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Good morning, and welcome to the HCP Inc Second Quarter Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Andrew Johns, Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Welcome to HCP's second quarter financial results conference call. Today's conference call will contain certain forward-looking statements. Although, we believe expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions. Our forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. The discussion of risks and risk factors is included in our press release and detailed in our filings with the SEC. We do not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements.
Certain non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on today's call. In an exhibit to the 8-K we furnished to the SEC yesterday, we have reconciled our non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in accordance with Reg G requirements. The exhibit is also available on our website at www.hcpi.com.
I will now turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Herzog.
Thanks, Andrew, and good morning everyone. With me today are Pete Scott, our Chief Financial Officer; and Scott Brinker, our Chief Investment Officer. Also here and available for the Q&A portion of the call are Tom Klaritch, our Chief Development and Operating Officer; and Troy McHenry, our General Counsel.
Let me start by saying it was quite an active and productive first half of 2019. The work our team has done to restructure the portfolio, strengthen the balance sheet and enhance infrastructure has positioned us to take advantage of favorable capital market conditions and accelerate our growth across all three of our core business segments of life science, senior housing and medical office.
Specifically, we had better than expected operational performance in both our life science and medical office segments. We continue making progress transforming our senior housing segment, which has performed generally in line with our expectations. We continue to reposition our portfolio for success with the acquisitions of $1.5 billion of strategic core real estate, and closed replaced under contract $440 million of non-core asset dispositions.
In addition, we raised $650 million of equity. We refinanced $1.3 billion of debt, and we improved our liquidity by upsizing and extending our credit facility. These actions and positive outcomes have allowed us to increase the midpoint of our guidance ranges for FFO as adjusted by $0.02 per share and the total SPP NOI growth by 50 basis points.
Big picture, we remain focused on targeting attractive external growth in each of our private paid segments, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation. Life science, we continued our strategy of increasing density in our three core markets of San Francisco, San Diego and Boston.
Last night, we announced the acquisition of the Hartwell Innovation Campus, which expanded our Boston portfolio. After an additional scale in this premier life science market is important to HCP, as we continue to see demand from growing tenants in the short-term and positive demand versus supply fundamentals in the long-term.
Medical office, our on campus properties continue to be a preferred solution for specialist physicians, hospitals and health systems. We're experiencing solid and consistent earnings growth across the portfolio. Our active redevelopment program is improving the competitive nature of a number of our irreplaceable, but older on campus MOB asset.
The team has identified $70 million to $100 million of projects annually for the next few years and we expect to generate cash-on-cash returns in the range of 10% to 12%. And on senior housing, the rapid transformation of our portfolio and platform continues. HCP is well positioned as the fundamentals in the sector begin to improve over the next couple of years.
Additional senior housing transactions announced today represent continued execution of our plan, which includes recycling capital away from older, non-core properties, misaligned deal structures for modern real estate and attractive markets with leading operators.
As we look ahead, our business plan remains straightforward and disciplined. We will maximize value from our current portfolio through focused capital allocations supported by an ever improving operational and organizational platform. [Technical Difficulty] to grow through acquisitions in our three core segments, but only when our cost of capital is supportive. [Technical Difficulty] keep our portfolio fresh by maintaining a largely self-funded development and redevelopment pipeline that will allow us to continue to refresh the portfolio on a non-dilutive basis. We maintain a conservative balance sheet with ample liquidity and continue our decade long focus on our ESG efforts.
With that, I'll turn it over to Pete.
Thanks, Tom. I'm pleased to report that we have had a great start to the year. Second quarter, we reported FFO as adjusted of $0.44 per share and blended same store cash NOI growth of 3.5%.
Let me provide some details around our major segments. Starting with life science, we had another exceptional quarter with cash NOI growing 6.1%. Sales were driven by a favorable leasing environment producing strong client demand and mark-to-market opportunities. Year-to-date we executed over 1 million square feet of leases, including 600,000 square feet in the second quarter and our lease renewals exhibited a positive 11% mark-to-market.
Turning to medical office, second quarter cash NOI grew 3.8% driven by contractual rent escalators, increased occupancy, strong retention rate of 80%. Additionally, our Medical City Dallas campus experienced another quarter of strong growth contributing approximately 80 basis points, much higher than anticipated ad rents.
For housing, triple-net performance for the quarter exceeded expectations with cash NOI growing 3.1%. Shop declined by 2.3% with [Technical Difficulty] growing positive 0.3% and transitions down 10.8%. Note that this quarter we had approximately $500,000 of one-time positive items in insurance [Technical Difficulty] taxes, which benefited our results.
Also our same-store pool shrunk this quarter as we continue executing our strategic plan in senior housing. In particular certain non-core properties are now formerly held for sale and classified as such under GAAP accounting rules.
As a reminder, our shop same-store pool is small consisting of just 39 assets and $20 million of NOI in the second quarter. Out of all the recent transaction activity from our portfolio transformation, the vast majority of our highest quality senior housing real estate including Oakmont, Discovery, Sunrise, and most of Atria are not in our same-store pool today.
By 2021, we expect these high-quality assets and operators in our full year same-store pool, at which point our SPP results will be more representative of our underlying and completely transformed senior housing business.
Turning to the balance sheet, we had a very busy and productive quarter in the capital market. First [Technical Difficulty] the closing of our $2.75 billion bank facility listing of a $2.5 billion revolver and a new $250 million term loan. Over $4 billion in commitments, we successfully up-size the facility by $750 million [Technical Difficulty] improved our revolver pricing by five basis points, and we extended the revolver maturity by two years. We very much appreciate our banking syndicate for their continued support and commitment to HCP.
Second, we completed our first bond offering in nearly three and a half years, pleased with the execution and robust investor demand, allowing us to upsize to $1.3 billion split evenly between seven and 10 year notes.
[Technical Difficulty] interest rate across two tranches was 3% and 3.8%. Proceeds from the offering were used to repay $1.3 billion in debt, consisting of $800 million of our 2020 notes, $250 million of our 2022 notes, $250 million of our 2023 notes.
The blended [Technical Difficulty] with the bond issuance and concurrent debt repayment, we extended our weighted average debt maturity to six and a half years [Technical Difficulty] all bonds insuring until 2022 and we significantly improved our debt maturity profile.
Third, we raised an additional $496 million of equity under our ATM program includes roughly $305 million under forward contract. [Technical difficulty] we have 23 million shares remaining under forward contracts or roughly $680 million in net proceeds.
Portion of that equity will be used to fund our recently announced acquisitions which Scott will discuss shortly. Remainder of the proceeds we plan to settle over the next six to 12 months to fund our robust acquisition pipeline and development platform.
Lastly, we ended the quarter with $2 billion of availability under our line of credit and net debt to EBITDA of 5.7 times, which is in line with our targeted range.
Turning now to our guidance, we are increasing the midpoint of our FFO as adjusted guidance to $1.75 per share from a $1.73. In addition, we are increasing the midpoint of our blended SPP guidance to 2.5% from 2%. The update to our guidance ranges are driven primarily by two items. First, we achieved a significantly lower interest rate on our bond issuance. And second, the Life Science and Medical Office segments are performing above our initial expectations.
Let me touch on a few transactional items that were part of our original guidance. First on dispositions, [Technical Difficulty] currently tracking approximately $700 million at a blended cash yield in the mid to high seven. [Technical Difficulty] corporates the prime care disposition, which was not anticipated in our original guidance.
[Technical Difficulty] acquisition, we have already completed $1.5 billion year-to-date [Technical Difficulty] substantially higher than the $900 million we originally anticipated.
[Technical Difficulty] future unidentified acquisitions, but we do have a strong pipeline that we intend to fund with our remaining equity forwards.
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Scott.
Thank you, Pete. We capitalized on a favorable cost of capital to acquire $1.5 billion of high-quality real estate year-to-date, already surpassing our full year guidance. Relationships are driving the deal flow and the pipeline remains strong.
[Technical Difficulty] through our relationship with King Street, we acquired a core property Life Science campus with 280,000 square feet known as Hartwell Innovation Campus in the Boston suburb of Lexington.
The campus is 100% occupied with a seven year weighted average lease term. Purchase price was $228 million, which is a 5.25% cash cap rate, putting straight-line rent and mark-to-market the GAAP cap rate is in the mid sixes. The location of the campus is compelling, it's adjacent to linking labs, few million square foot government-funded research park affiliated with MIT.
We've seen the benefit of local scale time and again in South San Francisco and San Diego. We are quickly approaching critical mass in Boston as well with three distinct life science campuses with an aggregate 1 million square feet. Having a bigger chess board with multiple price points and suite sizes allows us to meet tenant demand for space as their businesses evolve.
Debt flexibility is important because change is a constant in life science often driven by capital raises, clinical trial outcomes and M&A activity. We intend to continue building scale in our three core life science markets. Speaking of critical mass, in July, we acquired a 56,000 square foot office building in the Sorrento Mesa submarket of San Diego for $69 million. The property is located on our Directors Place campus, where we own two successful life science buildings and a development parcel.
We'll convert the acquired office building to lab upon expiration of the in-place leases in 2020 and expect to achieve a stabilized return on cost of roughly 8%. Overtime, this will become a 350,000 square foot Class A life science campus.
[Technical Difficulty] in June, we closed the $245 million Sierra Point Towers acquisition at a 6% stabilized cash cap rate. This acquisition has more than 400,000 square feet to are now 1 million square foot Class A campus at the shore in South San Francisco. At the center for life science on the West Coast and where we enjoy number one market share.
In the second quarter, we delivered Phase III of The Cove in South San Francisco, all 324,000 square feet is fully leased with a 10 year weighted average lease term, and 3.5% rent escalators. Phase III produces $24 million of stabilized NOI equates to a 9.5% return on cost and underscores the significant value created given the fair market cap rate would likely be in the mid fours.
We also expanded our relationship with HCA, the country's premier for-profit health system. [Technical Difficulty] reached agreement to develop a $12 million medical office building on the campus of Oak Hill Hospital in the Tampa MSA. HCA will lease 55% of the building. We expect to stabilized yield in the high sixes. [Technical Difficulty] now have five new developments with aggregate spend of $110 million under way with HCA.
Going forward, we see a visible pipeline of $75 million to $100 million of new MOB development per year with HCA. We also acquired a medical office building in Kansas City for $15 million, which is a 5.5% year one cash cap rate. Properties located on the campus of HCA's Midwest Menorah Medical Center, the acquisition augments our local footprint, as we already own an existing 60,000 square foot MOB on the same hospital campus. Both MOBs are 100% occupied.
Senior housing we're excited to announce an expansion of our close relationship with Oakmont a premier California-based developer and operator. The five asset portfolio is located in Huntington Beach, Los Angeles, San Jose and San Francisco, one of the most affluent and [Technical Difficulty] markets in the country. Properties are less than three years old on average and should be well positioned in their local markets for years to come.
The acquisition closed in July for $284 million in the year-one cash cap rate is in the mid fives. We issued downREIT to the seller at $32 per share or just over 10% of the total consideration, we assume $112 million of secured debt. We also negotiated a highly incentivized management agreement, so this partnership has strong alignment. Year-to-date, we closed $400 million of acquisitions with Oakmont, all recently built high quality properties in California.
Moving to asset management, in particular senior housing, for the past year we created a strategic plan for every one our senior housing properties. The data driven analysis to assess the performance outlook for each asset including supply and demand, location analysis, competitive positioning and quality of physical plan. Each property was categorized as either core, redevelop or sell. We created a strategic plan for each operating partner as well, each partner being categorized as either grow, maintain, reduce or exit.
The data and analysis was design and evaluated by a team of the track record of building a senior housing business of significant and lasting value. We tend to do even better this time at HCP. Currently, we've been building the senior housing team and platform to execute the plan. The actions you're now seeing from HCP quarter-after-quarter represent exactly that, the execution of an intentional and long-term strategic plan.
For example, in the second quarter, we renewed the ten property master lease with agents senior living for an additional ten years. The annual rent is roughly $90 million, which will escalate at 3% per year. These are high-quality, high performing core properties in Seattle, the Bay Area and Southern California.
We continue to tackle key challenges head-on. In the second quarter we amended our leases with HRA. We'll sell 6 non-core assets. We combined the remaining 8 core properties in a single master lease that will mature in 2028. We obtained improved covenants and lease guarantees and will provide $10 million of capital to improve the portfolio which will be rentalized at 6.5%.
Capital projects will be struck operations for the next year or two after which performance should improve from the current level, which is roughly 1.1 times rent cover before management team. We also signed a definitive agreement to exit our non-core 13 property portfolio with Prime Care.
Historically, we accounted for the investment as a direct financing lease because Prime Care has a bargain purchase option. Sale is expected to close in September for a negotiated price of $274 million. Cash yield on sale is 8.2%, which reflects the asset quality and the bargain purchase option. This was an important cleanup transaction for HCP.
Now stepping back for a moment before we turn to Q&A. The second quarter was highly productive accelerated our differentiated strategy by acquiring core real estate at accretive yields. We also deepened our relationships with industry leading partners, including HCA, Oakmont and King Street. These investments position us to build on our strong year-to-date operating results.
With that, operator, let's take our first question.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Nick Yulico from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Hello, everyone. I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about the latest King Street partnership acquisition you did. What is sort of rent growth been like in that market and maybe you could also just frame out, I mean this is now yet another meaningful deal you've done with them. I know King Street owns still more real estate in that market that could transact with you over time. So how should we just think about that future opportunity as well and timing on some of those deals?
Hey, Nick. It's Pete here. Hope all is well. So we're excited to add the Hartwell portfolio into our portfolio in Boston. One of the things that is quite important for us and Scott mentioned this in his prepared remarks is getting to scale within the Boston market. We've had success in San Francisco, as well as in San Diego moving tenants around and with this latest acquisition and inclusive of the 75 Hayden development, we're actually now at about 1 million square feet which we think is quite important.
The campuses we own, we have one in West Cambridge and now two in Lexington, they're actually quite synergistic. We like this market a lot or both those markets a lot. Rental rate growth has been strong within West Cambridge is now up into the 70s with new leases and now within the Lexington market we're probably in the '60s, mid-60s actually at this point, and that compares to being in the mid '50s when we bought that campus.
So a lot of really solid rental rate growth. And if you look at the overall vacancy within the Boston market, it's around 2%. So we like that a lot. We're happy to grow with King Street too. They've been a great partner. Perhaps there are other opportunities we can do in the future together as well, but I'm not going to comment on that at this point.
Okay. That's helpful. And then Scott in terms of addition -- I think in the last call you talked about additional seniors housing acquisitions that you had lined up. And I guess I'm just wondering was that fully accounted for by the new Oakmont deals or are there also some additional senior housing acquisitions in the works right now?
Yes, I'm sure we have a lot of opportunity, new senior housing, it's multiples of what we can reasonably do and capitalize the number of operators reaching out with high quality opportunities is really exceptional. So we're pretty pleased with sort of the market's reaction to HCP's strategy and approach to business.
So there's plenty of opportunity, I would say right now, it's more focused on recycling capital rather than exponential new growth in that segment. The portfolio this team inherited we didn't like the whole thing, so we've been actively remaking that business in every sense, and that includes a lot of asset sales. And you've seen that for two years now, there is more to come, and we'll be recycling those proceeds into assets that we think will help make HCP an outperformer over time in senior housing.
Okay. And then just my last question is on Brookdale, there is a shareholder proposal out there and Jay Flaherty your former CEO to the Board of Brookdale. And so I'm wondering if you guys joined that Board, how do you think that changes your relationship with Brookdale given a bit of a messy situation that happened for Jay leaving years ago?
Nick, it's Tom Herzog. Yeah, hard to say. Here's what I will tell you as we look at if the proxy contest Brookdale is an important value partner, we're in support of the recent initiatives for our enhancement of their care and their operations. We are monitoring it closely, but I really can't respond directly to that. I think it's really up to the shareholders of Brookdale and their Board to determine what's best around the optimal outcome for the Board. So that's probably all I can say on that topic at this point, Nick.
That's helpful, Tom. I guess just a follow-up there, I mean, is there -- what's the thinking of the company in your Board right now about doing something additional with Brookdale if that opportunity were to arise. What's the latest thought process there?
Well, I would say this, Cindy Byron Island, routine conversations on different opportunities that we can consider, and there are things we can do, but obviously would be very premature for me to get into any of those details, but that dialog is taking place and certainly would take place in the future as well. I think regardless of who is on that board. So stay tuned, but there is nothing imminent, but those are certainly things that we are considering in the future.
All right. Thank you, Tom.
You bet, Nick.
And our next question comes from Nick Joseph with Citi. Please go ahead.
Thanks. You've been active lowering leverage partly driven by issuing equity at attractive prices on a forward basis. When you put aside identified expected development spend, how much dry powder in terms of net acquisition do you currently have the ability to deal with that going above target leverage levels?
Yeah. Hey, Nick, it's Pete. We've talked about from a leverage perspective wanting to be in the high fives on the net debt to EBITDA basis, we're at 5.7, so we're essentially there at this point in time, it could go up a little bit. If you think about the equity forwards we have left, there are 23 million shares left and net proceeds of approximately $680 million for those 23 million shares, about $350 million to $400 million of that will be used for the acquisitions we announced today, Hartwell, Oakmont, Directors Place, that leaves about $300 million for the pipeline, which we're not getting into specifics today and we typically think about debt to equity on acquisitions as 65:35, so we have probably around $500 million of purchasing power. I don't know, Tom, if you want to add anything to that.
Yeah, no, I think, Pete, that's all exactly correct, as I would have said it. Nick, I probably would add a couple of things. Just as you look at the magnitude of the transactions that we've been doing really for the last three years, and again over the last couple of quarters, every now and then we got to step back and see where we're at, internally we do it every week, but for more, you said I talked last quarter about our portfolio mix wanted it to be 35% to 40% senior housing and the balance split between life science and MOBs. We're currently in life science on NOI basis at 25%, medical offices 31%, and senior housing 37%.
If we looked at the 2019, growth from acquisitions developments net of dispositions that growth is expected to be on a net basis, net of dispositions, about $2 billion. What's interesting is when you start adding up all the pieces, which are a lot of moving pieces, as you know, life science constitutes roughly $1.4 billion of growth. Senior housing on a net basis is $400 million, it's acquisitions of 900 million, less dispositions of 500 million, but there is a very solid pipeline behind it as Scott had just mentioned.
MOBs, we've been a little bit more careful on, we're being quite discerning on which assets and portfolios that we consider as they come to market based on quality and how we like to look at it, that's been about $100 million. Now it's interesting that we have raised enough capital to handle all the investment volume that I've just described.
And as we look forward to 2020 and 2021 just to take a bigger picture for just a moment, including development deliveries, and this is interesting, life science that side of our business will grow from around 7.5 million square feet to something over 10 million square feet, based on our existing pipeline and what's already in place. Senior housing, we'd see pretty good sized growth with the embedded opportunities with Oakmont, Discovery and others, as we've previously discussed.
MOBs, we've got the HCA program, we've got the redevelopment. They were a little light on opportunities for growth, but working hard to find other ways to grow that business. So I just wanted to round out for you, as you think about the equities that we've been raising and it's been pretty sizable, so it's a 1.3 billion since last November in aggregate total and it's allowed us to have some pretty strategic expansion, which has been part of our strategic plan. So I thought, maybe that background might be helpful for you.
That's very helpful. Thank you. Maybe on the flip side, just the asset recycling. I mean, how much more is left, what you would consider non-core and I recognize every year, there's probably some level of dispositions, but how much more backlog is there of stuff you'd like to sell?
I would categorize it as normal course, clean for the most part in medical office and life science and that's certainly true in senior housing as well. But within the senior housing segment, I think, we'd also look to opportunistically sell assets if we thought the value proposition was favorable, if we had an attractive use of the capital. So that's probably the one distinction I would draw between the three segments.
Thanks.
Thanks, Nick.
And our next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you. And Sorrento Mesa, I realized it's not a very big investment today, but what's the cost to convert the office into lab space?
We bought the asset for about $15 million, it's just under 60,000 square feet. It will cost about $15 million to fully redevelop into Class A lab space.
And Scott, you mentioned the overall -- this campus will become like a 350,000 square foot campus, which presumably includes your existing two buildings. But how big is the development that land parcel that you have, as far as square footage.
Yeah. Hey, John. Its 150,000 square feet, it's a development parcel within this, so the rest is the three assets including this new acquisition. And we've actually had some success redeveloping assets from office into lab, it's a good opportunity within the San Diego market. We did it with a Qualcomm building, that's currently in redevelopment, and actually one of the assets is now 100% pre-leased. And we're getting really nice returns on those conversions, so it's not the first time we've done this and we certainly had success.
Hey John, I would add. It's Herzog, again. As we look at that acquisition, you pointed out, it's small, but it was very strategic. We're sitting with a nice campus with an asset sitting in the middle of it. That was important for us to pick up to capture the entire campus and you know how important it is to control those campuses, as we're working with biotechs that are seeking to grow and have the opportunity to move tenants between properties. So that was beyond the small dollar amount. That was the strategic element of that acquisition?
Sticking to the strategic theme, the Hartwell acquisition that you've done, looks like it's good quality, but you also mentioned 100% leased, seven year WAO. Is there any near-term upside to see either cash NOI or earnings, are there any near-term explorations or annual escalators that you talking about?
Yes. So annual escalators in the Boston market are fixed, essentially just 3%. We do a little bit better in San Francisco. It's a seven year weighted average lease term. There are a couple of leases within that that do mature in the next few years on average. We think the rents are about 10% to 15% below market there, getting closer to 15% and to 10% over the last couple of months. So there's certainly a little bit of a near-term benefit, because not every lease is seven years. There's a couple that are close to ten years and a few that are in the two to three-year range.
Thank you.
Thank you.
And our next question comes from Jordan Sadler with KeyBanc Capital Market. Please go ahead.
Hi. Just curious about sort of the appetite for the MOBs. I think, Tom Herzog you went through it a little bit, that you've been a little bit lighter there. But are you seeing the opportunity to achieve competitive IRRs versus your other opportunities in that space on stabilized assets, or do you think you're unlikely to be an investor of size there, given sort of just, the better return opportunities in Life Sci and or senior housing?
Jordan, it's Herzog. When we assess the MOB opportunities that have come to market. Some of those bring in some pretty nice yield, you got to be careful of what's off-campus that's not anchored the quality of the health systems that their near. When you get down to MOB properties that are of the quality that we want to have in our portfolio, they're commanding much lower cap rates.
And then one assess is the IRR on those investments, we have found them to be lower than what has hit our threshold at times. So, we've been more in the camp of developing with HCA redeveloping some of our irreplaceable locations and get into some good returns on that. But by no means, are we locking ourselves out from wanting to make acquisitions and MOBs, because we would like to continue to grow that business.
On an NOI basis, it's actually a pretty decent percentage of our portfolio. So, it's already a big business, but we will consider those opportunities as they as present themselves, but we're not going to move down the quality curve. Scott or Tom Klaritch, anything you guys would add?
We've seen several portfolios to-date, so there's been plenty of activity, just nothing that are risk return thresholds, but there continues to be opportunity on our desk today. So we would like to grow that business. It just has to be the appropriate cap rate for the quarter.
Okay. That's fair. And then, I guess on the other side, what -- Pete, could you elaborate on what was classified and moved into the held for sale this quarter?
Yeah. Hey, Jordan, happy to talk about that. There is a good table in our supplemental on page 16, which goes through the sequential changes in our same-store pool. We did have 27 assets go into held for sale this quarter. 16 of them were in SPP, and it's shop, senior housing triple-net as well as some MOBs that came out of the same-store pool and make up that 27 assets there.
I think it's important to just know, we're pretty large company, and we do dispose of assets and we've done a lot of capital recycling and assets will make their way into held for sale as the sales processes go along. At this point in time, as Scott mentioned, we've essentially identified within senior housing every asset we want to hold sell or redevelop. And at this point for the ones that we're looking to sell, we're pretty far along in the sales process, and we've got some assets actually under PSA at this point in time as well.
So, all these assets essentially triggered held for sale within the GAAP criteria this quarter, so they went into to held for sale bucket. There obviously was an impairment associated with that as well within these assets. Certainly the assets had impairments. GAAP makes you book those impairments when they go into held for sale. Some of them will ultimately have gains, but you can't book those until the sale actually is completed.
So relative to the balance sheet figure in the quarter, it's going to be a bit bigger in terms of the size of that sale in the third quarter or fourth quarter?
Now we marked all those assets to fair value.
I guess, I'm just reflecting on the gains, the potential gains that you can book.
Yeah. We would book those later on in the year as the sales are completed, which would happen between now and the next 12 months. We think many of these sales will happen this year, but some may actually drag into the beginning of next year?
Yeah. Jordan your point is that you have to book the impairments immediately, but if there are gains on some of those assets, you have to wait until you complete the sale and that's correct.
Yeah. I was just curious how big the sale -- like what the dollar volume of the sale looks like to say it plainly?
It's a 174 million, that's what we've marked those held for sale assets on our balance sheet. So, it's a relatively small dollar amount given that it's these properties.
It could be some upside for those that have gains. So, it's something greater than 117.
Okay. That's what I was getting at. Okay. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.
Yeah. Thank you.
Our next question will come from Jonathan Hughes with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Hey. Good morning, out there.
Hey, Jonathan.
On the newly disclosed Oakmont purchases, is there a lease up component there? I think it's on the press release. They're less than two years old. And then could you also maybe provide any other color there in terms of unit mix, supply exposure and Oakmont's operating strategy?
I can take that one, Jonathan. Yeah, the average age is less than two years, and two of the properties were recently opened. In California, it's harder to build like the big campuses that we just acquired with say Discovery in Florida, where at 300 unit continuum of care campuses are possible, not easy, but possible.
In California, they tend to be more in the 60 to 80 unit range, especially in the markets where Oakmont like Huntington Beach, or San Jose, or San Francisco which is so hard to find adequate land. So they tend to be smaller properties in Oakmont sells their properties faster than anyone I've ever seen. So there really isn't actual lease-up period.
These were almost 70% pre-leased the day they open. So there isn't much of a gap between the stabilized cap rate in year one cap rate. So we think Oakmont is a fantastic operator. We think California is a good place to do business long-term, and we'd like to do more with Oakmont going forward, very active high quality developer and operator. So we'd like to continue growing that.
Was that a marketed deal and if so maybe who were the owners, is it Oakmont or was it private equity, some other long-term institutional capital source?
Oakmont is it, sort of, owner developer operator, so at times they'll have friends and family capital, but otherwise it's really the principles and I'm not aware of a widely marketed process. I know we have direct interactions with the principal. So I'll leave it at that.
Okay. That's helpful and then just one more from me, kind of related, but a peer of yours just announced an exclusive development agreement with Discovery who is also a senior housing operating partner of HCP. I know you have the programmatic development agreement with HCA for MOBs, but have you explored partnering with the operators for future senior housing developments on an exclusive basis. I mean, lot like Oakmont?
Yeah. I mean with Discovery, we actually do have development projects that we do have rights. We have -- when we closed that $445 million deal, it had four options, one which is already closed and other will close next week and then we have rights on the other two, we get a nice net debt slice at a very nice return for 15% of the stack and then the 6.25% purchase option. So we really like that arrangement and there’s more that we'll do with Discovery over time, so. And Scott, do you have others that you want to respond to
No, I would just say programmatically, the team here has a lot of experience, putting those types of structures in place. So that's for sure is how we would intend to grow the senior housing businesses or through relationships, direct discussions, at times there'll be stabilized acquisitions and at times there will be participation on the front end of the project, we'll be flexible.
The most important thing for us is to be in markets that we think are strong long-term real estate locations and to partner with operators that we feel are going to do high quality job and be trusted partners for us for a long time.
So how we get to the final stage of owning a Class A asset, we can be flexible, it's more the real estate and the operator that drives everything that we're doing, whether it's acquisition, development, redevelopment, it comes back to a very, very disciplined and consistent team and everybody here knows exactly what we're going to do to really get there as fast as the capital markets permit. And right now they've been pretty accommodate, so we've been able to accelerate that strategic plan, which is exciting.
That's helpful, thanks for the time.
Thanks, Jon.
And our next question comes from Chad Vanacore with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Since we're getting late in the call, I'm going to keep it to a couple of technical questions. So on guidance run rate is $0.44 this quarter that equates to about $0.76, that’s on the higher end of your current guidance. What could drive that FFO lower in the second half, is that purely dispositions or does that contemplate some additional downside and say shop?
Hey I'll take that here, Chad. So you're right that the annualized number is $1.76, but with the prime care sale and a few other of the dispositions, we do see about $0.01 of dilution in the second half of the year from the capital recycling. So that's what gets you back to the $1.75.
All right. And then just thinking about organic growth, you raised guidance to 2% to 3%, but that's still looks conservative because first half year you were running above the high end of that range, because this is just conservatism or should we expect some moderation in the second in some sub-segments.
Yeah, hey it's Pete again here. So couple of things within each one of the segments, MOBs did benefit from some outsized add rents in the first half of the year, life sciences, I have mentioned this a few times. There are a few vacates in the second half of the year as well, the good news is, most of those are leased up at this point in time, but the leases don't start until 2020.
And then senior housing triple-net, we do have some add rents within the triple-net Sunrise, CCRCs, that we think could impact us in the second half of the year, we had a pretty good fourth quarter last year for those Sunrise add rent. So, perhaps some conservatism embedded within the guidance, but more to come as the year progresses.
All right. That's great, thanks.
Thanks Chad.
And our next question comes from Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Can you touch on your comments earlier about your ability to grow in the Boston market, I mean how competitive is that market and what are some of the things that HCP can do to continue that growth?
Yeah, it's pretty competitive Mike, on all transactions that we're looking at now, there are a lot more bidders for life science assets, especially in Boston, you've got core funds now looking at lab assets and that's a bit of a change from five to 10 years ago. So it's quite competitive that's one of the reasons why we really enjoyed the King Street relationship, because it's allowed us to grow without having to compete in full auction processes.
We certainly are looking at more assets in that market. We feel really good about the assets that we've bought and the price point that we've been able to achieve, as it feels like pricing as well as cap rates as well as rental rates are all moving in the right direction. So we feel like, we're well in the money on the purchases that we've made and we'll continue to look within that market, but as you point out, it is quite competitive. So relationships are as important now as they've ever been.
Okay. And then should we expect the deal to be kind of these smaller type transactions that you're able to get done in the Boston area?
You know, hard to comment on exactly what all the transactions will look like, because they will vary, I mean, we've looked at smaller deals. We've looked at larger deals. So I would say it could be a mix. I don't know, Tom, if you want to add anything to that?
Pete, I would put it this way, it could be a mix, but it will most certainly be strategic in how we go at it. So probably not a lot more we want to say right now, but hopefully, next quarter, the quarter after we have some more to talk about.
Okay. And then just last question, can you talk a little bit about the South San Francisco market, I know you guys have a pretty big share there, have a few developments currently under construction. What do you have to see, I guess, the break ground on some of the additional land sites, I mean, do you have to see leasing activity at the Sierra Point projects or is there anything else that you kind of looking out for?
Yeah, good question, Mike. South San Francisco is an incredibly important market to HCP, and we're the dominant landlord within that market. Fundamentals are very strong. The vacancy rate is under 2% and for our major project, for Cove we're 100% leased right now, Phase 1 of the shore a 100% pre-leased, and that was really the catalyst for accelerating Phases 2 and 3 of the shore. We'd like to see some leasing progress on Phase 2 before we would consider accelerating some more developments within our land bank within that market. Phase 2 is quite big as well inclusive of Phase 3 also.
Nothing to report on leasing right now but certainly lots of interest and also importantly all the developments we think within that market will do quite well. In fact, when you think about the 2.5 million square feet that's being developed currently, over 60% is actually committed at this point in time. A lot of those projects don't deliver for 1.5 years to 2 years inclusive of our shore Phase 2. So while there still is a lot of construction going on, there is a lot of leasing happening at the same time too.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Thank you.
And our next question comes from Rich Anderson with SMBC. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning out there and I'm suggesting we move to alphabetical list for the Q&A queue. So we've mentioned earlier on, Pete, 20 million of NOI in the same-store pool for Shop small potato relative to the size your company. But that would grow as you bring in non-same store assets into the pool. On top of that, you're transitioned assets I assume will be improving along the way.
So come 2021 when you kind of have the kind of a fuller representation of same-store in your Shop portfolio, I mean, could this be something that really builds like from a few different directions both from the introduction of new non-same-store into the pool and the transitions and could we be looking at like an outsized growth profile at least in the short-term as that all happens perhaps on top of one another.
Hey, Rich, it's Scott. I'll try to take that. Today, our senior housing same-store pool is roughly 70% triple-net and 30% Shop, two years from now that probably is reverse as we exit certain triple-net can hurt others to RIDEA and then of course the acquisitions that we've been doing. And yeah, our expectation is 2021 and beyond a combination of better industry fundamentals, better management contracts, better operating partners, better real estate. There's a long list of things that we've been working on to position that business, so that it's going to be successful.
It's hard to predict too far into the future in senior housing, just given the uncertainty about continued new supply and labor cost. But our key metric is -- are we doing better or worse in the industry, and historically we did worse. And we think we're building the business that's going to do better. And hopefully, substantially better, and we think 2021 from an SPP standpoint is probably the first time that really starts to come through, just because of the composition of the pool -- 2020 is still going to be kind of, it's not going to include a lot of that was really high quality assets.
What's the NOI number in 2021 versus the $20 million again in the in the same-store pool?
Yeah, Rich, I'd have to get back to you with the specific number, but if it's 70-30 today, we think it's going to be 30-70 roughly two years from now.
Right, okay. And then second question maybe for anyone you and others are stepping up the activity from an external growth standpoint, perhaps capital markets are behind that and just general opening up of the transaction markets, but what would you say to the risk that this is all happening in the 10th year of the expansion of this economy, and what's the risk that this is just all just poorly timed and a year from now we'll look back and say I wish we were perhaps not as aggressive on the external growth, but I'm just trying to play little devil's advocate with all the activity that's happening around us.
Yeah, Rich. I'll take that one. The way we look at it, what's critical is to have a very clear and consistent and disciplined strategy to have a balance sheet that's strong, that will weather the cycles to manage our equity transactions for only issuing at a premium to NAV to do deals that are either strategic, and or accretive and that it is literally impossible to predict where markets are going or where the economy is going and where interest rates are going, we're in the business to be in the business and to own a portfolio that will sustain the cycles.
And as we look at the environment and where it would put us, if there was a downturn and there will most definitely be a downturn over time and just none of us know when it will be, the important thing is that we have set our business software or development pipeline and acquisitions are well funded, and we know where the money is coming from, the balance sheet is strong. We're in a more defensive sector to begin with.
We've been careful to have private pay assets with good partners, good operators, we try to keep the real estate of high quality, and we think that through the cycles that we're going to have a great outcome. So the timing of that is not something that, I think we can do, but the disciplined capital allocation nature is something that I think we must do and that's how we approach that.
Okay. Thanks very much.
Thanks, Rich.
And our next question comes from Vikram Malhotra with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking the question. So a couple of your peers now have come out highlighting they think next year is a turn in terms of senior housing occupancy at least from a top line perspective, and one has come out giving fairly aggressive kind of 4% to 6% growth numbers over a five year period. Scott said, I'm just wondering, I know you said 21 is sort of the year where we'll start to see the combined power of the shop portfolio, but just based on the HCP portfolio today. Would you sort of say a top line turn is likely next year? And would you agree sort of with – with maybe a longer-term view of mid-single digit same-store NOI growth?
Hey, Vikram. Yeah. On the short-term outlook it really is local market specific. So each portfolio is a little bit different. We've evaluated our own portfolio in every imaginable analytical way to try to predict just supply and demand fundamentals and to try to pick a specific quarter would be false precision. We do think that we're going to start heading in the right direction from a supply demand standpoint, whether it's late in 2020, or early to mid 2021 target predict. But it's somewhere in that range would be our best guess just empirically using data, but supplemented with a heck of a lot of discussions with operating companies.
Our own team sort of on the ground, just assessment to augment all the data that we look like, that's kind of our best guess, but understanding that in any local market they are winners and losers. That's particularly true in senior housing, where the dispersion and performance is pretty wide, regardless of what point in the cycle we're at because there are groups today that are outperforming and they'll continue to outperform in the up cycle as well. So that's been a big part of our strategic plan is to position ourselves to be one of the outperformers in each of the local market. So that's kind of our short-term view. And our longer-term view, I'd probably just get back to the comment I made to Rich is that, it's very hard to predict supply and demand fundamentals three, four, five years from now. The labor market is really important part of that assessment and that's difficult to predict.
Supply has been coming down, four, five, six quarters in a row. That's obviously very helpful. If that continues, I think you can make a pretty bullish case over the next five years that the population growth is significant and it's getting better. The penetration rate continues to get better. So, all of those things suggest that over the next five years, supply and demand fundamentals should be quite good. But we do continue to think that it's more back-end weighted than front-end weighted on that five year outlook.
Okay. That's helpful and then just last question on life sciences. I remember you highlighted that there is some move-outs occupancy is sort of over the last maybe few quarters trend it down from like the 96 to the low 95 range. Can you remind us or maybe give us a sense of how you expect that to trend near term and then potentially sort of looking into 2020 just given sort of the fact that you've produced now 6% same-store NOI growth for two quarters, just look -- getting trying to get a sense of the trajectory over the back half and into '20. And Just to finish on life science, the expirations pickup in '21. I know there is a ways out, but any sense of -- remind us of any major move-outs in '21?
Yeah. Couple of questions in there, so I'll take them one at a time. Our 6.5% year-to-date growth, there are few things that factor into that, but think about the three most important occupancy is up 40 basis points, escalators within life sciences are around 3.2%, which is actually quite strong, and then the mark-to-market on the leases that we've achieved year-to-date is actually around positive 15%. So that's really what's driving the 6.5%.
You think about the 400,000 square feet that we have left, that is maturing in the second half of the year. We've actually got about 60% of that now leased up as well as some good prospects on the remaining portion and you will always have from a little bit of lease-up that you need to do in any large portfolio. So the reason why occupancy will tick down a little bit maybe to the 95% range. I said before, is really because of those leases that will vacate this year, but ultimately beginning of next year, you will see some leases in place and actually some really good mark to markets as well. So I don't see occupancy dipping really below the 95% range. Again too soon to come out with specifics for next year, but I'm just telling you the overall trends that we're seeing.
And then from an exploration standpoint in 2021, there is a pretty large number there. Amgen is one of the larger expirations, but that is December 31st, 2021, too soon to comment on that at this point in time. I will point out that the campus they're in is right next to the Cove, so it's literally main and main from a location standpoint within South San Francisco, but while it has a big number in 2021, you can almost look at it as a 2022 exploration given that it doesn't happen until the last day of the year.
Okay. Great. Thanks guys.
Thanks Vikram.
And our next question comes from Daniel Bernstein with Capital One. Please go ahead.
I'll concur with Rich's alphabetical order. I just a quick question here, I'm trying to reconcile some of the drop in the NIC MAP starts and supply growth versus all the -- a very aggressive. It seems like or significantly high volume of acquisitions that are out there in the senior housing side, both on the dispositions from you and your peers and what you and your peers are buying. Is there any data points or what you've seen anecdotally, where lending has dried up or reduced for construction starts within the senior housing space. And have you received any inquiries from -- increased inquiries from operators to say fund development, something that anecdotally would say that starts will continue to stay low and supply will continue to come down?
Hey Dan, it's Scott, I'll take that. I wouldn't say there has been any material change in the lending environment. That market remains relatively open. Maybe the margin the LTVs are a bit lower or the recourse is a bit higher, but not enough to materially change the amount of new supply, I think the bigger factor is just the cost of construction has gone up quite significantly. I think about the Discovery portfolio that we acquired, were roughly $350,000 to $360,000 a unit, and we're building four additional properties with Discovery in those same markets. In fact, one is going to close on Monday next week in the -- all in cost to build that is almost $380,000 a unit.
So cost continue to escalate and I think that's probably the biggest factor that is leading to at least a modest slowdown in new suppliers that ultimately the developers and owners need a return on cost and the operating fundamentals today maybe aren't quite as favorable as they were four and five years ago when developers were putting new projects under construction. So I think from both the numerator and the denominator, the return on development has continued to come down, and certain project still pencil out for sure, but less than penciled out four, five years ago.
That's good color there. That's all I really had. Thank you.
Thanks Dan. We have two people remaining in the queue. Lukas, go ahead.
Are you still on track to sell the remaining interest in the U.K. JV, what's the update there?
Yeah, this is Scott. So, I'll take that. So our intention remains to exit the UK, we have a 49% interest, roughly $100 million as equity is still outstanding. Our partner who owns 51% is in active discussions with a number of different potential buyers. So their intention remains to take us out and our intention remains to exit. So we're well aligned there.
The uncertainty over Brexit hasn't helped, perhaps as soon as the new October 31 deadline, there is more certainty, but in the interim that has created some uncertainty among the buyer pool that may or may not be insurmountable. We still feel good about exiting that investment. We think the value has held up in the interim. We have good relationship with our partner, we're earning a nice yield. So sooner than later we'll exit that 49%, the exact timing, we'll keep you posted.
And then the net balance of the thing is about 100 million, so it's not a big deal for us at this point, one way or another. We'll work through them.
All right. And I know it's tiny, but coverage on the HRA assets still look tight after the changes there. How do you generally think about selling coverage during negotiations like that?
Yeah, the primary goal there was to right size the portfolio was 14 assets and neither HRA nor HCP wanted to own or operate all 14 assets. So we're going to sell 6. And the 8 that we're left with are core assets for HRA, they're in their home state of Florida and they think they have upside. The buildings are 20 years old, so we're going to put some capital into the real estate.
So, hopefully improved performance and hopefully that combined with improved industry fundamentals allows that portfolio to be a sustainable long-term metal stream. We now have a 10-year master lease. We also have significantly improved guarantees of covenants.
So that certainly played a role in our thinking. And then otherwise, it's just a trade-off between the earnings and the rent cover and we thought this was the appropriate balance given the money that's going into this portfolio as well as the improved guarantor.
Great, thank you.
Yeah, thanks Lukas.
And our next question is Michael Mueller with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, thanks for taking the question. This is Sarah on for Mike. So on the land bank, I see that's heavily skewed to California, should we expect the balance out more with Boston over the next few years.
We had a hard time hearing that. Could you repeat that please.
So, just a quick one on the land bank, I see that's heavily skewed to California, should we expect to see that move more toward Boston over the next couple of years.
Yeah, it's case by case specific as we look at acquisitions, but certainly within Boston, we have the 101 Cambridge Park Drive deal, but at this point we're still working through entitlements, so you'll notice, we don't have square footages in there yet until we're through with the entitlement phase, although we feel quite good about getting through that phase.
The others are really some of its legacy from Slough, some of the land that just came with that acquisition, which was over a decade ago. But as we've looked within Boston two of the acquisitions have had land components to it and it's something we'll continue to look at as we go forward.
Thanks.
Thank you.
And this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Tom Herzog for any closing remarks.
Thank you, operator. And thank you all for joining our call today and your continued interest in HCP and we'll catch you'll soon. Thank you.
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect your lines this time and have a good day.