NK Lukoil PAO
LSE:LKOH
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one LKOH stock under the Base Case scenario is 82.38 USD. Compared to the current market price of 55.7127 USD, NK Lukoil PAO is Undervalued by 32%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
NK Lukoil PAO
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Fundamental Analysis
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NK Lukoil PAO, one of Russia’s largest oil companies, has established itself as a formidable player in the global energy sector since its inception in 1991. With a diversified portfolio that includes exploration, production, refining, and marketing of oil, natural gas, and refined products, Lukoil stands out for its ability to manage extensive operations across various geographical regions, including the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Europe, and the Middle East. Lukoil’s strength lies in its robust reserve base, significant technological expertise, and commitment to sustainable practices, positioning it favorably against global competitors. Investors are particularly drawn to Luk...
NK Lukoil PAO, one of Russia’s largest oil companies, has established itself as a formidable player in the global energy sector since its inception in 1991. With a diversified portfolio that includes exploration, production, refining, and marketing of oil, natural gas, and refined products, Lukoil stands out for its ability to manage extensive operations across various geographical regions, including the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Europe, and the Middle East. Lukoil’s strength lies in its robust reserve base, significant technological expertise, and commitment to sustainable practices, positioning it favorably against global competitors. Investors are particularly drawn to Lukoil's value-oriented approach, reflected in consistent dividend payments and a disciplined capital allocation strategy focused on long-term growth.
However, the company operates in a complex geopolitical landscape, influenced by fluctuating oil prices, regulatory changes, and international sanctions, all of which can impact its performance. Lukoil has taken proactive steps to mitigate risks through strategic partnerships and investments in innovative technologies that enhance efficiency and environmental responsibility. For potential investors, understanding Lukoil’s resilience amid external pressures, along with its ongoing initiatives to diversify into renewable energy and reduce carbon emissions, signals a forward-looking approach that aligns with global energy transition trends. As the world navigates the challenges of energy demands and sustainability, Lukoil’s commitment to innovation and adaptability makes it a compelling company to consider for investment.
NK Lukoil PAO, commonly known as Lukoil, is one of the largest oil companies in Russia and operates in various segments within the oil and gas industry. The core business segments of Lukoil can be categorized as follows:
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Exploration and Production:
- This segment involves the exploration and extraction of crude oil and natural gas. Lukoil has extensive operations in Russia as well as international projects. The company is involved in geological exploration, drilling, and production activities, focusing on maintaining and increasing its reserves.
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Refining and Marketing:
- Lukoil operates refineries to process crude oil into various petroleum products. This segment includes the production of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined products. Additionally, Lukoil markets these products through a network of service stations and distribution channels both in Russia and abroad.
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Petrochemicals:
- In this segment, Lukoil produces petrochemical products derived from the refining process. This includes products like plastics, fertilizers, and other chemical intermediates. The petrochemical segment is crucial for diversifying the company’s product offerings and reducing dependency on crude oil sales.
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Retail:
- Lukoil operates a large network of retail outlets for its fuel and convenience products. This segment is vital for direct consumer engagement and further boosts the brand's visibility and market presence.
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Power Generation:
- Lukoil is involved in the generation of electricity and heat. This segment is less prominent than the others but contributes to the overall energy production landscape, often meeting the energy needs of its facilities and regional demands.
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Investment in Renewable Energy:
- While primarily an oil and gas company, Lukoil has started exploring renewable energy opportunities as part of its long-term strategy to adapt to global energy trends and environmental considerations.
These segments collectively contribute to Lukoil's position as a major player in the global oil and gas market. The company focuses on enhancing efficiency, maintaining environmental standards, and expanding its presence both domestically and internationally.
NK Lukoil PAO, one of Russia's largest oil companies, has several competitive advantages over its rivals, which can be outlined as follows:
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Scale and Efficiency: Lukoil operates on a large scale, which allows it to benefit from economies of scale. Its size enables cost efficiencies in exploration, production, refining, and distribution that smaller competitors cannot match.
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Diverse Portfolio: Lukoil’s operations span the entire value chain of oil production, including exploration, production, refining, marketing, and distribution. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with fluctuations in oil prices and production costs.
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Strong Reserve Base: Lukoil boasts a significant reserve base, which provides a reliable source of future production and cash flow. Its reserves include both traditional oil fields and more challenging locations, offering a mix of stability and growth potential.
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Geographical Presence: With operations in multiple countries, Lukoil has a well-established geopolitical footprint. This diversification reduces dependency on any single market and allows the company to leverage opportunities in various regions.
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Technical Expertise: Lukoil has invested heavily in technology and innovation, enhancing its ability to operate in challenging environments and improve extraction efficiency. This technical edge contributes to lower production costs and higher yields.
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Brand Recognition and Market Presence: As one of the largest oil companies in Russia, Lukoil has strong brand recognition both domestically and internationally, fostering customer loyalty and trust.
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Strategic Partnerships and Joint Ventures: Lukoil has established partnerships and joint ventures with several global oil firms, providing access to new technologies, markets, and operational expertise.
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Vertical Integration: The company’s vertical integration allows it to control costs and streamline operations. By managing its supply chain from extraction to distribution, Lukoil can respond more rapidly to market changes.
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Robust Financial Stability: Lukoil has a strong financial position, characterized by low debt levels compared to some of its peers. This stability allows for greater flexibility in capital expenditures and investment opportunities.
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Commitment to ESG Practices: Lukoil is increasingly focusing on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives, which can enhance its reputation and align with global trends towards sustainability.
These competitive advantages help NK Lukoil PAO maintain its position in the highly competitive global oil market and set it apart from its rivals.
NK Lukoil PAO, like many companies in the oil and gas sector, faces a variety of risks and challenges that could impact its operations and profitability in the near future. Here are some key areas of concern:
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Geopolitical Risks: As a major player in the Russian oil industry, Lukoil is subject to geopolitical tensions that can affect its operations, especially in terms of international sanctions, trade relationships, and regional stability.
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Regulatory Environment: Increased regulation around environmental standards and emissions can lead to higher compliance costs. The company must navigate changing laws, particularly in Europe and other regions where climate change initiatives are prioritizing greener energy.
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Market Volatility: Oil prices are volatile, influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, OPEC policies, and economic factors. Sudden drops in oil prices can severely impact revenue and profitability.
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Transition to Renewable Energy: The global shift towards renewable energy and away from fossil fuels poses a challenge to traditional oil and gas companies. Lukoil must adapt its business model to incorporate sustainable practices and potentially diversify its energy portfolio.
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Operational Risks: Lukoil's operations expose it to a range of operational risks including equipment failure, safety incidents, and the challenges of operating in harsh environments. These risks can lead to increased costs and potential liabilities.
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Investment in Technology: To remain competitive, Lukoil needs to invest in technology and innovation. This includes enhancing efficiency in exploration and production but can also be a financial burden if not managed effectively.
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Public Perception and Brand Image: As public awareness of climate change rises, companies in the fossil fuel sector, including Lukoil, may face reputational risks, affecting demand for their products and leading to greater scrutiny from investors and consumers.
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Currency Fluctuations: As a Russian company, Lukoil's revenues may be affected by fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly with the Russian ruble’s stability against other currencies such as the US dollar and euro.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chains can be affected by various factors, including pandemics, political unrest, or trade disputes, leading to disruptions in the supply of key materials and labor.
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Talent Acquisition and Retention: As the industry evolves, attracting and retaining skilled labor becomes essential. This is especially true as younger generations may be less inclined to work in the fossil fuel sector due to environmental concerns.
Navigating these risks will require strategic foresight, agile management, and possibly a shift towards more sustainable practices to ensure long-term growth and resilience.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
NK Lukoil PAO
Balance Sheet Decomposition
NK Lukoil PAO
Current Assets | 3T |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 1.3T |
Receivables | 898B |
Other Current Assets | 842.2B |
Non-Current Assets | 5.6T |
Long-Term Investments | 689.3B |
PP&E | 4.7T |
Intangibles | 77.4B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 116.2B |
Current Liabilities | 1.4T |
Accounts Payable | 517.6B |
Accrued Liabilities | 355.8B |
Short-Term Debt | 13.4B |
Other Current Liabilities | 555B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 774.4B |
Long-Term Debt | 313.9B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 460.5B |
Earnings Waterfall
NK Lukoil PAO
Revenue
|
7.9T
RUB
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-2.9T
RUB
|
Gross Profit
|
5.1T
RUB
|
Operating Expenses
|
-3.6T
RUB
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Operating Income
|
1.4T
RUB
|
Other Expenses
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-273B
RUB
|
Net Income
|
1.2T
RUB
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
NK Lukoil PAO
RUB | |
Free Cash Flow | RUB |
LKOH Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
NK Lukoil PAO's profitability score is 59/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
NK Lukoil PAO's profitability score is 59/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
LKOH Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
NK Lukoil PAO's solvency score is 72/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
NK Lukoil PAO's solvency score is 72/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
LKOH Price Targets Summary
NK Lukoil PAO
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for LKOH is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Oil Co. LUKOIL PJSC engages in the exploration, production, refining, marketing and distribution of oil. The company is headquartered in Moscow, Moscow. The primary activities of LUKOIL and its subsidiaries are oil exploration, production, refining, marketing and distribution. Its segments include Exploration and Production; Refining, Marketing and Distribution, and Corporate and other. The Exploration and Production segment includes its exploration, development and production operations related to crude oil and gas. These activities are located within Russia, with additional activities in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, the Middle East, Northern and Western Africa, Norway, Romania and Mexico. The Refining, Marketing and Distribution segment includes refining, petrochemical and transport operations, marketing and trading of crude oil, natural gas and refined products, generation, transportation and sales of electricity, heat and related services. The Corporate and other segment includes operations related to finance activities, production of diamonds and certain other activities.
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The intrinsic value of one LKOH stock under the Base Case scenario is 82.38 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 55.7127 USD, NK Lukoil PAO is Undervalued by 32%.