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Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q2

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

Good morning, and welcome to THG's interim results. We are delighted you could join us today as we reflect on performance in the first half. I'm Matthew Moulding, Group CEO. And with me today is John Gallemore, Group CFO. We will be presenting a selection of key business highlights and a summary of financial performance for the first half with other members of the executive team joining us for Q&A later on. But first, here is a short video highlighting the continued expansion of our business model and capabilities.

[Presentation]

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

Half 1 2022 has seen record sales for THG GBP 1.1 billion worth of sales, 12.3% growth and that's against a backdrop of previous year, we were in lockdown in many territories. And as everyone's seen in the media or in the press, it's quite a difficult macroeconomic place to be as well. I also believe that the -- one of the key factors for us in delivering those results has been a focus on delivering consumer price protection.

And what I mean by that is we try to limit price increases being pass through to our end consumers. And so we work quite hard leveraging our model to ensure we do our best to minimize that. And one of the best examples I could probably give you there is THG Nutrition. If you compare what our nutrition business, Myprotein looks like to many other businesses, Myprotein is pretty much vertically integrated from end to end. What that allows us to do is to be incredibly efficient throughout our supply chain. And so when input prices do increase, as we've seen, we've been able to absorb quite a number of those challenges on behalf of the consumer.

And by taking that kind of strategy of protecting the consumer throughout half 1, it has impacted our gross profit margins in the short term, I think 410 basis points down versus the prior year, and that comes to about GBP 45 million worth of investment that we've made in raising our prices much slower than input costs have been rising and delaying that impact for consumers.

I think maybe some of the highlights from the half 1. If you looked at our cost of distribution, a 110 basis point reduction despite the inflationary environment is to me, personally, anyway, I think it's incredible. That reduction in the cost of serving our customers with logistics has really paid dividends for us. And that has actually offset inflation elsewhere that we would have seen in our OpEx and I'm particularly pleased with that.

Yes. So the strategy very much has been that we wanted to improve service to consumers all over the world and, at the same time, reduce the movement of goods, by put them on planes from the U.K. or Europe to go and service customers elsewhere in the world. And so we announced in 2020 the rollout of a number of million square feet of logistics space. The vast majority of which has now been completed. As I touched on earlier, we've opened significant facilities in Australia, I think it's about 350,000 square foot there and then places like Dubai and the U.S. and so forth.

And so our strategy has been very much to put our stock and our operations into local areas to serve continents much more efficiently. In terms of then how we're doing against that, I'm super pleased with the progress. If you were to look at some of the initiatives and how they've delivered in the U.K., we've introduced automation into a very large facility in Manchester. And that's quite a hope now for Beauty. And that gives us a great deal of excitement around the return on investment there is just purely incredible.

The key reason and rationale behind that is the strategic optionality that it gives. And so the ability for THG to enter into partnerships in any given vertical, is definitely strengthened as a result of that. Our ability to maybe go and partner and do tech deals. We talked about the SoftBank optionality in prior years. There are many potential opportunities across each of our verticals. We've talked in the past around optionality with Beauty and then similar with Nutrition. And so by having ourselves in this divisional reorganization, we're now fit for purpose in terms of being able to do those partnerships.

At the same time, it's allowed an incredible level of efficiency improvements to feed through the removal of duplicated costs throughout the organization has been quite material. Clearly, the world has been up and down a little bit over the last couple of years, but very little has changed in terms of our outlook on the world. We've grown this business in excess of 20% to 25% for many, many years. Our medium-term outlook of 20% to 25% is maintained.

We expect the markets that we operate in, our market share gains, especially the investments we've been making through this year and last year to really pay dividends. EBITDA margins in terms of our guidance, we'd expect to be around 9% to 10%. I think we were talking about at the IPO as well. We've got a track record of 9% to 10%. That's where we've been for many, many years. Obviously, as you go through phases of high inflation and supporting consumers and doing things like that, you'll get very small periods that might detract from that. But the ongoing growth of areas like Ingenuity should contribute quite meaningfully as well towards that sort of 9% to 10% EBITDA margins. And given the Nutrition margin improvements that come with way pricing normalizing feels very sensible for us.

So we've reduced our CapEx guidance for 2023 to around GBP 130 million, which is around GBP 70 million below what we were previously guiding to. And that new normal rate of maybe GBP 130 million, GBP 140 million of CapEx is probably very adequate for us in terms of the tech investments principally that we're making. Whilst we then grow into those facilities, what that then means for cash flow is we'd expect to be broadly neutral next year. So when you look at the CapEx of GBP 130 million, I think that probably gets us somewhere near being neutral. And then I expect us to be significantly free cash flow positive in 2024.

It's been a journey for sure. What I am pleased with is we've delivered incredible revenue growth. Beauty and Nutrition now have got 60% 3-year organic growth which is quite incredible. Beauty itself has doubled in size just since the IPO. And Myprotein, when you consider that was such a tiny brand 10, 11 years ago and where that brand is today. But especially over the last couple of years, I think some of the initiatives we've delivered there in vertical integration with flavoring and bars manufacturing and drinks, I think I'm super proud of that.

And when you consider now THG Beauty, we are a very major player on the global stage in premium Beauty, #1 in many markets. So incredibly proud of that progress that we've made over the past 2 years. In terms of then Ingenuity Commerce as well, I think it's only 3 years ago that we started to commercialize the proposition. So almost a standing start really when you think about it. And where that is today. I'm super proud. We've overhold the Board since the IPO, I think the IPO promised to bring 1 independent nonexec on board.

We've probably, with today's announcement, 3 independent nonexecs now on board, really high caliber, real strengthening of the Board. And we've got Charles with us as well, Lord Charles as our Chairman. And so I think in terms of the progression we've made there, that's been a real highlight as well. I'll hand you over to John Gallemore now, the group CFO; and actually the #1 first employee of THG and he's going to take you through the financial highlights.

[John Gallemore, executive]

To echo Matt's sentiments, we are building a business of scale in resilient categories supported by our proprietary technology platform and global operations. Our greatest asset is our active Beauty and Nutrition customer base, which has effectively doubled in less than 3 years, driven by a data-led approach, we have created superior customer experiences within Nutrition and Beauty.

We have a highly engaged customer base with a repeat rate of over 80% of direct-to-consumer group revenues in the first half. Our disciplined approach to marketing investment and new customer acquisition has driven a focus on optimizing efficient channels such as our mobile apps and influencer channels. Since mobile apps were launched in early 2020, over 10 million have been downloaded worldwide in multiple languages across our many brands, that's now contributing over 11% of group revenue.

We create highly engaging digital content on a daily basis to serve our many markets and channels. Through this best-in-class content, customers enjoy an immersive brand experience engaging with influencers and discover new products on a frequent basis which ultimately drive high repeat purchase rates, lifetime values and brand loyalty.

As we turn to financial performance, the first half has seen many well-documented macroeconomic factors impacting the markets in which we operate. We are, therefore, really pleased with the broad-based growth we have delivered across our core consumer and technology divisions, particularly when reflected on the challenging comparative trading period, where online sales were positively influenced by COVID lockdowns.

We have also been encouraged by demand in a higher pricing environment with strong repeat purchase rates from our loyal customer base of around 80%. Our Beauty division delivered sales growth of 20%, including the benefit of the Cult Beauty acquisition, with around [indiscernible] growth on a 2-year basis. Our Nutrition division delivered sales growth of 3% year-on-year on a constant currency basis and a 3-year reported sales compound annual growth rate of 19% in line with our medium-term guidance.

Our international mix demonstrates our strong position globally with all major territories in growth, and the U.S. now contributing 1/5 of total sales. The cost environment in the first half has been unusual with elevated whey prices, high inflation and foreign exchange headwinds are playing pressure to margins. Whey costs have been unusually elevated which has had the impact of compressing gross margins in Nutrition as we have sought to protect customers and invest in retention and growth for the longer term.

Measured price increases have been successfully implemented to mitigate the impact of temporarily elevated input costs, balanced with consumer price protection. And in line with our strategy, we remain focused on maintaining and ultimately growing our share in key markets. We actively review the pricing of our own brand products on a localized basis adapting these to reflect the competitive dynamics and local conditions of each market.

As a direct-to-consumer brand owner, we benefit from this flexibility in a way that brand selling through third-party channels cannot. Whilst FX has had a broadly neutral impacts on revenue, the further weakening of the Japanese yen has impacted margins as we do not currently likely offset costs in Japan. As a reminder, the group is broadly naturally hedged on the dollar and the euro.

We're constantly striving to become more efficient as an organization, whilst optimizing the consumer experience and minimizing delivery times. Distribution costs continue to be well controlled despite inflationary pressure as the global infrastructure and automation we have built helps us deliver more efficiently for our customers and clients. We have seen elevated admin costs in the period, which has contributed to the year-on-year reduction in EBITDA margin.

Key areas include inflation and digital marketing costs, which has been well documented across the industry. While we have effectively managed marketing costs through optimizing our channel mix and growing our share of revenues through app and influencer channels, our strategy has been to absorb some marketing cost inflation to drive growth.

We have confidence on profitability improving into the second half for several reasons. Whey commodity prices have now reduced from their peaks. And we have line of sight to lower cost, particularly as we move into peak trading in quarter 4. Wage inflation has been particularly strong in the first 6 months of this year, which contributed to the elevated admin costs as headcount was temporarily elevated to support acquisitions and have subsequently reduced from year-end.

We're now seeing operating leverage from the existing employee base which we have scaled in prior periods to be able to deliver the current and medium-term growth. Investment in automation has led to reduce distribution costs, with benefits more than offsetting inflation and we expect distribution costs to remain stable. In the first half, the group also completed the divisional reorganization providing strategic optionality for the future. The program has also yielded improved visibility of costs, enabling savings to be made from reducing duplication and from greater focus.

Cash adjusted items amounted to GBP 23 million, a reduction of 20% in the prior year and expect to be in line with guidance for the full year. Also of note, are the one-off restructuring costs recognized connected to the organizational redesign of our key trading divisions. Final Malaysia delivery costs have remained elevated as lockdowns experienced in Asia continue to affect our traffic in key shipping lanes.

The capacity is coming back to the market slowly and the temporarily increased cost of GBP 11 million arising from these additional air freight costs of shipping orders to our customers in Asia are expected to meaningfully reduce over the next 12 months. Our strategy of low-class fulfillment centers will remove this dependency in the medium term.

New warehouse commissioning costs have reduced and our strategy to invest in our global infrastructure is primarily to serve our growing ingenuity client base and own brand growth, which clearly continues at pace. The deployment of our proprietary warehouse management software, Voyager, supports efficient commissioning of new sites. Where the group completes acquisitions, it drives value by achieving synergies in the post-acquisition period by restructuring the acquired businesses and integrating them into the group.

During this restructuring and integration phase, there are a number of one-off costs incurred by the group, whilst the integration plan is executed. For example, closure of our facilities or offices, system integration work and validation in addition to personnel changes. These costs also reduced period-on-period. Also of note, are the one-off restructuring costs connected to the organizational redesign of our key trading divisions.

Our medium-term guidance and operating cash conversion of the consumer divisions continues to be around 100%. With the working capital outflow in the first half of the year, a very typical profile that reverses with peak trading in the second half of the year. This profile was elevated with a cash investment in half 1 2022, principally from new warehouse launches, which require a one-off investment in inventory.

CapEx is as anticipated with the group well advanced in its target of annual expenditure with guidance for the year unchanged. Adjusting items and financing costs were also in line with expectations. We closed the half year with cash on hand of over GBP 265 million with the addition of the RCF of GBP 170 million remaining undrawn. We have a strong balance sheet. And as Matt outlined earlier, we have a robust path to being cash flow positive in the medium term.

As we turn to the outlook, earlier this year, the [indiscernible] growth plans for the group to deliver full year revenue growth of 19% to 24% with adjusted EBITDA broadly in line with last year. While half 1 sales growth and stable consumer metrics gives us confidence, the cost of rising interest rates and energy are expected to place pressure on households. Despite this outlook, the group anticipates a strong second half with another period of double-digit growth.

This performance is likely to be supported by increasing growth rates in both Nutrition and Ingenuity, comparative easing and the strong insights gathered across our consumer divisions. Whilst inflation is easing in core areas such as commodities, the majority of margin benefits will be realized in the fourth quarter due to forward buying plans. Therefore, the group now expects full year adjusted EBITDA in the range of GBP 100 million to GBP 130 million, reflecting revenue growth of between 10% and 15%. Our stated strategy of raising prices at a lower rate to underlying input costs, incremental energy cost inflation weighted to the second half and before GBP 8 million of SaaS cost reclassification.

Capital expenditure guidance for the full year remains unchanged as we near the conclusion of an accelerated period of investment. Beyond this year, we expect long-term channel shift across our consumer markets to continue, supported by a strong Ingenuity pipeline and further endorsement of the proposition. As we reiterate our 20% to 25% medium-term revenue targets, we remain confident of returning to an excess of 9% adjusted EBITDA margins in the medium term and strong progression into 2023 through increased operating leverage, gross margin recovery as consumer price protection strategy normalizes over the next 24 months, increased Ingenuity Commerce revenue participation together with an annualized GBP 30 million impact of cost efficiencies, largely identified and delivered to the group's divisional reorganization.

Confidence in achieving near and medium-term revenue targets is underpinned by entrenched digital channel shift, a track record of consistently taking market share and a global expanding high repeat customer base.

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

Our largest division, THG Beauty, is uniquely positioned as the industry's global digital strategic combining brand ownership, third-party retail, product discovery through sampling and subscription boxes, new product development and production. Together, this ecosystem distinguishes us as the online beauty destination of choice for consumers as well as a key partner to Beauty brand owners.

Last year, we enhanced our market share in the U.S. through the acquisition of Dermstore and expanded our proposition in the U.K. through Cult Beauty. We have successfully integrated both businesses and are seeing the benefits of the combination with reported revenue growth of 20% in the first half despite comping lockdowns in the prior year. We remain well on track with our strategy to build the #1 global D2C platform in Beauty, retailing over 1,300 Beauty brands. Our proven ability to attract and retain customers is fundamental to our continued success, demonstrated by the recent launch of lookfantastic premier delivery.

Subscribing customers receive next-day delivery on purchases with premier customers already buying more often and spending more. We operate in one of the fastest-growing segments of the market. Premium beauty, which has grown over 5% annually between 2014 and 2021 with online growth over the wider beauty and personal care market of 23% over the same period.

During historical periods of economic headwinds, the category has proven very resilient driving robust growth. Our offering appeals to a broad customer demographic with around half of all sessions by our consumers over 35 and with household incomes above the U.K. national average, providing resilience in the face of economic pressures.

Consumers beauty and wellness requirements change through their lifetime as their needs and concerns evolve. Our platform supports retention and an increasing share of spend over time through its extensive category and range depth. Our high repeat purchase rates from existing customers validates our customer-first approach, where we are focused on delivering a best-in-class customer service experience and competitive value proposition. We have established a large community of beauty enthusiasts who explore and discover new ingredients, brands and products through our growing social networks and sampling initiatives.

Each of our retail banners have their own distinct proposition, allowing us to partner with independent and established brands and address a diverse customer base. We continue to elevate our brand partnerships, given our customers superior choice, offering both breadth and curation of assortment.

First half highlights across our brand strategy include: expanding our partnerships across our global destination sites to capture a broader international consumer base, enabling partner access to the lucrative U.S. market and introducing emerging U.S. brands to our millions of international customers. As the online beauty market continues to evolve, fragrance in particular, is expected to grow strongly over the medium term, especially as department stores gradually withdraw from the market.

Since 2018, our expansion into the category allows us to fulfill more of our consumers' beauty needs as well as deepen our relationships with brand partners. To support our growth in fragrance, we introduced the Lookfantastic Scent Edit using our subscription boxes to access a highly engaged Beauty consumer. Over 50% of Scent Edit customers then go on to purchase full-sized fragrances.

When we acquired Ameliorate in July 2018 into our 8 strong own brand portfolio, it was a niche brand focused on tackling a common skin condition sold in traditional U.K. retail channels. It has transformed into a digital-first diversified body care brand with a strong international presence. We have invested in the digital proposition of the brand, launching 6 international websites and broadening its reach through our active customer base.

Sales through THG's digital channels, including lookfantastic now make up 60% of the brand's total revenues with nearly 30% international. Leveraging THG Beauty's insight and THG's labs innovations, we have diversified the product portfolio to address a broader range of skin care concerns. The entire Ameliorate range has been designed and manufactured in-house, accelerating speed to market and allowing us to launch 27 new products in recent years.

The resilience of the category and our strong relationships with brands and consumers gives us confidence in our outlook and our ability to deliver 20% to 25% Beauty revenue growth in the medium term. As we have discussed, we are continuously building our network across our retail channels, becoming an increasingly important route to market for our partners. These relationships are multifaceted with THG labs driving innovation and new product development for our partners and our subscription boxes delivering a key element of their marketing strategies, making THG an important strategic partner.

Over the 12 years that we have owned lookfantastic, we have expanded the range substantially across categories. We have the experience, insights, relationships and authority to continue to be the beauty destination of choice for our consumers and brands alike. Selective acquisitions will also allow us to accelerate customer acquisition in new markets and further build our brand portfolio, leveraging the beauty ecosystem to drive profitable growth.

Our Nutrition division comprises a portfolio of global digital-first health and wellness brands, addressing a wide range of performance, lifestyle and nutritional needs. Momentum coming into H2 has been strong for the Nutrition division, while commodity pricing is set to reduce pricing for consumers in the months ahead. Over the last 3 years, Nutrition has grown well ahead of the market, delivering a 19% 3-year sales compound annual growth rate. Our customer base has expanded. Average order values have increased and loyalty has remained high, evidenced by high repeat purchase rates and a growing market share.

Through the first half, our core categories have performed exceptionally well, with mid-teens growth year-on-year, giving us good confidence around near-term demand as consumers continue to prioritize performance and wellness. Through our track record and proven strategy, we are extremely well positioned to capitalize on the significant opportunity within health and wellness.

Structural tailwinds are forecast to continue to drive uptake and consumption across both mature and emerging markets, with consumers globally increasingly prioritizing their mental and physical well-being and healthier diets as well as lifestyles. Online remains the key channel for convenience of purchase and in educating consumers. We are already the leading online sports nutrition brand in the world, and our unique vertically integrated business model has enabled us to rapidly expand our presence internationally in a number of strategically important markets.

With rapid innovation, optimizing speed to market, so we remain at the forefront of emerging trends. This has been demonstrated through successful category expansion, enabling us to target a larger addressable market. We have come a long way since Myprotein was acquired in 2011, a tiny U.K.-focused brand with a niche customer base centered on hardcore male gym enthusiasts below the age of 30.

We've taken the brand from GBP 20 million of revenue primarily from a small number of product lines to become a leading online global nutrition and lifestyle brand with over GBP 600 million of revenue. Our rapid internationalization of the brand and our innovative product development have been key drivers of the growth. Leading to an organic sales compound annual growth rate of over 40% since the brand was acquired.

We now manufacture over 80% of our Nutrition products in-house by revenue through a network of 7 manufacturing sites in the U.K., U.S. and Europe. The breadth of in-house manufacturing has been expanded in recent years as we have in-house healthy snacking vitamins, flavor development and ready-to-drink capabilities. The brand's aesthetics and product offerings have evolved significantly, enabling us to keep up with rapidly evolving trends and consumer expectations as well as actively target additional fast-growing market segments that are adjacent to our core sports nutrition category.

This evolution of the brand family has mirrored a broadening of its appeal with a brand family that now includes Myvitamins, Myvegan and Activewear Brand, MP. All of which have been launched organically in recent years. This brand family now appeals to a wide range of consumers of all ages with an increased female participation and a rapidly growing mix of lifestyle customers.

Our broad customer base is evidenced by our community of over 7.5 million social media followers with our multi-brand approach, enabling us to capture a much greater share of each consumer's health and wellness spend and encouraging cross-category purchases. Performance and Activewear continues to be an especially strong growth category for us as consumers connect with the brand and its position in their daily routines with this being the fastest-growing category in the first half of 2022.

Product innovation continues to be a key driver of our success with this informed by millions of data insights from our digital customer base. We research, develop and manufacture ourselves, and Myprotein is renowned for being first to market with new products and formats. The capabilities we now have in-house continue to support incremental sales growth opportunities across a broad range of categories, enabling more consumption occasions, leading brands and influencers are choosing to collaborate with us, which drives awareness and amplifies our reach.

Through leveraging our brand equity, we can drive new purchases across formats notably in the convenience space, where we have expanded our position through relationships with the leading U.K. grocers. This strategy is set to be rolled out internationally, initially in markets where Myprotein already has significant market share. Retail, social and licensing partnerships also serve as a valuable new customer acquisition channel with impactful collaborations helping to elevate the brand's position and awareness across markets.

Sustainability is at the heart of our brand values and innovation strategy as is illustrated by the launch of Whey Forward in the U.S. market. This animal-free performance protein caters for a broader range of dietary requirements whilst not compromising on taste and performance. With Perfect Day, the creator of the world's first animal-free dairy protein, we have developed a formula which is identical in composition to the whey protein founding cow's milk. Whilst core whey products remain a growth category, sustainable alternatives with lower exposure to commodity prices are a key development area, and we are excited to follow our U.S. launch with a launch into Asia very shortly.

Everything we've just discussed gives us confidence in our ability to deliver double-digit global growth and margin accretion over the medium term. We will continue to evolve the Myprotein brand through expansion into new product categories and deliver innovation in localized products within existing categories. In addition, continued expansion into traditional retail channels through our convenience ranges will enable us to reach new customers and drive incremental consumption while continuing to raise brand awareness.

Licensing partnerships leverage the power of the group's brand portfolio and digital-first business model. It offers our brands opportunities to extend into new categories, increase brand touch points and engage customers in new ways. We are able to leverage our D2C capabilities to elevate partnerships to new levels, further driving visibility and brand equity. This growth is enabled by our vertically integrated model, which allows us to quickly innovate in response to new trends. Finally, optimizing our recent investments in local manufacturing and fulfillment will enable us to offer an enhanced customer experience in key international markets while reducing delivery costs and broadening access to a more expansive product range.

[John Gallemore, executive]

Digital Commerce continues to take on new dimensions with the customer journey at the heart of how we refine and scale our technology and operations. As we reflect on the environment post COVID, it's apparent on multiple levels that businesses of all sizes are still increasingly turning their attention to online channels. With U.K. e-commerce penetration is around 25% ahead of many large overseas markets, there remains huge scope for digital channel shift at levels in line with what we have observed over the longer term. And therefore, our clients choose Ingenuity as their platform for commerce as a supply chain and fulfillment partner and as a trusted adviser to their digital brand building strategy.

We relentlessly focus on building customer LatAm values for our own brands and for those of our clients. And as direct-to-consumer increasingly gets its share of enterprise investment, it's imperative that this is viewed across multiple channels, all of which we have capabilities to support. The mindset to the customer has also evolved with the millions of insights we take from our global base, keeping us relevant and well informed of emerging trends and shopping behaviors.

Consumers are increasingly shopping in macro moments responding to social media and digital advertising, they want their products quickly using the payment method of their choice, to a destination of their choice, and operations enabled experience is therefore critical to success in driving conversion, retention, favorable reviews and ultimately, market share gains.

So how is Ingenuity faced into the new world and evolved to a more efficient engine powering global growth. When we introduced Ingenuity Commerce, we were using our experience to develop quickly in our core FMCG vertical. Subsequently, we have created a more meaningful presence in the food and beverage category. And then now proud to be working with 7 of the top 20 food and beverage companies globally. We have launched new propositions such as THG Delivered, an end-to-end delivery management solution, comprising technology delivery options, carrier management and end-to-end tracking. THG Delivered has enabled around 70% of our global client base to be offered next-day delivery. We also support our clients on our own sustainability journeys by offering an eco delivery solution at checkout, encouraging customers to reduce their carbon footprint, testament to how Ingenuity is aligned with enterprise digital strategies, 44% of clients onboarded in 2020 have subsequently taken additional propositions.

Our client we have talked to previously is U.K. retailer home base, following the migration of their existing sites to Ingenuity, they have observed a sustained uplift in digital participation with Ingenuity a key partner across technology and commerce. In addition, 12 months ago, we announced a partnership with Mondelez International, a leading global confectionary brand owner to deliver personalization for Toblerone. That project was work as part of a multi-agency approach to launch a digital proposition using THG Ingenuity's headless digital commerce solution. Ingenuity runs the back end and controls checkout, basket, fraud, customer experience, hosting trading, marketing and fulfillment. With a personalized Toblerones also powered by Ingenuity's print-on-demand capabilities, the site has been highly successful and we are excited by the breadth of new products in development launching in the fourth quarter.

We are well progressed through our global rollout program to extend GMV capacity, which future-proofs growth of our own brands and Ingenuity clients whilst ensuring the demand of the peak trading periods can be met comfortably. Over the last 2 years, we've extended our warehouse network, doubling the number of global facilities in addition to expanding key hubs with a focus on elevating the customer experience whilst driving continued efficiencies through automation.

12 months ago, we dispatched our first order from our ICON U.K. automated warehouse, which fulfills orders for THG Beauty brands and Ingenuity clients. By the end of 2023, we expect over 30% of orders to be fulfilled by automated sites in the U.K. and the United States. At this point last year, we had recently acquired Cult Beauty with migration to the group's technology platform of priority, followed by improving operational excellence. We successfully relocated [indiscernible] inventory earlier this year from its legacy manual warehouse to ICON. This has enabled customers more flexibility to choose premium delivery services, enabling over 75% of customers to receive their packages within 2 days of order. So overall, Cult Beauty customers benefit from faster more stable [indiscernible] performance, more choice and speed of delivery options and importantly, more channels through which to contact our dedicated customer service teams.

These improvements in customer experience have translated to an improvement in Cult Beauty's Trustpilot scores from an already strong base. An example of what we can deliver for our clients in a commercially beneficial way. So where do we go from here? Last year, Ingenuity delivered nearly GBP 200 million of revenue and we have aspirations to grow at double-digit levels across 5 key pillars. Technological advancements benefit both THG brands and ingenuity clients and our recent capability enhancements are focused on improved platform flexibility, cross-channel selling, site resilience and improving our user experience with additional features to maximize conversion and customer loyalty.

We will continue to develop our suite of propositions and increasingly market stand-alone solutions to maximize the addressable market. meeting individual brand requirements where an end-to-end solution is not immediately acquired and open up our solution to a new customer base of partners, agencies and consultancies. We are constantly striving to become more efficient as an organization, whilst optimizing the customer experience through a frictionless platform and minimizing delivery times.

One such example is scaling fulfilled by THG, where clients can embed us within their supply chains efficiently and as fulfillment costs increase across the market cost effectively. As we continue to scale, partnerships alongside continued in-house development is imperative to cementing Ingenuity's position as a market leader in the e-commerce technology platform market.

Client growth through new wins and expansion across the existing base by Anchor and Ingenuity as a trusted partner for D2C growth ambitions across our clients' own brand side and expanded into social commerce and marketplaces. We are excited to continue with our strategy to drive ingenuity to its full potential in a market which is demanding speed and agility, we build the best and partner with the best for our own brands leveraging this for mutual success with our clients.

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

We maintain our belief that our long-term growth opportunity is driven by growth in digital activity at a global level, together with product innovation and expansion across new products and verticals. As we have demonstrated today, the group continues to deliver significant infrastructure development which in turn has supported market share growth through improved localized service as well as substantial operational savings.

We have outlined our core levers for driving top line double-digit growth and margin accretion over the near and medium term. Whilst record inflation rates, rising interest rates and further external pressures, such as fuel and energy costs, continue to have a meaningful impact on consumer budgets, through our vertically integrated direct-to-consumer model, we have intentionally focused on minimizing the pass-through of rising raw material and production costs in our Cult Beauty and Nutrition divisions. We have a strong track record of thriving in difficult environments and have the data, technology and global infrastructure to identify and capitalize on market opportunities as they arise. With a strong balance sheet and category-leading positions within substantial markets that continue to benefit from long-term structural growth, we have confidence in our ability to deliver long-term value for shareholders and remain on track to be cash flow positive through 2024. Thank you for joining us and for your ongoing support. We look forward to taking your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We will take the first question from Guido Lucarelli from Citi. Please go ahead, Guido Lucarelli from Citi.

We'll now take the next question from Rob Joyce from Goldman Sachs.

[Robert Joyce, analyst]

I'll just go with -- I'll go with 3. Firstly, in terms of -- you mentioned in the release that broadly free cash flow positive in '23. Can you just give us how you're thinking about the revenue and margin assumptions that underpin that guidance are? .

Second one, clearly a huge amount of still innovation and development of the product going on throughout the year. I mean given broader capital constraints across markets, is there any chance that you can pull back on some of that and maybe focus on developing the core product as it is rather than spending more on developing it? I'm wondering if temporary pause is possible there.

And then the final one, just in terms of -- I think in the -- since we last heard from you, there was a bid for the company quite a bit ahead of where we're trading today, which you rejected. Can you just talk us through that decision? And also help us understand how you evaluate whether the public is the best place for THG.

[Steven Whitehead, executive]

Thanks, Rob. Steve here. I'll pick up the first around those cash flow assumptions for '23 and '24. So the key thing to talk about on that table is this is very illustrative of how our business model in those -- in that near term has that route to free cash flow neutrality and then a positive position in '24. Now the assumptions that go into that are well within the historic tramline. So we'll say 9 out of any 10 years, our business will hit the revenue growth assumption required to do that. So if it's double-digit growth for this year, we see progression through next year. If you're hitting mid- to high teens and then you're pulling out continued EBITDA progression from where we are on this year's guidance through to -- whether it's 6.5%, 7%, 7.5%, however that progresses through.

That's well within historic norms. It's absolutely the travel direction we're traveling in. Then when you overlay what we know on adjusting items, which we expect to be 50% lower in H2 '22 and that continued reduction CapEx, we're coming now out of the back of that program that we've talked about extensively for the last couple of years, which means that you've got a much lower percentage of revenue and a lower absolute number on CapEx. And then obviously, financing being flat year-on-year. What we know is that it hits a broadly neutral position.

Now if any one of those elements has a right hand movement of a quarter or 2 quarters because of a macro feature, then we understand that. But the direction of travel is firmly towards that neutrality point over 23 and then moving through into '24 or within a set of assumptions, which are well within historic actuals and where we are now firmly traveling towards given our exit velocity from H1 and what we're guiding to for the year.

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

And Rob, I'll take...

[Robert Joyce, analyst]

Okay, so broadly mid-teens growth 7% margin sounds above the midpoint.

[Steven Whitehead, executive]

Yes, exactly. And as you move the 4 or 5 components around, then you can accommodate a movement in 1 and pick it up elsewhere.

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

Rob, I'll take your other 2 questions then. In terms of those questions, I think one of them was around your capital projects. You're a well-invested business, do you need to keep investing, et cetera? I mean, look, so CapEx even this year will be slightly down on the prior year. And as you've seen from John Gallemore's piece there, we have done some significant investments. We are seeing the benefits of that versus the wider market, that local distribution all over the world, the automation savings that are coming through.

Our cost of service is quite an advantage relative to the wider market. But also, it's worth noting, in terms of the support that we put behind the consumers for this year, we funded that in any of them by scaling back our CapEx for next year. So I think the guidance we've given for next year is around GBP 130 million of CapEx versus a GBP 200 million CapEx number that people would have been expecting. And whether that's GBP 130 million, GBP 140 million given that range, that's the kind of scale back that you have. And that's actually one of the assumptions for you with which Steve was talking about there. It's -- we've got a very well-invested global infrastructure network now, which is operating very well. And then it should have come across in the presentation.

Clearly, we've got an incredibly strong working capital position as well in the sense that the stock position of the group is normally most Internet businesses operate on a negative working capital business. Now because we filled -- had to fill all these global distribution centers over the past 12 months. And obviously, we've paid for that stock and we've put it in there and then the service works and the savings come through and that working capital normalizes. But as that working capital then normalizes, that's a cash back into the business. So we don't need to focus on doing the CapEx reduction plan. We can carry on and go and do that. Naturally, though given the macro position out there, we're going to take the most prudent position, and then we'll continue to sort of monitor that position. But it won't have any near-term impact on us by doing that because we're always investing for growth some years ahead. So that's in respect to that point.

Secondly, in terms of the bid process, very simply, obviously, when you get bids into a group, you then have your defense team, which includes the banks, the lawyers, et cetera. Very first and foremost, obviously, they advise you and advise you as a Board. They know the business very well. They know the peers at valuations very well. To be clear, of the numerous bids that the group has received from numerous parties, many of which -- some of which didn't make it into the media. Then -- and the valuations, all of them didn't make it into the media as well. The defense team advise the Board based on how they see those valuations versus the wider market. And to be clear, they were unanimous in not being able to recommend that to the Board.

Despite that, we obviously then put into one of our RNSs that we confirmed the media speculation that there have been bids and all had been rejected. But what that allowed us to do was to engage with the share register to understand what is their view on this because no matter what, if the vast majority of shareholders wouldn't have accepted a bid, then it couldn't have gone forward anyway. What was clear from that exercise led by Lord Charles was that when he spoke to the various shareholders, it was clear that there was no appetite within that major share registered -- major components of the share register to accept a bit at those kind of levels. And so just wouldn't have been able to progress at that level. And it's worth noting that the bids that were on the table were incredibly credible, well funded and in some instances, very well-known names as well.

And so -- but what it did mean with those bids was that the group would have been saddled with a great deal of leverage. And just to remind everyone, that was at a time shortly after the invasion as well and the cost of debt was exploding at that point in time. And so for the group to take on a huge amount of leverage at a very expensive rate didn't feel in the right interest for THG either. So the shareholders wouldn't have accepted it. The advisers wouldn't recommend it to the Board. And it wasn't the right time for THG to take on a huge amount of debt and do that moving forward. And so that's why that didn't move forward at that point in time.

Now in answering your question in terms of how do we look at that relative to the valuation today? And I think your question said, how do we look at whether the London Stock Exchange is the right place for THG. I mean, I'd say it's a pretty fair point. Naturally, obviously, you wouldn't be asking it. But THG today is valued at something like 0.2x sales. And we've got 3 major divisions is how we look at that. Obviously, we've got a very large Beauty division, very large Nutrition division and we've got the Ingenuity Tech division. Now 0.2x sales obviously applies to all of those revenues. If you were to take the one that's the simplest to understand, let's say, Nutrition, then Myprotein is the biggest brand in the world, direct to consumer.

You've just seen all of those examples, controls the consumer, a very, very exciting brand, multifaceted. Now 0.2x sales for that business. If you were to look at typical brands in the group, and obviously, our advisers come and step forward and give this explanation. The London Stock Exchange has got a number of brands on there. At 1 level, you have Fever-Tree fantastic tonic brand on 4x sales today. And then you maybe have the big end of the scale, Unilever, I don't know, if 3x sales, maybe more of those kind of brand houses. And then you look at overseas in Germany in the private equity market, one of Myprotein's competitors, a much, much smaller competitor, probably about the 1/5 or 1/4 of the size was bought by private equity for 5.5x sales just a few months ago.

Turning to the U.S. And then you've got old-style brands such as BellRing Brands, which most people on this call will know, just selling protein bags into high street retail. They're on about 4x sales, as I understand. And the more exciting Myprotein type brands with high growth and the likes, such as Celsius are on 11x sales in the U.S. and Pepsi have just bought a material stake in that at that kind of valuation. So our advisers and the Board would naturally look at that and say, well, Myprotein is valued at 0.2x sales today, the wider market was valued at between the lowest level, maybe at 3 to 4x sales in the U.K., 5x sales, 3 to 10x sales in other territories, and we've got the best asset. So naturally, people do that kind of exercise and say, "Well, yes, we wouldn't necessarily know what our advisers agree that the current share price is reflective of that."

Whether that then means you could then do the same math across what the tech revenues and Ingenuity peers look like, what do Beauty businesses, so on and so forth. But ultimately, we are on the stock market in London. And as we just get on and run our business and it's not for us to necessarily get into that debate on a day-by-day basis, save for when bids do come forward, that's how they've been evaluated. And that's not to say that if you went and asked those same questions today, would you get any different answers? I don't know, but maybe.

[Robert Joyce, analyst]

Very helpful, Matt. I mean just to wrap that up very quickly. I mean, you obviously highlighted that you've had group bids. I mean have there been bids for Nutrition recently?

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

Look, Rob, I mean -- I get in trouble for saying lots of stuff, lots of times. So I'm saying as little as possible on all things, right? And yes, I'll stop there.

[Operator]

We will take the next question from Charlie Muir-Sands from BNP Paribas.

[Charlie Muir-Sands, analyst]

Two topics, please. One is to the reduction in your CapEx guidance. I wondered if you could just talk to what are the projects that you're either canceling or postponing in making those reductions? And -- is it that those capabilities are no longer needed or just capacity not needed yet?

And then the second question relates to Ingenuity e-Commerce. I wonder if you could show any particular highlights of new websites that have been launched in the last 6 months and whether you still stick to your view that you should get e-commerce revenues of GBP 108 million to GBP 112 million, which I think is what was being talked about previously because clearly, the run rate in H1 is well behind that.

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

Okay. So look, I'll start and then any other guys can jump in there. It's not that we're canceling any CapEx projects at all. The way that we look at it on a CapEx basis is we'd sit there and say, typically, we'd go and invest in these plans. Sure, we could be rolling out more distribution centers if we chose to do with more automation in there. But we've got our current facilities working well, and I think we're doing well against the wider market, and we are taking significant market share.

So it's not that we sit there and strike through a list of projects and say we're not going to do those anymore. We just don't -- we don't feel that we need to go and do them in this current climate. And so -- and also, we did give guidance at IPO that our CapEx would be reducing as we completed the major projects that we've delivered. So it's broadly in line with the guidance. It's just given the market environment, it's a bit sooner and it just feels like the right time as opposed to going through and striking anything else. I think just for me to kick off a bit on the Ingenuity piece, it is worth just reminding people the timing of contract wins, especially what we refer to internally of, say, Wale accounts is a key factor.

So sure, we have a machine that will deliver the sort of like the enterprise client wins, which we onboard at scale. So if you were to break it down, you'd see that there's some really good stats in there around that level. Wales themselves obviously have meaningful impact straightaway, especially on the scale of Ingenuity's revenues from a standing start just a few years ago. So the timing of those getting over the line is one of the key factors that would lead to a variance there. I think the other factor to take into account as well is a lot of people want to get access to Ingenuity as in third parties. And fintech has been a key part of that. People wanting payment gateways, payment providers wanting to get on to the platform. And they would -- once they're on the platform, they then want to invest in marketing funds, et cetera.

Now it's well documented that certainly in the last few months, that market has changed dramatically. And so the fintech players have essentially withdrawn all of their spending, give or take in there. Now the marketing technology players have stepped in, in any event, but that's ramping up. But there's a difference there between the fintech guys who would typically be investing their monies to grow their customer base, using Ingenuity as part of that, that have withdrawn from the market. But John, do you want to add in?

[John Gallemore, executive]

Yes. Look, the way I think about it in terms of the overall health of the division, confidence comes from the breadth of services that we provide and the nature of the fact that it's not just CapEx but it's OpEx, services and provider. And I think about it initially between recurring and nonrecurring revenues. Recurring revenues is the health check of the existing customer base and the services that we're providing to it. Now we don't split that out in terms of the growth rates there. But you can see the shift in mix to recurring at 76%. And in the period, recurring revenues have grown at 60%. Now they're very broad in terms of the nature of services, but I'll just call out some of the components of a revenue share, which is our key revenue driver, and it's effectively our partnership with the clients that we all take a GMV share.

In the half, that's plus 111% on the prior year. I look at all the kind of services we provide like digital services part, which is the studio content services we provide, that's up 70-odd percent year-on-year. Customer service is up 120%. And then fulfillment, which isn't part of the Ingenuity Commerce definition, but that's up 78% year-on-year. So what we've got is a broad range of services that are in very high growth, reflecting the fact that their existing customer base is very happy and taking more of the services that we're providing.

We've called out a couple of stats there, it's 44% of customers acquired in 2020, taken new services. It's 29% of customers acquired last year have taken new services. And then we can look at some of the categories we call out, such as food and beverage and the quality of clients that we're bringing into that category, just undermines -- sorry, completely reflects the quality of what we've got.

Now in terms of nonrecurring, there are some tailwinds there. Matt mentioned the fact that there's less fintech revenues around than there were maybe a year ago, less partnership revenues. And maybe some of the smaller businesses, there's less speculative CapEx. But the real confidence we get for the future numbers are that a lot of the services would provide a GMV-based the recurring services, the very strong. The number of websites we've got is up 59% on last year. Recurring revenue is up 60% and GMV drives an awful lot of that run rate. Now in quarter 4, we have a lot of seasonality. GMV generally will grow across the pace. And as a consequence, the revenue shares, the fulfillment and all of those constituent parts will grow in quarter 4. So we've got a lot of confidence that the actual run rate exiting the year will be substantially above where it is now.

[Charlie Muir-Sands, analyst]

Great. And so just on the broader run rate, you've obviously provided a revised guidance for the full year that implies for quite a significant reacceleration in organic growth in the second half versus Q2, obviously, 2.5 months into that second half. I just wonder if you can talk to what recent trading has been like?

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

Sure. Yes. Look, it -- the way that we trade with Q4 in particular is it varies slightly by division, but there are some similarities. So when you come to things like beauty, there are key events that take place, which you work all year on working with brands, et cetera, to pull together. And as a result of that, they end up being -- an example would be, say, for example, a Cult Beauty Advent Calendar. So a Cult beauty Advent Calendar is GBP 1,100 worth of product value this year. That's in an advent calendar, which we've worked with the brands in putting together. It then sells on the website for, say, GBP 250. Now that's obviously not available any other in the year. So it's not a monthly revenue channel.

But last year, we produced 15,000 of those calendars. This year, it's 30,000 of those calendars. Last year, the price of that product, I think, was GBP 215 and maybe it's GBP 250 or something this year. Now those products will -- are essentially presold because we create a waiting list for it. And obviously, we could produce more, we could sell more. But as a result, there will be a waiting list we expect by the time that they go on launch on the 1st of October, there will be a waiting list. We suspect about 160,000 people for 30,000 of those products, very, very unique, very special and it's rewarding people for basically their loyalty through the year.

They will sell out in very fast order. Now as a result, they're the kind of things that -- and use that as an example, but that's quite common trading. And then there are other events then as you come into Q4, both for something like that. Cult Beauty, lookfantastic, Myprotein and so on and so forth, that would then bring strong margin accretion in those periods as well because of the high-margin events, big revenue and big sellout events and they grow year-on-year. So they're the kind of things that we put together that would drive the activity and the growth that we've seen each year in that regard. And look -- then when you look at other areas, we trade quite differently, sometimes in Nutrition, got real strength in Asia, and we're playing to all the Asia trading days in there.

There is -- I think we mentioned it in the RNS or in the video, where we talk about, we are expecting an increasing momentum notably across the Nutrition division. And hopefully, that kind of answers your question around how you're seeing the current environment. Sure the current environment and the broader senses, the macro conditions are quite challenging. But within that, we've got our own set of levers that allow us to take market share and grow and you've seen that so that momentum running through in, say, Nutrition and so forth. So...

[Steven Whitehead, executive]

Look, just on that point, obviously, a quick top-up to that on Nutrition. It's a good case in point because it's precisely in H1 where it should be as a business. So on an organic basis, 3-year basis, it's over 60% bigger than it was in 2019. So you've got just as many customers in Nutrition in H1 with absolutely stable, actually increasing AOVs and stable repeat metrics and those kind of key readings. So they're behaving exactly how they should do. Yes, the comps are -- obviously, COVID comp in H1 '21, Q2 last year -- Q2 was the biggest quarter last year for Nutrition as you had the reopening on top of it being a COVID quarter at the start of the gym reopening. So actually, the comps are [indiscernible], but the business just rolls into H2 and the comparator is off. But actually, the performance of the underlying consumers and how they're spending and how they're growing is absolutely within our guidance. So that kind of dynamic underpins the confidence going into the second half to hit that 10% to 15% for the full year.

[Operator]

We will take the next question from Andrew Ross from Barclays.

[Andrew Ross, analyst]

Great. I've got 2. Both on debt, if that's okay. The first one is on the GBP 156 million credit that you have approved. Can you just give us a bit more detail on the terms behind that. So the rate you're paying, any covenants attached on what needs to happen there actually to finally signed off?

And then the second question is on the maturity of your debt. I think that GBP 156 million is 3 years, but correct me if that's wrong. And then I think there's a GBP 600 million facility that's due in 2026. Now I hear you on the guidance of free cash flow breakeven in '23 and positive in '24, but clearly, there's a lot going on in the world that isn't all in your control. So can you talk us through the stress testing that you've run on is that free cash flow path doesn't happen? And how you would think about refinancing the maturities for the coming June in '25 and '26?

[Steven Whitehead, executive]

Andrew, I'll just pick up on the opening points. And then the other guys will jump in elsewhere. So look, the -- on both the 3-year GBP 156 million facility and on the noncore freehold asset disposal, they are both expected to complete in very short order post these results. So it's very well advanced. We're not going to disclose the full details of those terms other than to say they're absolutely align with the debt structures that we have in place, the covenant like features. Yes, it is 3 years. Yes, it is on attractive terms, which sits between where probably the market is. And certainly, today, for a lot of debt and certainly where the market was. So it's in a beneficial place and it's not expected to be drawn. So it will sit there as matched effectively that cash -- cash return will match the margin. So it's all about that optionality on top of what's already at the half year of GBP 266 million of cash on hand and the undrawn RCF of GBP 170 million is already a very strong balance sheet position.

You're right on the Term Loan B, that is December '26 as well. And I think we've outlined that within a very sensible set of historic tramlines around revenue growth, margin assumptions, the '23 and '24, we'll see cash flow neutrality and then positive cash generation. You're looking at another 2 years beyond that before you get into mitigating actions and otherwise, of which is probably not 1 for this call other than to say, the variability of the cost base is significant. You've got -- you can take days out of working capital, you can look at your headcount piece. And look, historically, we've added 1,000 to 2,000 new heads a year. That's probably a GBP 35 million to GBP 40 million a year P&L cost to the business carries, which is investment for growth in the future. So you've got levers all over the business, but you're talking for 4 years out with some very, very clear near-term progression points, the neutrality with a very, very strong cash position today.

[Andrew Ross, analyst]

Maybe just to follow up. I mean, into next year, I think you said to Rob's question, but you would aspire to growing 15% and getting to roughly 7% margin to get to that free cash flow neutral points. But if things didn't go your way, I guess, which of those 2 things would you prioritize? Should we assume that you would rather grow 15% and be happy to push back free cash flow progress sideways? Or would you prioritize that move to free cash flow positive given the question on the debt?

[Steven Whitehead, executive]

Yes. So look, the point on 2023 is we are consciously silence on formal guidance. The cash flow table is illustrative just to show that this business model, well within those historic norms, gets to that neutrality position. If it moves out right a quarter or 2 quarters because of one of the variable points, then that's the kind of order of latitude that we expect. In terms of how we view that trade-off between sales, EBITDA and then, of course, the cash generation that comes from that EBITDA. It's worth thinking about the gross margin progression that we expect to come through next year. So we know that the way protein prices is down from historic highs over -- down over 20% from those Q1 highs, and we're locking in those margin benefits now, which on a forward basis, as we buy, will hit the P&L in Q4.

So you then got a full year benefit of that locked in higher margin that we see in Q4, an expectation that, that continues to fall off, then you've got more optionality to drive demand because you didn't get the question of how do I play that tune between sales growth, demand and EBITDA and then the cash generation that comes from it, with probably 200 basis points of the 450 basis points gross margin investment you've seen in consumer price protection in H1. If you took a 200 basis points improvement through all of next year, that gives you a significant bandwidth to play that [indiscernible] between sales growth, EBITDA and then the cash generation that comes off.

So we have the flexibility in the business to adapt through the year on that into what is a very stable customer base. So I can't be prescriptive on the answer as to which one right now and to what measure we would offset it. But yes, you'll see progressive revenue growth. Yes, you'll see EBITDA growth, and we're able to play that [indiscernible] quite flexibly through '23.

[Operator]

We will take the next question from Karl Burns from Canaccord.

[Karl Burns, analyst]

Just a quick one for me. I was just wondering, just on that margin question again. Can you maybe just be a bit more granular in terms of where the tailwinds are for 2023? Sort of how you might see the bridge to potentially 7%.

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

Sure. So I'll take that one and the other guys can jump in if needed. So in terms of the first half, you've got a 410 basis points margin reduction year-on-year, which is primarily around supporting the consumers. And the majority of that would sit in the Nutrition division. And then to give you the breakdown of that, Q1 would have suffered the majority of that. And so the momentum in Q2 is much stronger to such an extent that if you look at your adjusted earnings, you probably got of that pre-IFRIC change, the accounting standard adoption. You probably had something in the range of 80% of the adjusted earnings happened in Q2 versus Q1.

And so that gives you an idea of that margin progression as you've come through in that -- in Q2 anyway. And to be clear, April was the peak for inflation as we've seen it in the U.K. and every month thereafter you have been seeing deflation on a month-by-month basis. So what you will then see is as months pass by, the margin stack is improving any way. So just naturally, so the gross profit margins are going up on that kind of trend. And that then feeds through to the bottom line. What we would then see in 2023 is you've obviously got your comp in that 410 basis points anyway in the first half.

And then you've got that added momentum and tailwinds of commodity pricing in the Nutrition division being materially down. So the latest pricing on the publicly traded sweet whey protein, I think, is somewhere in the order of, say, 900 -- early EUR 900 a ton versus a peak of EUR 1,460 in April. So that's the kind of reduction you see in -- which then feeds through to what we would pay. And then -- and that then underpins your gross margin progression in the Nutrition division through next year. So you should see, as we're coming to next year, around about -- we've grown in our heads on a full-year basis, around about 200 basis points gross margin improvement. We assume a much reduced need to support the consumer in Q4, in particular because the inflation should be coming back our way.

So we shouldn't need to increase prices at all. Any further reading of anything is then when can we start reducing prices? And then if you come into the full year impact of that, once the market has normalized and our margin stack is relatively normalized, then we'll start to reduce it. But we're looking at a group level, 200 basis points for next year, of which you saw 410 basis points in the first half. Obviously, the first quarter was some of the worst of that as we've absorbed that pricing and to wait and see almost to try and shield the consumer. And then we've put them up -- our pricing up at a delayed rate for that. And as a result, we'll then get the benefit of that next year. I don't know if helps.

Then, obviously, there are operational savings that come on top. You've got 110 basis points saving in the first half in our cost of serving in the logistics costs through all the automation and distribution, we don't need to flat products all over the world to the same extent at all anymore because it's all in territory. We expect that to flow through. And then we've got automation opening in the U.S. at the end of the year, which then should further support an improvement next year. As a reminder in the video, I think it's something around about 70% cost saving on picking a Beauty product through the automated service than the current manual process that would, say, exist in the U.S. and that's what we've seen in the U.K.

So you'll see cost to serve continue to come down in 2023. As that automation kicks in and the global network stabilizes, 200 basis points improvement in gross profit margin. And then we have then delivered through the [indiscernible] project, the divisional [indiscernible] significant cost savings. I think we've highlighted GBP 30 million of annual savings that have been delivered as of today. We get the full year benefit of that next year. There are some additional duplicated costs that will come out as a result of that. So that will come out of the OpEx as well. But they are the key factors, 200 basis gross -- basis points improvement in gross margin, continued improvement in cost to serve as you come through the year. And then -- but we expect that to offset any inflation as it already has done. And then the OpEx as well from duplicated costs.

[Operator]

We will take the next question from Roland French from Davy.

[Roland French, analyst]

It's Roland French from Davy here. I've got a couple of questions, if I could. Maybe just starting with the pricing strategy, and I guess it pertains predominantly to Myprotein. So if you look across the competitor stack, very few have not taken pricing towards the level of full recovery. So presumably, the underrecovery of price from your perspective has kind of widened that price leadership. So what I'm trying to drill into is it jars with the implied Q2 performance. I know it's against a tougher comp, but I would have thought that, that widening price competitiveness would have given you a stronger print. So maybe just some infill around performance and strategy around Myprotein pricing? That's the first question.

And then secondly, relatedly, maybe some color on format trends and what you're seeing around that consumer behavior in context of cost of living crisis and any geographic callouts?

And then finally, again on Nutrition, just where you were in H1 on hedging whey? Where I think I recall, you had earlier stepped away from some hedging, but maybe had come back into the market. Where were you in H1? Where are you in H2? And what's your thinking beyond into 2023?

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

I'll deal with the Nutrition pieces together there, if that's okay. On the hedging policy, the way we -- we don't typically spot buy. We'll always have a little bit of spot buy because demand variances, et cetera, but we would typically forward buy in a quarter or even forward buy in a half. So where we will have changed things is in a relatively stable market, we would maybe forward buy for a full half and then top it with spot purchases as the market then sees dramatic increases in price. And I think on the charts, you guys will see, sweet whey protein commodity on the open market has tripled, I think, from a normal rate of, say, GBP 400 to GBP 500 that went up to GBP 1460.

So in that kind of environment, we've seen that steep curve. You wouldn't then going forward buy for a full half because it's real gambling. And so what we would do is typically then when you get volatility, we will buy a quarter ahead. And until that then normalizes that's typically how we'll continue to operate. In terms of then, how do you see demand, it is worth just reminding people the level of shock that consumers across the world have seen in certain areas, when you've got your core base products that have gone almost tripled during that period. That's been quite a lot as you start feeding that through to consumers for them to take on board. We monitor all data from Google, we look at competitors and the orders that they're taking, so on and so forth. And then we have also comped lockdowns where people could only really buy online. So when you take all of those factors combined, we're very, very pleased with where we are. It is worth remembering that in the Nutrition business, in the numbers that you see, there is manufacturing revenues in there.

So we manufacture bars and snacks and drinks for other people, many well-known brands that we would do that for. Now when we've invested in those businesses 18 months ago or so, we've invested in those businesses not for those revenues. We've invested in those businesses for the core capability and product development they will bring to the Nutrition brand over the long term. And so as you then have got to switch some of that revenue into just serving yourself, then that does have an impact on that Nutrition revenue line. So that Nutrition revenue line, the underlying trend is better than that. You've just got some level of mask in there just from the manufacture revenues and the impact that, that has in there. But at the same time, you're comping lockdowns and you have had to put prices up very significantly to reflect that the core ingredients have gone up exponentially. And we've softened some of that for the consumer. But then we have a very good, strong underlying trend that sits beneath that. That gives us confidence around look forward. So that was Nutrition. I missed the other question on that.

[Steven Whitehead, executive]

No. I think you've got it. I mean, there's other points around geographical highlights.

[Roland French, analyst]

Yes, it's more just format and geography.

[Steven Whitehead, executive]

Yes. The geographical highlights, it remains super strong here in the U.K. It's -- I think we may have touched on it before, but there's a BCG survey of a couple of thousand people in the U.K. last year where it came ahead of Nike and Lululemon as a sports brand to recommend. So it has that entrenched position in this market and that is robust, really strong double-digit growth in key territories like the U.S., Australia, some Middle East territories we've moved into.

So the model absolutely applies. It's the same stable customer metrics, but the reality is you're comping a Q2 and part of the Q2 in lockdown than the other part of Q2, it was a reopening spike, right? So you get a double kick as those leisure and other COVID restrictions were lifted mid-April to mid-July last year.

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

And to give you even more color on the -- presuming all these questions are on Nutrition, that is. Australia is seeing fantastic growth. We've opened a big distribution center there. We've put Beauty and Nutrition into it, phenomenal growth that we've seen out there, and that's on a reduced product range because when you open a big facility, we can't put the entire product ranging on day 1 and every couple of months, it gets to the fuller range, but that's the model of doing that. U.S., as Steve has talked about there, making really solid progress across the U.S., one of the highlight territories on many levels for us. Asia remains strong. And as Steve touched on there, U.K. is consistent. They've been a really strong market for us.

[Operator]

We'll take the next question from Simon Bowler from Numis.

[Simon Bowler, analyst]

Four. I hope to kind of quick fire ones, if that's okay. Firstly, on Ingenuity, you've previously kind of spoken to at least 400 websites in the year ahead, 85% of which were contracted. Can you confirm that we still going to end this year with that sort of number of websites being launched?

Secondly, on the CapEx, I think in the voiceover, Matt, you kind of spoke to GBP 130 million to GBP 140 million is potentially being kind of a long-term corridor, but the midterm guidance is reiterated at 5.5% to 6.5% of sales. Can you just help us align those 2 comments? And also just to confirm whether the GBP 130 million next year is net of any kind of anticipated disposals.

Thirdly, it's just -- can you just remind us what -- any covenants are on the RCF facility that you've got? I think there may be with regards to gross debt leverage, I don't know if you can help us with thinking about numbers around what that might be?

And then fourthly and finally, it's just for modeling purposes, if you can help us with the anticipated interest cost for '22 and '23, that would be useful.

[John Gallemore, executive]

Yes, sure. Well, in terms of the number of websites, Simon, as you can see the progression coming through in the chart on the slide there. I think there's 2 points to take out of that. Firstly, in terms of the strategics, such as the businesses we've listed in the food and bev category. And there, we said 7 of the top 20. We've actually got 8 of the top 20 with 1 that we've got this morning as well. So the strategics are investing and continuing to invest. I think where we're seeing some -- not coming away is the more speculative sites now with any brand owner that we've got, we won't force a brand owner to launch a site. So we've got a bank of websites, and we've got good growth coming and we've got good growth with existing clients. But you can just draw your own conclusions through the trajectory that we've got in terms of number of websites, but we are 57% up on where we were a year ago with very, very strong recurring revenues across the existing client base.

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

On the CapEx point, the GBP 130 million to GBP 140 million doesn't include any views on disposals or anything like that. We do have some other bits of freehold if that are around, but that was the answer on that. There were 2 other things, Matt, do you want to cover the RCF?

[Matt Rothwell, executive]

Yes, I'll take those. So the specific forecast is sort of 5% illustrative for that year. That's obviously ahead of the medium-term guidance of 5.5% to 6.5%. That's an illustration on how we get to the free cash flow positive position from 2024 onwards, and we're not changing medium-term guidance on CapEx. But obviously, it shows the optionality we've got in the businesses, as Matt touched on earlier. In terms of the Term Loan B, that is incredibly covenant-light, any covenants only spring into play when the RCF is more than 40% drawn. And in all sensitivity scenarios, we don't have any requirement to pull that down. And indeed, the additional financing that we secured, well, is, as Steve touched on, and incredibly attractive in the current debt markets, and we're incredibly pleased with that.

And the fact that coming from existing lenders shows the support the group has from its existing lender base. And then on the medium-term guidance, we're keeping with financing costs and taxes at around GBP 100 million, which is current year and we expect that to be into the future. The new financing wouldn't be drawn as well. So it will go on to balance sheet, I think because it's a low format that we can accommodate it within the GBP 100 million medium-term guidance.

[Operator]

We will take the next question from Guido Lucarelli from Citi.

[Guido Lucarelli, analyst]

Apologize, I had some technical issues before. So 3 on my side, please, 2 related to the implied guidance in the second half of the year. I see that -- I was wondering if you could give us some color on the different trends by division. Should we expect the same relative trends between Beauty, between Nutrition [indiscernible] in the second half. And if so, what would make Beauty accelerate on an underlying basis, given the [indiscernible] was helped by M&A contribution. I appreciate the comments on the importance of key events, but I guess that is something also that should play an important role every year. So I was wondering if there was another significant moving part there.

And, again, on the implied guidance for the second half, how should we think about gross margin? I guess, at the midpoint of the guidance, you are roughly -- you have a small dilution versus the second half of 2021. So should we think that something at gross margin at OpEx level in line with the second half of 2021?

And the last one, do you see any risk for the next year, for next September when the special share, I guess, will lap over the company potentially [indiscernible] evaluation, which is not the one in the best interest of the shareholders. And is there anything that you can do to protect yourself in that kind of situation?

[Matt Rothwell, executive]

I'll just recap that because the line is a little bit difficult. So first question was on the divisional separation. And is there any color we can give on the divisional margin split. So we'll cover that. And then a question around whether there's an implied acceleration in Beauty into H2. We touched on that earlier, but we'll recap the points that give us confidence in the Beauty acceleration. The implied margin guidance in gross profit for H2, again, Matt touched on that a little bit earlier around that, but we'll recap it. And then final point was around the special share, which, as you've touched on, does fall away at September '23. So...

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

I'll start. Special share, it just falls away at the -- in a year's time. Obviously, just to remind people what that special share is, it purely just allows me personally to block any takeover of THG. So we're 12 months away from -- probably 11.5 months away from that expiring. On the divisional splits, I don't think we're intending -- it's all been done, the work is ongoing. You obviously needed to go through a proper audit process and make sure everything is robust all the individual divisional cash flows, margins, et cetera, are filtering through. The team are obviously working on that, making sure these are robust. And once that is complete, and the auditors are also happy with it, then clearly, we'll be reporting that.

[Steven Whitehead, executive]

So on that point, we will start to give that divisional disclosure through -- from the start of next year, and just to make the point, it completed in June, not in December. So from June effectively and just before June, you've got that the monthly balance sheet, cash flow, P&L position, which is going to need more than a 1-month turn before it becomes a market material to share. So it will come out from the start of next year.

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

And then in terms of what are we seeing for Beauty, I think you might have actually mentioned 2023 in there. Just to remind everybody, the sheer increase that Beauty has seen over the last couple of years has been an incredible step up in the scale of that business. Even prior to that, we have consistently grown this business at a significant growth rate of 30%, 40% kind of CAGR numbers has been a regular feature. And so as we look forward on that, yes, we've got the special events that should underpin a strong performance in half 2.

And then as we look into 2023, we look at underlying trends. And yes, whilst we've then absorbed those comps, we'd expect that -- we can see that, that growth rate, that demand there going forward should support that. But even putting that to one side, we don't expect to see anything other than a steady migration and penetration of online versus offline. The number of department stores is likely to continue to fall, which has been a key player in the global Beauty market through the years. Online penetration will continue to increase and Beauty as a category despite the global macro position remains an incredibly robust in a growth market. So we feel they're the kind of factors that we would see for the look through.

In terms of then H2 gross profit margins, I mean, the simplest way that I would look at it for you is if you were to assume somewhere in the order of about 200 basis points margin improvement half-on-half. So half 2 versus half 1, that would give you a feel for how we see that feeding through. And that would -- you can get that quite quickly just by looking at Q1 versus Q2 and say, well, actually, the worst margin month would have been in Q1, so you can soon get to that 200 basis points improvement for half 2.

[Operator]

We will take the last question from Karl Burns from Canaccord.

[Karl Burns, analyst]

Yes, this is one more sort of directed to, Matt, really, and it's more of a sort of broader question on the reflections on the listing over the last sort of 2 years, really, in just media coverage, et cetera. And sort of where the business goes from here given the share price, the current valuation?

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

Sure. Look, I mean, looking back over the last 2 years, I often get asked what's my view? Have I got any advice because a number of people that may be looking at listing in the U.K. would reach out to have a conversation. I mean, look, the single piece of advice I'd ever give anybody is more so than all of the sort of the daily running of the business and numbers and all those things is, my view is there's a small group of people that you need to have involved at the IPO. As you come to IPO, that same group of people probably need to be [indiscernible] from the IPO and you need to retain them in the IPO or the post the IPO there afterwards. And if you don't kind of do that, then there's a great deal of risk that you're going to have a THG-type experience. So apart from that, I don't really -- I think it's really down to the individuals around are you really dead set on listing in the U.K. And if you are and you're a growth business, especially, that would be the kind of rules that I would apply personally.

I mean, look, on your view on the media, I mean we've not changed our strategy nor our advisers actually as many people have might suggested in the past. And it's been 2 years, it's been quite an interesting 2 years with the media or experience that we've had. Karl, I think the best thing I can say to you there is I got a call from one of our advisers last week, really interesting call for me, a very senior guy and he was out for dinner with a very senior person in a well-known business newspaper. And THG actually came up as a conversation. And essentially, the story that came back was that, that media outlet had obviously received some phone calls around shortly after our IPO, suggesting that THG is [indiscernible] as many people have said.

And so as a result of that, that media outlook set up a war room, filled it with journalists and then spent the next 2 years trying to uncover anything possible about THG. And actually, the conclusion at that dinner was that actually we probably are all right, which is not a bad result because I believe they also discussed Mike Ashley and [indiscernible] at 15 years and the people probably just decided that he has obviously done an incredible job with his business.

And so look, I think my view would be that, that's probably a similar story. It's quite unique in the U.K. market with the media that people can ring up and make claims against the company and war rooms are set up and then people spend 2 years putting the water right against you, but that's just life, isn't it? So we just carry on. We don't change our strategy. We don't change anything. We just keep on delivering to our numbers. And it's all about internally taking market share, do the best job we possibly can doing right by the people in our business by our local communities in the U.K. And eventually, if it takes us 15 years, then that's for people to think we're actually all right, then we'll do that. But we can only control what we can control.

[Operator]

I will now hand you back over to your speakers for closing remarks.

[Matthew Moulding, executive]

Okay. Well, listen, thanks, everybody. I appreciate the time invested. And rest assured, we'll carry on, and we've got a busy few months ahead, and we hope to update you shortly with the progress that we make. But thanks, everybody, for their support and look forward to speaking soon.