Smiths News PLC

LSE:SNWS

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q2

[Jonathan Bunting, executive]

Okay, should we start? So good morning, everyone. Welcome to Smiths News plc's interim results for FY '23. It's good to be back meeting in person again. And I'm delighted we have a strong set of results to present today; certainly a stronger set of results than my voice which appears to be going, so I do apologize if I'm a little more [ softly spoken ] than I would normally be.

So let's make a start. As usual, I'll introduce the session with a summary of the highlights. Paul Baker, our CFO, will then review our financial performance. And finally, I'll give some greater detail on the progress we have made with our priorities this year. The overriding message of our results presentation will, hopefully, be clear: that Smiths News continues to drive shareholder value, delivering positive and predictable results even in uncertain economic environments. As always, we welcome any questions you may have, and we'll take these at the end of the slides. And finally, can I remind everyone this presentation is being recorded and will be available to view on the Investors section of our website later this afternoon.

So starting with the headlines. We have delivered a good performance in challenging macro environments. Our key metrics are all either ahead or in line with plan, and we are well positioned to make progress over the full year. Adjusted operating profit of GBP 20.4 million is up 6.8% and profit before tax of GBP 17.1 million is up 11.8%. Earnings per share at 5.6p is up by 9.8%. And average net debt of GBP 26.3 million is down by 55.3%.

Central to these results are 3 factors: firstly, an acceleration of price rises that have seen our sales revenues grow year-on-year, providing a temporary reversal of the gradual decline that remains the long-term trend; secondly, the further benefit of margin mix from the continued strong sales of one shots, including collectibles and one-off special editions; and thirdly, the close management of costs to ensure that the impact of inflation is in line with plan and our long-term efficiencies are also delivering as expected. I should say that all of this has been achieved in tandem with strong service metrics that ensure delivery rectification costs are minimized. And as a result, we are on track to meet full year expectations.

We've also made progress with our strategic goals. Last autumn, we talked in detail about our contract strategy and the exploration of new business opportunities. I'm delighted that, in the period, we've continued to make progress with our publisher contracts; and now have 65% of our current sales revenues secured under agreement at improved terms through to at least 2029. This is critical not just to revenue and cash flow planning but the operational certainty it brings, supporting our ability to plan the sustainable efficiencies that are key to our value model.

New profit stream opportunities have also made progress, most notably with our waste recycling offer that has moved from a small regional trial to a network-wide rollout and equally and -- the expansion of supply chain adjacent categories to leading retailers. It's early days, but we're encouraged by progress that I will cover later in today's presentation.

So in summary, across the key areas of sales, costs and securing our future, we've got a pleasing first period.

Now I'm going to hand over to Paul, who will present our financial performance in more detail.

[Paul Baker, executive]

Thank you, Jon. And good morning, everyone.

Starting with the financial headlines. Revenues increased in the period by 1%, which is ahead of historic trends, driven by pricing from publishers as they recover inflationary input costs; and sales from one-off events, including the World Cup in the autumn of 2022. I will cover revenue in a little more detail on the next slide. Management of our input costs and consistent delivery from our operations team in driving efficiencies have helped mitigate inflationary pressures. The benefit from additional sales and positive margin have therefore resulted in adjusted operating profit of GBP 20.4 million, an increase of GBP 1.3 million from 2022. Earnings per share increased by 9.8% to 5.6p.

Continuing free cash flow for the period was an outflow of GBP 0.2 million, which includes a GBP 13.6 million working capital movement which is part of our normal working capital cycle. Full year free cash flow is on target to be in line with expectations. It is also worth noting the prior period included one-off receipts from deferred consideration and pension surplus totaling GBP 14.6 million.

The dividend proposed is in line with last year. And the business anticipates distributing up to the maximum permitted under our financing agreement of GBP 10 million, subject to half 2 performance.

Now to give a little more color to revenues. Newspaper revenue increased by 0.5% in the half. These revenues were supported by news events of 0.9% as well as benefiting from 27 price increases across the previous 6 months compared to 16 the year before. These increases are expected to slow in the second half. And the impact of lower volumes means we expect to see newspaper revenues start to decline in half 2, exiting the year more in line with historic trends of minus 3% to 5%. Magazine revenues declined at 6.1%, which is in line with historic norms.

One shots continued to perform well and benefited in the period from the World Cup, strong Premier League collection performance and one-off titles. Whilst positive from a margin perspective, this growth has a relatively small impact on total revenues.

Adjusted operating profit increased by GBP 1.3 million, with the margin benefits from one shots and additional pricing dropping through. The cost reduction program is in line with plan. And while there is more to do in half 2, this is a similar shape to prior years, with a clear tracking and visibility. Inflationary costs have been managed in line with planning assumptions, and while the macro picture continues to be uncertain, we are not seeing significant changes to our assumptions.

Net finance charges have reduced by GBP 0.5 million, as the extension of our debt facilities last year resulted in lower bank arrangement fees. The impact from higher SONIA rates were offset by the lower average net debt. The effective tax rate has increased in the period in line with U.K. corporate tax rises.

As mentioned in the key headlines, earnings per share increased by 9.8%: 8.1% driven by the increase in operating profit and 1.7% due to slightly higher holding of shares in the EBT.

Turning to free cash flow. The prior period cash inflow of GBP 17.5 million benefited from GBP 14.6 million of one-off receipts. The underlying inflow of GBP 2.9 million compares with a small outflow of GBP 0.2 million in the first half 2023, with GBP 5 million of receivables received on the first day of the second half.

Capital expenditure at GBP 2.1 million is ahead of last year but aligned to our target of circa GBP 4 million per annum. Following reduced expenditure during COVID, we are now back on track with our depot refurbishment program and expect this level of expenditure going forward. Lease payments are broadly flat year-on-year, with some increases in the 6 renewals in the period mitigated by leases exited as part of our network efficiency program.

The cash impact of adjusting items was GBP 0.7 million, which largely related to the costs of due diligence and legal fees of a bolt-on acquisition that was aborted. Jon will explain the context of this later when discussing our strategy and progress in pursuing adjacent revenue streams.

The business bank net debt continues to reduce, and here you see the last 12 months reduction from half 1 2022. Importantly, the rolling 12 months operating cash flow of GBP 23.2 million remains consistent and predictable, which enables the business to plan with certainty and provide clear guidance. Average net debt was reduced by GBP 33 million compared with half 1 2022, or 55%, due to the impact of GBP 22.1 million of one-off receipts received, the last of which was the GBP 7.5 million you see on the graph received in May 2022.

And finally, looking forward, we have given some modeling guidance on the [ final finance ] chart, which remains unchanged from the preliminaries.

So now back to Jon.

[Jonathan Bunting, executive]

Thanks, Paul.

So to summarize our results this period. We've had a good performance delivering our numbers and meeting the key targets and priorities we set for the year. I won't repeat each point on the slide, but the overall momentum will, hopefully, be clear. It follows that we have a strong foundation on which to build further value. Therefore, in the second half of today's presentation, I'd like to look at the progress we're making to this goal and how our plans are shaped by our ambition to deliver success for all stakeholders. At the heart of those plans is Smiths News business -- wholesale business. Hence, understanding what it does and how it delivers such a unique service is critical to also understanding the logic of our growth strategy.

As I indicated a moment ago, the Smiths News business is founded on a unique, highly specialized network and service proposition. Our 36 depots have a hub-and-spoke configuration making around 24,000 daily deliveries to retailers across in England and Wales, amounting to 55% of the U.K. newspaper magazine market. We cover the majority of the major urban conurbations south of Scotland, meaning our territories have a high density to match their fixed footprint. In effect, we go to the same customers every day, making deliveries and collecting returns in a predictable pattern that supports high levels of service and efficiency. In addition, we have exclusive contracts with all key publishers, meaning that we are the only supplier of news and magazines in our territories. This exclusivity provides a synergy of both delivery volumes and distribution timings, supporting a cost-efficient supply chain for both publishers and retailers and, with it, a predictability of volumes and costs that shapes our own distribution model. Ultimately, this unique supply chain has then evolved in a way that means we are an essential partner to both our retail customers and our publisher clients, with long-established trading relationships that underpin our business model and strategy for future value creation.

With this in mind, we look ahead. And there are 3 elements to our plans, which we wish to continue to deliver success for all of our stakeholders: firstly, accelerating our contract renewals to provide clarity of operations and visibility of likely cash flows over time; secondly, delivering great service efficiently every day. Not only does this justify the exclusivity arrangement for our contracts. It's also essential to efficiency, for there is no greater wasted cost than that driven by the need to rectify delivery or packing errors. And last but not least, the creation of new profit opportunity by leveraging our assets and our customer base, securing additional profit in a way that complements our core business rather than distracts. In all 3 of these areas, we've made good progress over the last 6 months, and I'd like to look at each 1 in turn.

So firstly, our contracts. The vast majority of our exclusive publisher contracts run for 5 years, and we renew these periodically as part of our course of normal business. Over the 12 months, however, we've worked to accelerate the renewal calendar so that we now have 65% of our business secured on improved terms to at least 2029. The graphic to the right shows the proportion of total business that we've resecured through to at least 2029. In fact, it would almost be exactly the same had we shown separate charts for newspapers and magazines. This means, as well as having accelerated the contract renewals for 2/3 of our business, we have also achieved a representative spread of major publishers and categories across those agreements, effectively establishing a template for the supply chain as a whole.

I should emphasize that remaining contracts are operating well and we are making good progress in our discussions. There is no reason to believe that we will not have more positive news in this regard in H2. That said, each contract renewal has a pace of its own and a rhythm of its own; and we have plenty of time to renegotiate the remaining contracts.

Looking at service. In relation to delivering great service, we are passionate about exceeding our contractual requirements. I'm proud to be the market leader not only in size and financially but in the service we provide too. We have market-leading KPIs across all of the critical measures for publishers and retail customers. Every month, we deliver 44 million newspapers, 12 million magazines. And we collect 22 million returns. This is a scaled distribution business by any measure.

I should add these are delivered in the tightest of time windows, requiring a coordination of multiple inbound deliveries to reach the vast majority of our customers before 6:30 a.m. every morning. And in terms of efficiency, we have a capital-light model using subcontractors for final-mile deliveries and returns collections. And the fixed nature of our deliveries means we can plan routing in a way that is predictable and minimizes wasted miles. Longer term, we are constantly reviewing our network, our routing and our technology to find efficiencies that offset the gradual structural decline in volumes. And finally, we have recognized that these levels of service and efficiency across our network and as a daily partner to our customers offers a range of opportunities for growth that complement and enhance our core profit streams.

So turning to those new profit streams. Last November, we spoke about our strategy for growth; and our approach to being -- and our approach being to enhance the core, add more and move up the value chain. We talked in detail about the steps we've taken to identify a carefully selected range of growth opportunities that were complementary to our core business. We presented these as a spectrum of potential that leveraged our physical capabilities and our existing supply chain relationships, using the combination of our core capabilities and our spare capacity either directly or in partnership with others. Our focus was on expanding our service to existing customers; and/or partnering with suppliers, who would benefit from access to our asset, skills and customer base.

All of the avenues we presented then remain open and active, and indeed we've made progress across them all. In one case, we pursued a small bolt-on acquisition that we believe would give us [ said ] scale and boost our entry into a highly complementary market. Unfortunately, the economics of the proposed transaction and the change in macro environment at that point would have made it imprudent to proceed. And hence, despite our best endeavors and a great deal of effort, we took the decision to withdraw. Of course, we would have preferred a different outcome, but the decision serves to underline that, while we are committed to pursuing new profit opportunities, we are not dependent on progress at the expense of prudence. We will give a more comprehensive update at the full year, but for now I'd like to talk about 2 of the areas which we find particularly encouraging.

So firstly, Smiths News Recycle. Last year, starting with a trial from our Birmingham depot, we launched a small service for our -- for cardboard and plastic waste collection. It's a simple and convenient solution for our retailers that backs onto our daily deliveries and returns processing capabilities. Over the last 6 months, we've expanded the availability offer; and in February, launched it across our entire network. We now have almost 1,900 registered retailers, with around 100 new sign-ups every week.

More than 700 of our delivery rounds are making collections. And in terms of physical recycling, we are processing an additional 50 tonnes of cardboard and plastic waste each month. I should stress that, while we are pleased with initial take-up, we remain in trial mode, refining the offer, measuring the economics and assessing its ability to operate at scale. This is a really important part of our approach to profitable growth across all the opportunities we've identified.

And secondly, a quick update on supplying new categories. You may recall, in the summer of '22, we trialed the pick-pack distribution and returns collection of DVDs to a leading supermarket, again leveraging our existing capabilities and piggybacking onto our existing news and magazine deliveries. This year, we've expanded this service to 2 other supermarkets and broadened the solution to include books with 1 of these customers. We're undertaking this in -- this activity in partnership with Frontline, one of our magazine distributors. Between us, we are able to offer our supermarket customers an end-to-end supply chain solution for a range of adjacent categories.

Ultimately, we believe there is a wider opportunity across our full customer base, but for now we are focused on building a scaled offer that adds value through category management as well as an efficient and easy delivery for retail stores. In summary, we're pleased with the progress and excited about the further profit opportunities that this may create and the way it may well, in fact, deliver tangible value to all of our stakeholders.

Of course, the pursuit of tangible value is central to our commitment to shareholders too. Over the last 3 years, since rebranding to Smiths News plc, we've delivered on our plans and been diligent in our commitment to focus on the transparent objectives and, in doing so, creating long-term value even throughout the uniquely challenging times of the pandemic. And as a consequence, the strength of our balance sheet has been transformed, with the average net debt halving from GBP 98.8 million to GBP 49.9 million and now further reduced to GBP 26.3 million at the end of H1 FY '23. And in tandem, as debt has fallen, we've increased the dividend, renegotiating the terms of our banking facilities twice so that shareholders have a greater share of our cash rewards, which brings me back to the start.

If we look at the outlook for the current period: After a strong 12 months of [ pricing ], we anticipate revenue and volume returning to historic trends in the second half. With a clear flight path for cost control and longer-term efficiencies, we are confident of managing the impacts of inflation to within plan. And hence, we are on track to meet full year expectations and to continue delivering success for all of our stakeholders.