International Consolidated Airlines Group SA
LSE:IAG
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International Consolidated Airlines Group SA
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Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and thank you again for joining us for our first quarter update. I'm joined today by Steve Gunning, our Chief Financial Officer; and our airline CEOs, Lynne Embleton, Sean Doyle, Javier Sanchez, Marco Sansavini. Before Steve gets into detail of IAG's performance over the last quarter, I would like to set out some context. There is no question, and it's clear when you see our exceptional loss of EUR 1,135 million in the first quarter, that the environment for IAG and all the airlines that we operate have been extremely challenging. It is also still uncertain. The rate at which corridors are opening is slower than we hope. And when travel is possible, the requirements imposed on travelers are having a big impact on passenger traffic. In the first quarter, the capacity was only 20% of 2019 levels. And although IAG went into the pandemic in an excellent shape, both strategically and financially, having made significant improvements in profitability and in returns on invested capital, we needed to take decisive actions. During this month, the safety of our people and our customers have been paramount. And as you know very well, another key focus area has been ensuring that IAG and our airlines are as financially robust as possible to withstand whatever the next few months may hold, and to ensure that operationally we are organized for the current circumstances. At the end of March, liquidity in terms of cash and undrawn facilities remain strong at EUR 10.5 billion compared with EUR 10.3 billion at the end of 2020 as a result of several debt market initiatives during the quarter. We have also undertaken significant restructuring of our business to reduce our cost base and be better prepared for the future. And we need to ensure that we are as efficient as possible because that's what enabled us to continue investing in delivering a great service to our customers that in turn is what inspires all our people. The core mission of all our brands is bringing people together, enabling them to travel around the world to visit family and friends for work or for leisure. From the booking patterns, we see that our customers are ready to travel again, and we are ready for them. Unfortunately, we expect a low level of passenger capacity to continue in the second quarter at around 25% of the level that we had in 2019. But we expect to increase capacities quite strongly from the end of May. Vaccination rates have been a success in the U.K. You know that almost 70% of all those that have received at least 1 dose and 30% the complete package. And U.S. has a similar rate. COVID infection rates have been declining in many of our main markets. Also testing capabilities have been increasing and digital apps are available so that passengers can demonstrate their certification of the vaccination and the testing results. This will mean that, from our point of view, air travel can restart safely at larger scale from May, and it can be increased into the summer months. The U.K. government should reap the benefits of its success in managing the pandemic by opening up the country to meaningful air travel on 17th of May. In particular, we hope that the U.S. is recognized by the U.K. as a green country with the COVID and vaccination data support as a first step towards establishing a travel corridor between the 2 countries from June. And finally, despite the pandemic, we remain committed to the future and our climate change goals. On Earth Day on 22nd of April, we made 2 further commitments. First, to powering 10% of our flights with sustainable aviation fuel by 2030. And second, to attain our net-zero emissions by 2050 commitment to also include the Scope 3 emissions of our supply chain in addition to our Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. And now Steve will give you the details of the first quarter.
Thanks, Luis. Good morning, everybody. I'll take you through the key points now in relation to the quarter 1 results. So turning to Slide 5. This slide shows the quarter 1 pre-exceptional operating results. We've provided 2 comparators this time around. Last year, so 2020 Q1 and the last normal year, which is 2019 Q1, so a V2Y and a VLY. I don't intend to go through each line, but just highlight some key points. In terms of pre-exceptional operating loss of EUR 1.135 billion demonstrates the ongoing impact of the pandemic. The loss is a little lower than the previous quarter. In Q3, it was EUR 1.3 billion. In Q4, the loss was about EUR 60 million greater. The capacity in the quarter was 78% lower than 2020 and 80% lower than 2019, but it was in line with the guidance we provided to you at the year-end results at the end of February. In terms of passenger revenue, it fell 88.5% year-on-year driven by the lower capacity and the combined impact of lower load factors, which were down nearly 31% year-on-year and lower unit revenues, which were down nearly 50% at constant currency. And long haul continued to outperform the short haul revenues consistent with the trends that we saw in quarter 4. Cargo continues to be a bright spot. Cargo revenue was $350 million, which is a record first quarter for IAG Cargo and over EUR 100 million up year-on-year. Revenues were boosted by 1,306 cargo-only flights in the quarter. The revenue performance was also strong due to strong yields, which increased by 95% year-on-year. Actual volumes were down about 27%. It needs to be noted that cargo is playing an important role supporting the long haul passenger network, where many flights could not be justified by the passenger demand alone. If we turn to costs. Costs fell 59% year-on-year as a result of cost-cutting efforts and the impact of the reduced capacity. Employee cost reductions of nearly 50% showed the effect of last year's restructuring programs together with the positive impact of the various employee furlough schemes across our businesses. These schemes account for approximately 1/3 of the year-on-year reduction. Supply costs decreased about 86% at constant currency, driven by the capacity reduction and also the numerous cost-saving initiatives in the group. In terms of depreciation, amortization and impairment costs, these decreased due primarily to the reduction in the group's fleet. The in-service fleet reduced from 595 aircraft at March 2020 to 531 aircraft at the end of March 2021. If we now move to Slide 6. We've talked about the pre-exceptional results. Let's talk about the exceptional items. In quarter 1, there is an exceptional gain of EUR 67 million relating principally to the overhedge fuel position. I've explained the overhedge position in previous presentations. This write-back is driven by the increase in fuel prices in quarter 1, or to put another way, when the excess hedge positions that we have are mark-to-market with a higher fuel price, the overall loss is smaller. Given our experience of overhedging losses, during the pandemic, we've been reviewing our hedging policy. And we've just approved with the Board a revised policy. This revised policy is designed to give greater flexibility and to reduce the negative impact of our hedge book when there is a significant unexpected drop in demand or capacity and a material or sudden drop in fuel prices. We have set out the revised policy in the interim management statement that we've issued. It's on Page 6. But the key amendments are we've moved from a 3-year rolling policy to a 2-year rolling policy. And we've reduced the maximum levels up to 60% in the first 12 months and up to 30% in the second 12 months. We move now on to Slide 7 and look at how our different airlines are tackling different challenges and different headwinds. We don't typically use this slide in the first quarter, but we thought it was useful to show the differentiation of performance and challenges for each of the operating companies. In terms of Aer Lingus, Ireland at the moment has a uniquely stringent set of travel restrictions. In fact, Ireland probably has the most severe travel restrictions in the whole of Europe. As a consequence, Aer Lingus is flying 96% less capacity than 2019, and its results are the most challenged in the group. If you look at British Airways, the U.K. has also during quarter 1 suffered very severe travel restrictions. However, it has benefited significantly from its cargo flying, which has generated more revenue than the passenger business and also supported the BA long haul network. If I turn to Iberia, Clearly, the best financial performance in the quarter of any of our airlines. Iberia has been able to fly significantly higher capacity, reflecting less travel restrictions in Latin America and a stronger domestic market. Finally, Iberia has also benefited from significant maintenance business and also its handling business. If you look at Vueling. Vueling's business is very seasonal and hence, quarter 1 is always a loss-making quarter. However, in this quarter 1, the loss was much lower than that we've seen in the previous 3 quarters during the pandemic, where the operating loss has been about EUR 180 million. So this improvement in the performance in Q1 largely driven by positive unit revenue due to a very tight capacity provision and also some significant cost improvement as well. We turn now to Slide 8 and turn now to liquidity, which clearly has been a principal focus for us. During quarter 1, we continued to strengthen our liquidity position. The quarter demonstrates that the group has good access and continuing access to capital markets. We finalized and drew down on the EUR 2.2 billion U.K. export finance facility. We successfully issued a new unsecured bond for EUR 1.2 billion. This was heavily oversubscribed, so we were able to upsize it. And we also introduced a new 3-year revolving credit facility, which is available to British Airways, Iberia and Aer Lingus. By the end of quarter 1, we had EUR 10.5 billion of liquidity, which is higher than prepandemic level of EUR 9.1 billion. That said, we will continue to focus on liquidity until the path to recovery becomes more certain. Whilst that outlook is uncertain, we do actually have flexibility. So if we do recover faster than we were anticipating, we do have the ability to pay off debt with no penalties to quite a significant level. If we move now to Slide 9. This slide provides an update on the group's net debt position. Compared to the year-end position, net debt has increased EUR 1.8 billion. Three main drivers to this. Clearly, gross debt is up EUR 3.9 billion which primarily relates to the U.K. export finance drawdown of EUR 2.2 billion and the issuance of the unsecured bond. Cash is up EUR 2.1 billion as a consequence of these funds coming in, less the cash used during the period. And finally, there are 2 noncash items that are contributing to the increase in debt. There's the impact of EUR 0.4 billion, which is effectively a foreign exchange difference where the dollar has strengthened and also there's EUR 0.2 billion of direct lease liabilities that we've added during the quarter. Moving now to the final financial slide, looking at the cash operating costs. We've shared this information with you before, but not quite in this format. Just a reminder, on definition, we appreciate our airlines are all defining cash flow in different ways. We use group gross operating cash costs because we think it's helpful in 2 ways. It doesn't just focus on P&L cost, but looks at all operating cash costs. It excludes any revenues or forward bookings simply because we think those are so uncertain at the moment, that to provide that as guidance, we think, would be misrepresenting it. If we look at Q1, the normal operating environment in Q1, we would have expected a EUR 410 million per week operating cash burn. We guided you to EUR 185 million per week, and the actual outcome has been somewhat below that at EUR 175 million. If we look at quarter 2, we're now guiding you to EUR 200 million per week, which is a 55% reduction from a normal pre-COVID-19 flying program cost. As a reference, we are running a similar level of ASPs in quarter 2 as we did in quarter 4 of last year. And in quarter 4 last year, our operating cash costs were EUR 215 million, and we're guiding you this time around to EUR 200 million. A couple of factors that are driving that cost higher than, say, Q1. Firstly, the obvious factor, which is capacity is higher in Q2 than Q1. And secondly, we are anticipating a decent summer season from July onwards. And so we are anticipating there will be increased selling costs during the quarter as a consequence of that. Those are the key highlights on the financial section, and now I hand back to Luis.
Thanks, Steve. So we have shown this booking chart several times over the last year, I think the last time was 21st of February, the day before, Prime Minister Boris Johnson revealed the U.K.'s plan to exit from lockdown. And since then, as you can see, bookings have been quite volatile, initially rising towards the end of February and then settling back again by the end of March and rising again in April. Going into May, we would expect bookings to recover, assuming that governments are serious about opening up the tourism. There is plenty of evidence of a strong pent-up demand when and where travel is allowed. And in previous presentation, we have shown that this is happening in all the markets. Currently, for example, in the Spanish domestic market, we are receiving the most bookings. We are more than 50% of the 2019 levels. And as you can see, this is followed by the long haul at around 30% of the normal, if we consider normal 2019. And international short haul at around 25%.If the U.K. government indicates a meaningful number of countries on its green list, we will expect international short-haul and long haul bookings to increase significantly from later this month. We can see in this slide, seat capacity last month by the major air travel flows compared to 2019. And as Steve said before, Europe is the most restrictive region in the world in terms of air travel. Intra-European travel is the most restrictive intra-regional market. And you can see that we are a minus 73% of capacity compared to April 2019. And within Europe, Ireland, as we said before, and U.K. are the most restrictive markets in terms of air travel. We see that other domestic markets, for example, China, they have 19% more seats now on sales than they have in April 2019. The U.S. domestic market, the largest market, domestic in the world, have seat capacity down by minus 27% in April. Intra-Latin America, for example, was down minus 39%. But if we look also to other large market for us, the North Atlantic, seat capacity was down minus 77% in April, followed by the South Atlantic, and you can see a range between the minus 60% and minus 70% less capacity. It's also true that U.S. border remains open for most countries, except for European countries. We are also calling for the ending of U.S. restrictions on travelers from Europe. Under the U.S. Presidential Section 212S Order of the Immigration and Nationality Act, Europeans are forbidden to enter in the U.S. because of the prevalence of COVID-19. And the only other countries where the U.S. government applies this border closure are Brazil, China, India, Iran and South Africa. And in order to have a proper corridor between the U.K. and the U.S., this order needs to be rescinded. Our industry and the group IAG, we are well-prepared for a meaningful restart this summer. You can see that airlines and airports are operating to globally with health and operating protocols, and our aircraft have the safest and healthiest of any environment you can find. Testing infrastructure is extensive, but most airports test now can be done remotely at home or while traveling, and we have developed digital solutions to demonstrate verification of vaccine and testing records. We also have aircraft fleet and crew readiness plan in place at each of our airlines. Governments in Europe and around the world have made good progress in dealing with the pandemic. We think that the U.K. has the lowest infection rate in Europe as well as the highest vaccination rate for major country. And European government and the EU have made significant developments in preparing for a restart of air travel, such as reopening road maps, traffic light system, COVID-19 digital certificates, and live passengers locator forms. But we need further government actions. We now need governments to build on the good work they have done in dealing with the pandemic and preparing for a restart of air travel. In this slide, you have a long list of actions that we request of our government. I'm not going through all of them, but I would like to highlight the 4 of the most important actions that we require. We need travel corridors without restrictions between countries with successful vaccination rollouts and effective testing, in particular, between the U.K. and the U.S. Testing should replace quarantine and must be affordable, simple and precautionary. Borders at the airports must be well staffed and use contactless technology and electronic gates to ensure a safe and smooth flow of people and frictionless travel when the recovery comes. And finally, digital passes for testing and vaccinations documentation to facilitate international travel. And despite the pandemic, IAG remains focused on our long-term climate change commitments. IAG has always being a leader in this field. In October 2019, we were the first airline group worldwide to commit to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, covering scope 1 and scope 2 emissions. Two weeks ago, on Earth Day, we extended our net-zero commitment further by also including scope 3 emissions. You know that the scope 3 emissions are those that are produced by our suppliers and partners and represent around 23% of our total emissions. As an interim measure on the way to 2050, we are also targeting a 20% reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030. IAG is also the first European Airline Group to commit to powering 10% of our flights with sustainable aviation fuel by 2030. This new target is in addition to our existing target of 45 sustainable aviation fuel by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuel produced 70% fewer carbon emissions than fossil fuel. And we intend to purchase at least 1 million tons of sustainable aviation fuel annually by 2030. To meet this target, we need also the U.K. government to set policy and incentives to enable construction of at least 14 sustainable aviation fuel plants in 7 locations in the U.K. And finally, the outlook, which remains uncertain. We operated only 20% of our normal capacity in the first quarter, as you saw before. For the second quarter, we currently plan a slight increase to 25% of 2019 levels. And we expect it to be higher than this as travel restriction in the U.K. start to be relaxed from later this month. At this stage, because this uncertainty, we cannot give capacity guidance for the rest of the year. But we are confident that it will be a lot more meaningful in the second half than in the first half of the year once we know where people can fly and what level of travel restrictions will apply, especially in our home market. IAG is ready for a safe restart this summer. Governments have taken important first steps to improve health conditions and control the virus. But as I said before, we need our governments to take further actions to enable a meaningful restart this summer. And in particular, again, we need travel corridors where vaccination rates are high, such as between the U.K. and U.S., affordable and simple testing to replace quarantines, well-staffed borders using contactless technology and electronic gates, and digital passes for testing and vaccination documentation to enable seamless international travel. As you can see, the industry is facing great challenges unchanged. But the good news is that people want to fly, people -- we are ready also to fly. And we will be ready to take advantage of the opportunities for profitable growth that we will have in the future. Thank you for your attention, and now we are available to answer all your questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question for today is from Daniel Roeska from Bernstein.
While you and I think all of us are waiting to travel again and for traffic to return, I'd like to touch then on maybe 2 more strategic questions. The first one on short haul. If we're assuming that long haul travel will return a little bit slower and business travel will return a little bit slower, isn't there a risk and short haul of some overcapacity? And I think the question is if connecting passengers and business travelers are not as abundant on short haul, where do you think your cost position can be? So maybe focusing on short haul, do you think you can reduce your short-haul cost position, especially at the network airlines, below where it was pre-pandemic? And then secondly, could you talk a little bit about distribution. You didn't touch on it right now, but kind of what are the next steps that will be enabled by the direct distribution? Can you give us kind of the next 3 or 4 major milestones in your direct distribution strategy?
Okay. I think about the first question about the short haul, it's true what you say that we see that recovery of the short haul is going to be earlier. And I think, for example, you see the volume plan for this summer, they are ready to fly almost 100% of the capacity that they've had in 2019. So demand is there. When we don't have restrictions, we can fly. And I think, as you say, in our hubs, we are adjusting also our network to try to have the pieces necessary when we can fly to the long haul destinations. But I think in the short haul, we have much more flexibility that we can have in the long haul. I don't know, Sean, if you want to add anything to that?
Yes. I think we've been adapting and kind of -- if you look at British Airways, there's been a lot of structural change initiated. So the airline is leaner and smaller and has fleet flexibility to align capacity with demand, but there's also structural cost efficiencies, which are going to come through and make us competitive. So I think we have agility, but we're also more competitive coming out of the pandemic as a result of the restructuring that was undertaken last year.
If we're saying on costs, I mean, if you think about your short-haul cabin on BA specifically then, right, we're going to a period of time where you'll have fewer connecting travelers on that short haul and fewer business travelers on that short haul. And I think the underlying question is, will the cost reduction be enough to deal with the yield dilution?
I think there's a couple of kind of dimensions here about the kind of markets we serve. So number one, you're right, business travel is important to us. But we do see pent-up demand for business travel and frustration with things like Teams Meetings and Zoom calls. And that is beginning to scale as we look at surveys and look at our corporate intelligence. I think, secondly, I wouldn't underestimate the relevance that we have built up in the leisure segment. So if you look at the BA short haul network, it's been pivoting to much more relevance out of all of our airports to leisure, and we've been very dynamic in planning our capacity. The third thing is we do have flexible configurations. So we can actually reconfigure our aircraft on short haul to have a variety of business and economy configurations because of the way we have kind of set up our aircraft structures. And the fourth thing, which we have, is a very strong BA Holidays business, which has grown 15-fold over the last 10 years. We've got a lot of overlap between people who fly from our executive club base of people who use our BA Holidays business. So I think we're well able to kind of offer products, not just airfares, but packaged products. And we're very flexible in adapting to leisure demand as it emerges in VFR demand.
Okay. And on your second question about the distribution. I think in the last results presentation, we announced also the agreement that we reached with Amadeus. And I think that's part of our strategy, first of all, to reduce our distribution cost and also to have a better customized proposal for our customers. In the plan that we are developing for the different airlines, I think that we are planning that to have regional price points and dynamic pricing is going to be a key and to develop also the ancillary revenue. And I think the future is to be more efficient, more efficient in the part of the cost, but also, as I said, to make a dynamic personalized offers. So that's something we are working it -- working on it. And I think we are in a good pit in order to achieve that.
Our next question is from Savi Syth from Raymond James.
Just first question for me. As markets open up, assuming demand supports it, up to what level of 2019 capacity do you think you can ramp up based on what your current staffing and other potential limitations might be? And then just a slightly different line of -- along what Daniel asked, on a bit more of a medium- and longer-term basis, If you look at your fleet retirement and configurations of the fleets that are coming in and some of the costs that you are kind of taking out, how much of a loss of that business premium traffic can the model handle and still generate pre-crisis kind of low double-digit margins? And I'm referring to business because I'm guessing that kind of premium leisure will bounce back pretty well. So just a little to term, not necessarily thinking about short term, but how much of that business demand could you lose and still be profitable given the changes in the system?
Okay. Thank you. I think about the first question, as I explained before, we have a lot of uncertainty about the future. But in the same way, we have a lot of flexibility. So at the group level, we can operate between 70%, 75% of 2019 capacity in the third quarter. We could operate between 80% and 85% in the fourth quarter. It's true that we can have a little more flexibility on Iberia and Vueling. Iberia, for example, they can reach 80% in the third quarter and 90% in fourth quarter. And Vueling, as I said before, they can reach 100% in third quarter, fourth quarter. The main reason for that is because the Spanish Futuro program, what we call ERTE, it works in a different way. And the people that we have in the ERTE, the major part of them, they maintain the recent experience, and they are ready to fly. But it's true also that we have reduced the capacity in both companies in Iberia and BA -- sorry, with in Iberia. For example, with the retirement of 15 340-600 a year ago and also in BA with 747. So that is connected to your second question, that is, how do we see the future. And for example, the retirement of the 747 implies a reduction of minus 24% seats, if we compare with the situation that we had previously. With a mix of minus 33% in premium and minus 22% in nonpremium. So we are reducing the premium seats that we have. And what we are doing is to have a flexible model for the future. I think the configuration of the aircraft is going to be key. The premium economy class is working very well. And we consider that, as Steve said before also, we are going to be smaller, and we need to be leaner. And we still don't know how it's going to be the behavior of the customer. So what we need to be is more flexible. And I think we have the flexibility with the different fleets that we have to adapt ourselves to the demand that we can have in the future. And one important thing that we repeat in every results presentation also is that for us, corporate travel is only, I would say, 13% of our revenues. That's important.
And just a clarification. Was that the 33% reduction in kind of premium fees, is that overall systems versus kind of precrisis?
Yes. Let me pick up on that. So what's interesting to us is when we look at the corporate sales position, our sort of working assumption is there'll be a sort of 15% diminution in that based on the COVID experience and people wanting to use Teams and Zoom rather than get on an aircraft. So our sort of working hypothesis is about 15%. And we've seen lots of surveys that seem to support that kind of quantum. If we look at the way the fleet will progress by about 2023, I say, if you look at British Airways, due to the taking out of the 747s and which are very high premium, we think actually that the premium seats will reduce by a similar percentage. And so there's quite an elegant match between that reduction and the change in seat configuration. And that's a combination of a much bigger reduction in first, because we were already going through a process of reducing the size of the first cabin and a reduction in economy due to taking out the 747s and the fact that we're going to a less dense seat. So we think there's quite a match between those two. But the other factor that we would sort of stress on this is premium leisure. We've got a good history of driving premium leisure. In 2016, when British Airways corporate demand was low, we were able to backfill that with premium leisure sales. And as Sean has highlighted earlier this morning, BA Holidays is a very powerful vehicle for us to drive premium leisure as well. And I know the team there are looking at ways as how do you combine the BA Holidays proposition with the Loyalty proposition as well. So we're very confident that due to the way our fleets reconfigured and also what we can do on premium leisure, this shouldn't cause us a problem, which takes us all the way back to the point where we're very confident we can get back to operating margins in the 12% to 15% range in 2023, 2024, assuming we get up to the kinds of capacity levels that we saw around 2019 and pre-COVID.
Our next question is from James Hollins from Exane BNP Paribas.
Two for me, please. The first is on an update on Air Europa, please. Just wondering if you can give any detail on how negotiations are? I think you're speaking to the Spanish government, maybe the EU as well. And then secondly, thank you in advance for being at Our Sustainable Aviation Conference next week. But on that note, just on sustainable aviation fuel is 10% of flights by 2030. So wondering if you could maybe give some detail on how you build up till then? Or is it sort of we have nothing until 2030 and hope the costs of [SAF] are much lower by then?
Okay. About the first question, Air Europa. I can say that the operations continue according to the plan. I think we continue talking with the Spanish government and with CEPI on one hand. And on the other hand, we continue working with the European Competition Authorities. So about the second question. I think you know that we have a commitment of net-zero emissions in 2050. And what we are defining are middle points to arrive there, but that doesn't mean that we don't do anything in the middle. Precisely to arrive to those points, we need to continue with the development of the different initiatives. For example, you know that we continue investing in the new fleet, and we continue with the delivery of new generation aircraft, that they help a lot in the reduction of the consumption of fuel. Also, we are increasing the percentage of sustainable aviation fuel that we are using, but the problem that we have there is that aircraft are prepared to fly with more sustainable aviation fuel, but we need availability of sustainable aviation fuel. And also, we need to have a competitive price. And that's the reason we are saying that we need also the commitment from the government to develop additional plans, because otherwise, it's impossible. So I think we need the investment. And also, we need to -- we have explained several times that, for example, we need innovation. We need initiatives for carbon capture and historic development. We also need that investment for the aircraft of the future. One thing that we have repeated several times also is that it's time to go ahead with a single European sky is something that can reduce, I would say, quickly. The emissions around 10%. So I think all these is things that are happening. And it's not that in 2030 that, that year, we are going to have 10% of sustainable aviation fuel. It's a process we are doing every day a little.
That's very interesting. Just following up on that, I think the German government yesterday or recently announced it was putting EUR 1 billion into the development of sustainable fuel. I was wondering if you were seeing any signs of any sort of investment by, I guess, particularly Spanish and U.K. governments on something similar?
No, the key things we've been involved with as IAG has been to invest in sustainable aviation fuel production through the losses and land to jet. So those are the 2 areas we've been investing ourselves. We have lobbied the U.K. government, I say a bit. I'm sure Sean's got views on that. But we're still calling on them to further support the increased production of SAF fuels. I think the last time we looked at it, we were sort of saying the U.K. would probably need something like 14 production plants in the U.K. to be able to produce enough sustainable aviation fuel to support a 10% target that we're having for 2030. So as Luis said, there's no one silver bullet for this. We're looking at this from 4 or 5 angles. What we do on fleet, what's done with air traffic control and operating activities to be more efficient. And also what can be done to produce more sustainable aviation fuel in a price-competitive way.
Yes. Just to add to that, we are very proactive in the Jet Zero Council and sustainable aviation fuel is very much in the sights of the Jet Zero Council here in the U.K. We need match funding to build plants from the government. The demand is there because you see airlines coming out and actually committing to proportions of fuel, which will be driven by SAF. But we also need the market structures in terms of price certainty, which I think policy should support as well. So I think there is a huge amount of engagement in SAF in the U.K., but that needs to convert into commitment.
Our next question is from Stephen Furlong from Davy Stockbrokers.
Gentlemen, maybe for Steve, just one clarification first. I mean I know you don't talk about the balance sheet in the Q1 and maybe just more accounting thing. But I assume with the losses in Q1 and Q2, the equity goes negative. And is that something that is a concern or basically, it's not cash related. So I just wanted to ask that. And second point then, if -- assuming you get back to 2019 levels of capacity in, say, 2023, would you be confident that unit cost levels will be lower? I'm just thinking more about any cost pressures like an airport charges, say, Etro or I see Aena are talking about proposals to increase user charges across its airports.
So on the first question, you're absolutely right, Stephen. We do anticipate that as a group we'll go into negative equity probably during the middle of the year. From a group perspective, that doesn't really have any ramifications on ICAG so the parent company level we would expect equity to stay positive. But where it does have some ramifications is there are equity tests in Spain under Spanish regulations. And for Iberia and Vueling, we would expect to do some degree of equity restoration as a consequence of not meeting some of those targets. Now there's alleviation from that, those tests at the moment. So if we needed to do some work to put some further equity into those 2 businesses, we wouldn't need to do it until February 22. And we're comfortable with the modeling that we've got the capability and the ability to do it. So it's a good question. But from everything we're seeing at the moment, we're in good shape. But we wouldn't need any new equity at the parent level. This would just be down at the operating company level. With regards to your second question, in terms of 2023 unit cost levels. We're confident that they will be lower than they were in 2019, as you say, based on the premise that capacity is back at sort of 2019 levels. All the modeling we've done suggests that that's the case. We are very aware that there are inflationary pressures as well as the initiatives that we have. So as you rightly mentioned, some of the airports and some of the handlers are also going to be looking to recover the positions that they've suffered during COVID-19. But one thing I would reassure you is Luis has built the management committee, put a Chief Transformation Officer. We've got a new Director of Strategy. And whilst we're dealing with the short-term challenges of COVID-19, we're also, at the same time, planning what 2023 and 2024 looks like. So there's a lot of work going on there in terms of what are the right transformation initiatives and what can we do to reach our full potential. So we're confident we'll get back to 12% to 15% operating margin. If anything, Luis is pushing us all for more than that. So we're comfortable with the unit cost performance.
And our next question is from Jarrod Castle from UBS.
Firstly, any views on families traveling with young children, given at the moment they can't be vaccinated? It seems like there's a bit of progress there though, but at the moment. And also, those traveling who need to undertake testing because they haven't been vaccinated, i.e., views on your ability to recover traffic. And then secondly, we're obviously going to get some clarity from the U.K. government. But we've had kind of the announcement about the green passports from the EU. But specifically, where do things currently stand as you see them in Spain and Ireland looking out towards summer?
Okay. I think that for your first question about the testing and the vaccines on the families. I think we are constantly analyzing the -- what the customer wants. And I think what we are definite is that vaccination plus testing is the future. I think the people that they are fully vaccinated, they don't need to have any restriction to fly. But we know that not everybody can be fully vaccinated. So we consider that testing -- affordable testing and easy testing is required to fly. And when you talk about families, we consider that. Now the solution is testing. You can have part of the family vaccinated. You can have children, okay, but testing can be required for the people that they are not vaccinated and that can -- that is enough because what we have seen is that with the data that we have, testing is better than quarantine. At the end, quarantine is not the solution. In some way, you rely on people staying at home, but you don't have any evidence that this is happening. So what we see in general is that people is excited with the possibility to fly. In the surveys we are doing, 60% of the people in U.K., they want to fly and they want to go on holiday this summer. And that's something that, as I said before, we have that pent-up demand, we are ready to fly. And about the second question.
Spain and airline restrictions.
Okay. Spain and airline restrictions. I think if Spain's state of alarm will finish the 9th of May. And I think from that moment, we hope that everything is going to be easier. We know that the Spanish government is working hard to have tourism during this summer, it's key for the economy of the countries. We hope that at least part of the destinations in Spain can be also in the green list that we are going to have soon. And about Ireland, the situation, as Steve explained before, I would say it cannot be worse. Because to be honest, we cannot fly. So we are in a situation that we are considering what are the next steps we need to take there in order to survive, to be honest. I don't know, Javier, Marco, you can maybe give further information about the Spain and link about airline.
Javier here. It's -- well, as you said, the 9th of this month is when the state of alarm will end. We are expecting and we are urging our government also to actually restore the back-to-normal. So no restrictions to fly among the different regions in Spain. And in fact, if we think about what you were saying before and the map that you shared before. When we look to Europe and to the traffic into Europe, the capacity is decreased by 73%, is the, let's say, the worst region in the world in terms of capacity. And that is a reflection on the number of different constraints and restrictions that we have among the different countries. And this needs to change because it's -- there is no sense that Europe is the region with more restrictions that we have nowadays. I mean, with the vaccination, the progress on the vaccination processes and also the debt, the situation needs to be restored to the previous one and ease the way of traveling.
It's Lynne here. Just firstly, on your question of families, I can't believe the government would be able to sustain a policy where families are split up. So I'm confident that, that will get resolved. So on the Ireland situation, without a doubt, the Irish government are taking a way more cautious approach than any of the other governments, particularly in Europe. And the recent actions such as putting the USA onto this mandatory hotel quarantine list has devastated the ability to sustain flying. We do have an aviation restart plan that is sponsored by the airlines and all of the stakeholders, and we've worked closely with government on that. And we are in dialogue with the government about what needs to happen. Opening up the common travel area between U.K. and Ireland is an obvious first step which we believe is very low risk, adopting the EU traffic light system and the digital green certificate is an obvious step they can take. And therefore, we believe there is a safe path. And we're in dialogue to try and encourage that because, as you know, the summer is more important than the winter from an aviation perspective and the summer months are still to play for, and we're encouraging the Irish government not to be as cautious if they can give us any support.
Our next question for today is from Neil Glynn from Credit Suisse.
Just firstly, just as we, I guess, await the update from the U.K. and anticipate some kind of a step-up in forward bookings, I mean if you look at the percentages of forward bookings that you outlined earlier, if I look at 25% to 30% of third quarter revenues pre the pandemic, that might suggest the possibility of around EUR 2 billion of cash to come in the door at some point over the next few months. And without getting too ahead of myself, I just wanted to understand, Steve, your thinking on decision-making on whatever level of incoming cash flows might come in, because your liquidity position certainly seems fine. It's higher than pre-pandemic. But the debt clearly will eventually be repaid. So what kind of cash flow position do you think about to start actually repaying that debt? And any guidance on what are the top priorities for debt repayment when the timing is eventually right would be helpful. And then a second question. At the full year, you mentioned maybe just for Luis or for Sean, but at the full year, there was mention of OEM negotiations continuing. And I wonder, as large domestic markets rebound, how are those discussions advancing? I assume they're somewhat influenced by traffic restarting? And can you give us any latest guidance on fleet planning and CapEx for 2022 or 2023 to the extent you can?
Neil, I think somehow you've managed to put about 10 questions into 2 questions there, which is quite impressive. If I deal with the first one with regards to forward bookings, cash coming in liquidity and what's your priority to delever. In terms of that, you're absolutely right. We're assuming that there will be a decent summer flying. Clearly, it's going to be more Q3 than Q2 and it's probably a little bit later than we were hoping for. But we're still confident that we'll get a decent summer flying in. And clearly, if that does come through with green list announcements, et cetera, the first list and maybe the subsequent list, we would expect to then see an inflow of cash through forward bookings late Q2 and going into Q3. That would be our expectation. And clearly, if you get into Q3 then and you are having a significant summer, then clearly, that will help from an EBITDA perspective as well. So you're right, if that sort of base case prevails, we would start to see the liquidity position enhanced to some degree. And clearly, there's such a wide variety of potential outcomes at the moment that, as I said earlier, we're still focusing heavily on maintaining and optimizing our liquidity. And so we continue to look at other ways as to how we can bolster that if we feel that was appropriate. But it does raise the point, and I did allude to this when I was sort of presenting the slides. We are mindful to the fact that there could be a situation, and it would be a lovely problem to have that maybe in a few months' time, maybe you're sitting there saying, "We've got more liquidity than we need." That would be a lovely problem to have. And the point I was making earlier is we've got quite a lot of flexibility. With a lot of the debt instruments that we've taken out, we can repay those early without cost. And so we've got a number of different ways we could go. I think what we'd have to do is judge that when we get to that situation because it will depend what the situation is for each of the different operating companies because as we've highlighted in this presentation, the challenges faced by each of the operating companies is very different. The challenge for Aer Lingus at the moment is very different to the challenge facing BA when you look to the future. So we've got lots of flexibility. Clearly, some of the things we'd like to do is remove some of the debt that has restrictions to it, whether those are dividend restrictions or other things. But really, we'll make those judgments and we'll discuss that with the Board when we get to that what I hope would be nice dilemma in a few months' time.
Yes. About -- the second question was about the fleet, I think the quick answer is no. We haven't changed our aircraft deliveries. We maintain what we told you before. We maintained the CapEx that we are playing in February. We are going to have 15 new aircraft deliveries including 9 aircraft that were delayed from 2020. And for 2022, in principle, we have already explained that we will not have more than 29 deliveries additional.
Your next question today is from Andrew Lobbenberg from HSBC.
You've spoken quite a bit about the hopes and aspirations of the U.S.-U.K. travel corridor, but you've been rather more circumspect about the EU-U.S. So what are your expectations or ambitions for that reopening, I guess, particularly relevant to Lingus and, a lesser degree, to Iberia? And then can I ask what your expectations are around the slot rules for the winter '21, '22? And in that context, how you think about managing the Gatwick environment depending on the potential different outcomes of what if normal 80/20 rules are reintroduced?
Okay. Thank you. I think on the first question, we said that U.K., U.S. market, a part that is important, as you say, very important for us is also because we consider that with the scientific data that we have is a corridor that must be open. I think the vaccination rate in U.S. is similar to U.K. It's true that In U.S., there is a high -- relatively, I would say, high infection rate. I think 196 new cases per million if you compare with around 40 that will happen in the U.K. But I think that it's very important to include the U.S. in the green list, I said before that it's not only a question to include in the green list, we also need action from the other side. So we hope that in June, we can be flying that market that, as you say, is key for us. And about the slots, also, we hope that we are going to have an alleviation for the following season. I think it makes a lot of sense. And also link -- we say always to the sustainability issues. I think it doesn't make sense that the airlines we are flying empty to try to maintain a slot where we are trying in some way to reduce the CO2 emission. So I ensure that we are going to continue with the alleviation. And in Gatwick...
Sorry, I was going to come back at the question about the transatlantic, I was actually asking about the E.U. to U.S. rather than the U.K. to the U.S.
Okay. E.U. to U.S., I think we've had 2 news also last week. E.U. said that they are ready to open the market to U.S. citizens that they are vaccinated. I think that's a very good step. So we hope that market is going to be open also in the second half.
Sorry for interrupting you. You were just going to say something about Gatwick. Sorry about that.
Okay. No, no, I was going to say that Gatwick is an important decision that we need to take as a group. It's true that we have the issue with the slots. But for us, Gatwick has some strategic value, but we need to be competitive there. This crisis is going to change the profile, I would say, of the demand, and we need to be flexible and competitive there. So we are analyzing the different options that we can have in Gatwick, and we will explain to you when we take our decision. I don't know, Sean, if you want to add anything to that?
I think, as Luis said, we got to figure out a number of things first as well. One is, as you say, the slot rows, and that's undergoing consultation, but it's probably a couple of months before we get clarity. And secondly, is fundamentally market access going forward. So the green list today is a start, but those variables will be at play as we look into winter. But at the minute, we're operating our short-haul services out of Heathrow, and that will carry on for the foreseeable...
Our next question is from Johannes Braun from Stifel.
Yes. Also two, obviously. Firstly, how will you react to JetBlue starting transatlantic flights to and from Heathrow this autumn? So for example, would there be a need for some reaction from a product perspective? And also how would you see JetBlue competition compared with the Norwegian competition that you used to have? And second question, could you remind us of the various partial activity and furlough schemes in the various countries you operate, especially when they all end and what that means for the development of labor costs?
Okay. About the first question, about JetBlue. I think 2 things about that. First of all, you know that we have a good relationship with JetBlue, For example, with Aer Lingus, we are working very well a long time ago. You know also that they are developing the relationship with American Airlines that is our partner in the joint business. So we have a lot of things to work together, and that's something we are exploring now. But it's true also that they are going to start flying North Atlantic with the narrow body aircraft. And I think it's going to be an interesting product. But we have also that opportunity and Aer Lingus, they are flying also the 321 long range. And it's an opportunity that we have now with, for example, the new flights that we are expecting from Manchester. And I think with that type of aircraft, it's something that -- an area that we can develop in the group. So maybe, Sean, you can add something your vision from British Airways.
Well, I think you mentioned product, and we are continuing to reembody and take delivery of aircraft with a brand-new club worth suite, and we're absolutely delighted with the feedback we're getting on people's experience of that business cloud product. So I think that will make us very differentiated as we look ahead in the business class segment. And I think the way we'll compete with all the carriers in the North Atlantic is a combination of scheduled product, service and loyalty. And I'm very confident that we'll be able to compete very effectively through all those levers going forward. Yes, Aer Lingus launched the 321LR. I think that's going to be replacing a lot of the narrowbody missions that 757 used to do. So it's new in one respect in that it's a new variant, but we have seen narrow-body operations before that we've competed against.
Okay. About your second question about the different furlough schemes that we have in the different countries. As a summary, in Spain, it will finish in May, that Javier and Marco now can talk about that. We hope it's going to be attended. This crisis is taking longer than everybody expected. So we require and we need the help from the different government. And in Ireland, now it will finish in June, now Lynne can explain where we are. And the U.K. in September. So maybe, Lynne, you can explain.
Yes. Yes. So as Luis said, the current scheme formally ends in June, but I fully expect the government will extend it, and we've been in dialogue, and they know the situation we're in. I'd be very surprised if they didn't extend up from now.
Okay. Javier, Marco, about Spain?
Yes. With regards to Spain, indeed, the 31st of May is when the current date for [Puente Aereo] terminates. But the expectation is that it would be extended until the end of September. And would the conditions remain the same, we definitely intend to also extend it as it is the ideal instrument to have flexible labor costs in relation to the level of activity. Maybe I can also comment with regard to the Norwegian element. That, of course, the retrench of Norwegian Airways is an opportunities, in particular for winning in terms of the flows between the Nordic area and Spain. And in this respect, we have launched recently 9-year routes, some of them to Barcelona, some of them to other bases in Spain as these represent opportunities for us to develop those right on markets.
Our next question today is from Gerald Khoo from Liberum.
Two from me. Firstly, on cargo. Clearly, a very strong performance in Q1, but supported by the lack of passenger capacity, lack any hold capacity. At what level of passenger capacity versus 2019 do cargo yield starts to come under pressure again? And secondly, on the balance sheet, I think you flagged that you repaid the U.K. CCFF loan in April. Can you just remind us what are the maturities of facilities that are through the rest of this year, please?
I will just take that one. I think, Steve, you can answer the second one. About cargo. It's a very good question. And you know that the performance of cargo is very good and in some cases or in a lot of cases is supporting the operations. What we think is we have two effects there. One is that we have a specific need of cargo linked to the pandemic, that they are there. We don't know how much of that will be in the future. And also as we have less aircrafts flying, the capacity available is lower. And as a consequence of that, the yields are higher. So as soon as the people are increasing capacity, we consider that this advantage in yields can be reduced. But from our point of view, this can take a minimum 2, 3 years. And also assuming that everybody is going to be there in the future, but we are going to have very weak companies with a lot of that. That they need to repay that balance that they have. So we consider that part of that can be there in the future. Steve, the second one?
Thanks, Luis. Gerald, in terms of your question, what might be helpful is if you go back and look at the IR deck for the year-end results, we put actually a debt repayment schedule in there. And what that showed for 2021 is that we would be paying back about EUR 400 million of debt in 2021. And the vast bulk of that, all but about EUR 60 million of it, related to CCFF. So to answer your question directly, there's not really any left that needs to be repaid in 2021. And just sort of going beyond that, the next significant repayment would be in '22, which would be the convertible that matures in, I think, it's November '22 for about $500 million. So the debt maturity burden, '21, '22 is relatively modest, to be frank.
I think the good thing of this group is we have a lot of talent moving around the group. And so we have Lynne today that until the 6th of April, she was in Cargo. Would you like to add something about...
Just coming back to your question on the yield and the trajectory and cargo. As you've seen in the results, IAG cargo being able to take advantage of the high yields in the market, more than doubling at constant currency. Now the disadvantage that IAG Cargo has is without craters, with passenger flying to take advantage of that in any service, got to get the aircraft up in the air. And cargo was therefore incurring costs of putting effectively empty passenger aircraft in full belly up in the air. So even as the yields fall, that will happen as more passenger aircraft come up. And that means that cargo no longer have to sustain empty cabin aircraft. And so the costs will come down. So in a way, there's a kind of natural hedge between as the yields come down, the cost will come down as well for cargo. But we do believe that it will be a relatively strong market environment for cargo for some time. So we're actually looking forward to the capacity coming back and see that as a good thing for cargo.
Our next question is from Al Paterson from Peel Hunt.
Can I ask 3 questions, please. Firstly, just can you say a little bit around the exceptional cash flows this year, what should we expect for hedge gains? Is there anything we should put in for restructuring? And then secondly, I see the CAA is reviewing customer deposits at all protected holidays from the U.K. If they could no longer be used for corporate purposes, could you just say how much you would be exposed in that and how you would replace that capital?
Okay. Alex, on the first question, in terms of exceptionals. The fuel price has been relatively flat and stable over the last couple of months. Clearly, it moved up, I think, about 10%. I think it was -- I'm doing this off memory. It was somewhere in the region of 450 jet at the year-end, and it's over 500 now currently and has been relatively stable. So there was a small gain in Q1 because we had to remark-to-market the overhedge position. I'm not expecting there to be -- unless there's a very volatile fuel price, I'm not expecting there to be significant exceptional items as a consequence of the overhedging positions on fuel. In terms of restructuring costs, we don't currently have significant restructuring costs built into our models at the moment. So I think it will, God willing, be a relatively quiet year from an exceptional perspective to answer your question. With regards to the at all question, I think you've got on that one. So we will come back to you on that one. There's a lot of faces looking at each other going, yes, that was a good question. We won't -- we don't know the answer to that, so we'll come back to you.
Our next question is from Jaime Rowbotham from Deutsche Bank.
Thanks for the detailed update. I just wanted to ask a couple of fleet-related questions. Firstly, Luis, you mentioned taking advantage of opportunities for profitable growth and Vueling being ready to fly. And Javier just mentioned specific opportunities for Vueling linked to the retrenchment of Norwegian. Some of the ultra low-cost carriers with Ryanair have been taking deliveries of new aircraft throughout the crisis or planning to increase their fleets as we come out of it. They see clearly lots of opportunities. Just wondered whether Vueling has any specific plans or aspirations against that backdrop and how many of the narrow-bodies you have on order that might be destined for Vueling? And then a quick one on the A380. So a couple of weeks ago, another carrier actually had announced a plan, I think, to end A380 operations. I just wondered what your latest thoughts are as one of the few remaining potential operators of that aircraft and in terms of the opening up your hope for a travel corridor with the U.S. from June. Can you see a scenario in which you might thinking -- might think about bringing those 12 aircrafts out of storage later in the year?
Okay. About your first question. Yes, it's really something we're reviewing at a group level. We know the necessities of fleet that we have for the future, and we have different scenarios of growth. But as you know, there is a lot of uncertainty. And that's something we are analyzing where the size of the fleet that we are going to require and when is the right time to approach the market. But we are analyzing that. We're analyzing our narrow body fleet. And Vueling is included in that, for sure. But also, we are analyzing the long haul fleet for the future. So yes, I think it's a win of opportunity that we are analyzing. As soon as we decide something, we will come back to you. And about the 380s, Sean can give you further details, but I explained several times that 380 is an aircraft that works very well for BA in several destinations. And I think part of those destinations are in the East Coast of the U.S. It's going to be useful to have them.
Yes. I think the context as well is we've retired 31 747s. So when you look at our overall long haul fleet, the A380 is part of it going forward. It's not operating at the moment, but when we would see a recovery later in the year, that would be part of those plans. It's a very effective aircraft in a slot-constrained airport like Heathrow, because it does give you optimal capacity deployment. And it works in markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, but has also worked very well in places like Chicago, Boston, Washington and Miami. So we've demonstrated its mission capability across various ranges and parts of our network.
Yes. I think I'd just add one further point. We have continued to take aircraft deliveries during the course of the pandemic. So we took 29 new aircraft during 2020. We're anticipating taking 15 new aircraft this year. And as we indicated in the full year results, we would not expect to take more deliveries than 2020, but we would still expect to take significant deliveries in 2022 as well. So we think continuing to upgrade the fleet, particularly given our carbon commitments and our need for fuel efficiency has been the right move.
Our final question for today is from Carolina Dores from Morgan Stanley.
Two questions. I guess you've spoken about affordable testing for COVID, I guess, would you be willing to take part of this cost to -- if you would help increase demand? And my second question is, assuming you are able to reach 70% of capacity in the third quarter, what -- how much of the EUR 200 million cash cost that you expect for the second quarter will need to increase to match the increasing capacity?
Yes. Sorry, because I didn't understand very well your first question. It's about the affordable test. And if we -- sorry, can you repeat?
Yes. Would you contribute it with the part of the cost of the test to help passenger demand?
Okay. Our point of view is that in the same way vaccines are free for the population, I think, test must be free for the population. But I think that if they are not free, they need to be at least affordable and quick. And we have several initiatives in the different operators to try to help. And now, for example, BA, you have -- Sean, you have reached an agreement for GBP 33, if I remember well?
Yes. We have rapid antigen tests, which are very affordable. We've also got agreements on PCR tests, which are now GBP 45. So I think the cost of PCR testing for Amber Corridor Travel has come down dramatically, and we'd hope to drive that down further. But I think when it comes to testing as well, I think the green corridor should revert to free lateral flow testing. That is very effective solution for travel, and it also removes the affordability issue.
Carolina, in regards to your second question, we're not giving cash burn guidance for Q3. We are sort of sympathetic to the fact that the amount of guidance we've been able to give you over the last 12 months is relatively modest due to the uncertainty. But the 70% sort of maximum capacity that we can get up to in Q3 doesn't give you all the information we would need to be able to give you good cash burn guidance. We know where we were flying that capacity. We need to be confident as to when the restrictions were unlocked and, hence, how quickly the cash could come in. So there's a number of different factors that prevent us giving you an answer to that question. But I do have a sympathy that you're trying to put your models together. And we can't give you as much guidance as would be helpful. So apologies for that.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to the speakers for closing comments. Thank you.
Okay. So thank you, everybody, for this call. And as I said last time, and I hope this time can be true, I hope the next results presentation, we can do it seeing all of you. That's what we want. I think we have the conditions to do that. And I hope we can fly a lot more during the summer. Thank you very much.