Fjordkraft Holding ASA

F:1ZK

Earnings Call Transcript 2021-Q1

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Fjordkraft's First Quarter 2021 Results Presentation. My name is Morten Opdal, Investor Relations at Fjordkraft, and I will be guiding you through today's presentation.

Due to the current pandemic, this event is a webcast-only. However, we will conduct the Q&A section at the end of the presentation. Due to the delay in the broadcast, we encourage you to submit your questions during the presentation.

The results will be presented by our CEO, Rolf Barmen; and our CFO, Ole Langenes, and we are starting also with Mr. Barmen.

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Thank you, Morten. Hello, everyone. I start off. And please, let's go to Page 3 and look at the highlights of this quarter. Although this has been a tough first quarter, particularly for Consumer segment due to market dynamics, COVID-19 and negative media attention, the Fjordkraft operations are doing well, and we are improving in several business areas. I'll come back to that later, but as usual, allow me to start with the market development.

The first quarter has been a quarter with great volatility in the electricity market. At the start of the quarter, the Norwegian area prices varied between NOK 24 and NOK 27 per kilowatt hour. On the 8th of January, 4 out of 5 area prices in Norway were priced at NOK 80 per kilowatt hour, a rapid and significant increase driven by cold and dry weather. The volatility continued into February, with prices even passing NOK 100 (sic) [ NOK 1 ] per kilowatt hour in certain areas. When prices increase with such magnitude over a short period of time, this puts pressure on the group's margins, which is the main driver for the 9% year-on-year decrease in EBIT adjusted. Net revenue adjusted increased by 6% year-on-year and was driven by M&A growth. In 2020, first quarter was historically strong quarter with favorable market dynamics and represents a very strong comparable.

The number of deliveries in the Consumer and Business segment decreased by 17,251 in the quarter. There was a negative one-off effect about 10,900 deliveries from the Innlandskraft transaction, primarily due to stop of sales activities and the termination of the Eidsiva brand. In a high elspot price sentiment, the customer churn increases. Normally, we can win new customers through our physical distribution. However, most of our physical distribution has been shut down due to the COVID-19 this quarter. So we expect the growth in the Consumer segment once the COVID restrictions are lifted.

Extended Alliance grew by 2,908 deliveries in the quarter. Number of mobile subscribers grew by 2,280, while number of deliveries in the Nordics segment decreased by 3,466. The latter is related to the phaseout of tender customers with low profitability, and we experienced a growth in our strategic Customer segments in both Sweden and Finland during the quarter.

Please go to Page #5. COVID-19 and the related restrictions continue in Norway and the Nordics. The Norwegian government is planning that the next step in the reopening process will take place in the second part of May, dependent on a number of reported cases and the vaccination process. As touched upon earlier, the shutdown of sales channels will likely continue to affect sales figures and growth until the restrictions are lifted. Reduced activity following the governments' measures might also have a short-term negative impact on consumption in the Business segment and is also expected to increase voice activity in the Mobile segment, which increases cost of goods sold and reduces margins.

When it comes to the dialogue with the consumer authority, all the matters that have been discussed are now settled and closed. Certification process, Trygg Strømhandel, is progressing as scheduled, and the first electricity retailers are expected to be certified in the beginning of third quarter.

Please go to Page 6. As mentioned, the rapid increase in the elspot prices had a negative impact on our margins this quarter. We expect the volatility in the market to continue, which, in some cases, works at our advantage and sometimes is more challenging. The weather was cool in the quarter with 2 of the 3 months colder than both the normal and last year, January, especially so with 7.3 degrees colder than in 2020.

Page 7. Number of electricity deliveries in the Consumer segment decreased by 19,000 deliveries in the quarter with a negative one-off effect from the termination of the Eidsiva brand, shutdown of physical distribution and negative media attention driving the development. At the end of the first quarter, the segment comprised 736,000 deliveries, which represents a growth of 194,000 deliveries year-on-year. The volume sold was 3,735 gigawatt hour, which is a 60% increase from the first quarter 2020, driven by both M&A and 17% year-on-year increase in volume per delivery.

When it comes to our digital ecosystem, it is a great pleasure to announce that the use of our digital services is increasing. And we have more than 170,000 unique app users in the quarter, driven by new functionality continuously added to the app.

Page 8. Business segments comprised 109,000 electricity deliveries, which represents an increase of 2,000 deliveries in the quarter. The volume sold in the first quarter was 2,635 gigawatt hour, an increase of 44% compared to last year. The increase is driven by volume growth, both from M&A and from 5% year-on-year increase in volume per delivery. We experienced an increased interest for the local energy solutions in our concept Klimasmart as introduced on Capital Market Day, and we already have customers within agriculture and real estate. The Energy Management System, Målbart, has also received a warm welcome with several customers signed up.

Page 9. At the end of first quarter, the number of mobile subscribers was 135,000, a growth of 2,000 subscribers in the quarter. One announcement that I'm very happy to make is that we have decided to change from using eRate's service provider platform to their new MVNO platform. This means that we will handle certain extra tasks ourselves versus having Telenor during that for us and will -- and this will increase the profitability of the Mobile business. We expect the transition to start during the fourth quarter, and we will come back with more information on this over the next quarters. The transition is covered through a smaller amount of CapEx that does not affect our CapEx outlook.

Alliance volume in first quarter was 1,665 kilowatt hour, which is a 26% year-on-year increase, driven by the inclusion of volume from the Innlandskraft transaction, while Extended Alliance deliveries increased by 3,000 in the quarter, now comprising a total of 59,000 deliveries. The Nordic segment comprised 161,000 deliveries at quarter end, a decrease of 3,000, as said, driven by phaseout of tender customers with lower profitability. Volume sold was 1,000 gigawatt hour in the quarter. The segment is showing a nice development in the strategic Customer segments. We are very happy with the EBIT contribution for both Nordic and the New Growth Initiatives this quarter.

Next, we are moving over to the financials, which will be presented by Ole Langenes. You are welcome.

[Ole Langenes, executive]

Thank you, Rolf. First off, we'll look at the net revenue adjusted, Page 11. As Rolf said, we saw a significant and rapid increase in elspot prices in January, negatively affecting our margins in the first quarter. Still, our adjusted net revenue on group level increased 6% driven by M&A and took us up to NOK 510 million, obviously in first quarter 2021. First quarter of 2020 represents a very strong comparable, especially in the Consumer segment. On top of this, unfavorable market dynamics in the first quarter of 2021 negatively affected the segment's net revenue. Our other segments showed strong development in first quarter, including the Nordic segment that was established in Q4 2020.

I will come back to the segments later on. Looking at the last 12 months, adjusted net revenue on the right-hand side, we see a new all time high of NOK 1.57 billion. This represents an increase of 13% year-on-year, driven by M&A.

Moving on to the EBIT adjusted slide, Page 12. We see that adjusted EBIT decrease of NOK 22 million from first quarter of 2020. This brings us to an adjusted EBIT of NOK 215 million, which represents a decrease of 9%. As you can see in the chart at the left-hand side, the Consumer segment is the main driver for the decrease. The EBIT development represents a decrease in adjusted EBIT margin of 7 percentage points year-on-year. The increased OpEx is driven by M&A.

Looking at the last 12 months on the right-hand side, we see that the adjusted EBIT on group level is up NOK 39 million from NOK 547 million in first quarter of 2020 to NOK 586 million for the first quarter of 2021. This represents an increase of 15% year-on-year, but the last 12 months' adjusted EBIT margin is decreasing 2 percentage points year-on-year, down to 37%.

In the next slides, I will break the numbers on the reporting segments. Page 13. In the Consumer segment, adjusted net revenue is decreasing 14% year-on-year to a nominal level of NOK 312 million. As Rolf stated earlier on, we experienced a great price volatility in electricity market in first quarter. The net revenue decrease is driven mainly by these unfavorable market dynamics, reducing margins, while the decrease in number of electricity deliveries have a minor impact. The number on EBIT adjusted level of NOK 110 million is a decrease of NOK 79 million year-on-year. This gives an adjusted EBIT margin of 35%, which is a significant decrease year-on-year versus a historically strong first quarter 2020.

Moving on to the Business segment. We have a nominal adjusted net revenue of NOK 138 million. This represents an increase of 28%, which is driven by volume growth, both from M&A and from increased volume per delivery. The number on EBIT adjusted level is NOK 90 million, which gives an adjusted EBIT margin of 65%. This is a significant margin increase year-on-year, driven by volume growth.

Page 14, carrying on with the Nordic segment. This is developing as planned and delivers NOK 40.5 million in adjusted net revenue and NOK 21.6 million in adjusted EBIT. This brings the EBIT margin up to 53% this quarter. In comparison with fourth quarter of 2020, it's important to note that the Q4 numbers only include the period from closing of the Switch Nordic Green transaction in November. Continuing with New Growth Initiatives on the right-hand side, we see a 65% increase in adjusted net revenue year-on-year, bringing us up to a nominal level of NOK 19 million in the first quarter of 2021. The nominal EBIT adjusted increased by NOK 3.8 million. The increase is driven by both Alliance and Mobile.

Page 15, quick look at the net working capital slide, tells us that the net working capital is increasing to NOK 542 million at quarter end. In addition to seasonality and increased prices and volumes, net working capital was impacted by quarter end during Easter public holidays, which affected the timing of customer payments. And this led to a temporarily increased accounts receivables at the end of the quarter. However, the net working capital was negative again at the end of April.

Page 16. Quick look at the cash generation slide, tells us that the cash generation is still strong, and the cash EBIT adjusted, as you see inside the frame, is NOK 197 million in the first quarter. In combination with change in net working capital, this brings us to a temporarily net cash position of negative NOK 802 million at quarter end.

Next slide, Page 17. On the back of the results in first quarter, we made a minor revision of organic outlook. At group level, we keep our guidance, but the distribution between segments is somewhat changed. In the Consumer segment, we are expecting a slightly negative net revenue growth and EBIT margin in the area of 30% in 2021. In the Business segment, we are expecting a higher EBIT margin than targeted in 2021. And continuing to Nordic segment, we are increasing our target and expecting the EBIT contribution to be in the area of NOK 65 million in 2021. Finally, in the New Growth Initiatives segment, we are increasing our target and are expecting a 75% improvement in nominal EBIT from 2020 to 2021. Apart from this, we keep our outlook as stated in the Capital Markets Day in February.

Morten will now facilitate the Q&A session. Thank you.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Thank you, Ole. We are moving over to the Q&A session. And we have a couple of questions received already. We will start with the following question.

You write in your report that all matters that have been discussed with the CA are settled. Last quarter, I believe you commented that you had received a letter from the competition authorities, asking for more details. Has this issue also been closed, settled? Are you aware of potential lawsuits from customers claiming to not have been notified according to regulations?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

The first question is, yes, that case has been settled. Regarding the second question, we are not aware of such possibility for a lawsuit.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Okay. We are moving over to the next question. It's the following. There have been several new entrants to the electricity markets the last couple of quarters, branding themselves as offering more competitive and transparent prices. Do you see a negative impact on pricing from these players? Is there a risk that your margin in the Consumer segment will be structurally lower in the years ahead based on the price level you see from these players?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

I think that we have said for a long time that one of the things that we have to cope with is margin contractions. We said that when we are listed, and the competition has been very tough since we are listed and actually the last 10 years. So there's no news in companies or new entrants trying to lower the prices. That's normal competition and something that every player in retail, in general, has to cope with. So I don't think that there are any news. But as we have said for a long time now, we believe that we have to cope with margin contractions, and we work on that every day. And we -- this has been a major topic also for us in all our -- on all our capital market days. So no news regarding that point. From my perspective, we have to cope with that.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Okay. The next question is the following. Are you interested in the Fortum retail business?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

We don't comment on specific targets when it comes to M&A. We have said that we are a Nordic player. We look upon several cases, but we don't comment on specific cases at all.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Okay. We have a question regarding the Trygg Strømhandel certification. Can you elaborate on the expected effects from the certification process? How do you believe that this will impact competition in the market? And will it improve the situation for you?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

We, for sure, support Trygg Strømhandel. We have been working on this together with Energi Norge and Distriktsenergi, many other players, for a really long time due to the fact that we certainly believe that the playing field has to be equalized. We have to have rules that benefits the whole sector or the entire sector. So we think that this will be -- make this sector more transparent. And we really look forward to be done. We surely hope that we will be one of the players that will be -- have our certification in this first batch in the beginning on September. And we work really hard to cope with the demands in this certification process. There are a lot of rules and formalities that has to be in place, and we are well ahead of schedule to be compliant. So we surely think that, that will be okay for us.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Okay. The next question is regarding M&A and in particular, for the Swedish and the Finnish markets. Do you believe it's more likely to see 1 or 2 large acquisitions or more smaller ones?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Well, that's a very difficult question to answer. It depends on how we define large or small. The market in Sweden or Finland are as fragmented as here in Norway. So we are looking in -- we are looking at all the players there, and we are working on this actually. Every day, we have people both in Sweden and Finland, looking on the -- or working for M&A agenda. So I can't give a clear answer to that question actually.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Okay. The last question is around the revised guidance in the Consumer segment. If we can give some more details around the revision -- is it driven by fewer customers, lower product margins, et cetera?

I can comment on that. The main reason for the revision is the Q1 results and the volatility and the demanding market development that affected the segment, as Ole presented. The reduction in number of customers has a very limited impact on the expected results going forward.

The second part of the question is whether we expect power prices to stay at a higher level also in the second half of 2021 versus last year. 2020 was a year with very low electricity prices, historically low. So I think it would be reasonable to expect that prices will be higher in the second half of 2021 compared to 2020.

Okay. That's all the questions from us. So we will end the section, and thank you all for participating. Have a good day.

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Have a good day.