Koc Holding AS
IST:KCHOL.E

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Koc Holding AS
IST:KCHOL.E
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Price: 182 TRY -1.46% Market Closed
Market Cap: 461.5B TRY
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Earnings Call Analysis

Q1-2024 Analysis
Koc Holding AS

Strong Q1 Performance with Regional Market Recovery

Koç Holding exhibited a strong performance in Q1 2024, driven by resilient domestic demand and recovering international markets. Exports surged by 62%, and international sales comprised 30% of revenues, with nearly half of the total revenue in hard currency. The auto segment led the income surge with a 24% increase in domestic sales. Meanwhile, the company’s net cash position stood at $777 million. Despite regional economic volatility, Koç Holding’s diversified portfolio and robust financials ensure ongoing resilience and opportunities for sustainable growth. Management maintains cautious optimism for the remainder of the year, closely monitoring inflation and geopolitical risks.

Introduction

In the first quarter of 2024, Koç Holding demonstrated resilience amidst global inflation and geopolitical risks. While inflation has decreased faster than expected in the euro area, it remains high in the United States, delaying anticipated rate cuts by the Fed to later in the year. The performance of Koç Holding reflects careful navigation through these volatile economic conditions.

Financial Performance

Koç Holding posted a profit before tax of TRY 16.6 billion and a net income of TRY 7.5 billion for the first quarter. However, consolidated net income was limited to TRY 1.4 billion due to inflation-adjusted accounting, which led to monetary losses, particularly impacting Yapi Kredi Bank. The company held a strong net cash position of $777 million by the end of March, even after accounting for significant dividend payments and acquisitions.

Sectoral Insights

Key sectors had mixed results. The Energy segment faced weakened crack margins despite resilient domestic demand. The Automotive segment was the largest contributor to net income, driven by a 24% surge in domestic auto sales and strong export performance. In contrast, the Consumer Durables segment showed strong domestic sales but lower international sales. The Finance segment, influenced by Yapi Kredi, posted a negative contribution due to inflation accounting adjustments.

Operational Highlights

Koç Holding’s diversified portfolio includes significant international exposure, with exports constituting 7% of Turkey’s total exports and 48% of the company's revenue considered in hard currency, bolstering its financial stability amidst domestic economic challenges. Additionally, the group managed to maintain a high level of liquidity and conservative debt ratios, with a net financial debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.3x, excluding the finance segment.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, Koç Holding is focused on sustaining growth through strategic investments in healthcare, renewables, and machinery production. The company is exploring both domestic and international opportunities, prioritizing sustainable and profitable growth while maintaining its robust financial health. While the overall economic environment remains challenging, Koç Holding's diversified portfolio and cautious risk management are expected to navigate through potential headwinds successfully.

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2024-Q1

from 0
Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm [ Poppy ], your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Koç Holdings conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the first quarter 2024 financial results.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Cansev Atak, IR Manager at Koç Holdings. Ms. Atak, you may now proceed.

C
Cansev Atak
executive

Welcome, and thank you for joining us today. This is Cansev, IR Manager of Koç Holding. I have here with me our CFO, Polat Sen; our IR coordinator, Nursel; our Finance Coordinator, Özge; and our IR Manager, Ismail to go over the presentation and answer your questions during the Q&A session.

Our presentation on the first quarter financial results contain the company's unaudited financial information prepared according to Turkish Accounting Financial Reporting Standards by application of IAS 29 inflation accounting. I would like to note that our presentation and the Q&A session might contain forward-looking statements and assumptions based on our business environment as we see it today and they might be subject to change. Please remember you can access the replay of the webcast on our website after the call. Now I would like to hand over to Polat Bey to start the presentation. At the end of the presentation, we will have a Q&A session.

P
Polat Sen
executive

Thank you very much for joining our call. Welcome. I'd like to start by giving you a quick overview of our positioning in the current environment. In the first quarter of 2024, the focus of global markets has continued to be inflation and geopolitical risks, global inflation has been on a downward trajectory as global central banks continue their tight monetary policies. While inflation has been declining steadily and faster than expected in the euro area, inflation remains above projections in the United States.

Accordingly, the expectation of a rate cut by the Fed seems to be delayed to the last quarter of this year. In terms of global economic activity, global growth has been strong so far in 2024 and is expected to preserve the same trend for the remainder of the year. The growth in the euro area, our largest export market was exceptionally low in 2023 and is recovering slowly. We closely monitor global and regional geopolitical developments as they pose risk of supply chain disruptions as well as an increase in freight costs and hence the cost push inflation. In Turkey, economic activity and domestic demand for durable goods was particularly strong in the first quarter.

However, the monetary policy actions that pushed loan and deposit rates higher within the scope of fight against inflation is likely to cure domestic demand throughout the rest of 2024, which is already included in our company's 2024 guidance. I'll start with Slide 5. We start with some key indicators for Koç Holding. On the left, you can see the sectoral breakdown of our portfolio as of end of March.

Here, the major changes since 2023 year-end are the sale of Tat Gida and the acquisition of Kemer Medical Center shares. On the right, you can see the revenue breakdown. Our portfolio diversification is not limited to sectors, but also includes international positioning. We are the largest exporting group in Turkey with our exports accounting for around 7% of Turkey's total exports.

In terms of the composition of own revenues on a combined basis, in the first quarter of the year, 30% is coming from international sales. If we also include Tüpras, which is an FX-linked commodity business, approximately 48% of our revenues can be considered in hard currency.

On Slide 6, you can see our dividend income and payments in nominal terms. So far this year, our dividend income amounted to approximately TRY 23.6 billion, which is around $736 million, including dividends from our unlisted companies, yet excluding potential dividends for the remainder of the year from some of our companies as per our past year practices. Note that most of our dividend income is derived from the companies with FX or FX-linked revenues.

In 2024, we distributed TRY 22.5 billion or $692 million of dividend to our shareholders. As a reminder, we manage our debt dividend payments considering our dividend income and investment opportunities and also our balance sheet management and risk principles, including our net cash position.

Moving on to Slide 7, you can see the evolution of our net cash in 2024. At the end of '23, we had around $795 million of net cash position, including the YKB AT1 investment at the Holding level. In 02/2024, considering items such as management fees, operating and financial expenses and currency conversion impact as well as the proceeds from the sale of Tat Gida shares and the cash outflow for the acquisition of 80% of Kemer Medical Center. Our net cash position at the end of March '24 reached $777 million, which is very similar to the level at the end of the year. Please note that we received proceeds of YKB 81 in January this year when it was cold, which is already included in our '23 year-end net cash calculation.

As a separate note, we received dividends from our underlying companies and the dividend payment from Koç Holding was in April, which is not included in our March end net cash calculation. Accordingly, reflecting this, in addition to additional share purchases in Otokar and Tofas recently, our adjusted net cash position becomes approximately at around $760 million.

On Slide 8, as of the end of March, you can see that around 96% of our $1.5 billion gross cash is in our currency. At the holding stand-alone level, we like to keep some liquidity to serve as warchest against volatility as well as a firepower in case of any investment opportunities. In terms of our funding at Koç Holding level, the only debt we have is the $750 million euro bond, which is due in March '25. We strictly apply and regularly monitor our prudent risk management policies as each underlying company and on a combined basis.

In terms of liquidity, leverage and foreign exchange position, we preserved our conservative levels. On a combined basis, our current ratio is at 1.3x and our net financial debt-to-EBITDA, excluding the finance segment, of course, is at 0.3x. In terms of FX, we remain in our risk management rules. I'm very happy to share that our prudent management approach was validated by recent rating upgrade. Yesterday, S&P raised our corporate rating from BB- to BB. Accordingly, Koç Holdings ratings are BB by S&P, 2 notches above Turkey sovereign rating and B2 by Moody's, 1 notch above Turkey sovereign rating. Now I would like to hand over to Nursel to go through our groups.

N
Nursel Ilgen
executive

Thank you, Polat Bey. Okay. Let's move on the sector development in the first quarter of 2024. I'll start with Energy on Slide 11. The Energy segment's bottom line was suppressed in the first quarter, mainly due to weakness in crack margins year-on-year, narrowed the pressures year-on-year in spite of a quarter-on-quarter improvement and the start of RUP maintenance in March this year despite resilient domestic demand and steady energy costs. The domestic demand for refined products was resilient.

In the first 2 months, jet fuel sales increased 4%, gasoline sales surged 21% and diesel sales grew 2% year-on-year. In the first quarter, Tüpras domestic sales were 1% down while international sales volume was up 62%, resulting in 10% year-on-year higher total sales volume. Looking at the crack margins, Tüpras weighted average crack margin amounted to $14.5 per barrel. Even though cracks are below the high levels of the previous year's first quarter, they remain about 5-year averages. Tüpras capacity utilization rate was around 82% in the first quarter despite the start of RUP maintenance in March.

On the LPG side, consumption was weak, decreasing 10% in the first 2 months. And Aygaz domestic retail sales volume was down 14%, including wholesale as well as the contribution from Bangladesh, total sales volume decline was 16% in the first quarter.

Let's move to Slide 12 and discuss the developments in the Auto segment. The Auto segment was the largest contributor to consolidated net income in the first quarter. The main drivers of this performance were growth in exports and solid export contracts despite heightened competition in the domestic market and lower pricing ability with increased vehicle availability.

In the first quarter of the year, we saw a 24% surge in domestic auto sales. The increase is associated with demand pull forward due to high inflation and post-election price increase expectations as well as adjustments and special consumption exemption limits for disabled people and improved vehicle availability.

Our market share in the domestic market, however, decreased by around 10 percentage points to 21% compared to the same period of the previous year, mainly due to fierce competition, especially in passenger cars. On the export side, the European passenger car market grew 5% and the large and medium commercial vehicle market realized 12% growth. Our group market share in the export increased 3 percentage points to 42%. In the first 3 months of the year, Ford Otosan export sales volume was 11% higher while Tofas witnessed a 26% increase in its export volumes mainly due to low base and also penetration of Tipo/Egea model into the MENA region, for Tofas. Strong export sales supported total revenues of both Ford Otosan and Tofas in the first quarter.

TürkTraktör managed a 1% growth in domestic sales, while the tractor market was down 12% in the first quarter in an environment of increasing interest rates. Otokar, our leading bus and defense company, realized 12% growth in revenues and the share of international revenues constituted around 54% of total revenues in the first quarter.

On Slide 13, let's look at the Consumer Durables segment. Consumer Durables segment's performance was supported by stellar Turkey revenues, a slight recovery in main international markets and eased raw material costs, while profitability was impacted by higher financial expenses.

The Turkish market unit sales increased 28% in the first quarter of this year, while the export sales decreased 5%. Looking at Arcelik figures, Turkey revenues increased 18%, thanks to a 27% increase in unit sales. On the other hand, international revenues that constitute around 57% of the total revenue decreased 3% year-on-year despite a slight unit growth. Arcelik managed to attain the key risk metrics at healthy levels and the company's working capital to sales ratio was 23.4%. Similarly, leverage stated comfortable levels with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.65x.

Finally, let me also please talk about the Finance segment and the development of Yapi Kredi on Slide 14. The Finance segment contribution to our net income was negative in the first quarter of the year. Please note that in our consolidated financials, we used Yapi Kredi's inflation adjusted financials, which is affected by monetary loss due to the net monetary position of the bank. As a separate note, Yapi Kredi's contribution to Finance segment results may differ from the bank's IFRS results, mainly due to purchase price allocation adjustments regarding Koç Holding's additional share post transaction back in February 2020.

Here, while providing the main KPIs of the bank, I would like to switch to BRSA financials as banks are exempt from inflation accounting for this year. In the first quarter of the year, the total performing cash loan growth was around 17% and total customer deposit growth was 5%. The bank's strategy to focus on small tickets and deposits continued, and the share of demand deposits in total customer deposits became 44%. Despite the ongoing lower repricing, increasing cost of Turkish lira deposits in the sector resulted in TL loan to deposit spread to narrow in the first quarter of this year.

However, with the contribution of demand deposit growth, Yapi Kredi's TL loan to deposit spread maintained its positive levels. Net fees and commissions registered a significant 190% growth year-on-year, while the cost growth was limited at 87%. As a result, the [ fee ] coverage of operating cost ratio realized at 97%. Net cumulative cost of risk, including the currency hedge was at 82 basis points given front-loaded provisions despite strong collections and limited NPL inflows during the quarter. Conservative coverage ratios were preserved and the total coverage was 3.8% on a consolidated basis. Yapi Kredi remains comfortable in terms of liquidity. The FX liquidity coverage ratio was 473%, while the total liquidity coverage ratio of the bank was realized a 146% as of the end of March.

In terms of capital, again, Yapi Kredi continued to operate it around 320 basis point buffers on its capital ratios compared to regulatory requirements. With the additional Tier 1 issuance of $500 million in April, the adjusted CAR and Tier 1 ratio stood at 50.7% and 12.8%, respectively. So this concludes the sectoral development. Now I would like to leave the floor to Polat Bey for the remainder of the presentation.

P
Polat Sen
executive

Thank you, Nursel. On Slide 15, I'll walk you through the overall results of the group in the first quarter of the year incorporating all the segment trends, just we have discussed. Please note that all figures in this slide are inflation adjusted due to the application of inflation accounting. Accordingly, on a combined basis, Koç Group registered TRY 16.6 billion in profit before tax and TRY 7.5 billion in net income. Consolidated net income amounted to TRY 1.4 billion, predominantly suppressed by monetary losses due to inflation accounting.

In the first quarter, we preserved our resilience against the challenging dynamics in all the sectors we operate. On the other hand, we faced monetary losses in our companies that have high monetary asset positions, especially in Yapi Kredi Bank. As a reminder, Yapi Kredi already reported first quarter financials according to BRSA and banks are exempt from inflation accounting, but we have to consolidate the bank applying inflation accounting, which results in monetary losses.

Note that our company's net cash positions, hence, monetary assets were high at the end of March, ahead of the dividend payments in April that created an additional burden in terms of monetary loss. The company's net cash position, and hence monetary assets are tripped down after dividend payments in April.

If we move to Slide 17, you will see the evolution of net asset value discount. Our weekly average net asset value discount in 2024 was approximately around at 23% compared to the long-term average discount of 12%. As Koç Holding, we benefit from our market proxy status, and we observed our NAV discount narrowing down when supported by sentiment as reflected by the decrease in Turkey's 5-year CDS levels and return to foreign investors.

In summary, as the Koç Group, we continue to create value with our robust financials diversified portfolio, extensive supply chain, exemplary environmental, social and corporate governance practices and our effective risk management policies. As always, we have been diligently assessing profitable and sustainable growth opportunities and pursuing our investments with unyielding determination. We have the potential to further diversify our positioning both domestically and internationally through our investments while sustaining an efficient level of liquidity.

Our balance sheet is strong, and our portfolio structure and diversification ensures resilience against volatility. Thank you for listening. Now we can open the question -- floor for the questions-and-answer session. Thank you.

Operator

The first question comes from the line of [indiscernible] with Barclays.

U
Unknown Analyst

Congrats on the results and on the great dividend income in the first -- in 2023 and year-to-date. I have a couple of questions. So my first question would be, obviously, sensitive topic at the moment, but I would greatly appreciate if you could please provide any color on ongoing discussions over your portfolio mix and potential sale of the Yapi Bank. And if you could share any color on the transaction of potential strategic implications of how this would affect your portfolio and how you view the financial sector in general, that would be very helpful.

And also my second question, obviously, we have seen a lot of issuances in Turkey at the moment. And so I was wondering if you're also considering to come to the market and refinance in the short term.

P
Polat Sen
executive

Obviously, this is a hot issue. And I mean, I think we have made 2 announcements about this issue. And we have told that there have been some preliminary discussions about this issue. And to be honest, the news that was made by Reuters does not reflect the details right. So therefore, we had to make another announcement to make sure that the market understands it well. But right now, there's nothing concrete that we can give some more information on this. If there is anything, we are going to do this announcement according to the Capital Markets Board rules in Turkey.

For your second question, issuances, we have actually very recently have done -- Ford Otosan has done issuance. And within this year, of course, we are looking at the market very closely. The need for Eurobond issuance, we can't see for any of our companies, but I'm sure that you are getting more information from them. But if we can really see the right window opportunity for Koç Holding, we are going to be closely monitoring the market.

If we can redefine the right opportunity, maybe this could be an option in the second half of the year. But right now, we are not really working on this very close, let me say. That's all I can say. Thank you.

U
Unknown Analyst

One quick follow-up. And in terms of your potential new investments, what are the industries that you're interested in?

P
Polat Sen
executive

Right. I think this is also, I mean, a question from the -- I got it written on me. I think Adil Rizvi have asked this about Jefferies and the new areas that we are interested in is health care is one of the areas that we are very much interested. We are closely looking -- trying to understand the sector, both on the service side and also medical equipment. On the service side, we are interested in hospitals. We are interested in -- if we can find the right targets, of course, retirement homes facilities. But right now, we know how to do -- we have just acquired a hospital chain in the South of Turkey, Kemer Medical Center.

And we would like to -- we think that we can add value to this business. And we are also looking for internationalization opportunities in hospital area. And also on the medical equipment side, this is an area that we are new. Last year, we have acquired a company called Biçakcilar, which is mainly producing catheters. It's a small company, but it's a good area for us to understand the business, who is the buyer, how dynamics works, et cetera. So now I think we are at a level now that we can even invest more by organic and inorganic in the sector. We think that this is going to be a growth area for Koç Holding. It's the second area that we are interested is in renewables, either in Turkey or outside Turkey. We are looking for both solar and wind opportunities. But IRRs are low, as you know. But this is an area which is very much complementary with our ESG goals, and we would like to keep on focusing on this.

The third area is machinery production and engineering companies that could be European family-owned businesses with succession problems. We think that we could be good buyers for such assets. So this is something that we are looking in the market right now, but there is nothing concrete as an acquisition as of today that we can share.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further audio questions at this time. We will now proceed with the written questions from the webcast participants. The first question comes from Adil Rizvi with Jefferies, and I quote...

P
Polat Sen
executive

I'm going to stop you there because I have already answered this question. This is exactly the same question that the participant just asked. So we can move to the other question.

Operator

Okay. So the next question comes from Samarth Agrawal, with Citi. There are 3 questions, I will read them one by one. How do you view the domestic macro trends currently given CBT comments around limited decline in April inflation and slowdown in domestic demand? Do you see further risk to portfolio growth amidst slowing domestic demand outlook and any potential currency appreciation of Turkish lira?

P
Polat Sen
executive

I'll answer one by one, then you can maybe read the second question. I -- we personally -- as Koç Holdings, I understand that these tight monetary policies are going to be contracting demand in Turkey, especially in the quarter 2, 3 and 4 because the main goal of our economy management is fighting inflation which we think is the correct target to tackle.

So we are -- we do see some slowdown in some of the sectors, not all of them, but there is a slight slowdown. Most probably, we think that this is going to be temporary. We do not think that this is going to take a long time. But this year, in terms of demand is going to be a tougher year compared to 2023 and in terms of any potential currency appreciation against Turkish lira, as this is a hard question to answer, but if we assume that the main target is inflation, I think this is one of the most important areas.

In the past, while trying to keep the currency at this level, we were -- I mean, as Central Bank was losing reserves, U.S. reserves. Right now, this is not an issue anymore because the interest rate environment is really helping them to build some more reserves. So the pressure is much lower than before in terms of depreciation of Turkish lira. But I think your question was currency appreciation, sorry about that. I made my comment. For appreciation, I do not think that there's going to be a major change from today. Maybe you can read the second question. I can answer.

Operator

The second question, I quote, "I understand that you put your comments around divestment related to financial assets and that you may have limited further comments. However, in general, what criteria you consider for divestment and your exposure to financials as a sector? "

P
Polat Sen
executive

Yes. Koç Holding is a portfolio company. I mean, we are managing the portfolio. From time to time, we are going to sell assets from time to time, we are going to acquire new assets. So as long as there is a -- we think that there is good value behind an interest from a third party from any of our assets not only our financial assets that you are referring to, we are obliged to look at this for our shareholders, actually.

So right now, for the financial assets that you're talking about, as I told you, there is nothing concrete and there's not much that I can share with you. But our consideration is for all of our assets, we look at the performance of our assets in the past in terms of how much they can generate cash, how much dividend performance they have.

And we look at the future, of course, if this is the right owner of this asset or if there is an owner who may create more synergy from this asset and maybe reflecting some of the synergy to the pricing at some point. So those -- and if this is a fair, let's say, trade at the end of the day, we can see that it is happening. But it's not always the case. And this is -- I'm talking about all of our assets, not our financial asset.

I think there's not much more that I can really share about this, but we are obliged to make this actually. This is what Koç Holding is for to manage the asset portfolio. Maybe you can go on for the third question.

Operator

I quote the third question. "How should we see the use of profit and divestment? Would it be used for capital returns or any particular areas you're targeting in terms of asset class, size of asset, geography, et cetera. Also, is there any change to your IRR criteria for new portfolio investments?"

P
Polat Sen
executive

Of course, if at some point of time, we sell an asset, and there's a cash in compared to the amount or the ticket size, let's say, we have to go through our strategy on acquiring new assets. I've already told you the areas that we are interested in, in the previous questions. So the ticket size is going to be an important deal here. If we are going to be acquiring a company in an area that we already know how to do business, I think we can do business anywhere in the world in terms of geography.

If there's an asset that we'd like to acquire that we do not know before, for example, health care is like that, that I don't think that we are going to go and do business in emerging economies or risk rate high countries. We are going to be choosing more developed countries like Europe or North America. In terms of IRR criteria, our criteria is mid-teens, but of course, this is very general. If it is a low-risk country, it can go a little bit down. If it's a low -- high-risk country, it is going to be going up, but it's going to be around teens. As I told you, for example, for renewables, it's very much, let's say, important for our strategy for the future.

We are okay with lower, let's say, end of this teens. But for risky assets, which is in the bumpy emerging economies, then we are going to be looking for something over mid-teens even. Thank you. Maybe we can go on for the fourth question.

Operator

I'm quoting the fourth question. "Could you provide update around your investment pipeline? Your cash position is strong, but how should we think time lines for major deployments? "

P
Polat Sen
executive

I mean this is not -- there is no answer for this question, to be honest, because at the end of the year, we had cash on our balance sheet. We can acquire some ticket sizes with that, but this takes time as there should be a real target there. And we are not going to do investment just because we have cash on our balance sheet. We have to make sure this is going to be really paying back. This is how Koç Holding operates. We do not take unnecessary risks and we want to make sure if we're going to get into a new sector, we have -- that has to be paying back. So we are not in a rush, but at the same time, that doesn't mean that we are not concentrated on this. We are very much concentrated. But these things doesn't happen overnight. Thank you. Let's go for the other questions.

Operator

The last question from Samarth Agrawal is, "Do you have a targeted range of sector allocation within your portfolio? Or is the portfolio construction mainly based on individual assets and their potential for value addition?"

P
Polat Sen
executive

We do not have any targeted range.

Operator

The next question comes from Hanzade Kilickiran with JPMorgan. And I quote, "Polat Bey, thank you very much for the presentation. Do you see any guidance risk on your portfolio companies given relatively weak 1Q volumes in Turkey, excluding Arcelik?"

P
Polat Sen
executive

Among our group companies, only Tofas and TürkTraktör made guidance revision this quarter, looking at the recent trends and 2024 expectations. Tofas has streamed down domestic retail sales and production and TürkTraktör has reduced exports. Our company are monitoring and making revisions, if needed, but for the other companies, as I told you, I mean, the first quarter, because of the election economy, is going to be very different than the quarters later.

So we are going to see a different picture. For some sectors, it's going to be more positive, for some sectors, it's going to be less positive or negative even compared to '23 but I think for revision, it would be better to wait for the second -- end of second quarter, that would be a better timing for revision. Thank you.

Operator

The second part of the question is, in case of a sizable asset diversity, such as Yapi Kredi, is there a particular asset that you have been keeping an eye to proceed for an acquisition? And would Koç Holding consider distributing higher dividends in end of sizable cash inflows?

P
Polat Sen
executive

As we do not -- we did not decide to sell any of our assets, we do not know how much money intake we will have. So when you're looking for assets, you're looking at what you have. And there are also bigger opportunities, bigger ticket size opportunities in the market as well, which we are not looking at that closely as of today because we do not have any big disposal of our assets. And as I told you, there is nothing concrete on this issue.

But of course, this is going to be -- I mean, it's very early to really comment on this question how much -- what we are going to sell, how much we are going to get, how much we're going to spend, how much dividend is going to be there? What is going to be the economic issue -- economic downturn or upturn in the coming 1 year, let me say, until the dividend time comes.

So I think we need some more time because I can give you a lot of explanations, but there will be at least 10 scenarios that I can talk about. But in order to really get somewhere, we really need to see -- we really need to narrow down the possibilities first. We are still far away from this position, so I can't really tell you if we're going to be distributing higher dividends or not. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to management for any closing comments. Thank you.

P
Polat Sen
executive

All right. Thank you very much for listening to us. If you have any further questions, our IR team is ready to help. Thank you very much once again.

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