Prosegur Cash SA

MAD:CASH

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Prosegur Cash Q3 2024 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Miguel Bandres, Head of IR. Please go ahead.

[Miguel Ángel Bandrés Gutiérrez, executive]

Good morning to everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. I would like to welcome you to our 2024 Q3 results presentation that will be led by our CFO, Javier Hergueta; and myself. The review will last around 30 minutes, each we will share the main events relating to our business that have taken place in the period and how they've driven our performance. We will comment on our key financials, our geographical performance and our transformation effort. After, we will open a Q&A session. And should we not get to respond to everything today, we'll get back on remaining topics on an individual basis. I want to again thank you all for your attendance and remind you that this presentation has been prerecorded and is available via webcast on our corporate web page that you can find at www.prosegurcash.com.



Now before letting the floor to Javier, I'd like to share some news regarding cash that have lately appeared in the media. They range from payment methods used in Latin America to the increasing cash withdrawals in Spain, government's payment behaviors or customer sentiment regarding payment options in the U.S. They are all examples in very different geographies showing the relevance of cash for consumers. We start with the first piece of news, where we can read on a report by the Inter-American Development Bank, IDB, on Latin America's means of payment. And we learned that countries such as Ecuador, Bolivia or Peru rank amongst those where cash has the highest circulation levels. This is a proof of how important cash is in emerging economies and in particular is relevant to our case since this is our biggest region where cash continues to show its strong health. In the second piece of news, we can read from Spanish online newspaper, El-Confidential that cash withdrawals have grown by 4% last year in Spain and that the average withdrawn amount is at EUR 180, hence, consolidating the trust the Spaniards have when conducting their daily economic activities.



Thirdly, the Bundesbank, German Central Bank has published a study on payment behavior where it states that over half of Germans use cash regularly, making it the main mean of payments in Europe's biggest economy. This being a country where we have a very significant presence. Lastly, we can read in the independent on a survey conducted in the U.S. that shows that more than twice as many Americans regard cash to be their primary mean of payment compared to those that think it's obsolete.



In these four articles, we get an overview of how relevant cash is in different geographies in the world, geographies that are in different stages of development and of behavior in terms of the use of different payment means and that in all of them, the relevance and use of cash is shown to be very strong. After this brief news update, I'll share today's agenda. Firstly, Javier will start reviewing the period's highlights, and then we will update us on the key financials for the quarter as well as reviewing the evolution of our transformation initiatives. After, I'll share key developments per region, and then Javier will share key takeaways before opening the Q&A session. This being said, Javier, please share with us these previous highlights.

[Javier Hergueta Vázquez, executive]

Thank you, Miguel, for your introduction, and good morning to everyone attending our call. I would like to start with a brief review of our sales, which continued to grow by 1.7% in euro terms despite still carrying the negative effect of the impact of currency devaluation, which will improve next quarter as we compare versus the FX adjustment made in Q4 last year. If we isolate the impact of inorganic operations, we can see that growth reaches 2.2% since the impact of not consolidating Australia is still larger than that of the inclusion of both India since April this year and WSN in Germany from August of last year. It is as well very relevant to note the continuous positive organic growth in all of our geographies, showing the underlying health of our business.



Going next into profitability, we can observe that the EBITDA margin for the first 9 months of the year totals 11.8%. This reflects an improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis for this Q3 of 70 basis points. Still, the comparison versus last year does not help because of the stronger Argentinian currency prior to the post-elections devaluation in December 2023. Along these lines, EBITDA continues to be affected in relative terms fundamentally because of both the effect of country mix as well as the continued investments in expanding our change business and the Australian restructuring. Despite that, I would like to stress the good performance in the lower part of the P&L that drives our net profit to increase by 4.1% on the basis of lower financial costs driven by reduced currency impact together with a lower tax rate. In terms of transformation, we continue to see the transformation products increased its penetration to 32.1% of total sales, having improved by an additional 30 basis points on an accumulated basis versus the figure reached only 3 months ago.



All our geographies continue to strongly contribute to this growth in a like-for-like basis when excluding the impacts of both Australia and India, giving an overall growth rate of 12.7% in euro terms. Very important always, and particularly in this quarter, has been the performance in our cash flow generation. In this last quarter, we have achieved a free cash flow generation of EUR 63 million, which brings the year-to-date figure to EUR 92 million. This has enabled us despite having paid the second EUR 15 million tranche of our committed dividend to reduce net financial debt by EUR 28 million to a total net debt of EUR 898 million, initiating a very good trend.



In terms of leverage ratio, we continue to see the effect of last year's Q4, which should normalize in the coming quarter when we will see it substantially decrease. Lastly, I'd like to highlight that we have increased our stake in Minos Global, a relevant player in the crypto sphere, showing our commitment to the next wave of transformation. I will now turn to the key financials for the quarter. Now moving on to our financials. I will first review our profit and loss statement. Starting by the evolution of our sales, looking at the chart on the top right-hand part of the page, we can see sales in these first 9 months of the year have increased by 1.7% versus 1 year ago, reaching EUR 1,523 million. 



It is important to note that excluding the inorganic detraction of 0.5%, the net euro impact of organic and currency effect results in a growth of 2.2%. Again, I would like to emphasize that into Q4, a positive effect on both currency impact as well as inorganic changes in perimeter will be clearly reflected. Going down to EBITDA, we can see that it has reached EUR 275 million. That is an 18% over revenue and lower by EUR 13 million than the one we achieved 1 year ago. This, as you all know, is driven fundamentally by the effect of currencies in our country mix as well as the investment in the growth of our Change business, together with some continued restructuring in our Australian venture. Depreciation totals EUR 96 million. That is EUR 15 million more than a year ago, taking our EBITDA level to EUR 179 million, implying 11.8% of sales affected by the above-mentioned items in terms of profitability. 



Amortization of intangibles remains constant at EUR 19 million, resulting in an EBIT of EUR 160 million that is 10.5% of sales and implying a reduction of 14.3% versus the one shown 1 year ago. As we move down in the P&L, we can see a very relevant improvement in the financial result that goes down by EUR 29 million and totals EUR 43 million in the period. This improvement results from a lesser currency impact, which very substantially helps the lower part of our statements. Earnings before taxes reaches EUR 117 million, EUR 2 million more than 1 year ago and places a margin over sales of 7.7%, exactly as in the comparable previous period despite, as said, this one being the prior one to the major Argentinian devaluation that took place in Q4 2023. Tax rate continues to improve to 43.8% of sales, a reduction of 150 basis points versus last year taking our net profit to EUR 66 million, which is a 4.3% of total sales and implies an improvement of 4.1% versus net profit shown a year ago. 



Minorities account for EUR 1 million, which results in a consolidated net profit of EUR 64 million. With all this, earnings per share totaled EUR 4.32, which results in an improvement of 4.5% versus the one achieved 1 year ago. Turning now to review the cash flow and net debt for the period. In Page 5, we can see that we've had a very strong cash flow performance in this last third quarter of the year. Starting from the previously shared EUR 275 million EBITDA, provisions and other items totaled EUR 15 million, very much in line with that reported 1 year ago and income tax shows a EUR 3 million improvement, detracting EUR 47 million in total. Capital expenditure is well under control, representing an outflow of EUR 67 million, 8% down from prior year, taking into account the relevant portion is related to continued expanding growth initiatives such as cash today and the ForEx business with an important IT investment embedded. The investment in working capital totals EUR 55 million, showing a strong discipline on the financing of the growth of the company. 



With that all, free cash flow reaches EUR 92 million in the first 9 months of the year, EUR 63 million of which having been generated in this last third quarter stand-alone. This all results in a very healthy conversion ratio of 76%. Below, we can see that interest payments account for EUR 70 million, which is an increase of EUR 15 million to the one experienced 1 year ago, mainly due to lower financial income from excess cash sitting in subsidiaries. M&A-related payments totaled EUR 32 million. That is an increase of EUR 13 million versus last year, and dividends represent an outflow of EUR 30 million year-to-date once the first 2 payment installments of EUR 5 million each have taken place, the latter of them in this last quarter. In others, we see a significant decrease in the outflow to EUR 29 million for the period with which we reached a total net cash outflow of EUR 16 million. 



Additionally, there is a very relevant reduction in the foreign exchange rate impact versus last year, which totals EUR 14 million versus EUR 45 million a year ago. All these result in a net financial position at the end of the period of EUR 654 million, which, as we can see on the right-hand side chart, when added the EUR 120 million related to IFRS 16 debt and EUR 129 million deferred payments, whilst netting off the EUR 6 million in treasury stock reaches a total debt of EUR 898 million, below the EUR 900 million mark and below the level of the last 2 quarters. 



As said, I think it's very important to underline these 3 elements. First, the Q3 stand-alone free cash flow generation of EUR 63 million, which implies an improvement of EUR 10 million over the one we experienced in the same quarter 1 year ago. Second, the reduced exchange impact by EUR 31 million year-on-year. And lastly, the mentioned decrease in net financial debt by EUR 28 million quarter-on-quarter, which shows the result of our determined strategy towards lowering the debt of the company. Still in relative terms, total net debt to EBITDA last 12 months remains at 2.9x, still affected by last year's fourth quarter as well as by the fact of having consolidated all of Indian's debt at its EBITDA only from April onwards this year. With this all, in the coming quarter, we should see how that leverage ratio improves substantially. Summarizing, I want to stress the delivery on our debt reduction commitment and free cash flow increase despite a lower EBITDA.



The next topic I would like to cover with you is the one related to our transformation efforts. You know how important this is for the future of our company, and we are very proud to share that our strategy continues to pay out in very positive terms. Sales accounted by these products reached EUR 489 million in the first 9 months of the year, which is an increase of almost 10% when compared to that achieved 1 year ago. This is despite currency effect and the changes in perimeter, which once isolated increased the growth to 12.7%. This growth results in an increased penetration by 240 basis points up to 32.1% of total sales. Once again, the 2 main families contributing to this growth are CashToday and our forex business. Regarding the latter, in these first 9 months of the year, we have opened 5 major airports in Denmark, Iceland, Cyprus, New Zealand, and the latest Singapore, one of the most relevant air stations in the world in terms of traffic. Obviously, these openings have taken a toll in our profitability since they require a significant ramp-up time, which we are sure will very positively pay back in the near future. With this, I would like to turn to Miguel so he can share with us the main developments in our key geographies.

[Miguel Ángel Bandrés Gutiérrez, executive]

Thank you, Javier. I'll start by reviewing our performance in Latin America that represents 61% of total sales. In these 9 months, we can see that total sales have decreased by 1%, reaching EUR 932 million, with a significant currency impact in the quarter. Organic growth totals 57.8%, while the currencies had an adverse impact of 58.7%. This has mainly been the case since this third quarter, we are comparing ourselves with the third quarter of 2023 just before the December strong devaluation that took place in Argentina. In terms of transformation, we've grown very soundly by 8.8%, adding EUR 25 million and reaching a total EUR 311 million in the period. This implies that the share of transformation has reached 1/3 of total sales, confirming the acceptance by our customers of these solutions.



Turning to Europe, which accounts for 32% of total group sales, we've seen a total sales growth of 9.1% when compared to 1 year ago and achieving EUR 492 million. This has been on the back of organic growth of 6.8%, fundamentally driven by transformation as well as a good performance of the underlying business. Inorganic still brings in 2% of sales from the acquisition of WSN in Germany and currencies had a mild positive 0.3% effect. Looking at transformation, total sales of transformation products amount to EUR 159 million, having increased the penetration year-on-year by 240 basis points, up to 32.3% of revenues. This is well confirmed that transformation is close to 1/3 of total sales in the region and that it continues to grow at a very steady and solid pace.



Lastly, we are looking at Asia Pacific that now accounts for 7% of total group sales, we can observe that revenues have decreased by 6.1%, reaching EUR 99 million in the period. This is driven by the effect of the deconsolidation of our Australian operations back in September 2023 that more than offsets the positive inorganic contribution of India since April this year. Organic growth shows a healthy 11.7% positive effect, whilst currencies have a negative effect of 1.6%. Regarding transformation in Asia Pacific, sales have reached EUR 19 million, which implies a 20.9% decrease over that shown 1 year ago. But when factoring out the effect of the Australian deconsolidation, transformation shows a very strong growth of 15.7% in the period. Thank you. With this, I would like to hand over to Javier for his concluding remarks.

[Javier Hergueta Vázquez, executive]

Thank you, Miguel. I would like to share with you my conclusions on these quarterly results. I think the most important element has been the very strong cash flow generation in the period, totaling, as I stated before, EUR 92 million in these first 9 months, out of which EUR 63 million have been generated in the last quarter stand-alone. With this, we've been able to start delivering our target to reduce our debt in absolute numbers, which now is at EUR 898 million after having paid EUR 15 million in dividends in the period. Sales show a 1.7% increase in euros that improves to 2.2% when we compare it on a like-for-like basis with a positive organic contribution from all geographies. As well, in terms of EBITDA, we can see a continued improvement in margin quarter-on-quarter of 70 basis points for Q3 with the overall margin reaching 11.8% of sales. Along these lines, I would like to highlight the improvement of our net profit by 4.1% despite the above-mentioned reduction on EBITDA on the back of lower financial expenses as well as an improved tax rate, which we are sure will continue on a positive trend. Transformation products have increased penetration by 30 basis points from June onwards and now reached 32.1% of total sales with double-digit growth of 12.7% on a like-for-like basis, showing, once again, the trust our customers have on these solutions. These are all very positive steps towards the continuous improvement of our company that make us be confident in the coming times. Now I would like to open the floor to any questions you might have. Thank you.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We'll now take our first question. This is from the line of Francisco Ruiz from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

[Francisco Ruiz, analyst]

I have 3 questions. The first one is on Q4 because it looks like it's going to be a very, let's say, bumpy quarter. We got the comparison with the depreciation of Argentina plus the hyperinflation and also you have the end of the negative effect on the perimeter. So if you could give us with the current situation of Argentinian peso, what we should expect on FX and perimeter for Q4 and for the year-end, it would be good. The second question is on what you announced yesterday between Prosegur and Prosegur Cash on this cooperation agreement. I would like to know if there is any serious consequences for you on this agreement. And last but not least, I think these were your words, substantial improvement on the net debt ratio. Could you give us an idea of if you have any internal targets or any guidance on this?

[Javier Hergueta Vázquez, executive]

I'll go taking the questions one by one. In terms of the Q4, as you correctly pointed out, I mean, the comparable base should be helping. So of course, we will be expecting a very significant improvement versus last year in order to put some more color into that, I will refer to the full year consensus estimates and therefore, implicitly, Q4 is embedded into that. So now consensus is around or a bit lower than EUR 2 billion in terms of sales and a bit lower than EUR 250 million in terms of EBITDA. We think that it's more or less realistic. We think we can be a bit higher than that on a normalized FX scenario. So that will implicitly give you a view on how we could be performing in Q4. Also in terms of cash flow generation, we would expect to end the year higher than we did in last year, so closer to our historical average and also at the bottom line, we will be expecting very strong EPS growth all in all. So that more or less gives you a flavor on where we implicitly think might be in Q4. 



In relation to your second question, I think there are no relevant implications from what was published yesterday. It's just a formality on things that are being carried in the same way for long now. So we are just putting a formality into all that, but it's nothing really changing on an underlying basis. And in relation to your third question in terms of where we see our leverage ratio, I would say that once we replace Q4 '23 by Q4 '24 and with the current situation and the strong cash flow generation we foresee in Q4, we think we will be within the 2.5x internal threshold that we've always mentioned. So that's where we would be expecting to end up the year, and we would expect that deleverage trend to accelerate in full year '25.

[Francisco Ruiz, analyst]

But on the guidance you gave to us on the '24 numbers, this includes even an appreciation of the peso as it's currently the case in Q4?

[Javier Hergueta Vázquez, executive]

I mean, we don't have the crystal ball, but I think that when you look at the market consensus for the ForEx, what is implicitly discounting more or less is that the peso should be keeping this roughly 2% monthly devaluation in line with the cl impact that the government was announcing. So that's more or less the reference that we are taking.

[Operator]

We now take our next question. This is from the line of Alvaro Lenze from Alantra Equities.

[Alvaro Lenze Julia, analyst]

Just on cash flow generation, this is the first Q3 that you generate cash in quite some time. I just wanted to know whether this is just due to improving or returning to normalcy in terms of seasonality because normally H2 is stronger in terms of cash flow generation than H1 or whether we should start to see positive cash flow generation also in Q1, Q2 next year, thanks to things normalizing in Latin America?

[Miguel Ángel Bandrés Gutiérrez, executive]

I think that the cash flow generation in Q3 has a lot to do with what we mentioned during the presentation, a strong discipline in terms of both collections and payments and also in terms of CapEx, prioritizing client CapEx at all times. So that has led us to this EUR 63 million figure now, which we think is a very positive outcome, and we expect Q4 also to be maintaining that good trend. For Q1, Q2, I mean, of course, if there's more stabilization in Latin America, that should also be helping in the sense that there should be less working capital consumption going forward. But our business is somehow seasonal in nature, and that will still remain in place. But it's a combination of all those factors that will lead us to whatever we can generate in Q1, Q2.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our next question. This is from the line of Manuel Lorente Ortega from Santander.

[Manuel Lorente Ortega, analyst]

My first question is on organic revenue growth trends. We have seen a minimum deterioration on the third quarter. I was wondering whether this is just a combination of a base effect or you are, let's say, seeing something different in terms of underlying volume trends from your business?

[Javier Hergueta Vázquez, executive]

Manuel, in relation to the organic trend, yes, it has to do pretty much with the comparable base that you were mentioning. But when we look at it overall, even if we exclude Argentina, which might be distorting a bit the figures, what we get to see at an overall level is an organic growth on a mid- to high single digit, which is also the case in euro terms, excluding Argentina. So we deem that to be a very positive outcome. And that growth -- that organic growth is well balanced between price and volume. So overall, we feel that aside from the tougher comparable base and some point distort in Argentina impact, the organic trend is in very good shape. And it's also the case when you look at it on a region by region because when we see LatAm, also excluding Argentina, it also remains at those mid-high single digits. So it's pretty strong. Europe, we are seeing volumes stabilizing into what we deem a sustainable growth path. And in AOA, we're seeing double-digit organic growth. So it's not only the total, but when you look at it on a regional basis, we reached the same conclusion.

[Manuel Lorente Ortega, analyst]

I see. And just a follow-up on this volume dynamics. This mid- to high single-digit organic growth that you were mentioning, is including or excluding the transformational sales?

[Javier Hergueta Vázquez, executive]

This is including everything. So it's total figures, just trying to match with the figures in the presentation.

[Manuel Lorente Ortega, analyst]

Okay. Excellent. And just final question probably on profitability. Obviously, there is a clear mix effect in terms of profitability from the lower weight from Argentina. But excluding that impact, can you give us an indication of what is the actual trend in terms of profitability ex Argentina? Still, we have seen some margin erosion because the contribution of the, let's say, ramp-up from India and other initiatives or it's more a stable margin?

[Miguel Ángel Bandrés Gutiérrez, executive]

To try to put some more light into that. I would say it's not only Argentina. So we have the impact from the ForEx openings and from the Australian restructuring. So if you take those 2 aside and you exclude Argentina, the rest of the business is improving profitability in good shape all across the board. So that's the trend.

[Manuel Lorente Ortega, analyst]

Okay. So on that sense, we will see some Australian restructuring should improve going forward and also margins will gradually improve. And I don't know about the ForEx openings. It will remain on the speed of those openings. But probably my question is whether we are on the trough in terms of margins because of the combination of all these, let's say, very negative trends or some of them will continue to dam profitability as we move to next year?

[Javier Hergueta Vázquez, executive]

In the case of Australia, the restructuring impacts will already be over. So that should dilute for the rest of the year and will no longer be there in 2025 or I'm very minor impact. In the case of ForEx, also the impact from the openings will be diluting towards the end of the year, and we don't expect any major openings or not at the levels that we had this year into full year '25. And the rest of the business is in that improvement trend that we mentioned. So all in all, when you turn that into the aggregated basis in the future, we would expect the gradual improvement in terms of EBITDA margin quarter-on-quarter to remain in place, and we will expect in full year '25 to keep bridging the gap towards where we were a couple of years back on a gradual basis.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] And there are no further questions coming through. So I will now hand back to the speakers for closing comments.

[Miguel Ángel Bandrés Gutiérrez, executive]

Right. So thank you all for taking the time to participate in our Q3 results presentation. Should you have any further queries, as usual, our Investor Relations team is available. And in any case, hoping to speak again in our full year results in some months. So thank you all, and have a nice day.

[Operator]

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.