Petro Rio SA

BOVESPA:PRIO3

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q4

[Jose Costa, executive]

Good day, everyone. Welcome to PRIO's last quarter conference call. I am Jose Gustavo, IR and Treasury Manager, and I'll be the host of this event. The presentation and comments on the results on the PRIO IR website. We also have an interpreter for simultaneous translation, please choose the sound channel icon on the bottom of your Zoom screen.

Presentation and comments on the results will be presented by the CEO of PRIO, Roberto Monteiro; our CFO, Milton Rangel; and our COO, Francisco Francilmar. They will present the company's results and will then be available during the Q&A. [Operator Instructions] This event is being recorded and will be available on PRIO's Investor Relations website.

Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements that might be made during this conference call relative to the company's business outlook, projections and operating and financial goals are based on the beliefs and assumptions of PRIO's management and on information currently available. Forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of success. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions as they relate to future events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur.

Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Petro Rio and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I'll turn the floor to Roberto Monteiro, our CEO.

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our earnings video conference call to discuss Q4 '22 results. I will start the call as always by going over some highlights of the quarter and obviously, the full year of 2022. Then I'll turn the floor to Francilmar, who will speak about the operational side of the business and then Milton to speak about the financials, and then I will come back.

Well, the year of 2022 was a great year for Petro Rio, another great year for Petro Rio, together with oil prices that were higher than those recorded in previous years. We also had a strong operating performance. All of that together let us to break a number of records for the company. We are talking about revenue, EBITDA, net income as well as lifting cost. I believe one of the big stars in Q4 was our lifting cost of $8.6 per barrel, the lowest ever recorded. The average for the year was also the lowest ever posted.

So these 2 things together enabled Petro Rio to post a great result. Parallel to that, we were also very successful in some other events. We were very successful in the Frade campaign. I'd like to remind you that we drilled ODP4, and we're very successful with initial production way above our expectations. That will led us to start the second phase of the Frade campaign.

The second phase of the Frade campaign also exceeded our expectations as we saw recently in our material fact of today actually with the production of this first well of the second phase. We were also very successful in the acquisitions front. We were able to complete and in sign the Albacora deal. We managed to integrate Dommo and to buy a drilling rig, which gives us a lot of flexibility for our portfolio of projects. We were also able to finalize or at least submit to ANP, the Itaipu deal. The Itaipu is another field located more to the north.

On the social front, we continue to contribute to society -- to give back to society. Along the year, we implemented Reação Offshore, a project that makes us very proud. We trained 240 people and hired 80 of them. And most of these people were assigned to offshore work. And through a model of mixing these people with our old-timers, we were able to populate the platform of Albacora last year.

We had a very successful transition and a very successful startup of production. This Albacora production started in January. Parallel to that, we continue to look very carefully at our people at the company. And we are finally publishing our first sustainability report, which should come out in this first quarter, perhaps by the end of March or perhaps a little later. But anyway, it's quite at an advanced stage.

Now moving to the next slide, please. I'd like to underscore some things I already mentioned. Again, the main highlight is the lifting cost, $8.6 in the quarter, $10.7 per barrel for the full year 2022. So a very strong result. Another important item to take into account is production. We started 2022 in January with 30,000 barrels a day or a little over that. We see the average for Q1 35,000. We ended with 47,600. And now, of course, after the first well of the second phase of the Frade campaign and after Albacora, we are starting to get close to -- just these days, we had a record mark of production. We're getting close to 80,000 barrels a day.

So the company had practically 100% increase from 47,000 in Q4. And of course, this is an average, increasing to 80,000. It was just 1 day that we reached that number. But the idea is to trend this 1 day into an average of production. This is our struggle. This is our focus. Well then, this was a very strong year, and we have started Q1 '23 very strong. Another highlight is our cash position. We ended the year with BRL 1.8 billion. Of course, a good part of this cash has been already invested in the acquisition of Albacora in January.

When we have the closing of Albacora, a good part of this cash was used to conclude the deal. So I'll turn the floor to Francilmar, who will speak about the operational side. And in the end, I'll come back more at the end to speak a little about ESG and the company's next steps. Thank you very much.

[Francilmar Fernandes, executive]

Hello, everyone. Thank you, Roberto. I will start on Slide 5 with the performance of the assets. While the year was indeed transformational for the company, I'm going to focus on production here on this table. We can see here that Frade Field was indeed the big winner of the year, a game changer. We started Q1 and along 2021 with an average of around 15,000 barrels and producing the last quarter of last year, more than 30,000 barrels. So we more than doubled production at the field. So we started with 30,000 barrels in the beginning of last year, increasing to 47,000 barrels. Production of the whole company was up practically 50% through project development, execution of deepwater projects and so on.

With that, this helped quite a lot to reduce the lifting cost, and I'll speak more about that. What matters to us is the evolution through organic projects carried out by the company. Now on Slide 6, let's detail the lifting costs a little more. As always, it is a big goal of the company to have the best cost possible so we can be very resilient. So we can deal with volatility and uncertainties of the market.

What is under our control, we will try to do our best always. This quarter, we reached the lowest lifting cost ever. In the coming quarters, there should be some variation and some pressure up because we're taking over a new field that has a cost. Until it settles, we'll have to invest more to ensure safety and greater reliability, but we will always pursue working with the lowest lifting costs. And this is the level that we like to work with.

And moving to Slide 7, I will give you more detail on Frade Field. Along the year, the big highlight was the drilling campaign. I'll give you more details specifically about the revitalization of Frade. The vessel itself operated really well. In the quarter, efficiency of the unit of the FPSO was very good. What hurt us here was basically well MUP3A. We have put it into production. But -- and due to mechanical problems of the completion system, we had to stop production.

This well is now in maintenance as we speak. So we are losing production of around 2,500 barrels and this is hurting our efficiency. Since here at Petro Rio, we calculate production efficiency in terms of expected production versus actual production. Since this well is losing about 2,500 barrels, it ends up hurting this number a little, which I believe that in a month or in a little over a month, we will have solved this problem.

Now on Slide 8, I would like to detail the Frade Revitalization Plan a little further. Indeed, this changed the company's level of execution capacity, and the results are indeed very good, which will generate more work in the future. To detail this further, we ended the whole first phase. Still last year, we put 2 wells into production with 2 injection wells. After producing wells, ODP4 continues to do really well. It is the highest producing well at the field with stable production and pressure levels.

MUP3A had this problem that I mentioned, and we are working to recover it. Now we have a rig, they're repairing it and will work so that in the next 30 to 60 days, we can have it back on. The injectors are working really well, and we are starting to see the first signs of pressure, improving the reservoir on the other sides, and this is going to improve the decline curve of the reservoirs and give us a little more confidence for the future.

Well, the second phase was started. Just like in the first one, we were able to bring the second phase forward quite a lot and reduced costs. So we started the second phase to producing wells have been drilled. We are finishing the drilling of the injector. I believe that in another 30 to 60 days, this well should be done, and we would start its installation phase. This well will provide support to the ODP4 reservoir, which will help stabilize things more and prolong this level of production and pressure.

All of the new producing wells, one started production just this past weekend. This well was a positive surprise. We are disclosing its production now, and it will help us even more at this well, MUP5 can be seen in the schematic on the right, which is a longitudinal view of the field. This well is in this first reservoir in the upper part, which is the biggest reservoir in the field. It accounts for almost 50%, almost 500 million barrels, showing that this is a reservoir that has yet more potential than we had imagined.

So all the results we collected in the first and second phases will be inputs that will use to study and to understand better. The reservoirs are known to us. On the schematic on the right, these yellow parts are the current reservoirs, which are in production. So several of these reservoirs and wells that we put into production showed very positive results, which gives us an indication that there are many more areas here with a much bigger and better potential to be tapped into. So we already have a task for us working to detail and draft a new plan of some new wells to be drilled.

On the left, to discuss this third phase that is being considered, we have a schematic view of Frade Field. These colorful figures, these polygrams called and so on. These are prospects. They are not reservoirs in production. These prospects have a production potential. They have the same age. They are in similar regions to the ones that we have in production. So we are at an advanced stage of study. And along this year, 2023, we intend to drill a well to investigate at least 2 of these prospects. And perhaps we might extend this even a little more.

But overall, we are collecting information observed in the known reservoirs, and we will investigate these new prospects a little more. So we still have a third phase that is today What is not certain is the exact number of wells. So in principle, it will happen after Frade Field -- I mean, after Wahoo Field so in the second half of 2024.

What can happen and will always for this as always is to bring forward some of this so that we can have the right resources, i.e., equipment, raw materials, subsea materials to connect these wells. In a nutshell, the first and second phases of Frade Revitalization were very successful. We collected a lot of promising information so that we can make sure that this will -- that there will be a third phase. In the future, I will explain how this will happen in more detail.

Now let's go ahead to Slide 9. I'll speak about the performance of TBMT and Polvo Fields. In 2022, these fields performed really well in terms of stability with no great investments. So this was a matter of natural decline. But in the last quarter, we did have a big hiccup. We had stoppage of 2 wells. One due to an ESP problem, an electric submersible pump that failed. And the other due to an electric subsea failure. We are working to repair these wells. They haven't returned to production yet, but in the next 30 to 45 days, these wells should be back in production.

And along 2023, we'll try to have at least 1 more well at Polvo to offset this decline and to maintain a level of production at the field during the year. So that's about it for Polvo and TBMT at this point. Now moving to Slide 10 to talk about Wahoo Field. The field is in a development phase. So all equipment and large items have been commissioned, are being manufactured, and we are now in a follow-up process so that all of the deadlines and prices are complied with. We continue to see the field keen to start production by end of Q1, perhaps stretching to the beginning of the second quarter.

And we are focused to keep to the schedule as planned. The next steps that are the most important would be obtaining the environmental licenses, both for drilling and tieback. The process is quite advanced at IBAMA. And we believe that sometime this year, we'll get this approval to continue with our campaign. The drilling phase is scheduled to begin in the second half. The rig is being mobilized, Hunter Queen. The drilling rig that we acquired is being mobilized to Brazil. It will go through a final maintenance and should be mobilized to the field most likely in July.

By year-end in December, we'll start launching the subsea lines. So this is Wahoo, no big concern here, everything is moving ahead as planned. Slide 11, I will give you more details about the Albacora Leste Field. As you all know, we acquired the field in the end of January, meaning that the ship has been in operation for nearly 1 month. Things are moving according to our expectations. So there is a large task force working to improve the reliability of the equipment, operating efficiency.

And this is -- this basically involves the maintenance work in several areas of the vessel from the bridge house, to the cabins, to improve the quality and working conditions of workers as well as in the operating structures like energy generating systems, compression, water injection and several other areas. We are working hard to improve maintenance, and I insist that we to improve reliability. And as a result, we will also improve efficiency. This is part of our plan.

We have a large budget to spend in the next 12 to 18 months. And in the next few months, we will have more results from this activity. So we know that the beginning is difficult. There is nothing easy, but we believe that our team is very knowledgeable and they know what to do. And I'm sure we will work hard to deliver to our expectations. At the same time, we are also working in subsea and wells to repair subsea structures, not only it's important to report subsea and wells. But throughout the year, we will do that. We are now in the process of detailing and also acquiring the materials necessary for the job.

In the next quarters, we will give you an update on the most recent developments. The field is performing at the same efficiency level as before when it was with Petrobras. We haven't been able yet to make any major changes. But we need a few more months until we can see some significant efficiency improvements. With that, I conclude my part of the presentation. Thank you so very much for the support and hard work from our partners and suppliers that allowed us to post these good results in 2022, and we remain confident in 2023, there is a lot to be done. Now I'll turn the floor to Milton.

[Milton Rangel, executive]

Thank you, Francilmar. Good afternoon, everyone. Continuing our presentation and talking about the financial performance on Slide 12. The fourth quarter of '22 reported a drop in total revenue when compared to the fourth quarter of '21 and even compared to some quarters of '22. And this is basically explained by our decision to halt our sales in this first quarter. At the end of the year, we saw the worsening of the freight in oil and trading market, discounts were higher. So we decided to store 2 million barrels in the Caribbean to avoid selling the oil in this adverse scenario.

So we only sold 2.3 million barrels in the fourth quarter of '22, and this led to a drop in revenue. This was a strategic decision that we made that proved to be assertive because the market in the beginning of the year has improved when compared to the proposals we received last year. We decided to break down the line of trading operations for managerial purposes to explain our numbers a little bit better.

In fact, these are just expenses related to this trading activity of oil trading. And in the case of this quarter, we posted this cost with storage of the barrels that I mentioned before. And as of now, with a larger company and a much larger volume of barrels traded much larger than what we had last year, it's just natural that we now anticipate several trending -- trading revenues that will be explained further in the coming quarters. We come from this total revenue. We have these trading expenses. And then we get into this FOB, or free onboard revenue, which relates to direct sales to our FPSO, allowing us to run comparisons with previous quarters, considering that now we have more freedom to carry on non-FOB sales as well.

So $174 million in the quarter, in line with the expectation related to the reduction of barrels sold in the quarter. Result of operations, $129 million, and EBITDA of $168 million, much driven by this line of other operating expenses, which is just an accounting adjustment due to the impressive production level at Frade of the ODP4 well. We had gains in the recognition of Frade's abandonment NPV because as ODP4 increase production, these abandonment was extended by a few years what explains the lower NPV, and the impact of this reduction is reflected in these other revenues.

But when we look at the adjusted EBITDA, excluding the accounting and nonrecurring events, our adjusted EBITDA stood at USD 116 million with a margin of 67% in the quarter. Net income in the quarter was $189 million.

Therefore, when we look year-to-date, we are looking at a total revenue of approximately $1.250 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $900 million with a margin of 73%, therefore showing a very robust operating result, with net income of $711 million, up 193% when compared to the annual net income of 2021.

Now moving on to Slide 13, where we talk about the company's funding. Looking at a snapshot of the end of the year, our cash position was quite robust, higher than USD 1.8 billion. Our amortization schedule was very dilutive. We have some working capital debt maturing in 2023, '24. And we also have an international bond of $600 million maturing in 2026. In addition, we have 2 series of local debentures that were swapped in full into U.S. dollars.

So these liabilities are now visible in U.S. dollars. The amortization will occur in the next few years, and it is very much concentrated in the period after 2027. So this is a very comfortable situation in terms of liability, amortization for the next coming years. And this cash position has already dropped after the fourth quarter of '22 due to known events related to the acquisition closing of Albacora Leste and the acquisition of Dommo Eneriga when we use a good part of this cash.

But for the end of the year, we can see a company with an average debt cost of 5.8% in dollars, a very competitive rate considering the size of our business and the world as it is now quite stressed in terms of interest rates abroad and also in Brazil and a duration of 3.17. This is also another comfortable number considering the amount of investments we have in our short-term pipeline.

Now moving to Slide 14, the evolution of net cash. We show our position from Q3 '22 to 4Q '22 starting with $255 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $117 million. There was also a very positive impact from working capital, basically related to a reduction of receivables. We received cash from a series of uptakes that came in the fourth quarter. And in terms of CapEx, there was a relevant cash disbursement, basically referring to Frade's CapEx that is now in the second phase and also some coming from Yahoo's CapEx. We have some commitments during the year. So financial -- some financial aspects, tax and that leads us to a net cash in the fourth quarter '22 of $381 million.

Moving on now to Slide 15. We see the evolution of net debt or net cash over adjusted EBITDA for the last 12 months. As we just saw, we are a net cash company. And looking at the end result of 4Q '22, our position stood at $380 million and a negative leverage of minus 0.4 because we are a net cash company. Therefore, everything is absolutely under control, despite this cash disbursement in early 2023 we will see that -- we will see that in our next quarterly result.

But even then, we still have a large financial discipline, our leverage level is low, and this will allow us to meet our future commitments. With that, I will turn the floor over to Roberto, who will talk about ESG and also about the next steps of the company. Thank you all very much.

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Thank you, Milton. I will talk a little bit about ESG, and then I will refer to our next steps. In terms of the ESG aspect, I would like to start with sustainability because this is something new to us. We are finally drafting our sustainability report to be published between March and April most likely. And the report shows how Petro Rio deals with environmental issues, social issues and so forth.

I just have a number for you as a spoiler of the report, and that is about our carbon footprint. I think it has been a very interesting work, and you will remain an interesting subject in the future because we've been consistently reducing our carbon footprint. Our average in 2021 was 31.4 kilograms of CO2 per barrel, and our average in 2022 was already 26.8 kilograms of CO2 per oil barrel produced. And this number, I can assure you, is already much lower than the 26.8 mentioned before.

So all the work we do in terms of operating efficiency on the one hand is economically feasible. And on the other hand, it's also environmentally feasible. And you will be able to see that quite well once you read our sustainability report. The second item that I would like to draw your attention to is the Reação Offshore. As I said at the beginning, we trained 240 people, of which 80 were hired by us and the remaining people could work in the offshore area, be it in Petro Rio or some other company in the industry.

Therefore, we are somehow contributing to society. And certainly, we continue to boost all of the other projects with which we have been consistently working with like Todos na Luta, Irmã Dulce, Favela Brass, et cetera, there are several projects. And we also continue to look inwards to our own company, our employees. We increasingly pursue our internal activities like running, tracking, physical therapy, shiatsu, meditation, yoga, all of that, both in our offices in as well as in our offshore units.

Now moving to the last slide that refers to the next steps. This is business as usual. Certainly, we keep a continuous focus on the safety and health of our employees and third parties because our company could not exist without safety and without good health of our employees and also a continuous focus on M&As. These things are part of our DNA. They will always be present. But independently of all of that, the important things that will happen in this next half year are I think in my view more operational.

Today, we have an ongoing campaign in Frade. We already delivered our first well, as we disclosed this morning, with a production of 8,000 barrels a day, and we are about to deliver the second well in Frade most likely by the end of the month or maybe early next month, sometime between the end of March and early April. We are also considering a third phase for Frade. And so these will be our main operating focus.

Another great operating focus will be Albacora Leste. we want to improve the operating efficiency of Albacora Leste. We've had good days. We've had bad days. And certainly, our intention is to always have good days. We are also focusing a lot on that. We are also doing the work over Tubarão Martelo. We will be doing the workover of 2 other wells. And finally, there is the installation of Wahoo. Most part of the items have been acquired, services as well, but we are still in the preparation phase.

But this preparation phase is closely approaching implementation. In the second half of the year, we should start the implementation of Yahoo. There is an entire preparation that will then result in a very successful operation. This will be the main focus for this half year. The delivery of our projects, the operational delivery. I think we've been fulfilling our goal, and this will be our goal.

One last item that has been very much present in this quarter, and I think we already focused that because I think we solved the issue related to the oil inventory. At the end of last year, our inventory was a bit higher than normal. We had 2 million barrels of stored in the Caribbean, but we already sold these 2 million barrels during this first quarter. And therefore, our sales in the first quarter will be very strong, mostly due to these 2 million barrels that we have already recovered.

So we will go from the first to the second quarter with a much lower inventory level when compared to December of last year. Well, that's all. I would like to thank our employees for their resilience and collaboration because once again, they are the ones who make things happen still in line with our Petro Rio culture, and we also mentioned this in our earnings release. We talked about people, results, our boldness and determination before I extend my thanks to all of our employees, the society, all the regulated agencies that work with us during this very lengthy avocado process. And with that, I would like to open for questions. Thank you very much.

[Jose Costa, executive]

[Operator Instructions] We will start with a question sent in writing by Pedro Soares with BTG. Pedro asked about the recent news of the export tax. And he asks about our appetite regarding new acquisitions, and how willing we are to pay dividends or promote buybacks in this context?

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Well, I guess that this is a hard topic, but it's also a very new topic. The reality is that we don't have a lot to say other than what we have seen many of you have seen in terms of reactions on all sides. Our reaction to this new tax. It is our view that charging 10% on our revenue, we can say that it is favorable to investments. Petro Rio was a company that always reinvested. We never paid dividends, we always reinvested our profits in our result in the acquisition of assets in productive assets so that we can increase the life spend of the field to generate jobs and even pay more taxes later on.

So I can't say that this will help our margin and that it will help the company to invest more. Now having said that, our projects are robust. I have always worked with an oil price that was always very conservative when we did our investment analysis because think about great volatility in the oil prices, it has happened in the past in the COVID pandemic. So volatility. We don't have volatility now, but we have this issue.

What we read about is exactly what you read about. Apparently, it is a temporary measure, but we'll have to see how this will evolve is the one in charge of legal and regulatory affairs, do you have anything to add?

[Francilmar Fernandes, executive]

As Roberto said, this is a very new measure, provisional measure that was published just yesterday. I believe that you have all followed very diverse reactions, and we are following this close with the class entities that represent our industry. I think it is too early to have an accurate assessment of what is happening in the next few days and months to see how this will unfold

[Jose Costa, executive]

Next question is from Christian Audi with Santander.

[Christian Audi, analyst]

Do you guys hear me?

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Yes.

[Christian Audi, analyst]

Well, to start, congratulations again. Once again, it is incredible how you can deliver the financial results and the operational results. So congratulations to you and the whole Petro Rio team. I have two quick questions. And one that is more midterm. The two quick questions are, this dynamic that you explained, Roberto, you were able to sell these 2 million barrels. Can you give us an idea about the price -- better prices than what you had in the end of the year?

And the other quick question is, Francilmar spoke about the lifting cost dynamics. Again, congratulations on a record lifting cost of $8.7 per barrel. I just want to get a sense of how you see this -- but this will need to increase, as you mentioned. But I just want to get a sense of what to expect in 2023? And I have a third question, but let's start with these two.

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Indeed, your questions are brief. In December, we are seeing discounts of almost $20 per barrel. So what we look is not just the Brent oil price, it's Brent minus the discount. So in December, we saw the prices were depressed. We got bids of $19 -- as low as $19 of discount. We thought that this was totally out of the reality. So we held back. Now we have built up an inventory and we are selling. We haven't returned to regular levels, regular levels of $3 on average, 2 for Frade for TBMT. Of course, these things vary a little, but it's kind of like that.

We haven't reached that level yet. But we're already talking about sales with a discount below $10, $9, $8, $7. We sold one part at $6. So there's an average, and things are coming down. But I guess that at the end of the day, I think it was a wise decision that we made because the oil price has kind of remained flat. Part of this is being priced in March. Part of that is going to be priced in April. So we don't know, but you see that there was not a great reduction in the oil price.

This would have been priced in January if we had delivered it in December. So we look at the average of January versus the average today and the possible average for March and April. I don't think that we're going to have great problems regarding the brand, and the discounts have improved markedly. They have followed -- they have fallen to half. So in this quarter, we have to zero this and that's why we're going to have very strong sales.

As regards to lifting cost, I think that $8.6 was indeed an excellent mark that we hit. With Albacora, it is normal that this lifting cost will increase a little. We are expecting something around 10 -- a 2-digit number, perhaps between $10 and $11 because Albacora is coming online. We're still getting used to that asset. We are still adapting. There are adjustments to be made in terms of production efficiency and so on and so forth. I don't think that the lifting cost will remain at around $8 or $9. It should be around $10 or $11.

And then obviously, the trend will be to have another drop, particularly with Wahoo. With Albacora and Wahoo, I believe that the lifting cost will be under $8, but this is for next year.

[Christian Audi, analyst]

Great, Roberto. And just to end, the third phase of the Frade campaign, and again congratulations on the results of the second phase of the revitalization of Frade. What about the dynamics here? Can you continue to conduct these studies and at the same time go after Wahoo? Or will you have to choose between the third phase for Frade and Wahoo? Can you elaborate on this dynamic?

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Wahoo and Frade sequential, Christian. The third phase, we had designed it in -- actually, the second -- well, let me start again. The second phase would be after Wahoo. We brought for the whole second phase before Wahoo. And the third phase, we want to try to at least bring it forward, a part of it at least because this is a faster investment. You make an investment and you start adding oil to the system. So we are working on that. But I'll let Francilmar speak about this.

The prospect is well defined. He talked about other prospects. And there is a part related to equipment. Okay. To give you a little more color, as we execute the wells, we have to remember that along first and second phases, we drilled 7 wells. In these wells, we investigated not only the main reservoir but we also tested other horizons, and we got more information. We found oil here, oil there.

And this starts bidding back so that we can put together plans for new wells. We have 1 or 2 kind of in the pipeline, producing wells, perhaps more. The investigation of prospects, that's a different potential. It's not on the table. Every prospect we test. And if we find oil and good oil, that's going to give rise to new wells, 1 or 2, depending on the volume of the discovery. There's another team working in parallel going after the equipment, both for the wells and for the subsea tieback.

So Christian, here, we have to deal with the market to see whether we can get the equipment in time. If we do so, we might bring for the third phase of Frade without hurting the schedule for Wahoo. And since we are improving more and more our tools, our execution and delivering wells faster, we can do that. And what can happen with Wahoo? So if we say, oh, I'm going to add more things before Wahoo, you can delay drilling. Instead of having 4 wells at the same time, 40,000, we can do this in phases.

And this is interesting because we add more oil in the system with Frade. As Francilmar said, we have at least -- we would have at least 2 wells -- producing wells in the third phase. But it's all about the equipment. And the main thing about the equipment is the lines and subsea services. So we are working on that. And I think that there is quite a good possibility there, but we affirm and resilient.

[Christian Audi, analyst]

And my last quick follow-up. Albacora Leste, you mentioned that there are good months.

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

I mentioned good days and bad days.

[Christian Audi, analyst]

Yes, you're right. Good and bad days, kind of volatile. How do you feel now that you have hands on? How do you feel about the potential of improvement during the year? Are you more conservative given what you've seen so far or not? Do you keep the same expectations as before?

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Well, Christian, it's all going as expected. Francilmar said it's almost like a ball. But I think it's quite in keeping with our expectations. Perhaps you can speak more, Francilmar.

[Francilmar Fernandes, executive]

Well, I can give you some more information. Overall, it's all going as expected. We have been working with that unit for a long time in the transition. We had unit -- we had teams at the unit for 6 months, so we could map at all. And now it is a moment of a lot of services. We have dozens of different suppliers and vendors working. So this is the moment of the great reform as we call it. It doesn't really change our expectations. Efficiency gains will appear, and they will be very good.

Will reduce volatility of production? When Roberto said good and bad days, some days, we produce well. Some other days, we don't produce that well, and we want to raise the bar to have more stability in the production of the field. So this is what we expect to deliver in the coming months.

[Jose Costa, executive]

Our next question comes from Gabriel Barra from Citibank.

[Gabriel Coelho Barra, analyst]

Congratulations for your results. In fact, this was a very strong year, both in operating terms and also financial. If you go back to your first point, Roberto, I know it's too soon to get more details about this export tax, not only in financial terms, but also in regulatory terms and all of the uncertainties that it brings to the industry and also in terms of M&A.

So I would like to revisit that subject, especially in regards to the company's future investment plans. First of all, I would like to know whether -- or maybe Emiliano, you can also help with that answer. How was that conversation with the government, whether that conversation took place in terms of the outlook going forward? What can you expect after that 120 days in relation to the export plan of the government or even other policies in to the sector, whether you had that conversation with the government? Could you give us a little bit more color, please, would be very helpful.

And now looking at the operational side and maybe you could talk a little bit about this second producing well at Frade. What kind of productivity should be expected given the fact that there's less wells positively surprised the market? And finally, and I'm sorry to be -- to have such a long question. In terms of trading costs, Milton also talked about the storage costs, et cetera. And does that also include transportation cost of that oil for that 2 million barrels that were storage outside the country?

How will things evolve and also transportation from Brazil to the Virgin Islands? And how would -- what would be the cost per barrel? I know it's difficult for you to give me an annual cost, but if you could probably elaborate a little bit about that will be helpful.

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Well, I'll start with the easier part of the question, which is the cost, and then I'll give the floor to Francilmar. This line, what happens there is that today, we are migrating our trading department, as we call it, because in the past, we only delivered FOB, which was FPSO. We would deliver the oil through FPSO. There was a vessel coming -- I mean, from a trading company, they would take that oil. And at that time, we would do the which is the and goodbye. That was it.

So once the sale was concluded, that was it. We would receive a net amount with a certain discount that already included freight from FPSO onwards. And today, in the first quarter -- and this also relates to our trading strategy because, today, we sell 2.5 million a month, and this is a significant number. And this now generated enough volume to allow us to try out new modalities, whereby we deliver the oil.

So in this first quarter, we already delivered the oil. And with that, we can have more access. We can access the refineries directly. And in the past, that was not the case. We would only access those refineries that could come to pick up the oil. Well, today, we also access refineries that do not have the capacity to pick up the oil. So we deliver the oil to them. And this expanded our breadth of clients. And that's why our pricing is more adjusted. But in practical terms, there are things that we delivered at the FPSO. And there are things that we deliver there at the end.

So we created a line of trading costs. And so this trading costs will also include all of the other costs, transportation, storage and so on. I know that the bottom line can be comparable to a non-FPSO line in terms of how much money we generated. In that fourth quarter, we took to the Caribbean 2 million barrels. We spent about $3, something like that, to take the oil to the Caribbean, and we spent $0.50 a month in storage.

Out of that $9 million, I think numbers gets close to 5. There are some repayments because we signed the storage deal for a longer time. So we allocated a bigger chunk of the fixed part in the fourth quarter. But the cost to take it to the Caribbean is $3.5. It's not that you have $3.5 costs because when you were in the Caribbean, the vessel route is much better. It's not that you lose that $3.5.

And I'm not saying also that you sell for $3.5 and from then on, I have $3.5 of discount. The math is not so linear. I mean you take your oil to a place where you have higher demand. There are more vessels, the routes are better. But in our mind, as much as possible, we do not want to use this part. This is almost like some extra things to comply with that unusual situation we encountered in December. That's not something that we will do all the time. So we want to deliver or FOB. So we want also to sell directly without necessarily having to go that route.

[Milton Rangel, executive]

Okay. Can you -- let me give you a little bit more color. So Gabriel trying to give you more information related to that export tax. As I said, this is a very recent measure. The market just learned about it a day before yesterday at the end of the day. We got a little bit more information in the evening, and then we got a provisional measure that was published yesterday morning. For the entire industry and the class entities because there are several class entities that represent our interest, they are still assessing the impact and also the measures and actions to be taken by several stakeholders and also -- public stakeholders, meaning like the government, through the agency, the Ministry of Economics and other stakeholders.

Therefore, it's a very recent measure. I know that the conversation will gain momentum in the next few days, mostly due to the nature of the measure, which is a temporary measure, and this will certainly evolve to a legislated process. But as you said it yourself, the measure is written down with a certain validity. I don't know exactly what would be the deadline, but it has a specific maturity day or validity. We just have to wait and see what is coming. And certainly, this will huge debates, both through class entities and also whenever this issue is discussed at the legislative level. So there isn't much I can tell you about it. I mean it's difficult. What's up to us is just to be calm and give time to time. On our hand, it's like they cut off our hand, but let me give you some information about the well.

I was at the reservoir that is well known. It's located in a region that it's a reservoir already in production with a much better standard and good pressure. For the next well, we believe -- I mean, we already dissipated a few things to the market. The production will be around 4,000 barrels a day, and it will be pretty much at that level.

But as a reminder, I'm not saying that it might be higher. In every project we do, be it drilling a well or a new acquisition, we try always to be on the conservative side. Last year, we delivered a well above expectation. And the other well was within expectations. And then there were some hiccups about the well. It's not that is something that is certain for sure.

[Jose Costa, executive]

Our next question comes from Marcelo Gumiero from Crédit Suisse.

[Marcelo Gumiero, analyst]

I have just a few follow-ups in relation to some previous questions. And talking about Frade, maybe you could give me some metrics on productivity, especially regarding the third phase of the asset or whether you already have some kind of assessment about it? Also, some other very quick follow-ups. Do you have any update related to the potential judicial since related to. And finally, if you have any update about the wells whose production was at halt, TBMT-4 or 8 or whether production has been resumed?

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

I'll start with the first process at is being tied back with Roncador. We had some technical discussions. This is a very technical process. And I think it will unfold in the next 6 months or something like that or maybe before the end of the year, things will be well in place even because we have to put the upside to work ourselves in Roncador Consortium, but this is a very technical process. It's moving forward. I don't want to give you a lot of guidance. I don't want to tell you where it's heading to.

And Itaipu, let's leave it aside for the moment because this is something still in its very infant phases. We are still looking at it and thinking about what to do. In Itaipu, at the end of the day, it was sort of like an option. We're just looking to see whether there are any possibilities of developing a field or if there is something there or not. So this is a long shot.

Well, Roncador, yes , it's already in place. It's happening, but it's a process that would take at least 6 months. Third phase and the wells that stopped working. I mean, third phase, we cannot give you numbers yet because it's still in progress. If you look at the history of the field, the reservoir, maybe a few months from now, we will have a better position to share with you.

Wells in maintenance, we still have some losing wells in maintenance. The 2 of TBMT, we are doing some subsea operations there. So it's just a matter of a few weeks. So I think at the end of March or April, we will resume production. And MUP3 at Frade, the same thing. We are trying to repair the unit, and it will take some time yet. And it's the same thing, the same deadline at the end of March and early April. That's the idea for now.

[Jose Costa, executive]

Next question by Andre Vidal with XP.

[Andre Vidal, analyst]

I have actually one question. What about the process to update reserves and asking specifically about Frade Field? Has this been concluded? And the results of MUP5, are they included in the number to be published? Or does it mean that perhaps we can have even a new review when the 2024 report is released? And perhaps you could give us some color on what we can expect in terms of 1P, 2P reserves compared to the report of the previous year?

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Well, I don't want to give you any guidance regarding what's going to happen with 1P and 2P at this point. What I can tell you is that if we get the report of last year, if we remove production, that would be the base of the end of 2022, beginning of 2023. And this space will be increased due to 3 factors. And this is exactly what we are doing now. We are in the middle of this certification process. That's why I don't want to give you any guidance.

So the space is going to be increased due to 3 factors because of ODP4, then whose production exceeded what we expected. And the reservoir performed better than expected. So there's a delta there. We already had this delta -- in the previous certification, we have 10 million barrels of 1P. We're only going to talk about 1P here. Now this number has increased. So there will be an increase in MUP5, which is this well that we have just put online will also have an increase.

We were expecting a flow of 6,000 barrels a day. We got 8,000 daily. It's a reservoir with a slightly higher original pressure. So again, there, we should have another increase. And the final third point that should increase the reserves is water injection. If you look at the reserves report, water injection at Frade was fully in 2P, which is kind of different. It's not always like this. But in this case, it was like this as we did not have authorization to inject water. We got the authorization. We resumed the water injection. So this business leaves 2P and goes to 1P.

So these 3 points improved Frade. There is a discussion about Albacora. One of the wells that Petrobras drilled back then in October or September. One of those wells also had a slightly better low of oil. So there might be another slight increase there. So Wahoo, of course, is not going to bring us anything, and Polvo is practically the reserve of the previous year minus production and reserve of the new year. So there should be slight improvement, actually, not a slight improvement, some improvement for Frade, good improvement.

I mean perceptible improvement. Albacora is going to post a slight increase and improvement, and that's it. And we should be disclosing -- Milton is the one that is running this project with Francilmar analysis is quite advanced. And it's the point that Roberto mentioned. And I would say that by end of March, we should be concluding the work to issue the report subsequently.

[Andre Vidal, analyst]

Perfect, very clear. If I may ask another question, Roberto. Speaking a little about M&As is out of the radar show, is no longer selling the asset. Another potential target that was mentioned a lot in the past is Peregrino from Equinor. There is some news that will be delayed compared to the original schedule.

Do you see this delay has been perhaps negative? Perhaps it could delay Equinor's decision to sell that asset?

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

I think it might delay a little. One important thing for oil companies and in the case of Equinor, it is not different, is to maintain operating capacity. Of course, Equinor will not want rid of operating capacity and then have to recover that operating capacity. So I'm speaking for Equinor, but I mean I have nothing to do with them. I mean, this is my own feeling, gut feeling.

So perhaps do something that could transition the operation more continuously perhaps that would be better. I don't know. This is a question mark. But if you say, "Oh, this is going to start in 2025." The process of sale and negotiation after ANP approval and all is a process that takes like 12 months, not less than that. So something they -- but I don't think that there will be a long delay, a delay of 3 years. No, of course, not. Perhaps a few months, but this is fine-tuning. It's hard to say. It's not that not going to be done in 2024, it's going to be done in 2027.

No, they're suffering, like everybody does. We're talking about the third phase of the campaign. And we are finding -- we are running into equipment issues, lines and services, and I believe that they are suffering from the same evil. I don't think that there will be anything so dramatic, but it seems to make sense from the business standpoint that the company should not lose operating capacity to then have to recreate it.

[Jose Costa, executive]

Next question from Gustavo Sadka with BBI.

[Gustavo Sadka, analyst]

Well, most of my questions have been answered. What is left is about Albacora Leste. When you speak about subsea 2023, would this be those 2 to 3 points, one in if I'm not mistaken, or is it something else? And how should we think about drilling as of next year? I believe that in Albacora last year, we would have a specific rig for that field. And could you expedite drilling next year? And could we expect for Albacora Leste is something similar to Frade in terms of productivity per well and investment per drilling?

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

All right. Albacora Leste, we have a plan for it. This year, we'll be focused on 2 wells that we have to work on, change the umbilical, change the line. It's not a new well. It's a lot that is there, just sitting idle because of damaged material. So we're doing maintenance. It should come online in the second half of the year.

Next year, we have a program. Along this year, it is normal, we'll deepen the studies in-house. There should be some adaptation. Perhaps by year-end, we'll have a much more detailed review. Well, Albacora Leste has a gigantic potential. We've said that 4x the known volume compared Frade 4.5 billion barrels and excellent quality. Petrobras drilled a well in September in an infield region, a reservoir that was already producing, and the well is producing more than 10,000 barrels in capacity. So there are regions with very good potential. We'll refine that.

The market moment is stressed in turn trying to buy some things, find other things and this is the struggle to have everything ready. So for the next year, we can do as much as possible. As bringing forward, this is our culture. We always try to do the best and as early as possible. But it is the art of what is possible. We have to have a well drafted plan, get the equipment. And we have of the things in-house. We have the rig, we have the vessels, and this is going to be a big operation. We'll try to bring forward as much as possible.

Perhaps in the second half of the year, mid of the second half, we might have a more detailed plan of what is going to happen next year. What we have seen until now is the plan that we communicated for those Street that we're about to be connected another 5 to be drilled. What we see is that there are another 2 wells that are closed and that we can work with and that are simpler. I call it a low-hanging fruit. And this is what I meant.

And this is a good thing. You see because we found more than we expected for the field.

[Gustavo Sadka, analyst]

It's clear. Let me ask a follow-up question When is expected?

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Well, we have a well in Arapuca ready to be connected. Here, Arapuca is about a unitization matter more than anything else. I believe that Arapuca, we have another 6, perhaps 8 months of negotiation so that we can sign a document that we call individualization of production. Once we sign that, we'll be ready to put it into production. So it doesn't get away from our initial schedule. We're talking about year-end, beginning of next year. But it doesn't depend 100% on us. It depends on the consortium of Roncador.

[Jose Costa, executive]

Our next question comes from Leonardo Marcondes from Bank of America.

[Leonardo Marcondes, analyst]

First of all, I would like to understand what is the improvement margin in pricing that you expect to have with these different trading strategies given the fact that today, we already see a very low discount for Brent in your field?

And my second point is I just want to understand better is view on a point related to export taxes. If you are to export and your tax in case the Congress votes against that measure sometime later, can you be reimbursed from the amount that you paid?

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Well, let me answer that. I think it's very difficult that we will be reimbursed because once you pay the tax, it's gone. And things are enforced. And once they are no longer enforced, it's over. In terms of oil, trading and the margins, we used to trade at a $3 discount. How much can you gain there? I mean, $1 or $0.50, I'm not saying that you're going to gain $3, that's not it. But the major improvement is that you have more knowledge with the end consumer.

This is something interesting. The majors, all of them started with this trading arm, the majors started like that. And then they start saying, well, since I have the vessels, since I have everything according to schedule, I can take oil here and bring back oil from others. And then you start operating in this trading market. But this is not what we are aiming for at the moment.

All we want is to have better contact with the buying side because we believe that these 2 million or 2.5 million barrels a month, I mean, our loads are for 1 million barrels. So we are talking about selling 2.5 vessels a month. So now pretty much get in the hands of the tradings with that volume because you don't have a lot of players, you are too exposed to the market.

So maybe it's interesting to open up the game a little bit more and have closer -- establish a closer relationship with the end market. It's more in terms of defending a discount. If there is any gain, it's a marginal gain like $0.50 at the most.

[Jose Costa, executive]

Our next question is from Tao Vasconcellos from UBS. You may proceed.

[Tasso Vasconcellos, analyst]

I just have a follow-up, Roberto. And the issue about that inventory in the Caribbean. You said that most part of it has been sold. But by the end of January, you still had 2 million of inventory in the region. I just want to understand if the entire volume has been sold throughout the month of February or if there is still any remaining amount? And if you can also tell us how did you account it for it whether this volume is part of the company of Petro Rio in Brazil or elsewhere? I just want to understand whether maybe this could have any impact in this new export tax on crude oil?

And the other question is whether you have any news about the arbitration process with the Indian people? And this to be very helpful.

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

As for the Caribbean, we sold throughout February, this volume. The volume was sold in February, and it's being delivered now throughout the month of March. The volume has been exported. It's not under Petro Rio Brazil. It's under the name of another company because it has been exported to remove it from Brazil, it has to be exported. So that export transaction occurred when it left Brazil.

We should sell 7 million barrels throughout the quarter or maybe over 7 million barrels. And of that amount, what would be impacted by this new measure, it will be something around 2.5 million give or take because the rest of it is already gone. So that's it.

About arbitration, I just want to clarify my point is arbitration, it's consultation. We cannot comment on it because you are familiar with arbitration processes. So we've been mentioning that before. So it's difficult for us to give you any update, but it's following its normal course. And I think it was still lingered until the end of the year. I mean he didn't allow me to say anything, but I do have something to say.

We are currently negotiating not with And as I said in the past one of the partners of IBP, they are trying to do the spinoff of IBP and sell their stake. And they were engaged in a public process conducted by Deloitte. We participated in the process. We presented our bid on the part. It's not related to the arbitration. It would be like a spin-off. So that part could be sold.

And so we are trying to finalize that process. But there isn't anything new. Decision-making process is very complex. We had presented a proposal in December. They asked us to review the process. So we resubmitted again in February. So we are still waiting for a response. We haven't got yes or no. And arbitration is what it is.

[Jose Costa, executive]

Well, there are no more questions. So we will be closing the Q&A session. I'd like to turn the floor to Roberto for his final statements.

[Roberto Monteiro, executive]

Thank you very much. I just want to thank everybody. This was another good year for Petro Rio. Thank you very much to our employees. I want to give a special thank you and say that your determination, dedication is what makes a difference for Petro Rio. What made the difference for Petro Rio in 2022 and will continue to make a difference in the future. Thank you very much, and I'll see you in the next quarter. We are closing the earnings video conference call. Thank you very much.