JD.Com Inc
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one JD.Com Inc stock under the Base Case scenario is 262.59 HKD. Compared to the current market price of 132.6 HKD, JD.Com Inc is Undervalued by 50%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
JD.Com Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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JD.Com Inc., founded in 1998 by Richard Liu, has evolved into one of China's largest and most reliable e-commerce platforms, distinguished by its commitment to quality and customer service. Unlike many of its competitors, JD.com operates on a direct sales model, which allows the company to maintain strict quality control over its inventory. This approach has earned JD.Com a loyal customer base, who trust the platform for its wide range of products, which includes electronics, clothing, and groceries. With a robust logistics network comprising hundreds of warehouses and delivery stations across China, JD.com has mastered the art of rapid delivery, often providing same-day or next-day services...
JD.Com Inc., founded in 1998 by Richard Liu, has evolved into one of China's largest and most reliable e-commerce platforms, distinguished by its commitment to quality and customer service. Unlike many of its competitors, JD.com operates on a direct sales model, which allows the company to maintain strict quality control over its inventory. This approach has earned JD.Com a loyal customer base, who trust the platform for its wide range of products, which includes electronics, clothing, and groceries. With a robust logistics network comprising hundreds of warehouses and delivery stations across China, JD.com has mastered the art of rapid delivery, often providing same-day or next-day services, which enhances the shopping experience and solidifies its competitive edge.
Investors eyeing JD.Com will find a company that's not only focused on growth but is also strategically expanding its reach through innovative technology and partnerships. As the Chinese middle class continues to grow, the demand for online shopping shows no sign of slowing down. JD.Com is not just resting on its laurels; it's actively investing in artificial intelligence, big data, and automation to streamline operations and improve customer engagement. The company's commitment to sustainability, including environmental initiatives and investments in green technology, also reflects a long-term vision that aligns with global trends toward responsible investing. For investors, JD.Com represents a unique opportunity to tap into the booming Chinese e-commerce market, backed by a team that values integrity and operational excellence.
JD.Com Inc., one of China's largest e-commerce companies, operates through several core business segments. Here’s a breakdown:
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E-commerce platform: This is the primary business segment of JD.com, which includes its online marketplace offering a wide range of products from electronics, clothing, and household goods to groceries. The platform allows third-party merchants to sell their products alongside JD's own inventory, providing a comprehensive shopping experience.
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Direct Sales: JD.com manages its own inventory and logistics for a significant portion of its sales, ensuring product quality and faster delivery. This segment includes JD's electronics and home appliance sales, which have historically been a strong performer due to the company's focus on authenticity and customer service.
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Logistics and supply chain services: JD Logistics is an essential segment separate from its core e-commerce operation. It offers warehousing, distribution, and delivery services not only for JD's marketplace but also for third-party retailers. JD.com has invested heavily in its logistics network, including advanced technology and infrastructure, to enhance the efficiency and reach of its services.
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JD Health: As part of its diversification strategy, JD.com has developed JD Health, which is focused on healthcare-related products and services, including pharmaceuticals and online consultation services. This segment capitalizes on the growing demand for health services and wellness products in China.
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JD Digits: This segment encompasses JD’s financial technology and technology services operations. JD Digits offers a variety of fintech solutions, including supply chain finance, credit assessment, and risk management, leveraging JD's vast data resources.
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International Business: JD.com has started expanding its reach outside China, which includes partnerships and investments in international markets. This segment includes cross-border e-commerce and global supply chain services, aiming to tap into the growing demand for Chinese products abroad.
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Marketing and advertising services: JD also offers advertising services to merchants on its platform, allowing them to promote their products through various digital marketing channels. This segment has become increasingly important for generating additional revenue.
These core segments reflect JD.com's strategy to leverage its robust logistics capabilities, enhance the customer shopping experience, and diversify its service offerings in response to changing market demands.
JD.Com Inc. has several unique competitive advantages that help it maintain a strong position in the highly competitive Chinese e-commerce market. Here are some key aspects:
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Logistics Infrastructure: JD.Com operates its own logistics network, including warehouses and delivery services, allowing for greater control over the supply chain. This results in faster and more reliable delivery services compared to rivals like Alibaba, which relies more on third-party logistics providers.
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Quality Control and Authenticity: JD.Com emphasizes the quality and authenticity of its products. Unlike some platforms that allow third-party sellers to list items, JD is known for selling products directly from manufacturers or authorized distributors, reducing the risk of counterfeit goods and enhancing consumer trust.
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Technological Investment: JD.Com has invested heavily in technology, including AI, big data, and automation within its warehouses. This investment improves operational efficiency and can lead to enhanced customer experiences through personalized services.
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Customer Service: JD.Com has a strong focus on customer service, providing robust support and efficient resolution processes. This can lead to higher customer satisfaction and loyalty, which is crucial in retaining users in a competitive market.
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Diverse Product Offerings: JD.Com offers a wide range of products, including electronics, household goods, and groceries, creating a one-stop shopping experience. This breadth helps attract and retain a diverse customer base.
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Partnerships and Ecosystem: JD.Com has formed significant partnerships with various brands and retailers, enhancing its product offerings and improving its market presence. This strategic collaboration can lead to better pricing, exclusive products, and improved market penetration.
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Focus on High-Quality Users: JD.Com has targeted higher income and more sophisticated consumers, often engaging with brands that appeal to this demographic. This enables the company to maintain robust sales figures and loyalty among quality-conscious customers.
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Innovative Business Models: JD.Com has explored different business models, including its “Jingxi” social commerce initiative and its penetration into rural markets, allowing it to reach new customer segments and maintain growth.
These competitive advantages collectively contribute to JD.Com’s solid position in the market, setting it apart from rivals and enabling continued growth and profitability.
JD.com Inc., one of China's leading e-commerce platforms, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. Some of the key ones include:
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Regulatory Environment: The Chinese government has been tightening regulations on the tech and e-commerce sectors. This includes stricter data privacy laws, antitrust regulations, and limitations on foreign investments, which can impact JD.com's operations and growth.
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Competition: The e-commerce market in China is highly competitive, with Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and newer entrants continually vying for market share. Increased competition can put pressure on JD.com to invest heavily in marketing, customer acquisition, and technology upgrades.
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Economic Conditions: Economic fluctuations, including slowdowns in consumer spending, can significantly affect JD’s sales. Given the global economic uncertainties and potential recessions, consumer confidence and disposable income levels could be adversely impacted.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Like many companies, JD.com relies on a robust supply chain to fulfill its orders. Disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, or global health crises (like the COVID-19 pandemic) can impact inventory and delivery times.
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Technological Challenges: The rapid pace of technological advancements requires constant adaptation. JD.com needs to keep investing in technology, such as AI and logistics solutions, to maintain its competitive edge.
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Consumer Preferences: Changes in consumer behavior and preferences, especially post-pandemic, can impact online shopping patterns. JD must adapt to changing demands, including shifts toward sustainable products or faster delivery options.
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International Expansion Risks: JD.com may seek to expand internationally, which brings risks related to market entry, local competition, regulatory compliance, and cultural differences.
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Cybersecurity Threats: With the increase in online transactions, JD.com is exposed to risks related to data breaches and cyberattacks. Protecting customer data and ensuring a secure shopping environment is paramount.
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Profitability Pressures: Despite revenue growth, JD.com faces pressure to maintain profitability, especially with rising operational costs and competition forcing pricing strategies that could squeeze margins.
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Public Relations and Brand Image: Any negative publicity, whether from operational issues, product quality concerns, or regulatory fines, can impact consumer trust and brand loyalty.
Addressing these challenges will require strategic planning, investment in technology and infrastructure, and a keen understanding of both local and global market dynamics.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
JD.Com Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
JD.Com Inc
Current Assets | 322.2B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 201.9B |
Receivables | 25.1B |
Other Current Assets | 95.2B |
Non-Current Assets | 329.4B |
Long-Term Investments | 142B |
PP&E | 107.1B |
Intangibles | 66.9B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 13.5B |
Current Liabilities | 280.2B |
Accounts Payable | 182.7B |
Accrued Liabilities | 49.8B |
Other Current Liabilities | 47.7B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 150.6B |
Long-Term Debt | 56.8B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 93.9B |
Earnings Waterfall
JD.Com Inc
Revenue
|
1.1T
CNY
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Cost of Revenue
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-937.3B
CNY
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Gross Profit
|
168B
CNY
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Operating Expenses
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-134.1B
CNY
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Operating Income
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33.9B
CNY
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Other Expenses
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-2.8B
CNY
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Net Income
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31.1B
CNY
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
JD.Com Inc
CNY | |
Free Cash Flow | CNY |
In Q3 2024, JD.com experienced a 5% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching RMB 260 billion, bolstered by a strong recovery in electronics and home appliances. The company enhanced profitability, with gross margin growing by 165 basis points to 17.3%. Following a USD 3 billion buyback plan, JD announced an additional USD 5 billion repurchase program over three years. The service revenues grew by 7%, while online promotions and competitive pricing strategies improved user engagement, contributing to a robust 20% increase in shopping frequency. JD predicts double-digit growth in non-GAAP net profit for the full year, emphasizing strong user acquisition and supply chain capabilities.
What is Earnings Call?
Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
JD.Com Inc's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
JD.Com Inc's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
JD.Com Inc's solvency score is 60/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
JD.Com Inc's solvency score is 60/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
Price Targets Summary
JD.Com Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JD.Com Inc is 174.29 HKD with a low forecast of 94.94 HKD and a high forecast of 243.6 HKD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for JD.Com Inc is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Industry
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Dividend Yield
Description
JD.com, Inc. is a technology driven E-commerce company. The company is headquartered in Beijing, Beijing. The company went IPO on 2014-05-22. The firm operates two segments. JD Retail segment consists of online retail, online marketplace and marketing services in China. The firm offers electronics products, home appliances and other general merchandise categories. The firm has its own online platform, which third-party merchants offer products on it. The firm provides marketing and display advertising services to third-party merchants, suppliers and other business partners on its website channels. New Businesses segment includes logistics services provided to third parties, overseas business, technology initiatives, as well as asset management services to logistics property investors and sale of development properties. The company offers comprehensive supply chain solutions to third parties through JD Logistics, including warehousing, transportation, delivery and after-sales service. The firm mainly conducts its businesses in the China market.
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The intrinsic value of one JD.Com Inc stock under the Base Case scenario is 262.59 HKD.
Compared to the current market price of 132.6 HKD, JD.Com Inc is Undervalued by 50%.