Cyrela Brazil Realty SA Empreendimentos e Participacoes
BOVESPA:CYRE3
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Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Cyrela Brazil Realty SA Empreendimentos e Participacoes
Cyrela Brazil Realty, a company that persevered through the volatile economic environment of third-quarter 2023, saw its strategy of growth, profitability, and financial strength bear fruit. Despite challenging conditions like double-digit interest rates, the company reported an increase of 7% in the total potential sales value (PSV) launched year-on-year, amounting to BRL 5.2 billion. In sales, Cyrela amped up by 12% with an impressive BRL 4.9 to BRL 5 billion in sold PSV for the first nine months of the year. The Iconyc by Yoo project was a prime example of their successful launches, selling approximately 45 units by September end.
The operating performance remained robust, enabling Cyrela to sustain net revenue at BRL 1.6 billion for the quarter. Notably, the company's gross margin improved by 130 basis points from the previous period to 33.5%, culminating in a net income of BRL 251 million, translating to a strong net margin of 15.5% and a return on equity (ROE) of 12.8%. In spite of disbursing BRL 192 million in dividends, Cyrela made prudent financial moves that kept the net debt over equity ratio contained at just 8%.
Cyrela's launch activity yielded 13 new products, albeit at lower volumes compared to the previous year and quarter. Their inventory management strategy resulted in a stable market value at BRL 9.8 billion, while finished units' inventory saw an uptick of 11%. The delivery side did not disappoint, with 18 projects completed in the quarter. Moreover, presales slightly dipped by 1% year-on-year but the overall sales speed remained impressive at 47.9% over the last twelve months.
Cyrela's financial stability is reflected in their net income of BRL 694 million, marking a 15% increase from last year. The company's long-term-oriented debt profile is showcased by 80% of its gross debt being long term, and an improvement in the net debt to equity ratio, which lowered by 2.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. However, the company's cash generation did see a change, turning from a generation of BRL 87 million in 2022 to a burn of BRL 7 million in the year-to-date.
In response to an investor query, CEO Raphael Horn indicated that launches under the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program saw a modest increase in 2023 but did not surpass the numbers from 2021. The company expressed a commitment to this segment, suggesting potential stability or growth in its activity within this program. On margins, while no specific guidance was provided, the outlook appears cautiously optimistic given the recent trend of strong sales and stable gross margin levels.
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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A.'s Third Quarter of 2023 Earnings Call. Today with us are Mr. Raphael Horn, CEO; and Mr. Miguel Mickelberg, CFO and IRO. This presentation is being recorded and simultaneously translated. You can hear the translation by clicking the interpretation button. You can hear the translation without the original audio by clicking Mute Original Audio. Also, you can find a slide deck in English on the company's Investor Relations website at www.ri.cyrela.com.br.
[Operator Instructions]
We would like to inform you that any statements that may be made during the call related to Cyrela's business perspectives, operating and financial targets are projections made by the company's management that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that political, macroeconomic and other operating factors may affect the future of the company and lead to results that differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.
To open Cyrela's 3Q '23 earnings call, I'd like to turn it over to Mr. Raphael Horn, CEO. Mr. Horn, you may proceed.
Good morning. In the midst of a very volatile macroeconomic scenario in the recent months, both in the local and global landscapes, the company continued on its path of growth, profitability and financial strength. The results of 3Q '23 strengthened Cyrela's successful strategy once more. Even in a scenario with double-digit interest rates, the company delivered growth in its operating indicators. The potential PSV launched in the quarter was BRL 1.6 billion, totaling BRL 5.2 billion year-to-date, up by 7% year-on-year.
The company's products continue to sell extremely well with sales reaching BRL 1.7 billion in the quarter and BRL 4.9 billion or BRL 5 billion in PSV sold in the first 9 months of 2023, up by 12% year-on-year. The sales oversupply ratio of launches was 46%, a positive highlight. The highlight in the quarter was Iconyc by Yoo project, a prime product launched in August 2023 with a PSV of BRL 464 million. The project had approximately 45 of its units sold by the end of September.
The solid operating performance supported the financial results, which allowed the company to maintain the level of net revenue in the quarter at BRL 1.6 billion. Gross margin rose to 33.5%, up by 130 bps from the previous quarter and net income of BRL 251 million with a net margin of 15.5% and an ROE of 12.8%. Even after paying dividends in the amount of BRL 192 million in the period, the net debt over shareholders' equity ratio was only 8% at the end of the quarter. It should be noted that the company remains cautious and attentive to take the best market opportunities to continue with its business plan. Aware of the challenge that we have ahead of us, we would like to thank customers, shareholders and other stakeholders for their trust.
Thank you, Raphael, and good morning. On Slide 5, we will address Cyrela's launches. In 3Q '23, we launched 13 new products with a PSV of BRL 2.2 billion, 26% lower year-on-year and 38% lower quarter-on-quarter. The company's stake in the volume launched in the quarter was 72%, totaling BRL 1.6 billion in launches in Cyrela's stake. Excluding swaps, the volume launched in Cyrela's stake was BRL 1.5 billion in the quarter.
Slide 5 shows the launch Iconyc by Yoo in the City of Rio de Janeiro with a PSV of BRL 464 million. The project was launched in August and roughly 45 of its units have been sold. On Slide 6, we will talk about our sales performance. In 3Q '23, presales came to BRL 2.3 billion, 1% lower year-on-year and 9% lower quarter-on-quarter.
Cyrela's stake in the volume launched was 77%. Excluding swaps, sales reached BRL 1.7 billion in Cyrela's stake. On Slide 7, we'll address sales speed. The company's SOS in the last 12 months was 47.9%. Looking at sales speed by launch vintage, projects launched in 3Q '23 have been 46% sold. On Slide 8, we'll talk about our inventory. At the end of the quarter, inventory at market value totaled BRL 9.8 billion, in line with the previous quarter.
In the company's stake, our inventory totaled BRL 7.6 billion. The change in our inventory can be seen in the chart on the left. Slide 9 shows our finished units. In 3Q '23, we sold 11 of the finished units at the beginning of the period. Adding the inventory of projects delivered along the quarter and pricing of units at market value, finished units increased by 11% quarter-on-quarter, reaching BRL 1.4 billion and BRL 1.2 billion in Cyrela's stake.
On Slide 10, we will talk about delivered units. Cyrela delivered 18 projects in the quarter with a PSV of BRL 1.6 billion. Year-to-date, 40 projects have been delivered with a PSV of BRL 3.9 billion. On Slide 12, we will present our financial results. Net revenue was BRL 1.6 billion in the quarter, 4% higher year-on-year and in line with 2Q '23. Year-to-date, Cyrela posted BRL 4.5 billion in revenue, 12% higher year-on-year. Gross margin in the quarter was 33.5% against 33.9% in 3Q 2022 and 32.3% in the second quarter of 2023. Year-to-date, the gross margin has been 32.3%.
Now let's go to Slide 13 to see our net income and profitability. In 3Q '23, our net income was higher than 2Q '23 and also 3Q '23. Our net income in the year-to-date was BRL 694 million, 15% above 2023. Our return on average equity, that is our last 12 months net income over average shareholders' equity, was 12.8%. Now we are going to talk about our debt. Gross debt at the end of the quarter was BRL 4.8 billion. The cash position was BRL 4.2 billion. Thus, our net debt was BRL 649 million. 80% of the total gross debt is long term. Our net debt over equity ratio was 8%, 2.1 percentage points lower quarter-on-quarter.
On Slide 15, we are going to talk about the company's cash generation. In 3Q '23, our cash generation was BRL 7 million against a cash generation of BRL 188 million year-on-year and BRL 22 million quarter-on-quarter. Year-to-date, cash burn reached BRL 7 million against a cash generation of BRL 87 million in 2022. We can go now to the Q&A session. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions]
The first question comes from Mr. Gustavo Cambauva with BTG Pactual.
I have 2 questions. The first one is about the low-income clients and the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program. You had a very strong launch volume in 2023 in comparison with '22, so I would like to know more about your perspectives for the future. Do you think you can still grow more within this program? And what would be the PSV in the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program? And also your overall perspectives about discussions, about the changes in the fund for length of service, FGTS, if this could end up losing relevance?
And the second question is about gross margin. Looking forward, do you think the level of 33% to 34%, which has been your level for quite some time now, do you think it is going to continue? Or do you think there is room to grow in your gross margin since you are selling well? So what is your perspective for gross margin going forward?
Well, I don't think our launches in the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program increased too much in comparison with 2022. I know that you know the details. So what you said is actually right but the thing is that we didn't launch too many products in that program in 2022 when we launched more in '23 but less than in 2021. So it's not that there was a sharp growth in those launches from '22 to '23.
And we saw good opportunities. We like the segment and we are going to continue to operate in it. This is the volume that we have right now. I think it's going to be more or less the same. We are not going to make BRL 4 billion to BRL 5 billion in Minha Casa, Minha Vida program. We're going to leave that to our partners.
And as for the gross margin, I think it should be within that range between 32% to 35%. It really depends on swaps and the product mix and specific cases, but I don't see many reasons to see too many fluctuations there. Now about the FGTS, we don't know exactly what's going to happen. We are hoping the changes won't come to pass but we don't know.
Now the next question comes from Fanny Oreng from -- with Santander.
I have 2 questions, and the first one is about your sales performance in Rio de Janeiro. You launched the product in the neighborhood of Botafogo and the sales speed was very impressive.
So what is your perspective for Rio de Janeiro? Do you think there's room to increase the number of launches there or was this a one-off strategy for the company?
And the second question is about your G&A. There was a sharp increase in the line of compensations or damages, so we would like to know what they refer to. If you could give us more color on that, that would be great.
Well, I think Rio de Janeiro is a very tough market. We have a very good team there. The team knows the market but it is a very difficult market, so we have to be very selective. And we need to be very cautious in our moves. So we are not going to do anything differently from what we have been doing for the past 5 years. And we don't have any very ambitious plan to do something there that differs too much from what we have done. We trust our team. We know that they can operate well in Rio. And about G&A, I'll turn it over to Miguel.
Well, about that specific line that you mentioned, we see a lot of fluctuations in that line. It all depends on settlements and judgments from the courts.
And we analyze our base in every single claim that we have here. And this quarter, we had a slightly higher amount in that line, and that was because of a case in a launch from 2009, and there was a settlement in the amount of BRL 6 million.
But today, we have a provision for lawsuits in the amount of BRL 234 million. So this is a very large amount and we might see some volatility, and we have had some quarters with similar levels as that.
The next question comes from Mr. André Dibe with Itaú.
I have 2 questions. The first one is about costs. I want to know your perspectives about the evolution of your costs, especially workforce. And also, what is the difference of costs in the different regions where you operate? And the second question is about your price dynamic. We know that although you had a good operating performance with many launches and good sales, you haven't had room to increase prices. So I wanted to know your perspective about that. What else has to happen apart from a better macroeconomic performance so that you can increase prices?
Well, we don't really work with that scenario of increasing prices. The market is what it is and each neighborhood has its price. So I don't know what has to happen for us to increase prices. Brazil needs to succeed and interest rates need to go down. But we are thankful that we can sell at the price that we like to sell so that's the good news.
If we buy a plot of land, assuming that we are going to sell at BRL 16,000 and you sell at BRL 16,000, that's great. The problem is when we buy for BRL 16,000 and we end up selling for BRL 14,000 or BRL 15,000. So we don't know what needs to happen. There are many macroeconomic factors that should come to pass but I don't think they will in the short term. So we are not counting on that. So I think that the glass is half full. Until we keep selling at the price that we want, it's great. And Miguel is going to address your question about the cost of workforce.
Well, about costs, the scenario is still positive when it comes to inputs. We have not had sharp increases and our cost basket is very close to the INCC rate. In São Paulo, the market is a little more challenging. The market has grown. It has a very high volume.
So we have some specific issues with workforce, especially with the structural part of the buildings, but we have been addressing that issue. And the market now has stabilized in terms of launches. So there is just a marginal demand for new workers. But since the volume is so big, it's hard to get high-quality workforce with a good productivity in all of our sites. But the scenario has not worsened. It has been more or less the same since the beginning of the year.
The next question comes from Mr. Ygor Altero with XP.
I have 2 questions. First, I would like to know more about your perspectives about the sales level, which seems to be very strong, even though the scenario is more challenging. So I'd like to know more about your market vision on this. And for next year, what will be the size of the company? You have a very large base for comparison in 2023, so I would like to know if you're going to be more cautious in any specific segments, for example, in the medium-range sector because of affordability issues. So I'd like to know more about your thoughts for next year.
Well, the mid- to high-income markets, I think they are tougher right now with higher interest rates, but that has been good for us so far. We have been working very hard on our products with a lot of care and our brand. We have several people working on customizing the products to our clients. And the clients see that. They see the effect of that. So the medium-high to high-end segments, since things are difficult in those segments, we end up benefiting from this.
Yes, the market is tougher but surprisingly, the products have been selling well. So we are going to continue to place our bets on the medium-high to high segments. It's difficult but we're going to continue working with it because we are selling good products with good profitability. We hope this will continue. But of course, it all depends on the macroeconomic scenario. If it deteriorates, it's no longer going to be true. But until it works, we're going to continue to do it.
For the low-income segment, we are going through a good phase, and for next year, I think we are going to grow. It was not planned but I think that we are going to grow next year, but that's going to happen because we found some interesting parts of land, and we are going to see some growth next year.
The next question comes from Aline Caldeira with Bank of America.
I'd like to talk about your capital structure and dividends. Cyrela has a comfortable balance sheet with a net position that is relevant in JVs, and there's a good perspective for cash generation with finished products and macroeconomic scenario improving. So I'd like to know your priorities in terms of allocation of capital. And also what do you think is going to happen in terms of dividends next year?
Thank you for your question. Well, we always think of dividends, considering our cash generation and the prospective scenario for cash flow. For this year, in the beginning of the year, we believed that we were going to burn BRL 300 million to BRL 500 million and until the end of the third quarter. Excluding the disposal of the Cury stakes, we had an operating cash burn of BRL 90 million, which is BRL 30 million per quarter roughly.
So we are much below our expectations, so we can say already that at the end of the year, we are going to have a cash burn that is lower than we expected as the low end of this range that we expected in the beginning of the year. And that is positive.
It gives us more confidence in terms of paying dividends, but it's going to depend on what happens from now on. This year, we had a significant volume of land bank being bought, and we're going to have a solid pipeline with growth for next year. And although we bought that land bank, we didn't have any cash issue.
Looking at the snapshot for next year, and if we look back 1 year ago, we can see a very similar scenario. So we believe that for next year, we are going to have a slight cash burn. It's all going to depend again on sales speed and also the purchase of land bank, which are the 2 variables that impact this number the most.
But the company is in a good structure. And at some point, we are going to see an acceleration in the number of dividends or the volume of dividends. If we look at 2016 all the way to 2023, second quarter of 2023, we had a payout of 65% in dividends over reported net income. This year, we are going to have a lower payout than that. For now, we have just paid the minimum -- the mandatory minimum dividend amount. But we need to have a lean shareholders' equity because that's the only way that we can offer an attractive return on equity. So it is on our radar but we are very conservative in terms of making dividend decisions.
The next question comes from Mr. Raphaël Leyder with Safran.
I'd like to follow up on a question that was asked about margins. This quarter, the share of inventories in the sales mix was higher than last year, and the margin is lower than the new launches that you had, but still the gross margin increased sharply by 1.3 percentage points. So I wanted to know more about that impact. And if you could also give us more color about the spread between the older products and the new launches, that would be great.
Thank you very much, Raphaël, for your question. Indeed, in 3Q '23, our margin increased significantly quarter-on-quarter and our previous numbers. And the main driver behind that was the recognitions this year that was a little bit higher than we had in the past. But it is important to mention that we are always going to see a lot of volatility in that line.
Our inventory is still very much concentrated on launches from '21 and '22, and the margins are similar to those that we launched in 2023. But to show what the volatility is like in our gross margin, this quarter, our adjusted gross margin was 35.4%, a little bit more than our REF margin, which is 34.9%. So in order for us to keep that level of 33%, 34%, we will need to continue to have the recognitions with margins at that level or a little bit more than that.
For 2024, our launch margin will be close to 33.5% or 34%. That's the number that we have now. But it all depends on the competition and the price dynamic, inflation and so on. But today, our reported margin this quarter is close to what we have been operating for, but we are sure going to see some volatility. This quarter, we had the Iconyc recognized with a 34% gross margin and another project in São Paulo that was very successful and that is going to bring a great return on capital. And the gross margin is lower than 30% because it is -- it has a lot of swaps.
But when we buy a land bank, the variable that we consider is not gross margin, it's the net margin and at present value. But we are always going to see volatility again. So it's hard for us to give you more color on the gross margin, but we believe that this level is going to be the normalized level for next year. But yes, you are going to see some volatility across quarters.
The next question comes from Bruno Mendonca with Bradesco.
I have 2 questions, too. The first one is about transfers. Can you give us more color about your average LTV in these projects when they are delivered? And have you been able to have any advanced transfers, or if there has been any change in the trends with the transfer rates with the banks?
And about the CRI bonds, if you could give us more color about the rates of the senior quotas and the mezzanine quotas and the comparison between that and the rates in your portfolio and the asset in your portfolio.
First, about the transfers, I don't have the number here with me right now. But in the fourth quarter, we have a very high paid percentage, about 50%. And for our deliveries in 2024, it's 78% sold and those units were 43% paid. So in 2024, we're going to have a very low LTV at least in the beginning of the year. And we have not had any relevant case of denials or anything like that. We have been able to navigate this scenario well.
About CashMe, the information will be public after we disclose the prospectus. The year has been very good for the company for CashMe, and we finished the third quarter with a little bit north of BRL 2 billion in our portfolio in comparison with BRL 1.7 billion at the end of 2022, so there was a significant growth here. And until the end of October, we had BRL 680 million in origination so we should surpass our target of BRL 800 million, increasing our portfolio. And since the financial margins are good, we have been improving the topline and the result at CashMe.
We worked very hard for containing expenditures at CashMe, too, and we worked very hard on the capital structure, increasing the number of CRI bonds. And we made a little bit more than BRL 1 billion in CRI bonds, so we are operating at about BRL 606 million in shareholders' equity for CashMe. So it was a very good year for CashMe, putting the company at a good level operationally and financially. We are excited about this operation, and we hope we will be able to continue delivering on it.
The next question comes from Tainan Costa with UBS.
My question is about launches. I'd like to know more about your launches and your land bank. Miguel said that you bought many plots of land for 2024. So do you still need to make more efforts to recompose your land bank? And what should we expect in terms of launches for next year?
Thank you, Miguel. Well, when we buy land, we disclose the purchase when we finish the deal, when we sign the contract and when the contracts are confirmed. Until that happens, we don't publish any news about land bank, and so we don't have those confirmations. And we already have land bank for 2024 but we still have a lot to do for 2025 in all segments. I don't know off the top of my head the percentage of land bank that we already have for 2025, but I know that there's still a lot of -- lots of lands that need to be bought.
Next question comes from Mr. André Mazini with Citi.
Four out of the 8 plots of land that you bought were in the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program. And in São Paulo, it seems to me that you have been focusing more on the high-end segment. But in the increase of your potential to build more projects, do you think it would make sense to use more cash to buy land bank?
And the second question is about the new guarantees of framework that was just approved. In our understanding, you can use more than one collateralized loan for the same real estate property. And that seems to be interesting to CashMe. So if you could give us more color about that and the opportunities that, that represents for CashMe, that would be great.
You said that we launched 4 Minha Casa, Minha Vida products and 4 high-income segment products in the year. Well, I think that the medium-high and high-end segments are still our focus. And about swaps, I think our mix has been the same for 4 years so I don't think that's going to change regardless of any context. I don't think we're going to change that so soon. I don't see anything changing in the future, in the near future at least.
And your question about land bank. Well, again, I don't think the mix is going to change too much. 2/3 will be in the high-income segment and 1/3 in the low-income segment, which is our capacity. It's the capacity that we can operate well in each segment. And about your guarantee question, don't think that we are going to have a 50-50 split between high-end segment and low-end segments.
That's not the case at all. And we bought land bank for the 2 segments. We're going to launch more products in the high-end segment in terms of volume and also in terms of PSV.
Mazini, I'm going to address your question about the guarantee framework or legislation. I think it could be an opportunity for CashMe, but there are still many questions around about how the property is executed when we have a supervening fiduciary disposal. There are still too many questions around this, so we are not changing our strategy for credit origination, but we are paying close attention to this topic. And I think that in the future, it could bring some good opportunities. The legal team at CashMe has been paying close attention to this.
The next question comes from Mr. Jorel Guilloty with Goldman Sachs.
I have 2 questions. The first one is again about gross margin. And if you could talk a little bit more about the trends for gross margin between high income and low-income segments.
Do you think that there is a difference in the trend between the 2 products? Maybe the medium-high segment can grow a little bit more if interest rates go down or maybe because the input costs will go down. So overall, I'd like to know the difference in the trends for gross margin in those 2 different products.
And the second question is about the city plan. The city plan change can create an oversupply in the high-income neighborhoods in São Paulo. So do you think that is a risk of having an oversupply of properties because of the changes in the city plan?
About gross margin, I think that we can see opportunities for improvements in gross margin at Vivaz. And you can see the breakdown per segment in our release. And our gross margin in the Minha Casa, Minha Vida was about 28%. And this quarter, it was 30.7% so we might see some gains there. For Living and Cyrela, it really depends on the product mix and also swaps and CashMe, but we don't believe that, that gross margin is going to increase in the coming quarters.
Now about oversupply and the risk of oversupply because of the city plan, I think that the city plan will increase the addressable market because you can have a more constructed area in some regions of the city.
But I personally don't think that is going to determine the supply. I believe that it depends a lot more on macroeconomic conditions and the availability of capital to our competitors. So I, for one, don't think the change in the city plan specifically will change that risk for us too much. And there's always the risk of an unbalanced supply-demand in our sector because it is very granular.
The next question comes from Mr. Marcelo Motta with JPMorgan.
I have 2 questions, too. The first one is about free cash flow. Your cash burn was much lower than you expected and you bought more land bank. So should I understand that the sales speed was higher than you expected? What was the factor that impacted this that caused cash burn to be so much lower than expected?
And expenses, I imagine that there was a one-off effect here so I would just like to know more about that. The one-off situations that we saw in the second and third quarters will continue or is that over? Should we expect any changes in the expenses line at all?
Thank you for your question. About cash generation, I think that receivables and also sales speed and the amount paid by customers before they received the properties were the main factors that benefited us. Of course, that's very hard to predict. It's very hard to model those situations, but I think that was the biggest gains that we had.
Now about the other expenses line item, we had a few losses involving the projects that we had in Minas Gerais in a partnership with a local company. We are still creditors in some operations and we have some projects that are ongoing. So we might have some other impacts, but we are going to measure those impacts in a more precise way in each quarter.
That concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn it over back to Mr. Raphael Horn for his closing remarks.
Thank you very much for your attention. See you in our next call next year. Thank you.
This concludes Cyrela's earnings call. Should you have any questions, please contact the Investor Relations team at ri@cyrela.com.br. Thank you very much for your participation, and have a good day.
[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]