Autoliv Inc

F:LIV

Earnings Call Analysis

Autoliv Forecasts Stable Margins Amid Challenges

After the auto industry returned to pre-pandemic levels, 2024 is seen as transitional, with a near 1% global light vehicle production decline, partly from softer EV interest. Europe and Japan face sharper declines, while China's strong EV demand supports its production. Inflation pressures, particularly labor costs, are a concern but expected to be offset by price adjustments. Despite these challenges, Autoliv anticipates a 5% organic sales growth with an adjusted operating margin around 10.5%, aiming for around 12% long-term. The company continues to prioritize sustainability, aiming for a carbon-neutral operation by 2030 and net-zero supply chain emissions by 2040. Driving shareholder value, Autoliv maintains focus on cost control, quality, and efficiency, with strategic initiatives expected to mitigate inflation headwinds and enhance margins.

Overview of 2023 Performance and Future Outlook

In 2023, the company rounded off a successful year by surpassing several key financial indicators. They achieved a record in organic sales growth at 16%, notably in Asia and Japan, attributed to product launches and customer compensation for inflationary pressure. The company's gross margin and adjusted operating margins improved both year-over-year and sequentially. Share repurchases totaled approximately $352 million, underlining their commitment to shareholder value. Beyond these achievements, the firm intends to grow sales in mid-single digits in 2024 despite a small forecasted decline in Light Vehicle Production. They are confident this growth will bring them closer to their adjusted operating margin targets, hinting at a focus on stability, growth, and strategic initiatives.

Commitment to R&D and Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Penetration

The company celebrated a high order intake in 2023, indicating robust long-term prospects, especially in the electrification domain where approximately 45% of their orders pertained to EVs. This is indicative of their strategic alignment with both new EV manufacturers and traditional OEMs, suggesting that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the shift towards EVs, despite a temporary wane in consumer demand.

Quarterly Sales and Margins Surge

The fourth quarter saw an impressive 18% sales increase year-over-year, with adjusted operating income vaulting more than 40% to $334 million. These gains stem from higher volumes, favorable currency effects, and successful price negotiations. Nonetheless, operating cash flow slightly receded by $15 million due to timing of customer recoveries, yet remained robust at $447 million.

Strategic Cost Reduction Initiatives

To enhance competitiveness, the company executed a significant cost reduction plan aimed at reducing its workforce by up to 8,000 members. The expected annual cost savings are projected to be around $130 million, with substantial benefits materializing as early as 2024.

Geographic Sales Distribution and Market Share

Asia emerged as the leader in regional sales for the company, accounting for 41%, while the Americas followed at 31%, and Europe at 28%. Moreover, their global market share hovered around 45%, marking an increase since their spin-off five years ago. They are leveraging their market strength across all product lines to enhance shareholder returns.

Financial Guidance for 2024 and Cost Pressures

Heading into 2024, the company conservatively expects to outperform the Light Vehicle Production by 5 to 6 percentage points, promising another year of strong product launches and continued market share gains. However, they face inflationary challenges, particularly in labor costs which form a significant part of their expense structure. Still, they anticipate overcoming these through shrewd price adjustments and cost compensations, and project an adjusted operating margin of around 10.5% for the year with an operating cash flow target of $1.2 billion.

Focus on Sustainability and Growth Targets

The company has ingrained sustainability within their core business vision, adhering to international frameworks like the UN Global Compact. They aspire to reach carbon neutrality in their operations by 2030, with a broader goal of achieving net zero emissions throughout their supply chain by 2040, aligning their corporate growth with environmental stewardship.

Towards a Shareholder-focused 2024

For 2024, the company places its focus on margin improvement and shareholder value, driven by a diverse set of strategies including stringent cost control, efficiency gains in production and supply, and a firm commitment to their financial targets. They emphasize flawlessness in product launches and enhancing customer satisfaction to solidify their market position, and expect cash flow generation to remain a strong point in creating attractive shareholder value.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Anders Trapp. Please go ahead.

[Anders Trapp, executive]

Thank you, [ Nadia ]. Again, welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and me, Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations.

During today's earnings call, Mikael and Fredrik will, among other things, provide an overview of the record sales and earnings, the strong cash flow, balance sheet and order intake for 2023. They will also outline the expected sequential margin improvement in 2024 and the journey towards our targets. Mikael and Fredrik will also provide an update on our general business and market conditions. We will then remain available to respond to your questions. And as per usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com.

Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-K that will be filed with the SEC. Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 p.m. Central European Time. So please follow a limit of 2 questions per person.

I will now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

[Mikael Bratt, executive]

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide.

I'd like to recognize the entire team for delivering another strong quarter, which reflects our strong execution culture. We ended 2023 on a strong note as we achieved or exceeded all our 2023 indications. In the quarter, our organic sales grew by [ 16% ], outperforming Light Vehicle Production significantly, especially in rest of Asia and Japan. The strong growth was mainly a result of product launches and customer compensations for inflationary pressure as well as higher-than-expected Light Vehicle Production.

We generated a broad-based improvement in key areas, including gross margin and adjusted operating margins, both year-over-year and sequentially. Our cash flow was strong and the net debt [indiscernible] improved, while we increased our dividend and repurchased shares for $150 million in the quarter or approximately USD 352 million for the year. We are making progress towards our intention of reducing our indirect workforce by up to 2,000. We now expect savings of around $50 million in 2024 from these initiatives.

Order intake developed well. It is especially encouraging to see the strong order intake with fast-growing Chinese OEMs.

For 2024, we foresee sales growing in mid-single digits despite an expected modest decline in Light Vehicle Production. 2024 should take us one important step closer to our adjusted operating margin targets driven by improved call of stability, growth, structural and strategic initiatives and customer compensations. However, the heightened seasonality of earnings of prior years is likely to be repeated in 2024.

Now looking at the order intake more in detail on the next 2 slides. Our order intake for the full year continued to develop well, supporting long-term growth in a rapidly changing technology environment with many new OEMs and EV platforms. The estimated lifetime value of our 2023 order intake was the highest in the past 5 years. The strong order intake is an evidence that our company remains the clear leader in the [indiscernible] safety automotive industry.

One of our internal key performance indicators, customer satisfaction continues to be on a high level. We continue to strive for improving products, services, processes and costs while maintaining industry-leading quality. Our strong order intake with a good mix of EV and ICE platforms and the high level of customer satisfaction support, our confidence regarding growth also beyond 2024.

Looking on the next slide. In 2023, order intake for new EV platform was high, both with new EV makers and traditional OEMs. We estimate that around 45% of our order intake in 2023 was for future electric vehicles. Consumer demand for EVs may have faded somewhat in the short term, but regulatory changes supporting EVs will increase, at least in Europe. Although our products are drivetrain agnostic, it is important to have a balanced exposure both to EVs and ICE to capture future market growth. With the order book that we have built, we believe that we have a good exposure to all growing segments.

New automakers, mainly in North America and China, accounted for around 25% of our order intake. Fast-growing Chinese OEMs accounted for around 50% of our order intake in China. And we expect this group of OEMs to account for close to 40% of our Chinese sales in 2024, up from 22% in 2022. We won multiple awards supporting new markets and industry trends like Pretensioner Seatbelts for rear-seat passengers, airbags with low carbon cushion material as well as [ anti-submarine ] in air banks for zero gravity style seats for self-driving vehicles.

As a result of the strong order intake in the past years, we expect an increase in overall product launches in 2024, especially in China and Europe. This development contributes to building an even stronger platform for our long-term success.

Now looking at the significant sequential cost improvements during 2023 on the next slide. Year-to-date, we have generated a broad-based improvement in key areas, both year-over-year and sequentially. On this slide, we highlight the sequential improvements. In the fourth quarter, we continued to actively address our cost base while successfully negotiating with our customers to secure pricing and other compensations that reflect the higher inflation. Our direct labor productivity continues to trend up, support by the implementation of our strategic initiatives, including automization and digitalization.

Our gross margin improved by 410 basis points compared to the first quarter and by 140 basis points from the third quarter. This is mainly the result of the higher labor efficiency and customer compensations. The positive trend for RD&E and SG&A in relation to sales have continued and have now declined by 270 basis points since Q1, partly as a result of normal seasonality with high engineering reimbursements in the fourth quarter. Combined with the gross margin improvement, this led to substantial improvement -- substantial improvement in adjusted operating margin.

Looking now on financials in more details on the next slide. Sales in the fourth quarter increased by 18% year-over-year, mainly due to higher Light Vehicle Production, new product launches, higher prices and other compensations and favorable currency translation effects. The strong sales increase and cost reduction activities led to substantial improvement in adjusted operating income.

Adjusted operating income increased by more than 40% to $334 million from $233 million last year. The adjusted operating margin was 12.1% in the quarter, an increase by over 2 percentage points from the same period last year and by almost 7 percentage points from the first quarter.

Operating cash flow was $447 million, which was $15 million lower than the same period last year. The main reason for lower cash flow was the unusual strong cash flow last year which was related to timing effects of customer recoveries.

Looking now on the structural cost savings activities on the next slide. To secure our medium- and long-term competitiveness and to support our financial targets, we launched a cost reduction initiative in June 2023, with the intent of reducing our indirect headcount by up to 2,000 and the direct workforce headcount reduction of up to 6,000. We estimate that the annual cost reductions will amount to around [ $130 million ] when fully implemented with around $50 million already in 2024 and around $100 million expected in 2025.

Total accrual for capacity alignment in 2023 amounted to USD 218 million. We do not plan to announce further [indiscernible] reduction initiative details. At the end of 2023, around 75% of the planned indirect reductions were detailed and announced. We already see positive impact on direct [indiscernible] productivity as a result.

Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales increased to almost USD 2.8 billion, a new quarterly result. This was over $400 million higher than a year earlier driven by price, volume, mix and currencies. Out-of-period cost compensation contributed with USD 45 million, out-of-period compensations are attractive price adjustments and other compensations that mainly relate to the first 3 quarters but were negotiated in the fourth quarter.

Looking on the regional sales split. Asia accounted for 41%, Americas for 31% and Europe at 28%. We outlined our organic sales growth compared to LVP on the next slide.

I am very pleased that our organic sales growth significantly outperformed global Light Vehicle Production growth in the fourth quarter as we continue to execute on our strong order book. According to S&P Global, fourth quarter Light Vehicle Production increased by 9% year-over-year. This was more than 5 percentage points higher than expectations at the beginning of the quarter, with most of the higher-than-expected production coming from domestic OEMs in China and in North America as the impact of the UAW strike more than expected.

In the quarter, we outperformed global Light Vehicle Production by around 7 percentage points, with strong performance, especially in rest of Asia and Japan. The modest underperformance in China was mainly driven by a negative customer mix, following strong Light Vehicle Production growth for lower safety content vehicles.

On to the next slide. For the full year, we outperformed global Light Vehicle Production by around 9 percentage points despite a negative regional Light Vehicle Production mix. We outperformed in Japan by 15 percentage points in rest of Asia by 14 percentage points, and in China by 8 percentage points. The performance in China was mainly driven by increasing sales to domestic Chinese OEMs. Our sales to this group outperformed Light Vehicle Production by 17 percentage points and accounted for 28% of our sales in China, up from to 22% in 2022.

In 2023, our global market share was around 45%. This is almost 6 percentage points higher than 5 years ago when the electronic disease was spun off. Our global market position is strong in all product categories with 47% of airbags, 45% of seat belts and 40% of steering wheels. Supported by new launches, market share gains and content per vehicle growth as well as our further price increases, we expect sales to outperform Light Vehicle Production by 5 to 6 percentage points in 2024.

On the next slide, we see some key model launches for the fourth quarter. During 2023, we had a record number of product launches, especially in China, Europe and Japan. For 2024, we see another step up in a number of product launches, particularly in the first half of the year. The trend towards electrification is clear on this slide, with 7 models being available as electric versions. The models shown here have an [indiscernible] content per vehicle of around 110 or higher with the highest at over [indiscernible]. In terms of Autoliv sales potential, the Zeekr 007 launch is the most significant.

I will now hand it over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk you through the financials on the next slide.

[Fredrik Westin, executive]

Thank you, Mikael. This slide highlights our key figures for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

Our net sales were almost $2.8 billion, this was an increase of 18% year-over-year. Gross profit increased by $131 million or by 33% to $530 million, while the gross margin increased by 2.2 percentage points to 19.3%. The adjusted operating income increased from $233 million to $334 million, and the adjusted operating margin increased by 220 basis points to 12.1%. Non-GAAP adjustments amounted to $97 million, almost entirely for capacity alignments. Adjusted earnings per share diluted increased by [ $0.191 ] where the main drivers were $0.75 of higher adjusted operating income, [ $0.109 ] from tax and $0.10 from other items, partly offset by financial items. Our adjusted return on capital employed and return on equity increased to 33% and 47%, respectively. We increased the dividend to $0.68 per share in the quarter, and we purchased and retired 1.5 million shares for around $150 million under our existing $1.5 billion stock repurchase program.

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the fourth quarter of 2023, our adjusted operating income of $334 million was $101 million higher than the same quarter last year. Our operations were positively impacted by improved pricing and other customer compensations, higher volumes, lower cost for premium freight as well as our strategic initiatives but partly offset by headwinds from general cost inflation. The impact from raw material prices were $14 million positive. Out-of-period cost compensation was approximately $37 million higher than during the same period last year. The FX impact was limited. Cost for SG&A and RD&E net combined was $30 million higher, mainly due to lower engineering income and labor cost inflation. In relation to sales, it was unchanged compared to last year.

The margin was also affected by the accruals for warranty and recalls of [ $17 million ] or 65 basis points. The accruals are related to 3 different cases. As a result, the leverage on the higher sales, excluding currency effects and warranty and recall costs was in the upper half of our typical 20% to 30% operational leverage range.

Looking now on the full year financial results on the next slide. Despite higher-than-expected Light Vehicle Production, 2023 was again a turbulent year with labor cost inflation, supply disruptions customer price negotiations and continued volatile Light Vehicle Production. Our net sales were $10.5 billion, with sales increasing organically by over 18%, twice [indiscernible] in the underlying Light Vehicle Production and 3 percentage points higher than expected in the beginning of the year. The adjusted operating income increased by 54% to $920 million. The adjusted operating margin was 8.8% compared to our guidance of around 8.5% to 9%. The operating cash flow was $982 million compared to the guidance of around $900 million. Adjusted earnings per share increased by $3.7 per share to $8.19 where the main drivers were $2.51 from higher adjusted operating income $1.31 from lower income taxes, partly offset by $0.18 from financial items. Dividends of $2.66 share were paid and we repurchased and retired 3.7 million shares for around $352 million. Sales, adjusted operating income, operating cash flow as well as the adjusted earnings per share were all the highest we have ever achieved.

Looking now at the full year adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In 2023, our adjusted operating income of $920 million was $322 million higher than last year. The impact from raw material prices was limited. FX impacted the operating profit negatively by $54 million. This was mainly a result of negative translation effects for [ Mexican peso ]. Cost of SG&A and RD&E net combined was $95 million higher. However, in relation to sales, it was down 60 basis points. As a result, the leverage on the higher sales, excluding currency effects, was slightly above our typical 20% to 30% operational leverage range. This is despite not getting any leverage on the inflation compensation from our customers.

Looking now at the cash flow on the next slide. For the fourth quarter of 2023, operating cash flow decreased by $15 million to SEK 447 million compared to the same period last year, which was impacted by positive timing effects of customer compensations. Capital expenditures net decreased to $150 million to $165 million. Relation to sales, it was 5.4% this year, down from 7.1% last year. Free cash flow was $297 million, about the same as last year. Our full year operating cash flow was $982 million, a new record for the company. Full year capital expenditures net in relation to sales was virtually unchanged at 5.4%. Free cash flow for the full year improved year-over-year by $186 million to $414 million. Our cash conversion, defined as free cash flow in relation to net income was 85%.

Now looking on our trade working capital development on the next slide. During the fourth quarter, trade working capital decreased by $71 million, driven by $120 million higher accounts payables, partly offset by $30 million higher inventories and by $19 million in higher receivables. The higher inventories and receivables were mainly due -- mainly due to the higher sales. Our capital efficiency program aims to improve working capital by $800 million and to date, we have achieved $580 million. Improvements in receivables and especially in inventories are lagging due to the high coal of volatility and hence, planning changes resulting in efficiencies. We expect this to improve significantly in tandem with the reduced [indiscernible] over coming years.

Now looking at shareholder returns over the past 5 years on the next slide. Over the years, Autoliv has shown its ability to generate solid cash flow in periods with difficult market environments, such as Corvid lockdowns, war in Ukraine, industry supply chain challenges and related volatile and declining Light Vehicle Production. We have used both dividend payments and share repurchases to create shareholder value. Historically, the dividend has usually represented a yield of approximately 2% to 3% in relation to the average share price. Over the last 5 years, we have reduced the net debt significantly while returning almost $1.4 billion directly to shareholders. This includes stock repurchases of 5.1 million shares for a total of USD 467 million as part of the current stock repurchase program. Since we initiated the stock repurchase program, we have reduced the number of outstanding shares by almost 6%.

We do consider several factors when executing the program such as our balance sheet, the cash flow outlook, our credit rating and the general business conditions and not all the debt leverage ratio. We always strive to balance what is best for our shareholders, both short and long term.

Now looking on our leverage ratio development on the next slide. Despite increased stock repurchases and higher dividend, the debt leverage ratio at the end of December 2023 improved to 1.2x from 1.3x at the end of the third quarter. This was a result of $108 million higher 12 months trailing asset EBITDA as the net debt was unchanged. We expect that our debt leverage and positive cash flow trend will allow for continued high shareholder returns going forward.

I now hand it back to you, Mikael.

[Mikael Bratt, executive]

Thank you, Fredrik. On to the next slide.

After a year where the global auto industry finally reached pre-pandemic levels to 2024 is shaping up to be something of a transitional year. With many regions having already rebuilt inventories, S&P continues to see a production outlook is more reliant on the end customer demand.

Global Light Vehicle Production is [indiscernible] to decline by close to 1% in 2024. This is due to affordability of new vehicles, somewhat softer interest in EVs in some regions and high interest rates. Most expect the decline is in Japan and Europe. S&P Global expects first half year global Light Vehicle Production to increase 1%, while [indiscernible] second half declining almost 3% compared to last year.

Light vehicle production in China continues to be supported by strong EV demand and export activity. In North America, the UAW strike and the strong vehicle sales towards the end of 2023 have reduced inventories somewhat bolstering production volumes slightly for 2024. Production in Europe is expected to decline as inventory restocking will no longer boost output as was the case over the last 2 years.

We based our full year sales indication on a global Light Vehicle Production decline of around 1%.

Now looking on the next slide. In 2023, the main cost challenges were around labor, cost inflation and energy. For 2024, we expect inflation mainly to impact labor costs for us and for our suppliers. We estimate the combined labor exposure, our own and our suppliers represents more than 40% of our cost base. Already during 2023, the tight labor market in some countries resulted in significantly higher than normal labor inflation. For 2024, we foresee further headwinds from wage increases, especially in Europe and North America.

Although many quality indices are down since their peak in 2022, we currently assume raw material costs to only decline slightly in 2024. The reason being that the prices of specific raw material used in our products, such as automotive grade steel has not declined as much as the generic steel indices indicate. Additionally, we see higher costs for some materials such as [indiscernible] and resin. The [ Red Sea ] situation has not yet had any measurable impact on our own operations. We have noticed that some customers have reduced their volumes short term, but it is too early to estimate what potential impact it may have for 2024. Cost compensation negotiations will again be challenging, but nevertheless, we expect that price adjustments and other compensation will offset cost inflation.

Looking at the 2024 business outlook on the next slide. We expect a significantly improvement in adjusted operating margin in 2024 compared to 2023, supported mainly by organic sales growth, a more stable Light Vehicle Production, structural and strategic initiatives, cost control and customer compensations. We expect the adjusted operating margin in the first quarter to be around 7%, a significant decline from the fourth quarter in 2023 due to lower Light Vehicle Production, lower engineering income, cost inflation and timing of cost compensation. This is in line with the seasonality in the past 2 years.

We anticipate price adjustments and cost compensations will gradually throughout the year offset cost inflation and the pattern is expected to be similar to the quarterly pattern seen in 2022 and 2023 with limited positive effects in the first [ quarter ]. This trajectory should be further supported by improvements from strict cost control, structural savings as well as expected gradual improvement of the supply chain and Light Vehicle Production stability.

Looking at our 2024 financial guidance on the next slide. This slide shows our full year 2024 guidance, which excludes costs and gains from capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters and other discrete items. Our full year guidance is based on a Light Vehicle Production decline of around 1%. Despite lower Light Vehicle Production, our organic sales is expected to increase by around 5%. No net currency translation effects are expected on sales. The guidance for adjusted operating margin is around 10.5%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD 1.2 billion. Our positive cash flow trend should allow for continued high shareholder returns. We foresee a tax rate of around 28%, in line with our previous indications, of 25% to 30% as the new normal tax rate.

Looking to our sustainability approach on the next slide. Guided by our vision of saving more lives. Our mission is to provide world-class life-saving solutions from [indiscernible] and society. Sustainability is an integral part of our business strategy and an important driver for market differentiation and stakeholder value creation, helping to ensure that our business will continue to thrive and contribute to sustainable development in the long term.

Our sustainability approach is based on 4 focus areas: saving more lives, safe and inclusive workplace, climate and responsible business, each consisting of long-term ambitions and more specific short-term targets. Our sustainability approach is anchored in well-established international frameworks such as the UN Global Compact and Science-based Targets. We aim to be carbon neutral in our own operations by 2030, and further aim for net zero emissions across our supply chain by 2040. These ambitions plays out to live among the front runners in the broader group of automotive suppliers.

Now looking at the sustainability progress in 2023 on the next slide. During 2023, we initiated and concluded a number of activities that highlight our commitment and contribution to the UN sustainable development goals and our own sustainability targets. For example, we are -- we are at the forefront of broadening test models and to include more body shapes and parameters such as age and gender. We have increased the use of renewable electricity, contributing to a significant decrease in greenhouse gas emissions from our own operations. The incidence rates have improved, and we carried out our annual climate survey at direct material suppliers to track their alignment with our climate requirements and ambitions.

Turning the slide to look at progress towards our targets. In the medium term, we are expecting to continue to grow our core business, airbags, seatbelts and steering wheels through execution on the current strong order books. The other important growth driver is safety content per vehicle, which is driven by continuous updates of government regulation and cross test ratings. Our growth target for the 3 years, 2022, 2023 and 2024 was to grow organically by around 4 percentage points more than Light Vehicle Production growth per year on average. This excludes any price compensation for raw material and other inflationary costs. The growth in 2022 and 2023 and the guidance for 2024 means that we expect to exceed these targets.

To maintain the growth momentum beyond 2024, we are pursuing an ambitious innovation program, the strong 2023 order intake supports continued growth momentum.

Now looking on the multiple levers for margin improvement on the next slide. In the past 2 years, Autoliv has significantly reduced its cost base. We have implemented hundreds of cost efficiency projects, especially in production and supply chain. Our adjusted operating margin target of around 12% is based on the framework communicated at our Investor Day in June 2023. A business environment with a stable global light vehicle production of at least $85 million and that headwinds from inflation is offset through price compensations. We remain confident that when [indiscernible] and these conditions are met for the full year, we are capable to reach a 12% adjusted operating [ margin ] target.

We now expect that the light vehicle production conditions will be fulfilled during 2024. We expect that call of volatility through 2024 will be lower than in 2023 but remain higher than the pre-pandemic level, having a negative impact on our productivity and efficiency. We expect continued inflationary pressure in 2024 with customer compensations lagging behind the cost increases. To offset the negative effects from inflation and market conditions and to secure our long-term competitiveness, we have launched a number of cost saving activities. We believe that the net effect of our actions and headwinds should result in a substantial step in 2024 towards our adjusted operating margin target.

Now looking on delivering shareholder value through our 2024 business agenda on the next slide. To drive towards our financial targets and deliver shareholder value, the health and safety of our employees is our first priority, while continuing more activities to further improve quality and efficiency. We also continue our efforts of flawless execution of new launches, improving customer satisfaction further, and thereby, supporting our new and strong market position. Through our capital efficiency program, we aim to unlock capital from receivables, inventory and payables, combined with the execution of our strategic plan, this should lead to a strong cash flow generation which sets Autoliv up for attractive shareholder value creation.

By executing on our strategic initiatives, footprint optimization and negotiating compensation from OEMs we believe we will mitigate headwinds from cost inflation. To progress towards our climate targets, we will focus on increased resource efficiency and reduction of carbon footprint.

I will now hand it back to Anders.

[Anders Trapp, executive]

Thank you, Mikael. Turning to the last page. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors.

I now hand it back to you, Nadia.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] And now we're going to take our first question, and it comes from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

[Colin Langan, analyst]

Just looking at the -- you comment on this a bit, your long-term target is 4% over market. The guidance implies about 6%, I think you said on Slides 5 to 6, any reason why it's so strong this year? And maybe is that including some of the inflationary cost recoveries that you're expecting? I know that was a bit of a help last year. And any thoughts on the China headwind you called out in the quarter. Is that also kind of going to continue?

[Mikael Bratt, executive]

Thank you for your questions there. The 4% outperformance versus LVP takes us into 2024. So this is the last year of the 3-year period that we have communicated on. And as we said there, we expect to over-deliver on that target. And of course, it is thanks to the growth we have created through the order intake over the last couple of years. And of course, we have seen a good development on the content per vehicle also, and we expect to see that also next year. This excluded, as we mentioned here, also the price negotiations that is on top of that. Then beyond 2024, we have the 4% to 6$, where the core 4% to 6% organic growth target where the current, let's say, core business should be 2% to 4%. So that is our take beyond 2024.

Regarding China, the the minus 2% versus LVP, we saw in the fourth quarter is due to mix effects. As we mentioned here, we had growth -- significant growth on the low-end vehicles or, let's say, the vehicles with lower safety content than usual. But if you look at the full year, we had a very strong outperformance there of 8% for the full year. So we look very positively on China, and we feel that we are well positioned with -- let's say, the new EV players and also the OEMs in general there. So a positive view on China going forward.

[Colin Langan, analyst]

Got it. And any color on -- you called out labor inflation again with other costs. Any way to frame how large this is in terms of dollars or the impact that's dragging your margins this year?

[Fredrik Westin, executive]

Yes. I mean we expect it actually to be about the same level as we had last year, which -- where we said would be somewhere mid-single digit above normal inflation. So pre -- basically. And we're also giving some breakdown here on the slides on our -- on the labor cost as a percent of [indiscernible]. So with that, you can calculate what the impact is. And that's the major inflation where expecting. Then on top of that, we also expect some energy increases basically as a surcharge on materials that we're buying, especially on textiles. So those are the main 2 components.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Giulio Pescatore from BNP Paribas Exane.

[Giulio Pescatore, analyst]

The first one on the buyback. Just wondering if you're comfortable getting closer to the upper end of the leverage range in 2024, especially considering a further uplift in margin potentially in 2025 and the good cash flow generation you expect for this year?

Then my second question on implement compensation. You mentioned that you expect full compensation for costs. Does that mean at the end of the year. So we shouldn't expect full compensation on 2024 as a whole but by the end of the year, you think you can have full compensation with potentially some slippage in the first few months. Is that a fair way to describe it?

[Mikael Bratt, executive]

Thank you for your question. On the buybacks, as you know, we only report on what we have done on a regular basis through our web page here. We are, I mean, very committed to our program that we have. And I think you can see that we have in the fourth quarter here, a healthy level of buybacks. And -- of course, we are focusing a lot on making sure that we have the cash flow generation needed. And as you see from the report here, we are committed to be a shareholder-friendly company when it comes to both the regular dividend and also to the buyback program, and we will come back on that as we progress here. But -- that's as much as I could say here today.

Regarding the inflationary, there is a lead time. And as we have indicated here already, you see -- let's say, the cost effect from inflation hitting us earlier in the year, and then we have the negotiation throughout the year. And in the same fashion as we were stating last year. Our focus here is to get the full compensation and the height of the compensation rather than to looking at the quarter-by-quarter here. So it's the full year compensation that is the priority and the height of it. So therefore, you get this, let's say, new seasonality, if we call it that, where you have Q1 and then revenue improved throughout the year. So that's the reason behind that.

I don't know and if you would like to add anything there, Fredrik?

[Fredrik Westin, executive]

No. And overall, our expectation is we should be compensated also for the full year effect. And then that was also the case in 2023, whereas 2022, with the raw material compensation, there was a component that we not -- were not compensated for in '22. Hence, there was a carryover effect into '23, but we don't expect that same pattern for '24.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

[Emmanuel Rosner, analyst]

My first question, I was hoping to ask you, but could you comment a little bit more about your path towards the 12% reiterated operating margin target? Very much appreciated the scorecard that you put at the end of the slide deck. So if I'm understanding it correctly, it looks like production is probably in the right level at least, maybe cost recovery sort of like offset by some of your cost reduction programs. So is the main impediment to getting to your targets, the co-op accuracy? And if so, I guess, what is the line of sight? Is it fair to assume that this will normalize? Or are there further actions that you need to get you to these targets?

[Fredrik Westin, executive]

Okay. I mean there's a lot of components in your question. So overall, the framework is, I think, pretty clear. $85 million, we say as it looks right now, $85 million seems to be in place as an assumption here for 2024. Then when it comes to the other 2 that we are made whole on the inflation compensation, that will potentially have an impact also on a full year as long as we have inflation and there's always this catch-up effect from when costs come in until we are compensated for. Again, our ambition is to have that also in place for 2024 but that remains to be seen also how inflation develops during the year.

Then the last component is on call of stability and here, we have a graph in our presentation where it's clearly not in place going into the year. I mean we've seen it kind of stabilizing at around 90% now or during the second half of last year. We are not sure right now that this will improve significantly during 2024. And then there's also -- even if it were to come up to pre-pandemic levels, closer to the 100%, there's also a time lag of when say that accuracy is actually in place until we can also get the efficiency out in our network.

So it -- yes, it's trending towards the framework, but for sure, 2024, it will not be in place and it remains to be seen how much of that -- the #2 and 3 here will come in place during '24, and then what the impact is for '25.

Looking at the building blocks of how to get from the 8.8% that we had now in '23, up to the 12%. It's roughly -- you can divide into 3 buckets. One is the structural initiatives and the headcount reductions. The second one is the volatility improvement, combined with the labor productivity development. And then the third component is sales growth and our strategic initiatives. And it's roughly, I would say, 1/3 margin contribution from those 3 buckets.

[Emmanuel Rosner, analyst]

So let me just -- for my second question on the sales growth piece of it. As we look past this year and towards some of your targets, I think we started in the past, you had reported sometimes on your annual win rate. And oftentimes, they were at like 50% or better. Obviously, your market share, you reported at 45%. What is your -- can you comment on the win rates? And I guess what is the confidence level in being able to capture additional market share over the next few years beyond the 2024 framework?

[Mikael Bratt, executive]

Yes. As you know, we have since last year communicated here around the lifetime revenue on the order intake. And I think, we had a very good 2023 and the highest in 5 years here in terms of lifetime revenue. And -- what we are saying here is that we reached the 45% market share in 2023, which we have indicated since some years back that, that was what we expected us to grow into. And with the order intake and the order book we have, we expect to fund this market share.

We do not have, I would say, a target or an ambition to set a new level of our market share here. It is really to defend this market share position with healthy business, of course. If we can grow more in a healthy way, of course, we will do it, but it's not targeting itself. So the growth that we expect going forward the 2% to 4%, as I talked about, and we have announced earlier beyond 2024 is connected to Light Vehicle Production and [indiscernible] with more sophisticated products.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from line of Michael Jacks from Bank of America Securities.

[Michael Jacks, analyst]

First one, just on price recoveries. Some other suppliers have struggled to compensation for wage inflation and Autoliv has clearly been more successful. Is there anything structural you could point towards that gives you the confidence that you can achieve the same in 2024?

And then the second question is just on working capital. What is the magnitude of improvement expected in 2024 in relation to the remaining gap of $220 million to the [indiscernible] target that you have in mind?

[Mikael Bratt, executive]

Thank you. Let me start with the price recovery and Fredrik will comment on the working capital there.

On the price recovery, I can't [indiscernible] structural to it. I think it's I mean, of course, I can only comment on what we are doing here. And we have now, for the last 2 years, have had very constructive dialogues with our customers around the over and above normal cost increases we see in the system here. And I mean, we're starting out with raw materials. And there, we have also mentioned that we have made some indication -- higher level of indexation to those contracts here also. So I mean, it works both ways, obviously. So when we see that come down, we will also hand that back to our customers.

When it comes to the other components here, it is a little bit different to its nature. But I think it's important to get compensation for what is the inflationary components here. And we -- for this year, definitely have the labor in focus here. And I mean that's the nature of inflation. It needs to be passed on to the end consumer here and meaning the price of the car at the end of the day. So we need to push that on because there is no possibility for us to compensate our suppliers unless we get the pass on here. It's not sustainable, and that's something we also need to continue to work hard with and we will do that. And that's our cost here going forward as well.

[Fredrik Westin, executive]

Michael, on your second question, working capital. Yes, so we reported here that we have achieved around $580 million of the $800 million target that we set ourselves. In the $800 million target, we had also detailed at around $50 million of that would come to improved payables. And that we have achieved or even overachieved already to date. So we don't expect more to be contributed from that component.

So the inventory is challenging right now due to the call affordability as we show here that it's kind of stabilizing at still to the core levels. And as I mentioned, we don't expect this to improve significantly during 2024. And accordingly, we do not also expect that we will be able to do so much on the inventory side either in 2024 and we do [indiscernible] guide for working capital specifically, but you see a very strong operating cash flow guidance here of $1.2 billion, but there is then more opportunity coming later from improving working capital further.

[Operator]

And the question comes from the line of Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken.

[Hampus Engellau, analyst]

Two question for me. Despite [indiscernible]. But I'm curious about the drop in active [indiscernible] sales during the quarter, minus 11%, given the big spread to the LVP that increased by more than 9% if you don't have -- we can take that later, but it's just my curiosity. I had -- I mean, sorry to come back this cost inflation because I'm trying to understand the dynamics here. I can definitely see that the [indiscernible] are retroactively compensating you guys for rising cost in the quarters. But on the labor side, could you maybe give us some more going on how those negations are going, given that those cost savings are quite permanent and [indiscernible]? And are you guys getting compensated [indiscernible] for these also? And well, how does that [indiscernible] work?

[Mikael Bratt, executive]

I think on the active seatbelt side, is -- no drama into that. Of course, you get mix effect also in specific years where you have maybe some outgoing car model where you had a high level of -- in this case, the active seatbelts. And my expectation here is that you should see that recovery recurring in the next year here. So no drama to that with more of a temporary mix effect.

Then on the cost compensation here, if I understand you right. I mean the nature of -- I mean, as you said, labor cost increase is sticky, and therefore, it's I mean, it will not come down. I think we can call it. So of course, there is an absolute necessity that, that inflationary component has to come through. There is no room for anything else, and that is what we are doing here. And we, of course, have very detailed supporting means to when we go to our customers, how that connects to their specific business and how it's correlated. So that's something we need to go through. And I mean we went through that partly already last year when we saw in some cases and in some regions, that impact already in 2023. So we expect to do more of that.

[Operator]

And our question comes from the line of [indiscernible] from Danske Bank.

[Unknown Analyst]

I have a question also on price. I mean, you have been very successful in getting compensation, but also we have seen, I mean, OEMs coming from high probability. And as I say, you mentioned yourself, we need to see inflation coming to the price of the cars. But we have also seen price cuts on cars. We've also seen OEMs reporting lower profitability and accepting perhaps a lower profitability as they are investing in price in a way, is this a situation that impact subsuppliers in general? Or how has it been in the past? That's my first question.

[Mikael Bratt, executive]

Thank you, [indiscernible]. No, I think I see what you referring to here. But I mean, first of all, it has never been easy [ dissociation ], not even when we saw record profitability at OEMs and I think the point from my side here is that it has nothing to do with their profitability or our profitability. This is inflation that needs to be passed on. It's not sustainable for us to pay our suppliers unless we can get the pass-through. So that's just something that we are very firm on and needs to continue to be firm on. There is no other way than that.

Then I think when you look at the price reductions and so on towards the end consumers, I think there is, of course, different reasons for that you see those prices coming down, which probably is more on an individual basis between the OEMs. So I have no comments around that but we need to focus on our business here, which we are doing. So just to continue to press on there.

[Unknown Analyst]

And just a follow-up and perhaps in the past, we have not really seen a correlation between car prices and your price negotiations. I mean, you have your negotiations with the team at your customers and then there are other teams selling in the price for -- on the actual cars? Or is there a correlation?

[Mikael Bratt, executive]

No. I mean, not from our perspective, it's no [indiscernible] and I think that's my point here that they need -- I mean each company takes care of their business. And in our case here, we need to get compensation for the inflation in our system, which includes...

[Unknown Analyst]

And one more thing. I mean, last year, I'd like to remember that you had an outlook that was based on an LVP a little bit below what was in the market back then or by S&P and now you are in line with them. And last year, we also saw catch-up driven sales and now it's more assets you highlight more in line with the market. Is there a nervousness on where the market will end up when you are talking to your customers or people in the industry as we are maybe heading into more of a slowdown or more visible this year than last year?

[Mikael Bratt, executive]

No, I think, I mean, at least from the dialogues we have with our customers on the way forward here. I don't see any discrepancies to what we refer to here as the minus 1% from S&P Global in general here. I think there is more of this mix effect between ICE and EVs and especially in Europe, where maybe the EVs is slowing down somewhat but it's more a mix effect there. And for us, that is neutral because as you know, we are well represented in both categories, and we are agnostic to the driveline question here. So we don't see the effect on our end here.

[Operator]

Dear participants due to time, we are not taking any further questions.

I would like now to hand the conference over to Mikael Bratt for any closing remarks.

[Mikael Bratt, executive]

Thank you very much, Nadia.

I am confident that we will deliver a substantial increase in sales, operating cash flow and adjusted operating income in 2024 and while maintaining substantial shareholder return -- maintaining substantial shareholder return. Our actions are creating both short-term and long-term improvements, and we believe these actions enable us to take important steps towards our targets. While we remain agile and prepare for more adverse market development, should that be necessary.

Autoliv continues to focus on our vision of saving more lives, which is our most important direct contribution to a sustainable society.

Our first quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, April 26, 2024. Thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv. Until next time, stay safe.

[Operator]

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.