Activision Blizzard Inc
LSE:0H8X
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one 0H8X stock under the Base Case scenario is 73.81 USD. Compared to the current market price of 94.25 USD, Activision Blizzard Inc is Overvalued by 22%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Activision Blizzard Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Activision Blizzard Inc., a powerhouse in the gaming industry, brings a rich tapestry of iconic franchises and innovative gaming experiences to the market. Founded in 2008 through the merger of Activision and Blizzard Entertainment, the company embodies two worlds: the fast-paced, competitive realm of first-person shooters like "Call of Duty," and the vast, immersive universes of role-playing epics such as "World of Warcraft." This diverse portfolio not only showcases Activision Blizzard's ability to captivate a wide audience but also highlights their strategic position in a rapidly growing industry projected to surpass $200 billion in global revenue. With a focus on high-quality content and...
Activision Blizzard Inc., a powerhouse in the gaming industry, brings a rich tapestry of iconic franchises and innovative gaming experiences to the market. Founded in 2008 through the merger of Activision and Blizzard Entertainment, the company embodies two worlds: the fast-paced, competitive realm of first-person shooters like "Call of Duty," and the vast, immersive universes of role-playing epics such as "World of Warcraft." This diverse portfolio not only showcases Activision Blizzard's ability to captivate a wide audience but also highlights their strategic position in a rapidly growing industry projected to surpass $200 billion in global revenue. With a focus on high-quality content and a commitment to engaging communities, the company is well-equipped to leverage trends such as mobile gaming and esports, making it an attractive option for long-term investors.
As an investor, the company's performance metrics tell a compelling story of resilience and growth. Activision Blizzard has consistently demonstrated strong financial stability, driven by recurring revenue from in-game purchases and subscription services. Their established franchises enjoy a loyal fan base, creating a steady stream of income even during periods of slower game releases. Moreover, with a focus on expanding their gaming ecosystem through strategic acquisitions and collaborations, the company is poised for future growth. As they adapt to new market dynamics and consumer preferences, investing in Activision Blizzard is akin to owning a piece of a modern-day entertainment titan, one that is positioned to thrive in an increasingly digital and connected gaming world.
Activision Blizzard Inc. operates in several core business segments that contribute significantly to its overall revenue and strategic positioning in the gaming industry. The main segments include:
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Activision Publishing:
- This segment focuses on the development and publishing of video games, primarily those in the first-person shooter genre. Key franchises include "Call of Duty," "Skylanders," and "Tony Hawk." The franchise's annual releases and regular updates help maintain player engagement and drive sales.
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Blizzard Entertainment:
- Blizzard is renowned for its immersive game worlds and strong community engagement. This segment includes popular franchises such as "World of Warcraft," "Overwatch," "Diablo," and "StarCraft." Blizzard games often feature robust online multiplayer components and substantial post-launch content updates, contributing to ongoing revenue through subscriptions and in-game purchases.
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King Digital Entertainment:
- Acquired by Activision Blizzard in 2016, King is best known for its mobile gaming titles, particularly "Candy Crush Saga." This segment focuses on mobile and casual gaming, providing a strong foothold in the rapidly growing mobile gaming market. King's games typically monetize through microtransactions and in-game advertising.
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eSports:
- Although not a separate segment, esports is an important part of Activision Blizzard's strategy, particularly through its Overwatch League and Call of Duty League. This segment focuses on developing competitive gaming and a dedicated fan base, generating revenue through advertising, sponsorships, and event ticket sales.
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Licensing and Merchandise:
- Activision Blizzard also generates income through licensing deals for its franchises, including merchandise related to its popular games. This can include clothing, collectibles, and other branded products, expanding the company’s reach beyond gaming.
These segments together position Activision Blizzard as a diverse player in the gaming industry, allowing it to leverage multiple revenue streams and adapt to changing market trends.
Activision Blizzard Inc. has several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals in the gaming industry:
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Strong IP Portfolio: Activision Blizzard boasts some of the most recognizable franchises in gaming, such as "Call of Duty," "World of Warcraft," "Diablo," and "Overwatch." These established intellectual properties (IPs) have a strong fan base and generate consistent revenue through both new releases and ongoing content updates.
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Diversified Revenue Streams: The company effectively monetizes its games through various channels, including game sales, microtransactions, subscriptions, and in-game purchases. This diversification enables it to capitalize on different revenue models, ensuring financial resilience amidst changing market conditions.
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Robust Online Multiplayer Infrastructure: Activision Blizzard has a well-established online gaming ecosystem, particularly with its franchises like "Call of Duty," which promotes engaging multiplayer experiences. This infrastructure not only enhances user engagement but also helps in building a loyal gaming community.
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Strong Focus on E-sports: Activision Blizzard has heavily invested in e-sports, especially with titles like "Overwatch" and "Call of Duty." The company's commitment to this growing market creates additional revenue opportunities through sponsorships, partnerships, and merchandise sales.
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Adaptability and Innovation: The company has shown a willingness to adapt to market trends, such as the shift towards mobile gaming and free-to-play models. Initiatives like "Call of Duty: Warzone" demonstrate its ability to capitalize on popular trends while maintaining existing IPs.
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Global Reach and Market Presence: With a significant global footprint, Activision Blizzard can leverage international markets effectively. This widespread presence allows them to tap into diverse customer bases and generate revenue from various regions.
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Strong Financial Position: The company often enjoys a healthy cash flow, enabling it to invest in new projects, acquisitions, and talent. This strong financial backing provides a competitive edge in terms of research and development.
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Experienced Talent Pool: Attracting and retaining top talent in game development, marketing, and e-sports is a significant advantage. The company's ability to bring together experienced professionals can enhance the quality and innovation of its products.
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Effective Marketing and Branding: Activision Blizzard has a strong marketing strategy that effectively builds anticipation for its releases and engages its audience. Their ability to create a sense of community around their games enhances player retention.
These competitive advantages collectively position Activision Blizzard as a formidable player in the gaming industry, allowing it to maintain and expand its market share effectively.
Activision Blizzard Inc. faces several risks and challenges as it navigates the gaming industry landscape. Here are some key areas of concern:
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Regulatory Scrutiny: The company has been under intense scrutiny from regulators, particularly related to its acquisition attempts, such as the proposed merger with Microsoft. Antitrust laws and potential prohibitions could significantly affect its market position and future growth.
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Competition: The gaming industry is highly competitive, with both established companies and new entrants vying for market share. Competition from rivals like Electronic Arts, Ubisoft, and emerging platforms like mobile gaming can impact user engagement and revenue.
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Changing Consumer Preferences: The gaming landscape is evolving with trends towards mobile gaming, free-to-play models, and subscription services. Activision Blizzard needs to adapt to changing consumer expectations to retain and attract players.
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Content Quality and Development Delays: The gaming industry relies heavily on high-quality content. Delays in game development or the release of subpar products can harm its reputation and financial performance.
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Cybersecurity Threats: As a technology-driven company, Activision Blizzard is susceptible to cyberattacks. Breaches can lead to data loss, disruption, and damage to brand reputation.
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Employee Relations and Culture: Recent controversies related to workplace culture, including allegations of harassment and discrimination, have posed challenges for employee morale and can affect recruitment and retention.
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Economic Conditions: Economic downturns or changes in consumer spending habits can impact discretionary spending on video games, leading to fluctuating revenues.
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Market Saturation: With numerous titles and franchises released, the market could become saturated, leading to diminishing returns on new content and making it more difficult to capture player interest.
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Global Supply Chain Issues: Ongoing global supply chain challenges could impact the availability of gaming hardware, affecting software sales, particularly for new releases that require dedicated consoles.
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Emerging Technologies: The rise of technologies such as VR/AR could disrupt traditional gaming paradigms. Activision Blizzard must invest wisely to stay ahead of technological advancements.
Addressing these risks will be essential for Activision Blizzard to maintain its market position and ensure long-term growth.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Activision Blizzard Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Activision Blizzard Inc
Current Assets | 15.5B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 13.1B |
Receivables | 1B |
Other Current Assets | 1.3B |
Non-Current Assets | 13B |
PP&E | 204m |
Intangibles | 11.1B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 1.8B |
Current Liabilities | 3.3B |
Accounts Payable | 225m |
Accrued Liabilities | 1.2B |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.9B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 4.4B |
Long-Term Debt | 3.6B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 791m |
Earnings Waterfall
Activision Blizzard Inc
Revenue
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8.7B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-2.6B
USD
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Gross Profit
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6.1B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-3.9B
USD
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Operating Income
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2.2B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-71m
USD
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Net Income
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2.2B
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Activision Blizzard Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
0H8X Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Activision Blizzard Inc's profitability score is 64/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Activision Blizzard Inc's profitability score is 64/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
0H8X Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Activision Blizzard Inc's solvency score is 85/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Activision Blizzard Inc's solvency score is 85/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
0H8X Price Targets Summary
Activision Blizzard Inc
Shareholder Yield
Current shareholder yield for 0H8X is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
0H8X Price
Activision Blizzard Inc
Average Annual Return | 12.22% |
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns | 39.37% |
Max Drawdown | -45% |
Market Capitalization | 74.1B USD |
Shares Outstanding | 782 030 000 |
Percentage of Shares Shorted |
N/A
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Profile
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Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Activision Blizzard, Inc. is a developer and publisher of interactive entertainment content and services. The company is headquartered in Santa Monica, California and currently employs 9,800 full-time employees. The firm develops and distributes content and services on video game consoles, personal computers (PC) and mobile devices. Its segments include Activision Publishing, Inc. (Activision), Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. (Blizzard), King Digital Entertainment (King) and Other. Activision delivers content through both premium and free-to-play offerings. The company also includes the activities of the Call of Duty League, a global professional esports league with city-based teams. Blizzard develops and publishes entertainment software for creating games. Blizzard also maintains an online gaming service, Blizzard Battle.net , which facilitates digital distribution of Blizzard content and selected Activision content, online social connectivity, and the creation of user-generated content. King delivers content on the mobile platform. Kings’ product franchise is Candy Crush, a match three franchise.
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The intrinsic value of one 0H8X stock under the Base Case scenario is 73.81 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 94.25 USD, Activision Blizzard Inc is Overvalued by 22%.