CJ CheilJedang Corp

KRX:097950

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Seong Jun, executive]

Ladies and gentlemen, I'm Jun Seong, Head of IR team at Corporate Finance. We will now begin the third quarter 2024 business results report for CJ Cheiljedang. Today's session will be interpreted simultaneously into English for foreign investors.

Let me first introduce the CJ team. Today, we have: Mr. Kyoung Suk Kan, Head of Corporate Finance; Mr. [indiscernible], Head of Food Korea Business Planning; Mr. Kim Jung-Ho, Team Lead of Global Food Business Planning; Mr. Kim Jang Young, Head of Bio business Planning; and Mr. [indiscernible], Head of Feed&Care Business Planning.

Mr. Chan will first walk you through the business results, followed by progress on key strategy execution and outlook by respective presenters. We will then move on to Q&A session.

[Kyoung Suk Kang, executive]

Ladies and gentlemen, I'm Kyoung Suk Kang, Head of Corporate Finance for CJCJ. I will first walk you through the business results of Q3 2024, followed by performance analysis by business, key indicator analysis and key strategy execution and outlook.

Please refer to Slide 5. OP grew slightly in Q3 of 2024, as falling margin of Food Korea was offset by OP growth of Food Global, Bio and F&C. For Food Korea, Online sales of packaged foods grew 17%, offsetting sluggish sales of off-line channels such as hypermarket.

For the U.S., core products such as dumpling, pizza and rolls showed solid growth. In addition, sales expansion was driven by mainstream channel entries and category expansion in Europe coupled with strong growth of dumpling in Oceania.

In the third quarter, GSP achieved double-digit growth driven by solid performance of dumpling, roll, frozen rice, and sauce and seasoning in the global market. For Bio, sales of high-margin products such as tryptophan, feed-grade arginine and TasteNrich increased year-on-year, leveraging market dominance. Feed & Care continued OP improvement by enhancing business structure of feed business and livestock productivity despite low seasonal issue. Please refer to the next slide.

Next is corporate performance for the third quarter of 2024. First is performance excluding CJ Logistics. Sales was KRW 4.62 trillion, as Food Global and Bio offset the decrease of FI, Food Ingredients and F&C.

OP was KRW 276.4 billion, thanks to margin growth of Food Global, Bio and F&C despite a nonfavorable business environment in Korea. Net profit fell due to the impact of nonoperating balance recorded KRW 141.6 billion. When we include CJ Logistics, sales for the third quarter was KRW 7.414 trillion, which is 0.4% lower year-on-year, and OP was KRW 416.2 billion, which is 5.1% higher year-on-year.

Next is Slide 8. Let me walk you through performance by business units. First is food business units. Sales fell by 1% year-on-year. Though Korea, China and Japan were hit by slowed economy and consumption trends, sales for core products like bibigo increased in the U.S. and Europe. OP is KRW 161.3 billion year-on-year, fell by 31% year-on-year.

Despite margin improvement upwards in Japan and continued growth in Europe, OP fell due to sluggish volume for Food Korea, coupled with SG&A increase and delayed turnaround for business in China. Please refer to the next slide.

Next is sales detail for Food business. Food Korea achieved sales of KRW 1.569 trillion, with 6% decrease year-on-year. Packaged Foods offset the decline of off-line retail market hit by sluggish demand with growth in certain channels and products. However, sales for FI fell due to the projected unfavorable market environment, coupled with profit-driven operation of cooking oil business.

Food Global delivered KRW 1.403 trillion, grew by 5% year-on-year. For the U.S., sales for core products continued to grow, including dumpling, pizza and roll. For other markets, sales fell in China and Japan due to weak consumer sentiment, but decreasing rate has slowed down, thanks to the implementation of select and focused strategy for channel and product mix.

Europe executed new territory expansion in Southern and Northern Europe along with expanded categories for distribution. For Oceania, dumpling continued solid growth by expanding distribution at mainstream channel.

In summary, GSP including dumpling, roll, frozen rice, sauce and seasoning categories in the global market delivered solid growth of 14%. When you refer to the chart on the next slide, OP margin for Food BU as of third quarter of 2024 is 5.7%, excluding Schwan's PPA and 5.4%, including Schwan's PPA.

Next, Slide 11. Next is Bio business unit. Sales increased by 1% year-on-year as the growth of high-margin and specialty products such as tryptophan, feed grade arginine and TasteNrich offset the protracted slowdown of amino acid market.

OP was KRW 84.2 billion (sic) KRW 82 billion grew by 75% year-on-year. Thanks to growing sales of high-margin products such as tryptophan and arginine, along with the base effect of stronger performance of Selecta SPC.

On the next slide, sales share of specialty products takes up 22% as of third quarter of 2024. Next is Slide 13.

Next up is Feed & Care. As volume and price for feed declined year-on-year, total sales fell by 5% delivered KRW 578.9 billion. However, thanks to continuous improvement in livestock productivity based on the impact of structural improvement, OP turned positive year-on-year, recorded KRW 32.7 billion.

For feed business, though sales fell due to lower price affected by falling grain price, we managed to maintain OP by enhancing business structure and operational excellence.

For Lifestyle business, though price in Vietnam remained flat against previous quarter due to monsoon season and vegetarian months, margin continued to increase, thanks to efforts to cost COGM, including productivity improvement. Demand in Indonesia is still weak due to seasonal effects, coupled with falling margin due to the base effect of last year when the Indonesian government enforced policy to control supply.

Slide 15. Next up is CJ Logistics performance. CJ Logistics sales for the third quarter increased by 1% year-on-year by establishing structure for sustainable growth through tax-driven productivity innovation and outstanding logistics competency. OP increased by 14% year-on-year, reached KRW 141.6 billion.

Next up, is SG&A and nonoperating balance excluding CJ Logistics. First is SG&A. Wages and advertising increased KRW 15.3 billion and KRW 10.1 billion, respectively, and transportation costs decreased by KRW 6.6 billion. All in all, SG&A increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. Non-operating balance recorded negative KRW 93.5 billion, fell by KRW 49.1 billion year-on-year.

Next is Slide 19. Let me skip this slide, SG&A and nonoperating balance, including CJ Logistics.

Next, let me provide an update on the progress of key strategies and outlook. First, key performance from Global Food markets. In the U.S., our major brands in dumpling and pizza are outpacing market growth driven by our #1 position and strong brand power.

In grocery channel, the bibido dumpling sales grew 33% through Q3 2024, more than twice the market growth rate. And Red Baron pizza is also maintaining solid growth in the stagnant pizza market.

In Europe, we're continuing rapid growth through expanding sales in existing markets and entering new ones. Notably, outside our main markets like the U.K., Germany and the Netherlands, we achieved 71% growth in 2023 and accumulative 59% growth through Q3 2024.

In Japan, we adjusted meter inventory level but strong sales of DASIDA and frozen rice helped slow the sales decline compared to last year, laying the foundation for a turnaround from Q4 this year.

Let me move on to Bio business unit to cover the trends and outlook for bulky amino acid and TnR. As for bulky amino asset like lysine, prices are rebounding due to improvements in downstream industry and local markets. Sales are expected to grow with diversified formats.

In particular, with the recovery of peak forming profitability in China, the number of peaks raise is on the rise. And given the supply situation in each market, lysine is expected to benefit from a favorable pricing environment.

Specialty products like arginine, TasteNrich focused on diversifying demand by enhancing tech marketing and developing customized products. For arginine, we appeal a range of benefits like stress relief, leveraging tech marketing to drive year-on-year sales growth. As for TnR, we expect sales to rise as new demand expands our customer base.

Moving on to the progress of our sustainability efforts. CJ Cheiljedang published the Annual Sustainability Report in Q3 to enhance communication with various stakeholders. The main objective of the report is to share our ESG management results and performance with external stakeholders.

This year, we focused on four core elements of ESG frameworks, including governance, risk management, strategy and indicator and goals, all reflected to key themes like climate response, resource circulation and sustainable supply chain. In addition, to increase the integrity of ESG data, we ensure data consistency and accuracy. We expanded the disclosure scope from 24 subsidiaries last year to 33 this year, and we plan to disclose on a consolidated basis moving forward.

Let me outline the key directions for CJCJ sustainable management framework. First, we will integrate global ESG purposes to comply with ESG regulations, both in and out of Korea, while rolling out Korea's ESG management framework to our global sites.

In 2023, we checked on the progress of ESG initiatives in our major sites, including the U.S. and China and provided training on management practices. Second, to establish a transparent disclosure process and strengthened risk management, we will prioritize climate response, analyze financial impacts and develop an internal carbon pricing policy. Also, we will effectively respond to regulations on human rights and environment by implementing ESG management processes across global sites and throughout the entire supply chain.

Moving now to the outlook for Q4 2024. As for Food in Korea, strategic launch of new products, early shipment of gift sets for New Year's holiday and expanded sales of seasonal products are expected to drive performance improvement. Additionally, growth is expected from online channel expansion of popular products like Sobaba and whole shrimp Mandu, resumption of Coupang 1P business and the recovery of cooking oil sales.

In Global Markets, despite intensifying competition for key products, we expect to maintain the highest market share and increased sales while continuing to improve performance based on channel expansion and key products like Sobaba, kimchi and seaweed. In Europe and Australia, we expect to keep growing fast based on entry into new market and mainstream channels, category expansion and exploration of new territories, such as in-flight meal market.

In China, the decline in growth is expected to slow as we address the base effect of TSG. In Japan, we anticipate a turnaround to sales growth, thanks to the business structure innovations, including inventory level adjustments.

For Bio, amidst favorable market conditions, lysine is expected to recover in full force in Europe and North America, with new demand for TnR and the base effect of Selecta, we expect to see continued sales growth. If the Chinese economy rebounds, there could be a positive impact on amino asset for feed and nucleotide.

As for Feed & Care, with the demand increase at the year-end and recovering lifestyle prices, we expect to see improved performance by boosting feed sales based on product competitiveness and tech marketing. Also, by improving stock breeding productivity and optimizing operations, we will enhance cost competitiveness and profitability.

All in all, the corporate level sales growth in Q4 is expected to be in the low to mid-single digits and operating profit to be 5% to 6%.

That concludes today's presentation. We will now move on to the Q&A session.

[Operator]

Korean questions will be interpreted simultaneously, while English questions will be interpreted consecutively. [Operator Instructions] First is Mr. Kim Jung Wook from Meritz Securities.

[Jungwook Kim, analyst]

So I have a question about packaged food. I think you'll manage it to defend sales, but we are seeing falling sales for Food Ingredients, so please elaborate on that. And for food business, we can see margin is falling significantly, so please elaborate on profitability part.

And in addition to that, Food, our performance was not that great in September. So please share your forecast for October and November. And for the third quarter, steel demand will be weakened. So is there any kind of strategy and execution plan to overcome this kind of slowdown trend?

And next question is about Bio. Regarding Bio, other than specialty products, you have other amino acid following lysine. So could you share the market trend? And please elaborate on profitability improves. Does [indiscernible], Selecta and other products? And please elaborate on that, too.

[Kyoung Suk Kang, executive]

Okay. Let me elaborate on the Food business. For Food Ingredients, the major cause of falling performance, falling sales for the third quarter is products like beverage or confectionery or bakery categories. They are affected by low sugar trend. So we can see volume is falling for those businesses. So that's why our sugar business struggled.

And for cooking oil category, so we shifted our focus for profitability. So that's why, strategically, sales fell but profit was improved. So that's why FY was suffered by falling sales for the third quarter.

So we try to improve profitability, but during holiday season, Chuseok holiday season, many people went overseas trip. So that's why we saw falling demand. So that's why we could not deliver sales as much as we expected. So we were faced with reverse growth compared against last year, and OP was also hit by this trend.

So all in all, we were hit by economic slowdown. So we reduced our spend from cost for promotion and marketing to overcome the situation, and it will be impacted for the third -- fourth quarter. So we are trying to overcome this kind of trend.

So for October and November, we expect that we turn around and sale is expected to grow. However, still, we are seeing some reverse growth for FI. But for packaged food, we are seeing that sales start to increase again.

Next is about Bio. So most of these products like arginine and tryptophan, we are trying to increase sales and opening up new territory. At the same time, for Chinese competitors, more of them are entering the market. So we are going to offer pricing strategy to tackle this kind of situation. However, CJCJ, we are going to increase capacity for specialty products. So we are going to increase supply.

On the other hand, lysine, those are bulky amino acids. When we consider exit of Ajinomoto in the U.S., I think we are forecasting more growth in the U.S. And due to antidumping for American products -- Chinese products in America, I think we can expect better growth in the American market as well.

So for profitability about bio-specialty products, we cannot share the detail of each category or by each product. But when it comes to specialty products, centering on arginine products, we expect that we are going to achieve higher margin compared against other products. And adding on to that, products like tryptophan or lysine we can have higher margin. Of course, our tryptophan delivered the highest margin in products like nucleic assay like TasteNrich, they are also delivering high margin. So please continue, next question.

[Operator]

There is no one in the line for questions. [Operator Instructions] Next question is from Mr. Park Sang-Jun from Kiwoom Securities.

[Sang-Jun Park, analyst]

I have two questions. First, in the U.S. Food business, the OP margin has declined a little bit. So far, when we think about PPA and profitability, you showed pretty good performance. But in the Q4 forecast, when I look at the material, there are some changes in the competition landscape.

So please elaborate on the current status? And how you will respond to the competition, which will be intensifying? And how you will respond to the future situation in the U.S. food business?

And second question is about amino acid. In the U.S., after the U.S. presidential election, there are some discussions around the tariff. And as Trump was officially elected, there could be some impact on the tariffs. So please elaborate on that.

[Unknown Executive]

For Food U.S. business regarding the OP decline in Q3, the OP in the U.S. declined in line with the competition intensifying, and there were some rev reduction increase, and there were some increases in raw ingredient costs, including cheese prices. But the competition is expected to maintain for a while.

But in Q4, competitors, we have to look at the trends of the competition and our U.S. team will agilely respond to the competition. And additionally, we're going to make some efforts to reduce costs so that we can defend our profitability.

And in addition, for B2C, competition is intensifying. So the promotions and discounts are on the rise. But for B2B, the discounts are now declining, and we are increasing some prices. So we were able to improve the profitability to offset the B2C decline. So with that balanced business structure, we were able to expand Asian portfolio, and the profit structure in Schwan is now stabilizing, thanks to our efforts.

And the next question about the U.S. presidential election, the President-elect Trump and the impact from that. Well, as he promised that export tariffs is expected to grow. But for CJCJ, we have dumpling and pizza products. Our major products are manufactured on a local site in the U.S. So there will be not that significant impact in the U.S.

And for Bio as well our -- the competitors in the U.S. are exporting to the U.S. But for us, we have our own plant in the U.S., so we do not have any risk related to that. And if there is any significant increase in tariffs to China, we can benefit from that.

[Operator]

Moving on to the next question. Next is Kim Jung Wook from Meritz Securities.

[Jungwook Kim, analyst]

So when we look at the documents, so pizza for the global market, of course, our Red Baron is growing compared against market trends. But I can see the growth rate slowdown for frozen category, which grew only by 1%. So is there any issue with pizza business? Or is there a kind of slowdown for consumption for frozen pizza in the U.S.? Please elaborate on that.

And second is that Selecta's performance. And it will be reflected for the fourth quarter performance as well. So please share performance of Selecta for Bio. And next is about other expenses, about our balance sheet. Please elaborate on that too.

[Unknown Executive]

For Global Food business, I would like to elaborate on the America market first. Not only pizza growth, but frozen category overall is also struggling in the U.S. So to overcome this trend, we are going to expand our Asian categories for our frozen category, and it is delivering very good growth compared against the category.

So as we continue to see some inflation in the U.S., consumers have some burden for increasing price. So that's why volume decreased. But our forecast is that we hope that U.S. consumption trends will improve and our business will be also positively impacted.

Next is about Selecta. So in 2022, performance was great, but there were like overstocking of warehouses. So that's why performance slowed down afterwards. But the price of raw materials started to fall and like warehouse stocks started to decrease. So that's why our performance is getting improved. So we are improving our profitability.

So we forecast that the fourth quarter this year for Selecta, we expect that our profitability will continue to be improved especially like soybean oil, which is our core product for Selecta. Margin is getting improved, so we expect that the fourth quarter will be much better than that of the third quarter.

Okay. Next is about nonoperating balance. So you mentioned about our other expenses. So the number seems to decrease. That's because [ Tsang ] are base effect. So please consider that. And the cost was about KRW 150 billion for last year. So when we exclude that, I think we cannot say that other expenses got worse. It's just because of the base effect.

Is there any question from the floor?

[Operator]

Next question is from Mr. Park Sang-Jun from Kiwoom.

[Sang-Jun Park, analyst]

I have two more questions. First, well, when we look at the overseas, the Global Food market, excluding Tsang, it's 7% and dumpling, pizza and global GP and European growth. When we think about all those, the organic growth is a little bit weaker than the numbers that you provided before. So any reasons behind this so that you are seeing some weaker performance than expected numbers?

And the second question is about the U.S. pizza market. The competition is expected to maintain, as you mentioned. Any -- when we look at the competitors, major competitors discounts for promotions. Excluding those, any kind of new categories or new products are expected to be launched? Please elaborate on that.

[Shin-Ho Kang, executive]

For global sales for Food, out of the total global market sales, we wanted to look at GSP products. We are now expanding GSP products. And when we look at the mix of the sales, U.S. is accounting for more than half. And in the U.S. market, pizza is taking up a big portion. So other GSP products are growing fast, but still compared to pizza their performance seem a little bit weaker.

And another factor is that in the China and Japan region, we are still turning around. So there are some declines, so there are some impact from that on the global sales.

And on the pizza market in the U.S., about the trends in the pizza market, as far as we have identified there are not specific strategic changes, including new product development or new product categories other than promotions.

So given the time available, we will take one final question.

[Operator]

Next up is Kim Jung Wook from Meritz Securities.

[Jungwook Kim, analyst]

My last question is about online. So I think online will overcome and offset falling demand for off-line. And I can see the growth is getting better from online. So please elaborate on that. And please also share profitability of online business compared against brick-and-mortar business.

[Unknown Executive]

So shares for our online business will increase in the third quarter and even increase compared to gain that of last year. So share for online will continue to grow. We expect mid-double-digit higher than 15%.

And regarding our profitability, we are not sharing profitability by channel. However, online channel is growing significantly compared to other types of platforms. So I think we can get our economy of scale and profitability will be improved.

So we will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your time.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]