Ithaca Energy PLC

LSE:ITH

Earnings Call Analysis

Ithaca Energy Confirms Strong Production and Dividend Growth Prospects

Ithaca Energy announced robust progress with third-quarter production averaging 91,000 barrels per day, peaking at over 120,000 in Q4. The company aims for 2024 pro forma production between 100,000 and 110,000 barrels daily, supported by continued operational efficiencies. A $200 million special dividend adds to the $100 million already declared, totaling $300 million against a $500 million target for 2024. Following the successful Eni asset integration, long-term financial flexibility has improved with a $2.25 billion refinancing and upgraded credit ratings. With strong cash flow and strategic investments in high-quality assets, Ithaca is well-positioned for sustainable growth.

Strong Financial Performance Amidst Transition

Ithaca Energy has announced a particularly robust performance in their Q3 2024 results, reflecting a strategic transition post the business combination with Eni, which became effective economically from July 1. The company showcased an operational average production of 91,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) post-Eni inclusion, with an expectation to peak above 120,000 boepd in Q4. This integration has reinforced Ithaca's operational scale, providing a solid foundation for future growth.

Profitability and Cash Flow Generation

In terms of profitability, Ithaca reported strong cash from operations amounting to $793 million post-tax in Q3, attributing its financial health to an effective hedging strategy. The company reported an EBITDAX of $759 million and a net income of $135 million, illustrating an effective management of costs, which have remained remarkably stable despite inflationary pressures and FX headwinds. Their operational costs were slightly elevated year-on-year but effectively managed at $415 million for Q3 2024 compared to $409 million in 2023.

Strategic Focus on Dividends and Shareholder Returns

A significant highlight of the earnings call was the announcement of a $200 million special dividend, bringing total dividends declared for 2024 to $300 million, with a firm target of reaching $500 million. This commitment reflects the company's ongoing strategy to return cash to shareholders, which aligns with their policy of distributing 30% of post-tax cash flow. The solid cash flow generation supports this commitment, indicating Ithaca's dedication to rewarding shareholders while maintaining operational stability.

Guidance Reaffirmed and Future Growth Prospects

For full-year 2024, Ithaca reaffirmed its production guidance range of 76,000 to 81,000 boepd, with net operating expenses (OpEx) expected between $650 million and $730 million. Moreover, combined capital expenditures (CapEx) for net producing assets are projected to range from $410 million to $480 million. This guidance underscores Ithaca's confidence in achieving its operational targets and its growth strategy post-refinancing, which totaled $2.25 billion, extending maturities and reducing the cost of capital.

Focus on Operational Efficiency and Expansion

Ithaca's management is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency across its 37 producing assets while also aiming for organic growth through the development of significant projects such as Rosebank and Talbot. With Rosebank progressing towards a planned first oil in 2026-2027, and a successful drilling campaign at Captain, Ithaca has positioned itself for sustained growth within the North Sea region. The company is also actively pursuing international opportunities to diversify its portfolio and mitigate risks associated with domestic fiscal changes.

Commitment to Sustainability Through Decarbonization

Ithaca is not only focused on growth and profitability but also on sustainability. The company is prioritizing decarbonization across its operational assets, with significant plans for the electrification of Captain. Through investment in emissions-reduction projects and partnerships with regulatory bodies, Ithaca demonstrates its commitment to aligning with long-term environmental goals, which is becoming increasingly important for investors looking for sustainable investment opportunities.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining the Ithaca Energy Q3 2024 Results Analyst and Investors Webcast. My name is Marie, and I will be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand over to your host, Yaniv Friedman, Executive Chairman, to begin. Please go ahead.

[Yaniv Friedman, executive]

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Q3 2024 results presentation. My name is Yaniv Friedman, and I'm the Executive Chairman of Ithaca Energy. And if you'll flip to Slide 2, you can see my colleagues who is going to join me on this call, Luciano Vasques, our Chief Executive Officer; and Iain Lewis, our Chief Financial Officer.

This is an agenda for today. So I'll run through Q3 highlights, move on and Luciano will lead that on strategic and operational highlights, followed by a financial overview from Iain. And I'll close with some closing remarks, and we'll open it up for questions and answers.

So thanks again for joining. And if you would please flip to Slide 5. Just in terms of highlights, we're delivering on our strategic objectives, reaffirming our guidance and obviously, our 2024 dividend target, as I'm sure you've seen. We are above 100,000 barrels per day of estimated 2024 pro forma production, and we've had peak production of over 120,000 barrels per day oil equivalent in Q4.

On kind of our strategic investment, we have second half 2024 pro forma capital investment of over $300 million. And we've completed 1 week into our completion of the Eni business combination, a $2.25 billion of refinancing of our 2026 notes and our reserve-based lending facility, that was also backed by an upgrade of our credit rating by all 3 agencies.

We paid $100 million of dividend in September, supported by our policy of 30% of post-tax cash flow. And we've announced today a $200 million special dividend, supporting our $500 million 2024 dividend target.

In a bit more detail, and obviously, we'll run through this in more detail through the presentation, we are realizing the benefits of the Eni business combination, increased scale of operations and production. As mentioned, we've peaked Q4 at above 120,000 barrels per day of production with Q3 combined production of 91,000 barrels per day post the effective date, so post Eni assets coming in. And all of this supports our 2024 pro forma production estimates in the range of 100,000 to 110,000 barrels per day.

We have a diversified portfolio with near-term value creation opportunities. As an example, first oil from Talbot, which is an ex-Eni asset, is anticipated before year-end, and that would add further production flexibility with Ithaca. Also, drilling of Jocelyn South exploration wells offer additional potential of production. And obviously, we have our development assets that we'll talk about later.

As mentioned, $2.25 billion refinancing of both our bonds and our reserve-based lending facilities. We've extended redemptions now to 2029 with lower cost of borrowing that reflects the improved credit rating that we have post completion of the business combination. So, stronger liquidity and stronger balance sheet.

Robust cash flow generation. We're realizing also synergies from our combination. We have a material gas hedge book post completion, locking attractive hedges, and Iain will talk about it later also even into 2026. And all of this creates a platform for growth. And we're seeing ourselves as growth players, and we can talk later about our strategy going forward alongside sustainable dividends.

So today's announcement of $200 million special dividend takes the total 2024 dividend declared to $300 million, and that puts us in place and in line with our target of $500 million of distributions in [ 2024 ]. And we'll expand on all of this later.

Luciano, maybe you'll take it from here.

[Luciano Vasques, executive]

Yes. Thanks, Yaniv, and good morning, everybody. Again, my name is Luciano Vasques, new CEO of Ithaca Energy. Pleased to be here. So we'll turn to our performance from an operational industrial standpoint for the year.

First thing I would like to say, in 2024, we had no Tier 1 or Tier 2 safety incidents, which is absolutely good. And on this chart, as you can see from the left, following the business combination, we are on the right pattern towards our target. It's a growth trajectory that we have identified already before the business combination, which is going on. And of course, we are in line to achieve our 2024 pro forma estimated production of above 100,000 barrels per day.

Now we have a substantial portfolio, number of assets, 37 producing assets, high-quality new additions such as Cygnus and Seagull, and increased participating interest in J Area and Elgin-Franklin, all pretty good quality assets to add to our portfolio, which, of course, are giving us a good potential for sustained production and growth.

Pleased to report that all the production issues that we've experienced during the year are now materially behind us. And so we have already returned to full production in Q4, which we are observing in these weeks. And in Q3, we've experienced a combined average production of 91,000 barrels equivalent per day.

[Technical Difficulty]

[Operator]

Luciano? We have lost connection to the speakers. Please stand by while I attempt to reconnect them.

[Yaniv Friedman, executive]

Hi, Iain and Luciano. So you could continue from Slide 10, please.

[Luciano Vasques, executive]

Okay. Good. So you heard me through Slide 9, right?

[Yaniv Friedman, executive]

Yes, I spoke through Slides 8 and 9. So you could continue from Slide 10.

[Luciano Vasques, executive]

All right. That's good. And well, then I was just talking about -- I want to talk about our investment opportunities. Of course, the Rosebank development, which continues to progress in line with our plan actually towards the first production in 2026, '27, we have successfully completed the subsea structure installation this year ahead of schedule. So the project is progressing in line.

We note that the ongoing Rosebank judicial review is -- the process is there, and we do not expect, though, an outcome of that until 2025. We continue to work collaboratively very closely with Equinor as the operator, and we support them, and we continue to push with the development of the project.

Now moving on to Captain, our operated asset, very important field for Ithaca Energy. There has been a strong focus on uptime performance here for the asset following the reported unplanned production trips, which occurred there are now at the back. So we're beyond that, and we are strong now in increased production rates in Q3 and which we've seen a constant improvement of that.

The asset, of course, will still continue to receive high investment activity, which is in support of the medium-term production over and above the EOR II project that was delivered in the first half of the year. And now we've commenced the 13th platform drilling campaign commenced in Q3 this year, which consists of a 7-well program and which will take us busy for a 2-year period.

We've also added a support flotel to the scheme to support the very many activities which are ongoing. The contract was signed in the quarter. The flotel will support the optimization projects, support the backlog reduction that we have, improve the general condition of the asset, and it's going to be with us for a while, and it's going to be able to host 150 people, which gives you the idea of the size of the activities that are going on.

So with that, I hand it over to Iain for the financial elements.

[Iain Lewis, executive]

Thanks, Luciano. Good morning, all. Slide 11, please. So a number of slides here on the financial strength of the company, and that's following the business combination completion on the 3rd of October. We followed through with a full refinancing of the company, and there's been worked through the credit rating agencies in the months prior. And of course, the reserve-based lending facility, which was extended and amended, was in the works through the past several months. So a lot of activity during Q3.

The end result is an improved credit rating across all of the key providers with Moody's taking us to B+ and S&P and Fitch to BB-. So the upgrade supporting the refinancing of $2.25 billion that was achieved in mid-October, so that's a $1.5 billion reserve-based lending facility and a $750 million bond through 2029 maturity.

One of the key features that we included in the revised reserve-based lending facility was an accordion facility of over $700 million that enables us to extend and uplift that RBL with the addition of new assets with already agreed terms. And for both the RBL and the notes, we had capacity beyond that, which we took, showing strong demand for the business of Ithaca in the debt markets. So a very pleasing result.

We closed the quarter with low leverage of 0.49x and significant liquidity of essentially $1 billion at the end of Q3. So in terms of our ambitions to grow and to develop the business, we have, through the refinancing post deal close, increased the financial flexibility of the company.

So moving to Slide 12, just a couple of more graphical details of the refinancing. You can see the liquidity at the end of Q3 on a stand-alone Ithaca basis on the left-hand side of the graph there with $991 million of liquidity, $1.5 billion of facilities with $1 billion drawn and $540 million undrawn and cash of $451 million. On a pro forma basis, just uplifting for the revised facilities on the RBL, a pro forma 30th September position is shown next to that, showing an uplift of over $350 million in available liquidity.

So this is extending maturities. It's reducing the cost of capital and it's building in material flexibility through our portfolio of debt products, enabling us to meet our ambitions to develop the business.

Moving on to Slide 13 and something of the trajectory historically here in terms of leverage. And you can see the reduction in net debt positions from June '22 down through to the positive cash position through September. And you can see that the low leverage close out at the end of September '24 leaves us in a significant capacity position as we move into the opportunities beyond.

Slide 14, please. And this is something that we've been working on materially through Q3 '24 and into Q4 '24, the protection of the business through the hedge book. Now what we have been doing historically, as those that follow the stock will know, is materially building hedge positions when pricing is higher. And we were able to do this with our gas hedge book in the past 5, 6 weeks. So we did some deal contingent hedges before the close of the deal. But this business combination, of course, brought assets that were essentially 70% gas production. So materially increased our gas position in terms of production, and we're keen to hedge that forward. And we were able to do that materially after the close of the quarter.

So you can see the position we've built through these past few weeks on the hedge book with swap pricing that is essentially in the high 90s area on average for the next 5 or 6 quarters and with floors and collars, both narrow collars and then wide collars, with pricing floors in the kind of 80p region and ceiling that take us up at some point above 140p. So strong hedge book on gas, which has augmented our hedge position through 2025. We're now around 40% hedged for the entire portfolio through 2025 and looking to add to that opportunistically with the market supporting.

Slide 15 is just a recap of our capital allocation framework. And as Yaniv mentioned at the start of the call, really this upskilled business with the addition of the new assets is all about executing on our strategy to invest, protect, return and evolve the business. We are able to do that given the scale and capacity of the business, and we are announcing today a special dividend of $200 million, which is part of that journey.

So the investment, as you can see on the left-hand side, to sustain the business over $300 million in the second half of the year on a pro forma basis, protection of the balance sheet through the hedge book that we've just referenced and keeping leverage at a level, returning in a consistent basis to shareholders and the 30% post-tax cash from operations commitment in 2024, we will meet and then evolving the business through growth, M&A and additional distributions. And the $200 million announced today of a special dividend is part of the special distribution, additional distributions to meet that part of the capital allocation framework.

So a strong history of dividend delivery, $400 million delivered in 2023, which was an ambition that we laid down at IPO and met, and we've laid out our targets for 2024 and 2025 of $500 million and the dividend announced today is strong confirmation of our plans to meet those targets.

Moving on to Slide 17 and a summary of something of the Q3 activity. Q3, of course, relatively unusual because this is stand-alone Ithaca numbers before the deal, but the deal is economically effective from 1st July. As a reminder for everyone, economic effectively on 1st July, but closed out on the 3rd of October. So the benefit of the operations financially flows to Ithaca from 1st July, but the published numbers today are just stand-alone Q3 Ithaca numbers.

All these numbers are very much in line with what we had released previously in the year and the guidance ranges for the full year 2024, with production of 52,500 barrels a day, reflecting the outages that were referenced previously. Operating costs, because of lower production, up in the high 20s, where for our long-term business, we were in the low 20s.

However, still strong cash from operations year-to-date Q3, you can see the $793 million post-tax cash from ops, a strong cash delivery in the business supported by our hedging policy. EBITDAX of $759 million, net income of $135 million and closing adjusted net debt of $543 million, a leverage ratio of 0.49, and you can see nearly $1 billion of liquidity on the stand-alone business before refinancing.

Moving on to Slide 18, a bit more detail on the EBITDAX, which we always publish. I would say there's a couple of things to point out here. One is the continued benefit from the hedge position, $29 million of hedge gains in Q3 itself, $127 million for the full year to date. So that's $9 a barrel of extra value coming through the hedge book so that we close out in terms of production value of $85 a barrel for the year-to-date Q3 '24.

Costs also kept essentially flat year-on-year. So you can see the $409 million for Q3 year-to-date 2023 compared with $415 million Q3 year-to-date 2024. Strong cost control and management despite FX headwinds. FX materially higher in '24 than '23 with GBP a bit stronger until the last few weeks and obviously, inflationary pressures throughout the cost base, but a good cost result and good outturn in Q3 in line with guidance.

Speaking of guidance, we move to Slide 19. Not a huge amount to say here because we're essentially reconfirming and reaffirming all of the guidance ranges that were previously announced. Now just for a reminder, these are pro forma guidance ranges based on full year of Ithaca stand-alone and 6 months of the Eni asset inclusion, so from 1st July on a pro forma basis, which really gives the shape of the business for the year.

76,000 to 81,000 production range, net OpEx of $650 million to $730 million, combined net producing asset CapEx of $410 million to $480 million. Rosebank CapEx, $170 million to $195 million. We're now expecting to fall at the top end of that range now Rosebank progressing well in execution.

Combined cash tax payments will be lower now compared with the guidance of $390 million to $410 million, and that's really a technical lowering. We have concluded the business combination on an economic effective date of 1 July that assumed working capital positions at the time of the deal announcement and the 38.5% share issuance. Adjustments to that will be settled in cash, and there was a lower tax cash liability that came across in 1 July compared with which is anticipated. So the cash payments will be less to the tax line, but will be part of the settlement finally in cash of any adjustment to working capital in the deal.

And finally, dividends, which is really the big story of the day. In terms of the special dividend announcement, we're now at $300 million for 2024 with a target of $500 million ahead of us and pushing to that through the close of the year and out into the results, which we expect to bring to the market in March.

Okay. Handing back to Yaniv now for closing remarks.

[Yaniv Friedman, executive]

Thank you, Iain. As you said, it's a unique quarter in the sense that we're showing Ithaca stand-alone, but this is obviously with the contribution of Eni economically as of July 1. So we're, as mentioned, completed October 3 with really immediate realization of benefits. I think that reflects really well in the refinancing -- successful refinancing that was oversubscribed that's providing us with material financial firepower to support our growth aspirations and M&A ambitions.

Q4 production peaking 120,000 barrels a day over that and the operational issues that were experienced in mostly in our nonoperated JV assets have now been resolved and helping us to reaffirm target, as Iain said. Rosebank progressing on plan towards 2026, 2027 first oil; material project milestone delivered in 2024 with the subsea work that was completed also ahead of time.

And as Iain said, last but not least, our $200 million special dividend announced today that adds to the $100 million that was already paid in September and reaffirming our dividend target of $500 million for 2024.

So with that, we welcome your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from Werner Riding of Peel Hunt.

[Werner Riding, analyst]

Yes. You indicated on the call that peak production rate of 120,000 boes a day was recently achieved, which for me was an upside surprise. So could you maybe elaborate on that number, please, and talk about how you feel about its sustainability and how that number evolves into next year?

[Iain Lewis, executive]

Yes. Maybe make the first comment on that and then the guys can jump in. Yes, we've always said, I think, Werner, that over 100,000 barrels a day is our kind of stable base. And of course, that will always mean we'll get peak rates well above that. But yes, I think it's shown the capacity of the business to 120,000. And clearly, shutdowns and interventions, et cetera, will take us below that on averages and so on. But over 100,000 was always the aim and 120,000 is a pleasing peak out.

[Luciano Vasques, executive]

Yes. I mean I can build on Yaniv and sorry, not to have been able to expand on that because we had a technical glitch during the presentation. But we are very confident about it. I mean our assets are well performing. Of course, the addition from the business combination brings into the equation a number of high-performing and high-quality assets.

Surely, during summer, there were turnaround maintenance that took over some of the uptime, plus a few issues that happened at the same time, but they were all addressed either by us or by the other operators. So now they're materially behind us. And so we are seeing the numbers that we can perform on a good day. And of course, this can be even higher considering the additional elements in our plans like the Jocelyn -- sorry, the Talbot project, which is coming in.

[Werner Riding, analyst]

Okay. Are there any -- just talk -- just thinking about next year a little bit, are there any planned material extended shutdowns across the portfolio? And if you know them, could you let me know when they are and for how long?

[Luciano Vasques, executive]

Yes, sure. Of course, I mean, out of 37 assets, you always have a significant amount of turnaround maintenance in the year. And so we have -- during August, you will see a material reduction of production just because we have turnaround maintenance going on, on Captain. But I mean, they're all typically focused, of course, in the summer region -- in the summer period.

It is an average year in that respect. But of course, given the amplitude of our portfolio, we will always have a few of those assets, which will have to experience some turnaround maintenance. So we have them throughout the year with a focus during the summer. But I mean, nothing major...

[Yaniv Friedman, executive]

Yes. Sorry for interrupting, Luciano. Maybe just to add, all this obviously will be reflected and already implemented in the overall guidance for the year. So when this comes out, this will be part of projection.

[Luciano Vasques, executive]

Absolutely. Yes.

[Operator]

We have a question from Sasikanth Chilukuru of Morgan Stanley.

[Sasikanth Chilukuru, analyst]

I had 2, please. The first was on the relative importance you place on your 3 strategic pillars, BUILD, BUY and BOOST. I was particularly interested in understanding your approach on the first 2 on growing organically versus inorganically in the current fiscal regime. There seems to be many assets in the market currently. I was just wondering if they would attract Ithaca's attention.

The second was on the geographical focus. You stated -- you have a stated ambition of being the strength of the North Sea. Does that imply Ithaca will continue to be focused only on offshore U.K.? Or is [indiscernible] possible company diversifying in other regions as well?

[Yaniv Friedman, executive]

Thank you for that question. I think I'll combine the answer because in a way, they're very similar. So as you mentioned, we have both organic and inorganic growth opportunities. We have a very diversified portfolio. We have our producing assets. We have assets in development, and we have assets predevelopment. So obviously, we have a lot of organic growth optionality, and that will give us a lot of flexibility also in deciding how we want to move forward and respond to different changes, be it macro or micro around us.

In terms of focus and growth, we're U.K. focused. We're UKCS producer. We have a team in Aberdeen. We're the largest resource owner today in the U.K. So we definitely see us continued investing in the U.K. Obviously, we're value driven. So we'll look at this through a value lens. We do see opportunities. We believe that we can be a lead consolidator in this market. We're preparing ourselves for that. We have the balance sheet to do that. But obviously, this will all be done through a value lens.

Alongside that, and I think in many ways, it serves 2 purposes, our international or aspirations to go internationally. One is kind of diluting the effect of potential U.K. fiscal changes. And the other one is we want to grow, we want to rerate. We're seeing ourselves on a path to investment grade, and that requires scale and diversification. So as part of that, we're definitely looking at opportunities internationally.

I've mentioned that before, we're not a major. We're not going to be operating in 50 countries, but we're going to choose -- pick and choose our international growth assets very carefully, those that play into the strength of our team and capabilities and also shareholders. So, I don't want to be geography specific, but I think that we're looking at stable basin, stable regimes to kind of grow and expand in.

[Operator]

We have a question from Mark Wilson of Jefferies.

[Mark Wilson, analyst]

I'd like to ask regarding the -- it looks like you've got quite an investment program going on at Captain. Obviously, a lot of that is drilling. But I know you've spoken to in the past, Iain, about decarbonization investments that you've been making at that field or planning to make at that field. Could I ask what sort of clarity you've got about around those and if they're applicable after the budget and if we should consider the current plans that Captain is having applicable investments along those lines?

[Iain Lewis, executive]

Yes. I'm happy to make a couple of comments on that, Mark. I guess the biggest potential project, obviously, in decarbonization and Captain is electrification project, which we continue to look at and complete FEED work through. There are a number of other projects that are smaller, of course, on the decarbonization pathway on Captain. There's export compressor work, there's dual fuel conversion work on the fire heaters and the FPSO and there's flare gas recovery project in full flow just now to seek to close out in 2026.

There are a number of Captain-specific decarb projects that are smaller but will make an impact. But electrification is the big one, and that's a material project that needs proper investment consideration, but it's certainly in focus as an option for us. But yes, I think there's a continued focus on incrementally making our emissions profile better. I know something which Yaniv has been very focused on his time in the U.K. with Eni. Anything else that you want to add?

[Luciano Vasques, executive]

Yes. Surely, this is -- as Iain said, there are the maintenance and the improvements on our decarbonization trajectory. And then there is a big ticket item, which is the electrification. We are in active dialogue with the regulator in terms of that project to frame it. And you know that this is one of the very many opportunities that are in the North Sea. It's very high in our agenda in terms of looking at it very actively. But of course, this has to be seen together in a joint way together with the length of the fiscal framework, particularly in view of what might happen beyond 2030 and the consultation that the government has asked to have for the success of the EPL. So whichever investment that we do on the electrification must have a merit in view of the lifetime of the facility.

I think that there is a way to combine all the elements of that. And as I said, I mean, there is a -- there has been an active dialogue in the past months and continues to be with both the government and the regulator in this space. So if there is an opportunity to make that happen reliably and sustainably economically, we will definitely come back in. At this moment, it's not funded in our long-term plan, but it is very present in the possibility of options that we have open to us.

[Mark Wilson, analyst]

Excellent. If I may follow up on, could you give us an idea of potential scenarios around the judicial review and timelines there, the scenarios on the impact of what that could come out with and timelines? And then to your other point regarding beyond [ 2023 ] clarity, what is your understanding of when we would likely get clarity on that from the government on a timeline basis?

[Yaniv Friedman, executive]

Yes. Maybe I'll take that. So I think we're, in principle, do not comment on judicial ongoing litigation and judicial proceedings. I think what we can say is that we believe that Rosebank is a project that would continue, obviously. We're on time, on budget, as mentioned. And we'll need to see how this judicial review could potentially affect us, but we don't see a scenario where this derails the project. Maybe some additional paperwork, but not something that will derail the project going forward.

In terms of timeline on post 2030, we can only say what we've heard. And I think -- and Iain, Luciano jump in. We've heard that this is a process that's going to kick off early in the year, and I hope we'll get some clarity through spring time.

[Mark Wilson, analyst]

That's great. And if I may...

[Iain Lewis, executive]

No, no problem, Mark. I was just going to say, I think the government has been clear at the previous government and this government that a long-term regime with a lower tax rate is required. And we continue to work constructively with them to seek to get to that place.

[Luciano Vasques, executive]

Maybe in terms of timing, we can say that just after the autumn budget was issued, all the sector has been engaged in consultation to review the guidance for the Scope 3 emissions, which might -- which is expected to be completed in spring. This is the intention of the government. And so following that, then we will have clarity on how to put in the environmental statements that are necessary for whichever project. But in those calls, when we were announced that there were going to be consultation for that, we were also told that there is -- that the government wants to do consultation on the successor as Iain was mentioned in terms of the long-term fiscal frame.

So we individually, and as a sector, we intend to take the opportunity and have this effective consultation with the government so that between now and Q1 next year, we could have a greater clarity about that.

[Mark Wilson, analyst]

Okay. Very good. Well, I'm going to try and sneak one more in. I think that the U.K. North Sea is 3 for 3 discoveries since the budget, and you've got Jocelyn South drilling. Could you give us an idea of the predrill on that and where that would tie back to in a success case?

[Iain Lewis, executive]

Yes. Jocelyn South is a kind of tieback into the J Area, Mark, if successful, and it's a step out on Jocelyn. And so, yes, we're quietly looking forward to the results as we do with all exploration wells. But as a step out, of course, it's got a slightly higher chance of success than anything that's kind of pure exploration, if you like. So, yes, hopeful. But yes, it's drilling ahead at the moment well. So -- yes.

[Luciano Vasques, executive]

Yes. This is something that has been in the pipeline of the operator for quite some time, and we had a discussion. I can tell that in the previous capacity, we've insisted a lot that this was then eventually executed. We are, as Iain said, looking forward to the result, and we are -- and they are progressing pretty well. And the beauty of it is, of course, if it is successful, it is really a near-term tieback that can be executed.

[Operator]

We have a question from Kim Fustier of HSBC.

[Kim Fustier, analyst]

Just a bit of a housekeeping question first. Could you confirm the implied Q4 pro forma production guidance that would be consistent with the 100,000 to 110,000 for the full year? And secondly, could you generally talk about the ongoing integration of the 2 organizations and the progress on synergies?

[Iain Lewis, executive]

Yes. So in terms of the production, you can probably see on Slide 8 from the presentation that the implied numbers expect 100,000 barrels -- north of 100,000 barrels in Q4. So I think that's our kind of expected full rate, as we've said before. So yes, over 100,000 can be the answer on the first one.

On the second one...

[Luciano Vasques, executive]

Yes. Yes. On the integration, we have a plan to be fully integrated in a period between, say, 9 to 12 months. And there are a number of synergies that we can exploit, of course, onshore, especially, but the financial, the fiscal synergies you've already seen that we have already partially benefited from. And so there are several elements that can come to our advantage.

Clearly, this is a large operation overall, but we have a clear plan of things that have to happen among our people. We have to say that both organizations -- the 3 organizations have been put together and its management is used to this. I mean we've done this time and time again. So there is a, if you want, a culture of integration, which has been developed. And so nobody is facing this for the first time, and there is a method and there is a pretty solid way to achieve it. So clearly, we will look at making the -- benefiting from the advantages that the synergies can bring to us in the next year or so.

[Operator]

Our final question is from Chris Wheaton from Stifel.

[Christopher Wheaton, analyst]

A question on the dividend to start with, please, if I may. Going back to [indiscernible] questions on capital allocation, historically, you said 15% to 30% of post-tax CFFO. I hope I'm not reading too much into this, but on the front of your release today, it says the group is committed to delivering attractive returns to shareholders. Now you've reiterated for 2024 returning 15% to 30% of CFFO, but not beyond that date. And I just wanted to make sure I wasn't reading too much into that and that you were still talking about 15% to 30% of post-tax CFFO as dividend beyond 2025.

I just wanted -- that was my first question.

[Iain Lewis, executive]

Yes. No problem, Chris. Far be it for me to read too much into it. So no, absolutely. I think Slide 15, we tried to emphasize our target for '25 continues to be $500 million. The commitment is absolutely 30% post-tax cash for '24 and '25, but really the key number to focus on is the ambition and the target that we've set to get to $500 million, which the announcement today clearly puts us on trajectory to reach. So yes, no change in that at all. In fact, today's announcement just underlines the previous dividend statement.

[Christopher Wheaton, analyst]

Great. My next question is on tax. You couldn't -- it couldn't be a results call without a question from me on tax. Firstly, just to be clear about the tax guidance for the year, you've had a $53 million refund in 3Q from tax, which means you're in a tax receipt position so far year-to-date to $26 million, but you're still expecting a significant outflow in 4Q in the October installment payment as part of that guidance you've issued. Is that correct? Is my understanding...

[Iain Lewis, executive]

That's correct. That's correct. We always said we'll be over $300 million of EPL payment made in October. We're not giving details of that today, but we're just saying that the cash tax guidance, which included some payments related to the Eni asset portfolio in 2H, will be slightly adjusted down the way. So we'll be less than those guidance ranges, but not materially less, tens of millions less, Chris. We're still paying a significant tax balance in Q4.

[Christopher Wheaton, analyst]

Okay. That's great. Are you able also to say what the -- my last question is the closing net cash, net debt position of the acquired -- the combined assets, the Eni U.K. assets was as of 3rd of October. What that net debt, net cash position was?

[Iain Lewis, executive]

No, we're not giving those details yet, Chris, because we're through the, I guess, the standard closeout process on deals like this around cash settlement of working capital balances and leakage in the period, et cetera. So we're still working through that just now, which is standard with our advisory team. So yes, not able to release final numbers on that today. That will come as part of the year-end close.

[Operator]

I will now hand back to Yaniv for closing remarks.

[Yaniv Friedman, executive]

Thank you, everyone, for joining our Q3 2024 financial statements presentation. Thank you for your questions, and looking forward for our next session. Thank you very much. Have a good day.