CSN Mineracao SA
BOVESPA:CMIN3
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CSN Mineracao SA
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
CSN Mineracao SA
In their earnings call, CSN Mineração closed 2023 with significant achievements despite the impact of heavy rainfall on its operations. The company's leadership expressed gratitude toward stakeholders and provided a summary highlighting a solid production pace culminating in a 26% year-over-year production growth, reaching 42.6 million tonnes. This performance, driven by higher ore prices, solid commercial activity, and efficient cost management, led to an impressive 55% EBITDA margin for the quarter. The robust operational performance led to a substantial cash generation, compensating for increased investments and financial expenses. Remarkably, the company also emphasized its commitment to ESG initiatives ─ testing electric trucks and improving safety and diversity within the workplace.
CSN Mineração is not only focused on financials but also progressing impressively in its ESG commitments. The testing of off-road electric trucks and an increase in women's representativity in the company from 14% in 2022 to 24% in 2023 demonstrate this dedication. Add to that a 10th consecutive year without fatalities and significant reductions in the number and severity of accidents involving employees, it's evident that the company prioritizes sustainable operations and a secure working environment.
On the investment front, the company continued to strengthen its operational infrastructure, with a 21.3% quarterly increase in CapEx totaling BRL 490 million. The majority of this investment supports maintenance of operational capacity and advancement of strategic projects, including the promising P15 project highlighted during Investor Day. This contributed to a year-on-year CapEx increase of 22.7%, amounting to BRL 1.5 billion for 2023. Concurrently, the company has maintained a healthy liquidity position with BRL 9.8 billion at the year's end and preserved a net cash balance of BRL 1.2 billion.
Wrapping up, 2023 was a record-breaking year for CSN Mineração. The company achieved their highest production volumes and sales to date, and the fourth quarter stood out as the best in EBITDA performance across the last 10 quarters. Evidenced also by positive adjustments in the provisional prices and an enriched product mix, the company's achievements mirror the collective efforts of dedicated employees and a strategic vision for continued growth and operational excellence.
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[Interpreted] Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we would like to welcome everyone to CSN Mineração Conference Call to present results for the Fourth Quarter 2023.
Today, we have with us the company's executive officers. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] This event is being webcast through Internet and can be accessed at the IR side of CSN Mineração at ir.csnmineracao.com.br, where the presentation is also available. The replay of this event will be available for 7 days after the closing of the event.
Before proceeding, please be advised that some of the statements herein are mere expectations or trends and are based on the current assumptions and opinions of the company management and that future results, performance and events may differ materially from those expressed herein, which do not constitute projections. In fact, actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements as a result of several factors, such as general and economic conditions in Brazil and other countries, interest rates and exchange rate level, future rescheduling or payment of debt [ peg ] in foreign currencies, protectionist measures in the U.S., Brazil and other countries, changes in laws and regulations, and general competitive factors at global, regional or national level.
We would now like to turn the floor over to Mr. Pedro Oliva, CFO and IRO, who will present the financial and operational highlights for CSN Mineração during the period. Mr. Oliva, you may proceed, please.
Good morning, and I would like to begin by thanking you for your attendance at our results call, we had a solid production pace at the end of the year despite, of course, the rainfall, allowing the company to exceed its guideline, reaching 42.6 million tonnes in 2023. EBITDA margin reached 55% in the quarter with a performance driven by the appreciation of ore prices, solid commercial activity and cost efficiency. Our solid cash generation in the period was thanks to a strong operational performance, and it ended up offsetting the greater investments and financial expenses.
On the ESG front, I highlight the test with 2 off-road electric trucks. And we're moving forward in this agenda. We have already received 6 more trucks that once again are being tested.
In the next slide, we have our production volume and inventories. We reached 10.9 million tonnes in the fourth quarter '23, which represents a 6% drop vis-a-vis the record results of the third quarter '23. This was expected because of the rainfall. I highlight the growth of 17% vis-a-vis the same period last year, making the fourth quarter of '23 the best fourth quarter of the company in terms of production volume.
In annual data, we reached 42.6 million tonnes, representing a growth of 26% vis-a-vis the 33.7 million of 2022. Despite this very strong production results, we were able to have a reduction of 6% in inventory to 4 million tonnes, thanks to excellence in operations and the record of sales in 2023.
In the next slide, we see ourselves. We reached in [ 1.5 ] million tonnes, with an expected loss of 4% vis-a-vis the previous quarter, once again because this seasonally is the moment of greatest rainfall, but a growth of 15% vis-a-vis the same period last year. Once again, it was the best fourth quarter in the company when it comes to the sales metric. This allowed us a growth of 28% compared to the previous year, reaching 42.7 million tonnes.
Net revenue grew 21% vis-a-vis the third quarter, reaching $91.4, and of course, this reflects that upward trajectory of mining during the period.
In the next slide, we show you our price realization. You can observe that Platts during the period was $128.3, growing 12%. In absolute terms, it grew $14.3. In the last line, the growth was 21% and $16.2 per tonne. Now what I highlight here is the enhancement in the company quality.
In the third quarter, we had an adjustment of quality of $14. And we ended up with $3.1 enhancement per tonne because of minor adjustments in our products. The freight was somewhat higher, went from 20% to 22.5% quarter-on-quarter.
In the next slide, we have our COGS data that had a drop of 3% to BRL 2.2 billion. This is due to the lower volumes, of course, because of the rainfall period, but also due to a lower commercial activity during the period.
In the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA increased 38.8% vis-a-vis the previous period, reaching BRL 2.75 million, with an EBITDA margin of 55%. This reflects a strong price realization and the record volumes for the fourth quarter, once again, despite the heavy rainfalls. When it comes to adjusted EBITDA in the next slide, we're breaking down this positive variation compared to previous quarters. And you can see the impact of the price improvement impacting the sales for the current quarter and a positive adjustment in provisional prices that were exposed to future quotation periods and a mix that was better for the period. Now, this mix is due to the better quality, as mentioned in the previous slide, and also a greater share of our own iron ore compared to the iron ore that we purchase.
In the next slide, you see our CapEx that totaled 490 million in the fourth quarter, with an increase of 21.3% compared to the previous quarter as a result of current investments to maintain operational capacity. That is why we have achieved our records and the stride of the investment projects. We had an update in the schedule of our projects in Investor Day. And of course, the P15 project is underway very positively.
When it comes to 2023, CapEx reached BRL 1.5 billion, an increase of 22.7% compared to 2022. Net working capital had a strong impact of accounts receivable directly impacted by the appreciation of iron ore. And of course, it overcame the increase in the line of suppliers.
In the next slide, we show you the company's liquidity position, BRL 9.8 billion is what we had at the end of last year, maintaining BRL 1.2 billion in terms of net cash. The free cash flow was BRL 1.1 million in the fourth quarter, above the previous quarter, basically because the strong EBITDA offsetting the greater disbursements that we had with financial expenses, taxes and investments.
In the last slide, as is our tradition, we highlight our main strides in terms of ESG. I would like to highlight 2 broad issues here. One is the increase in representativity of women. Luckily, we have made significant strides in the last few years. We have 24% of women in the company compared to 14% in 2022. And regarding health and safety, despite all of the operational challenges and increasing volume, the company continues to relevantly enhance its indicators in health and safety. We celebrate the 10th year with 0 fatalities, which, of course, for us is fundamental in all of our operations, a drop of 28% in the number of accidents involving our own employees, and a reduction of 46% in the severity rate of accidents vis-a-vis 2022.
With this, I would like to conclude the presentation and highlight that the year 2023 was a year of records in the volume of production and purchases in the sales volume. And the fourth quarter was the best quarter in terms of EBITDA of the last 10 quarters and a record in terms of our purchase, commercial activity and sales for the company. This has always been positive, thanks to our employees, whom I would like to thank publicly.
We now open for questions and answers.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Gabriel Simoes from Goldman Sachs.
Can you hear me?
Yes. Yes, we can.
Well, thank you for the presentation, and thank you for taking our questions. We have 2 questions regarding the price realization. We saw the enhancement and the enhancement in quality as well. Perhaps, you could give us more color in terms of this discount. Is it due to the mix? Is it due to the average quality of products produced at the mine? Or is it due to the purchases from third parties?
Now, when we think about this discount in quality, P15 is one of your major projects to enhance the product quality. Should we think about the average quality of the mine in the coming quarters or coming years as P15 will only come into operation in the future? Now -- we -- are you working in lower mining areas where the quality is lesser? And which are your initiatives to offset this in the short term? And will the average quality decrease until the coming into operation of P15?
Well, when it comes to price realization, it's due to 2 factors. We did have an improvement in the quality of iron ore produced. This is due to the efforts carried out at our central plant, especially in the magnetic concentrator and in the unit of spirals, where we separate the iron ore and we obtain a better quality. In terms of figures, we went from 59.5%, a little below 60% in the third quarter, to 60.4% in the fourth quarter.
Now, alongside with this, we have the Chinese steel market that has been facing low margins for about 2 years. They're at a negative level on average. And there are many steel plants in China losing money. And of course, this will compress the adjustments in quality, and it favors the unit cost in production, the margin of volumes and decreases the adjustments due to the reduction of quality.
Now, regarding P15, I think this is the great element that has transformed the quality in our product mix. The entry is foreseen for the first half of 2027, with 67% content of flare. Now, we are working at 60.5% at present, and it will be truly a transformation. We have a discount of $10 because of flat to a premium that will be $15, and we're being conservative here. So we have a price delta of $25 and a unit cost of production that will be similar. Gabriel, this is when we will really see a transformation, and we should have variations throughout the year, but discount for Platt in the coming years until the coming into operation of P15.
That is my summary, if you have a follow-up question, I'm at your disposal.
Our next question is from Barbara Soares from Itau BBA.
Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear you well. You can proceed.
Congratulations for your results. My question is a follow-up of Gabriel's question. Pedro, you mentioned that the margins of the Chinese are tight. How can we think of a quality discount in the company for this year? Are you still going to work at $12 per tonne?
Secondly, another factor, the demand for iron ore in China, we saw a pickup at the end of the year, but it doesn't seem to continue. So which will be the demand for scrap this year? And how will this interfere with the demand of iron ore this year? And which are the products where China will increase its share? We know that capacity is a problem. The [ AFs ] are operating at the capacity of only 60%.
Well, thank you for the questions, Barbara. We have a very constructive vision for China after the 2 sessions. The government announced a growth rate of 5%, and is referring to significant funding, 1 billion in special government, special bonds, long-term special bonds and others. Now, the greatest opening for foreign investment, of course, will be something positive.
And there's another topic that they mentioned, a development of a new type of social housing. This could become an important support for the Chinese real estate sector, generating and making feasible demand for housing and the demand for steel and iron ore.
They're going to give thrust to consumption focusing on home appliances. The automotive sector had an exceptional performance year-on-year, and we foresee a greater potential for growth this year.
Now, when we look at [ PS ], there could be a long-term trend in the search for decarbonizing in the global steel segment, but in China, consistently, what we have seen is a relevant drop in this segment through the last months. We have to try to understand what will happen for the rest of the year, but there will be a high consumption of energy with difficulties in the availability of scrap.
Now, there is an issue of the mix of demand based on type of products. The products in China refers to flat and long steel. Now, there was a share of 21% through 2023. It dropped to 29% in '22, 26% in 2023, and it will probably drop more in 2024. So all of this associated to long steel. And perhaps, this will partially explain the lower use of these tailings in China.
The next question comes from Ricardo Monegaglia from Safra Bank.
I have a few questions. The first, Pedro, if you could give us some indication of the level of purchases from third parties in the fourth quarter? And how can we think of the margins realized vis-a-vis purchase is going forward? Perhaps mention dollars per tonne or a margin, which would be more interesting.
The second question refers to prepayment. You celebrated some contracts during the year but did not announce any prepayment. Going forward, which is the appetite of your clients or your appetite for new prepayments? And which are the features that you're looking for a longer term? Perhaps higher, lower volumes being contracted. Now, any indication will be of great use for us.
And the last question, perhaps I am wrong, but I see that there has been a positive impact in the expenses for core leases during the quarter. And which is the reason for this? Why did you have that positive impact? I base myself on expenses for the entire year and the accrued expenses for the 9 months of '23.
Thank you for the questions. Regarding the purchase volume in the fourth quarter, we had 3.3 million tonnes in terms of volume for the coming year. As we have communicated in Investor Day, we don't have operations in terms of this. We're going to prioritize unit margin in purchases in detriment of volume. We hope to deliver absolute values better than last year. This is what we're working on, but purchasing less volume because we are going to produce more and prioritize our logistic capacity to absorb this greater volume of our own production that, of course, has lower cost per tonne, and they will be superior to the volume of purchases.
I cannot share with you the margins, otherwise, my Commercial Director will be quite uncomfortable. This is what I can say, that we're working towards adequately compensating the logistic interest structure that we have available to carry the volume of third parties. You can look at the margin and the capital allocation there in terms of volume.
When it comes to prepayments, we have spoken with our partners for the 3 main contracts that we carried out. We asked about their interest in new prepayments, and we have a volume contracted for the next 3 years, 4.6 million of tonnes in '24, 6.3 million tonnes. Perhaps there's room to work with more. We're attentive to the opportunities that might arise. We have an outlook. There's nothing immediate. We don't need to do this, considering our comfortable cash position in the company, but we have always sought longer periods and the search for better pricing as part of our negotiation of prepayment. We not only focus on the financial issues, we have been successful in our negotiations and our new negotiations, and it is a contract and we have a way of pricing the iron ore that we sell, and we try to work with a premium.
Now, this is strategic for us. And we have been able to negotiate adjustments in quality as well and better freight rates. These are our priorities when we engage in a new negotiation for these contracts in terms of the port leasing. In truth, we had an increase during the period. And later, I can share the information with you.
All of this is linked to the increase of unit price, linked to the increase in Platts despite the lower volumes. From the viewpoint of the financial values for leasing in the third quarter of '23 was BRL 93.6 million, it went to BRL 96.2 million despite the lower volumes. This is exclusively explained because of the increase of Platts during the period.
Our next question comes from Guilherme Rosito from Bank of America.
Can you hear me?
Yes, we hear you well, Guilherme.
I have 2. The first refers to hedge. Do you have any open position in terms of the hedge you carried out last year for Platts? And if nowadays, you're thinking of renewing that program, working with hedging this year?
My other question is about volume. The year 2023 was very strong. The fourth quarter was a record. When you look at 2024, will the volumes of 2024 be closer to the higher upper limit of guidance? And will this depend on delivering production, purchasing from third parties, which is the demand in China to increase production and purchases, simply to plan ahead?
Guilherme, the hedge position we have for 2024, luckily enough. We contracted hedge before the price construction. We have 13 million tonnes at $126 per tonne on average. Now, the pricing mark-to-market at yesterday's price was positive at BRL 270 million. This is our hedge position at present. In the present date levels, I don't think we will expand on these figures regarding the guidance volumes. I think it's too early to speak about top of the range. We have a guidance for 42 million to 43.5 million tonnes.
What I can say is that we started the year on a good foot. We have a good performance at the mine. Of course, the rainfall is a period for greater risk in our period. This is normal for Brazil. But we have been able to navigate through this very well that about production regarding purchases, we have that target of working with better unit margins. And we have been able to contract the volumes that we did at the beginning of the year. We're well positioned for 2024 so far.
Thank you, simply to confirm the volumes 13 million tonnes at $126.3, is that it?
Yes. Correct.
[Operator Instructions]
The next question comes from [indiscernible] in writing.
He said, congratulations for your results. Which is the expectation for the payout of dividend?
Good morning, [indiscernible], and thank you for the questions. Our dividend policy will be maintained. It's a distribution of 80% to 100% of the company's net profit in the last 2 years, the payouts took place in May and November. There is no formal policy regarding this. It depends on the Board of Management. But this policy has been maintained. We have a very sound cash position. We have an ambitious growth plan. We're making strides. P15 is advancing very well and the net cash position because of what we have, we will maintain our dividend policy and continue to be a good payer during 2024.
As we have no further questions, I would like to return the floor to Pedro Oliva for the closing remarks.
I simply wanted to thank all of you once again for your attendance at our earnings results call. Once again, I highlight the record year we had in 2023. We should celebrate these achievements, a record in production purchases and sales and active improvement of 22% vis-a-vis the previous year. And an exceptional fourth quarter, truly fantastic once again. Thank all of you and thank all of the employees at CSN Mineração. Have a good day.
The earnings results call for CSN Mineração ends here. We would like to thank all of you for your attendance. Have an excellent day.
[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]