Rumo SA

BOVESPA:RAIL3

Earnings Call Analysis

Record Harvest Drives Rumo's Strong Q3 Results

In Q3 2023, Rumo's commitment to social initiatives played a vital role in its strategy. The freight market thrived on a bumper soybean and corn harvest, particularly from Brazil's Midwest. This surge reinforced railways' structural competitiveness, achieving all-time high volumes and a 27% increase in EBITDA to BRL 1.8 billion. Despite challenges, including criminal incidents, Rumo saw progress in extensions and new operations. Yields rose by 10%, thanks to robust demand for agricultural transport, even with a 39% drop in fuel costs. Net income reached BRL 483 million, reflecting higher volumes and margins. Investments included BRL 895 million, pointing to growth with a 2024 forecast of a record soybean harvest expected to aid momentum.

Encouraging Growth Amid Challenges

In the third quarter of 2023, the company saw substantial growth, driven by a record soybean and corn harvest in Brazil, enhancing its structural railway competitiveness. However, they encountered significant challenges, such as increased criminal activities impacting operations, which the state authorities mitigated gradually. Despite these difficulties, the company's expansion projects, like the Mato Grosso extension, the Central Network's last stretch, and the newly operational FIPS internal railway, progressed well. The transportation volumes increased by 4%, and yields rose due to high demand for agricultural commodity transportation, even with a notable reduction in fuel prices.

Financial Performance and Investor Confidence

Reaching an EBITDA of BRL 1.8 billion, marking a 27% increase, and an impressive EBITDA margin of 57.2%, the company's financials reflected its strong operational performance and efficiency. The reduction in variable costs, particularly the 39% decrease in fuel prices, and the containment of fixed costs and SG&A expenses, despite some incurred remediation costs, were considerable contributing factors. The net financial results and profit followed suit, with a net financial profit standing at BRL 483 million for the quarter.

Sturdy Debt and Investment Profile

The debt profile remained robust with financial leverage at 1.8x net debt to EBITDA ratio, and a solid cash position of about BRL 9.9 billion, offering strategic flexibility. Investments worth BRL 895 million, with a focus on both recurring CapEx and expansion initiatives, highlighted the company's commitment to scaling its operations and infrastructure, particularly in Mato Grosso.

Promising Market and Crop Outlook

Looking forward, initial estimates for the 2023 and 2024 soybean harvest project another record yield of around 166 million tons, significantly beneficial for the company. Corn projections also show promising figures, indicating a robust demand cycle to support the company's transportation services. Despite concerns about the weather, the company remains sold forward for its capacity next year, indicating strong client demand and mitigating potential impacts.

Maintaining Momentum and Addressing Future CapEx

The company reported growth in October volumes and aims to sustain this momentum to end the year robustly. For 2024, the commercialization outlook remains optimistic with high levels of grain forward sales already secured, suggesting minimal concern over potential climate impacts. CapEx dynamics remain on track, with accelerated land and infrastructure activities. The total CapEx for the year is expected to align with the strategic plan, emphasizing the Lucas do Rio Verde project, which indicates an intensive CapEx period for the next two years.

Final Thoughts and Strategic Direction

The concluding remarks in the conference call emphasized the strategic initiatives underway and the optimistic view toward weathering the potential challenges ahead. The company remains attentive to opportunities that augment its capacity, such as those at the Port of Santos, and anticipates concluding the year on a strong note, with the next earnings release call set for February of the following year.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Good afternoon, and thank you for waiting. Welcome to Rumo's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call.

Today with us, we have Mr. Rafael Bergmann, CFO and IRO; and Mr. Gustavo Rosa, Investor Relations and Strategic Planning Director. [Operator Instructions] Rumo's Q&A session will be conducted in Portuguese and there will be simultaneous translation into English. This event is being broadcast simultaneously on the Internet via webcast.

Before proceeding, we would like to mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Rumo's management team as well as on information currently available to the company. They involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Participants should read the disclaimer available on the second page of the presentation.

I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Gustavo Marder. Please, Mr. Marder, you may proceed.

[Gustavo da Rosa, executive]

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining the third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. As usual, let's start with the ESG highlights on Page 3 of the presentation.

I would like to highlight our social agenda embedded in the core of our business strategy. By working more closely with the vulnerable communities around the railroad in the municipalities of Cubatão and some in the Baixada Santista in the state of Sao Paulo. In partnership with other stakeholders, we are concluding an assessment of priority communities in the region in order to develop a new engagement plan and initiatives focused on building a long-term relationship with these communities and playing a leading role in carrying the local community. We emphasize that the development of these regions nearby the railroad are essential to sustain the growth of our business.

On the next slide, I will talk about the highlights of the quarter. The freight market remains booming, driven by record soybean and corn harvest in Brazil, especially in the Midwest region. This market momentum has reinforced the structural competitiveness of railway with whom once again recording quarterly records for transported volumes and EBITDA.

For 2024, we don't see any structural changes in this scenario, which should remain very constructive to Rumo. As we mentioned in the previous quarters, we faced important challenges at the beginning of the year. With the increase in the frequency of criminal incidents in the Baixada Santista region. The actions of the state authorities were essential in reducing the incidence of the problems faced in the region with sequential improvement noted over the period.

Finally, I would like to highlight the positive aspects of our growth plan on 3 fronts. We started the construction works in Rumo's extension in Mato Grosso, which we'll comment later on the presentation. On Central Network, we delivered last stretch in the previous quarter, and we are already operating industrial cargo transported in containers. And on October 1, the FIPS internal railway at the Port of Santos began operations under a new regulatory framework.

On the next slide, we will present our market share performance. Our volumes increased on both Malha Norte and Malha Central, but the market grew even more, taking our market share to 39% in Mato Grosso; 53% in Santos; and 20% in Goias. As a result of higher level of utilization of the port terminals in which Rumo operates, part of the volumes were transported by trucks and other railways.

In the Southern operation, there was a reduction in market share offerings at the ports of Paranaguá and São Francisco do Sul. While the market experienced significant growth compared to the soybean harvest shortfall in 2022, Rumo had a different cargo allocation as compared to the same period last year, with higher volumes of sugar and cargoes coming from the Rio Grande do Sul states.

On the next slide, we will detail the operations KPIs. We recorded consecutive quarters of improvement in our main KPIs. Even with the higher volumes, the transit time in the North operation, which measures the travel time between Rondonópolis and Santos reduced. The real time in the Santos also decreased. In terms of energy efficiency, the result came in line versus the third quarter of last year.

On the next slide, we'll talk about our operational results. The transported volume grew by 4% compared to the third quarter of 2022, driven by agricultural commodities. In the North operation, the volumes grew by 6%, mainly driven by higher volumes of corn, which grew 15%. Moreover, we recorded higher volumes of soybean meal, sugar and fuel, increasing 8%, 17% and 13%, respectively.

The Southern operation fell by 1%. The highlight was the transportation of sugar with a 5% increase and the higher volumes of soybeans. On the other hand, we have recorded lower transported volumes in fuels and industrials.

On the next slide, we will present the revenues and yields. The structural competitiveness of railway and the greater demand for transportation of agricultural commodities once again boosted yields in the quarter. Consolidated yields increased by 10% compared to the same period last year despite the 39% reduction in fuel prices. Year-to-date, we recorded double-digit growth in yields for all the operations and 15% in consolidated figures.

On the next slide, I will present the EBITDA per operation. EBITDA reached BRL 1.8 billion, up 27% with an EBITDA margin of 57.2%. On a like-for-like basis, due to the sale of the terminals T16 and T19 in the fourth quarter, growth would have been 31% year-on-year.

In the North operations on a like-for-like basis, growth was 27%. In the Southern operation, EBITDA rose by 44%. EBITDA margins were 61.9% and 44.2%, respectively. Variable cost fell by 28%, mainly reflecting the 39% reduction in fuel prices. Fixed costs and SG&A expenses were impacted by approximately BRL 40 million in remediation costs for public safety incidents in the first quarter 2023, such as waste collection and disposal and permanent waste maintenance.

On the next slide, we'll talk about the financial results and net profit. The net financial result was BRL 678 million in the quarter, mainly due to contingency accrual in the quarter and other financial income and expenses, partially offset by the lower cost of net debt due to the lower average CDI for the period, the main indexer of the company's debt portfolio, either contractually or by derivatives. Net income for the quarter was BRL 483 million, positively impacted by the growth in volumes and margins.

On the next slide, we'll present our debt profile. In the end of the quarter, financial leverage was 1.8x net debt to EBITDA per comparable last 12 months EBITDA. For better illustration, the leverage calculation is regards the results of Terminals T16 and T19 over the last 12 months.

We ended the quarter with a very strong cash position with roughly [ BRL 9.9 billion ] in cash and maturities well distributed over the next few years.

The next slide presents some of the investments we made in the quarter. Total investment was BRL 895 million in the quarter, of which BRL 346 million refers to recurring CapEx, and BRL 482 million to expansion projects, while BRL 68 million were invested in Rumo's expansion in Mato Grosso. In this project, I would like to highlight the progress made in the execution of land moving works for the first 35 kilometers as well as the progress of expansion structures such as bridges and viaduct.

On the next slide, we'll present the outlook for the soybean and the corn markets. Initial estimates for 2023 and 2024 soybean harvest point to a new record harvest around 166 million tons, with 102 million tons destined for export. The most significant growth should occur in the state of Rio Grande do Sul with 8 million tons produced and 3 million tons exported more than in the last crop, while all the other states should have production and exports in lines with the previous harvest.

On the next slide, we will look at the outlook for corn. As for this year corn crop, the harvest has already been completed, and projections from specialized consultancies indicates a record production of 137 million tons with 57 million tons being exported. For the next year crop production is expected to be around 131 million tons, of which 54 million tons should be exported.

Regarding the corn carryover inventory for 2024, the volume in Brazil could reach 17 million tons, 1 million tons more than the previous year, with an increase of around 2 million tons in the state of Mato Grosso, reaching 6 million tons. This concludes the presentation, and we are available for Q&A. Thank you.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan.

[Guilherme Mendes, analyst]

I will ask one as requested. I'd like to hear about volumes. In the fourth quarter, we saw the data from October yesterday, but I'd like to hear about November, where expectation is for December. What should we expect in terms of increase year-on-year?

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Thank you for your question. The fourth quarter is very unique as we've seen in previous years. Its volume seasonality applies both to the market and as you said, as of December, we had more maintenance on the terminals. So the seasonality is normal, and we don't see any changes happening this year.

We reported October's volume. There was a growth when compared to last year. Obviously, there's a lot of raining on progress so the rain did have an effect. And looking forward, we'll look at what happens to the weather so that our operation can keep at the levels we expect them to. We have a demand we need to meet, and we also need to look at the carryover inventories in terms of the guidance, we have the guidance for the year. The third quarter was very good in terms of volume. We had 2 consecutive volume record months. Well now we need to carry on working to make sure we have a good fourth quarter and end the year with a robust performance, which is what we have been sharing with you.

[Operator]

Next question is from Lucas Marquiori from BTG.

[Lucas Marquiori, analyst]

I'd like to hear about the commercialization dynamics for 2024. If you could talk about the crop in soybean scenarios. And if you sold any soybean and corn forward, how much on what terms? And how much is that threatened by climate events? There's a huge concern about El Nino. If you could comment on that and the impact it might have on your commercialization.

[Operator]

Can you hear us Lucas?

[Lucas Marquiori, analyst]

Yes. I can hear you. Can you hear me?

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Yes. Great. I'll start by the end of your question. No, I got the question. It was just disconnected briefly at the end, I just wanted to make sure that you were still there. So I'll start with the market and planing, forecast. We are watching the news. We have more consultants. And we're also talking to growers and our other clients. So for next year, the soybean crop will be excellent. So we should keep record yields. So we should see similar levels to this year.

As for corn and specifically in the regions where we operate, I think the prospects are for a slight reduction, but that will happen based on very high levels. I think the weather issues you've been hearing about, have more to do with other regions in the country. But more importantly, at least from our standpoint and going back to the first part of your question, we are considerably sold forward, considering our capacity for next year when it comes to grains.

And so we're practically covered for next year. And even with the high level of commercialization that we've already had, our clients are still interested in even more capacities. So yes, there are some weather issues, but we're not as worried about that.

[Operator]

Next question is from Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs.

[Bruno Amorim, analyst]

I'd like to hear about CapEx. For the 9 months of the year, if we look at the first 9 months of the year, it looks like you'll have less CapEx than you disclosed in the guidance. So will you speed it up in the fourth quarter? Or will you keep it lower than the guidance? And if so, why is the CapEx lower than what was expected?

And along the same lines, what can you expect in terms of CapEx for next year?

Next year, we also have some additional CapEx owing to Lucas do Rio Verde. So I'd like to hear about CapEx in the mid to the long term.

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Thanks for your question, Bruno. The CapEx dynamics for this year is according to plan. So we will be accelerating our expansion project and specifically, but not only the Lucas do Rio Verde project, we have been mobilizing it. And right now, we have more field activity, which is translating into a higher CapEx, and we saw some of that in the third quarter. So the [ curve ] should follow that into the fourth quarter.

So our plan is on track. And as was expected. So we have been investing in land and preparing for the works, but now there's a lot of earth works going on. We also have some special engineering structure work going on in terms of bridges and overprice. So that should accelerate.

And moving on to the second part of your question, obviously, that will carry over to next year. Next year, we should have an intense CapEx year considering the Lucas project. We booked to start operating in 2026, so '24 and '25 should be CapEx intensive when it comes to the Lucas project. And in addition to the Lucas project, we also have our own Paulista network and FIPS CapEx. So that's the rest for next year. But -- to reiterate our guidance, ex Lucas up to 25%. And including the Lucas guidance, we will keep our prospects. So no changes there. It's the natural mobilization dynamics that is being translated into that acceleration.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Filipe Nielsen from Citi.

[Filipe Ferreira Nielsen, analyst]

Congratulations on your results. I'd like to hear what your SUDAM benefit. In theory, that should expire in 2023. Are there negotiations to renew that? How is that going? Could you give us some color on how that is developing?

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Thank you for your question. That benefit from SUDAM has to do with a wide variety of investments that we're making in the operation that starts at the Rondonópolis terminal. This is ongoing. New investments have been made in organizing and increasing efficiency in the operation. And right now, we're just picking up to what was expected, technical plan, field visits. So we believe we fit with the program. So we need to wait for the next steps, but we believe our request is within the parameters.

[Operator]

Next question is from Rogério Araújo from Bank of America.

[Rogério Araújo, analyst]

Following up on the question about Lucas, during the close run day, you shared -- that you expected, we had [ BRL 250 ] per ton competitiveness in the 205 yield in the first half. So the potential yield increase would be [indiscernible] per car in '24. How are negotiations going and considering weather events will they mean that gap will be closed either upwards or downwards? And when you say that there's an interest on the part of client for more capacity. I'd like to do know, what's stopping Rumo from meeting that capacity right now? Do you not want to? Is it a matter of price negotiated -- do you want to leave some of that to the spot market.

[Unknown Executive]

Rogério, I'll answer your question, and I'll start with the second part. Our decision about how much volume we want to contract and how much we want to leave open is tactical. So I can't really share that with you. But in general terms, went back to the freight market fundamentals, we've had very high level of productions, regardless of weather events.

When you look at the corn crop in the second half of the year, we see that fundamentals have to do with the demand for Brazilian products. And yields continue to be very high and logistics, there's full demand for logistics. And obviously, Rumo has been making investments to provide -- to supply that demand. So there aren't any changes. I mean -- there may be some adjustments to yield, but it hasn't really impacted us. So what we said in our Investor Day in September, still goes when it comes to Rumo's competitiveness, and that is translated obviously into negotiations that have been taking place and are still taking place. The market looks very constructive, and we're very optimistic about next year.

[Operator]

Next question is from Victor Mizusaki from Bradesco BBI.

[Victor Mizusaki, analyst]

And congratulations on your results. I have a question about the Paulista Network at the quarter. That was delayed until next year? That's probably one who will get the final ruling, I'm sure there are some information available regarding the concession CapEx. Could you comment on what exactly we can wait for next week, we can expect for next week and whether that CapEx will be additional CapEx? Or if you will be switching projects within the concession agreement.

[Unknown Executive]

Just to put things into context, our works are being reviewed and Rumo requested that last year because we wanted to optimize the sequence and the scope of the works because that would address our concession agreement objectives better in terms of capacity and safety. So we submitted that request. It was delivered through [ NTT ] and it was forwarded to the external control secretary at [indiscernible] it went to the quarter accounts and they set up a permission with members from Rumo from the audit accounts, the ministry and the agency to debate that request, when it come to do an agreement proposal, which was made public, I think last week and the Minister and the reporting voted favorably, but like any other process we need to until other ministers express themselves.

So -- this is -- this should happen in November, then it will be subject to plenary, approval, then go back to the agency so that the final wording can be prepared. And so we believe it should be a few months before we conclude that.

And in terms of legal certainty, technical framework and the terms, we believe that it's a well-balanced solution in terms of what makes sense to the concession and to the government. So we just need to wait. As for what was in it, the sequence of the works, inclusion or exclusion of certain obligations and an economic and financial rebalancing of the agreement.

And the CapEx result when this subject or rules at plenary or code of the accounts or the maturity of BRL 500 million, and that fits with what we believe makes sense for the Paulista Network. But it wasn't in the obligations both, but it's part of the company's CapEx guidance considering the ex Lucas CapEx. So no changes to the guidance when it comes to the company's CapEx. And we believe this is a favorable solution to all stakeholders, this contract amendment.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from [ Andresa ] from UBS.

[Unknown Analyst]

It's a brief one. Could you update us on any renewal negotiations for the South network and return process of the West network.

[Gustavo da Rosa, executive]

[ Andresa ], this is Gustavo. I don't think we have any news about that for the time being. The request to -- renew bid for the West network is still with the agency. So I think the next step would be to have interested parties to follow Rumo and the concession. There hasn't been any progress on that. So there is no news.

As for the south network, we're still working with the agency to come up with the renewal proposal that is compelling. So we're still conducting studies. And there shouldn't be any immediate development because that work does take a bit of time so that we can get to a contract model that makes sense and that is compelling. So I wouldn't expect any news over the next few months about that either.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Victor Mizusaki, Bradesco BBI.

[Victor Mizusaki, analyst]

Just a follow-up question. Looking at your cash position and leverage presentation. So cash position is roughly BRL 9 billion. And during the Investor Day, you talked about the follow-on as an option. So my question is, has there been any progress on new projects that might trigger the need for a follow-on or capital structure and the company's high liquidity levels.

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Our liquidity position is compatible with our risk management and our debt maturity schedule and the ongoing CapEx projects. So it's about risk management and opportunities for credit access at a competitive level. That last issuance was very competitive to us. [ BNDS ] took part in it. So it made sense for us to increase the company's liquidity.

We're still focusing on executing that investment plan to continue with the Paulista Network. CapEx, FIPS, Lucas, which is ramping up -- and we don't talk about additional projects that have to do with unlocking value in our existing operation and the ongoing investment plan. So we will continue to keep our eyes out and available to discuss ways to increase capacity at the Port of Santos, just like we supported [indiscernible] initiative last year through the [ ITB the SFT 11] bidding.

So a capacity increase that may or may not involve some kind of participation. But all of that within the company's capital structure. I'm going back to the first part of your question. We have no plans to issue any company shares. Our capital structure is in a good position for our investment plan and the additional opportunities we are currently discussing.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] This concludes the Q&A session. I will now turn it over to Mr. Rafael Bergman for his closing remarks.

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Thanks, everyone, for joining us, and we'll see you again at this year's last call in February next year.

[Operator]

This concludes Rumo's earnings release conference call. Thank you very much for joining us. You may now disconnect. Have a great afternoon. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]