Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii AS

IST:AEFES.E

Earnings Call Transcript 2021-Q1

[Asli Demirel, executive]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Anadolu Efes First Quarter 2021 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Asli Demirel, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations of Anadolu Efes. Our presenters today is Mr. Can Çaka, the CEO; and Orhun Köstem, the CFO. [Operator Instructions] Just to remind you, this conference call is being recorded and the link will be available online.

Before we start, I would kindly request you to refer to our announcement and presentation regarding forward-looking statements. Now I'm leaving the ground to Mr. Can Çaka and Orhun Köstem. Sir?

[Can Çaka, executive]

Thank you, Asli. Hi, everybody. Good afternoon, and good morning, wherever you are. Thank you all for joining our first quarter earnings release call. Apparently, things have not become any easier since our year-end conference call. 2021 has started and continues to be tough, especially in Turkey. However, I can happily say that we have made a pretty strong start to the year driven by the dedication and hard work of the entire Anadolu Efes team under such challenging circumstances. So I just wanted to take the opportunity to thank to the whole team for this strong set of results.

We delivered 13% volume growth in first quarter with the contribution of both business lines. Beer volumes were expanded by almost 5%, with Russia, Kazakhstan and Moldova taking the lead in terms of growth percentages. CCI also had a remarkable performance, both domestically and internationally. In addition, we had a strong revenue growth in the quarter as a result of price increases, favorable product mix and as well as the favorable conversion impact. We also had a good profit performance in the quarter.

In addition to the support of the top line, there has been some shifts between quarters in terms of OpEx, of which we expect partially to be normalized in rest of the year. Therefore, we were able to deliver a better-than-expected revenue and margin performance in the quarter. As noted in our full year results call, we accelerated our focus and investments related to our +1 relaunch in Turkey in order to be ready for the peak season. That is why the OpEx in our Turkish operation was higher compared to a year ago.

We had relaunched Efes family last year with full look-and-feel revitalization, and now we are renewing our look and feel in the field, in the market as we planned at the beginning of the year as we communicated in our call -- prior calls as well. We were also able to beat expectations in terms of free cash flow, with a significant improvement year-on-year basis. But this is supported by a very disciplined working capital management. Thanks to Orhun and his team, obviously here, despite the fact that we increased our market investments incrementally in this quarter to drive consumption and to be ready for the season.

We are continuing to invest on our infrastructure to improve our digital capabilities in order to be more effective and efficient in the post-pandemic era whenever it comes. Therefore, our digital transformation projects, which were awarded by industry experts in the first place, will continue to be at the core of our focus while achieving our long-term targets.

As a recent note, we made an announcement on Monday regarding our intention to emulate the opportunities to refinance our USD, euro bonds that are maturing in 2022. In this figure, we made our application to the Capital Market Board for approval and started the process. So this would be another busy period for our finance team.

In the first quarter, our consolidated volumes reached 23.2 million hectoliters and 31% of our consolidated sales volume changed from beer group. Our revenue growth significantly outperformed the volume increase, exceeding TRY 6 billion and contribution of beer growth of in terms of the revenues was higher compared to the volume proportion, almost reaching to 40% of revenues in the first quarter. EBITDA performance was very strong as well.

This is especially attributable to the performance of soft drinks. International beer margin was also higher in this period. Therefore, consolidated EBITDA margin improved by almost 500 basis points, reaching to 11.6 percentage points in the quarter. Due to the seasonality of our business, free cash flow was negative in the quarter. First quarter is the time our spend is proportionate to Capex, as I noted, to be ready for the peak season, whereas the -- from the revenue and profitability contribution point of view, the first quarter is the lowest among of other quarters.

However, there has been a significant improvement on a year-on-year basis from negative TRY 1 billion last year to a negative TRY 250 million this year. So basically, we are talking about a positive TRY 750 million improvement on the free cash flow generation versus last year. Our beer operations sales volume was up more than 4%, reaching to 7.3 million hectoliters. International operations was the main contributor to the growth.

It was another strong quarter for Russia, where the beer industry grew kind -- around 6% year-on-year according to Rosstat. And for -- and our volumes are even stronger than that. But more importantly, we gained value share compared to the year-end. We are focusing on the value share. So we gained value share in the country. We saw positive dynamics in different price segments and specifically Buds -- beer and Buds showed highest volume growth, increasing more than 25%. Sparkling and still, Anheuser-Busch and licensed brands, registered double-digit growth rates as well.

And also our non-alc offerings had also remarkable performance benefiting from, especially sales through e-commerce channels. However, there has been some deterioration. We followed that, and there has been some deterioration in consumer purchasing power in the period due to the economic competitions following the COVID period. Therefore, we are cautious for the rest of the year.

In Ukraine, the beer market was down by low single digits, and our performance was slightly below the market due to the implemented price increase ahead of the competition in Ukraine. We are expecting our performance to normalize starting from the second quarter onwards when prices are more settled. We continue to have launches in the quarter, offering consumers different tastes and varieties as well. So our efforts are continuing despite all.

I mean, in Ukraine, the number of cases are increasing. Unfortunately, that there is the impact on the market and our performance, specifically in U.K.. Kazakhstan and Moldova both had superior performance. It's close to 20% volume growth, each red. Also, Georgia was also up by low single digits. We are observing every country, some premiumization which is supporting our profitability. But obviously, our focus on where we are most stronghold segment is beer, mainstream segment, and we registered growth in the second half through the period as well.

Turkey, we discussed this several times, is obviously the most impacted from COVID among all the other operations due to the high share of on-trade. Our volumes were impacted the most as a result, especially in the first 2 months of the year, due to the cycling of the pre-COVID period last year. However, we benefited from a temporary reopening in March where the shortfall of the first 2 months was partially mitigated.

So those are positive signs whenever we are out of this pandemic, I would say, things will be -- we expect this to be normalized and be better. During the first quarter, as noted, we accelerated our marketing spend related to our +1 relaunch, and we are seeing early positive signs of stabilization in our market share that is comforting us. Obviously, +1 relaunch around the Efes brand family is positively perceived by our consumers.

A couple of comments on our subsidiary, CCI's consolidated sales volume continued its growth momentum and increased by almost 18% in the first quarter with positive contribution from all countries. International operations had a superior performance, with Pakistan and Jordan taking the lead. There was -- there were obviously lockdowns and restrictions that curbed the number of -- based on the number of COVID cases in Turkey. And despite these headwinds in Turkey, we were able to deliver more than 10% to 12% volume growth.

Sparkling beverages growth was even higher. It registered around 30% increase. Stills category grew more than to 15% with improvements in juice and the energy segments are positive. Water category declined by almost 15%. International operations grew more than 20%, 23%. Pakistan had a superior performance and posted more than 40% volume growth, with consumer and shopper initiatives and regional acceleration plans as well as optimal resource allocations in the country.

In the CIS, the volume growth was more than 8%. Excluding Kazakhstan, all countries recorded double-digit volume growth rates. Middle East posted 9%. And -- but the performance was driven there by Jordan, where the volumes were up more than 40%, 42%, remarkable performance. We have already discussed the operational part in the previous slides, but I would like to go the strong bottom line that we have delivered.

Our net income was almost TRY 300 million in first quarter. It benefited from higher operational profitability, obviously. And also, there were some one-off items like FX gains recorded as a result of repatriated cash flow. This -- there is international chart of the left is that is in order to finance our working capital needs here and also, we sold our land in Lüleburgaz during the period, therefore, gains from the sales supported the bottom line as well as the free cash flow.

Now I'll hand over to Orhun for his remarks on financials. And unfortunately, this would be last call on our side. Actually, Orhun is leading the call. Basically, I would like to thank him for his great contribution to this organization for long years and especially for the last 2 years. Working with him was quite a kind of a pleasure for me. Obviously, Orhun's departure is good for Orhun and is a loss for Anadolu Efes, but I'm happy for Orhun, and that's business, that's life.

I'm pretty happy that we were -- we had a strong bench at Anadolu Efes, and we were able to take the news from Orhun happily. And while being happy for is career, we were able to also name his successor. Gökçe be joining the team here in his stumble of long -- spending long years in international operations, in finance and leading the team. You would remember Orhun paved the way for CFOs having operational experience. So I believe Gökçe's operational experience will also head into our team.

So I'm very confident with this replacement, and I would like to thank Orhun once again. And I don't want to have him crying before he makes final remarks. That's why I'm going to cut short and leave the ground to you. Thank you, Orhun.

[N. Köstem, executive]

Thank you, Can, and many thanks for your kind words. Obviously -- well, it was thrilling for me to be part of the journey for Efes, starting from the Anadolu small business in Turkey. And now today, obviously a very sizable regional beverage business. Many thanks for your leadership and support, especially over the past few years, where we have been making serious changes to the business, which obviously will impact the future years to come.

And as Can was on underlining, I'm quite confident as I pass the flag on to my successor Gökçe, which I'm sure is going to continue raising the bar to better levels. Ladies and gentlemen, and welcome again to our first quarter results webcast for Anadolu Efes. And we're quite happy to report another quarter of strong results. First of all, it's important to note that the first quarter of 2020 was our latest memories of our normal lives.

So basically, growing over that quarter in the first quarter of 2021, we feel was quite important. Even though the rate of rebound is different, as I'm sure you know in alcoholic drinks and beer, obviously, some of the shopping patterns like e-commerce or home delivery are restricted. So in essence, there are different paths and velocity of rebound for our 2 business units.

Coca-Cola Icecek, which I'm sure you must have followed, has announced a very, very strong set of results and obviously, contributed quite significantly to Anadolu Efes' results in this first quarter. Our beer group also, indeed, we have enjoyed very strong growth in volume terms, obviously, 4% ahead of last year. And between the volume growth and the price increases in all of the operations, together with a favorable product mix, we have been able to grow revenues ahead of volumes.

Even on a constant currency basis, our growth was close to 19% revenue. And then EBITDA, we ended up with a slight negative EBITDA. As Can was pointing out, this is -- although we have seen very, very strong performance across our businesses in Kazakhstan, Moldova and Georgia, and very favorable results in Russia and Ukraine compared to last year. Nevertheless, we have been disproportionately spending in Turkey in this first quarter as we prepare ourselves for a very busy season, hopefully, in rest of the year.

And those reparations resulted in a slight negative EBITDA, even though a very serious rebound from last year's first quarter and a 310 basis points margin expansion. But more importantly, as I'm going to walk you through in the next page, a very significant positive swing in free cash flow of the Beer Group, just under TRY 700 million compared to the first quarter of 2020.

So if you look at Anadolu Efes on a consolidated basis, Anadolu Efes has delivered very strong set of results, 13% volume growth, 36.5% revenue growth, which is about 27% on a constant currency basis, an EBITDA margin expansion of about 500 basis points. And again, just under TRY 800 million of a positive free cash flow swing between first quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2021.

If I can walk you through the breakdown of how our EBITDA and free cash flow has grown in the Beer Group, as you see on the EBITDA side is, I was saying, we've seen price increases across all markets. We've seen positive mix in terms of super premium to premium segments of our portfolio growing incrementally faster, which ended up obviously, a very strong revenue generation.

Our cost of sales were up. This year, obviously, we're happy with what we have done in the first quarter of the year in general. And as a reminder, as you will all remember, we have been actively hedging our positions in the cost of sales. And just to give you an indication, in Turkey, we've hedged about 70% to 80% of our FX exposure. For other [ minimum ] and PET, we've hedged about 68% and 43% of our exposure for 2021. And for Turkey, we've covered all our volume requirements.

Nevertheless, we believe the cost evaluation for us in Turkey would be close to 20%. And so, the rest of -- if you look at the commodities, there's obviously a very serious price increase across the commodity space. And these are the things we will need to manage in the rest of the year going forward.

The SG&A expenses, obviously, if you look across the businesses, except for Turkey, all businesses delivered operating expense margins much lower than last year. As we said, in TL case, we are consciously expanding behind our brands, which we feel is the most opportune time for us to enjoy a very good season, and hopefully, rest of the year.

And then the rest other is mainly the currency conversion, which was favorable, which, in turn, almost half the EBITDA loss compared to the first quarter of 2020. And so a good performance that flew into the free cash flow. If you look at the chart below, obviously, the biggest contributor to free cash flow in this period -- the smallest period of the year was the working capital. In all of our operations that was still very, very disciplined. We are, in certain of our operations, building inventory and spots before the season to ensure that we can support the, hopefully, some demand growth in the summer season and rest of the year.

We have realized the sale of ex Lüleburgaz brewery land, which flows into our cash flow. And even though we spent incrementally higher in capital expenditures in the first quarter of this year compared to last year, we've ended up with a positive free cash flow swing of almost -- just under TRY 700 million.

The majority of this financial income expense and FX gain/loss element that you see here is TRY 151 million is the dividends we have received from Coca-Cola Icecek in the first quarter, which is obviously quite unusual at this time of the year. Having said that, given our -- given the limitations and changes to the regulations in Turkey, obviously, the timing of that has changed year-on-year.

On the next page, again, certain reminders. Obviously, we don't carry any FX-related debt in Turkey or elsewhere in our portfolio, except for the Eurobonds, which matures in -- at the end of October 2022. And as Can was pointing out, you must have seen our application as part of our review of refinancing that in rest of the year. Just for clarification because I'm sure it must be noted, we will be staying within our application limit of $1 billion.

However, what we -- look, to refinance our existing Eurobond is only for $500 million. Obviously, as we said, in consecutive calls earlier, we would very much like to make sure that we are prepared to capitalize on the most opportunistic time in the markets for that exercise. If you look at our indebtedness, again, it's within our stated policy limits for Anadolu Efes. It's down to 1x net debt-to-EBITDA from 1.5 a year ago. And on Beer Group side, it's flat at 2x. That's pretty comfortable within our, as I said, policy limits, which we disclosed should be between 1 to 2x.

In terms of the risk management, I already talked about commodity hedges, FX management and with the net investment hedge, our bottom line is pretty much protected to a great extent against currency -- potential currency volatility in rest of the year. So with that, I'll turn it back to Can to continue with the call. Thank you.

[Can Çaka, executive]

Thank you, Orhun. So for the rest of the year, so far, I mean, it's -- obviously, 2021 is not different than 2020 in terms of challenges and ambiguities. I think, the most concerning one is uncertainty around what's going to be next. How long these limitations, especially in Turkey will continue. So we have little clarity about what exactly lies ahead.

I would say in our region, when we look into different countries, Turkey and then Ukraine, the number of cases are very high. Russia is more under control. We have been, let's say, the second biggest behind number of cases that are going down. Some sort of relaxation continues in the country. And Kazakhstan [ single-dose ] vaccination is going reasonably well, similar to Russia. Although -- and Georgia also, we see kind of normalization in terms of -- both in terms of number of cases and the restrictions.

So again, there -- are unclear on certainties around how long this would continue with the variants and so on and so forth. So despite the fact that we were quite happy here to note about the strong start we have for the year. This is -- on the one side, this is the smallest quarter of the year. And on the other hand, all these uncertainties. That is the reason we just keep our outlook similar.

So we reiterate our 2021 guidance. We don't make any change as of today. I hope to report like much stronger results in the second and third quarter. And then we would obviously be discussing the guidance. But as of today, we reiterate and keep our guidance as of the beginning of the year.

So thank you for your questions. We will be happy to have big questions. Actually, there is one about the -- actually Orhun already responded from Anjali Doshi about whether we will utilize $1 billion or just consider the refinancing of $500 million existing Eurobond of -- yes, we applied for a higher feeling, let's say, that's for the approval purposes. Our intention is to refinance the existing $500 million as of today.

So if you have any further questions, please now to the Q&A site.

[Asli Demirel, executive]

Are there any questions? It seems none from the line. Can, [ you may go ahead ].

[Can Çaka, executive]

It seems we were quite clear enough. Thank you for your attention. We look forward to talk to you in the next call. So -- and thank you again.

[N. Köstem, executive]

Thank you very much. Stay healthy.

[Asli Demirel, executive]

Thank you.