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Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2023-Q4

from 0
Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to MHP's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I will now hand over to Anastasia to begin the presentation.

A
Anastasiya Sobotyuk
executive

Thank you very much, Jim. Dear stakeholders, good day to you. Thank you for joining us today at MHP's conference call dedicated to the fourth quarter and annual results of 2023. I'm Anastasiya Sobotyuk, Director of Investor Relations and ESG compliance, together with Viktoria Kapelyushnaya, CFO of MHP, we will discuss MHP's financial and operational results for 2023.

Today's call is based on the press release and financial statements released earlier today. However, during our call, we will discuss our projections and plans based on our assumptions, domestic and international, please take it into consideration.

We now move to Page #3 of the presentation. A few words about market environment first. First of all, let me provide you with the update about the [ workforce, ] first of all. War continues have a major impact on company operations. and our full year 2023 performance reflects the resilience and agility of our business model and the tremendous efforts of our workforce. Irregular and frequent drone and rocket attacks against civilian energy and other infrastructure targets continue [indiscernible] us with a challenging and disruptive logistical environment, driving additional related costs.

And the date of the publication, all our production facilities in Ukraine continues to [indiscernible] close to full capacity, and our old facilities have not suffered significant physical damage. We can not, of course, give no assurance that this will remain in the case and that our production facilities and the infrastructure that we use will not become a target of new attack. In the advance of adverse operational impact, the group responds immediately, ensuring it is ready to take all actions necessary to result restore and restart production in the shortest time possible.

Some words about macroeconomic situation. Taking into account that many businesses have been adjusting to a new operational environment in Ukraine, which remained unpredictably volatile in 2023, GDP grew by over 5%, with a forecasted growth in 2024 at around 3%. CPI slowed down to 5% compared to 2022 increase by over 26%. This year's harvest is expected to be strong at around 74 million tonnes.

Let me now proceed with the company's results for the fourth quarter of the year. We go to Slide #5 of the presentation. Let me start with operational highlights [indiscernible] poultry sales by exports, which increased by around 8% year-on-year despite different logistic challenges, mainly driven by restrictions set by neighbor countries. Total share of exports out of total poultry sales volumes increase [ 682 tonness ] remained relative stable year-on-year and constituted 57%.

Financial results for 2023 were following: Gross revenue increased by 14%, reached over USD 3 billion, with export revenue representing 60% of total revenue; adjusted EBITDA increased by 16% to $445 million, mainly due to increased exports of poultry, increased poultry prices of processes meat, increased vegetable oil sales and the strong performance of [indiscernible].

However, this was significantly offset by weaker performance for the agriculture operational segment. Net debt-on-EBITDA ratio contributed 2.47. Let's go on Slide #6 with key financials for the fourth quarter of 2023, which were following.

Group's revenue remained relatively stable, but decreased by 5%, reaching $727 million and adjusted EBITDA remained stable year-on-year and constituted $116 million with EBITDA margin of 16%, mainly driven by stronger results in poultry and the European operating segment.

Let's proceed on Page #7 of the presentation. As you can see, these are the financial results by segment. Before presenting the results, let me remind you that MHP changed the presentation of segment information, at the end of 2023 in order to accurately reflect the diverse nature of the group business operations and improve the granuality of the reporting.

As of now, MHB has 4 business segments, such as poultry and processed meat, vegetable oil operations, agricultural operations and European operating segment. As you can see, poultry and processed meat operations remained our key segment. The group generated the majority of total revenue, about 54% and 72% of the company's EBITDA.

Vegetable oil operations generated 20% of the revenue and contributed around 18% to EBITDA. The European operating segment generated approximately 18% of total revenue and 20% of the company's EBITDA. Let us have a closer look at each business segment.

And here, I pass my word to Viktoria.

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Thank you, Anastasiya. Good afternoon, everyone. Let's have precised look at poultry and related operations segment performance, Slide #8. Despite of number of digital [indiscernible] the war in Ukraine, MHP delivered a good result in Q4 last year, thanks to a combination of market environment and enormous amount of work undertaken by MHP.

Both the price in Q4, both on export and domestic market remained almost at the same level in Q3 2023 based on the assumption that international poultry prices correlating with price trends for grains, we don't expect poultry increasing in 2024. MHP is [indiscernible] only exposure to commodity price risk. The [ miscellaneous ] risk, we continue to focus more and more on noncommodity products, ready to eat and ready to cook. And full MHP's culinary transformation strategy. However, penetration and increasing our share of this market requires substantial efforts and expenses today and in the near future.

In Q4 2023, we continue to increase sales volume of process meat, we focused on the most marginal product. Our strong results for the 12 months last year, mainly driven by higher sales volume for poultry meat and export market and by increased price of processed meat. A few word about our view, Vegetable oil segment. Slide #9.

In 2023, we had an additional positive effect in vegetable oil operations due to an increase in sales volume of vegetable oil, which was partly offset by lower oil prices last year. [indiscernible] 2023, we have a negative plan in the flour prices, which led to a decrease of oil crushing margin. we assume that margin of the segment in 2024 will remain at the level of Q4 last year.

Let's move to Slide #10. Agricultural operation. It is important to highlight that due to continuous rotary strike on Ukrainian [indiscernible] infrastructure and termination of the grain used by Russia, export price for grain for Ukraine is a [indiscernible] low compared to the international print. Obviously, this circumstance negative impact, the profitability of MHP grain result, as well as all of the producers in Ukraine.

Last year harvest, around -- we have around 346,000 hectares of land in Ukraine, and there's around 2.5 million tons of growth by 22% higher than in 2022, mainly due to the favorable weather conditions during the harvesting season. It is the one -- last year, it is one of the MHP record harvest.

EBITDA, at the same time, in the back of agriculture operations segment in 2023 except net of IFRS 16 was $6 million compared to the $99 million in 2022. This result was mainly driven by significant decrease in international grain prices. We expect all agriculture segment profitability from the 2024 harvest to be close to the results of 2023.

Let's move to Slide 11. Several words about European operations segment, [indiscernible] of the European operations segment in 2023 increased to EUR $91 million mainly due to increase in sales volume and price [indiscernible] and poultry products. This was driven by increase in [ whole agricultural ] channel as well as due to increase in sales of [ sausages. ] An additional positive effect was due to decrease in grain prices is the main component for mix product production, which have reduced cost. A few words about our cash flow and liquidity position, Slide #12.

Cash flow operations, deposit changes in working capital was $377 million compared to $479 million last year. This decrease was mainly as a result of interest payments in February 2023, part of deferred interest payment consisted of its creditor in March 2024.

[indiscernible] of working capital amount $62 million in 12 months 2023, mostly due to return of stock of chicken and vegetable oil to normal level. From an usual high amount in 2022 caused by destruction logistics due to several activities. This has partly recovered after [indiscernible] due to the grain deal and diversification of the weather [indiscernible] by group.

Lower investment in raw materials during the 2023. [indiscernible] compared to the 2022 due to the relative stabilization of the creation in Ukraine economy and lowering of the traction in supply. And [indiscernible] stable amount of trade accounts receivable compared to significant growth in some flour and chicken meat receivable by the end of 2022.

Total CapEx in 2023 amounted $212 million and mainly related to [indiscernible] on diesel generators to mitigate the impact of portable power outages, high investment in cost optimization and investment and culinary strategy projects. Maintenance and new product development and [indiscernible] expansion and improving and growth of [indiscernible] production facility.

Regarding debt and our cash position. By the end of the year, the company's total debt was $1.5 billion. Net debt of $1.1 billion. As you know, there was a tender for the purchase bonds, 2024 a minimal amount $151 million in Q3. At the beginning of 2024, what made the second tender for the purchase bond in amount $138 million and current outstanding bonds 2024 is 211. The liquidity position at the end of the 2023 was $436 million in cash, $310 million of which withhold the group subsidies our site in Ukraine. But -- as today, we have our cash total provision, $316 million, including outside in -- outside Ukraine only $120 million.

It is important to note that the [indiscernible] rules instituted by National Bank of Ukraine, the foreign currency proceeds of export from Ukraine must be repatriated to Ukraine with 6 months of recognition, which in principle limit our ability to utilize of offshore cash for the debt repayment.

On November 2023, the National Bank of Ukraine decreased the maximum settlement period from 6 months to 3 months for [indiscernible] cash from the experts of specific agricultural products, including of grains and oil. Given the current operating environment and significant uncertainly, we estimate our minimum state cash balance at $200 million.

And now I give the floor to Anastasiya for updates and outlook.

A
Anastasiya Sobotyuk
executive

Thank you, Victoria. The company is not in a position to state any [indiscernible] confidence due to the continuous risk of operating in poor conditions and with major facilities in regions under assault by Russia. And they have a March and active bombings of civilian infrastructure and energy facilities were a stark reminder that the whole of the territory of Ukraine is under the threat. And extensive military operations are not compliant to the front line and which we will continue to do our outmost as a team and as a business to remain strong and agile. To push innovations ever further and to carry out our business to the highest international standards.

Crucial to maintaining full security and stability in Ukraine. The group will remain at the heart of our communities and support our people and their families as their needs change and the situation about.

Let me conclude the presentation now. We are ready for the session, and the questions. Thank you. Thank you for your cooperation in advance. Kim, we are ready for questions

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. So we have a couple of questions. So our first question comes from Stella Cridge from Barclays.

S
Stella Cridge
analyst

Hi. [indiscernible] many thanks for all of the update. I was wondering if you could just give us an idea of what you're thinking about in terms of CapEx spending in 2024, what kind of key projects that you'll be looking at? And perhaps any expectations around working capital, that would be great.

And secondly, I wanted to ask when you have fully drawn the $400 million DFI facilities. Could you let us know what the amortization profile of those facilities will be and the final maturity date? That would be great.

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

First of all, thank you. Thank you for your question. [indiscernible] forecast our budge for 2024. you understand there's a very big [indiscernible] predict and are regarding our financial results. Based on current situations, and we expect that our financial result will be around USD 400 million. Our CapEx, which we now perceive for 2024, around $300 million, because we continue to invest money in maintenance CapEx. Maintenance CapEx is very, very important well to remain and to provide maintenance -- and the construction of our facilities. And we are continuing investment in our strategy regarding the [indiscernible] company because we would like to sell and produce more and more non-commodity products, both for export and for Ukraine.

And we continue to increase our capacity in sorry, in -- in our European facilities. [indiscernible] , we don't expect -- we expect investments around $40 million on [indiscernible] because we always have some uncertainly regarding the IT tax reform. And our investment in working capital, it will depend what volume of grain specially sunflower seed[indiscernible] we would like to have by the end of the year. Our base [indiscernible] around $30 million to $40 million.

And regards maturity, maturity of [indiscernible] and amortization. Our loan for the 5 -- for 5 years from current date, today. And we -- regarding maturity, we will pay in annual restatement.

S
Stella Cridge
analyst

[indiscernible] So is it -- it would be kind of $400 million divided by -- sort of a payments over those years. Is that right?

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Correct.

S
Stella Cridge
analyst

And can I just clarify this $300 million CapEx number that you gave, does that include some of these smaller acquisitions that you've done as well that you reported today?

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Yes, yes, [indiscernible] is a cap to include this monetization year on.

Operator

Our next question comes from Himanshu Powell at Seaport Global.

U
Unknown Analyst

Very quick question on liquidity. So the $300 million liquidity that you mentioned is sitting outside of Ukraine. Does that include the DFI loan that you have, which will be utilized for the 2024 maturities? Or that is separate from what is to be utilized for this repayment. And if you can just again clarify that number once again because I think there were 2 or 3 numbers that were floating around. That's it. Thank you.

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Yes. Yes. No. This our [indiscernible] in Ukraine and our liquidity does not consist from the DFI -- because this line in near future in a few days. Yes.

U
Unknown Analyst

As of today, you have like $316 million sitting outside of Ukraine.

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Without this. Yes. Without this. And especially, I told that outside in Ukraine, today we have only $120 million. [indiscernible] maybe the lowest level is the low level of our liquidity during the last 3 years. Yes, because I explained why. No, it did not include $180 million from DFI.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. So going forward, I mean, depending on the NBU decision, I mean, you would still be able to use this FX to service your coupon on the future other bonds like 2026, 2029 and come say 2026 maturities, they should be available.

So any plans for buying back any of these 2026 maturities once you are sorted with the '24? Is that something you plan to do?

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Yes, you complete your right, maybe I would not tell you, but we have no real program of current regulation of NBO. Yes, to provide fairly for our bond. Yes. Yes, now we see this problem because you remember that, yes, we cannot pay interest rate. We cannot pay yes -- we cannot pay from Ukraine into coupon, this is a problem. We will have some discussions with National Bank about -- called the changes or [indiscernible] but in a way, it is a real problem. The potential, there's a problem however [indiscernible].

U
Unknown Analyst

But given that you already have cash outside of U.K., so you can use that to service the coupon on the upcoming maturity, right?

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Yes. But our [indiscernible] outside in Ukraine, very low level. I told you now we have only $120 million. Yes. But in near future need to repay our bonds, we repeated [indiscernible] from DFI but the level of [indiscernible] low.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. So as of now, it has come down to $120 million. Right? Cash outside of Ukraine.

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

No. Yes, exactly. But after the repayments given our cash outside in Ukraine will be around $60 million.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. We have a question from Natalia from Dragon Capital.

N
Natalia Shpygotska
analyst

If I may, I would like to please clarify a couple of numbers. If I understood correctly, the company current cash is $216 million, including $120 million outside of Ukraine. Is it correct?

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Yes, it's correct.

N
Natalia Shpygotska
analyst

Thank you. And you also mentioned this year's financial result of $400 million. Can you please confirm if it's EBITDA, excluding IFRS 16 for this year?

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Yes. Yes, you're right. But it's approximately and very difficult to predict. [indiscernible].

N
Natalia Shpygotska
analyst

Perfect. So just a small clarification. So company does plan to repay its 2024 notes like next week with the EBIT -- the remaining DFI financing.

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Yes, Correct.

N
Natalia Shpygotska
analyst

Perfect. And just more operational question, please. Our [indiscernible] company supports, it appears that the poultry exports in Q4 has declined by [indiscernible] 12% -- I'm sorry, 15% quarter-on-quarter. Can you please elaborate a little bit on the poultry export trends during the last quarter last year and probably some early estimates from first quarter this year?

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Yes, total because last year on as we exported, [ I will explain ]. At the beginning of 2023, we store a big stock in chicken meat. And that is why, yes, our exports 2024, it will be slightly lower by approximately by [indiscernible] compared to the 2022 because in 2023, we exported not just meat which we produce in 2023 and meat, which we had in our stock by the -- at the beginning of 2023.

N
Natalia Shpygotska
analyst

And should we expect some return from that level in Q1 of 2024? Or level on last quarter [indiscernible] be like the best guidance for most recent quarter? So improve -- maybe just -- no, it is improving 5%, 7% lower than 2023.

Operator

Our next question comes from Dmitry Ivanov from Jefferies.

D
Dmitry Ivanov
analyst

Hello, can you see hear me?

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Yes.[indiscernible]

D
Dmitry Ivanov
analyst

I think again, like on the cash position number, right? So basically, cash went down by around $130 million from the end of the previous year, right? And could you kind of maybe provide a key items that contributed to the decrease in cash position? Was it like due to the working capital increase or CapEx, et cetera. So any kind of breakdown would be helpful for us to understand the decrease in cash position.

Like -- on the second question, I think like you already answered it, but I would like to double check like, let's say, providers that you utilize this facility with DFIs, what would be the expected repayment schedule, including the DFI and other loans because you also have other loans or what like I could say, expected principal payments in the next 12 months?

And I would [indiscernible] just to confirm is that like these payments under the DFI facilities are not subject to NBU restrictions. So basically, you can use onshore cash [indiscernible] and amortize its principle facilities. So the second question is around -- a second question around expected amortization and the DFI repayment.

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

[indiscernible] from the last question, you are completely right. Regarding DFI securities, we can say [indiscernible] repay loan. [indiscernible]. Regarding the question of why our liquidity position during the 4 months, yes, yes, you are completely right. one of the reasons we are with the right investment in working cap because we're doing campaign, [indiscernible] we have investment in working capital regarding [indiscernible].

The second rate will we repay coupons. [indiscernible], and we decrease -- we repay our short-term credit but not significantly. And provide -- and the biggest part of this -- we -- and we had in general standard [indiscernible] non-standard. Yes. the reason why our provisions decreased by $100 million.

D
Dmitry Ivanov
analyst

Understood. And just to clarify, because you mentioned like the latest offshore cash position is $120 million and is expected to go down to $60 million after [indiscernible] '24. So just to make sure what will be the amount of DFI facilities utilized after -- so I think it will be below $400 million, right? So it won't be like $400 million.

U
Unknown Executive

[indiscernible] I explained in my explanation was about our total liquidity position, about $400 million because -- at the beginning of the year, it was $400 million, now around $300 million. Regarding our why we decreased our please briefly repeat your question about I understand your question about our disposition our side, is it yes?

D
Dmitry Ivanov
analyst

Just amount of the facility, which will be utilized after you complete '24. So because you will use like $60 million of your own cash position [indiscernible].

U
Unknown Executive

[indiscernible] because you remember that, yes, you remember that we attracted the facility also for amount of our bonds and we will use our cash position. Yes, can are complete right.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. We have a follow-up question from Stella at Barclays.

S
Stella Cridge
analyst

And I wanted to ask, after you addressed the upcoming bonds, what are you thinking around your options for the next maturities later on? Do you think it might be possible to attract more DFI funding? Or do you think you would be looking towards the market to come up with some sort of extension. Just wanted to hear what you are thinking [indiscernible].

U
Unknown Executive

Okay. Thank you for your question. Yes, yes, to be honest with you. Yes, I can some [indiscernible] what I will do it is 2026. But unfortunately, I don't have now a career plan for this one. Yes, for this. I understand it is my biggest [indiscernible] today, but unfortunately until today, no, we don't have [indiscernible].

Operator

Okay. Thank you. I'm not seeing any more questions. So perhaps I can hand back to Anastasia and Viktoria for closing remarks.

Sorry, we have one more question. We have a question from Jana at BCB Securities.

U
Unknown Analyst

Just 2 quick clarifications. Connection is not great. So I'm just double checking. Decline in sales, this is because you last year sold additional stock that was accumulated during -- from 2020 to be that correct?

U
Unknown Executive

[indiscernible]

U
Unknown Analyst

No. We're just seeing that there is a decline in sales year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. So that from a [indiscernible] ...

U
Unknown Executive

You asked us about extra sales?, Yes? Year-to-year.

U
Unknown Analyst

[indiscernible] extra sales to third parties like number?

U
Unknown Executive

No, no. But no decline if you compare the sales volume in 2023. we sold by [ 23,000 ] more than 2023. My explanation was about the sales volume of 2024. Yes, for export we will fold less than 400,000 tonnes. Because last year, we sold approximately [ 25,000 ] from the stock, which will be at the beginning of the year.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. So you have to do with additional volumes from the stock from that 2023

U
Unknown Executive

It was less. Yes. Yes. Yes.

U
Unknown Analyst

And the second question, on the DFI facility, is it fully utilized? Or you have something left once this repayment goes through from the '24 bond?

U
Unknown Executive

Yet not for [indiscernible] today. But in -- yes, in a few days, we will generate additional $160 million. Yes.

U
Unknown Analyst

You have $160 million remaining from the [indiscernible]

U
Unknown Executive

Yes. Yes. Yes. Okay.

U
Unknown Analyst

And would you be able to apply to similar payments of '26? Or do they have specific uses for specific CapEx or it's not determined yet?

U
Unknown Executive

No. No. No. Yes, this amount we will use for repayment in 2024. Regarding [indiscernible] .

U
Unknown Analyst

[indiscernible], the DFI facility will be fully utilized?

U
Unknown Executive

Yes, you conclude for us.

Operator

Okay. Great. Thank you. So I think that concludes the Q&A. So yes, I'll hand back over to Anastasia and Viktoria for closing remarks. Thank you.

A
Anastasiya Sobotyuk
executive

Thank you very much, Jim. Thank you very much, everybody, for the meeting and discussions. And of course, in case you have further questions, you know my address, you can give me a call. We'll be in touch, and have a nice day.

V
Viktoria Kapelyushnaya
executive

Yes. Thank you. Thank you, Bye.

Operator

That concludes the call for today. Thank you, and have a nice day.