Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras
BOVESPA:PETR4
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one PETR4 stock under the Base Case scenario is 50.08 BRL. Compared to the current market price of 37.27 BRL, Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras is Undervalued by 26%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras
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Fundamental Analysis
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Petroleo Brasileiro SA, commonly known as Petrobras, is a Brazilian state-controlled oil giant that has made its mark as one of the world's largest producers of oil and natural gas. Founded in 1953, the company has played a pivotal role in Brazil's economic development, harnessing the country's vast offshore oil reserves, particularly in the pre-salt layer that lies beneath the ocean floor. With a strategic focus on sustainable energy practices and advanced technological innovations, Petrobras is not just an oil producer; it is an evolving company committed to reducing its carbon footprint while maintaining profitability. Investors are drawn to Petrobras for its strong potential to capitaliz...
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, commonly known as Petrobras, is a Brazilian state-controlled oil giant that has made its mark as one of the world's largest producers of oil and natural gas. Founded in 1953, the company has played a pivotal role in Brazil's economic development, harnessing the country's vast offshore oil reserves, particularly in the pre-salt layer that lies beneath the ocean floor. With a strategic focus on sustainable energy practices and advanced technological innovations, Petrobras is not just an oil producer; it is an evolving company committed to reducing its carbon footprint while maintaining profitability. Investors are drawn to Petrobras for its strong potential to capitalize on growing global energy demands, particularly as it maneuvers within a complex geopolitical landscape and responds to the shifting dynamics of the energy market.
Despite facing challenges, including fluctuating oil prices and regulatory scrutiny, Petrobras has demonstrated resilience and adaptability. The company has embarked on a plan to divest non-core assets, streamline operations, and reduce its debt burden, thereby enhancing its financial health and shareholder value. With ongoing investments in exploration and production, coupled with a commitment to leveraging renewable energy sources, Petrobras is positioning itself as a cornerstone of Brazil's energy future. For investors, understanding Petrobras means recognizing its dual nature: as a traditional oil company navigating modern energy transitions, while simultaneously offering a unique opportunity to participate in the transformation of one of the world's largest energy markets.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, commonly known as Petrobras, operates primarily in the energy sector and has several core business segments. Here’s a breakdown of its primary business operations:
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Exploration and Production (E&P):
- This segment involves the exploration for and production of crude oil and natural gas. Petrobras has significant operations in offshore oil fields, particularly in the pre-salt layer of the Santos Basin. This segment is crucial as it is responsible for the majority of the company’s revenues and plays a central role in its overall strategy.
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Refining, Transportation, and Marketing (RTM):
- Petrobras is engaged in refining crude oil into petroleum products. The company operates several refineries and is responsible for the transportation of these products through pipelines and shipping. This segment also includes the marketing and distribution of fuels and lubricants to both retail and wholesale customers.
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Gas and Power:
- This segment encompasses the production, transportation, and distribution of natural gas. Petrobras also operates in the energy market, including power generation activities, mainly through thermoelectric plants, and plays a vital role in Brazil’s energy supply chain.
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Biofuels:
- In response to environmental concerns and energy diversification efforts, Petrobras has invested in the production of biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel. This segment aims to support Brazil’s energy sustainability goals.
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Petrochemicals:
- Petrobras is involved in the petrochemical industry through the production of chemical derivatives used in various consumer and industrial products. This segment relies on the company’s refining processes to generate feedstock for petrochemical manufacturing.
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Supply and Trading:
- This segment manages the supply chain of crude oil and its by-products. Petrobras engages in trading activities, including import and export of petroleum and derivatives, allowing it to optimize its operations and respond to market demands.
These core segments are crucial for Petrobras in maintaining its position as a leading integrated energy company in Brazil and globally. The company's focus on innovation and sustainability in these areas is seen as key to its long-term strategy.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) has several unique competitive advantages that distinguish it from its rivals in the oil and gas industry:
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Extensive Resource Base: Petrobras has a strong portfolio of oil reserves, particularly in offshore pre-salt fields, which are among the most productive and economically viable reserves globally. This access to high-quality reserves gives Petrobras an edge in production and cost efficiency.
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Operational Expertise: The company has developed significant expertise in deepwater and ultra-deepwater drilling technologies. This experience enables Petrobras to effectively explore and produce from challenging environments that many competitors may find less economically viable.
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Integrated Business Model: Petrobras operates with an integrated business model that encompasses exploration, production, refining, distribution, and marketing. This vertical integration allows for better control over costs and supply chain efficiencies, enhancing profit margins compared to competitors that may focus on only one or two areas.
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Government Backing: As a state-controlled company, Petrobras enjoys backing from the Brazilian government, which can provide both financial support and favorable regulatory conditions. This relationship can also lead to preferential access to resources and markets within Brazil.
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Strong Domestic Market Position: Petrobras holds a dominant position in the Brazilian market for refined products, making it a key player in meeting national energy needs. This control helps shield the company from some international market volatility.
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R&D and Innovation: The company invests significantly in research and development, particularly in technology for deepwater extraction and refining processes. Innovations in these areas can lead to lower production costs and improved environmental performance.
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Strategic Partnerships: Petrobras has established partnerships with various international oil companies and joint ventures, allowing it to leverage external expertise and share risks in exploration and development activities.
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Diverse Product Offering: In addition to traditional petroleum products, Petrobras has expanded its portfolio to include natural gas and biofuels, adapting to trends toward cleaner energy sources and diversifying its revenue streams.
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Economies of Scale: With its large-scale operations, Petrobras can achieve economies of scale that can lower per-unit production costs, enhancing competitiveness against smaller, less efficient rivals.
These advantages contribute to Petrobras's resilience and potential for long-term growth, despite the challenges faced in a fluctuating global oil market.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) faces several risks and challenges in the near future, including:
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Commodity Price Volatility: As a state-controlled oil company, Petrobras is heavily influenced by global oil prices. Fluctuations can significantly impact revenue, profitability, and investment capacity.
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Regulatory and Political Risks: Being a Brazilian state-owned enterprise, Petrobras is subject to government policies and political pressures. Changes in government can lead to shifts in energy policy, taxation, and regulatory frameworks that may not be favorable to the company.
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Environmental and Climate Risks: Increasing attention to climate change and the transition toward renewable energy sources poses significant challenges. Petrobras may face pressure to reduce its carbon footprint, invest in cleaner technologies, or face penalties and reputational damage due to environmental violations.
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Debt Levels: Petrobras has historically operated with considerable debt. High leverage can be precarious, especially in a volatile market environment, as it limits financial flexibility and increases the risk of insolvency during downturns.
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Operational Challenges: The company operates in complex and high-risk environments, including offshore drilling. Operational failures, accidents, or geopolitical conflicts can disrupt production and lead to significant financial loss.
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Competition from Renewables: The rise of renewable energy sources poses a long-term threat to fossil fuel companies. Petrobras may need to diversify its portfolio and invest in sustainable energy solutions, which could require substantial capital and shift its strategic focus.
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Currency Fluctuations: As an enterprise based in Brazil, Petrobras is exposed to fluctuations in the Brazilian real compared to the US dollar. This can affect the company’s revenues and costs, particularly since oil is typically traded in dollars.
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Geopolitical Risks: Global geopolitical tensions can lead to disruptions in oil supply or affect demand. Changes in international relations can also influence investment opportunities and operational stability.
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Technological Changes: The rapid evolution of technology in the energy sector necessitates continuous investment. Failure to adapt and implement new technologies could hinder operational efficiency and competitiveness.
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Public Sentiment and Societal Pressure: As a major state enterprise, Petrobras is subject to public scrutiny. Issues such as corruption and labor relations can impact its reputation and operations, especially in a politically charged environment.
Addressing these risks will require strategic foresight, robust risk management practices, and potentially a shift in operational strategies to adapt to the evolving energy landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras
Current Assets | 167.4B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 77.8B |
Receivables | 37.1B |
Other Current Assets | 52.4B |
Non-Current Assets | 910.5B |
Long-Term Investments | 8.8B |
PP&E | 768.6B |
Intangibles | 13.9B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 119.1B |
Current Liabilities | 178.9B |
Accounts Payable | 28.9B |
Accrued Liabilities | 49.5B |
Other Current Liabilities | 100.6B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 505.3B |
Long-Term Debt | 258.4B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 246.9B |
Earnings Waterfall
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras
Revenue
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503.8B
BRL
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Cost of Revenue
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-267.7B
BRL
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Gross Profit
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236.1B
BRL
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Operating Expenses
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-59.8B
BRL
|
Operating Income
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176.2B
BRL
|
Other Expenses
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-91.5B
BRL
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Net Income
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84.7B
BRL
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras
BRL | |
Free Cash Flow | BRL |
In its latest earnings call, Petrobras reported a boost in cash flow by approximately $500 million due to tax benefits, with a total savings of around $800 million expected through Q1. The company aims to boost production by tapping into reserves in the Campos Basin, targeting a potential recovery of 200,000 barrels per day. They are also moving forward with new licensing efforts in the equatorial margin, likened to the pre-salt fields. However, challenges in chartering FPSOs persist, impacting project timelines and requiring a shift in contract models. Overall, Petrobras plans for sustainable capital structure optimization in their 2025-2029 strategy.
What is Earnings Call?
PETR4 Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras's profitability score is 67/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras's profitability score is 67/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
PETR4 Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras's solvency score is 55/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras's solvency score is 55/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
PETR4 Price Targets Summary
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PETR4 is 46.1 BRL with a low forecast of 40.1 BRL and a high forecast of 53.55 BRL.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for PETR4 is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Petróleo Brasileiro SA engages in oil and gas exploration, production, and distribution activities. The company is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Rio De Janeiro and currently employs 45,532 full-time employees. The firm is engaged in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields and from shale or other rocks. Its segments include Exploration and Production, which covers the activities of exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas liquid and natural gas; Refining, Transportation and Marketing, which covers the refining, logistics, transport and trading of crude oil and oil products activities, exporting of ethanol, and extraction and processing of shale; Gas and Power, which is engaged in transportation and trading of natural gas produced in Brazil and imported natural gas; Biofuels, which covers the activities of production of biodiesel and its co-products, and ethanol-related activities; Distribution, which includes the activities of its subsidiary Petrobras Distribuidora S.A., and Corporate.
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Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one PETR4 stock under the Base Case scenario is 50.08 BRL.
Compared to the current market price of 37.27 BRL, Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras is Undervalued by 26%.