Trip.com Group Ltd
HKEX:9961
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Trip.com Group Ltd
Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one
Trip.com Group Ltd
stock under the Base Case scenario is
529.87
HKD.
Compared to the current market price of 500 HKD,
Trip.com Group Ltd
is
Undervalued by 6%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Trip.com Group Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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Trip.com Group Ltd., a leading online travel services provider, has emerged as a significant player in the global travel industry. Founded in 1999, the company offers a comprehensive range of services, including hotel and flight bookings, car rentals, and vacation packages, through its user-friendly platform. Headquartered in Shanghai, Trip.com primarily caters to Chinese travelers but has expanded its reach across international markets, recognizing the growing demand for travel services in a post-pandemic world. With a commitment to technology and innovation, Trip.com utilizes data analytics and AI to enhance customer experience and streamline operations, positioning itself as a tech-savvy...
Trip.com Group Ltd., a leading online travel services provider, has emerged as a significant player in the global travel industry. Founded in 1999, the company offers a comprehensive range of services, including hotel and flight bookings, car rentals, and vacation packages, through its user-friendly platform. Headquartered in Shanghai, Trip.com primarily caters to Chinese travelers but has expanded its reach across international markets, recognizing the growing demand for travel services in a post-pandemic world. With a commitment to technology and innovation, Trip.com utilizes data analytics and AI to enhance customer experience and streamline operations, positioning itself as a tech-savvy alternative to traditional travel agencies.
For investors, Trip.com presents a compelling opportunity given its robust market share and recovery potential following industry disruptions. The shift towards digital travel planning has bolstered its growth trajectory, as consumers increasingly seek convenient and efficient solutions for their travel needs. The company's strategic partnerships and growing brand recognition among international travelers are further cues that Trip.com is positioned for long-term success. Despite the competitive landscape, its diversified offerings and strong operational foundations make it a resilient choice for those looking to invest in the ever-evolving travel sector. With travel demand rebounding, Trip.com Group is poised to capitalize on emerging opportunities, transforming itself into a central hub for travelers worldwide while delivering value to its shareholders.
Trip.com Group Ltd. operates primarily in the travel and tourism industry and has several core business segments that contribute to its overall revenue. Here are the main segments:
-
Accommodation Reservation:
- This segment includes hotel bookings, vacation rentals, and other lodging options. Trip.com Group offers a wide range of accommodations, enabling users to find and book hotels, hostels, and short-term rentals through its various platforms.
-
Transportation Ticketing:
- This segment encompasses the sale of tickets for flights, trains, and other forms of transport. Trip.com Group provides users with the ability to compare and purchase transportation options, catering primarily to travelers needing transport.
-
Vacation Packages:
- Trip.com Group offers packaged travel solutions that may include a combination of flights, accommodation, and additional services like car rentals or activities. This segment appeals to travelers looking for convenience and cost savings through bundled offers.
-
Corporate Travel:
- The company also provides services geared toward businesses, including travel management solutions, corporate accounts for employee travel, and expense management tools. This segment targets corporate clients looking for efficient travel solutions.
-
Travel-Related Services:
- This includes additional offerings such as travel insurance, car rentals, and local experiences or activities. These services enhance the travel experience by providing customers with everything they might need for a trip in one place.
-
Technological Services and Solutions:
- Given the digital nature of its operations, Trip.com invests in technology and data analytics to improve customer experience, streamline operations, and enhance efficiency across its platforms.
Overall, Trip.com Group Ltd. aims to provide a comprehensive travel ecosystem, catering to both leisure and business travelers by integrating various travel services into a single platform.
Trip.com Group Ltd possesses several unique competitive advantages that help it stand out in the highly competitive online travel industry:
-
Strong Brand Recognition: Trip.com is a well-established brand, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. Its reputation enhances customer trust and attracts both leisure and business travelers.
-
Extensive Product Range: The company offers a wide array of services including hotel bookings, flight reservations, vacation packages, car rentals, and travel insurance. This comprehensive ecosystem allows customers to fulfill all their travel needs on a single platform, increasing customer retention.
-
Technological Investment: Trip.com Group has significantly invested in technology and artificial intelligence, leading to enhanced user experiences through personalized recommendations and efficient booking processes. Their robust mobile application also caters to the increasing demand for mobile travel solutions.
-
Global Expansion: With an aggressive expansion strategy across various international markets, Trip.com has built a strong presence outside of China, which helps diversify its revenue streams and reduce dependence on any single market.
-
Strong Partnerships and Collaborations: The company has established strategic partnerships with airlines, hotels, and local service providers worldwide. This not only improves service offerings but also enhances competitive pricing through exclusive deals.
-
Data Analytics: Trip.com effectively utilizes data analytics to gain insights into consumer behavior and preferences, allowing for targeted marketing campaigns and improved customer service.
-
Localized Services: The company tailors its offerings to meet the specific needs of different markets, including language support and region-specific deals, which enhances user experience and satisfaction.
-
Focus on Innovation: Continuous innovation in offerings, such as travel packages and personalized travel planning services, helps the company stay ahead of industry trends and better meet consumer demands.
-
Strong Supply Chain Management: By having robust relationships with various travel service providers, Trip.com can ensure reliable and quality offerings, which enhances its reputation and customer loyalty.
-
Cost-Effective Operations: Trip.com has optimized its operational processes to maintain cost efficiency, allowing it to offer competitive pricing and invest more in marketing and technology.
These competitive advantages position Trip.com Group Ltd favorably in the market, enabling it to leverage opportunities while mitigating potential risks.
Trip.com Group Ltd, like many companies in the travel and online tourism industry, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. Here are some key factors to consider:
-
Post-Pandemic Recovery: The travel industry has been significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. While demand is returning, the complete recovery is still uncertain, influenced by potential new variants and the global response to them.
-
Regulatory Changes: The travel industry is heavily regulated. Changes in regulations, particularly concerning health and safety, immigration, and consumer protection, can impact operations. Additionally, international travel policies may change based on geopolitical tensions or public health concerns.
-
Competition: The online travel agency space is highly competitive, with major players like Booking.com, Expedia, and Airbnb, as well as emerging startups. Maintaining market share and pricing power can be challenging.
-
Economic Factors: Economic downturns or fluctuations can lead to reduced consumer spending on travel. Factors such as inflation, currency exchange rates, or a recession can impact the company's revenues.
-
Technological Changes: Rapid advancements in technology and customer preferences can pose a risk. Trip.com must continuously innovate its platform to enhance user experience and meet evolving expectations, including mobile optimization and integration of AI for personalized services.
-
Data Security and Privacy: As a tech-driven company, Trip.com deals with large amounts of customer data. Data breaches or failure to protect user privacy can lead to reputational damage and regulatory fines.
-
Geopolitical Risks: Events such as trade disputes, natural disasters, or significant geopolitical tensions (e.g., between China and other countries) can impact travel patterns and operational logistics.
-
Sustainability and Environmental Concerns: Increasing awareness of environmental issues may lead consumers to choose more sustainable travel options, putting pressure on companies like Trip.com to adapt their business models accordingly.
-
Dependency on International Travel: Trip.com’s revenue is heavily reliant on international tourism. Any restrictions on international travel due to health crises, diplomatic issues, or other factors can disproportionately affect its business.
-
Customer Trust and Satisfaction: The pandemic has altered consumer confidence in travel. Trip.com must work to build and maintain trust with customers and ensure service quality to remain competitive.
Managers and stakeholders need to monitor these risks closely and formulate strategic responses to mitigate potential impacts.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Trip.com Group Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Trip.com Group Ltd
| Current Assets | 121.5B |
| Cash & Short-Term Investments | 89.8B |
| Receivables | 12.9B |
| Other Current Assets | 18.9B |
| Non-Current Assets | 126.3B |
| Long-Term Investments | 45.4B |
| PP&E | 5.8B |
| Intangibles | 71.9B |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 3.1B |
| Current Liabilities | 92.1B |
| Accounts Payable | 19.2B |
| Other Current Liabilities | 72.9B |
| Non-Current Liabilities | 25.2B |
| Long-Term Debt | 20B |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 5.2B |
Earnings Waterfall
Trip.com Group Ltd
|
Revenue
|
48.7B
CNY
|
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-9B
CNY
|
|
Gross Profit
|
39.7B
CNY
|
|
Operating Expenses
|
-26.7B
CNY
|
|
Operating Income
|
13B
CNY
|
|
Other Expenses
|
1.1B
CNY
|
|
Net Income
|
14.1B
CNY
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Trip.com Group Ltd
| CNY | |
| Free Cash Flow | CNY |
Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Trip.com Group Ltd's profitability score is 59/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Trip.com Group Ltd's profitability score is 59/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Trip.com Group Ltd's solvency score is 56/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Trip.com Group Ltd's solvency score is 56/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
Price Targets Summary
Trip.com Group Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for
Trip.com Group Ltd
is 576.85 HKD
with a low forecast of 383.8 HKD and a high forecast of 708.75 HKD.
Click here to dive deeper.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for Trip.com Group Ltd is
.
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Trip.com Group Ltd
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Trip.com Group Ltd. engages in the provision of travel-related services. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, Shanghai. The company went IPO on 2003-12-09. The firm aggregates hotel and transportation information to help leisure and business travelers make reservations. The firm helps leisure travelers book travel packages and guided tours and helps corporate clients manage their travel needs. The firm also offers a range of travel-related services to meet the different booking and travel needs of leisure and business travelers, including visitor reviews, attraction tickets, travel-related financial services, car services, travel insurance services and passport services. The firm also offers package tours for independent leisure travelers, including tour groups, semi-tour groups and private groups, as well as package tours that require different transportation arrangements (such as cruise, buses or self-driving).
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one
Trip.com Group Ltd
stock under the Base Case scenario is
529.87
HKD.
Compared to the current market price of 500 HKD,
Trip.com Group Ltd
is
Undervalued by 6%.
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