Koc Holding AS

IST:KCHOL.E

Earnings Call Analysis

Koç Holding Reports Strong Earnings Growth

Koç Holding has shown resilience and solid performance across its diversified portfolio despite global challenges such as escalated geopolitical risks and high inflation. The Energy segment boasted solid net income contributions due to strong domestic demand and high crack margins, while the auto segment delivered a robust performance, contributing 31% to consolidated net income, supported by strong domestic demand and effective pricing. TürkTraktör and Otokar saw strong sales, with Otokar achieving 152% revenue growth. The Finance segment, mainly driven by Yapi Kredi Bank, was the largest net income contributor at 41%. Yapi Kredi's net income increased by 38% and maintained strong liquidity with a liquidity coverage ratio of 197%. Overall, Koç Group's profit before tax reached TRY 174 billion, and net income rose by 75% year-on-year to TRY 145 billion. The consolidated net income grew by 83% year-on-year in Q3. The holding expresses confidence in sustaining liquidity levels, extending global footprint, and enhancing portfolio diversification.

Celebrating a Century of Progress and Looking Ahead

The company proudly commemorates the centennial of its home country's republic, positioning itself as a beacon of progress and a dedicated contributor to the nation's prosperity for a century. Reiterating their commitment, they aim to keep advancing the nation's interests into the future.

Navigating Global Economic Uncertainties

Despite political and economic headwinds such as escalated geopolitical risks and persisting high inflation, the company has observed a soft landing scenario providing some relief from concerns of a global recession, with the euro area being the weakest link.

Strategic Divestment and Robust Export Presence

The company has seen a significant shift in its portfolio due to the reduced ownership in Yapi Kredi Bank, retaining control even after a 6.81% share sale. The company remains a top exporter, boasting a substantial 7% contribution to the nation's total exports, displaying its diversified international reach.

Strengthened Financial Position

The net cash position has had a notable increase from $74 million at the end of last year to $632 million by the end of the third quarter. This increase is attributed to robust dividend income and prudent financial management. The company anticipates further improvements in net cash owing to additional dividends, despite planned capital contributions.

Adhering to Prudent Risk Management

A cornerstone of the company's philosophy is prudent financial stewardship. With the majority of its cash in hard currency and minimal debt obligations, the company ensures a stable liquidity buffer. Moreover, with a net financial debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.2x (excluding the finance segment), the company maintains a strong and conservative balance sheet.

Sector-Specific Updates and Financial Highlights

The Energy segment benefited from robust demand and favorable margins, while the auto segment capitalized on strong market dynamics and maintained OpEx control. Additionally, the Consumer Durables segment was propelled by solid domestic performance along with supportive international factors. The Finance segment, led by Yapi Kredi Bank, posted a significant portion of the company's net income. Overall, the company experienced a considerable profit before tax and net income growth of 75% year-on-year, signifying strong earnings across various sectors.

Investor Outlook Amidst Market Valuation Challenges

The NET Asset Value (NAV) discount has widened significantly, averaging nearly 30% year-to-date, but the intrinsic value is believed to be much larger than reflected. The company aspires to align its market valuation with historical averages by enhancing liquidity and inviting favorable investor sentiment. The management holds a conviction in the underlying robust fundamentals of the company.

Preparation for Impact of Inflation Accounting

In response to questions about inflation accounting, the company disclosed that it might witness adverse effects on its financial assets. Still, a significant boost is anticipated across its industrial assets. This mixed impact, particularly evident in the modest return on equity (ROE) guidance given by Yapi Kredi, is being closely evaluated to understand and adjust for the real impact on the Holding's ROE.

Strategic Financial Buffering and Investment Plans

The company maintains around $500 million as a cash buffer to address market volatility without specifying an exact threshold. In terms of future investments, while the company is open to exploring opportunities, there is caution against engaging in acquisitions that would heavily strain the balance sheet, suggesting that opportunities beyond $2 billion to $3 billion would be challenging without asset divestiture. This approach highlights the company's flexible yet cautious investment strategy aimed at maintaining a healthy balance sheet.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Maria, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Koç Holding conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the third quarter 2023 financial results.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mrs. Cansev Atak, IR Manager at Koç Holding. Mrs. Atak you may now proceed.

[Cansev Atak, executive]

Welcome, and thank you for joining us today. This is Cansev, IR Manager of Koç Holding. I have here with me our CFO, Polat Sen, our IR coordinator, Nursel and Finance Coordinator [indiscernible] and our IR Manager, [ Ismail ], to go over the presentation and answer your questions during the Q&A session. I would like to note that our presentation and the Q&A session might contain forward-looking statements and assumptions based on our business environment as we see it today, and they might be subject to change. Please remember you can access the replay of the webcast on our website after the call.

Now I would like to hand over to Polat to start the presentation. At the end of the presentation, we will have a Q&A session. Polat?

[Polat Sen, executive]

Thank you, Cansev. Welcome, everyone. Good evening.

I'm delighted to share you that this year, with both great enthusiasm and honor, we celebrate the Centennial of our Republic. As Koç Group having witnessed the century of the Republic, we will continue to be the forefront and we consider it our greatest duty to carry our Republic ever forward.

I would like to move on to Slide 2. You will see today's agenda. Let's start with Slide 4 with some key indicators for Koç Holding. I'm proud to share that we had a solid first 9 months despite all the challenges that we have been facing. Since our last webcast in early August, we observed escalated geopolitical risks, and these inevitably remain as significant challenges for the global economy. Many countries continue to deal with high inflation as it is above historical levels and tight monetary policies are sustained.

Global markets faced a slowdown in growth with the euro area remaining the weak link. Still, this soft landing scenario provides some relief and there is a less concern for the global recession scenario. In Turkey, despite the devastating earthquakes in early February, the real economic activity remained relatively resilient, primarily due to strong domestic demand. Despite a slight quarterly backdrop, we observed ongoing strength in our economic activity in the third quarter as well. On the other hand, the softness in European markets is reflected in Turkey's exports, as you can see.

At Koç Holding, we have proven -- we have a proven track record of successfully managing our volatility. Our resilience, strong financials and intake fundamentals are the reflection of our diversified portfolio, agile management and prudent risk policies. On the left, you can see the sectoral breakdown of our diversified business portfolio as of the end of September.

Here, the major change since June is our lower effective ownership in Yapi Kredi Bank without loss of control, following the 6.81% share sale to foreign institutional shareholders via accelerated book building. This explains the lower share in the financial segment.

On the right side, you can see the revenue breakdown. Our portfolio diversification is not limited with sectors but also includes international positioning. We are the largest exporting group in Turkey with our exports accounting for around 7% of total of Turkey's exports.

In terms of the composition of our revenues on a combined basis, in the first 9 months of 2023, 28% is coming from international sales. If we also include Tüpras, which is an FX-linked commodity business, approximately 50% of our revenues can be considered in hard currency.

Moving on to Slide 5. You can see the evolution of our net cash in the first 9 months of this year. At the end of last year, we had $74 million net cash position at the Holding level. In the first 9 months of this year, our dividend income was solid and amounted approximately TRY 16 billion excluding dividends after the end of September. Considering our dividend income and other items such as management fees, operating and financial expenses and currency conversion impact, our net cash position at the end of September 23 reached $632 million, including Yapi Kredi AT1 investment.

Please note that we will receive dividends in the fourth quarter from Ford Otosan to be received at the end of this month and Ayas, which has already been received in October, totaling TRY 8.2 billion, which is Koç Holding share, while there is a cash outflow related to the capital contribution for [indiscernible] . Accordingly, our net cash position will increase by TRY 7 billion, excluding other items for the remainder of the year, such as operating expenses.

On the Slide 6, you can see the main pillars of our solid balance sheet. As you all know, prudent management has always been a key focus area. As we have discussed, our net cash position as of end of September stood at $632 million, including Yapi Kredi investment. Around 94% of our $1.2 billion of gross cash, which is $1.4 billion with Yapi Kredi is in hard currency.

At the Holding stand-alone level, we like to keep some liquidity to serve as a war chest against volatility as well as a firepower in case of investment opportunities. In terms of our funding at Koç Holding level, the only debt we have is the $750 million Eurobond outstanding as of end of June. We strictly apply and regularly monitor our prudent risk management policies at each underlying company on a combined basis.

In terms of liquidity, leverage and foreign cash position, we preserved and even improved our conservative levels. On a combined basis, our current ratio is 1.3x and our net financial debt-to-EBITDA is at 0.2x, which is excluding the finance segment. In terms of FX, we remain valid in our risk management rules. As the largest holding company in Turkey and being active in diversified sectors, we manage our balance sheet to ensure that we remain resilient against the market volatility.

So now I'd like to hand over to Nursel to go through the developments of this quarter.

[Nursel Ilgen, executive]

Thank you, Polat. Welcome, everyone.

Let's move on to secular developments in the first 9 months of the year. We'll start with Energy and Tüpras on Slide 8. The Energy segment's contribution to Koç Holding's net income is solid in the first 9 months, mainly thanks to strong domestic demand, above historic average crack margins, wide differentials and also easing energy costs despite lower capacity utilization in the first half of the year. Looking at the sector data that is available for the first 7 months of this year, we observed that the domestic demand for refined products was strong. Jet fuel sales surged 18%, gasoline sales increased 30% and diesel sales grew 9% year-on-year. In the first 9 months, Tüpras' domestic sales volume was up 3%, while international sales were down 18%, resulting in 2% year-on-year lower total sales volume.

Looking at the refining margins, we see Med Complex margin reaching $28.70 per barrel in the first 9 months of this year. Tüpras' overall net refining margin amounted to $13.3 per barrel, which is lower than the same period of last year, mainly due to higher base of cracks last year and weaker utilization in the first half, white differentials against NAV in -- on a quarter-on-quarter basis and also lower energy costs. The capacity utilization was around 84% in the first 9 months, mainly due to maintenance in the first half.

On the LPG side, again, looking at the sector data available for the first 7 months of the year, we observed that consumption was strong, increasing 24%. Aygaz domestic retail sales volume was up 19%, and including wholesale as well as contribution from Bangladesh, total sales volume growth was 29% year-on-year in the first 9 months.

Let's move to Slide 9 and discuss the developments in the auto segment. Our auto company sustained their solid performance in the first 9 months of the year. The segment contribution to our consolidated net income was 31%. The main drivers of this performance were strong domestic demand, gradual recovery and export markets, solid export contracts, OpEx control and also pricing discipline.

In the first 9 months, we witnessed 63% surge in domestic auto sales. Our market share in the domestic market decreased around 2 percentage points to 26% compared to the same period of previous year. On the export side, the European passenger car market reduced 17% growth, and our good market share in exports decreased 8 percentage points to 37%.

In the first 9 months, Ford Otosan export sales volume was 35% higher, primarily supported by the volumes from Craiova plant, while Tofas business, 51% decrease in its export volumes due to expiry of total contract at 2022 year-end. Strong domestic sales, pricing discipline as well as currency tables supported total revenues of Ford, Ford Otosan and Tofas, and export revenue growth was strong for Ford Otosan including contribution of Craiova, while it was down at Tofas, mainly due to discontinuation of total production for export markets.

TürkTraktör enjoyed strong domestic sales in the first 9 months, mainly due to subsidized agricultural loans at low interest rates, and the company's export sales volume was also strong. Otokar, our leading part and defense company realized 152% growth in revenues and the share of international revenues constituted around 67% of total revenues.

On Slide 10, let's look at the Consumer Durables segment. The segment performance was supported by robust Turkey revenues with currency tailwinds for international revenues as well as these raw material costs, however, surplus in demand in many international markets and higher financial expenses continue to be reflected on the bottom line. Turkish White Goods unit sales increased 18% in the first 9 months, while the export sales were weak and decreased 12%.

Looking at Arçelik figures in the first 9 months. Turkey revenues increased 98%, thanks to effective pricing and increase in unit sales across major product groups. Similarly, international revenues constituting 62% of total increased 34% on the back of FX impact and inorganic growth despite a 3% decrease in like-for-like sales.

Looking at the key risk metrics, we see that Arçelik managed to attain the maturity levels and the company's working capital to sales ratio was 23.4%. Similarly, leveraged state at comfortable levels with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.4x.

Finally, let me also briefly talk about the Finance segment and the developments at Yapi Kredi on Slide 11. The Finance segment was the largest contributor to consolidated net income with a 41% share in the first 9 months of the year. According to BRSA financials, Yapi Kredi Bank's net income increased to 38% to TRY 48.7 billion in the first 9 months, while return on tangible equity was realized at 46%. Thanks to the ongoing loan repricing below sector average pricing for TL deposits and also strong Turkish lira demand deposit performance, supporting cost of funding, Turkish lira loan-to-deposit spread expanded in the third quarter. The bank recorded a substantial improvement in free cost. On the operating cost side, the increase includes inflation pass-through impact and also earthquake-related costs.

In the first 9 months, total performing cash loan growth was around 31% and total customer deposit growth was 42%. The bank's strategy to focus on small ticket and deposits continued, and the share of demand deposit and total customer deposits remained at high level with 43%. Net cumulative cost of risk, including currency hedge was at 31 basis points, mainly due to strong collection performance. Conservative coverage ratios -- conservative coverage levels were preserved and the total coverage was 4.8% on a consolidated basis.

Yapi Kredi remains comfortable in terms of liquidity and the liquidity coverage ratio of the bank stood at 197% as of end of September. In terms of capital, the bank continues to operate with around 600 basis points buckets capital ratios compared to regulatory requirements supported by the internal capital generation. Car and Tier-1 ratios stood at 17.8% and 15.8% by September, respectively.

If you move to Slide 12, I'll walk you through the overall results of the group in the first 9 months of the year, incorporating all of the segment trends that we just discussed. On a combined basis, the group Koc Group registered TRY 174 billion in profit before tax and TRY 145 billion in net income. Consolidated net income amounted to TRY 73.7 billion with a 75% year-on-year growth.

Moving on to Slide 13, you can see our third quarter results with consolidated net income totaling TRY 36.3 billion, implying 83% year-on-year growth. Now I would like to leave the floor to Polat for concluding remarks...

[Polat Sen, executive]

On Slide 15, you will see the evolution of the net asset value discount. Our year-to-date weekly average NAV discounts is just under 30% compared to the long-term average discount of 11% to 12%. At Koç Holding, we benefit from our market proxy studies, and we observed our NAV discount narrowing down sharply in May this year, supported by the sentiment and the return of the foreign investors. Unfortunately, considering approximately 90% of our NAV is composed of our listed assets, the share price performance of the majority of our listed companies recently is not reflected in Koç Holding's share price.

Besides the intrinsic value of our unlisted companies is much big -- much higher compared to their book values, which is obvious in the inflationary environment. As discussed previously, Koç Holding's current discount level does not really reflect the solid fundamentals and we observe a deeply disconnected valuation. We hope to converge back to our historical NAV discount levels with enhanced liquidity, better sentiment as reflected by the decrease in Turkey's 5-year CDS levels and higher share of foreign real investors in free flow.

In summary, our balance sheet is strong with a solid cash position and potential cash inflow in the fourth quarter and our portfolio structure and diversification ensures resilience against volatility. As the leading investment company in Turkey, we are focusing on managing our portfolio dynamically. We will continue to create value with our leading practices in the field of environmental, social and governance, value creation, extending our global footprint and diversifying our business further are always the key priorities for us. We have the potential to further diversify our positioning both domestically and internationally through our investments while sustaining efficient level of liquidity.

So I would like to thank you for listening, and we can open the floor for the questions.

[Operator]

The first question is from Kilickiran, Hanzade with JPMorgan.

[Hanzade Kilickiran, analyst]

Thank you very much for the presentation. So I don't have a very sophisticated question, but I really wonder about the impact of the inflation accounting on the Koç Holding ROE. I presume that you have been already doing some accounting work to understand the real ROE on the Holding level. Is it possible to share it with us?

[Polat Sen, executive]

Hanzade, we do not disclose right now because it's not audited, et cetera, we are doing some -- for our internal purposes, we are running some analysis on that. But as you may expect, from our monetary assets like bank or finance companies, consumer finance companies, we expect a negative impact. But on the other assets, our industrial assets, we expect higher profitability due to inflation accounting, like Tüpras, Arçelik and Tofas, Ford Otosan. So that's what I can say. But I'm sure that you have seen the most important negative effect is coming from Yapi -- Yapi Kredi. And their guidance is around mid to low teens in terms of ROE. So that is what I can say. So you can -- you can make some calculation around it, I guess.

[Operator]

There are no further audio questions at this time. We have a question from a webcast participant from Samarth Agrawal with Citi.

Four questions, if I may. Could you elaborate more on cash buffer at the holding company level? What levels of buffer are you comfortable with for volatility and external headwinds? And any qualitative guidance around how much of the net cash levels are earmarked for new acquisitions would be very helpful.

Second question, how does your investment pipeline look like currently? What levels of EV and ticket size are you looking in terms of future deployment?

Third question on Slide 4. I believe that the NAV share of automotive has decreased versus first half '23, while refining has increased. While this is mainly share price driven, I wanted to get your thoughts if this is also partly reflect expectation of softer demand outlook following a period of strong growth.

And lastly, I wanted to understand the components within "other" line item on Slide 5. I sense that this line item has increased materially in third quarter '23.

[Polat Sen, executive]

All right. I'll start with the first question.

We do not have a specific number of how much cash buffer should we keep in Koç Holding for volatility. But I can say that when you look at the last 5 to 10 years average, you can see that it is around $500 million. So basically, there's no specific amount, but it seems like that is how we are practicing it right now.

For new acquisitions, et cetera, we -- this is also the second question as well a little bit. For the new acquisitions, we do not have a specific number again. Of course, we are looking at opportunities. If there would be an opportunity with a bigger ticket size, we should be able to do it as long as it is not creating an unhealthy situation in the balance sheet. So I can tell that the opportunities really change or differ from each other. So we should really first see the opportunity and then talk about. But obviously, I can tell that we cannot really go for very, very, very high numbers. That's what I can say. And very high numbers for me is more than maybe $2 billion, $3 billion should be hard to swallow without disposing any asset.

So other than that, for the EV or, let's say, investment pipeline, we are looking at a lot of stuff. It is -- we are looking at too many industries, the adjacent ones, what we are doing today. And on top of that, we are interested in renewable technologies and also health care or also we are looking at opportunities in other sectors as well, let me say, the one that we have some more experience on.

On the NAV share of automotive, yes, you're right. It's mainly share price driven. But if you're asking me if this is reflecting the softer demand outlook for automotive? I do not really know. I think the positivity around refinery business or fossil fuel is more effective rather than automotive business demand outlook. So that is the situation.

On the other item, I'm going to be asking Nursel or maybe we can get back to you about this question later on because I do not have the numbers in front of me right now. But our IR team is going to get back to you with an e-mail.

[Operator]

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference back over to management for any closing comments. Thank you.

[Polat Sen, executive]

I would like to thank everyone who has joined the call and listened to us. Thank you very much. Have a nice evening.