Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS
IST:TUPRS.E
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one TUPRS.E stock under the Base Case scenario is 136.32 TRY. Compared to the current market price of 146.4 TRY, Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is Overvalued by 7%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Fundamental Analysis
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Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS, commonly known as Tupras, is Turkey's leading oil refining company, playing a crucial role in the nation's energy sector since its establishment in 1974. With its headquarters in Kocaeli, Tupras operates four refineries strategically located across Turkey, giving it a commanding presence in the Mediterranean region. Serving both domestic and international markets, the company processes crude oil into a wide array of petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, meeting the ever-growing energy demands of an expanding economy. Tupras is not just a major player in Turkey; it is integral to the country's energy security and independence, positionin...
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS, commonly known as Tupras, is Turkey's leading oil refining company, playing a crucial role in the nation's energy sector since its establishment in 1974. With its headquarters in Kocaeli, Tupras operates four refineries strategically located across Turkey, giving it a commanding presence in the Mediterranean region. Serving both domestic and international markets, the company processes crude oil into a wide array of petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, meeting the ever-growing energy demands of an expanding economy. Tupras is not just a major player in Turkey; it is integral to the country's energy security and independence, positioning itself as a critical component in the global energy supply chain.
From an investment perspective, Tupras presents a compelling opportunity, particularly as Turkey seeks to enhance its energy infrastructure and decrease reliance on imported energy. With a strong commitment to sustainability, Tupras is actively involved in projects aimed at reducing carbon emissions and increasing the efficiency of its operations. The company's robust financial performance, underpinned by its diversified product portfolio and significant market share, showcases its resilience amidst fluctuating crude oil prices. As global energy dynamics evolve, Tupras stands poised to capitalize on the ongoing transition towards cleaner energy solutions while maintaining its pivotal role in the refinery sector, making it an attractive option for investors looking to tap into the burgeoning energy landscape of both Turkey and the wider region.
TĂĽrkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.Ĺž. (TUPRAS) is a significant player in the Turkish energy sector, primarily involved in petroleum refining and related activities. Here are the core business segments of TUPRAS:
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Refining Operations: TUPRAS operates several oil refineries, which are the heart of its business. These facilities process crude oil into various petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and asphalt. The refining segment plays a crucial role in meeting the domestic fuel demands of Turkey.
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Petroleum Products Marketing: This segment focuses on the marketing and distribution of refined petroleum products. TUPRAS sells its products through a network of distributors and retail outlets, ensuring accessibility across the country.
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Petrochemical Production: TUPRAS is also involved in the production of petrochemical products, which are derived from refined fossil fuels and used as raw materials in various industries, including plastics and chemicals.
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Energy Generation: The company generates some of its own energy needs through co-generation and other means, contributing to operational efficiency and reducing energy costs.
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Research and Development: TUPRAS invests in R&D to enhance refining technologies, improve product quality, and develop more efficient processes, which is essential for maintaining competitiveness in the industry.
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Environmental Management: This segment focuses on ensuring compliance with environmental regulations and implementing initiatives aimed at reducing the ecological impact of refining operations.
By maintaining a diversified approach across these segments, TUPRAS aims to stabilize its revenue streams and position itself favorably within Turkey's energy landscape.
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS, also known as Tupras, holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the oil refining sector. Here are some key points:
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Strategic Location: Tupras is strategically located in Turkey, a critical crossroads for energy supply between Europe and Asia. This geographic advantage allows for efficient transportation and distribution of refined products to key markets.
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Refinery Capacity: As the largest oil refiner in Turkey, Tupras operates multiple refineries with significant processing capacity. This scale allows the company to benefit from economies of scale, reducing per-unit costs and enabling it to better absorb fluctuations in crude oil prices.
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Diverse Product Portfolio: Tupras produces a wide range of refined petroleum products, including premium fuels, petrochemicals, and specialty products. This diversity helps mitigate risks associated with demand fluctuations in specific product lines.
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Strong Relationships with Crude Oil Suppliers: Tupras has established long-term relationships with various crude oil suppliers, enabling it to secure reliable and potentially lower-cost feedstock.
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Investment in Technology and Innovation: Tupras invests in modern refining technologies and processes that improve efficiency and reduce environmental impact. This commitment to innovation positions the company well amidst increasing environmental regulations and shifts toward sustainability.
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Robust Distribution Network: The company has a well-developed distribution network, including pipelines, terminals, and fuel stations. This extensive infrastructure ensures that its products reach customers efficiently and effectively.
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Market Position and Brand Recognition: As a leading player in the Turkish market, Tupras enjoys strong brand recognition that can enhance customer loyalty and trust in its products, which is a significant advantage in the competitive oil market.
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Government Support: Being a significant player in an essential industry, Tupras can benefit from favorable government policies and support, which may include regulatory advantages or access to incentives.
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Environmental and Safety Standards: Tupras places a strong emphasis on maintaining high environmental and safety standards, which can enhance its reputation and mitigate risks associated with regulatory compliance.
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Financial Resilience: As a well-established company, Tupras often has access to better financing options, allowing it to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns more effectively than smaller competitors.
These advantages combine to create a robust competitive position for Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS in the oil refining market, making it a formidable player in the industry.
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (Tupras) faces several risks and challenges in the near future, particularly given the dynamic nature of the energy sector and global economic conditions. Some of these include:
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Regulatory Changes: The energy sector is heavily regulated, and any changes in energy policies, environmental regulations, or tax laws in Turkey or in the EU may affect operations and profitability.
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Market Volatility: Fluctuations in crude oil prices can significantly impact margins. If prices rise, sourcing crude may become more expensive, whereas a drop in prices may reduce revenues if the company is unable to lower costs proportionately.
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Geopolitical Risks: The geopolitical landscape in the region can impact supply chains and operational stability. Conflicts or diplomatic tensions, particularly in oil-producing regions, can lead to supply disruptions.
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Competition: Increased competition from domestic and international refineries may put pressure on Tupras's market share and profitability. The entry of new players or expansions by existing competitors can heighten this challenge.
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Transition to Renewable Energy: A global shift towards renewable energy sources and electric vehicles could reduce demand for traditional refining products. Tupras will need to adapt to this transition or risk reduced relevance.
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Environmental Concerns: Growing awareness and regulatory scrutiny regarding environmental impacts impose challenges on traditional oil and gas operations. Tupras may face pressure to invest in cleaner technologies or offset carbon emissions.
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Currency Fluctuations: As a company that may import crude oil and export refined products, fluctuations in the Turkish Lira against other currencies can impact profitability, especially if revenues are denominated in stronger currencies.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain challenges, exacerbated by events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can affect the availability and cost of raw materials. This includes delays in shipping, shortages of skilled labor, and logistical issues.
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Technological Changes: Keeping up with technological advancements in refining processes and digitalization is crucial to remain competitive. Failing to innovate may result in higher operational costs and diminished efficiency.
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Operational Risks: As with any industrial operation, Tupras faces risks related to safety, accidents, and equipment failures that can lead to shutdowns and financial losses.
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Economic Conditions: Broader economic trends, such as inflation and recession, can impact energy demand and consumer behavior, which in turn influences Tupras’s sales and operational stability.
To mitigate these risks, Tupras should focus on diversifying its product offerings, investing in renewable energy technologies, and enhancing operational efficiencies to adapt to the rapidly changing energy landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS
Current Assets | 211.8B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 74B |
Receivables | 47.7B |
Other Current Assets | 90.2B |
Non-Current Assets | 206.3B |
Long-Term Investments | 10.3B |
PP&E | 167.3B |
Intangibles | 5.2B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 23.5B |
Current Liabilities | 176.4B |
Accounts Payable | 115.3B |
Accrued Liabilities | 2.2B |
Short-Term Debt | 995m |
Other Current Liabilities | 57.9B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 9.4B |
Long-Term Debt | 2.9B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 6.6B |
Earnings Waterfall
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS
Revenue
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859.4B
TRY
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Cost of Revenue
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-749.4B
TRY
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Gross Profit
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110B
TRY
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Operating Expenses
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-34.1B
TRY
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Operating Income
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75.9B
TRY
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Other Expenses
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-30.9B
TRY
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Net Income
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45B
TRY
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS
TRY | |
Free Cash Flow | TRY |
In Q3 2024, TĂĽpras faced a significant decline in EBITDA, recording TRY 15.1 billion, down from TRY 49.6 billion a year prior, mainly due to weakened crack margins. However, the company showcased resilience with a net profit of TRY 7.7 billion and celebrated its highest capacity utilization since 2019 at 101.4%. Gasoline sales soared by 18%, driven by rising domestic demand. Management reaffirmed its guidance for 2024, maintaining crack margin expectations at $12 per barrel, alongside projected production and sales of approximately 26 million and 30 million tons, respectively. TĂĽpras remains committed to returning value to shareholders, having distributed dividends totaling TRY 43 billion for the year.
What is Earnings Call?
TUPRS.E Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS's profitability score is 78/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS's profitability score is 78/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
TUPRS.E Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS's solvency score is 74/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS's solvency score is 74/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
TUPRS.E Price Targets Summary
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TUPRS.E is 202.18 TRY with a low forecast of 85.75 TRY and a high forecast of 267.12 TRY.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for TUPRS.E is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS engages in the business of oil refinery. Its refineries produce a full range of refined petroleum products, including diesel, fuel oils, jet fuel, gasoline and asphalt. The Group also imports and sells petroleum products and engages in the distribution, retailing and marine transportation of crude oil and refined products. The company is mainly engaged in the following fields: to provide and refine crude oil, to import and export petroleum products, and to establish and operate domestic and foreign refineries for this purpose; to establish and operate factories and facilities in petrochemical and other related industries; to establish and operate facilities and plants related with energy and energy related industries, as well as to purchase, sell, import, export, store, market and distribute petroleum products, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and natural gas, among others.
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Officers
The intrinsic value of one TUPRS.E stock under the Base Case scenario is 136.32 TRY.
Compared to the current market price of 146.4 TRY, Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS is Overvalued by 7%.