LG Energy Solution Ltd

KRX:373220

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Sara Hwang, executive]

[Interpreted] Good morning. This is Sara Hwang, Head of IR from LG Energy Solution. Thank you for joining our Q3, 2023 Earnings Conference Call. First, I would like to introduce for our present today. Lee Chang Sil, CFO, CSO; [ Jung Wooyoung ] in-charge of Finance and Accounting Group; [ Lee Sangyoon ] in-charge of Finance; [indiscernible] in-charge of Planning Management; Kim Dong-Myung, in-charge of Advanced Automotive Battery Planning and Management; [indiscernible] in-charge of Mobility and IT Battery Planning Management; [ Seungse Chang ] in-charge of ESS Battery Planning and Management; [indiscernible] in-charge of Corporate Strategy; and [indiscernible] in-charge of Market Intelligence.

For your reference, the presentation for business performance and strategy will be conducted with a simultaneous interpretation. After which, we will have Q&A with consecutive interpretation. The presentation slide will be webcast live and also downloadable on the corporate website. In this conference call, I'm going to briefly share our business performance of Q3, 2023 and the CFO will explain product competitive strategies, including our excellent plans by EV segment and key initiatives for future growth, followed by Q&A. And please note that the forward-looking statement included in the call are subject to change according to amendments in future business environment and corporate strategies.

First, let me explain our business performance. In Q3, 2023, revenues recorded about KRW 8.2 trillion, supported by production volume growth from GM JV Phase 1, which is ramping up with speed and stable yield of over 90%, we have actively responded to EV demand in North America. However, in addition to EV product and line adjustment from OEMs, the demand in Europe continued to slow down and the declining trend in metal prices in the first half of this year impacted the battery selling prices in this quarter. Thus, the revenue in the third quarter declined 6% Q-o-Q.

Regarding profitability, in spite of lagging consumption of raw material inventories caused by metal price fall, which partially led to the increased cost burden of material expenses. The OP in Q3, 2023, excluding the IRA tax credit effect posted KRW 515.7 billion, up 47% Q-on-Q, thanks to the product mix shift towards higher profitable products, enhanced productivity of new capacity in North America and our efforts to improve efficiencies of major expense items. In the meantime, as previously communicated, as the production and sales volume in North America spend in Q3, the increase of the IRA tax credit effect was close to double Q-on-Q, posting KRW 215.5 billion. The OPM, including the IRA tax credit effect recorded 8.9%, up 3.7 percentage points Q-o-Q.

In nonoperating items, due to foreign currency-related loss such as translation loss from foreign currency-denominated borrowings, nonoperating loss in Q3 came in at around KRW 333 billion. Accordingly, net profit recorded around KRW 420 billion and net profit margin of 5.1%. Next, finical position. The total assets at the end of Q3, 2023 increased by KRW 2.774 trillion from the previous quarter-end to stand at KRW 45.169 trillion, with liability to equity ratio of 83% and net debt-to-equity ratio of 23%.

During the Q3, positive cash flow was generated with around KRW 1.3 trillion of EBITDA generation and around KRW 1.3 trillion of our freshly issued foreign currency-denominated corporate bond, but then with CapEx spending of around KRW 3.5 trillion, the cash balance at the end of the quarter slightly increased compared with the prior quarter-end to reach KRW 4.875 trillion. The CapEx spending on a cumulative basis until Q3 this year recorded about KRW 7.6 trillion, which was mainly executed for investment in new capacity expansion in North America, including GM JV in the U.S. With this -- and also, we are expecting around KRW 10 trillion of CapEx for this year.

This is the end of my presentation. And let me move on to the next part on product competitiveness strategies and key initiatives by CFO.

[Chang Sil Lee, executive]

[Interpreted] Good morning and evening. This is Lee Chang Sil. We understand as price competition for EV has recently intensified among OEMs and expectations are growing for demand in the mid- to low-end EV segment, investors are showing heightened interest in battery packs across the segments. Given that today, I'd like to use this opportunity to explain in detail our strategies and road map for power type product by EV segment and current status of new cylindrical form factor development.

First, strategy for Premium EV segment. To respond to demand in Premium EV segment, the most important battery feature to secure is high energy density. Add to that, more attention is paid to safety and convenient features like charging, especially fast charging within the industry. To offer [indiscernible] values given such customer need, we plan to enhance energy density up to 750-watt hour per liter by 2027 based on high nickel and semi chemistry with higher nickel content increasing from mid- to high 80% to over 90%.

Also by improving thermal management technology through design optimization and developing cooling system at the module and PET level, we are striving for thermal management solutions, which satisfies consumers' needs for EV safety enhancement. To reduce charging time, we are developing differentiated products, adopting silicon anode materials and advancing relevant technology to achieve fast charging in less than 15 minutes. Early this month, we signed a supply agreement with Toyota, global #1 automaker for 20-gigawatt hour per year volume for 10 years with our high capacity, high nickel and NCMA products.

Besides the fact that it is the biggest size of order outside JV partnership, this deal is more meaningful given our endeavor for thermal management technology was recognized in the market as our product strength. And leveraging this outcome with Toyota, we will do our best to get more widely recognized with our product strength and safety and I believe that we can retain our clear leading edge in the Premium EV segment.

Next, strategy for low- to mid-end EV segment. As I mentioned previously, we are aware that the recent spotlight is being on our corporate strategies, especially for the low- to mid-end EV market. The prepared long-term demand growth in this low- to mid EV market, LG Energy Solution has been developing various products equipped with cost advantage along with high energy density. For the mainstream EV market, we would like to focus on high voltage, mid-nickel NCM products. This product has enhanced energy density similar to the level of high nickel NCM, which is enhanced enabled by increasing voltage compared with existing nickel products and cost advantage was achieved with less use of relatively expensive nickel and cobalt.

For such product armed with reasonable price and safety, we're receiving high attention from multiple customers and cost mine solutions for each OEM are currently under development. At the same time, for the affordable market, we are developing LFP-based products together with Manganese-Rich products. As you well know, LFP chemistry has better cost advantage versus NCM. However, has its own limitation of lower volumetric energy density than NCM. Thus, we'd like to combine those strengths of the pouch type for lightweight cell and space utilization others and implement sales structure change and process innovation to produce LFP Manganese-Rich and LMFP-based new product for EV. The time line for such product launch is targeted at 2026 to 2027 and from then on, we plan to expand our product portfolio to respond to the low-end EV market going forward.

Lastly, let me touch upon the current status and production plan for the New Cylindrical Form Factor, 46-series. The cylindrical product is expected to grow at 30% of CAGR until 2030. We are sensing a growing interest from multiple OEMs for the 46-series. To briefly explain the strength for 46-series, the energy capacity can be 5x higher than 2170 and with differentiated cell structure like tablet battery performance and productivity for electronic manufacturing can be further enhanced. Also, given that fixed cost per unit can be reduced with scale merits against 2170, we can gain cost competitiveness.

To cater to customer demand more preemptively in North America for 46-series, a change to what we have communicated in March, we decided to change the product for Arizona plant in the U.S. from 2170 to 46-series. No change for the production plan for ES products -- ESS products in Arizona. With this decision also, the production capacity for EV in Arizona will expand from 27-gigawatt hour to 36-gigawatt hour and the expected start of production remains intact as late 2025. On the other hand, for Ochang in Korea, it will play as a model factory role to maximize product readiness for all cylindrical products, including 46-series prior to overseas production. As previously communicated, we plan to complete the set up of the 46-series pilot line by the year-end. And our preparation for mass production in the second half of the next year is currently on track.

Nanjing plant in China will maintain its role as a main hub for 2170 to respond to EV demand in China and Europe and also diversify product lineups through various new applications, including LEVs. LG Energy Solution has been driving the industry growth as the leader of the global battery suppliers and making our utmost efforts to solidify our fundamental competitiveness. However, the business environment in Q4 and the following year is quite challenging. Globally, interest rates are expected to stay high and consumer sentiment is likely to get contracted due to slowing economic growth.

Overall, we assume that such macro environment may pressure the custom demand. Also, the demand outlook by region has become temporarily more fluid. The situation in North America is linked to the political landscape stemming from the U.S. Presidential Election next year and signal speed adjustment of the OEM's electrification for Europe, the demand for EVs is focused to be weak continuously, and the adoption of certain green policies can be postponed and China is expected to grow at a slower pace due to its already high penetration rate.

However, despite such market condition, LG Energy Solution won't be swayed by ups and downs from the long-term perspective based on the product and technology leadership that I have just outlined. We'll secure clear product competitive edge across all EV segments. Furthermore, by establishing stable raw material sourcing structure and securing cost advantage with the introduction of smart factory will focus on solidifying fundamentals internally, which will help us grow unwaveringly. Also for value chain investment and next-generation battery technology development and others will push forward with 4 key initiatives for future readiness to create growth momentum continuously.

Investors, analysts and our shareholders for continued support and attention that you're showing despite overall environment changes, let us express our gratitude, hoping to go on our journey towards sustainable growth with you. LG Energy Solution will be attentive to your feedback and closely communicate with you at all times.

Thank you. This is the end of our presentation and let us move on to Q&A.

[Chang Sil Lee, executive]

[Operator Instructions] [Foreign Language] The first question will be provided by Cho Chulhee from Korea Investment & Securities.

[Chulhee Cho, analyst]

[Interpreted] This is Cho Chulhee. Now, I have a two-fold question. First is about the company's outlook for the Q4 of this year as well as next year. And the second question is about the impact from the falling metal prices on the company's revenue and profitability.

[Chang Sil Lee, executive]

[Interpreted] This is the CFO speaking, and thank you very much, first, for the good questions. So, then allow me to respond to your question about the outlook for Q4 as well as next year to the best of our understanding at this time point. Now first, about the Q4 of next year, it is true that there is the likelihood of volume adjustment due to some OEM conservative EV production plant. And also the prices of key metals like lithium and nickel have recently turned to decline and which is also likely to affect the battery ASP, although with a time lag.

So having said that, nevertheless, the GM JV Phase 1 production is now entering full ramp-up, placing the company in the position to actively respond to the relatively stable EV demand in the U.S. Seasonal demand for grid scale ESS is expected to go into full swing. So, revenue in Q4 is expected to grow slightly Q-o-Q. And now from a profitability point of view, as was also mentioned by the IR presentation earlier, there is the lagging effect from the metal inventory is going to have some impact on our raw materials cost. So, there is some temporary pressure on raw materials cost and some rising burden, but then the company will not be swayed by each up and down and will focus on cost innovation through improvement in key items and maximizing production efficiency in new capacity.

Now, moving on to 2024 because, of course, we obviously have to prepare for 2024 in terms of the outlook. Then looking at the 2024 global macro environment, then yes, we see that the consumer sentiment has dampened due to slowing growth and high rates. And now let me explain the EV market demand outlook by geography in 2024. First, in North America, the Presidential Election is coming and there's the possibility of some OEMs facing their electrification. In Europe, demand growth continues to slow down and green policies might be delayed. In China, EV penetration rate is already high and the Chinese economy continues to grow very slowly. So, there is also the possibility of slowdown in demand next year.

Now as noted earlier, there is also going to be some impact from this. But then, as I mentioned earlier, the company will not be swayed by each volatility. Although, all of these factors are likely to have some impact on our demand for next year, which means that the revenue growth in 2024 is probably not going to be as brisk as what we have seen this year. But again, we will not be swayed by each volatility and we will maintain a long-term view. We plan to maintain the growth momentum in North America, while focusing on boosting our fundamentals like preparing most competitive products in the market as well as the smart factory, which will give us further edge in productivity as well as cost and continue to secure cost competitiveness. We will keep growing on our inherent competitiveness by steadfastly moving ahead with future readiness such as strengthening of the value chain.

[Unknown Executive]

[Interpreted] And now let me respond to your question about the forces potentially affecting the company's revenue profitability. This is [indiscernible] from Planning and Management. Now metal prices did appear to be stabilizing, but began to fall sharply again in Q3, falling by 70% from the start of the year for lithium and by 35% for nickel. Most of the company's contracts are designed to reflect metal price variations with a time lag and the impact on battery ASP will thus be felt from Q4 to Q1 next year as it goes into decline.

But given the fundamental purpose of metal-linked contracts, which is to increase predictability and ensure consistent profitability, in the long run, the impact of metal price on the company's profitability is minimal as the price is reflected in both the company's costs and ASP, although with a lead time. In addition, from a market demand perspective, the fall in battery price can positively affect demand by enhancing price competitiveness of our customers' EVs.

[Operator]

[Interpreted] The next question will be presented by Dong Jin Kang from Hyundai Motor Securities.

[Dong Jin Kang, analyst]

[Interpreted] I also have 2 questions. Now first, the UAW strike is ongoing. So, how does the company foresee this affecting the company's business in North America? And the second question, now GM also had its earnings release call yesterday, and it also announced that the plan to increase production of certain models is going to be delayed. And I wonder whether this will have an impact on the Ultium JV ramp-up that the company's planning? And then also looking at the GM EV sales today, then what is the company's outlook for the demand?

[Chang Sil Lee, executive]

[Interpreted] This is the CFO responding to your question about the UAW union issues, which I see are the subject of quite a lot of press reports lately. But now please understand that the company cannot give specific comments given that the negotiation between North American OEMs and the UAW is yet to be concluded. So, I understand that things are still going back and forth between the 2 parties. Having said that, our understanding is that the strike is mostly in ICE production lines with little impact on our customers' EV production and sales. And the company's revenue structure is formed in the way that the variations in battery product costs are reflected in the ASP as well, meaning that the company's profitability will be a little affected.

Having said that, if the strike does get prolonged or bigger or if the pay raise is extensive, it could potentially affect OEM's operation and profitability, which could potentially cause a domino effect, which is one point that we are indeed concerned about. But we will keep a close eye and seek various responses. And what we are hearing from the OEMs in our discussions with them is that the 2 sides will have to come to a compromise eventually.

Now, I would like to respond to your question about the impact from delay in EV models production ramp-up. Now, there were news reports last week on 1-year delay in the planned launch of GM certain EV pickup truck models, but it has not affected the company's production and sales plan for this year and next. Phase 1 plant will go into full ramp up this year and Phase 2 we're going to gradual ramp up from early next year as planned. Phase 3 is still under construction and we will strategically adjust the line set up and ramp up depending on the market situation and consumer needs. And as for the EV sales, the customer JV sales in Q3, the company's understanding is that it was around 20,000 units and sales of Ultium platform vehicles are also on the rise by over 30% Q-o-Q. And we see that the EV sales are expected to keep growing.

[Operator]

[Interpreted] The following question will be presented by Hyunryul Cho from Samsung Securities.

[Hyunryul Cho, analyst]

[Interpreted] I also have a 2-part question. The first is about an update on the order backlog. So, can the company provide us with an update? And also, it was mentioned in the presentation and also earlier that there are still quite a lot of macro uncertainties. So, given these macro uncertainties, then what does the company believe will be the possibility of winning new orders?

And the second question is about the update once again about the company's preparation for the 46-series. And also, I remember that in the last time, it was actually called 4680. But given that the company is now calling it 46-series, does this mean that the company now has other customers than the existing customers to be concerned about? And also, does this also signal the company's commitment to continue to diversify its customer base?

[Unknown Executive]

[Interpreted] Now, I would like to respond to the question about the order backlog. This is [indiscernible] in-charge of Planning and Management. The order backlog as of October, including the Toyota contract is over KRW 500 trillion. The specific value will be updated again through the earnings call in Q4. And the question about additional contracts, the company continues its engagements with various counterparts, both new and old. In particular, we are in active discussions with a number of customers on high-voltage mid-nickel for which we will try to lead to new contracts.

[Unknown Executive]

[Interpreted] I would respond to the question about the preparation for the 46 series. This is [indiscernible] in-charge of Mobility and IT Battery Planning and Management. Now, as the CFO explained earlier, the company is trying to preempt the North American demand. And to do so, we have changed the Arizona ramp-up from 2170 to 46-series. Thus, from 2025, we will locally mass produce the products that are eligible for IRA subsidies. But before then, the company is trying to enhance the development outcome of 4680 products in Korea. We will build mass production lines in Ochang within the year with the goal of going into production in the second half of next year.

And not only 4680, we are developing a wide range of 46-series products to fulfill customers' needs. We will first validate volume production with 4680. Based on the proven process and technology, we will then invest into production lines for other variations. And we see that quite a number of EV customers are showing interest in 46-series and the company will be fully prepared to respond to customers' needs in a timely manner.

[Operator]

[Interpreted] The next question will be presented by Woo Cho from HSBC Securities.

[Woo-Hyung Cho, analyst]

[Interpreted] I also have 2 questions about the demand for auto batteries and the mobility and IT batteries each. First, about the auto batteries. Now, there is -- there are concerns about slowing demand in auto batteries. And in fact, some of the OEMs in the EU and the U.S. are also seem to be adjusting their production volume due to sluggish demand. So, I wonder what kind of impact this would have on the company? And then also in terms of the power tools as well. So, this is about the mobility and IT batteries. And so there are also concerns about the slowdown in the cylindrical batteries for power tools as well.

[Unknown Executive]

[Interpreted] This is [indiscernible] in-charge of Automotive Battery Planning and Management, responding to a question about concerns over EV demand and the company's utilization adjustment. Yes. As the CFO has given quite a lot of details about the market, there are appeared to be a high likelihood of soft demand for EVs, especially in the European market due to customers underperforming EV sales versus target and production adjustment as well as moves to defer battery purchase based on the projected decline in battery ASP following changes in the metal price and signs of Chinese low-end EVs entering the European market.

Thus, based on this, the company has adjusted part of our production volume by optimizing utilization in Poland and are trying to minimize inventory burden. And we do have the minimum safeguard in place such as the contract structure with volume guarantee, but we are closely reviewing and discussing demand and supply with our European customers to ensure optimum demand response. We will take no possibilities off the table regarding external uncertainties and respond flexibly and minimize impact on our performance.

[Unknown Executive]

[Interpreted] This is [indiscernible] in-charge of Mobility and IT Battery Planning and Management to respond to your question about the demand for cylindrical products. Now, it is understood that there are some concerns over the customers' Q3 EV sales under shooting market consensus and the possibility of adjusting the EV sales target due to economic downturn and high rates. It has temporarily affected the company's shipment in Q3. And as the questioner also asked about this, the demand for power tools has also slowed due to economic downturn.

So, we are closely watching the market and will flexibly operate our production and supply accordingly. But on looking ahead, cylindrical demand is expected to recover from early next year after the customers' production upgrade is complete and new models are launched and new opportunities are also expected in new applications like LED.

[Operator]

[Interpreted] The last question will be presented by Bo Young Choi from Kyobo Securities.

[Bo Young Choi, analyst]

[Interpreted] Now, my first question is about the graphite control. The Chinese government recently announced that it is going to much strongly tighten graphite exports starting in December. So, I wonder what the company is planning to do in order to respond to this change. And the second question is about the ESS. So, the demand for the home usage is falling and also there is the grid project. So, now there are expectations that there is going to be some improvement in Q4. So, what is the company's outlook? And then also regarding the LFP supply. So, I wonder if you could also provide us with an update on the LFP supply chain plan impact.

[Unknown Executive]

[Interpreted] This is [indiscernible] in-charge of Market Intelligence, responding to your question about the graphite export control. Now, on October 20, the Chinese government officially designated graphite as export control material, although it had already been under temporary control. And not just the artificial graphite, which is under control, but then now it has been expanded to natural graphite as well. So, it announced that export regulation and management of graphite will become tighter as of December 1, but this is not an export ban altogether, but had a requirement for export approval. The company is internally discussing how to address the issue and will undertake necessary actions. We will also secure some inventory early to respond to risks.

[Unknown Executive]

[Interpreted] Now, this is [indiscernible] from the ESS Battery Planning and Management responding to your question about ESS performance and the LFP supply chain plan. Now first, about the ESS outlook in Q4. Revenue growth and profitability improvement are expected Q-o-Q from the large volume supply to power grid that is planned. And then next is about the plan for LFP supply chain. LFP cell production began in Q3, 2023 in the company's China lines and LFP-based revenue mix is expected to rise from 2024. And from 2026, we will respond to the grid demand in North America by volume producing 60-gigawatt hour of LFP long cell products in Arizona. And about the supply chain, the company is looking into sourcing key materials from non-Chinese regions and North America to avoid the high retaliatory tariff on Chinese materials.

[Sara Hwang, executive]

[Interpreted] Thank you very much. That brings us to the end of the 2023, Q3 earnings conference call of LG Energy Solutions. Thank you very much for your attention and participation.

[Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]