Coca-Cola Icecek AS

IST:CCOLA.E

Earnings Call Analysis

CCI Faces Challenges Yet Achieves Strong Financial Metrics and Market Share Growth

In Q3 2024, CCI reported net sales revenue of TRY 36.7 billion, a 9.3% year-on-year decline, but a 24.8% increase when excluding inflation accounting. Despite a volume drop of 9.2%, CCI’s gross margin improved by 129 basis points, achieving a 17.6% EBIT margin. Notably, net income reached TRY 5.2 billion, with 2.1% growth, aided by effective cost management. Strategic pricing adjustments resulted in a record $2.70 net sales revenue per unit case, up 9.9% year-on-year. Looking ahead, CCI revised sales volume guidance to a low to mid-single-digit decline and expects FX-neutral net sales revenue growth of 10% to 20%.

Performance Amid Challenges

In the third quarter of 2024, Coca-Cola İçecek (CCI) reported TRY 36.7 billion in net sales revenue (NSR), reflecting a 9.3% decline year-on-year. However, excluding inflation adjustments, NSR rose to TRY 39.6 billion – a robust 24.8% improvement driven by a strategic focus on product quality and mix. Despite the volume decline, the company's efforts in cost management yielded a notable 129-basis points year-on-year improvement in gross margin.

Key Financial Metrics

CCI's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin stood at an impressive 17.6% for Q3, and cumulatively, maintained a 16.3% margin over the first nine months of the year. The net income reached TRY 5.2 billion for the quarter, representing 2.1% year-on-year growth when adjusted for inflation, showcasing the effectiveness of operational management despite external pressures.

Volume and Price Dynamics

Total volume sold decreased by 9.2% to 438 million unit cases. Sparkling beverage volumes specifically fell 12% due to reduced purchasing power, while still beverages saw a commendable growth of 6.8%. The average NSR per unit case reached $2.70, the highest in a decade, attributed to prudent pricing strategies that considered the economic environment.

Strategic Focus Areas

CCI's management emphasized a diversified portfolio, with the stills category now accounting for 9.6% of total sales volume. Small packages and immediate consumption formats have gained popularity, with immediate consumption packages increasing 307 basis points year-on-year, reaching 29.4%. This highlights CCI's adaptive approach to evolving consumer preferences.

Guidance and Future Outlook

Looking ahead, CCI revised its full-year sales volume guidance from flat growth to a low mid-single-digit decline, while maintaining EBIT margin guidance at slight decline or flat compared to the previous year. The FX-neutral net sales revenue growth guidance was also adjusted from a low 30% to a high 10% to 20%. The company's leadership remains cautiously optimistic about the operational landscape, citing improved fundamentals and competitive positioning.

Financial Health and Debt Management

As of the end of Q3 2024, CCI's net debt was reported at USD 722 million, marking an increase to 1x EBITDA due to strategic acquisitions. The company successfully managed its liquidity, indicated by a strong balance sheet and reduced reliance on external Eurobond financing, focusing on local currency bonds for short-term needs.

Resilience in Difficult Markets

Despite being impacted by macroeconomic pressures in key markets, including Turkey, CCI has retained its competitive edge, achieving a 3.4 percentage points gain in sparkling market share domestically. The company aims to sustain its affordability while strategically navigating pricing and mix management to capture future growth.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and I would like to welcome you to Coca-Cola Icecek conference call and live webcast to present and discuss 2024 Third Quarter Financial Operating Results.

We are here with the management team and today's speakers are the CEO, Mr. Karim Yahi; and the CFO, Mr. Erdi Kursunoglu.

Before starting, I would like to kindly remind you to review the disclaimer on the webcast presentation. After the call, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Melda Oztoprak, Investor Relations Senior Manager. Madam, the floor is yours. Please go ahead.

[Melda Oztoprak, executive]

Good morning, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining our third quarter results webcast. As the operator said, I'm here with our CEO, Karim Yahi; and CFO, Erdi Kursunoglu.

Today's remarks will be accompanied by a slide deck. We will then turn the call over to your questions. Before we begin, please kindly be advised of our cautionary statement. The conference call may contain forward-looking management comments, including projections. These should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary language contained in our earnings release. A copy of our earnings release and financials are available on our website as usual.

In addition, in accordance with the decree of the Capital Markets Board, our third quarter financials are reported using TAS29, financial reporting hyperinflationary economies. The financial figures in this presentation and all comparative amounts for previous periods have been adjusted according to the changes in the general purchasing power of the Turkish Lira in accordance with TAS29 and are finally expressed in terms of the purchasing power of the Turkish Lira as of September 30, 2024.

However, certain items from our financials are also presented without inflation adjustment for information purposes. These unaudited figures are clearly identified as such. Also, our 2024 guidance is given on an organic basis and without any potential impact from the implementation of TAS29. Following the call, a full transcript will be made available as soon as possible on our website.

Now, let me turn the call over to Karim.

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Thank you, Melda. Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining CCI's third quarter results webcast. We have just closed a challenging quarter, facing ongoing macroeconomic pressures, declining consumer purchasing power and continuing spillover from the conflict in the Middle East. However, at CCI, we have stayed focused on what we can impact. By prioritizing our quality mix management and maintaining our execution standards, we have continued to create sustainable value for all our stakeholders.

Despite short-term challenges, our operating region continues to offer significant long-term opportunities, and we keep on investing, improving our execution and creating positive results. We are confident about our strategic direction and the robust fundamentals in our operating countries where per capita consumption of commercial beverages is still very low and therefore, offers significant growth potential.

In the third quarter of 2024, CCI's consolidated volume was down by 9.2% compared to the previous year, reaching 438-million-unit cases while the decline in the number of transactions was relatively less. Despite this volume decline, we continued growing in smaller packages, in higher value channels and categories, all in line with our long-term strategy.

We are also quite proud to see that robust performance of Iraq and Azerbaijan continued and Kazakhstan gradually recovered from the strong base of previous periods.

In the third quarter of 2024, we made significant progress in diversifying our portfolio with the stills category now accounting for 9.6% of total sales volume, up from 8.2% last year. Moreover, CCI's dedicated focus on quality mix and execution paved the way for a year-to-date market share expansion as well as progress towards our long-term strategic aspiration.

CCI's volume share in sparkling in Turkiye improved by 3.4 percentage points as of September versus December 2023. In addition, in Kazakhstan, our volume market share in sparkling category has increased by 18 basis points year-on-year as of September end on a year-to-date trading basis versus same period last year.

In the third quarter of 2024, we have recorded a consolidated revenue of TRY 36.7 billion. This was coupled with 129 basis points expansion in gross profit margin and 10 basis point improvement in EBITDA margin year-on-year. Ultimately, we are proud to see that we have managed our margins within an acceptable range given the volume pressures we have faced.

And also delivered a 9-month EBIT margin of 16.3%, which is flat versus same period last year. Last but not the least, we have broken new records in our financials in the third quarter. Accordingly, we have reported a $2.70 net sales revenue per unit case, marking the highest net sales revenue per unit case generation in USD terms within the third quarters of the last decade, excluding inflation accounts.

Next slide, please. In the third quarter of 2024, in our key regions, consumers and customers have been under pressure due to macroeconomic difficulties, coupled with the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Persistent high inflation, lack of minimum wage adjustments and weakening consumer purchasing power have negatively impacted demand. We have also noticed that weakening purchasing power has particularly affected our sparkling beverages as they tend to be more discretionary vis-a-vis the stills beverages. As a result, while our sparkling volume decreased by 12% year-over-year, our stills volume showed good growth with a 6.8% year-over-year increase, highlighting the importance of portfolio diversification. In this context, CCI has focused on the areas we can manage an [indiscernible].

In addition to the improvements in category mix, immediate consumption packages continued its upward trajectory in the third quarter of 2024 as well. With a 307 basis points year-on-year increase, reaching 29.4% on top of 216 basis points year-on-year improvement recorded in the third quarter of 2023. From a channel perspective, share of our volume in traditional channel increased by 46 basis points year-on-year on top of 79 basis points increase realized in the third quarter of 2023.

Next slide, please. In the third quarter of 2024, Turkiye saw a 12.2% year-over-year decline in volume, reaching 176-million-unit cases. High inflation has severely impacted consumers with the official headline inflation index rising sevenfold since 2018. While we have observed reduction in retail trade confidence index, tourist arrivals also showed -- also slowed to just 3% growth this past summer, a sharp decline from the 40% average growth seen in the previous 2 years. In addition, lack of minimum wage adjustment in July also negatively impacted our operation.

On the other hand, CCI's dedicated focus on quality mix and daily execution paved the way for a market share expansion as well as progress towards our long-term strategic ambition to evolve with our consumers and customers. In the third quarter of 2024, the share of low and no sugar products in Turkiye sparkling beverages grew by 90 basis points year-over-year, reaching 6.4%.

Fuse Tea also continued its strong performance, expanding by 6.6% year-over-year on top of a 22.9% increase in the third quarter of 2023. Additionally, the share of immediate consumption packages rose by 181 basis points. Last but not the least, effective execution and quality customer service resulted in a notable 3.4 percentage point increase in sparkling volume market share as of September versus December 2023. In the end, we have realized a 29% year-on-year increase in net sales revenue and 47% improvement in net sales revenue per unit case, excluding inflation accounting.

Note that this growth is behind the inflation prevailing in the country and is mostly attributable to mix management strategies rather than pricing actions, considering our deliberate choice of prudent pricing to remain affordable amid weakening purchasing power of our consumers. Successful management of our cost base in Turkiye supported profitability, and hence, we have realized 550 basis points year-on-year improvement in gross profit margin and 153 basis points year-on-year EBITDA margin in the third quarter of 2024.

Next slide, please. Excluding Pakistan, which is facing similar difficulties as Turkiye, our international operations saw a 1.3% year-on-year volume growth in the third quarter of 2024. When accounting for the 22.9% decline in Pakistan, total international volume reached 262-million-unit cases, reflecting a 7.1% year-over-year decrease. Iraq and Azerbaijan continued their strong growth momentum and recorded 6.7% and 6.2% year-on-year increase in the third quarter of 2024.

Similarly, Kazakhstan gradually recovered from the high base of the previous year and stood flat versus the third quarter of 2023. By category, the Adult Sparkling Premium segment, including Schweppes, experienced a remarkable 30% year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2024, driven by a strong focus in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Additionally, the immediate consumption packages share in our international operations increased by 36-basis points year-on-year, building on a 383-basis points expansion of the third quarter of 2023.

In international operations, net sales revenue improved by 2.3%, while without the impact of inflation adjustment, 21.5% growth is recorded. Special focus on quality mix positively impacted net sales revenue in international operations, while due to macroeconomic challenges and our objective to remain affordable, price increases were either delayed or limited. Nevertheless, international operations delivered $2.5 net sales revenue per unit case, excluding inflationary accounting, up by 4.6% versus the same period last year. On the other hand, we have recorded 458-basis points EBITDA margin contraction year-on-year, mostly due to the limited price increases and the impact of limited scale on our fixed costs.

Next slide, please. Among our largest international markets, Kazakhstan sales volume was flattish year-on-year. In the previous quarters, we had been impacted by the high base of 2023 as we used to build summer stocking and had experienced an increase in the consumer base with the inflow of people coming from neighboring countries. As a solid proof of our dedication to investing ahead of demand and building per capita consumption growth, we have opened our newest factory this year. And thanks to this new factory, summer stocking will be ended and faster execution in all regions of Kazakhstan will be enabled.

As such, we have observed 117-basis points year-on-year increase in on-premise channel share and also our volume market share in sparkling category has increased by 18-basis points year-on-year as of September end on a year-to-date trailing basis versus same period last year. After experiencing a 26.7% year-on-year volume growth in the third quarter of 2023, Uzbekistan sales volume declined by 6.5% in the third quarter of 2024. This drop can be attributed to the high base from last year and the reduced consumer purchasing power following the introduction of the excise tax on April 1 of this year.

However, improved execution in the field has yielded strong results with cooler coverage rising to 82.4% from 75% a year ago. Additionally, the share of the on-premise channel grew by 108-basis points year-over-year, reaching 13.2%. Pakistan continues to experience macroeconomic challenges with the IMF package deal yet to be finalized, new taxation on salaries and consumer confidence remaining low.

To address these difficulties, we have focused on making our products more affordable through returnable glass bottles, while implementing other revenue growth management actions. This plan has led to a 365-basis point increase in our immediate consumption share and a 69-basis point rise in the on-premise channel share year-on-year. The share of returnable glass bottles in sparkling beverages also increased by 179-basis points year-on-year.

Now I will leave the floor to Erdi for the financial review.

[Erdi Kursunoglu, executive]

Thank you, Karim. Hello, everyone, and thank you once again for joining our webcast. In the third quarter, we have delivered TRY 36.7 billion net sales revenue, which I will call NSR from now on with 9.3% year-on-year decline, mirroring our volume performance in the quarter. Excluding the impact of inflation accounting, NSR reached TRY 39.6 billion with 24.8% year-on-year growth, thanks to our continued focus on quality mix. Our good focus on cost management has continued to support our gross margin positively, and we have recorded 129-basis points year-on-year increase in gross margin in the third quarter of 2024.

On the flip side, lack of sufficient scale in volume impacted our OpEx margin as approximately 40% of our OpEx is composed of fixed expenses. Consequently, we have delivered 17.6% EBIT margin in the third quarter and 16.3% cumulative in 9 months this year, both historically remarkable figures with almost flat year-on-year margin performance. Lastly, our net income was TRY 5.2 billion in third quarter despite a much lower monetary gain compared to the third quarter of 2023 as the inflation coefficient was higher in the third quarter of 2023 versus this year, which created a significantly higher base to cycle. And excluding inflation accounting, our net income in the third quarter reached TRY 4.4 billion with 2.1% year-on-year growth.

Next slide, please. On a per unit basis, our NSR was flat both in quarter 3 and year-to-date compared to last year. And in quarter 3, it reached TRY 83.8 due to the deliberate choice of prudent price adjustments we made as we have been mindful of reduced purchasing power of our consumers. Without the impact of inflation accounting, NSR per UC growth realized at 37.4% year-on-year, thanks to effective mix management actions, which includes higher share of smaller packs and portfolio diversification with increased presence of stills category. In dollar terms, we have delivered 10-year high NSR per UC with $2.7 and with 9.9% year-on-year growth. Thanks to proactive and smart procurement measures, we managed to contain COGS per UC well with a 2.1% year-on-year decline in the third quarter of 2024, and we successfully kept COGS per UC growth below NSR per UC growth.

On the other hand, excluding inflation accounting, COGS per UC increase was similar to NSR per UC increase year-over-year. Nevertheless, EBIT per UC slightly down in quarter 3 by 5.4% in TL terms, reflecting the impact of limited economies of scale during the quarter. And excluding the impact of inflation accounting, our EBIT per UC growth in the third quarter became 22.2%, thanks to our good OpEx management. And this, coupled with the first half successful COGS performance helped us to reach a 9-month EBIT per UC of $0.50, which is the highest USD EBIT per UC level in the 9 months of the last decade.

Next slide, please. We continue to win with our proactive approach in procurement, which created a significant support to our improved gross margin during 2024. As 2024 is almost over now and as we have 100% -- almost 100% visibility on the cost for this year, we increased our focus on the commodity hedging initiatives for 2025. In markets where sugar can be hedged, namely Iraq and Jordan, we covered 69% of our sugar needs for 2025. And with the pre-buys in other markets, our total sugar coverage corresponds to 6% for next year as of the end of third quarter. For aluminum and resin, we already have 40% and 26% coverage, respectively, for 2025. As per current market conditions, we are comfortable with our hedge positions and coverage, but we will continue to act diligently on this and we'll continue to monitor market opportunities.

Next slide, please. While our consolidated EBIT margin is slightly down by 98-basis points year-on-year in the third quarter, on a 9-month cumulative basis, we have delivered flattish EBIT margin year-on-year. Our operating income growth has been mainly impacted by volume development and our prudent [indiscernible] pricing initiatives, considering the limitations in consumers' purchasing power. On a positive note, we managed to curb raw material costs significantly and realized 129-basis points gross profit margin improvement, as mentioned earlier. And lastly, excluding inflation accounting, our EBIT grew by 11% year-on-year.

On to next slide, please. As a result of our tight financial policy, our balance sheet continues to be strong and flexible. Our net debt was USD 722 million end of quarter 3, which is only 1x of our EBITDA. This is slightly up from 0.8x end of 2023 due to Bangladesh Anadolu Efes Pakistan acquisition this year. We have a long FX position after net investment hedge this quarter at positive $26 million level. During third quarter, we paid back our 2024 Eurobond of $300 million, which matured in September. And with that now, our average maturity increased to 3.2 years.

This creates an additional comfort zone to manage and plan our liquidity in the globally volatile monetary conditions. Currently, we do not have a plan to issue another Eurobond in the short term as Turkish lira bonds are sufficient to cater our short-term financing needs. However, we are constantly monitoring the market. And in case there is any opportunity to maintain a healthy balance sheet and strong liquidity position, we may be considered.

Now back to Karim for his closing remarks, and thank you.

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Thank you, Erdi. For the closing remarks, I would like to remind you of our playbook, which is our formula for winning in our markets. After covering investing ahead of demand and route-to-market improvements and distributor development in the previous webcast available on our Investor Relations website. Today, I would like to share more about revenue growth management. We often receive the question of either if we are pricing too much or if we are missing out any opportunity in pricing.

Similarly, pricing is sometimes perceived as the first item that comes up to mind when we discuss revenue growth. At CCI, we see things differently. Building upon the development in behavioral economics, neuro marketing and the correlation between macroeconomic factors and consumer preferences, we have built a strong revenue growth management capability in-house. For us, revenue growth management is not only about pricing. In fact, pricing is the last recourse when creating revenue growth plans. Volume growth, mix management, trade promo optimization and finally, pricing are the 4 levers of CCI's revenue growth management capability. As for the first item, volume growth, CCI is well positioned to capture growth potential in our country.

Again, our countries on average have less per capita nonalcoholic ready-to-drink beverage consumption than most of the emerging markets. Therefore, representing volume growth headroom for the future. In addition, our countries also carry a natural hedge among each other as some are oil importers while others are oil exporters. And in order to capture the volume growth potential, together with our colleagues at -- the Coca-Cola Company, we work on opportunity mapping to identify and prioritize the growth potential of our market.

Second, mix management. We are optimizing the occasion, brand, package, price, channel choices so that we can offer the most value-enhancing SKU in the right channel at the right price, serving the right occasion with the right brand. Our constant focus on growing on-premise channel, immediate consumption share and diversifying portfolio categories are the clear results of our indispensable focus on risk management.

Third, trade promo optimization. In order to incentivize sales growth, we frequently invest in promotions in our customers in order to create win-win business cases. Relying on big data and artificial intelligence, we detect the best return on investment, delivering promotional activities that optimize our promotional spending while enhancing returns.

Finally, value-driven pricing. We are thoroughly analyzing consumers' purchasing power, macroeconomic conditions, including real food and beverage inflation and consumers' willingness to pay for certain brands, thanks to price elasticity analysis through consumer conjoint studies. As we are market leaders in most of our operating regions, we are aware of our responsibility when it comes to pricing decisions. The interdependence and dynamic nature of revenue management between these 4 levers are key for us in order to unlock sustainable revenue growth. Thanks to our revenue growth management capability, we have successfully delivered $2.70 net sales revenue per unit case as of the third quarter of 2024, up from $1.67 recorded 6 years ago. And this quarterly performance of $2.70 net sales revenue per unit case is above the cost inflation we have recorded in dollars and has paved the way to create the good margin performance we have delivered in the third quarter.

Next slide, please. Finally, we would like to share our view on the remainder of the year. Q3 2024 is confirming the persistent nature of high inflation, the spillover of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the corresponding prolonged dent on consumer confidence as well as weakening purchasing power in our key operating regions. Accordingly, we are revising our full year sales volume guidance from flat to low single-digit growth to low to mid-single-digit volume decline.

We are also adjusting our FX-neutral net sales revenue growth guidance from low 30s percent growth to high 10% to 20% growth. However, we are maintaining our EBIT margin guidance at slight decline to flat compared to last year, supported by timely hedging and our commitment to strict OpEx management. Within this unprecedented challenging context, despite volume being under pressure, we have strengthened our fundamentals by increasing competitiveness and making progress towards our long-term strategic aspiration by accelerating small packages, diversifying our beverages portfolio and growing faster in traditional trade and on-premise channels.

Our relentless focus on quality revenue growth and cost control have both contributed to manage margin within an acceptable range. The past quarter is a reminder of the volatile nature of our operating countries, yet CCI has once again stepped up to the challenge to focus on the fundamentals of our business and strengthen our competitive advantage in order to capture the significant long-term growth and value creation opportunity of our low per capita markets. Despite the challenges we face, our teams have achieved remarkable improvements in market share and enhanced our quality mix. We are confident in our ability to drive even greater success in the future.

Now we will be happy to answer your questions. Dear Agents, over to you.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Okay. Perhaps, we can start with the 2 text questions. The first text question is from Mr. Harry Wu.

Given the very high interest rate environment in Turkey, can management discuss current debt levels? Why not allocate capital to debt repayment versus CapEx, particularly in this weak consumer environment?

[Erdi Kursunoglu, executive]

Thank you for the question. Yes, we are aware of Turkish lira borrowing costs, which are high at the moment, but that's yet with an expectation to go down. And that's why when we do it, we do it selectively and on our TL Turkish lira reference basis as we expect rates to go down. And on the portion of our long-term debt, we have very competitive rates. So that is how we manage overall our position. And as for CapEx versus debt payments, repayments, as you might have seen, we have already decreased our gross debt in the quarter by approximately $140 million, which is a significant improvement quarter-over-quarter being cognizant of the situation.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. [indiscernible] from [indiscernible].

How much appetite do you have for inorganic growth at this point? Are you focused on organic growth in markets you currently operate in? Are acquisitions possible in nearby important markets like India?

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Thank you for the question. As you know, we have recently acquired Bangladesh and our first focus right now is to integrate Bangladesh. The integration process is going well despite the fact that, again, Bangladesh has experienced some significant headwinds since acquisition. Just to remind everyone, a new tax was imposed right after our acquisition. There was a regime change or government change with the local unrest. And unfortunately, this has been then coupled with flood. So it's not stopped our appetite for integrating Bangladesh well. So we are focused right now on the first phase, which is focusing on the route to market, focusing on implementing our distributor model and focusing on creating the right capability to grow the business further.

[Operator]

We have the next question comes from Mr. Gustavo Campos from Jefferies.

[Gustavo Finatti Campos, analyst]

Can you hear me?

[Operator]

Yes, please go ahead.

[Gustavo Finatti Campos, analyst]

Okay. I had a few questions. Is there any expectation on performance in Pakistan to improve? Is there a timeline or a view there on what's going to drive our performance improvement there? That's my first question.

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Thank you for the question. Pakistan is right now still in the process of context going towards improvement. Having said that, as you may know, the IMF deal has been signed, but the impact has not been felt yet into the market. So that's number one. Number two, the local environment still remains under pressure when you think about the level of poverty that has actually significantly increased, unfortunately, during the year 2024 and the increased taxes that have been imposed on salaries during 2024. So when you combine all this, right now, I think that Pakistan's overall macroeconomic and social context will improve. But right now, it is in the process of improving, but we haven't seen yet the economic growth that will enable growth in NARTD and growth in our business, right? Our focus is really on maintaining affordability.

So that's why we're focusing on returnable glass, for instance, that has been growing faster than the rest of the portfolio and catching the opportunities that make sense for us strategically for the long term. So continuing to push on on-premise and again, glass bottles in on-premise, so -- and pushing consumption to continue to remain affordable and to continue to capture the opportunities for channels growing faster right now in the economy.

[Gustavo Finatti Campos, analyst]

Very clear and very helpful. My second question was more towards the strategy in Turkiye. Of course, the inflationary environment has been very challenging there. And you mentioned that repricing as far as the trends that you -- and the strategy that you have implemented has been kind of like the last part of this equation, right? So just trying to understand better from here, is there a preference to prioritize volume growth as opposed to repricing moving forward? Or are you just going to keep trying to find this optimal balance between the 2? The second question.

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Thank you. Great question. And again, as I explained earlier, as CCI when we implement revenue growth management, pricing is the last [ resort ]. That's the one that we go to after having explored everything else we can do, mix management, trade optimization, SKU rationalization. And then we look at pricing. Why? Because there are other dimensions there. There is consumer willingness to pay. There are all the dimensions of disposable income coming in the picture, et cetera. Now right now, our focus in Turkiye is to continue to create our -- to strengthen our competitiveness in the market. So as you have seen, we have actually regained more than 3 percentage points of share in sparkling over the past few months, which is very good. We continue to focus on that.

We continue to be affordable, but balance the equation so that we can, on one side, offer affordability through entry-level packs on one side of the spectrum, be affordable on the other side of the spectrum with the high future consumption occasion and managing in between. So it's a balancing act. There is no secret formula there. It's really a balancing act about again, being competitive in the market, being affordable for consumers, protecting key price points.

[Gustavo Finatti Campos, analyst]

Perfect. And then my last question would be on your greenfield projects in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Maybe you commented this already. But if you could just clarify for me, is there like a percentage of completion on these projects? And what is the expected CapEx as a percentage of sales for next year? That's my last question.

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Great question. And I'm happy to report that both new greenfields in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are already operational. So we inaugurated them a few months ago, and they are already working right now. As of CapEx as a percentage of revenue, we will come back to everyone when we share guidance, right? But right now, both greenfields are already operational.

[Gustavo Finatti Campos, analyst]

Perfect. And my follow-up was if -- where do you see CapEx as a percentage of sales as far as 2025, you think it's going to stay in line with the average? Or could we see perhaps like an increase in discretionary investments?

[Karim Yahi, executive]

So look, we don't disclose this as early as now, right? So we come back at the beginning of the year on our guidance on this. But overall, I would say that we have right now good capacity to face growth aspiration for 2025.

[Operator]

We have a question from [indiscernible] from OYAK Asset Management.

Can you give us a little more color on the 2025 outlook? Do you expect further margin pressure going forward?

[Karim Yahi, executive]

So 2 things here. Thank you for the question. First, context will be challenging. Now having said that, within this context, we'll be focused on creating quality growth and sustainable value for our shareholders, our stakeholders, our consumers, our customers, the communities we serve and our people. But right now, we don't have any guidance to share right now. We will come back at the beginning of 2025 to share it.

But we are working actually right now with our teams to create our plans, our business plan for 2025, and we will update everyone in due course at the beginning of 2025. But again, our objective is to recreate growth and continue to create sustainable value for all our stakeholders. But we are working actually right now with our teams to create our plan -- our business plan for 2025, and we will update everyone in due course at the beginning of 2025. But again, our objective is to recreate growth and continue to create sustainable value for all our stakeholders.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. [indiscernible] from [indiscernible].

Consumers' behavior experienced the significant changes today. So what are your expectations for product mix? And how is it going to affect your financials?

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Thank you. Great question. Look, -- our promise to ourselves and to the market is that we will evolve with consumers, right? So as consumers look for more convenience, as consumers look for more choice, as consumers evolve, we want to evolve with them. So what does it mean? It means from a product standpoint, you see that consumers, all of us, we aspire to have more choice. So -- and that's why, for instance, you see that we are pushing, for example, no to low sugar beverages like Coca-Cola Zero, for example, et cetera.

On the other side, you see that consumers also aspire to have more still beverages. So that's why, for example, we have Fuse Tea, for example, that we are growing and offering in our markets. So that's really from a product standpoint. And you see the convenience that comes with it is the fact that consumers also want to have more choices in terms of packaging. So that's why we also want to go with consumers and offer them more convenience in packaging. So hence, our focus on small packs and therefore, even consumption. And then last but not the least, as consumers in our markets, again, low per capita market, as consumers evolve, as urbanization grows, consumers also aspire to go more to restaurants, for example, right? So -- and therefore, the on-premise channel is important for us.

And we grow within on-premise channel, and that is why it is also an important area of strategic focus for us. So again, we evolve with consumers. We offer to consumers more diversification in terms of portfolio, so products we offer the consumers more choice in terms of small pack versus big packs to help them in their aspiration for convenience. And last but not the least, we evolve with consumers as they go more to restaurants, et cetera, and we grow our share in on-premise. So we evolve with the changing demands from consumers in our regions.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from [indiscernible] from [ Play Invest ].

Pakistan presents significant long-term potential. Could you share how we should think about volume growth on a consolidated basis over the few years, particularly considering both the challenges and opportunities in the market?

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Thank you. Great question. Look, Pakistan has an industry per capita of 134, right? Our average at CCI is 407, in emerging markets average is 493 , right? So completely agree with you, significant opportunity in the industry. Now our per capita within Pakistan within the industry of 134 is 36, right? So it's a significant opportunity for us. So it is the land -- one of our country for growth opportunity because of the lower capita.

Now looking into the future, I think that over time, if you look at the past 15 years, if the past is an indication of what the future could look like, I would look at the Pakistan volume growth for the past 15 years and think about the future. And again, in the spirit of having the past being a good indicator for the future, again, considering the low per capita of Pakistan.

[Operator]

Okay. Next question is from Mr. Maksim Nekrasov from Citi.

Question is about Turkey. You mentioned about 3 percentage point market share gain in Turkey this year. Where do you see the gains coming from?

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Thank you for the question. Yes. So very proud of what the team in Turkiye has delivered. So we have gained 3.4 percentage point market share in sparkling in September 2024 versus December 2023. Where it comes from, 3 things, really. So one, we have been very, very cautious about pricing. Again, we focused on maintaining key price points for entry-level packs as well as for future consumption packs. So the highest-selling SKUs, we have worked to protect them. So in order to remain affordable within the context of the high inflationary context of Turkiye. So that's one. So very, very cautious about pricing.

Number two, very strong focus on mix management, right, clearly, targeting on-premise, targeting traditional channel to capture growth opportunities. And number three, clearly, very strong execution with the teams doing remarkable job at going to the customer, again, explaining our value proposition and looking for win-win solutions to grow the business. And last but not the least, obviously, again, immediate consumption -- and packages -- small packages, sorry, and small packages push growing versus prior year. So again, when you combine all this, you have the 3.4% market share gain in sparkling in Turkiye.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from [indiscernible] from JPMorgan.

[Unknown Analyst]

Sorry, is it me?

[Operator]

Yes, please go ahead.

[Unknown Analyst]

All right. Okay. Sorry, I couldn't hear my name. I would like to make a follow-up on the cost side because we noticed that you had significant improvement, particularly in Turkey, thanks to your favorable cost contracts. But going into 2025, do you still see opportunity to keep this favorable cost base? And how does the, I mean, currency look like in your contracts?

And the second question is that you highlighted about a shift to immediate consumption, change in product mix as a key highlight for the revenue management, which is very positive. However, we cannot still see this in NCR per unit case because this shift is supposed to improve your NCR per unit case in real terms as well, but we can't observe it. And I just wonder if there is opportunity for you to improve this next bit as the consumption headwinds ease.

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Thank you for the question. I'm going to take the revenue -- gross management question and then my colleague, Erdi, our CFO, will take the cost question. So on -- yes, it is consumption improvement, you do not see it in volume unit cases because relatively speaking, we're talking about the small packs versus the big packs. So therefore, you're not going to see it in the total volumetric performance. That is correct. Having said that, you see its impact into the net sales revenue per unit case growth. And that is where really you find the impact financially there.

And for instance, in Q3, in dollar terms to make things comparable and easy, overall, we have generated $2.70 net revenue per unit case. That was the highest in the past 10 years, and that is 9.9% above last year in USD terms. And adding above also cost of goods sold per unit case inflation. So you see it financially in the NSR per unit case, right, or the NSR per bottle, if you wish.

And you see it in our ability to recruit more consumers, right, and to basically create the right base to continue recruiting consumers in the future and to continue to create positive net revenue [indiscernible] and margin improvement in the future.

Now I'm going to turn over to my colleague, Erdi for the cost question.

[Erdi Kursunoglu, executive]

Thank you. It's about 2025 cost. As Karim mentioned, we are in the planning phase at the moment. But in terms of levels, it looks favorable for now. But again, early to comment, and we will have more clarity in the coming months up until the beginning of the year. But we have indicated our coverages. And at the moment, based on the coverages we have secured, again, I can make that we have a favorable outlook, carefully optimistic outlook for next year. But thank you for the question. This is very important for us.

[Unknown Analyst]

I mean on the -- I just want to make a follow-up on the NCR per unit case in U.S. dollar terms. I mean we know that the dollar increase is largely because of the limited Turkish lira depreciation. So do you think that in 2025 or in the next few years, this dollar amount can be maintained also in U.S. dollar terms if there is going to be any FX move or something like this?

So that's what I'm trying to understand because quite clearly against the inflation, we don't see the improvement. But in dollar terms, obviously, there is a substantial improvement, thanks to limited Turkish lira depreciation. And do you think that this is a dollar, I mean, achievement or Turkish lira achievement? I'm trying to understand the trend here.

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Thank you. Good question. Look, we are working on our business plan right now. So we're working to look at the impact of currency and inflation for next year. So it's a little bit early to comment on 2025. Having said that, when you benchmark us versus other bottlers on net sales revenue per unit case, we have always indicated that the $2.5 per unit case range is a good range. Having said that, there is always some opportunities as right now, we have $2.7, right, $2.7 per unit case. And some of our bottlers peers are more in the $4 to $5 per unit case.

So -- we are working on our targets for next year. We are putting all this together. But again, we -- I think the best way would be to benchmark us versus other bottlers and looking at the other bottlers that have similar per capita. But again, we want to be careful about remaining affordable to create volume growth, right? And then again, working on all the other levers on mix management, on SKU, on package mix, on category mix, on channel mix, on trade promotions in order to create net revenue per unit case without necessarily touching pricing. But again, we have always indicated that the $2.5 per unit case is a good number. Right now, we are at $2.7. So we are into this range that is for us a good range.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from Evgeniya Bystrova from Barclays.

[Evgeniya Bystrova, analyst]

Yes. Sorry if I repeat the question. I was a little bit late to the call. Could you please provide more color in terms of your CapEx expectation for the full year because it's still elevated during 9 months? And also, what are your expectations for next year?

[Karim Yahi, executive]

So thank you for the question. We did cover some of it earlier on. So look, this year, because of the new greenfields that we have opened, namely our new greenfield in Kazakhstan and our new greenfield in Uzbekistan, yes, our CapEx over revenue in 2024 looks a little bit higher, higher single digit -- high single digit, sorry, CapEx over revenue versus the overall average that we would have. So it means that, yes, right now, we don't think that next year is going to repeat itself. So it's going to come back to the more average of what we typically have over like 20 years or something like that. But we will come back to everyone early 2025 with more precise guidance on CapEx over revenue as well as the rest of the business.

[Evgeniya Bystrova, analyst]

Okay. And also, again, apologies if you covered this before, but could you please provide a breakdown of your international EBITDA between maybe Pakistan and Kazakhstan?

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Erdi go ahead.

[Erdi Kursunoglu, executive]

Thank you for the question, but we don't disclose country-based profitability. And thank you for your understanding.

[Operator]

Okay. Thank you very much. We will leave another minute or so for any additional questions to come through. Okay. It looks like that's all we have time for. I'll be passing the line back to the CCI team for the concluding remarks.

[Melda Oztoprak, executive]

Thank you very much, everyone, for joining our webcast. Thank you.

[Karim Yahi, executive]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you very much. This concludes today's conference call. We'll now be closing all the lines. Thank you, and goodbye.