the pipeline in the U.S. and the focus is the pipeline in the U.S. If there's an attractive asset in other geography, we'll look at it, yes. But I mean, the bulk of our capital, as we said, has to be U.S., and we are working on that. So all these next year's we see bidding in toll roads. And maybe there could be other assets, but basically toll roads.

[Ignacio Gastón, executive]

And on trading volumes, we will be very much focused on continued investor education in the U.S., proactively engaging with investors throughout the country and attending multiple investor conferences throughout the year.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Jose Manuel Arroyas from Santander.

[José Arroyas, analyst]

I have 3, if I may. Sorry to come back to the impact of the ultimate configuration works on NTE. I think, Ernesto, you just said or dismissed the possibility that the EBITDA might decline by 10%. I think you quoted the budget from [ ENMA ]. But in fact, that budget calls for a 17% reduction. And I wanted to make sure what figure you feel most comfortable with? Is it minus 10% or less than minus 10% or less than minus 17% what the budget calls for? That's question number one.Question number two is on the Lima Ring Road project and potentially SR-400. You just provided the equity ticket Ferrovial might have to bear in relation to Lima. But when would these injections happen? Is it 2026, 2027, 2028? And equally for SR-400, when would any equity injections happen?And my last question is on the new share buyback of EUR 500 million. I must admit I'm having some difficulty reconciling the share buybacks that have been announced. I think in November there was a buyback of EUR 500 million that was suspended in late April. And now we have a new buyback. I wanted to understand as clearly as possible what is really the like-for-like buyback that we have as shareholder remuneration? And what is if anything addition -- I mean, on top of that, what is not a script dividend?

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

So very quickly when I talked about more than 10% drop in traffic, I was mentioning traffic, not the EBITDA, right? So we should be, I mean, comfortably better than that, right? So we don't provide guidance. But I was mentioning traffic. I didn't talk about EBITDA, right? So it was just traffic.Then regarding all the share buybacks -- and Ignacio can take about when we expect to disburse the equity. That is always management -- I will pass that on to Ignacio. I mean, regarding the share buybacks, what we mentioned in the full-year results conference call was that we had been short of remuneration to shareholders in 2023 for external reasons, right? And we ended up like in EUR 250 million compared to what the market could be expecting in terms of remuneration that it's always around EUR 500 million, EUR 500 million something, right? So we then committed to catch up with that in terms of shareholder remuneration, something that we've done at the beginning of this year.And we also got the question of, I mean, what was the idea about cash outflow, that it should be equivalent to the script dividend to neutralize that. I said that we provided no guidance as it was a fair working assumption to have that. But the additional would give us flexibility just in case we felt appropriate, right? So it's a good assumption to look at the dividend, as you mentioned. But we want to retain the flexibility maybe to do more. So I am sorry I repeat the answer. I know it's a little bit confusing because you have one plan -- wrong program expiring and the other is starting. But the bulk of the numbers is worked like that.

[Ignacio Gastón, executive]

And then on equity investments, as stated earlier, we cannot provide any visibility on SR-400 as it relates to the Anillo Vial Periferico in Lima. We expect our equity contribution to be in the range of $140 million to $210 million. The timing of which we cannot provide at this point.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Augustin Cendre from Stifel.

[Augustin Cendre, analyst]

I've got one. The question is about your Construction business. I'd like to understand whether your current backlog implies an improvement in your margin, given the target you have for 2024. You namely mentioned that some new projects have a low profitability in this Q1 results, which led to a loss at Ferrovial Construction. So I'm wondering if this will continue to impact your profitability going forward.

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Well, the exact message I wanted to convey that some projects were at very early stages, and we don't recognize margin at the earlier stages unless we see losses coming up, right? But we expect to have a positive margin. We don't recognize them at beginning while the site is being finalized and other stuff, right?So you have some big projects, for instance, like the Ontario line that we are doing with Vinci as a partner, where we are not recognizing really margin there, right? So that dilutes a little bit the margin. But as the construction progresses, you end up recognizing a margin, right?Regarding the backlog, as I mentioned, well, you have these big projects. They were contracted -- and we have others in the U.S. They were contracted after this inflationary and COVID period. So they are more in line with the current prices. And therefore we should be in a solid position. Budimex is performing really well in other locations as well, right? So yes, when I mentioned the projects, I just wanted to reflect the timing rather than talk about final margin.

[Operator]

The operator have no further questions from the conference call at this time. I will now hand the conference back to you.

[Silvia Ruiz, executive]

Apologies. So we have some questions through the webcast. First question coming from Elodie Rall from JPMorgan. Texas managed lane tariff, first quarter 2024, tariffs were strong up to -- between 6% to 20% year-on-year and above the soft cap set at 3.4%. What were the main drivers here for this increase? We saw particularly strong toll rate growth at the 35West with a 19.6% year-in-year. Can you explain the main reasons for this? And how much of this growth is attributed to the new segment? And how much can we extrapolate the current trend for the full year?

[Ignacio Gastón, executive]

This is Ignacio Del Pino. On NTE 35W, it is important to note that this figure includes the new Segment 3C, which is the longest of the 3 segments, which is positively influencing this revenue per transaction growth, as well as the ramp up in rates post reopening and a higher proportion of heavy vehicles on this segment relative to the others.For the other 2 assets with a growth of 5.9% in the case of NTE and 8.4% in the case of LPJ above inflation, this a combination of inflationary adjustments to the soft cap as well as under the soft cap toll rate optimizations.

[Silvia Ruiz, executive]

Okay. Next set of questions coming from Alvaro Navarro from Bestinver. First question about 407ETR. Do you have any news about the developments of the Highway 413? What is your opinion about this alternative?

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Okay. Regarding the 413, it's back with the regional government, right, after review by the central government. So the news is that they would look to start the project. This project then should be finalized probably in the mid-2030s. And what we've mentioned about this project is we see that's having kind of neutral effects in the end, because, I mean, you have an alternative, but also it brings development of real estate, right? So in the end, it's like an outer road. The 407 would be more a road part of the middle of the city, if I may, right? So you can have some sort of compensation between one effect and the other. So it should be quite neutral.

[Silvia Ruiz, executive]

Next question from Alvaro. Do you expect conditions to worsen in feeder bits for managed lanes as a consequence of higher inflation?

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

No. In managed lanes what we expect is competition. I mean, we've seen it in Atlanta and we could see other competitors joining the bid for attractive assets. So we expect more competition given the quality of the projects.

[Silvia Ruiz, executive]

Okay. And next set of questions from Filipe Leite from CaixaBank. First question, can you disclose what was the working capital consumption on the first quarter of 2024 and how it compares with the first quarter of 2023?

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Yes. Okay. So basically, we had a consumption of 100 million in 2024. I mean, this basically the cash outflows of the U.S. legacy projects that we mentioned last year. What happened in the first quarter of 2023 is that we had some inflows both from advance payments, in particular in Canada, if I recall correctly, and also we had claims collected from finalization of works in Oman and Spain. So we had a positive 17 million in 2023 due to these effects.

[Silvia Ruiz, executive]

And next question from -- also from Filipe. Can you confirm that you're starting the potential sale of AGS U.K. Airports?

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Okay. Regarding AGS, our partner is in a process and, yes, we could join that process. No final decision on this yet. Our partner, it's true, that is in a process for the potential sale of AGS.

[Silvia Ruiz, executive]

Sorry. Another question from Marcin from Bank of America. What gives you the confidence that the Heathrow transaction will be completed by year end? Are there any hard deadlines specified in the shareholder agreement that require completion this year?

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Well, I cannot make any comment different from what I mentioned while I was running through the presentation. I mean no comments now. We'll update in the due time about the transaction.

[Silvia Ruiz, executive]

There are no more questions through the webcast, but I think there's another one pending on the live chat. So please, operator, go ahead.

[Operator]

Yes, there is a new question from the line of Nicolas Mora from Morgan Stanley.

[Nicolas Mora, analyst]

Three very quick ones. So first one on New Terminal One at JFK. You've signed a couple more airlines. Are they all signing up with the same price escalation, so CPI plus 1%, and similar terms than the first 4 ones? The first question.Number two on the Managed Lanes. I mean, historically, types in traffic have been boosted by truck penetration. I mean, what are you seeing at the moment? Any benefits from further expansion in AllianceTexas especially boosting traffic on NTE 35W? Or a bit of a moderation on e-commerce, driving a bit of a flat lining of trucks?And then very last one just on construction. So you're sticking with the guidance, 3.5% margin for the year. That puts quite a lot of pressure for the rest of the year to deliver. You are confidently hitting the milestones on profit recognition, let's say, by Q3, Q4, especially on the Toronto Metro line, the large San Antonio projects, because you do seem to need these to hit the 3.5%.

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Okay. Sorry. I mean, the mic was -- sorry, Nicolas, the mic, I couldn't unmute it right away. Okay. Regarding the -- I mean, I will let Ignacio take the Managed Lanes question on trucks and Alliance. This is in line with a prior question he answered. I will take the margin in Construction.Basically, there's seasonality in many parts of our portfolio, right? I mean, it tends to happen both in the U.S. and Poland. In the U.S. part of the business, whether it is road maintenance, that has better margins along the along the year. And also then, it tends to have better performance and production in the summer months, right? So that will help.And hopefully, other products -- I don't mention specifically Ontario or the 35West that you were mentioning -- that, of course, are part of these projects that could have that impact. But there's others and there's finalization of other projects that would have some provision release, right?So overall, helped by the good performance of Budimex and seasonality, we should be there. I mean, there's no special reliance on any specific big project that you may imply by your question.

[Ignacio Gastón, executive]

Nicolas, Ignacio Del Pino here on the impact of heavy vehicle performance on revenue per transaction growth. So as you rightfully pointed out, the very positive performance of heavy vehicles in the DFW region has supported the revenue per transaction growth -- or partially supported the revenue per transaction growth over the last couple of years. And then on top of that, Texas continues to have very favorable long-term growth prospects, and that includes AllianceTexas.

[Operator]

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I hand the conference back to you.

[Ernesto Lopez Mozo, executive]

Well, thanks a lot for joining us for this conference call. We are ecstatic about our results and being listed in NASDAQ and looking forward to meeting a lot of you guys in the coming weeks. Thank you. Bye-bye.