Turk Hava Yollari AO
IST:THYAO.E
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one THYAO.E stock under the Base Case scenario is 321.09 TRY. Compared to the current market price of 279.5 TRY, Turk Hava Yollari AO is Undervalued by 13%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Turk Hava Yollari AO
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Fundamental Analysis
Economic Moat
Turk Hava Yollari AO
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Turk Hava Yollari AO, commonly known as Turkish Airlines, stands as a pillar in the global aviation landscape. Founded in 1933, the airline has evolved into Turkey's flagship carrier and a prominent player in international air transportation. With a fleet exceeding 350 aircraft and a network spanning over 300 destinations across more than 120 countries, Turkish Airlines has etched its name as one of the largest and most influential airlines in the world. The company is renowned for its commitment to high-quality service, operational efficiency, and strategic growth initiatives aimed at expanding market share. Its strong position as a hub between Europe, Asia, and Africa opens up significant...
Turk Hava Yollari AO, commonly known as Turkish Airlines, stands as a pillar in the global aviation landscape. Founded in 1933, the airline has evolved into Turkey's flagship carrier and a prominent player in international air transportation. With a fleet exceeding 350 aircraft and a network spanning over 300 destinations across more than 120 countries, Turkish Airlines has etched its name as one of the largest and most influential airlines in the world. The company is renowned for its commitment to high-quality service, operational efficiency, and strategic growth initiatives aimed at expanding market share. Its strong position as a hub between Europe, Asia, and Africa opens up significant opportunities for passenger and cargo traffic, making it an attractive investment prospect.
For investors, Turkish Airlines offers a compelling narrative driven by robust financial performance and a strong recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The airline's adaptability in the face of changing market dynamics, such as the rise in demand for international travel, underscores its resilience. Furthermore, Turkish Airlines has been capitalizing on its unique geographic positioning, optimizing its routes to enhance profitability and operational efficiency. As travel continues to rebound, the company's investments in fleet modernization and digital transformation are poised to strengthen its competitive edge. With a commitment to sustainability and efficiency, Turkish Airlines not only aims to enhance shareholder value but also seeks to position itself as a leader in the evolving global aviation market.
Turkish Airlines, formally known as Türk Hava Yolları Anonim Ortaklığı (THYAO), operates several core business segments that contribute to its overall revenue and strategic objectives. Here are the primary segments:
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Passenger Services: This is the largest segment for Turkish Airlines, encompassing both domestic and international flight operations. The airline serves a vast network of destinations, offering various classes of service, including economy and business class. Key features include onboard services, frequent flyer programs (Miles&Smiles), and customer service enhancements.
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Cargo Services: Turkish Airlines has a significant cargo division known as Turkish Cargo, which operates under the same brand. This segment includes the transportation of freight and logistics solutions to various global destinations. The cargo services leverage the airline's extensive route network and fleet capacity, catering to e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, perishables, and other cargo segments.
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Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO): Turkish Airlines provides MRO services not only for its own fleet but also for other airlines. This segment includes engineering services, aircraft maintenance, and component repair services, reflecting the airline's strong technical expertise and capabilities in aviation services.
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Tourism and Ancillary Services: The airline also engages in various tourism-related services, including travel packages, hotel reservations, and car rentals, often in partnership with other companies. Ancillary revenue is generated through additional services such as extra baggage fees, seat selection fees, and in-flight sales.
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Frequent Flyer Programs and Partnerships: Turkish Airlines collaborates with other airlines through alliances like Star Alliance, which enhances its business through code-sharing agreements and offers extensive connectivity. The Miles&Smiles program further incentivizes customer loyalty by allowing members to earn and redeem miles for flights and services.
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Training and Consultancy Services: Turkish Airlines also provides aviation training and consultancy services, leveraging its expertise to assist other airlines and aviation professionals.
These core segments work synergistically to enhance Turkish Airlines' competitive position in the global aviation market while supporting the airline's growth and profitability objectives.
Turk Hava Yollari AO, commonly known as Turkish Airlines, possesses several unique competitive advantages that help it stand out in the highly competitive airline industry:
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Geographic Advantage: Turkish Airlines is strategically located in Istanbul, which serves as a major connecting hub between Europe, Asia, and Africa. This geographical positioning allows it to offer efficient connections and shorter travel times for passengers traveling between these continents.
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Extensive Network: The airline operates one of the largest flight networks in the world, covering numerous destinations across Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas. This broad reach enables it to capture diverse customer segments and offers travelers more choices.
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Highly Rated Service and Quality: Turkish Airlines consistently receives high marks for its customer service, in-flight amenities, and overall travel experience. Their investment in quality catering and comfortable seating enhances brand loyalty and attracts new customers.
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Growing Fleet and Modern Aircraft: With a relatively young fleet of aircraft, Turkish Airlines can offer newer and more fuel-efficient planes, which reduce operational costs and enhance the travel experience. This modern fleet allows the airline to optimize routes and improve its environmental footprint.
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Strong Brand Recognition: As a flag carrier, Turkish Airlines benefits from strong brand recognition both within Turkey and internationally. Its aggressive marketing and sponsorships of major global events enhance visibility and customer loyalty.
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Diverse Revenue Streams: Turkish Airlines has diversified its revenue streams beyond passenger travel, including cargo services, which has become increasingly important in the e-commerce era. This diversified portfolio can help mitigate risks associated with fluctuations in passenger demand.
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Alliances and Partnerships: Participation in the Star Alliance, along with numerous codeshare agreements, expands its reach and enhances the travel experience for frequent flyers, fostering customer loyalty and increasing market presence.
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Government Support: As Turkey's national carrier, Turkish Airlines may benefit from governmental support in terms of policy favorable to aviation and infrastructure development, which can enhance operational efficiency.
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Focus on Emerging Markets: Turkish Airlines has made significant inroads into emerging markets, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, where demand for air travel is growing rapidly. This focus positions it well for future growth opportunities.
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Loyalty Programs: The airline's frequent flyer program, Miles&Smiles, helps in building customer loyalty by rewarding frequent travelers, encouraging repeat business.
These competitive advantages enable Turkish Airlines to effectively compete with other global carriers while maintaining a strong market position. Their focus on service quality, strategic growth, and operational efficiency will be key for sustaining their competitive edge in the future.
Turk Hava Yollari AO, commonly known as Turkish Airlines, faces several risks and challenges in the near future:
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Economic Instability: Economic fluctuations, both globally and within Turkey, can impact consumer spending and travel. Inflation, currency volatility, and recessionary pressures can reduce demand for air travel.
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Geopolitical Risks: Turkey's strategic location also places it in a complex geopolitical environment. Tensions in regions surrounding Turkey, such as the Middle East, can lead to decreased travel demand and operational disruptions.
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Competition: The airline industry is highly competitive, with both low-cost carriers and full-service airlines vying for market share. Turkish Airlines must differentiate itself in terms of service, pricing, and route networks to maintain or grow its market position.
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Regulatory Changes: Changes in aviation regulations, both in Turkey and in destination countries, can impact airline operations. Compliance with international aviation standards is essential for maintaining operational licenses and route access.
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Fuel Prices: Fluctuations in oil prices significantly impact operational costs for airlines. Rising fuel costs can erode profit margins, particularly if they cannot be passed on to customers through ticket price increases.
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Pandemic Aftereffects: While travel has rebounded since the COVID-19 pandemic, lingering concerns and potential future outbreaks can lead to a decline in travel demand, particularly in international markets. Additionally, changing health and safety regulations can impact operations.
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Environmental Concerns: Increasing focus on sustainability and environmental impact may lead to further regulations and expectations from customers. Turkish Airlines may face pressure to adopt greener technologies and practices, which could require significant investment.
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Operational Challenges: The airline industry is susceptible to operational disruptions due to weather, technical failures, or labor strikes. Ensuring smooth operations is critical for maintaining customer satisfaction and operational efficiency.
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Technological Disruption: Advances in technology may change the way airlines operate and interact with customers. Turkish Airlines needs to invest in digital transformation and customer experience enhancements to stay competitive.
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Customer Loyalty and Expectations: With the rise of digital platforms and review culture, maintaining customer loyalty and meeting evolving consumer expectations is vital. Any lapses in service can lead to negative public perception and damage brand reputation.
To navigate these challenges effectively, Turkish Airlines will need to employ strategic planning, focus on customer satisfaction, and be adaptable to changing market conditions.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Turk Hava Yollari AO
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Turk Hava Yollari AO
Current Assets | 9.5B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 5.8B |
Receivables | 2.4B |
Other Current Assets | 1.4B |
Non-Current Assets | 28.1B |
Long-Term Investments | 1.1B |
PP&E | 23.6B |
Intangibles | 124m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 3.3B |
Current Liabilities | 10.1B |
Accounts Payable | 1.5B |
Accrued Liabilities | 92m |
Short-Term Debt | 1.1B |
Other Current Liabilities | 7.4B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 10.5B |
Long-Term Debt | 9.9B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 591m |
Earnings Waterfall
Turk Hava Yollari AO
Revenue
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21.9B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-17.3B
USD
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Gross Profit
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4.6B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-2.1B
USD
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Operating Income
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2.5B
USD
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Other Expenses
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3.8B
USD
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Net Income
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6.3B
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Turk Hava Yollari AO
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In the third quarter, Turkish Airlines navigated significant challenges, reporting total revenues of $6.6 billion—up 5% year-over-year—primarily driven by nearly 50% growth in cargo revenues. Passenger numbers reached 24.5 million, although direct traffic fell 8%. Despite geopolitical tensions reducing Middle Eastern routes, international demand remained robust. Looking ahead, the airline expects an 8% to 9% revenue increase for Q4 and revised guidance suggests a 10% rise in operational costs for 2024. By 2025, capacity growth is projected at 5% to 8%, with EBITDAR margins aimed between 23% to 25%.
What is Earnings Call?
THYAO.E Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Turk Hava Yollari AO's profitability score is 66/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Turk Hava Yollari AO's profitability score is 66/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
THYAO.E Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Turk Hava Yollari AO's solvency score is 58/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Turk Hava Yollari AO's solvency score is 58/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
THYAO.E Price Targets Summary
Turk Hava Yollari AO
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for THYAO.E is 450.74 TRY with a low forecast of 398.95 TRY and a high forecast of 515.58 TRY.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for THYAO.E is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Dividend Yield
Description
Türk Hava Yollari AO engages in the provision of domestic and international air transport and cargo services. The company operates under the following business segments: Air Transport (Aviation), which consist of mainly domestic and international passenger and cargo air Transportation, as well as Technical Maintenance Services (Technical), which consist of mainly aircraft repair and maintenance services and providing technical and infrastructure support related to aviation sector. Its subsidiaries include: THY Teknik AS and THY Habom AS, both engaged in aircraft maintenance services, as well as THY Aydin Cildir Havalimani Isletme AS, engaged in training and airport operations. The firm serves all domestic destinations as well as the Middle East, North America, Europe, Asia, North Africa and South Africa.
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The intrinsic value of one THYAO.E stock under the Base Case scenario is 321.09 TRY.
Compared to the current market price of 279.5 TRY, Turk Hava Yollari AO is Undervalued by 13%.