GoTo Gojek Tokopedia PT Tbk

IDX:GOTO

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q4

[Operator]

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the PT GoToGojek Tokopedia Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I'd now like to hand the conference over to Reggy Susanto, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Reggy Susanto, Head of Investor Relations]

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to GoTo Group's fourth quarter and financial year 2022 earnings conference call. Joining us today from GoTo Group senior management are Andre Soelistyo, President, Director, Group CEO and Co-Founder; and Jacky Lo, Group CFO.

Following the management's prepared remarks, we'll open up the call for questions. We would like to highlight that the information presented today has been prepared poly as indicative results based on unaudited consolidated selected financial information for the year ended December 31, 2022.

Currently, the consolidated financial statements as of and for the year ended December 31, 2022, are still in the process of audit finalization and will be completed in accordance with the statutory deadline by the end of March 2023.

Furthermore, as a reminder, today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements about the Company's future business and financial performance. These comments are based on assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements including as a result of the factors described in cautionary statements and risk factors included in the Company's earnings release and regulatory filings to the OJK and IDX, by which any forward-looking statements made during this call are qualified in their entire team.

This call also includes the discussion of certain non-Indonesian financial accounting standard measures, such as gross revenues, contribution margin and adjusted EBITDA. We believe these measures can enhance investors' understanding of our business performance when used as a complement to Indonesian Accounting Standards disclosures.

Furthermore, to assist investors in comparison of our quarterly and half year results, we have included accounts on a pro forma basis as if GoTo Group was formed on January 1, 2021. During this earnings call, we will be going through our results of operations and earnings presentation, which can be found on our website. For more information and additional disclosures on our recent business and financial performance, please refer to our earnings press release and supplemental presentation, which can be found on our IR website.

With that, I will turn the call over to Andre.

[Andre Soelistyo]

Thank you, Reggy. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. 2022 was a challenging year as society enters the post-pandemic era and the world income new macroeconomic and certainty, including rising inflation and interest rates, with also a defining year for GoTo as we launch our historic IPO. This was the time for us to go public and the learning curve has been set, and we are stronger for it. I'd like to thank everyone who helped us through our first year as a publicly-listed firm.

As the year progressed at GoTo, we quickly recognize that the macro environment will remain volatile for some time. It puts the challenge not just to us, but to all players in our industry. This is why we are taking urgent decisive actions to steer our company through the uncertain road ahead to ultimately emerge stronger.

Achieving positive operating cash flow is now the most significant objective we can achieve for our company and our shareholders while continuing to deliver the best and most relevant product experiences to our customers.

To get there, we're taking a strict approach to resource allocation as we embed a group-wide focus on doing fewer things but better, prioritizing those that need the biggest impact in our customers, especially our high-quality customers.

This is why we are divesting, scaling down or deemphasizing businesses and holdings that are non-core, so we can better focus our capital and leadership bandwidth. We're basing all costs around our new strategy and ensuring our organization is properly structured for the road ahead.

Everyone at GoTo his focus on this, and the results are beginning to speak for themselves with sequential quarter-on-quarter improvement across our key metrics. It gives us the confidence to bring forward our profitability forecast last month.

Adjusted EBITDA, a metric that for our company is very close to operating cash flow, is now set to turn positive within Q4 of 2023. And the progress we made in Q4 shows that we are on track with adjusted EBITDA improving by 52% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter to IDR3.1 trillion.

Adding to our discussion on our Q4 and full year 2022 performance, we will also talk about the first two months of 2023. We show that our progress towards profitability accelerate exponentially the longer we continue to execute our plan. With average monthly adjusted EBITDA for that two-month period further improving by approximately 40% or an equivalent of approximately IDR 450 billion compared with Q4 of 2022.

Turning to our fixed costs. Our approach to fixed cost reduction is comprehensive, involving a comprehensive review of all parts of our company. And as I mentioned, we are prioritizing a smaller number of things that are core competencies and have the most outsized impact for our users in the medium and longer term as well. We are, therefore, divesting, winding down our hyper needing businesses and portfolios that do not represent the most efficient use of capital and personnel.

In fourth quarter, we won down certain parts of Gojek Tokopedia, our B2B marketplace solution for offline retail businesses, and we continue to evaluate non-core divestment opportunities where appropriate. In addition, we are restructuring our business to better serve a more focused set of business needs while reducing the duplication of teams and technologies to ensure better execution as well.

For instance, we merged GoTo merchant businesses, which will allow us to deliver a better, more cohesive experience to our merchants while operating in a leaner and more cost-efficient way. We also streamlined supporting functions across business units in the centralized teams to reduce redundancies and provide the high-quality support for the wider business.

Together, these changes have resulted in a reduction of around employee base of 600 people as announced earlier this month. All these initiatives will be reflected in our financial statements starting in Q2 of 2023. This is on top of the reduction of 1,300 people announced in November last year, which will be reflected in our expense reduction starting in Q1 2023.

We have also conducted a thorough analysis of all non-[indiscernible] related OpEx, which we continue to optimize through multiple initiatives, including streamlining our software providers, renegotiation of key vendor contracts and implementation of sector, travel and payment policies.

In total, the cost saving measures carried out in Q4 have resulted in an average monthly fixed OpEx cost reduction of approximately 20% or about IDR200 billion during the first two months of 2023 compared to Q4 of 2022. We consider all of this to be a good start and we will continue to rebase our costs in identifying the optimization areas as well.

I'll now talk through how we are accelerating profitability through a refreshed consumer strategy along with value-added offerings to merchants and driver partners, both of which allows us to monetize more effectively while reducing variable costs. We have enough thorough analysis of our evolving consumer base through which we have identified the users who are the most valuable to our business.

By concentrating our resources on retaining and engaging users who are the most profitable and have the most favorable transaction patterns, we're able to spend more efficiently and capture better user margins at these users to acquire incentivization. The strategy net enables us to reduce incentives and product marketing in Q4 of 2022 by 34% or IDR2.8 trillion year-on-year.

We expect such savings to increase over future quarters as well. The resilience in our growth is directly attributable to the increase in the proportion of quality consumers in our user base as well. During Q4 of 2022, the number of profitable consumers in our on-demand and e-commerce marketplace platforms increased by 19% year-on-year and contributed to more than 15% of total GTV.

As we reduced incentive, these profitable consumers stay with us, transacted more even became more profitable with Q4 contribution margin for users, improving by more than 50% on a year-on-year basis.

Given the benefits that profitable consumers present to our ecosystem, we're also focused on how to acquire more of them. We will continue to address the consumer segments that require higher incentivization, but rather than incentivizing them using promo, we aim to engage them with product innovation, which I will talk about shortly as well as enhanced logistics and payment experiences.

This is already paying dividends as the average consumer spending on our platform grew by 24% year-on-year, reaching a record high of IDR9.6 million consumer per year in Q4 of 2022. We have also improved our dynamic pricing and mapping technology to motivate driver productivity, resulting in better efficiency and higher earnings for our driver partners. Merchants have also benefited from improved features such as pricing recommendation, market insights and marketing solutions.

This value-add services enable us to grow our monetization as our merchant and driver partners became more successful on our platforms. We can see this benefit clearly in our Q4 results as they directly impact our improved take rate, supporting year-on-year growth in gross revenue for on-demand services in e-commerce by 15% to IDR3.7 trillion and 24% to IDR2.4 trillion, respectively.

To round off, I'd like to state that while we do expect to see some slowing of GTV over the first half of 2023 as we zero in on quality, we remain very optimistic on our overall long-term growth opportunity within a huge addressable market in Indonesia and Southeast Asia as well. It is important to remember that we are focusing on becoming profitable now. So we are well positioned to capitalize on the potential of our regions later.

That's why we have been investing in foundational products and services that will enable us to grow our high-quality consumer base in a sustainable way and drive deeper engagement over the long term. At heart, we will always be a problem-solving technology company with an endless obsession with finding new ways to reduce friction and improve the experience of our users. This gives us a significant confidence that we will always be able to attract and retain users without the need for heavy subsidies.

We can divide our product strategy into two areas. The first area involved introducing products that help us acquire new users by expanding user segments. GoFood and GoRide Hemat are economical options for food delivery and two-wheeler transport, designed to appeal to users who may not have transacted before.

GoTransit also served its purpose by expanding our reach to people who primarily use public transport. While GoCar Luxe and GoCorp expand our reach into a consumer base that is less price sensitive. The second area is about developing products that help us to retain users and convert them to high-quality consumers where they're reducing friction and enhancing convenience.

The work we are doing to improve logistics and e-commerce, especially outside of Greater Jakarta, where penetration is still low is a good example of this. A great deal of the work in this area is also happening in our fintech business. We will continue to scale GoPay wallet that drive convenience and reduce this payment friction, both for on and off platform transactions.

As we do so, GoPay will continue to increase its share of wallet within our high-quality user base while maintaining organic growth with lower incentives. This will be supported by the online and offline payment units within a much leaner consolidated merchant business.

We're also strongly encouraged by the early traction of our consumer lending products. Our loan book grew 40% quarter-on-quarter and the average loan disbursed by our mailer products was profitable in fourth quarter of 2022.

This year, we will continue to grow consumer lending prudently supported by the strength of our proprietary core and we will also continue to strengthen our strategic partnership with [indiscernible], which has become a core part of our value proposition built on our close relationship.

In summary, as I mentioned at the start, 2022 was undoubtedly a challenging year, but it was also an important inspection point. It was a year that changed our thinking and showed that how we needed to operate. We have faced a clear part for our profitable future and have more than enough cash balance to get there. As we continue to grow and make a positive impact on the lives of millions of our consumers, our acquisition purchase every day.

Simultaneously, we are creating sustainable long-term value for our customers, partners and stakeholders.

With that, I will now hand the call over to Jacky, who will talk about our group and business segment performance. Jacky, over to you.

[Jacky Lo, Group Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you, Andre. Good day, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call. For the fourth quarter of 2022, our group GTV increased 16% year-on-year to IDR162 trillion, which is in line with our guidance range despite the macroeconomic uncertainty caused by high inflation rate and the post-COVID reopening of the economy.

Our tech rates improved year-on-year by 234 basis points for on-demand services and 32 basis points for e-commerce. At the group level, our overall take rate remained steady year-on-year and improved by 23 basis points quarter-on-quarter.

Group gross revenue grew 19% year-on-year to IDR6.3 trillion in the quarter, which is at the high end of our guidance range. For the full year of 2022, we increased our group GTV by 33% year-on-year to IDR613.4 trillion and grew gross revenue by 35% to IDR23 trillion.

As Andre discussed in 2022, we shifted our strategy to focus on high-quality, profitable users and rationalize our incentives significantly. Our incentives are now greatly reduced and far more targeted.

Total incentive and product marketing costs for the fourth quarter were reduced by IDR2.8 trillion or 34% on a year-on-year basis. This reflects a 262 basis points improvement to 3.2% of GTV. These savings directly benefits our contribution margin, which narrowed to negative 0.4% of GTV in the fourth quarter, significantly beating our guidance. This reflects improvement of 254 basis points year-on-year and 38 basis points quarter-on-quarter, equivalent to IDR3.4 trillion year-on-year and IDR602 billion quarter-on-quarter betterment.

For the full year of 2022, our contribution margin improved to negative 1% of GTV, amounting to around half of the negative 1.9% of GTV we posted in the full year 2021. With our positive momentum in the fourth quarter and early 2023, we are confident we'll achieve our accelerated group contribution margin breakeven time line in the first quarter of 2023.

For the fourth quarter of 2022, our group adjusted EBITDA improved by 52% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter to negative IDR3.1 trillion or negative 1.9% of GTV. This represents improvement of 280 basis points year-on-year and 36 basis points quarter-on-quarter.

We started to recognize the full effect of November's employee-based reduction in January 2023 and we are very encouraged by the results we have seen in the first two months of this year as Andre shared earlier.

To provide a more accurate reflection of our cash flow from operating activity, going forward, adjusted EBITDA will also adjust for the unrealized gain and loss from remeasuring our foreign currency denominated cash balances as well as our share of income and loss of associated companies.

The historical impact is insignificant and we have provided the pro forma figures in the presentation upload on our IR website. Overall, our approach to costs, combined with our growing revenues, will enable us to further reduce our 2023 annual cash burn by 60% to 65% compared with that in 2022.

With IDR29 trillion of cash on hand as of the end of 2022, plus approximately IDR4.65 trillion of credit facility of which we have only utilized IDR1.5 trillion, our cash position and balance sheet are solid and sufficient to reach positive operating cash flow without any additional external funding.

In Q4 2022, our net loss increased to approximately IDR19.5 trillion due to several items which are either non-cash or one-off in nature and did not reflect the group's operational performance. These items included goodwill impairment of IDR11 trillion associated with the business combination of Gojek and Tokopedia, impairment on investment in JD and an increase in share-based compensation expense due to an adjustment of the assumed employee turnover rate to reflect its latest historical trend and one-off restructuring costs.

Excluding these items, net loss for the fourth quarter 2022 stood at approximately IDR6.5 trillion, improving 36% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter. I will now move on to on-demand services. GTV for on-demand services for the fourth quarter grew to IDR16.1 trillion an increase of 2% year-on-year. And for the full year, GTV for on-demand services was IDR61.6 trillion, up 22% year-on-year.

Transport GTV fully recovered to 100% of pre-COVID levels in the fourth quarter and show healthy growth despite the increase in fuel price and higher tariffs. The increase in transport GTV was offset by normalization in food delivery due to the economy reopening, bringing about an increase in offline consumer spending. We expect this normalization trend to continue in food orders over the coming quarters.

As previously mentioned, we have rationalized our supply and demand incentives, pivoting our focus to high-quality consumers. This has led to a reduction in incentives and product marketing expenses in our demand services of 38% or over IDR1.6 trillion year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

Despite the considerable incentive cuts, our high-quality consumers remain resilient and increase their spending over time. Gross revenue for on-demand services once again outpaced GTV growing by 13% year-on-year to IDR3.7 trillion in the fourth quarter. And for the full year, our demand services gross revenue grew by 32% year-on-year to IDR13.6 trillion.

Our on-demand services take rate improved to 23.1% of GTV in the fourth quarter, an increase of 234 basis points year-on-year and 94 basis points quarter-on-quarter. This was mainly driven by improvement in dynamic pricing, especially in food delivery, bringing higher service fees during peak hours.

Monetization improvements and decreased costs drove contribution margin for on-demand services to turn positive for the full quarter, reaching positive 1.3% of GTV, up from negative 0.5% in the third quarter, which translates into a 182 basis points quarter-on-quarter improvement.

We expect the upward profitability trend on our demand services to continue into 2023 as we focus on high-quality profitable consumers and continue to optimize incentives. Growth may slow down in the first half of 2023, but we are confident growth will recover in the second half as we continue to scale a variety of foundational products that deliver more value and convenience to customers.

Now looking at e-commerce. GTV grew by 13% year-on-year to IDR70.8 trillion in the fourth quarter despite consumers spending more time off-line and other macro headwinds highlighting the resilience of our platform. As consumer spending behavior shifts towards more discretionary spending, our everything store approach is working well to help capture this trend.

For the full year of 2022, e-commerce GTV grew 18% year-on-year to IDR273 trillion. Gross revenue for e-commerce grew at almost twice the rate of GTV in the fourth quarter, increasing by 24% year-on-year to IDR2.4 trillion.

As we gain more commissions and advertising revenue for merchants, our e-commerce take rate improved by 23 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 3.4% of GTV in the fourth quarter, which tells us that merchants are willing to invest in our platform as we improve the value-added capabilities of our merchant apps and improve the sales performance of our advertising offering.

E-commerce contribution margin improved to negative 0.7% of GTV, which shows an increase of 39 basis points quarter-on-quarter. In early 2023, e-commerce continued to see strong momentum and recorded positive contribution margin for the first time in January and February on the back of increased monetization from C2C merchants and further rationalization in incentives.

In e-commerce, we'll continue to improve the availability of intercity selections for consumers especially those located outside of Greater Jakarta. We are making this happen by growing our fulfillment business and onboarding new local merchants to reduce delivery costs and enable consumers to use the same-day delivery offered by our 1P logistic lead.

This will promote economies of scale that reduce our 1P delivery cost. The number of deliveries made from our fulfillment centers grew by 2.4x in 2022. As we increase all the density in those fulfillment centers, the better we can batch and roll orders, which will result in further reductions in delivery costs and shipping subsidies.

Now regarding financial technology, as we continue to increase GoPay's penetration both on and off platform, we saw an increase in consumer payment volumes with GTV up 35% year-on-year to reach IDR98.6 trillion in the fourth quarter.

The quality of GoPay users has also been improving, with average bank per user in the fourth quarter increasing by 32% year-on-year. Gross revenue for fintech increased 28% year-on-year to IDR470 billion in the fourth quarter on the take rate that remained stable year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.

And as Andre mentioned, we are encouraged by the traction in this early phase of our consumer lending business with 40% quarter-on-quarter growth in the loan book. The average loan disbursed by our PayLater products were profitable as of the end of Q4 2022. And we also started piloting cash loans in October 2022. In 2023, we will grow consumer lending prudently as a key driver of impact monetization.

As we continue to push for organic growth of GoPay with lower incentive per user, we have reduced consumer payment incentives in the fourth quarter by approximately 40% year-on-year. As a result, same tax contribution margin reached negative 0.2% of GTV in the fourth quarter, an improvement of 10 basis points against the third quarter and 31 basis points against the second quarter last year.

Before I move to guidance, I want to highlight that the fulfillment and 1P e-commerce delivery business have been restructured and moved under GoTo logistics. Starting in Q1 2023, this will be reported as a separate segment in GoTo's financial statements. The change has no effect on our group consolidated numbers. We will provide more details on this on the next quarterly earnings call.

So as we conclude our presentation, we would like to reiterate our accelerated guidance for group profitability. We are expecting the group to reach positive contribution margin within the first quarter of 2023 and positive adjusted EBITDA within the fourth quarter of 2023. For the full year 2023, we expect our group adjusted EBITDA to be between negative IDR5.3 million and negative IDR4.6 trillion.

In line with our strategies to further focus on efficiency and profitability of our businesses, we'll be suspending our GTV and gross revenue guidance going forward. We believe this will help us to focus on building the right foundation to capture sustainable long-term growth which remain very positive about.

With that, we will now like to open the call to your questions. Operator, over to you.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Henry Wibowo from JPMorgan. Please ask your question, Henry.

[Henry Wibowo, JPMorgan]

Thank you, Andre, Jacky and Reggy for the presentation. I have two questions from my side. Question number one. Why is the revenue growth in GTF actually slightly lower as compared to the GTV growth? I believe the revenue growth was 28% and the GTV growth was 35%, which implied a lower decrease. It'd be great if you can elaborate on that?

And a second question related to GTF. Could you please elaborate your strategy for lending business, especially given that I think the NPL for P2P in the industry is picking up? I think there's news about any hub going into the fall and all. And at the same time, I think, GoTo financial just launched the [indiscernible], which I think is exciting, but we'll be great if you can share more about that.

[Andre Soelistyo]

Jacky, you want to go first, yes.

[Jacky Lo, Group Chief Financial Officer]

Thanks, Andre. Hopefully, you can hear my voice well. On the first one, your question about revenue and GTV growth mismatch. Some part of the -- as you know, some part of our GTV is contributed by our merchant payments, which has considerably lower take rate against the consumer payments while the consumer payments continue to be growing strongly quarter-on-quarter, but at that quarter, Q4, the merchant payments grew actually slightly higher than consumer payment, and that's why because of the lower take rate, the blended kind of revenue that we took from the growth of the GTV is actually slightly impacted.

But obviously, as you know and maybe linking to your second question, in GTF where we're actually releasing new products especially on the lending side that actually will improve take rates going forward as this type of services generally generate higher grade rates again payments business in general. So that's first question.

And the second question, I think it's a very valid point, Henry. And that's why when we spoke about how we're actually pushing for growth in our lending business, we mentioned that it's going to be done prudently.

Now having said that, we are -- the reason why we're confident if we get a few things. First is, because of the vastness of imbalance and insights that we have from our consumer base, we've been able to white list selection number of users who demonstrated the right attributes based on our machine lending model that actually will have a great or better credit quality against the remaining of the user base. That actually is used for us to invite specific sets of users to get the indication towards the products that we have into the experience [indiscernible] PTO or cash loan, and therefore become a mitigant in terms of the risk management.

Now the beauty about that strategy as well, we can also mix portfolios because our credit scoring allows us to see which one is high -- categorized at high credit scoring, medium credit scoring and low credit scoring. And as you know, we can only get better if we get data. So, I think we will only -- we can also do it from a portfolio mix of low share perspective. At times, when we wanted to manage risk more prudently, obviously, we will expose ourselves mostly to the high and medium credit scoring users.

But at certain times, we wanted to actually experiment with growth in understanding the type of data that we needed to be better, we will expose certain part of the lower exposure towards lower credit scoring as well. But again, these are all dynamic. And again, the more that we actually get the loan growth to be bigger and bigger, the better it is for us to actually perfect our credit scoring engine as well.

But as mentioned earlier, so far since we launched GoPay at GTO with Tokopedia in Q4 of 2022 based on month-on-month and repayment kind of cohorts, we see that a lot of this credit scoring has resulted in a positive result for us, and as Jacky mentioned earlier, the loan that we disbursed in Q4 remains to be profitable on a user basis. But we'll continue to actually act prudently on this. I hope that answers the question, Henry.

[Henry Wibowo, JPMorgan]

Thanks a lot Andre. It does it. Cheers.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Ferry Wong from Citi. Please ask your question.

His question is guidance for 2023 for adjusted EBITDA and other data.

[Jacky Lo, Group Chief Financial Officer]

Just one second. Our guidance for adjusted EBITDA for 2023 was between negative IDR4.6 trillion and IDR5.4 trillion this year.

[Andre Soelistyo]

What's the second question?

[Jacky Lo, Group Chief Financial Officer]

The second question from Ferry is take rate guidance per division for 2023. The third question is on goodwill amortization in 2023 and onwards and share-based compensation amortization.

Yes. So I think I can answer the goodwill amortization in 2023. Actually, goodwill is not subject to amortization, but we actually tested for impairment every year.

So in 2022, we actually performed the impairment test on December 31. And as I mentioned, the impairment was IDR11 trillion. So that's based on a valuation performed with an assistance of a third-party valuer. So, we determine what we like enterprise value of the cash generating unit containing the goodwill and then comparing to the carrying value.

So if the enterprise value is lower than the current value, then the delta will be recorded as an impairment charge. So as you recall, the goodwill balance of IDR94 trillion was initially measured in May 2021. So at that time, the equivalent share price was about 290 this year. And when we performed the impairment test at the end of the year, the share price was IDR91. So partly the impairment was mainly triggered because of this decline in the share price.

And on share-based compensation, I think if you look at the numbers we recognized for full year 2022, the amount was about IDR10 trillion this year. And we shared before that because of the Indonesian accounting standards the amortization of the expense is on a double decline method. So basically, the first year, about 50% of the expense is being recognized.

And then the following year is reduced by half and so forth in the third and fourth year based on our full year vesting schedule. And as you know, like 2022, we have the -- like that's the first year we have the IPO grant. So, a lot of the like over 50% of the expense was recognized in the year. So for the existing share-based compensation in 2023, we expect this will be reduced by half to about IDR5 trillion.

But then that will be like a new brand for the year. But I think we will be very like trying to get at an optimized level, considering number one, we have fewer headcount. And also the grand there will be performance reward highly tied to our profitability milestone. So that's going to help drive like incentive alignment. So with that, we expect overall for 2023, share-based compensation expense will be reduced by about 30% compared to the amount in 2022.

Yes. I think the second question was on the guidance for take rates. We don't provide specific guidance, but I think we are focusing on like how to increase monetization of our business. I think we shared during our prepared remarks, but I think there are multiple ways like for example starting with e-commerce we actually increased the C2C merchant take rate in January and as well as the B2C merchant take rate in March.

And on top of that, we are continuing to actually look at value-added services to our merchants and driver partners. So these are always to justify us charging a higher commission rate. And for -- on demand service, we actually increased the Singapore commission rate in February this year. And also, we are looking at improving like the revenue from advertising. So for both on demand food delivery as well as e-commerce, we are trying to improve the advertising algorithm so we can drive relevance and conversion.

And finally, for fintech, in terms of the tax rate, this year, we are looking at scaling our consumer lending products. But obviously, we will be very prudent and conservative based on the current macro, but we expect as the macro continues to improve, the consumer lending will continue to scale up like quarter-to-quarter. So that's going to help contribute the take rate for financial services as well.

[Operator]

Thank you. So, we have two questions from Adrian from Mandiri Sekuritas.

So second month 2023 run rate in the adjusted EBITDA improved by 40% compared to 4Q '22 monthly run rate. So this implies Rp0.6 trillion loss run rate per month or Rp7.4 trillion loss annualized by 12 or Rp5.6 trillion if we assume zero EBITDA by 4Q '23. Do we have possibilities for upside here given that there should be more savings realization in second quarter '23?

Second question is. How is the competitive landscape in first quarter '23 across EC and ODF compared to fourth quarter 2022? Any thoughts on why one of the largest competitors in easy match to turn profitable at EBITDA level in first quarter '22 across all markets in Asia despite having lower AOV and more price sensitive user base?

[Andre Soelistyo]

Yes, I'll help answer the questions. Yes. So, Adrian, thanks for the question. On the guidance itself, as Jacky mentioned, we provided the guidance of debt-to-EBITDA to negative IDR4.6 trillion to IDR5.4 trillion. But having said that, while the progress that we made in Q1 has been great with evidence with the first couple of months' results that we shared earlier in the prepared remarks of about more than 40% reduction of projected EBITDA, we think that we will actually do more as evidenced by two things that we've done recently.

As you know, last week, we announced another headcount reduction that will actually start reflecting the cost reduction in Q2. In addition to that, as mentioned during the guidance revision a few weeks ago, every line item matters in GoTo, and we're doing and conducting a total review on all line items and continue to actually update our cost-saving measures.

And therefore, every quarter, we will see more and more results coming out of it. In addition to that, I also need to actually balance this with certain smaller investments that we will continue to make in new things and foundational things that we do this year.

As mentioned, in the past, this includes our efforts on GoTo Logistics, which Jacky has mentioned earlier, will become a separate business unit that will be reported separately in the first quarter 2023 and also things like lending, which we believe will create long-term value, especially for our fintech business, but also for our group as well.

And the second question on competitive landscape compared to fourth quarter '22. We haven't seen any drastic movement. We continue to be market leaders in the categories that we have in the system, and to your question, why one of the largest competitors managed to turn profitable.

We don't -- I guess you're talking about the regional RH company. We don't give exact comments to our competitors, but having said that, we need to note that they have multiple different businesses, including businesses that are highly generating EBITDA in the gaming business.

And in addition to that, in certain areas and geographical area where they operate, some of those markets are a little bit more mature. So that's the take rate coming out of the commerce business, it's actually considerably higher versus in Indonesia.

Having said that, as we've seen and evidenced by the progress on the commission take rate increase year-over-year in our own e-commerce company, we've seen that the areas of monetization in Indonesia getting better and better and becoming more comparable towards the rest of the region, which we believe will continue to actually generate positive value for our company.

[Operator]

We have a couple of questions from Pat from Goldman Sachs.

First question, outlook for this year. Can you explain a little more in terms of how your adjusted EBITDA guidance look like by segment? Any color you can share with regards to growth targets for both on-demand and e-commerce segments. How do you plan to defend your market share as your accelerate towards profitability? And other words are you willing to sacrifice your market share as new?

Number two, Tokopedia GMV this year is growth coming from across all types, physical and digital or we still see digital goods growing much faster.

Number three, how do you plan to get to profitability? Will this come more from take rate increase or more from cutting costs? If it will be from take rate, how much more can we increase given you have quite a sizable exposure to 3C sellers.

[Jacky Lo, Group Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. I don't think we actually provide like specific adjusted EBITDA guidance by segment. But I think overall, if you look at the maturity of the different segments, obviously, demand service will be the first one, reaching adjusted EBITDA positive followed by e-commerce and then fintech.

But I think overall, if you look at the progress we have made in like throughout 2022 and the first two months in 2023. I think all these segments they are seeing continued improvement coming from both monetization improvement as well as cost optimization. So, I think it's a combination for all the segments, and it will be in the sequence share based on their maturity.

In terms of the growth target for on demand service and e-commerce segment, I think we share a little bit in terms of the first half, we expect there will be some more moderation partly because of the overall -- we are actually lapping last year's COVID. So, there will be some normalization, for example, like especially food delivery and e-commerce.

And then also in terms of like transport, the recovery will continue, but it has kind of saturated. So -- and on top of that, we are actually making the decision to actually forgo some of the low-quality GTV growth.

And also the current macroeconomics, there's still a lot of uncertainty. So a combination of all this, we expect there will be some moderation in terms of the growth on demand service and e-commerce.

Yes. But heading into the second half, we expect with all the product foundations that we shared with you earlier like Andre mentioned all these different new products and features. That's going to put us back on the growth trajectory.

So overall, I think for the full year, we don't provide specific guidance by segment. But I think for e-commerce, it will be kind of moderate maybe like flat year-on-year. But other than that, I think overall for the group, we still expect there will be double-digit growth, yes, in terms of like GTV.

[Andre Soelistyo]

Market share, I think on the question on defending market share on profitability, I think as I've mentioned in the first half, again, our focus is actually on cost optimization and then being able to reduce our gap in terms of getting the profitability.

Having said that, we're putting a very specific focus on building market share parameters, especially on the part of user segment that we wanted to continue to engage with. And therefore, tactically any like significant deviation against those large trails, we will definitely try to react.

But again, reacting in a much more sustainable manner, given a lot of the things and the tools that we've built recently have also generated a lot of efficiency in terms of the way that we target and being able to be much more effective in terms of our spending as well.

Notwithstanding, let's not forget that the hypothesis of the combined go-to ecosystem continues to be a strong reason why we believe that our company is special and sometimes, the way that we will be able to engage in multiple users across automating and also value-added services that sit on top of the basic services that we do will generate a better result and has been generating a better result for us as well.

And this year, as Jacky mentioned, there will be multiple foundational products that also will be generated at the group level that will connect the dots between the ecosystem and then provide a much more seamless variance across the multiple apps that we have in the ecosystem. And these are something that we continue to actually invest very strongly. And hopefully, this year, we'll actually started generating those results as well.

[Jacky Lo, Group Chief Financial Officer]

On the Toko GMV. Yes, on that question, in the fourth quarter, actually, the growth -- actually digital goods is growing faster than physical goods. Yes. But I think over the long term, I think both still have a lot of room for growth. But in the near term, we expect there will be some moderation in terms of growth as we share, especially lasting last year's COVID tailwind.

[Operator]

Right, thank you. Our next question comes from Ari from Macquarie.

First is, could you share the magnitude of the GTV growth slowdown year-to-date?

And number two question, could you share more color on the latest market share in ODS and e-commerce?

[Jacky Lo, Group Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. I think as we mentioned during the prepared remarks, we are not providing guidance for GTV anymore, but we can provide some color in terms of the expectations for like quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year.

So overall, like quarter-on-quarter, there will be like some negative growth because of the seasonality impact because Q4 typically is the strongest quarter in the year. So Q1, that will be naturally like a decline quarter-on-quarter because of these -- like the effective season in Q4.

In terms of year-on-year, I think I touched on this earlier. I think there will be like some factors impacting the first quarter growth, specifically for food delivery and e-commerce. Like [indiscernible] is just lapping the COVID tailwind impact last year. So, there will be a normalization we expect for food delivery and for e-commerce.

And also for transport, we expect the growth as a kind of saturated in Q4 last year because as we mentioned, we are actually back to 100% of the pre-COVID level. And then also on top of that, our own decisions to actually for grow like low-quality users. So that's going to actually reduce some of these GTV growth we make a decision to forego.

And finally, there's still like the macro uncertainty, which may impact the capacity of spending from consumers. So all this like Q1 and Q2, we expect that will be like a moderate growth. But like I said, like second half, we expect it will be going back to the growth we have seen before and especially like heading into 2024 with all these foundational products that we have set up. We are in a good position to acquire new users as well as enhancing the experience for our existing users.

[Andre Soelistyo]

On the question on market share? So for ODS, we continue to be the market leading player in Indonesia, both on transport and food with market share closer to 60% against competitors in the market.

For e-commerce, there's actually, fortunately, because of the different kind of type e-commerce providers. Some ourselves is categorized as transactional intent-driven e-commerce platform, and there's also the entrance of social e-commerce. We don't have the specific data that includes social commerce for market share, but having said that, in the transactional intent-driven e-commerce, we continue to be the market leader, especially those that actually is catering for the types of leases that we have in the system.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our final question comes from the line of Ranjan Sharma from JPMorgan. Please ask your question, Ranjan.

[Ranjan Sharma, JPMorgan]

Hi, good evening. Thank you for the presentation and the opportunity. Two questions from my side. Firstly, in terms of the competitive environment in on-demand services, some of the data showing like growth of new platforms like Maxim and Indriver in many parts of Indonesia. If you can talk about like how your expectations are embedding competitive threat from these new players?

Secondly, as you focus towards profitability, how do you consider Singapore and Vietnam. Are these two markets go for you because I can't imagine that you would be generating much profit from them, if I can make that presumptuous statement?

[Andre Soelistyo]

Yes. On your first question on Maxim and Indriver, yes, those are new entrants and those deal entrants are more focused on the lower tier cities in Indonesia. I think it's worth to note to begin with this, their services is completely different with us and our nearest competitor, [indiscernible] because the services that they do, doesn't -- it's not complete for -- to give you an example, a lot of the customer service and customer protection is not part of the services unlike the technology that we built to actually give better sense of protection and security to our consumers.

And therefore, a lot of the services offer at the cheaper price against the two largest players in the market. And therefore, a lot of the services only is applicable or engaging with what we believe to be a lower-quality consumers. And we don't see a significant disruption in the market positioning for ourselves in the market. But having said that, as mentioned in the earlier remarks, we're actually trialing out and also expanding our services to include how we will be able to deliver affordable services to lower segments of the users.

And we've started trialing and experimenting with what we call GoRide Hemat and also GoCar Hemat. And the result has been quite good. I mean it helps us to build a better understanding on what the basic services that we can do to actually deliver those services affordably to the lower segment of the economic users. And that's something that we will continue to push this year as we are targeting to expand our user segments, as Jacky mentioned earlier as well.

On your second question, Singapore and Vietnam. So in Singapore, we're a very strong number two player where we've been able to grow our market positioning to what we believe to be a healthy balance between demand and supply marketplace dynamics, which allows us to deliver a fast EPA or estimated time arrival for any bookings need by our customers, but having said that, it doesn't require a lot more incentivization. And in Q1, in our Singapore and Vietnam business has actually also start generating positive CM for our business as well.

We will continue to maintain our market positioning in Singapore as a strong number two player and in Vietnam as well as top player depending on which categories on food or transport by providing more and expanded services and then build on better product innovation to our consumers, which we continue to actually release and launch in this market quarter-over-quarter, including various kind of options on the car offering, additional kind of types of services that we can get to different customer center and also to provide various also options on the loyalty and rewards side for.

[Operator]

Great. Thank you all very much for your questions. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session.

And with that, we conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.