Rumo SA

BOVESPA:RAIL3

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. Welcome to Rumo's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Presentation. [Operator Instructions] This presentation is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

Before proceeding, we would like to reiterate that forward-looking statements are based on Rumo's Executive Board's beliefs and assumptions and information currently available to the Company. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties as they relate to future events and depend on circumstances that may or may not materialize. We recommend that you refer to the disclaimer on the second page of the presentation.

Now I will turn it over to Mr. Felipe Saraiva, Rumo's Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Saraiva, you may begin the presentation.

[Felipe Saraiva, executive]

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Rumo's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call.

Let's start with the highlights on Slide 3 of our presentation. Our railway was the main logistics corridor in our key markets. Despite the lower export demand for the Brazilian grains, we maintained a solid year-over-year performance, which resulted in an increase in market share in the states of Mato Grosso and Goias and in the ports of Santos, Paranagua and Sao Francisco do Sul.

We also recorded growth in transported volumes in other portfolios, especially in industrial products, driven mainly by the start of operations at Suzano's new pulp plant in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul. The higher volumes, combined with an 18 increase in our average yields have boosted our quarterly results.

Adjusted EBITDA reached BRL 2.2 billion, up 22%; and adjusted net income was BRL 794 million, marking our best quarterly results. At the end of September, our financial leverage ratio was 1.4x, a decrease from previous quarters, underscoring our deleveraging trend for the year. I would also like to highlight the progress of the Mato Grosso Greenfield railway project, which I will discuss further ahead.

On Page 4, I present the market share for the quarter. As I have mentioned on the previous page, we increased our market share across the 4 highlighted operations, both in the quarter and over the 9 first months of the year.

On Page 5, we will discuss the operational indicators. Transit time for our Northern operation, which measures the travel time between Rondonopolis and Santos improved year-over-year and from the prior quarter as well, reaching 82 hours. This improvement reflects our railway systems' enhanced productivity, contributing to the record operational performance this quarter. The dwell time in Santos was 16 hours, an improvement over the last year due to the enhanced management at the Port of Santos and also the recent investments. In terms of energy efficiency, our fuel consumption metric showed a slight improvement compared to the third quarter of last year.

On Page 6, I will present the operational results and volumes. We have achieved 2% growth in transported volume with a total amount of 21.7 billion RTK. I would like to highlight our operational records to the date. This year, we reached record highs in May, June, August, and September, showcasing the consistency of our operations. The Northern operation was the main driver of this growth with an increase of 6%, supported by the transport of grains, fertilizers, and pulp. In the Southern operation, the volume decline was a result of the tragic and extreme weather events in May. The railway stretch denominated as Tronco Sul remains indefinitely suspended.

On Page 7, we will cover the revenue and yields highlights. Margin growth was one of the main positive points of the quarter, supported by railway transportation contracts secured in the second half of last year. Our yields reflect the value of a large-scale, competitive, and reliable logistics solution, aligned with the decarbonization of the industries we serve.

On Page 8, we will review the EBITDA for the quarter. Contribution margin growth was the main factor driving EBITDA growth this period. Fixed costs and operating expenses grew at a slower pace than contribution margin expansion, in line with the Rumo strategy to support investments in capacity expansion, efficiency improvements, and risk management.

On Page 9, I will present the financial results and net income. The financial result for the quarter was BRL 575 million, supporting net income for the period. It's worth mentioning that a significant portion of our debt is floating CDI, either directly or through derivatives. Adjusted net income reached BRL 794 million, our best quarterly result, boosted by a solid operational performance.

On Page 10, we will cover our debt profile. We closed the quarter with a financial leverage ratio of 1.4x, an improvement from the previous quarter and in line with our deleveraging trend for the year. We have successfully completed another series of liability management transactions. On one hand, we issued BRL 800 million in local debentures with a 12 years maturity and a swap cost of 98% of the CDI. On the other hand, we executed an early redemption of BRL 750 million, originally due in October 2027 with a financial cost of 112% of the CDI. Our liquidity profile remains strong, with BRL 9 billion in cash and well-distributed maturities over the coming years.

On Page 11, we will review the quarter's investments. We have invested BRL 1.5 billion with BRL 455 million in recurring investments, BRL 484 million in the Mato Grosso expansion project, and BRL 529 million in other expansion projects. In the Mato Grosso greenfield rail expansion, we accelerated disbursements due to the physical construction progress.

Now let's turn to the grains market update, beginning on Page 12, with soybeans. For the '24/25 season, we expect soybean production in Mato Grosso to increase, supported by a return to the historical productivity levels following the last season crop failure. Seeding was wrapped up in October, covering approximately 80% of the area and in line with the region's historical average. The rainy forecast for the coming weeks indicate favorable conditions for the crop development.

Now on Page 13, we will look for the outlook for corn. Corn production in Mato Grosso for the '24/25 season is expected to remain stable at roughly 50 million tonnes. We estimate that the expansion in planted area will offset a return to historical agricultural yield levels. Notably, the progress in the soybean plant in October has reduced the risks for the 2025 corn planting time frame.

Now let's move to Page 14. Among the changes, I would like to welcome Guilherme Machado, who will join Rumo's team as our new CFO. Daniel Rockenbach will now focus only on managing the Southern network, bringing a greater attention to this railway and leading the potential renewal of this concession. Cristiano Brasil, previously Vice President of People, now leads operations, bringing his solid experience in complex operation within the cement and food and beverage industries. Finally, Bruna Perpetuo joins Rumo's management team leading the people area.

This concludes my presentation, and we are now open for the Q&A session. Thank you.

[Operator]

We will now begin the Q&A session. Joining us today are Mr. Pedro Palma, Rafael Bergman, Gustavo Marder, and Felipe Saraiva. [Operator Instructions]

Our first question is from Mr. Pedro Bruno from XP.

[Pedro Bruno, analyst]

Thanks for taking my question, which is about the Lucas do Rio Verde project CapEx, the Mato Grosso expansion. This quarter has been the most relevant as you had been indicating, there would be a ramp-up in that CapEx. But this far, the company hadn't got close to what had been indicated in the past as the expectation to execute these first years from an annualized point of view. So that level, close to that, I think it's BRL 484 million CapEx execution in this quarter. Should we consider that level as "Full speed CapEx execution" and whether that should be a quarterly cap for execution, indicating that the project would have reached that full speed run rate? And just to add an update on the operating development.

[Pedro Palma, executive]

Good afternoon, everyone. This is Pedro Palma. I'll start, from a practical point of view, we look at the constructive CapEx for the rail. We can say that in this quarter, the execution was the pace we expect for the next quarters. Obviously, there may be some fluctuations given the pace of the work that is being done, climate effects, rain, there may be some variation. But looking at the pace with which the rail is advancing, mobilization is great. We're at full mobilization. All the work fronts are going ahead. So we'll get to the end of 2026, which is the end of this project at this pace.

A couple of other points, looking at the CapEx as a whole for the whole system. These are the early stages of the construction of the terminal in BR-70. So that mobilization started recently. So looking at the terminal, there should be more of an advance in '25, '26, and obviously, closer to the end, when we're nearer the time when the terminal will go into operation, then we'll have the rolling stock point, which will be regulated as it goes into operation. But those are the only 2 added elements to the pace that we have right now.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Mr. Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan.

[Guilherme Mendes, analyst]

About the take-or-pays for next year, now that planting of soybean in Mato Grosso is better, you talked about prospects for corn. Could you tell us how discussions with trading companies have been going in the last few weeks?

[Pedro Palma, executive]

Hello, Guilherme. This is Pedro again. Let me just reiterate a point. As we said in our previous conversations and previous conference calls, we're very optimistic about next year's production scenario. There was some doubt maybe a few months ago, but the rain is now back to normal level, soybean planting has been taking place at a very fast pace. It's almost finished now. It happened very quickly when the rains came. So it's a very positive window for soybean production. You heard Saraiva's presentation. It's great prospects for soybean production.

As for the window, things are also looking up for corn. And looking at more granular scenario, including input delivery, fertilizer, crop protection, all the micro elements when we monitor that for planting corn, down the line, we still need to wait a little bit more. But it really does look like it will be a great corn crop as well and a great season, given the delay in planting the soybean, there's a volume concentration in 2025, Guilherme.

As for trading, we feel very comfortable. We have been progressing as the rains have got back to normal levels. That has had an impact on client appetite. And since last call, we have been appreciating the services we provide. And as we confirm that next year's crop will be positive, I'm very optimistic. All the contracts that we have already signed have been at fair and right prices for our services.

And I'm very happy with the trading pace that we've had so far. Obviously, I can't disclose -- I didn't disclose it before. I won't disclose it now, what the percentage of what has been sold so far. But I can reiterate that I am absolutely confident that 2025 is going to be a very solid year with a great crop and Rumo's execution capacity will be excellent with fair prices for our services. So we'll have another very strong year for the company in 2025 in terms of results.

[Operator]

Next question is from Mr. Lucas Marquiori from BTG Pactual.

[Lucas Marquiori, analyst]

Well, the construction for '25 as a whole, I'd like to hear from you and the whole team, what Rumo's decision is going to be in building up to 2025? I know that you're not going to disclose what the take-or-pays are looking like, but we think there should be less sales, less forward selling as it was last year, at least looking at produces, that's what it's looking like. So what kind of implications will that have for Rumo's operations?

So if the market, right, Pedro. If there's an overlap of crops that spot prices should go up. So what does that mean for Rumo? I'm just trying to understand if everyone goes to the spot, if that means an upside or a downside for Rumo in terms of building your capacity portfolio for next year. How are you thinking about that topic? And does that mean you have to be more or less commercially aggressive? So I'd like to hear your opinion on that.

[Pedro Palma, executive]

Well, looking at our commercial positioning, from a practical point of view, it's based on our competitive advantages, the fact that we have, over time, built a railway, a network and a penetration in the main agribusiness production area. So that gives us great origination power and flexibility.

Not only do we have the North Network operation, we have the Central Network as a capacity buffer within our system. So we have been also getting more terminals into operation, more origination capacity. And that, combined with our execution excellence, our commercial excellence in our relationship with our clients, that means that we have come into a position of being the preferred supplier of logistics services in the market.

So to be very transparent with you, I don't want to be opportunistic, but of course, we want to appreciate our services. We've been on a journey, which is still ongoing, and it will continue to happen in 2025. When you have a very concentrated crop from a practical point of view, that might mean opportunities if it hasn't been fully contracted for the whole crop season. It could bring opportunities for additional gains and prices within the system. I'm being very transparent with you, but I'm not counting on that. That's not what's on my mind.

What I do see is that as weeks go by, as we get closer to the beginning of the crop season, there will be contracts to fill execution capacities that are required for the first 2 months for soybean for the whole process. There is no operating need on Rumo's side to be able to maximize capacity to have had 100% of our capacity contracted before the beginning of the year. Now we do have to have a prior capacity. We have to have done maintenance ahead of time. We have to have good operating planning management, but we can do that in relatively short periods of time. So don't -- I'm not worried with having everything fully contracted ahead of time. And I think that could give us a better capacity for pricing down the line.

So I'm just reiterating that is not my main driver. I'm not going to force clients to buy if they don't want to buy 100% of the volume right now. But obviously, we do value our service. If people want to buy at a time of peak, that's a risk. They're risking me saying, well, unfortunately, I don't have enough capacity. But obviously, if I still have some capacity, it will be more expensive.

[Operator]

Next question is from Mr. Daniel Gasparete from Itau BBA.

[Daniel Gasparete, analyst]

Most of my questions have been answered, but I'd like to hear from you about your South Network strategy. You now have an executive that is dedicated to that. So if you could give me some color on that, that would be great.

[Pedro Palma, executive]

Hello, Daniel, this is Pedro again. As you saw, Daniel, we changed our structure, focusing on the South Network because it was clear to me that we need to look at the South Network with greater focus than we had been so far because of the ability that that network has to generate value within its structure, within our everyday management. It's a very extensive network in our portfolio with a large number of people, it's very rich in terms of operations and commercial integration with local stakeholders. That's all very powerful.

The southern region has a very specific demand. And within that process, when we made the decision to consider treating the South Network as an independent business with its own capacity to execute on its own plans with more freedom, there was nobody better in our team than Daniel Rockenbach to lead that structure. And within that process, what I see for the South Network is that we do have an ability to generate even more value within the network with our everyday management.

And obviously, Daniel, we need to get that network ready to discuss its future. So the future of that network has to have a robust business plan and a very specific interaction with the government so that we can move forward with it, and move forward in our discussions with the government to a potential renewal. I think that conversation with the government is still quite incipient. And Rock, now, with the South Network team and obviously, Rumo S.A. support as a holding company will undoubtedly be brilliant in leading that process.

And just to take this opportunity, Daniel, this wasn't your question, but I will take this opportunity because we're talking about the South Network. I've talked about Daniel Rockenbach's transition. So I'm going to talk about how we've organized ourselves. Cristiano Brasil will now be playing a more relevant role in Operations. And to talk about Cris, Cris is somebody who's been with us for 2 years.

When he joined us, I think it was on purpose, we brought in somebody who had experience with people because that was the original mission. But also, somebody who had operating management experience in other industries, other businesses with good management skills, people leading skills because you know that leading railways, even though this is a heavy asset, it's really a people business. We have a lot of people out in the field, and we need people who can lead those people in its everyday business. So just like Daniel Rockenbach, Cris has that skill. He has a lot of experience with people. So I'm very confident in this new work chart that we have now.

And just to give some more color on what Cris had been doing, he had already been prepared in this process to potentially succeed Rock in the North operation. He played a key role, for instance, in stabilizing the safety issue in the Santos region. You know that, that was our Achilles' heel at the beginning of '23, practically across the year of '23. Cris was the man. He and his team turned the whole safety issue around. And thanks to them, we no longer have to discuss that topic with you now. So he has the skills to control the operation, change it and take it to a whole new level.

So, I'm very happy that we have gone through this reorg, Rock is going to stay here with us. And I think now we have a highly energized team to continue on this journey and to continue progressing. and improving Rumo's numbers.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mr. Victor Mizusaki from Bradesco BBI.

[Victor Mizusaki, analyst]

Congratulations on your results. I have a question on a couple of topics that were mentioned during the call. So first one, take-or-pay. Second one, improvements in the operations in the North Network. So considering 2025, despite things looking up, if for any reason, the take-or-pay percentage is lower than Rumo's historical levels, what could be done so that doesn't have such a huge impact on efficiency in 2025?

[Pedro Palma, executive]

Hello, Victor. So first point, well, I think there's going to be a lot of pressure in 2025. That's the scenario I'm looking -- I'm working with. I'm very optimistic about volume projections for all of our networks and looking at the North system even more so. Let me remind you that the main point of our system has to do with the Santos line. That is our main challenge when we look at the work we've been doing, we have been progressing in management and operating capacity in Santos and more than that. Santos operating capacity, structurally speaking, will be levered by STS11. That will be the main step, and it will take place in the second half of 2025 and going into full operation in 2026.

So looking at bulk, I have high expectations for great progress this year, but it's not in our sales plan to put pressure on this volume of agricultural bulk. Still on this bulk process, we have capacity in our network. And I think Saraiva talked about that recently, it's already had a positive impact on the short term. The new pulp plant that's gone into operation, Suzano's plant, next year, we'll have an annualized pulp volume that is higher than what we've got now. We'll have higher volumes coming in from fuels, which will also take up capacity in the network and our operating capacity and a volume that doesn't even go into Santos. So we can have even more progress. And we'll have new ore cargo going into the network at the end of this year, which will also create even more value in our system.

So looking at it as a whole, we've got grains from Mato Grosso, grains from Goias, grains from Tocantins, volumes -- sugar volumes from Sao Paulo. And now that the Iturama terminal is going into operation and the Central Network and operations we're doing in other terminals such as Chapadao do Sul, there's a very positive average distance that will occupy the rail capacity so that we're not depending so much on the Mato Grosso grain operation. So over time, we have been building flexibility and the commercial ability to attract cargo from different segments, from different origins and in the short term, we will optimize the systems balance according to the demand pressure and our operating capacity so that we can keep the system at its best capacity level and for a fair and correct price.

So flexibility in origination and segments makes us feel secure to have the right level of prices, because if demand isn't coming from one side, if there isn't an agreement with a client or if there's production failure, there are other segments and other regions that will meet that need. And so we can keep the system in operation, at capacity and over time, making sure that those bottlenecks are dealt with, and we always continue to raise the bar.

[Victor Mizusaki, analyst]

Just a quick point, Pedro. Let me just confirm I got it right. So given that scenario, the current spot price variable, it will more than offset volumes. If you had a longer plan, and the take-or-pay contract could give you, if you had capacity to meet the spot need, if the demand comes up, your price variable will more than offset slightly lower volumes. Did I get that right?

[Pedro Palma, executive]

Well, not necessarily. Let me just rephrase it. It's not really about the price variable. Looking at what we're selling, I'm very confident that we will execute on our bulk sales plan at the prices we want. And let me just remind you that to keep to our sales plan, we have different origins, and we have different segments that can occupy our rail capacity. So we're not depending on any specific client, on any specific terminal, on any specific individual type of cargo. There is flexibility enough in the system to check my boxes and maximize and obtain the returns we expect within the scenario.

So at the end of the day, that's what we're working with, and that's what we're doing to optimize the company's results. But again, I'm very confident for the 2025 scenarios. The production of our main commodities is very positive. I don't think our execution in 2025 will be very solid with solid services at fair prices. I'm being very honest. I'm really not concerned. I don't foresee any issues or points of concern for 2025.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mr. Filipe Nielsen from Citi.

[Filipe Ferreira Nielsen, analyst]

Can we go back to CapEx, please? We talked a lot about Lucas do Rio Verde project CapEx. Could you comment on how the other projects you're involved with are progressing? So there's the Paulista Network the expansion of the Santos terminal. I'd like to understand how these projects are going? What kind of CapEx expectations you've got for next year? Will you be ramping up those projects or not? Where is the company's energy going to go in developing all these projects at the same time looking forward? So if you could talk a little bit about those other projects, that would be great.

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Felipe, this is Rafael. Next year's CapEx guidance will be disclosed at the beginning of next year as usual. But just to provide some color on the development of those projects and looking at 2024 as a starting point, there have been investments in the Paulista Network, and we celebrated this new addition. So there will be a very relevant investment to be able to increase the -- to deliver on the capacity increase, which is used not only for -- to transport the Sao Paulo production, but also Mato Grosso production, Goias' production. So we're focusing on being able to deliver that capacity.

We've already talked about investments in the Port of Santos through FIPS, which is a partnership we've got with other railways. There's a lot of capacity gains to be explored there and to support the growth that will come in terms of capacity from other terminals. At the port, we have the Mato Grosso project. Pedro has already talked about that in detail. It's fully mobilized. And to talk about our partnership with CHS and DPW at the port, that is ongoing. It's on track. We signed an agreement with DPW in March. And in May, we entered into a partnership with CHS. So we're fine-tuning all the engineering right now. We're going through the licensing process so that we can be ready to start building next year.

So next year, we should have some investments going into that project. And the port project is a 50-50 partnership, and that is how it will be treated in terms of consolidating the CapEx here at Rumo. So we have a very robust portfolio and to support that growth portfolio, some time ago, we have changed, reorganized. We created a project -- specific project management area with very specific subdivisions for different blocks. We have a Mato Grosso block, a Paulista block, a Port of Santos block, and another one that is already ready for the grains and fertilizers terminal through a partnership with CHS.

So we're fully mobilized, good management, on track, and great capital structure for that investment cycle, as Felipe said at the beginning of the conference call. Very healthy leverage at 1.4x, good profitability, cash generation, keeping up with the company's EBITDA increase, okay?

[Operator]

This concludes the Q&A session. We would like to hand the floor back over to Mr. Rafael Bergman for his final remarks.

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

First of all, I'd like to thank the shareholders for their trust in my 3 years here at Rumo. I want to thank everyone for the positive challenges. I want to thank Gustavo Marder, who is now going to take on other relevant challenges at Rumo as Felipe Saraiva, I know, have taken on the IR team. So thank you so much for your dedication in the IR team, Gustavo Marder. And I want to wish success to Guilherme Machado, who will be joining the company next week. Pedro and all my other colleagues at Rumo who will continue with this amazing project that you've all been seeing over time.

I'll turn it over to Pedro.

[Pedro Palma, executive]

Thank you, Rafael. I want to thank you for your extraordinary 3 years at Rumo. He is now taking on new challenges, and I think that only strengthens the role of the Cosan Group as a whole. It's wonderful to be able to count on exceptional professionals within our ecosystem. And that appreciates each one of our companies. It's been amazing to be able to count on Rafa for the last 3 years, and I'm sure it's going to be amazing to be able to count on Guilherme Machado on the rest of this journey.

Just to remind you, Guilherme Machado has been with us in the first years of Rumo right after the acquisition of LL way back when. So he's going to hit the ground running, fully integrated at a whole different level of responsibility, but also with a whole new level of experience. And just to conclude, we've just delivered -- Rafa has done a grand finale with an exceptional record quarter here in Rumo, and more than being a record quarter, it's a stable quarter, 1.4x leverage.

When we look at the volumes we've been executing on, you can see that month after month, we've been consolidating a very high level of execution. And that's what we want to do. We want to keep raising the bar, looking at pricing capacity scenario, value creation for the business and the future that is being built with all the work that's being done in Mato Grosso and the beginning of the works at the new terminal at the Port of Santos with CHS. I'm really truly optimistic, and I am absolutely certain that Rumo will continue on this journey and will have a very successful next cycle.

I want to thank all the shareholders for your trust on this journey. And I think that's it for today. Let's get to work. Thanks, everyone.

[Operator]

Rumo's third quarter 2024 conference call is now concluded. Thank you for joining us. And have a great day.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]