Rumo SA

BOVESPA:RAIL3

Earnings Call Analysis

Rumo's Q2 2024 Key Financial and Strategic Outcomes

In Q2 2024, Rumo achieved a 48% rise in adjusted EBITDA to BRL 2.1 billion, driven by increased volumes and a 32% yield growth. Adjusted net income skyrocketed over four times to BRL 721 million. A BRL 2.6 billion provision for impairment due to extreme weather impacted Rio Grande do Sul, though it was non-cash. Additionally, Rumo completed a BRL 169 million sale of terminal stakes. Financial leverage improved to 1.5x. Rumo also entered a new joint venture with CHS for a port facility in Santos. Despite volume challenges, the company has solid contract levels and anticipates better volumes ahead.

Robust Growth Amid Challenges

Rumo showcased a commendable performance during the second quarter of 2024. Despite facing setbacks such as soybean crop failures in the Midwest and sluggish farmer selling, the company managed to increase its transported volumes and gain market share. This success was fueled by a 32% increase in yields which significantly boosted their financial results. Rumo’s adjusted EBITDA climbed to BRL 2.1 billion, marking a 48% increase, while their adjusted net income rose to BRL 721 million from 4 times the previous year. Notably, their financial leverage ratio declined to 1.5x, indicating stronger financial health.

Weathering Non-Recurring Events

The quarter had its share of nonrecurring incidents that impacted Rumo’s results. A severe weather event in Rio Grande do Sul led to an accounting provision for impairment amounting to BRL 2.6 billion, although this had no cash effect. Additionally, an adjustment from the sale of an 80% stake in terminals T16 and T19 in Santos brought in BRL 169 million during the quarter. Despite these challenges, Rumo’s dedication to ESG practices was evident through their support actions for the affected communities in Rio Grande do Sul.

Strategic Partnerships and Market Expansion

Continuing to fortify its position, Rumo announced a strategic partnership with CHS to develop a new port facility in the DP World area in Santos. This joint venture highlights their strategic move to enhance capital structures and development capabilities. Furthermore, Rumo’s market share witnessed an increase across its main operations, underscoring its role as a leading logistics solution provider for agricultural commodities.

Operational Efficiency and Investment

Rumo managed to maintain transit times between Rondonopolis and Santos at 83 hours while improving rail dwell times in Santos to 15 hours. Their operational efficiency was further demonstrated by an increase in transported volumes to 20.9 billion RTK, spearheaded by the North Operation. Investments in recurring and expansion projects totaled BRL 1.2 billion, with significant progress noted in the Mato Grosso expansion project, now employing over 4,000 workers in the field.

Positive Grain Market Outlook

The grain market holds promise for Rumo, with expectations for an increase in soybean production in Mato Grosso due to improved agricultural yields and expanded planted areas. Similarly, corn production estimates in Mato Grosso have been updated to reflect higher yields following favorable rainfall. Rumo’s projections for stable production levels further reinforce their optimistic outlook for the grain market.

Updated Financial Guidance

Based on strong first-half results, Rumo has revised their financial guidance for 2024. The updated guidance underscores an anticipated performance driven primarily by robust margins, reinforcing investor confidence in the company’s profitability trajectory. This adjustment reflects their ability to navigate and capitalize on market conditions effectively.

Commitment to Strategic Investments

Rumo’s investment strategy remains consistent with their long-term growth plans. They continue to prioritize strategic projects such as the Paulista obligations and the first stage of the Mato Grosso extension project slated for 2026. The recent agreement with CHS for the new terminal in Santos further exemplifies their disciplined capital approach, focusing on enhancing system-wide growth through partnerships.

Diversified Revenue Streams

Rumo has leveraged the transportation of various commodities including soybeans, sugar, and fuel, diversifying their revenue streams. Their strategic decision to increase the volume of owned sugar transportation reduced reliance on third-party logistics, improving variable costs and boosting margins. This flexibility in optimizing logistical operations plays a critical role in sustaining their profitability.

Future Prospects and Volume Management

While the South Operation faced volume drops due to adverse weather impacts, the North Operation saw growth driven by multiple commodities. Looking ahead, Rumo remains optimistic about volume recovery and sustaining market share. Operational efficiency and adapting to market transitions, such as shifts between soybean and corn seasons, are pivotal in achieving their volume and profitability targets.

Financial Discipline and Dividend Strategy

Rumo’s disciplined approach to leveraging and investment is reflected in their maintenance of a robust cash position and strategic debt management. Their partnership with CHS minimizes the need for excessive CapEx, aligning with their prudent capital allocation strategy. Despite recent accounting adjustments, they assure that dividend payouts will continue to be governed by their capital structure and investment timelines, maintaining shareholder value amidst operational complexities.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q2

[Operator]

Good morning, and thank you for waiting. Welcome to Rumo's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Presentation. [Operator Instructions] This presentation is being recorded, and simultaneous translation is available by clicking on the Interpretation button at the bottom of the screen.

[Operator Instructions] Before proceeding, we would like to reiterate that forward-looking statements are based on Rumo's Executive Board's beliefs and assumptions and information currently available to the company. These statements may involve risks and uncertainty as they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not materialize. We recommend that you refer to the disclaimer on the second page of the presentation. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Felipe Saraiva, Rumo's Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Saraiva, you may begin your presentation.

[Felipe Saraiva, executive]

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Rumo's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Call.

I will start my presentation with the highlights on Page 3. Once again, we saw the railway leading the transportation of grains in our main markets. Despite all of the challenge of the soybean crop failure in the Midwest and a slower farmer selling compared to the usual, we grew transported volumes, gaining market share in our main operations.

The higher transported volumes along with a 32% increase in yields, boosted our results in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was BRL 2.1 billion, an increase of 48%, and adjusted net income was BRL 721 million, more than 4x the net income we have delivered 1 year ago.

At the end of the quarter, the financial leverage was 1.5x, a lower ratio than the first quarter. In the period, we recorded two nonrecurring events that impacted our results.

The first one is related to the extreme weather events in the Rio Grande do Sul state. We recorded a provision for impairment in the total amount of BRL 2.6 billion. It is important to emphasize that this provision is an accounting adjustment with no cash effect.

The other adjustment was a price addition regarding the sale of the stake of 80% in the terminals T16 and T19 in Santos, according to the SPA signed with CLI in 2022. The amount of BRL 169 million was collected in the second quarter.

Regarding ESG, the major highlight of the quarter was the support actions for the tragedy in the Rio Grande do Sul state. We have assisted the community with donations and logistical support for the distribution of donated items. I invite you all to read our sustainability report and climate change report both released during the second quarter.

Finally, as a subsequent event to the quarter, we announced last week a partnership with CHS to develop a new port facility located in the DP World area in Santos. We are establishing a joint venture with shared control, which will be the venture responsible for the new investment.

We are very pleased to expand our partnership with CHS, our partner in the transshipment operations in the city of Alvorada in the south of Tocantins states. This new partnership is important and strategic for us since it enhances our capital structures and adds a partner with complementary capabilities to the development of this new business.

On Page 4, I present the market share for the quarter. As I have mentioned on the previous page, we saw an increase in our market share in the four main operations highlighted here both in the quarter and year to date figures. I would like to emphasize the increase in market share in Mato Grosso and the Port of Santos, reinforcing our role as the main logistics solution provider for the transportation of agricultural commodities in these markets.

On Page 5, we will talk about operational indicators. The transit time between Rondonopolis and Santos remained flat at 83 hours, although we have increased the transported volumes in the period. The rail dwell time in Santos was 15 hours in the quarter, showing an improvement compared to 1 year ago due to the investments we have deployed and improvements in the management model at the Port of Santos. In energy efficiency, our fuel consumption metric was slightly lower than in the second quarter of last year.

On Page 6, I will present the operational results and volumes. The transported volume increased by 2.5%, reaching 20.9 billion RTK in the quarter. The North Operation has led the expansion with volumes 3.5% higher than last year, driven by the transportation of soybeans, soybean meal, sugar and fuel.

In the South Operation, the drop in volumes is directly related to the tragedy caused by extreme weather events in the Rio Grande do Sul state. The railway denominated Tronco Sul, a railway stretch between the three states in the region, is shut down for an indefinite period, impacting the transportation flow of fuels and industrial products. On Page 7, we will highlight revenues and yields. The margin expansion was the major driver of our performance during the quarter. I remember well that this is a result of our capacity commercialization in the second half of last year. The constructive momentum for the logistics market with a high capacity utilization ratio for the major long-haul logistics solutions have resulted in higher yields despite the lower fuel costs. We have recorded an increase of 32% in our consolidated yield with an expansion across the board.

In Page 8, we will see the EBITDA in the quarter. The increase in contribution margin, driven by higher volumes and yields was the main lever for the EBITDA growth in the period. The increase in fixed costs and SG&A was offset by the expansion of the contribution margin. This increase is due to the decision of the company to enhance the structures and process to support our strategy for capacity growth, efficiency gains and risk management.

On Page 9, I will present the financial results and net income. Our debt exposure is mainly in floating CDI, the local benchmark. Therefore, as you may see in the chart, the cost of our net debt has been reducing since the third quarter of 2023 when the monetary easing cycle has begun in Brazil.

The adjusted net income in the quarter was BRL 721 million, more than 4x the figure we have presented 1 year ago. The improvement was driven by the better operating performance in the quarter.

On Page 10, I will present our debt profile. We have deleveraged in the quarter with a financial leverage ratio of 1.5x at the end of the period. Our cash position was enhanced with a new issuance of local debentures in the quarter, the total amount of BRL 700 million in two series.

The first one in the total amount of BRL 550 million has a maturity in 10 years and a cost of swap of 99.8% of the CDI. The second one has a total amount of BRL 150 million, maturity in 15 years and a cost of swap of 101.5% of the CDI. The new debenture with a competitive cost really close to the Brazilian sovereign strengthens our strategy to maintain a robust liquidity profile with a strong cash position and well-distributed maturities over the upcoming years.

On Page 11, we will look at the investments made in the quarter. We have invested BRL 1.2 billion in the quarter, including BRL 418 million in recurring investments, BRL 301 million in the expansion project in Mato Grosso and BRL 457 million in other expansion projects. We are on track with the plan for the period.

In the Mato Grosso expansion project, we have made a significant progress in mobilizing the railway infrastructure works. Currently, there are more than 4,000 workers on the field. We will continue to see this trend of accelerated spending for the project as physical construction ramps up.

Now let's move to an update of our review for the grain market, starting on Page 12 with soybeans. For soybeans, the main highlight is our initial outlook for the upcoming crop. We expect an increase in soybean production in the state of Mato Grosso, mainly due to the return to historical levels of agricultural yields in the region after last season crop failure.

We also expect an expansion of planted area in the state, roughly 200,000 hectares, driven by a more attractive farmer profitability based on three key factors: first one, depreciation of the BRL; second, better exchange rates for raw materials; and lastly, higher productivity.

Now on Page 13, we will look at the core outlook. Corn production estimates in Mato Grosso in the current crop was updated upwards, reaching 50 million tons. The good level of rainfall in the region increased the agricultural yield of the current crop. As we expect for soybeans, there could be also some level of expansion in planted area for corn in the next season, which could sustain a production level flat year-on-year.

Now let's move to Page 14 to review the guidance for the year. Last night, we have released a material fact updating our guidance for the fiscal year 2024. The new estimates are based on the actual results in the first half of the year and our forecast for the second one. The strong performance of margins is the main highlight, raising our expectations for EBITDA in the current year.

I have finished my presentation, and we are available for the Q&A session. Thank you.

[Operator]

We will now begin the Q&A session. Joining us today are Mr. Rafael Bergman, Mr. Gustavo Marder, and Mr. Felipe Saraiva. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Mr. Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs.

[Bruno Amorim, analyst]

Congratulations on your results. Could you comment on the outlook for your CapEx over the next 2 years? Obviously, operating results are going strong. You've just revised your guidance upwards. So I'd like to hear about the base case, what are the main projects looking forward? Obviously, there's the expansion in Mato Grosso, which is a large part of the investment. But I'd just like to understand that if in the margin, these stronger results will unlock more space for more investments, or if you'll be generating more cash than you had predicted initially.

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Bruno, thank you for your question. This is Rafael. Bruno, we have a very clear and well-defined pipeline when it comes to the investments we've been making and the investments we will be making. So my first message is that there have been no changes when it comes to that.

Obviously, the main blocks are investment to do with our Paulista obligations because we need to create more capacity in that very strategic route. We have the first stage of the Mato Grosso extension project, which should begin at the beginning of 2026. And we also have recurring investments to keep the operation both efficient and safe. So that will be progressing with the company's capacity and always seeking to increase efficiency over time.

I think the main update when it comes to that, even though it's no surprise to anyone, is that in March, we announced the new grains and fertilizer terminal in the DP World area of the Port of Santos in March. And back in March, we had already shared with you that we had the intention of bringing in a partner.

So we were very happy to be able to announce that we signed the agreement with CHS. They are one of our key partners, as Felipe mentioned in the presentation. So that attests to the company's capital discipline, which it will continue to have regardless of whether the outlook looks more constructive or not.

We're very clear about the company's priorities. And we've also been showing, not only through this partnership, but others, the role that Rumo can play in bringing in more investments into the system as a whole. We know there's a lot of work to be done.

We know that it's quite a responsibility, but it is comforting to see that we are a credible partner and that we can help the system as a whole to grow, whether it be the port terminal as well as other parts of the logistical system, as we've done in the past like in transshipment terminals, for instance.

[Bruno Amorim, analyst]

If I could ask a follow-up question. You had BRL 2.1 billion in the first half, and the guidance for the year, means you've more than double that. So I'd just like to hear a bit about the CapEx in the second semester or do you think it's going to be less than that. And will that be delaying any of your projects in the portfolio?

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Bruno, we have one relevant project which is ramping up now, and that's the Mato Grosso project. I think in the second quarter, we have shown that it speeded up. Right now, we are in the labor mobilization peak. So we have over 4,000 employees, 1,300 pieces of equipment out in the field. So now looking into that effort, we'll have more CapEx to keep our plan to conclude the first terminal in 2026.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mr. Alberto Valerio from UBS.

[Alberto Valerio, analyst]

My question is about your cost, it looks great. Congratulations on the results for this quarter. So there was a difference between fixed costs which went up by 20%, if I'm not wrong, and variable costs which went down in the quarter despite -- well, not despite, but considering the increase in volume of 3%. I mean, it's not that significant but it does have an effect. So have there been any changes in the cost reallocation? Or what happened that led to that change, one going up and the other one going down year-on-year?

[Gustavo da Rosa, executive]

Alberto, this is Marder. So let's start with fixed cost. In line with what we said in previous quarters, fixed costs reflect some structures that the company has implemented to grow in the last few years in new businesses. So I don't think there are any surprises here when it comes to previous quarters.

As for variable costs, there was a reduction because we've been able to increase the volume of own sugar transported when compared to third-party solutions like MRS trucks which are more expensive. So that's why variable costs look better.

It's basically more efficient services when it comes to sugar by using our own logistics rather than third-party logistics, which are more expensive. That's why the variable costs went down in the quarter, which also helps to increase the margin.

[Operator]

The next question is from Ms. Julia Rizzo from Morgan Stanley.

[Julia Rizzo, analyst]

I'd like to hear from you about recent investments in the Port of Santos, a bit more about the new terminals, the partnership with CHS. What does it mean to Rumo? And looking forward, how will it impact results in the sector, generally speaking?

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Julia, this is Rafael. I think we've been working hard to increase capacity in the port as a whole, not only across terminals but also in terms of access to the terminals by using the internal rail at the Port of Santos. And that's a recent development for us. So we have been making significant investments in terms of access, the main one being the Outeirinhos stretch, which allows for considerable efficiency at the terminal that COFCO is developing.

So that's a considerable move which is being implemented by one of our clients. I think that's the main growth lever in terms of capacity that we'll be seen at the port and which will happen very soon, '25, '26 as COFCO has been saying. So that will be important for the system as a whole and obviously for the rail, which is the main mode that will be taking cargo to that terminal. As for the DPW terminal, which is the object of our partnership with CHS, we'll be improving another growth block. On a timeline, it will be a bit further down the line. We're still licensing it but we're very optimistic about it. But the project focuses on mid-term capacity. It's also quite significant because at the end of the day, the Port of Santos is strategic, especially when it comes to China and Asia.

And also when it comes to our -- to the investments we've been making in rail, we're investing in Paulista to increase capacity along that route. And over time, we've been also making investments in origination. The Mato Grosso extension project itself has an element of increasing competitiveness, but it also allows for an expansion in origination for us. That's why it's so key to us, and that's why we made the decision to take that first step. Although we don't necessarily see ourselves as the 100% owners of terminals, and our track record shows that we recycle assets. If we can drive the project initially and then bring in a partner, I mean, that's a key role to play. And I think we've been successful in doing that. So in the quarter, to be honest, it's something that we're very happy about because we're focusing on delivering results for the year, focusing on this first block of growth with the Outeirinhos stretch and the first stage of the Mato Grosso extension project. But we're here for the mid- and the long terms as well. So we're very happy to be able to do all that and to share it with you.

[Julia Rizzo, analyst]

Could you remind me how much that will unlock? What kind of volume gains are we talking about with the Outeirinhos stretch and COFCO in 2026? And also what will be possible with DPW as of '28, I think?

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

The STS11 terminal is about 11 million tons in terms of capacity. So obviously, part of that will be grains, part of that will be sugar, but it's more capacity to the system as a whole. So when you use different systems -- different terminals in the system, you increase capacity, and a large part of that will be coming from Mato Grosso, Goiás, so you multiply that by the distance.

And that will give you the estimate in terms of RTK for a large part of that terminal. There will be an increase in capacity from '25 to '26, and the Outeirinhos loop line will increase efficiency and access. In fact, I'd say that without the loop line, the terminal would not have that capacity. I think that's the rationale.

And the terminal that we have in partnership with CHS in DPW, we're talking about 8 million tons of grains and about 3 million tons of receiving fertilizers. So that's -- there's a key cargo, there's a lot of opportunities to grow in fertilizers because we're still operating with empty cars on the way back. So we can gain significant value from fertilizers.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mr. Lucas Marquiori from BTG Pactual.

[Lucas Marquiori, analyst]

My question is about the impairment in the quarter when it comes to the South network. Could you explain the volume? So 2-point-something billion for a project, could you explain that magnitude, please?

I know that one thing might not have anything to do with the other. But that value recovery test will have what kind of impact on the renegotiation of the network once it's matured or during the renewal process when it begins to be negotiated? I'm just trying to understand all the moving parts.

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Lucas, this is Rafael. Okay. So we had mentioned the operating impact of the tragedy that took place in Rio Grande do Sul. And in Rio Grande do Sul, we do have a couple of risks. The grains in the center of the Rio Grande do Sul state until the port and liquids and industrial products, which have to do with Tronco Sul, which connects Rio Grande do Sul and Parana. So to begin with, both stretches were affected, but the team was highly efficient in resuming the stretch that was possible, which was the grain stretch. I think we had to suspend operations for about 10 days, and the team really worked hard. But the other stretch suffered considerable structural damages in slope areas. So when we look into the complexity of a potential reconstruction of those stretches, then we are talking about a complex South network renegotiations. So it's not -- we have to make accounting adjustments in the balance sheet that will reflect the complexity and the timeline without a potential renewal if it doesn't happen in order to recover the value of those assets.

Having said that, Lucas, the accounting debate is not associated to the regulatory debate. So the fact that we have made an impairment provision doesn't mean that we're not interested in continuing with the potential renewal. Negotiations are ongoing, but the accounting matter increases the complexity of the process. That's all there is to it.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mr. Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan.

[Guilherme Mendes, analyst]

Congratulations on a great quarter. My question is about prices for 2025. I know that we don't have a formal guidance for 2025. But now that you've published the list and negotiations for next year are beginning, if you could help me think about a base scenario in terms of negotiation. And how have you been feeling about the volumes that are being negotiated for next year with the trading companies?

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

This is Rafael again. I hope you understand that, unfortunately, we can't disclose any details about our trading strategy in the best interest of our shareholders. But what I can say, first of all, is that the fundamentals of the transportation market continues to be very constructive.

Also considering that crop yields are looking more positive, as Felipe said in the presentation, you know that we have been seeking to find a fair value for our service in terms of capacity, safety, security, consistency, and we've been successful in doing that, and seeking a fair value for our service continues to be our priority. So that won't change. As for the trading pace and how those conversations will take place, will be a result of how those assumptions align for next year and the pursuit for fair value. We're not in a rush to negotiate. Conversations will take place in their own time. They are already happening and it's a very natural process for us. And I'd just like to reiterate that we're very optimistic about our thesis and also for next year.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mr. Gabriel Rezende from Itau BBA.

[Gabriel Rezende, analyst]

A quick follow-up question about the variable and fixed cost breakdown, please. The benefits you had in the second quarter from depending less on third-party transportation of sugar, do you think that will continue over the next few quarters and years? Should we be considering that more efficient dynamics we saw in the second quarter and apply that to our modeling?

[Gustavo da Rosa, executive]

Gabriel, this is Gustavo Marder. That is an optionality. We must always remember that when we transport more grains, there is less room to transport additional sugar. So increase in profitability can come from either using more rail space to transport grain, which is usually more profitable.

And when there are windows of opportunity, you can use the rail logistics infrastructure to transport more sugar and avoid paying third-party -- for third-party services. So you have to read between the lines. But the positive margins will tend to continue. So it's not a one-off event, but it is an optionality of the company to be able to move from one thing to the other to increase our margins.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mr. Victor Mizusaki from Bradesco BBI.

[Victor Mizusaki, analyst]

Congratulations on your results. I have a question about the balance sheet, please. In the second quarter, your cash position is BRL 9.4 billion. Long-term debt, net debt over EBITDA, looking good at about 1.5x. So you're deleveraging. But looking at the impairment, you had some loss which makes it difficult to pay out dividends.

So my question is, what is the strategy for that cash? Are you getting ready to potentially have a bid for Ferroeste? Or on the other hand, looking at the DPW project, now that you signed a partnership with CHS, you won't need as much CapEx? So if you could comment on your cash strategy and what Rumo's plan is for that, that would be great.

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Thank you for the question, Victor. First of all, in terms of liquidity, our liquidity strategy has been to keep a robust cash position to deal with our commitments and good risk management. So we've been using access to the debt market to try and make the most of opportunities to optimize costs.

So what we did was to be able to pay it for another debt earlier, which were in two tranches, '26, '27 at a higher cost. So that type of initiative will continue to happen because we have a more competitive cost for the new debt.

As for leveraging, that is a reflection of our discipline and the fact that we're always seeking profitability. We're very happy with how things have progressed, and I think that reiterates our trust in our investment plan which is based on the priorities I have already mentioned when I answered the previous question. The fact that we have a healthier leverage ratio doesn't change our investment priorities.

We have no new investments, we're not looking at any new investments. Right now, we're highly focused on delivering the projects that we've already announced. We're always looking at potential partners because we're looking for partners that can be complementary. So it's not just about capital allocation. Our partnership with CHS has made us very happy because of the profile of the partner that will add value to the business. As for the balance sheet, we do have accumulated profit reserves, earnings reserves. So the fact that we've posted a negative accounting result right now doesn't affect our plan or strategy in terms of compromising investment or paying out dividends. So paying out dividends is based on the company's capital structure and our investment plan timeline. So those are conversations we have periodically, but there have been no changes because of anything that's happened this quarter.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mr. Filipe Nielsen from Citi.

[Filipe Ferreira Nielsen, analyst]

Congratulations on your results. My question, looking at how you've reviewed the guidance, there's been a slight reduction in volume levels in terms of the previous load balance. And the EBITDA has been well above previous levels. So I'd like to hear from you. You were highly solid at the beginning of the year. You had some predictability in terms of what the year would be like in terms of profitability.

Were there any unexpected positive factors that led to these much higher profits even though volumes dropped to closer to the previous load balancing level? So I just wanted to understand this relationship between the EBITDA and the volume and the guidance.

[Gustavo da Rosa, executive]

Filipe, this is Marder. So let's start with volumes. Yes, we did review the guidance. And volumes consider essentially our performance this quarter and the fact that Tronco Sul, especially in the South Operation, will continue to be out of service in the second semester. So that will lead to some reduction in volume. So that's very clear when it comes to volume.

As for margins, as we have reiterated in this conference call, even though yields are negotiated ahead of time, clients do have the option to negotiate which route they'll be using to perform, that volume where there will be more in Goiás or Mato Grosso, whether the origination will be closer or further from Rondonopolis.

So there are some elements which are out of the company's control because they come from prefixed lists. Our guidance for yields reflects the behavior we've been seeing from our clients in terms of performed volume and origination.

Contracts had been negotiated, but when the company realized that volume performances meant volumes would have been different to what we had planned, that means we go over the guidance to make sure it reflects the profitability levels we expect not only for the second half of the year, but for the beginning of 2025 as well.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mr. Rogério Araújo from Bank of America.

[Rogério Araújo, analyst]

Congratulations. I have a couple of questions, please. First, could you give some more color on if the Tapajos River dries up again this year, what the implications will be for Rumo? There wasn't much of a carryover inventory or an impact on volumes in the off-season for Rumo. So what would you expect from that kind of scenario?

And the second question is about the South Network. First, what do you mean by renewal? Will it be something similar to what you did in the Paulista network or will it be different? And if it's similar, what would be the advantage of that renewal considering that it's so close to the due date.

And still on the South Network. I just wanted to clarify whether there's a need to return that operating stretch at the end of the concession at Malha Sul and whether you have the CapEx structure and if it's 100% rebalanceable? And if so, how you would do it? I'm just trying to understand the details of what you're thinking for the South Network.

[Gustavo da Rosa, executive]

This is Marder. Well, lots of questions. I'll try and answer all of them. Let's start with the Tapajos River. We don't really talk about the position of other logistics. Especially when we look at the market and considering a pickup of yield in Mato Grosso, we still see a short market for logistics over the next few years.

And that's what supports our vision that the market will continue to be positive for transportation. Now how clients will use the different solutions is up to them. It's not up to the company to comment on that.

As for the South Network, I think that in line with what we've been saying in the last few conference calls, that's quite an old network. It does have its challenges. And in the best interest of shareholders, the company is talking to the government to find a sustainable way to make that business minimally sustainable looking forward. There are no simple solutions, it will take time, and the company continues pursuing an opportunity to renew it and to create value for our shareholders.

As for the stretch you mentioned, recovering that stretch would not be quick. As Rafael said, there are some slope areas, some complex areas that would require a detailed study to recover them. And as per our contract, that will trigger a force majeure event in our contract with entity.

So that conversation will take a long time, and that's why our unpredictable timeline in terms of when that recovery will take place, if it does take place, there is no obligation to return that stretch because of the force majeure clause. So when the time is right, we'll be talking to the regulatory agency about how that recovery will take place.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Mr. Lucas Barbosa from Santander.

[Lucas Barbosa, analyst]

Congratulations. My question is about investments in the Port of Santos. There's quite a lot to be concluded in the next few months. How are you doing in terms of timing? Whether -- were any of the projects more challenging? Or is everything on track when it comes to when they're going to be delivered? I just want to make sure that the projects are on time.

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Lucas, this is Rafael. Investments that are being made in the Port of Santos don't really involve any engineering complexity. They just have to be scheduled right. So the main one being the loop line for the new terminal with COFCO. So that is on track.

And in terms of the execution of the loop line, I think we have been quite successful in terms of planning the execution because part of that needs to be in line with the existing operation. There haven't been any issues. And at the end of last year, we made the most of a window where there was less volume to do some work.

So the execution is on track. We're quite happy with how it's been going on, and it's very strategic. So we're hoping that it happens as quickly as possible so that we can unlock even more capacity.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mr. Filipe Nielsen from Citi.

[Filipe Ferreira Nielsen, analyst]

If we can go back to volumes, I'm talking about volumes in July, what were the main drivers? In the South, it's clear there have been lots of problems. But what about in the North? Growth was below expected. So were there any one-off events? And how do you see that volume looking forward? Was there any farmer selling affecting volumes in July? I'm just trying to understand what happened to the volume you reported last month.

[Gustavo da Rosa, executive]

Filipe, this is Marder. That's a very natural thing for us, Filipe. There's always a transition from soybean to corn. So that's the crop change from the first half of the year to the second half of the year. And terminals have to get ready for that transition. So often, even though terminals are not being used at the Port of Santos, they're still not ready to receive corn because they still have residual soybean inventories.

Sometimes that happens in July, sometimes it happens in June. But historically speaking, it's perfectly normal and shouldn't continue looking forward. We don't think that's a market issue. As Felipe has shown, we have been increasing market share. Our contract levels with clients is very satisfactory. So the main challenge for us is to continue to execute on them and over the next few months. And our guidance shows precisely that. We expect volumes to get better.

[Operator]

The Q&A session is now concluded. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Rafael Bergman for his closing remarks.

[Rafael Bergman, executive]

Thanks, everyone, for joining us on this teleconference. I'd like to share -- to thank our shareholders for their trust, and we'll see you at the earnings release conference call for the next quarter. Thank you.

[Operator]

Rumo's Second Quarter 2024 Conference Call is now concluded. Thank you for joining us.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]