Kerry Group PLC

ISEQ:KRZ

Earnings Call Analysis

Kerry's Strategic Growth Amidst Market Challenges

In 2023, Kerry Group navigated challenging market conditions to deliver robust overall performance, emphasizing its strategic business development. The Taste & Nutrition division outperformed the market, achieving 1.1% volume growth with a 50-basis-point EBITDA margin increase to 17%, despite lower growth than the previous year's 8%. Free cash flow exceeded EUR 700 million, sustaining a flat return on expectations year-on-year, without considering currency impacts. Strategic moves included acquiring Proexcar and Greatang, enhancing Kerry's market positions in LATAM and China, and expanding biotechnology capabilities. Concurrently, the Dairy Ireland sector faced a downturn with significant market price reductions that have since plateaued. As part of capital returns, Kerry increased its dividend by double digits to approximately EUR 200 million for the year and initiated a EUR 300 million share buyback program.

Strategic Developments and Portfolio Refinement

During the conference, the company's representatives outlined strategic progress, including a successful growth of EUR 7 billion in revenue for one of its divisions, driven by a 1.1% growth in volume and strong performances in certain markets, despite a general decline in volume across other parts of the business. Notably, the Dairy Ireland division experienced a considerable decline due to reduced dairy sales prices and market supply constraints. The mentioned Accelerate program contributed positively to their EBITDA margin expansion, and the disposal of the Sweet Ingredients portfolio influenced their portfolio positively. These strategic movements are part of an ongoing effort to refine and develop the business in areas that offer the best value creation opportunities, such as the acquisitions in the LATAM meat market and the expansion in biotechnology capabilities.

Financial Resilience and Capital Allocation

Financial resilience was put on display with an impressive over EUR 700 million in free cash flow and strong cash conversion rates, exceeding expectations. The company's capital allocation strategy is evident in their commitment to double-digit dividend growth and the initiation of a EUR 300 million share buyback program. A focus on reducing inventory levels and working capital investments in receivables, benefiting from a deflationary environment and process improvements, is expected to result in another strong year of cash conversion in 2024. With a net debt of EUR 1.6 billion and robust credit metrics, the company is positioned to support continued business development.

Margins and Returns on Capital

The company achieved a 60 basis point expansion in overall group EBITDA margins, bolstered by the Accelerate program and product mix improvements. Despite a marginal decrease in return on capital employed due to currency effects, they have established a new threshold for acquisitions to foster increased returns moving forward. In 2024, margin expansions are anticipated to continue, backed by operating leverage and the Accelerate program's success, with ambitions to push EBITDA margins over 19%.

Future Outlook and Guidance

Looking forward, the company anticipates mid to high single-digit deflation in the first half of 2024, with a lessening impact in the latter half. The tax rate is expected to approach 15%. They remain confident in their strategic direction, with recent portfolio changes and geographical expansions positioning them for ongoing market outperformance and margin growth. Despite muted consumer market volumes, the guidance for the year stands at 5% to 8% constant currency adjusted earnings per share growth. This tempered optimism is backed by a robust innovation pipeline as the company steers into 2024.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I would like to welcome everyone to the full year results webcast and conference call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the call over to Mr. William Lynch, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

[William Lynch, executive]

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Kerry's full year 2023 Results Call. I'm joined on the call by our CEO, Edmond Scanlon; and our CFO, Marguerite Larkin. Edmond and Marguerite will take you through today's presentation. And following this, we will open the lines up for your questions. Before we begin, please note the usual disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements. I will now hand over to Edmond.

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. So beginning with Slide 4 and the overview for 2023, where we delivered a solid overall performance and continued to strategically develop our business. In Taste & Nutrition, we delivered volume growth ahead of our markets, driven by growth in the foodservice channel, where we believe we are uniquely positioned. Dairy Ireland performance reflected the significant reduction in market prices in the year, which have now stabilized. On EBITDA, we delivered 60 basis points of margin expansion due to the benefits from our Accelerate program and portfolio developments.

On cash, we had a strong performance with over EUR 700 million free cash flow in the year and returns were in line with our expectations, are flat year-on-year, excluding currency. So a good overall scorecard in light of the varying market dynamics across the year. From a strategic perspective, we continue to make good progress and build on our significant recent portfolio developments. The acquisition of Proexcar strengthens our position in the LATAM meat market and provides a platform for business development in the ANDEAN market. Greatang strongly complements our leading authentic local taste position in China and expands our offering in the local foodservice channel. And the recently announced lactase enzyme business acquisition further builds on our biotechnology capabilities, following the acquisitions of C-LEcta and Enmex and extends our enzyme manufacturing footprint to 3 continents.

We also divested our Sweet Ingredients portfolio during the year as we continue to refine and develop our business in the areas where we believe we can create the most value. Next on organic investments. We continued to enhance and develop Kerry's global presence, including the expansion of our footprint in East Africa and the opening of our new authentic taste facility in Karawang in Indonesia to further support in end-use markets across Southeast Asia.

On capital returns, we increased our dividend again at a double-digit rate, which will mean an overall payout for the 2023 dividend of approximately EUR 200 million. And we commenced an initial EUR 300 million share buyback program during the last quarter of 2023, given market conditions and our strong cash generation. So we're pleased with our strategic and operational progress in 2023, thanks to the continued efforts of our people right across the organization. We will continue to develop our business for long-term success and remain agile and flexible as regards to capital deployment with a very clear priority of delivering the best return for our shareholders.

So moving next to our Taste & Nutrition overview on Slide 5, where growth was driven by our strong performance in foodservice. Revenue for the division was EUR 7 billion in 2023, which included volume growth of 1.1%. While this was below the levels we're used in our Taste & Nutrition business, it's important to recognize, firstly, our strong comparatives with almost 8% volume growth last year. And secondly, our volume growth represented a good market outperformance, given the challenging market conditions, which continued through the last quarter.

Overall pricing for the year was up 1.1% as inflation in H1 turned to deflation in H2. EBITDA margin of 17% was up 50 basis points in the year, with a strong H2 performance. From an end-use market perspective, volume growth was led by performance in Dairy applications, in Snacks through savoury taste and in Meat with taste and texture systems. Looking at our channels. We achieved excellent growth of 9.3% in foodservice, while volumes in the retail channel were back 2.2% due to customary inventory management and softer market conditions in places. And our emerging markets delivered 4.1% volume growth led by a strong performance in the Middle East in particular.

Turning to Slide 6 and Taste & Nutrition performance by region. The Americas delivered revenue of EUR 3.8 billion with overall volumes back 1.8% in the full year and 1.9% in Q4. This was primarily due to customer inventory management, which was a little more than expected at the year-end, along with the effect of shrinkflation and softer demand across a number of end markets. While these dynamics affected overall performance in North America in the retail channel, in particular, we had good volume growth in Snacks with taste-led innovations across global leaders, emerging brands and private label brands.

And Dairy also performed well through taste systems innovations. In LATAM, we had overall growth in the year led by Mexico, while Brazil experienced softer market conditions in the second half of the year. Moving to Europe, where we had revenue of EUR 1.5 billion and overall volume growth of 2.9%. This was driven by an excellent performance in foodservice and across the U.K. and Ireland in particular. As expected, performance in the retail channel softened through the year, reflecting consumer dynamics given the recent inflationary environment.

In APMEA, we had revenue of EUR 1.6 billion with overall volume growth of 6.2%, led by a strong performance in our foodservice channel and in the Middle East across the year. China delivered good growth considering local market dynamics, while performance in Southeast Asia was impacted by challenging market conditions through the second half of the year.

Turning to Slide 7 and our end-use market breakdown. As you can see from the chart, we had overall volume growth of 3% across our food end use markets, driven by Meat through taste, texture and preservation systems; Snacks with savoury taste and Tastesense salt-reduction technologies and Dairy with authentic taste innovations. In the beverage EUM, we had lower volumes due to customer inventory management and shrinkflation, partially offset by good performance with our botanical extracts and Tastesense sugar-reduction technologies. And our global Pharma end use market had a good performance led by cell nutrition.

Moving to Slide 8 in Dairy Ireland. Our performance in the year was impacted by the significant reduction in dairy market sales prices and constrained market supply dynamics, resulting in lower revenue for the year of EUR 1.3 billion and EBITDA of EUR 53 million. Overall volumes for the year were back 6.5%, with pricing back 9.3%. Dairy Ingredients performance reflected the softer supply dynamics and lower dairy market prices, which have since stabilized. While Dairy Consumer Products performed well given the market context, led by growth in Kerry's branded cheese ranges.

And with that, I now hand you over to Marguerite for the performance overview.

[Marguerite Larkin, executive]

Thank you, Edmond, and good morning, everyone. Turning now to Slide 10 and the group financial overview. Revenue for the year was EUR 8 billion, reflecting a volume reduction of 0.9%. Overall, group EBITDA margin increased by 60 basis points to 14.5%, driven by our Accelerate Operational Excellence program and portfolio development. Group EBITDA of just under EUR 1.2 billion. Organic EBITDA growth was more than offset by the effect of disposals and foreign currency translation. Adjusted earnings per share of EUR 4.301 represented an increase of 1.2% in constant currency and included a net dilution from M&A of 2%. We delivered return on capital employed of 10%, and I am pleased to say we achieved strong free cash flow of EUR 701 million, representing 92% cash conversion with over EUR 1 billion net cash from operating activity.

Turning next to our group revenue bridge on Slide 11. Overall, Group reported revenue was 8.6% lower in the year, mainly driven by the portfolio impact and foreign currency. Group volumes slightly back by 0.9% and lower pricing of 0.7%. Foreign currency translation was 2.9% adverse driven by movements in U.S. dollar and the weakness of some emerging market currencies versus the euro. The positive contribution from acquisitions of 1.1% was more than offset by the impact from divestments of 5.1%, primarily relating to the disposal of the Sweet Ingredients portfolio and divestment of our businesses in Russia and Belarus in the prior year.

Moving to Slide 12 and our revenue analysis by division. On the left-hand side, you can see the breakdown of our revenue and volume performance, with Taste & Nutrition volume growth of 1.1% being more than offset by the volume reduction in Dairy Ireland. On the right-hand side, you can see the regional analysis of Taste & Nutrition volume growth. This breakdown highlights the very dynamics across our markets with good performances in Europe and APMEA in 2023, partially offset by the Americas. As Edmond mentioned, this overall growth was achieved against an exceptionally strong comparative performance in the prior year, particularly in the Americas.

Turning now to our group margin bridge on Slide 13. We delivered good overall group EBITDA margin expansion with an increase of 60 basis points in the year. Looking at the key moving parts. Firstly, I am pleased to say that our Accelerate Operational Excellence program delivered 40 basis points of margin expansion, which was ahead of our expectations. The portfolio actions we have taken contributed in that 30 basis points expansion, primarily resulting from the disposal of our Sweet Ingredients portfolio. And pricing was net 10 basis points dilutive. For 2024, we are planning for another year of good margin expansion underpinned by operating leverage and mix, our Accelerate Operational Excellence program as well as positive effects from pricing and portfolio development.

Next, to free cash flow on Slide 14. I'm pleased to say we generated free cash flow of EUR 701 million in the year, with cash conversion of 92% on an average basis and above 100% on a point-to-point basis. The main drivers of free cash flow were as follows: firstly, overall EBITDA, as I just mentioned, we delivered a very significant improvement in average working capital driven by a reduction in inventory levels and improved receivables. And at the year-end, our working capital investment levels improved year-on-year by EUR 185 million. Income taxes paid increased to EUR 120 million, as previously indicated. And our net capital investments aligned to our strategic growth areas was EUR 300 million, representing just under 4% of Group revenue.

Turning now to Slide 15. I want to take a few moments to recap on the development of our cash and returns over recent years. Firstly, on cash, we have made very good progress over the last couple of years in increasing our overall level of free cash flow generation and our cash conversion. This has been driven by improvements in our working capital enabled by our Accelerate Operational Excellence program and the establishment of our GBS centers.

Firstly, we have reduced inventory holding levels as a result of the actions we have taken in streamlining supply chain activities and optimizing our warehousing and distribution network. Investment in inventories has also benefited from the recent deflationary environment. Secondly, we have reduced working capital investment in receivables through centralization and process improvements enabled through our GBS locations. We are looking at 2024 as being another good year of cash conversion in excess of the 80%.

Moving now to our return on average capital employed and firstly, looking at the development of return on capital employed. The reduction on a reported basis from 10.3% to 10% in 2023 was driven by currency and on a constant currency basis would be flat year-on-year. Looking at our returns development over a broader time frame. Overall returns in recent years have reduced from over 12% in 2019, reflective of the market disruption as well as the significant work we have completed in rotating approximately 35% of our portfolio across this time frame.

It is also worth noting, our returns development across the past number of years has been very much in line with the sector through this period of higher industry multiples. Until recently, the low cost of capital environment was more accommodative of lower initial acquisition returns. And our objective has been to increase their intrinsic return over the midterm, once effectively integrates into our synergistic platform. Given the change in the cost of capital over the past 12 months, we have increased our initial threshold for acquisitions, which means you should expect to see our returns increase over the coming years, moving back towards the 12% level.

Our capital allocation framework on Slide 16 is well balanced between reinvestment in our business and capital returns. You can see here the elements of our capital allocation framework. In terms of reinvestment, we will continue to invest in the organic development of the business, and we will also look to continue to execute on M&A investment opportunities aligned to our strategy. Similar to the recently announced lactase enzyme business and emerging market acquisitions that Edmond referenced earlier.

In terms of returning capital to shareholders, firstly, we will continue to grow our dividends in double-digit terms consistent with our long track record. Secondly, and consistent with what I outlined back in October, given our strong cash generation in the year and the strength of our balance sheet, coupled with the current market context, including the change in the cost of debt and current sector share prices, we believe returning capital via share buybacks at this time is an attractive option to be deployed as part of our capital allocation framework.

We are currently executing the EUR 300 million share buyback program initiated in the fourth quarter of 2023, which is due to complete by the end of April. And post its completion, it is our intention at our Q1 results to announce details of a further share buyback program.

So now turning to our debt profile and credit metrics on Slide 17. Net debt at the end of December was EUR 1.6 billion. As you can see, the profile of our debt is good with a well-spread weighted average maturity of 4.8 years. Our credit metrics are very strong with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.5x. And we have a very strong balance sheet, which will continue to support the further development of our business.

Finally, to cover off a number of other financial matters on Slide 18. Finance costs of EUR 50 million in the year reflected strong cash generation and interest income. Non-trading items were an overall net credit of EUR 17 million, primarily relating to a net profit on disposals, partially offset by costs relating to our Accelerate Operational Excellence program. On the input costs, the inflation we had in the first half turned to deflation in the second half. We are currently looking at overall mid- to high single-digit deflation in the first half of 2024, which we expect to moderate in the second half of the year.

On taxation, the current outlook is for our tax rate to move towards 15% in 2024, which has been factored into our overall guidance. And on currency, the translation headwind on adjusted earnings per share in 2023 was 3.6%. And based on prevailing exchange rates, we are forecasting a relatively neutral impact on the EPS in 2024.

To summarize on overall financial performance, we continued to make good progress across a number of areas in 2023, especially given the market backdrop. We delivered volume growth in Taste & Nutrition, good margin expansion and a strong free cash flow performance in the year.

So with that, I'll pass you back to Edmond.

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

Thanks, Marguerite. So before I move to the outlook for 2024, I just want to share with you why we feel strongly positioned for growth and margin expansion despite the current market dynamics.

Moving to Slide 20 and firstly, on what we see as sort of 3 key growth differentiators. On sustainable nutrition, this is an area that we at Kerry are passionate about as it goes to the very heart of what we do. Our aim is to support our customers in addressing the multitude of complex challenges and consumer demands, whether that be improving the nutritional profile or the sustainability credentials of their products. We see this as a mega trend with phenomenal potential and runway as an innovation partner in helping our customers move along that sustainable nutrition spectrum.

Then on foodservice, I think Kerry's unique positioning is pretty well understood at this point. With the defensive nature of our business in the foodservice channel is a little less so. I've spoken before about how the foodservice channel has consistently outperformed retail across the last decade. And our foodservice business has consistently outperformed the channel across that time frame. What's important to note is that we don't necessarily need the channel to be in growth for Kerry to grow as we continue to develop our business with customers and gain deeper penetration with Kerry's offerings, be that back-of-house efficiency solutions, seasonal menu items or supporting customers with nutritional improvements. And then on emerging markets, we've spoken many times in the past about our unique business model and broad technology portfolio are key enablers of our customers in emerging markets. We have a leading local presence across our emerging markets footprint and a strong track record of growth, which will continue to be a key underpin of our success in the coming years.

Moving to EBITDA margins, again, where we see significant runway. We had a Taste & Nutrition EBITDA margin of 17% in 2023, and we're looking at strong margin expansion in 2024 and into the coming years. We're looking at operating leverage, mix and portfolio to contribute circa 100 basis points with another 100 basis points from our Accelerate program and other initiatives to get us to over 19%. Thereafter, we are looking at a reversal of some of the mathematical effect of the significant recent inflation to get EBITDA margins to 20%.

So finally, before we move to Q&A, I'd like to close out with our full year outlook. Firstly, our recent strategic portfolio developments and geographical expansion strongly position Kerry for continued market outperformance and good margin progression in the coming years. We will continue to develop our business and portfolio aligned to our strategic priorities. And as we begin 2024, our innovation pipeline remains strong. However, overall consumer market volumes continue to be muted. This is reflected in our guidance for the year of 5% to 8% constant currency adjusted earnings per share growth.

So with that, I'd hand you back to the operator, and we look forward to taking your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Charles Eden of UBS.

[Charles Eden, analyst]

I'll limit it to 2 and both actually on volumes. So firstly, on the Q4 T&N volume performance, obviously, slightly softer than you had previously expected and obviously where consensus was. If there was a phasing impact here with orders shifting back into Q1 2024, are you able to quantify the extent of this impact, please?

And then staying on volumes, on the low single-digit volume growth outlook for 2024, what are you assuming for the market growth here, I'd assume broadly flat given your consistent outperformance to the market. And therefore, I guess, is there upside potential should the underlying market improve that you would end up sort of navigating closer to your medium-term sort of 4% to 6% than this current guidance?

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

Charles, I'll take those questions. Firstly, in Q4 volumes, maybe specifically zoning into North America, we did see some phasing between December and January. So volumes in December were a little bit softer than we expected in North America. And this is linked to a number of customers trying to optimize their year-end inventory levels. So we have seen a reversal of this in January. So therefore, we are seeing the Americas back in growth actually at the beginning here of 2024.

Then in terms of the outlook on volumes for Taste & Nutrition, we are assuming low single-digit volumes. We are looking at an improvement year-on-year, and we do continue to outperform the markets. In terms of market volumes, we estimated 2023 to be back about 1% to 2%, probably closer to the 2% zone. And in 2024, we are expecting an improvement and to be, let's say, flat to -- flat to positive from an overall market perspective. I would say, look, we haven't baked in an uptick here in the second half of the year. We -- what we have done at this moment in time is giving you a good perspective on what we're seeing currently. Obviously, if volumes improve going out through the course of the year, we continue to be positive and confident that we will outperform the market by at least 2% from a volume perspective.

[Charles Eden, analyst]

Understood. And can I just quickly follow up on the phasing impact. I'm not expecting an exact number, but are we talking 1 percentage point, 2 percentage points in the Americas, will you able to give us a rough guide of that phasing impact?

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

I can't give you a number, Charles, but fair to say that, look, we did come in a little bit shy of our expectations, and we have seen a reversal, I would say, in January, and we are back in growth in North America and in the Americas, which I think is the most demanding.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Higgins of Goodbody.

[Patrick Higgins, analyst]

A couple of questions on my side. Maybe just sticking with the volume piece for T&N for 2024. Could you just give us an idea of your assumptions by channel and maybe by region, particularly interested in -- on foodservice side, I guess. And then secondly, just in terms of I guess, your innovation pipeline and your discussions with customers around innovation. And have you seen much shift in dynamics around those discussions? Is it still kind of focused around affordability? Or is there a ramp up in terms of focus on a broader kind of factors across the pipeline, I guess?

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

Thanks, Patrick. And I'll take those questions. I would say, firstly, on the innovation side, let's say, 2023 was really -- I would categorize it as a year, from an innovation perspective as a renovation year primarily. And we are seeing renovation continuing. But there also has been a pickup on innovation for 2024 launches, and we're seeing that across both CPG and private label as well as obviously, in foodservice as well. And this increased level of innovation from our customers is with the goal of driving category consumption in 2024.

And I would say there's strong alignment there between manufacturers and retailers to drive volumes in 2024. So we have seen, let's say, an evolution, let's say, kind of more innovation, building on top of the renovation we've seen in 2023. Then from a volume outlook perspective, firstly, by region. Like I said, look, in the Americas, we expect to see a step up on year-on-year and get back into growth in 2024, and we've already seen that in January. In Europe, look consistent to what we've been saying throughout the second half of 2023, we are seeing that the significant inflation has tempered demand in the second half of 2023, and that's expected to continue into 2024 in Europe.

And we're currently looking at flattish volumes in Europe, flattish to positive. And in the APMEA region, we expect good mid-single-digit growth similar to the second half of -- or similar to 2023. Then from a channel perspective, look, we're looking at another strong year in foodservice. It's been a really strong performance, a continued strong performance in 2023 at the high single-digit level. 2024 will be another good year on -- in the foodservice channel. We're expecting, let's say, that channel performance to be in that mid-single digits on or strong mid-single digits on. And on retail, we expect to continue to see progress with overall volumes still remaining relatively muted. But at the same time, looking at getting back to volume growth for the year.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Nicola Tang of BNP Paribas.

[Ming Tang, analyst]

The first is another on volumes. Sorry to keep the same subject. But I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about APMEA. I think you mentioned there's some weakness in Southeast Asia. I think [indiscernible] talked about contribution of the kitchen -- switching away from package to fresh. Do you think that's what's driving the weakness in your APMEA business as well? Or do you think there's something else going on?

And the second question was on the buyback. You talked about the strength in cash generation and strict criteria around M&A. Obviously, I'm not expecting you to kind of size the next phase of your buyback, but I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about how you came up with the EUR 300 million current program that you're running executed over quite a short time frame? Should we expect something similar in terms of small but frequent chunks? How are you thinking about buybacks going forward?

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

Thanks, Nicola. Thanks for the question. There was just a little bit of interference, but we'll do the best we can on -- I think we got the grasp of the question. I would say, in the APMEA region, look, we expect good mid-single-digit growth continuing for 2024. We do expect continued good growth in the Middle East. China to continue to show some progress and maybe Southeast Asia being a little bit -- maybe being a little bit challenging. I would say that we see foodservice -- our foodservice performance, continuing to underpin our confidence around the growth levels that we're expecting in the APMEA region.

We're seeing an exceptional level, I would say, of innovation in the foodservice channel across the region, and we see this actually as a way to broaden in [indiscernible] many instances, some of the newer, let's say, launches that are coming through the foodservice channel are actually moving from LTO seasonal offerings back into the main menu. So we see ourselves continuing to grow market share in foodservice, and there continues to be a strong innovation pipeline in the foodservice channel, underpinning our confidence in growth across the region.

I would say retail is a little bit more muted for sure. We are seeing reference sizes being a little bit lower, and we're seeing slightly less innovation on the retail side. But all in all, I feel that the mix of our business, the diversity of our business, our channel diversity, our channel breadth, our customer breadth and depth, the scale of our footprint, both from a development and application perspective and manufacturing footprint perspective, we still would feel quite positive overall in the APMEA region.

In terms of your specific questions in terms of, let's say, a shift to different types of consumption habits. We haven't really seen that as such. We have seen a particular, I would say, a continued, I would say, a strong performance in foodservice, driven primarily by local foodservice chains where we're very well positioned.

[Marguerite Larkin, executive]

And Nicola, on the share buyback program, as I referenced, given the strong cash generation, it is our intention to announce details of the further share -- back program post the completion of the existing program, which is due to complete by the end of April. In terms of sizing the current program, from our perspective, our aim here is very much to have an efficient and strong balance sheet while also continuing to have a strong investment-grade rating and importantly, retaining capacity to invest in the strategic development of the business.

So that's very much the driver in terms of how we look at the sizing. And again, as I said, our focus here is around remaining agile and flexible, very much in terms of assessing the different capital allocation options to create the most value, both in the medium term and the long term for shareholders. And on the specifics of the further share buyback, as I mentioned, we will update further at the Q1 results.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Jones of BOA.

[Alexander Jones, analyst]

I've got 2 around capital allocation, if that's all right. The first on this sort of new return threshold on M&A, can you give any more sort of numbers on quantifying that? And maybe sort of a case study, clearly, you've announced the acquisition of the [ Novonesis ] lactase business since then. Could you talk about if you can calculate the initial return, but how you intend to drive that into, I guess, what's double-digit territory, which would probably be around your new threshold?

And then second, just on CapEx. I think the CMD, a couple of years ago, you talked about 4% to 5% of sales as being the level you would expect to be at, but you've been materially below that in the past 2 years. So is that driven by efficiencies or a different belief in sort of medium-term growth or anything else that's been pushing CapEx down?

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

I might kick off here, Alex, and Marguerite might want to add. Maybe just on the CapEx point first, I would say that EUR 300 million zone is the zone that one should be thinking about in terms of CapEx for Kerry. So in that 4% to 5% zone going forward, 2022 was lower than that. We flagged that at the time in the context of just purely timing. We had a number of new facilities being commercialized through the course of 2022 that had been constructed over the COVID period in 2020 and 2021. And we just reallocated resources to commercialize those facilities as opposed to starting new projects.

In 2023, at EUR 300 million, let's say, EUR 300 million, EUR 300 million plus in terms of CapEx, and that 4% to 5% zone. That is the zone that one should be thinking about for CapEx for us going forward. And that really is about putting capacity in the ground for future growth in the business. In terms of M&A, Marguerite will add to this. But maybe specifically on the lactase enzyme business. We've already put out an announcement around the business. You will see from, let's say, the -- what we've already put out that let's say, this acquisition was in, let's say, a zone that one could argue was let's say, it was a very good deal for Kerry.

Lactose-free and lactose-free dairy is a category that's growing and outperforming, especially in the North America region where this business is actually least penetrated. So we see significant opportunity both from a growth perspective and a margin accretion perspective to drive this business forward. And we're excited about the closing of this business, which we expect at the end of April this year.

[Marguerite Larkin, executive]

And just in relation to my comments on raising the hurdle -- rate. It's very much, as I outlined, reflective of the interest rate environment. We have moved the return on M&A out of the box from a mid-single-digit zone into the high single-digit zone in terms of expectations and looking for those acquisitions to move towards the double-digit 12% return in the 5-year time frame. And obviously, we'll evaluate each acquisition on a case-by-case basis, but as a general rule, the uptick in the target reflects the changed environment.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Cathal Kenny of Davy.

[Cathal Kenny, analyst]

Two quick questions from my side. Firstly, on working capital from a cash perspective. What's your expectations for '24, given the progress achieved in '23? And second question relates to T&N, any expectations of a benefit from your private label activities in '24?

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

Thanks, Cathal. I'll kick off here. I would say a private label, when we look at that opportunity, for sure, we have seen our customer base actually pick up or pick up on their strategies around driving their own private label brands. So we've seen an evolution of the strategy amongst retailers to actually invest behind their brands, which is a little bit of a different strategy to what we've seen previously where it was about national brand equivalence. So this is something that we've seen evolve during the course of 2023.

We have seen, I would say, a significant uptick in the level of engagement with customers around our private label brands. We have a number of launches in the pipeline through the course of 2024. So what we have in the pipeline right now, we have baked into the overall guidance. We're just going to have to see how it plays out, but it is something that is evolving in our business, and it is an area where we have reallocated some resources towards the second half of 2023 and into 2024.

[Marguerite Larkin, executive]

And on working capital, Cathal, on your question on working capital investments, we don't expect significant increase year-on-year to support the growth of the business. As you referenced, yes, we had a very good performance in 2023. We've made very good progress in driving efficiencies in our working capital with an improvement overall of 7 days. So our focus really going forward is continue to optimally manage the working capital to deliver growth, maintain the efficiencies that we've driven through, in the current year. So I do see our working capital at the end of the year is pretty optimized. There may be some opportunity for improvement in our average working capital, but again, not calling out any significant change year-on-year. I would say overall, we expect another year of good cash conversion in 2024 in excess of 80% on an average working capital basis.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Sloane of Barclays.

[Alexander Sloane, analyst]

Just a quick one for me. Just on Dairy Ireland, I mean, you talked, I think, about the pressures having now eased. What sort of rebound, if any, are you expecting in Dairy Ireland EBITDA within your guidance? And any update on the thinking in regards to the kind of strategic place for this division within the portfolio?

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

Thanks, Alex. Look, as we said before, we will continue to selectively invest in that in the Dairy Ireland business. And like we've said in the past, we will always remain open-minded in terms of how best to create shareholder value. In terms of the, let's say, how the year finished and the outlook, one should be thinking about Dairy Ireland in the context really of EBITDA, EBITDA and EBITDA evolution. So with EUR 53 million being the EBITDA for 2023, we're expecting 2024 to be in that EUR 60 million or EUR 60 million plus on EBITDA for 2024.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Charles Bentley of Jefferies.

[Charles Bentley, analyst]

I've just got one. Can I just confirm, going back to the question around volumes earlier and just the kind of the way that you're baking out the guide in terms of end market outgrowth. Can you just confirm what you kind of define as the end market on that basis? Because you're saying volumes at the end market, you're assuming are something like flattish. But obviously, if it's comparing to peers, you all saw a lot of destockings. You should see some base level of growth even if the kind of the eventual end market is flat. So I just want to be clear, is the end market basically customers or is the end market peers?

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

Thanks Charles. The end markets we're talking about is our own markets, and it's the markets we play in across foodservice -- across foodservice and retail. And we've estimated those markets, based on our latest estimates, to be flat or flat to positive for 2024. And our expectation is that we will outperform those markets by at least 2%.

[Charles Bentley, analyst]

And then -- sorry, just for a follow-up. I guess in terms of the impact from destocking in '23, is that kind of -- would you estimate that a couple of -- 2%?

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

We're just going to have to see how it plays out through the course of the year, Charles.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Fulvio Cazzol of Berenberg.

[Fulvio Cazzol, analyst]

I've got a couple. The first one is on the 20% T&N margin ambition in 2026. I was just wondering if you're still happy with this ambition, given that volumes last year and volumes -- it sounds like volumes this year are going to be a little bit below what you would have anticipated, maybe when you set that target in 2022? And then my second question is, given the uncertainty on market volume growth, I mean, are you still confident that you can deliver 4% to 6% volume growth in T&N over the medium term? Or is there an opportunity here for you to -- would you consider revising this target something more like market growth plus 2%? Is that something that you're thinking about?

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

Thanks, Fulvio. I might take those questions in terms of the medium-term targets. And I think the short answer here is that we believe our medium-term algorithm is very much intact. So on volumes for Taste & Nutrition, we expect to continue to outperform our markets and get back into mid-single-digit volume growth once the underlying market conditions pick up. And when we average the volumes over the lifetime of the plan, our expectation will be that we will be in that 4% to 6% zone. On EBITDA margin, look, we were very deliberate today to outline how we plan to get to the zone of the 20% EBITDA for Test & Nutrition over the next 3 years. And key to that is the 100 basis points of operating leverage, mix and portfolio, 100 basis points from efficiency initiatives offered in the next 3 years.

And this, I think, is important also to note that it's very much in line with our recent track record. Over the last 2 years, we've delivered 80 basis points of operating leverage mix and portfolio and 60 basis points from efficiency initiatives. And on cash, you saw from Marguerite's presentation that we are generating good cash conversion. And based on the improvements we've made, our expectations for continued good cash conversion going forward. And then on returns, like we said in the presentation, we expect to evolve our returns towards the 12% zone in the coming years and to be in the 10% -- 10% to 12% window over the course of the plan.

So that -- this is something we are very deliberate about, very conscious of, very focused on. And as we look at all the moving pieces, we feel that I'm confident about the go forward based on the strategies that we are implementing and executing against. And we're very much in the zone of controlling the controllables and feel that we're doing -- pulling every lever to control the controllables.

[Operator]

Thank you. There appears to be no further questions at this time. Mr. Edmond Scanlon, Chief Executive Officer, I'll turn the call back over to you.

[Edmond Scanlon, executive]

Thanks. So thanks, everyone, for joining our call so early this morning. We appreciate your interest in Kerry and all your questions, and we look forward to meeting many of you in the coming days and weeks. Just by way of reminder, we will be presenting at CAGNY, next Thursday. You will find the details of this presentation on our website along with upcoming results dates, and we will be holding our -- hosting an Investor Day in the U.S. on October 8. So please mark your diaries. And if you have any further questions, don't hesitate to get in touch with our Investor Relations team. So all the best, and thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.