Berkeley Group Holdings PLC

LSE:BKG

Earnings Call Analysis

Berkeley Group Positive Despite Challenges

Berkeley Group, under the economic pressures of high interest rates and market volatility, presented a sturdy financial position with a pretax profit of GBP 298 million, surpassing previous guidance and demonstrating an operating margin of 19.5%. Private sales dipped by a third compared to the prior year, yet sale prices held steady, and cost inflation eased. Despite these hurdles, the company has curtailed operating costs by 10%, maintaining a strong net cash position of GBP 422 million and extending its profit target to GBP 1.5 billion across the next three years. The total home sales volume is anticipated to be about 8,000 for FY '24 and '25, with prices expected to stay above GBP 600,000. With prudent cost management and an adjusted business strategy to uphold margins, Berkeley Group stays resilient and prepared for potential new investments or further shareholder returns if the current market stance persists.

Slight Profit Beat and Strategic Planning Amidst Market Challenges

Berkeley has reported a slightly better-than-expected pretax profit of GBP 298 million, surpassing prior guidance while maintaining a sturdy operating margin of 19.5%. Their financial resilience is evident with net cash holding above GBP 400 million. Despite facing a cyclic sales market influenced by external conditions such as heightened interest rates, Berkeley's pricing has been steady, and build cost inflation has stabilized. However, the regulatory landscape is causing increased costs and delays, affecting the viability of new investments and medium-term outlook. In response, the company has prudently managed its unique long-term operating model, achieving a 10% reduction in operating costs year-over-year.

Holistic Financial Health and Moderation in Earnings Growth

The company's financial position remains robust with net assets totaling GBP 3.4 billion and an increased net asset value per share by 3.8% to GBP 32.19. Although earnings per share saw a subtle decline of 1% to 198.3p, primarily due to a rise in the corporation tax rate, the financial prudence led to a profit after tax of GBP 212 million. Further financial strength is signaled by the net cash increase to GBP 422 million, and a strong forward sales position highlighting visibility in near-term earnings and cash flow.

Realignment to Market Dynamics with Stable Guidance

Despite reduced sales volume, the average selling price of homes increased to GBP 624,000, contributing to the revenue holding at GBP 1.2 billion, down only by 1% year-on-year. Berkeley anticipates maintaining target volumes around 8,000 for fiscal years 2024 and 2025, with pricing guidance above GBP 600,000 in the current year before a projected reduction. Looking forward, Berkeley has extended its guidance to FY 2026, aiming for at least GBP 1.5 billion of pretax profit while expecting pretax return on equity to be slightly below the 15% baseline by FY '26.

Shareholder Value and Commitment to Capital Returns

With the future in view, Berkeley's updated guidance includes a commitment to deliver ongoing annual shareholder returns of GBP 283 million until September 2025, equivalent to GBP 2.67 per share. Moreover, if new investments remain unfeasible by April '27 owing to stagnant market conditions, Berkeley plans to return the full net profit earned from FY '24 to FY '27 to shareholders. This strategic move aligns with their goal of delivering a 15% pretax return on equity over the cycle.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q2

[Rob Perrins, executive]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Berkeley results presentation for the 6 months ended 31st of October 2023. I am Rob Perrins, Chief Executive of the Berkeley Group. These are a great set of results. Profit before tax is slightly ahead of guidance at GBP 298 million with an operating margin of 19.5%. Net cash has been maintained at above GBP 400 million. This underscores the value of Berkeley's unique long-term operating model. and allows us to add a further year to our guidance, which is now to deliver at least GBP 1.5 billion of pretax profit over the 3 years ending 30th of April 2026.

The sales market, as we know, is cyclical and depends on the feel-good factor. At the moment, it lacks any sense of urgency due to elevated interest rates and macro volatility. Our private sales are 1/3 lower than last year, but sales prices remained stable and build cost inflation is now negligible. Of equal importance, in today's operating environment is the uncertainty in the current planning and regulatory system, which is resulting in delays and increased costs. While we have visibility over the short term, the supply side challenges in our industry are impacting the medium-term outlook, where currently new investment is not viable for a responsible business, which is also facing increased taxation.

We have positioned the business accordingly. This recognizes Berkeley's inherent value, which is rooted in its unrivaled landholdings. But current conditions are impacting the pace at which homes are delivered. We will continue to seek to optimize each of our sites to protect margin and add value. We will run the business efficiently and have reduced operating costs by 10% compared to last year. We will maintain balance sheet strength and be ready to pivot our capital allocation priority to new investment, should the conditions for growth present themselves. Currently, this is not the case and we are not investing in new opportunities. If this continues, we will make additional returns to shareholders.

I will now hand over to Richard Stearn, our Chief Financial Officer, to run through the results.

[Richard Stearn, executive]

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. I will take you through the results today, beginning with a summary and touching on the drivers of revenue and profitability before looking in more detail at the income statement, cash flow and balance sheet, finishing with the land holdings. Beginning with a summary of performance for the period. We have delivered GBP 298 million of pretax profit in the 6 months. This is ahead of both the same period last year and the guidance provided in the September trading update, reflecting a strong finish to the period by our production teams on a number of London sites.

Earnings per share decreased by 1% to 198.3p, with share buybacks largely offsetting the impact of the higher corporation tax rate. The operating margin is unchanged from the comparative period at 19.5%, and our pretax return on equity was 17.7%, which is ahead of our 15% long-term baseline. Looking at the financial position of the group, shareholders' funds or net assets are GBP 3.4 billion, an increase of GBP 82 million in the period, with profit after tax of GBP 212 million, exceeding the shareholder returns in the period of GBP 128 million. Shares in issue, net of treasury and those held in the EBT have reduced by 1.4% to GBP 106 million as a result of the acquisition of 1.7 million shares in the period, undertaken at an average price of GBP 39.01 per share.

As a consequence, net asset value per share has increased by 3.8% to GBP 32.19. Net cash is GBP 422 million up from GBP 410 million at the 30th of April 2023, and higher than guided in the September trading update due to the aforementioned timing of delivery in the year. This slide sets out our two important operational measures of financial strength. First, we have cash due on forward sales covering the next 3 years of $2 billion, only slightly less than at the year-end when it was GBP 2.1 billion. This provides strong visibility on near-term earnings and cash flow. It is underpinned by our customer deposit strategy, whereby we take up to 20% on a staged basis if the customer is purchasing more than 12 months from completion.

As a reminder, this figure represents the cash still to collect on our exchanged private sales only. It is therefore a cash, not a revenue for go. It does not include reservations nor does it include affordable housing contracts or commercial properties and it excludes joint ventures. Approximately 40% of the forward sales relates to the remainder of this financial year and the remainder thereafter. Secondly, the estimated future gross margin in our land holdings is reduced by GBP 384 million to GBP 7.2 billion, largely due to the sales in the period.

This slide highlights the key components of revenue and profitability. We sold 1,785 homes at an average selling price of GBP 624,000 in the first half. This compares to 2,080 at an average price of GBP 560,000 for the first half of last year. As always, the ASP reflects the mix of properties delivered in the period compared to the same period last year as opposed to the underlying sales price movements. In June, I indicated that volumes for FY '24 and FY '25 would be around 8,000 combined were slightly towards FY '25. This remains my expectation. Pricing also remains in line with previous guidance, which was to remain above GBP 600,000 in the current year before reducing below this thereafter.

Today, we have extended our guidance a further year to cover the 3-year period up to the end of FY '26, for which we are targeting the delivery of at least GBP 1.5 billion of pretax profit. Pretax ROE will be above 15% for the period as a whole, although likely to fall slightly below this for FY '26. It's clearly difficult to be more specific in these markets. And as we have said many times, we will always prioritize cash flow and quality of profit ahead of annual profit targets. Our St. Edward joint venture delivered 204 homes in the period at an average selling price of GBP 1.2 million. This compares to 251 sales at an ASP of just over GBP 1 million in the comparative period.

As I have previously indicated, this half year source an effort to deliver the final block at Royal Warwick Square. With the Millbank development also now substantially completed. St. Edward will now predominantly be delivering out of London sites, and the JV profit will be more modest.

Turning now to the income statement and comparing to the last half year. Revenue has decreased by 1% to GBP 1.2 billion, with lower volumes being partially offset by the higher ASP as just set out. Gross profit is GBP 312 million, representing a gross margin of 26.1%. Overheads have decreased by GBP 10 million to GBP 80 million. This has facilitated the operating margin remaining at 19.5%, notwithstanding the reduction in revenue. This is at the top end of the long-term historical average of 17.5% to 19.5%, a strong performance in this current environment. Our net finance income is GBP 5 million compared to a net finance cost of GBP 11 million in the prior half year. With our high cash balances and fixed coupon on the green bond, this reflects average interest rates in the period of 5% compared to 1.5% last time.

The effective tax rate for the period was 29%, which now fully reflects the new corporation tax rate of 25% and a 4% residential property development tax introduced last year. This slide sets out the cash flows for the period, which show an increase in net cash of GBP 12 million to GBP 422 million. GBP 298 million has been generated from pretax profits with a GBP 73 million net increase in working capital. As you can see, the key components within this increase, a GBP 68 million increase in inventory, a GBP 52 million increase in customer deposits and a net GBP 57 million movement in other debtors and creditors. During the period, we paid tax of GBP 88 million. And the other significant item is the GBP 128 million of shareholder returns, which comprises dividend payments of GBP 63 million and GBP 65 million of share buybacks.

I will not dwell on this balance sheet slide as I'm going to run through the 2 key numbers, inventories and creditors, in the next 2 slides. This slide analyzes the GBP 68 million increase in inventories in more detail. The overall land cost in the balance sheet has decreased by GBP 95 million as we have not invested in new land in the period. Build work in progress has increased by GBP 141 million as we have continued steady controlled investment into our existing regeneration schemes to meet our forward sales. Completed stock has increased by GBP 22 million and remains at a relatively low level spread across a number of sites. Creditors have decreased by GBP 12 million in the period, and this slide sets out the offsetting movements. Of note within these is the GBP 52 million increase in deposits and on account receipts. This increase arises from payments on account from institutional investors.

You may have seen the announcement by Long Harbour of their acquisition of the remaining 370 homes at both at park and housing associations rather than on private sales where deposits have reduced slightly in the period. The slide also sets out the payment profile for the GBP 893 million of land creditors. The current year sees very little repayment followed by some GBP 200 million in each of FY '25 and FY '26 with a gentler profile thereafter. Creditors also include provisions of GBP 208 million, largely representing post-completion development obligations including those related to building fast safety matters.

In terms of our financing, the group's borrowing capacity of GBP 1.2 billion is unchanged from the year-end and comprises GBP 400 million of 2031 dated green bonds with a 2.5% coupon. An GBP 800 million banking facility consisting of a GBP 260 million drawn green term loan and a GBP 540 million undrawn revolving credit facility. The bank facilities are in place until February 2028 with an option to extend this to 2029. At the half year, Berkeley was ungeared on a net basis with net cash of GBP 422 million and total available liquidity, therefore, of just over GBP 1.6 billion.

Finally, this slide summarizes our landholdings. Estimated future gross margin is GBP 7.2 billion across 56,000 future homes on 71 sites, down from GBP 7.6 billion and 58,000 plots at 30th of April 2023. Two sites were added to the land holdings in the period, a site for 199 homes in Maidenhead following receipt of planning and sending and a 470 homes, sit every joint venture side in Gilford being transferred from the pipeline following receipt of resolution to grant planning consent in October. In addition, we received planning consent for 550 homes at Paddington Green Police Station adjacent to our West End Gate development in Marylebone and have achieved some 20 amendments to planning consents on existing sites.

There was a net reduction in gross margin of GBP 384 million in the period with just over GBP 400 million taken to profit, the difference is accounted for by the two new sites, planning and market movements, offsetting the cost of regulatory changes, including the accommodation, the second stair cases in buildings over 18 meters. The pipeline now comprises 13,500 plots across 13 sites. Thank you very much. And I will now hand back to Rob.

[Rob Perrins, executive]

Thank you, Richard. I would like to start by looking at the key features of Berkeley strategy and our approach to creating long-term value. I will then look at the current operating environment and its impact on Berkeley. I will conclude by bringing these together to set out our guidance for profitability and our flexible approach to capital allocation. My main message is that while today's operating environment is highly volatile and unpredictable, Berkeley is well placed to navigate this and continue to deliver returns and value for its shareholders. Berkeley's core principles remain the same. We have an unrelenting focus on the Customer, Placemaking and Brand.

We have an added value model that prioritizes enhancing the value of each development. The maps in the appendix set out are sites, including the 32 large brownfield regeneration projects in and around London with over 40,000 future homes still to be delivered under existing planning consents. We prioritize financial strength above annual profit targets. We execute efficiently through motivated, experience and autonomous management teams who have the expertise to deliver the complex projects we undertake at scale. We have established strong relationships over many years and have a hard-earned reputation for delivery. Our Vision 2030 covers the economic, environmental and social value we deliver to all of Berkeley's stakeholders.

These key principles complement the market we operate in. We are focused on London and the Southeast. London is a fantastic global city with deep demand. The appendix sets out the current data on housing supply in London and the Southeast. The chronic shortfall in new homes is structural. We are heavily focused on brownfield development. 86% homes are landholdings are on brownfield developments. This is fundamentally aligned with government and produce the best outcomes for society, the economy and the environment. What we do is highly complex and capital-intensive and there are very high barriers to entry.

Turning now to the operating environment. I will begin with the sales market. Sales rates are down by 1/3 when compared to last year, but we are seeing very good levels of inquiries. The fall in sales rate is a direct result of higher interest rates. We are delighted things now appear to have peaked, and mortgage rates are falling below 5%. Customers are focused on homes closer to completion or more established sites, such as White City and Fulham Reach, where we've seen strong sales on new phase launches. However, sales rates on new sites are back to historic levels. We've had two successful launches in the period at Camden Goods Yards and Broadway East in Bethnal Green, both already securing around 20 sales.

When coupled with our strong forward sales position, these sales rates with stable pricing underpin our business plan targets. In terms of our routes to market, we continue to sell to private customers, both owner occupiers and investors locally and internationally, affordable housing providers and institutional investors across the private rented and retirement living sectors. Our private sales are split broadly 60-40 in favor of own occupiers with the majority of investors green international. Build cost inflation is now at negligible levels across the majority of trades. A number of contractors are under financial pressure, and we're working closely with our supply chain partners to manage any impact on build programs.

There is a very real risk at this point of the cycle of contractor failure. We see it as our responsibility to support the supply chain where possible and continue to pay weekly where required. We are all familiar with the macro events domestically and abroad that continue to impact U.K. business. Alongside this, the house building industry has been adjusting to the combined impact of 5 safety considerations, the increasingly ineffective planning system and changes to regulations across a number of interdependent and complex areas. These factors are deterring new investments, reducing the supply of new homes and significantly affecting small builders. Looking first at planning, we had 3 layers of government all making planning policy, which while largely well intended, often conflict and add incremental burdens.

This has resulted in planning applications now taking nearer 4 years rather than the 2 years they took prior to COVID. At the national level, the proposed changes to the NPPF have meant that many local formalities have put their local plans on hold, resulting in huge uncertainty and delay. The final changes to the NPPF are expected to be announced shortly, which should provide clarity and we hope will include specific provisions to support the government's brownfield-first policy. The Levelling Up Regeneration Act has now come law, but many of the headline policies, such as the infrastructure levy are not expected to come into force for a number of years. In London, the GLA new design guide standards include a number of aspirational targets such as increased homes with dual aspects and homes which are larger.

These cannot all be achieved when coupled with other competing demands, such as affordable housing and sell, but many local authorities are prying these standards as if they were policy rather than guidance.

Turning now to regulation. There are 3 particular areas I'd like to focus on. Firstly, the new building safety regulated powers are now in force. And from April 2024, will require all buildings to pass through the new gateway 2. Berkeley support these changes and are working with a regulator to fully understand all aspects of the requirements with the aim of minimizing any delays and upfront costs. Secondly, the reduction in energy and low carbon emissions required under Part O, L and F of the building regulations will be added to by the introduction of the future home standard in 2025, all of which ad cost and technical complexity. Thirdly, in terms of tall buildings, we're pleased that we now know the height and which buildings will require a second stair case and that there will be a long transition period.

We still await final technical details but believe only a second stand-alone staircase is required as tall buildings are fundamentally safe based upon historic data and particularly given the recent ban on combustible materials and requirements for staircase. On fire safety more broadly, we remain very concerned that the government is still considering plans to introduce an additional building safety levy with a target of raising an additional GBP 3 billion from the industry. In the meanwhile, Berkeley are addressing any life-critical fire safety defects in the buildings it has developed over the last 30 years, in line with the contracted signed with DLA. Berkeley has third-party assessments in place for over 90% of its buildings and has carried out its own risk assessment on the remainder.

Berkeley continues to gauge proactively with the Competitions and Market Authority on its market study. I will now conclude with how we are positioning Berkeley for today's environment. Berkeley's inherent value is rooted in its land holdings. The operating environment is currently impacting the pace at which we deliver the home to our landholdings and therefore, are earning to the medium term. In this context, Berkeley will continue to realize our forward sales over the short term, maintaining strong control over operating costs, matching them to the size of the business, maintaining our operating margin above 17.5%, invest in work in progress on our existing sites in a controlled manner and maintaining balance sheet strength, focusing on cash generation and seeking to preserve and increase value on our existing land holdings and pipeline sites. We are currently working on over 50 planning amendments.

Our updated guidance is set out on this slide. The key feature is that our profit guidance has been extended by one year to incorporate full year 2026. We are targeting to deliver at least GBP 1.5 billion of pretax profit across the 3 years ending 30th April of 2026 while maintaining net cash about GBP 400 million. Beyond the 3-year period, we expect profitability to remain around full year '26 until the planning and regulated environment unlock alongside an inflection in the sales. pocket. Berkeley's ongoing annual shareholder returns of GBP 283 million continued till September 2025, which is currently equivalent to GBP 2.67 per share. We will pay 66p of this as a dividend in 2 equal tranches in March and August each year.

From this point onwards, if the remainder of the scheduled annual return has not been delivered through share buybacks, the balance will be returned in September each year and be accompanied by a share consolidation. This is consistent with the approach taken with the 2021 base share return of capital. Most importantly, Berkeley's well placed to respond quickly and pivot its capital allocation focus to new investment if the conditions for growth materialize. If, however, Berkeley does not undertake any significant new investment by April '27, we'd expect to return 100% of net profit earned across the 4 year period of full year '24 to full year '27 to shareholders. This will ensure we deliver our cross cycle of 15% pretax return on equity.

Thank you very much for your time today, and this concludes Berkeley's interim results presentation.