Braskem SA

BOVESPA:BRKM5

Earnings Call Analysis

Braskem Q3 2023: Solid Earnings and Strategic Growth

In Q3 2023, Braskem's recurring EBITDA rose 34% to $187 million, backed by higher sales volumes in Brazil and the US/Europe, successful REIQ tax credit postings and efficient operation initiatives, like green ethylene capacity expansion leading to a 108% utilization rate, boosting Green PE sales by 48%. The company's robust liquidity with $3.4 billion cash covers debts for the next 6 years. Debt profile is long-termed with average maturity at 12 years. Brazil's ethylene production may dip in Q4 2023 due to scheduled maintenance. In Mexico, an ethane import terminal project, financed with $408 million, will start operations in H2 2024. Braskem is focusing on working capital optimization and strategic cost reductions to maintain solid credit metrics and liquidity, amidst a challenging international market where petrochemical spreads are pressured by low demand and new capacities, though an uptrend in polyethylene prices could signal recovery ahead.

Braskem Q3 2023 Finances Remain Strong Amid Global Challenges

Braskem, in the third quarter of 2023, reported a recurring EBITDA of $187 million, with noncash losses of $497 million. Despite these losses, the petrochemical giant maintained a robust liquidity position, ending the quarter with $3.4 billion in cash, enough to cover all debts for the next six years, excluding the standby revolving facility of $1 billion available until 2026. The debt profile has an average term of 12 years, and the net debt remained at lower historical levels.

Safety, Sales, and Expansion: Braskem's Q3 Focus

The company's global accident frequency was lower by 8%, reflecting its commitment to safety. Sales in Brazil showed a robust 12% increase, outpacing national demand. The standout performance was from green ethylene operations, which saw an impressive 108% utilization rate following capacity expansions and industrial efficiency projects. These optimizations included the opening of a new Japan office and the establishment of Braskem Siam for green ethylene production in Thailand.

Braskem's Ambitious Expansion into Asia with Braskem Siam

Braskem Siam, a joint venture in Thailand, is set to bolster Braskem's foothold in Asia. The new facility aims to produce up to 200,000 tons of green ethylene and will play a pivotal role in reaching the goal of expanding green product capacity to 1 million tons by 2030.

Robust Liquidity and Provisions at Braskem

The company remains well-capitalized with provisions of BRL 14.4 billion, of which BRL 9.2 billion was disbursed by the third quarter's end, leaving an ample provision reserve of roughly BRL 5.6 billion.

Performance Across Braskem's Global Markets

Braskem's global facilities operated at an average 81% utilization rate. The Mexico segment, however, experienced a dip to a 66% utilization rate due to external challenges, but the company managed to align sales volume with previous quarters through effective stock optimization. This resilience forecasts an optimistic outlook for the upcoming increments in production and stability in sales volume.

Investment Plans: Balancing Growth with Fiscal Responsibility

The firm is executing a balanced capital expenditure strategy, with 2023's CapEx 22% lower than the previous year, reflecting improved budgeting and project prioritization processes. Concurrently, Braskem is exploring opportunities for monetizing non-core assets, ensuring it continues to improve results and drive shareholder value without compromising asset security or operations.

Market Dynamics and Financial Management

Despite consistent pressure on petrochemical spreads globally due to excess supply and low demand, some products like polyethylene saw price increases. Braskem coped with these market fluctuations through working capital optimization, albeit with an overall cash consumption. Looking forward, while Brazil may see a decrease in production levels and resin sales volume, the U.S. and Europe segments expect stable utilization and spreads. Mexico is positioned for an increase in production with stable sales volumes and potentially rising spreads.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Good morning, and thank you for waiting. Welcome to Braskem's Third Quarter of 2023 Results Conference Call. With us here today we have Mr. Roberto Bischoff, Braskem's CEO; Mr. Pedro Freitas, Braskem's CFO; and Mrs. Rosana Avolio, Director of Investor Relations, Strategic Planning and Corporate Market Intelligence.

We'd like to notify you that this event is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] After Braskem's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. [Operator Instructions] This event is also being broadcast live via webcast and may be accessed through Braskem's website at https:\\www.braskem-ri.com.br, where the presentation will also be available.

The selection of slides will be controlled by you. The audio will be available shortly after the event has concluded. We'd like to remind all participants that you may post your questions through the Braskem website. They will be answered by the IR team after the conference has completed.

Before proceeding, let us also remind you that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Braskem's management and on information currently available to the company. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to future events and, therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors and analysts should understand that macroeconomic conditions, industry conditions and other factors could also cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

Now I would like to turn the conference over to Mrs. Rosana Avolio, Director of IR, Strategic Planning and Corporate Market Intelligence. She will begin her presentation. Mrs. Avolio, you may begin your presentation.

[Rosana Avolio, executive]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for participating in Braskem's earnings conference call. Today, we will present the third quarter 2023 results. Let's start the presentation on Slide 3 with the quarter's highlights.

In the third quarter 2023, Braskem's recurring EBITDA was $187 million with a noncash loss of $497 million and the cash consumption, excluding Alagoas disbursement of $69 million. I would like to emphasize that the company maintained a robust liquidity position, ended the quarter with a cash position of $3.4 billion, which is sufficient to cover all of its debts for the next 6 years. This amount is not considering the standby revolving facility of $1 billion available until 2026. It's worth mentioning that Braskem's debt profile remains very long with an average term of 12 years, and the net debt remained controlled at a lower level when compared to the historical levels of the company.

Regarding the operational highlights, the global accident frequency rate was 8% lower when compared to the previous quarter. Sales in the Brazil segment increased by 12% in the national market when compared to the second quarter of 2023, which represents a higher increase than the Brazilian demand in the period. I also highlight the green ethylene utilization rate, which reached 108% in the third quarter of 2023 due to the conclusion of the capacity expansion project and the implementation of industrial efficiency projects.

On the strategic front, Braskem presently opened an office in Japan, which has a very important consumer market for the company's Green PE biopolymer since the start-up of our plant. I would also like to highlight the constitution of Braskem Siam, a joint venture between Braskem and SCG Chemicals, which will be responsible for the construction project of green ethylene in Thailand. Lastly, the financing of Mexico's import terminal was concluded, and the fiscal progress was 48% by the end of October.

Now let's move on to the next slide. The third quarter of 2023 consolidated recurring EBITDA was 34% higher than the previous quarter, totaling $187 million in the quarter. This increase is given mainly by the higher resin sales volume in Brazil, higher Green PE sales, higher PP sales volume in the United States and Europe segment, and the posting of special regime for the chemical industry tax credits, the REIQ, which returned in the third quarter after the signing of the decree that regulated the program.

Let's move on to the next slide. Regarding the results for Brazil segment, the utilization rate in the quarter was up 68%, 4 percentage points inferior to the second quarter of 2023, mainly due to unscheduled shutdowns at Braskem and some major chemical customers. However, Brazil segment presented a 12% increase in sales volume in the national market, above the demand in the period. The export volume was also higher, explained by better opportunities in the international market. In this regard, recurring EBITDA in Brazil was $115 million in the third quarter, representing 63% of the company's consolidated recurring EBITDA and 42% higher than the previous quarter.

Let's move on to the next slide. The green ethylene utilization rate was 108%, an increase of 24 percentage points when compared to the previous quarter. It's worth noting that -- the utilization rates presented in relation to the capacity installed in each quarter. This increase is based on the conclusion of the green ethylene capacity expansion project in Rio Grande do Sul and the result of the initiatives of industrial efficiency implemented by the company during the scheduled shutdown in the first half of 2023. In this scenario, the Green PE sales volume increased 48% in the quarter.

Recently, Braskem opened its first office in Japan. The country has been developing robust public policies for the renewable resins market with well-defined strategies, road maps and goals. The company has as a national goal to introduce about 2 million tons of biopolymer products in its economy by 2030. Those actions reinforced its position as a country with a relevant and strategic market for Braskem's I'm Green PE. Green PE operations integrated Braskem's corporate strategy to 2030 through its bio-based growth avenue, which I will update you in the next slide.

In the quarter, Braskem Siam was incorporated, a joint venture between Braskem and SCG Chemicals for the conduction of the construction of projects of the green ethylene plant in Thailand. The site will have a production capacity of up to 200,000 tons of green ethylene. The project is now under predetailing phase of engineering and expectation of investment is -- will be made by the end of 2024.

I would like to highlight that the technology adopted EtE EverGreen is owned by Braskem and prevenient from a partnership with Lummus Technology. Besides representing Braskem's first industrial footprint in Asia, this project is an important step in our bio-based growth avenue, and it will contribute to the achievement of the commitment of expanding the capacity production of green products to 1 million tons by 2030.

Let's move on to the next slide. We will then discuss the updates on Alagoas geological event. Regarding the financial compensation proposals, we already presented more than 99% of the total estimated proposals, which around 97% were accepted and around 93% were already paid. Their relocation program continues to make progress. And by the end of the quarter, 99.2% were executed.

About closing and monitoring of wells of the sand filling group, 4 wells were concluded, 1 is waiting for the approval of the National Agency of Mining and 4 are in progress. The natural filling group was 100% concluded, and the tamponade and monitoring groups are still in progress. The work groups continue to make progress according to the schedule established with the authorities.

On the next slide, I'll continue discussing about the Alagoas geological event. As for the social urban and environmental development measures, all the 11 mobility actions are ongoing. Of this 11, 8 already have their executive projects concluded, 3 are under construction and 1 project is planned to begin in the fourth quarter of this year. We are still making progress on the urban integration project and the development of the Flexais with the 11 urban requalification actions implemented from the 23 estimated actions.

Lastly, the environmental plan continues to make progress. Regarding the provisions made for the geological event in Alagoas, the total amount provisioned was BRL 14.4 billion, of which were already disbursed BRL 9.2 billion by the end of September 2023. Therefore, the total amount of provisions registered by the end of the third quarter of 2023 was approximately BRL 5.6 billion.

Note that Braskem cannot eliminate the possibility of any future developments related to the matter or the associated expenses. And any costs to be incurred could differ from the -- our estimates or cumulative amounts.

Let's move on to the next slide, when we will discuss the United States and Europe highlights. And in the United States and Europe segment, the utilization rate in the third quarter of 2023 was 81% aligned with the previous quarter and 6 percentage points higher than the third quarter of last year, due to scheduled shutdowns in the same period last year. Sales volumes also remained in line with the previous quarter and rose 7% when compared to the same quarter of last year due to destocking in the period. Recurring EBITDA of the segment totaled $60 million in the quarter and represented 32% of the company's consolidated recurring EBITDA.

Moving on, we will talk about Mexico. Mexico's utilization rate was 66% in the third quarter of 2023 lower than that of the second quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2022 due to unscheduled shutdown in the region because of electrical failures in the national system and by the lower ethane availability by PEMEX. Despite these challenges, the sales volume remained aligned with the previous quarter due to stock optimization in order to supply the clients in the period. The recurring EBITDA of Mexico segment was $8 million, representing 4% of the company's consolidated recurring EBITDA.

Moving on to the next slide, we will talk about the ethane import terminal in Mexico. Terminal Química Puerto México is a company created by Braskem Idesa in a partnership with Advario, concluded the process of financing or maintaining in the amount of $408 million. This is a syndicated project finance loan that involves 6 financial entities with a maturity of 5 years and usual guarantees for this kind of transaction.

Considering this financing, the capital structure of the project will be 30% equity and 70% debt from all resources invested throughout the project. The ethane import terminal integrates Braskem's global strategy for 2030 through the traditional business growth avenue and will permit the supply of up to 80,000 ethane barrels per day to Braskem Idesa, around 120% of its current need and should start its operation by the second half of 2024. The physical progress of the construction was 48% by the end of October 2023.

Let's move on to the next slide, please. Regarding consolidated cash flow, Braskem presented a positive variation in working capital of BRL 1.3 billion due to working capital optimization in the quarter. This positive effect was offset by operational and strategic investments carried out in the period, interest payments and the payment of income tax and social contribution due in the quarter, which led to cash consumption of BRL 329 million in the period. [ EBITDA ] payments related to the geological event in Alagoas, cash consumption in the period totaled around BRL 1.4 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

Let's move on to the next slide, please. Braskem maintained a very long debt profile with an average payment term of 12 years and an average weighted cost of exchange variation of an additional 6.2%. I also highlight that 2/3 of the company's debt is concentrated in 2030 onwards. Braskem's cash position is sufficient to cover its obligation for the next 6 years without considering the international standby credit facility of $1 billion, which is available for the company until 2026. It's also important to highlight that Braskem continue to be an investment-grade company by S&P and Fitch rating agencies.

Moving on to the next slide, we will discuss the corporate credit and leverage metrics. By the end of the quarter, Braskem's corporate leverage was 12.2x due to the lower EBITDA in the last 12 months. The indebtedness level remains stable, aligned with the previous quarter and lower when compared to the quarterly average of the last 6 years. Braskem continues to present solid credit metrics in a healthy and comfortable level of liquidity.

Let's go to the next slide, please. Petrochemical spreads in international markets continue to be pressured during the period as a result of the historically low levels of global demand, combined with the entry into operation of new capacities and consequently, greater supply of products on the market.

However, the path of some spreads during the quarter was upwards between July and September as for polyethylene, mainly due to the increase in the price of petrochemical resins in the international market as a result of the increase in the price of Brent and the naphtha following the OPEC production cut announcements, which impacted the cost of production for marginal producers. The expectation is that 2024 should present a gradual recovery of the petrochemical spreads in the international market. According to the sectors, many external consultants, guiding the industry profitability from a down cycle to an average cycle over the next few years.

Let's move on to the next slide. Regarding Brazil segment, we expect a reduction in the ethylene production levels in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to the maintenance shutdown in the petrochemical complex in Bahia. On the sales front, we expect a reduction in the resin sales volume due to the seasonality of the period and a reduction in the mechanical sales volume due to a lower ethylene utilization rate. Spreads may grow considering the increase in the resins and the main chemical prices in the international market.

For the United States and Europe segment, the utilization rate may remain stable. The sales volume may be lower in the quarter, and the spreads may remain stable.

Lastly, for Mexico, we expect an increase in the production. Sales volume may remain stable considering the inventory recomposing. And spreads are likely to increase due to higher prices in -- of PE in the international market.

Moving on to the next slide, please. We will comment on the update of the initiatives with the impact on the company's EBITDA and cash generation regarding commercial initiatives, which impact the company's revenue through optimization in global commercial management. So we have the intention of maximizing the synergy among the commercial areas. An example of delivery in this front is the optimization of the sales mix of the company.

Moving on to the initiatives that impact the fixed and variable costs. The company has been implementing several actions in addition to a transversal target of reducing fixed costs in the company, which is on track. We are also working on the asset management strategy globally, which resulted in the hibernation of 1 PP line at the Marcus Hook plant in the United States in the renegotiation of contact with the suppliers and optimization of the company's logistics costs. On the working capital front, the company has been working with several efficiency initiatives for the integrated planning cycle, which is generating results through the optimization of its operational and financial cycle.

Regarding CapEx allocation, the company is a CapEx for the year of 2023, 22% lower than last year's CapEx and its achievement is on track. This is due to improvement work in the budgeting and project prioritization process. The company is also working on reassessing its scheduled shutdown strategy. It's worth highlighting that the efficiency initiatives and CapEx allocation do not impact the security of the company's assets or operations.

Finally, the company continues to map and evaluate opportunities to make monetization of adjacent assets such as credit rights, taxes to be recovered and other assets as well as the valuation of the structures to make this monetization feasible. The company reinforced its commitment to continue identifying and implementing opportunities to improve its results and generate value for its shareholders.

Let's move on to the next slide, please. Finally, I would like to invite everyone to participate in our Braskem Day. It will be a great opportunity to understand better the company's diverse businesses, its levers and Braskem's value creation strategy. The event will be fully virtual and will take place on November 27. We will forward the invitation with more details soon to all participants in this call and all those subscribed in our mailing list.

That concludes today's presentation of Braskem's results for the third quarter of 2023. Thank you for your attention. Now let's move on to the question-and-answer session.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will now begin the Q&A session for analysts and investors. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Pedro Soares from BTG Pactual.

[Pedro Soares, analyst]

I have a question with regard to the discussion that Rosana brought about monetizing assets near the end of her remarks. And with regard to the company's leveraging levels and structures, does it also make sense for us to discuss or to consider the company's operating assets, the relevant ones that you could share with us?

I'd also like to ask about the hibernation in the Marcus Hook plant in the United States. And if there are any discussions or points you can make in that regard, that would be very grateful for me.

[Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas, executive]

Hi, Pedro, and good morning, everyone. Now with regard to assets, we always evaluate the asset portfolio as a whole. And I'd like to make a comment with regard to the Marcus Hook plant, that hibernation is largely a result of the fact that there was insufficient raw materials for that line to be operating.

The plant has 2 lines, and they were running under load, under capacity. And so we made a decision based on the fact that it would not be worthwhile to keep that line operational. That's why it was paused. As soon as more inputs are available once again, that production line will come back, and it will be fully productive. So this is a recurring line of thinking that we have at Braskem, it's always something that we are considering.

Now when we think about monetizing assets and leveraging levels, as you mentioned, we have core assets and noncore assets for each operation. And from time to time, we assess our noncore assets. Now specifically, the noncore assets that we have, they have depreciated considerably, so there is a very important amount of the investigation that needs to be made about the capital there.

And when we decided to move forward with some kind of monetization for a noncore asset, it is because we looked at the capital and the impact, so we do analyze that from time to time. And if there is ever a more pressing need, we could monetize those assets if there is fiscal imperative, but we've decided not to do that because we are not in that kind of scenario right now. Now for core assets, that's -- that would be a little bit more difficult.

Braskem over the past 20 years has been consolidating and establishing itself with a focus on the product. So when we look at our product portfolio, our geography and asset portfolios, we do not look at industrial assets and say, "Oh, this is not core for the company. " Now obviously, in a scenario that is different from the one in which we currently find ourselves, where you have significant growth of net debt because we look at net debt considerably.

And we are actually at a lower level of net debt than we traditionally have been. But if a scenario occurs where we have very much net debt, then we could consider that, but I would say that we are not currently in that kind of scenario.

So to summarize, asset monetization is something that we do investigate while managing the company's assets, the noncore ones that we do identify have a fiscal limit that does not explain or justify monetization at the moment. And for core assets, that would be something that we would look at in a different kind of scenario, not the one we're at right now. If that does come to pass, then we could investigate that monetization.

[Pedro Soares, analyst]

I'd just like to ask a follow-up. Would it make sense for us to imagine that in terms of short-term priority, let's say, to protect the company's cash flow and the results that we forecast that would be a little bit lower, this would be the result of a lower CapEx for next year? Even the company's working CapEx, they are likely to be at lower levels than traditionally. So guiding CapEx is a maintenance CapEx, right?

[Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas, executive]

Yes, yes. And I would go back to Slide 18 in Rosana's remarks, which have the results for this year. For next year, we continue to emphasize and to reinforce those measures. In the commercial efforts, we continue to seek more profitable market conditions that will increase our value. And I think that something that should bring some benefits for next year, especially considering the full year, the closed year, we have the green ethane -- ethylene sorry, and this is going to bring some positive results. And also, we have adjustments to various business lines.

The fixed cost for next year, we have defined a fixed target for next year to reduce beyond inflation changes. So for 2024, the number that -- we're currently working on the budget, but it's going to be 2% to 5% lower than the number for this year. So we're going to absorb inflation and additionally reduce fixed costs. This could mean an additional $100 million perhaps just in the reduction alone. Now -- and if we consider inflation, it's more than that.

And working capital continues to be a large and primary focus of ours. There are some short-term decisions we make. But then there are some structural decisions as well that we are also analyzing, and we will start to see some benefits of these structural changes that we have been making in managing our working capital CapEx for next year.

There's a positive aspect next year, which is there is not going to be a general pause next year. So we are moving to make it so that next year's CapEx is under $500 million. We are still trying to reach a number that is significantly and materially lower than what we have today. We have the terminal next year as well, so that's something we're looking at separately.

And we're also looking for other opportunities to monetize assets, some other assets that we own, so we remain working on all of these efforts. And when we look at the projections, again, we don't see a situation that would lead us to have to make any more expressive conversions.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Gabriel Barra from Citibank.

[Gabriel Coelho Barra, analyst]

I have 2 points I'd like to explore a little bit more. The first is with regard to the recent news. I think we -- it was mentioned 2 to 3 calls ago, with -- I know it's difficult to talk about it, offers, and there has been discussion, I know, but could you please explain a little bit more about the details of the tagalong and perhaps the -- with regard to the shareholders' agreement? This is -- I'm wondering about the controlling structure. Is there any light you could shed on that? It would be interesting to start thinking about potential future M&As in this context.

And the second question is about Alagoas. There was that relevant fact that the company has been discussing the relationship between the company and the state that has been making moves in Alagoas, and there are some points to be discussed there. So could you please give us a few thoughts about the scope of this item, this call?

[Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas, executive]

Well, for [indiscernible], the information that we have is reflected in the relevant fact that we published this morning. And the tagalong is going to respect all legislations and the structure that is already in place.

Now what -- you asked about whether Novonor will continue to have a minority position whether or not that triggers a tagalong clause. Well, strictly speaking, tagalong clauses pertain to changes in control. So if Novonor stops being a controller, then that would be triggered. But we don't yet know how this structure could be organized or how it should be organized or enacted even. So I think at the end of the day, it really is going to depend on how these different aspects are actually implemented.

So I'm sorry I can't be of more help to brainstorm really because we, ourselves, need more clarity about Novonor's movements and the consequences thereof and whether or not there's going to be a tagalong. But it's -- at the end of the day, it's about -- it is triggered when there is a change in control. So that's when tagalong clause is triggered.

Now there's something else that I think is important. It -- we definitely should reflect on this. At the moment, this is a nonbinding offer. And I think that if there is a binding offer that is made, then we will know in more details how this is going to work out.

Now with regard to Alagoas, we have an initiative, a lawsuit that the state of Alagoas moved against Braskem, asking for -- essentially for reparations. So the main topics there are, firstly, assets that belong to the state of Alagoas that were located in that region and that we're in one way or another lost or have become unusable. These assets are already accounted for in our provisions, and we agree, this is reparation that must be paid. This amount has been provisioned, and this has -- actually has been sent to the court already. Now -- so we do believe that the reparation should be paid in that purview.

There is another element there, which is the concept of lost profits from taxes, lost taxes. There was the ICMS tax that was claimed to be lost profit by the state government. And we do not agree with that claim. We do not agree with the state government in that aspect. So the state government has filed a suit.

There was an initial court decision saying that these costs are owed and Braskem was mandated to reimburse the state government, including for the loss of potential tax revenue. Now we have appealed that case, that lawsuit. And we are going to remain alert. And I mean I'm not a lawyer, and I don't know enough about Brazilian legislation to really give you a qualified answer, but we are positive that this topic does merit a lot of investigation by the judiciary. And we can't create a precedent that is founded on incorrect assumptions. And this would be bad for Brazil as a whole, not just for ourselves.

So in short, we are discussing with the judiciary and with the state of Alagoas about how that's going to proceed moving forward. So that -- to summarize, we do agree about the properties, and we do not agree about the taxes, and this is going to be discussed in court.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Milene Carvalho from JPMorgan.

[Milene Carvalho, analyst]

I have 2 questions on my side. The first in fact is a follow-up on the previous question related to Alagoas. I think you did not disclose the amount involved. We read some articles in the press and in the CapEx that you've raised about the damages and loss of profit, which would be the amount that is requested by the government, state government.

My second question is related to the outlook for the fourth quarter. You exceeded your expectations. I think we've had many challenging quarters for the chemical industry. And when we look at the starting point, especially related to Brazil, whose contribution is the most important one. So we see the level of capacity and for the fourth quarter, we have the stoppage at Bahia facilities. And we are not going to have the destocking effect that we had in the previous quarter. How do you see these operational pathways for the fourth quarter items of recovery?

[Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas, executive]

With regard to the state government's lawsuit, we -- that -- those numbers have been posted, the value is BRL 1.4 billion. What has been provisioned, now I don't have the exact number, but it's somewhere between BRL 200 million and BRL 300 million. So that portion has been provisioned already and the total value is $1.4 billion.

With regard to the fourth quarter, we have the -- we have expectations and forecasts that will -- that point to improvements, but with the pause in Bahia, as you mentioned, production volume should remain at a lower level. Now it's important to note that even with a lower production level, we are not -- today, we are not being limited in our sales volume by production volumes. If we had more demand from the market, we would be selling more. And the research we've done corroborates that if there is demand from the market.

And especially in Brazil, this is stronger than in other markets. There is a large volume of products that suffer from seasonality. And we've currently wrapped the third quarter. So our expectation, our forecast is that there should be a drop in sales in Brazil, but a recovery in our results, a compensation effect.

We are currently -- today is November 9. So we have not yet closed the month of October. But talking to the sales department and internal departments, we have seen that October, it was apparently a good month for us. So that combines with something else that we see in Braskem today, there are a few business lines of ours that are very resilient. We have solvents, fuels. We have a number of different business lines that don't really -- very, very much, they don't oscillate in volume. So today, they do have a relevant weight in our numbers. So we see stronger resilience within that lower level and a recovery, especially in PE and PP, where we obviously have more room for recovery when the market recovers.

So just to recap, I think for the fourth quarter, we do, in fact, foresee a lower volume of sales but better spreads. And for the next year, I think we still have a low cycle in our sites for the coming year. But the -- I think this isn't in the presentation. But with regard to our spreads in 2024, we will remain at a lower level with lower spreads, but they may possibly improve compared to 2023. And the recovery is also going to come around the end of 2024, perhaps '25, that's when we will see more of a recovery moving forward in a high level by 2026, perhaps.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Tasso Vasconcellos from UBS.

[Tasso Vasconcellos, analyst]

I have a question that's actually a follow-up to the tagalong discussion. I think it's very clear conceptually when the tagalong clause will be triggered, when there's a change of control, but what about the converse element, the opposite of that? When will the tagalong not be triggered?

So to add on, what is Novonor's controlling structure at Braskem like today? And is it possible for this acquisition to come from a holding? And so that would impede any kind of controlling change, right? So when would the tagalong not be triggered? That's my question.

[Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas, executive]

Now about the controlling structure, it is indirect control. So Novonor has a company in the Novonor Group, it's called NSP Investments. And NSP is a company that holds Braskem's shares. So it is indirect control from Novonor S.A.

And about the tagalong clause, I'm going to ask Rosana to go into more detail because she has studied this in more detail. I think she can give you a more objective answer.

[Rosana Avolio, executive]

Tasso, thank you for the question. Here, we are working with a scenario which has a lot of uncertainties as well. All discussions for those interested in acquiring the company does not involve Braskem but only the shareholders. So we are only considering the possibilities, but I'm going to see what the rules say. If there is a change in -- of controller that [indiscernible] controller. And if there's a change in the controlling equity, there's a tagalong for the OM and the shareholders.

I would like to remind you that Braskem is level 1. And if I can see their level 1 rules, so I would have to apply the [ incidence of ] ordinary shares. And if there is something additional, I will have to make regulations. Why do I say that? Because in our corporate document, we say, if it would be Petrobras who makes the position, the tagalong will not be triggered. So I -- they're ruled. So it's 80% of those who hold ordinary shares. Now if the structure is 1B or C, in fact, we cannot even have a position because at the end of the day, it depends on other elements because this is not a discussion in which we take part, but rather the shareholders.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from [ Andre Rizzo ] from XP Investments.

[Unknown Analyst]

I have a couple of questions here. First is, could you please go into a bit more detail about how you foresee the supply of ethane, and specifically over the coming year?

And my next question is, could you please go into a bit more detail about how you see the aspect of the spreads in the market? You recently -- just now mentioned that you think the spreads are going to be a little tighter, but what kind of triggers should we be on the lookout for to see when the market is going to turn around? Have you seen any indicators in that regard? It would be nice for us to have an advance notice.

[Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas, executive]

Thank you, Andre. Now with regard to PEMEX, we have a contractual agreement, 30,000 barrels a day, which is approximately 35% of Braskem's capacity. And any additional capacity that Braskem produces and does not consume internally. So that works out to giving us access to important volume.

PEMEX has been producing considerable volume in production. That volume has fallen, but what I've been hearing from specialists in Mexico is that there is a very slight growth in the offer of domestic ethane in Mexico. Historically, PEMEX has been consuming 20,000 to 30,000 barrels a day, but there's a lot of volatility in that internal consumption. So there are times when they don't consume anything. And other times, they consume more. So there's a lot of variance there.

So looking at the fourth quarter and for next year, it's very difficult to foresee because it really depends on PEMEX's operational productivity and in their consumption of ethane for their activities, too. But what we have been seeing is that they have been providing -- supplying even more than the minimum required by contract per day. But it's hard to give you a very clear forecast because there's a lot of variance. It's very volatile. So it depends significantly on their oil and gas production.

Now about your question regarding market perspectives and offside possibilities. Today, our numbers, and I'm looking at the 2024 scenario and the fact that the spreads are likely to be similar to 2023, we have low demand around the world. We don't have any forecast for increasing demand. We do not have any material recovery being foreseen onshore or offshore.

So on the demand side of things, the offside that we see -- because we're considering 2% to 2.5% improvement around the world. And now if the world recovers by 3% or 3.5%, the demand for petrochemical products, that would mean a significant offside on the demand side of things. And that means that there is a recovery in a global level.

Now on the offer side, there are a number of different offers that have been mapped with our consulting. We map these numbers around the globe. And so we are considering supply side increases. Now what is not under construction will not be considered. So the offside number is a stronger rationalization. We're forecasting 2% to 2.5% improvement for next year. If it is bigger than that -- as we saw in the 2008, 2009 crisis, we saw 7% recovery. So if we see more expressive recovery in capacity, then we do have more options in responding to that. And then that would be very significant. It depends on the movements of the different players.

We are going through this same situation, and it's a very difficult decision to make to pause a plant, to halt a production line. We've done this and seen this before in production lines that we paused. The last one that we paused was in Bahia that was 1 or 2 years ago. And it's always a very rational decision, right? Delicate decision. Because we know that shutting down a plant is going to have consequences around the market. So it's a very strong, strong decision.

So we imagine that all players are studying the situation and figuring out what can be shut down, what can't, given the current economic scenario and especially what's coming from China. So that being said, we think there is a potential offside in rationalization. And now what I can't easily give you is the timing.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Rodrigo Almeida from Santander.

[Rodrigo Reis de Almeida, analyst]

I'd like to ask you about another point that I think hasn't been brought up here today. You talked a little bit about the local competition in the local industry. I wanted to get a little bit more context from you. We've seen the recovery of REIQ, and I think that helped. And I'd like to ask a little bit more, but what else can be done? Is there anything scheduled with regard to imports?

I think you mentioned for 2008, 2009, there was something similar in there -- in the level. So I'd like to ask you what points we can look at, how the industry is organizing itself to once again increase the level of competition, that would be great.

[Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas, executive]

Rodrigo, yes, we do -- we have in some direct discussions within Braskem and public sector representatives. We have been discussing the productivity of the petrochemical industry, both with the federal and state governments. Because after all, when we look at the chemical industry, we see an industry that has a significant percentage of the Brazilian GDP, 11% is the chemical industry with jobs that pay considerably more than average.

These positions, I think, it is definitely -- they make it so that it's very much in the government's interest to have a strong chemical industry. And it's also a baseline production, a baseline industry, when you increase the chemical industry production, there's a ride-on effect for the whole country. With -- and we've been discussing in the different states and federal representatives, they do understand the value that we bring.

On the other hand, there is a low that we've been seeing. But right now we do see a level of protection, federal protection. Many different countries are becoming very protective, and they are implementing material road blocks. And actually, some countries even have significant incentives for exports.

So if the domestic market is at a low point, let's pay incentives for exporters and -- for importers, rather, and so that would have certain consequences. That's what these federal incentive programs are meant to do. And we have been seeing lower levels of tax income for the government recently. So that brings to -- like brings some questions about the productivity of certain plants.

Now all of this is in the list of things we've been discussing with these public sector representatives. And we've seen that some of these measures that they have been implementing are important in keeping the Brazilian chemical industry competitor. Essentially, there are 2 types, 2 aspects. One is developing ways of balancing this gain. And as you mentioned, this speaks to the resumption of imports and import taxes.

So there's a reduction that was implemented that ends now in December, 11.2%, and it is now going to be returned to 12.4%. So these measures are in the boundary because they serve to balance out some of the incentives that other governments abroad have been implementing. So we in Brazil are working to counter that.

And secondly, we looked at the gap in competitive values that Brazil has, the complexity of doing business in Brazil, so there are some structural issues that Brazil does need to work out. These things take many years to be worked out. They're not something that can be done in the short term. So we do also have short-term measures. The resumption of REIQ, for instance, to balance out or try to balance out these levels in the industry. It -- the REIQ is not enough yet.

We believe that we may even need to bring that tax back to levels -- the emergency levels that they were at 2 to 3 years ago for at least a couple of years until we see the cycle recovering once again. This is all part of the discussions we've been having with the state government and federal government. And we understand that they do understand this, but these measures take some time to be implemented. So I think my answer for you is, yes, we are engaged in dialogue with the public sector, but it's going to take a while.

[Rodrigo Reis de Almeida, analyst]

That was an excellent answer, and that reminds me of something else I wanted to ask you. We're strongly focused on the short term and the spreads and what they look like today and also the foreign incentives, but what about in the medium to long term? What do you think could perhaps be more structural leveraging levels for our domestic industry to ramp up its productivity once again?

[Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas, executive]

Well, Rodrigo, I think there are 2 main factors, and then there is a third factor that's a little bit more generic. The first is raw materials. We have the pre-salt layer as a major reserve of raw materials that can be used by the chemical industry. So as we move forward in exploring these pre-salt basins, it's important for us to continue discussing with the public sector how we can make it viable for that raw material to arrive at the end of the production line with the competitive volume and cost.

That's an important discussion with the petrochemical industries, as was done with oil and gas in the U.S., as is done in the Middle East and every other producer of hydrocarbons. At the end of the day, they do have significant potential to involve the petrochemical industry with competitive numbers, but the work needs to be done. And here, we have a bio raw material, biological raw material, which is bioethanol. So there is another significant opportunity that Brazil has. And we have, too, been discussing with the public sector.

So the first major factor is raw material. The second major factor is gas, which for some sectors is a raw material. And I'm talking about natural gas, not methane or ethane. For us, it's energy, and competitive energy costs after raw materials comes energy. So competitive energy costs for -- and gas will allow us to grow and this is crucial for us to make our numbers more competitive.

And the third factor, I would say, is much more about the cost of doing business in Brazil. The other day, I saw an article in the paper talking about a company, I don't recall which one, saying that they have 100 employees for Brazilian tax in their Brazilian departments and only 3 people in their U.S. tax department. Now this is not exactly Braskem because we have people divided between legal and financial. But we have roughly 100 people in Brazil, that's how many people it takes.

And in the U.S., it's just 3. They -- in the U.S., we don't even have a legal fiscal department. In Mexico, we have 4. In Europe and -- listen, in Europe, we do business in many different countries. And each country has different tax laws that we must comply with. We have 4 people in the fiscal department for Europe. So there is a lot of bureaucracy here in Brazil, and it's very difficult to comply with all these -- all the different laws that we have here.

So this brings an additional overhead in the cost for Brazilian companies that is very, very significant. And we hope that the tax reform goes through Congress speedily so that we can see what that's going to mean. Now just -- that's just one of the aspects of the cost of doing business in Brazil, security, the quality of our infrastructure and roadways, too.

Actually, there's something else, education, too, because let me give you an example. In Germany, we have far fewer people. We need fewer people to operate the plants than in Brazil because German technicians have much more education, and they can make more complex decisions. They may not even need to have more people because each employee has more independence and that is because they have been more educated. That, too, is another element of the cost of doing business in Brazil. So the first is raw materials. The second is energy, especially gas. And thirdly, this Brazil cost, the cost of doing business in Brazil.

[Operator]

Now we completed our question-and-answer session. I will now pass the conference to Mr. Roberto Bischoff, CEO of Braskem, for his final remarks.

[Roberto Bischoff, executive]

Thank you.

Good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you all for taking part in our earnings call. And I would like to take this final opportunity to make a few remarks of my own. The first is clearly the timing, the current timing of the industry. And I'd like to reinforce our efforts, our continuous efforts to find and implement initiatives that are focused on protecting our financials. These initiatives also strive to prioritize our capital assignment.

Now as we have been mentioning and also, as we mentioned in the previous quarter's earnings call, our industry is very cyclical and in a moment of a low cycle as we are seeing today, and we have been through similar low cycles in the past, this is the type of initiative we need to continue to strive for, we need to seek out more operating efficiency and reduced costs in general. And we have clearly been doing that. And this will remain in the company's focus for the present moment.

For -- now with regard to the global industry in this quarter, we have started seeing in a few products that there is a growing trajectory in some spreads in the international market. And some foreign consulting firms have already indicated that there is a not striking, but an accident recovery nonetheless, and we hope that this will reflect in higher profitability for the industry, especially over the coming years.

But it's also important to comment that within this scenario, we have been implementing initiatives to protect our financials in the short term. But at the same time, we will also be preparing the company for the coming future, striving to capture value in growth projects that are being implemented today.

And in that sense, I would like to highlight and also comment on the green ethane -- ethylene project in Thailand, which is forecast to have a final decision in the end of 2024. There's also the ethane import terminal in Mexico that allows Braskem to reach a new level with regard to its raw material. This will also allow us to start constructing different options to expand our capacity, among others.

So we have clearly been prioritizing initiatives that are compatible with the need to be resilient. The company must be resilient at low moments such as this, but without losing sight of and without failing to invest in efforts to consolidate and expand Braskem to make us more and more competitive and better prepared for the future.

Now looking into the topic that Pedro commented on, I'd like to conclude by saying, by highlighting the importance of the chemical industry in Brazil and its structural effect on the Brazilian economy. Our industry is responsible for creating 2 million direct and indirect jobs in Brazil. These are high-quality jobs, as Pedro highlighted very, very wisely. And the Brazilian, industry according to the Brazilian Association of Chemical Industries, this result, this effect is present in many different industries and in all of our lines.

The Brazilian chemical industry is going through a very peculiar moment and has been doing business at its lowest level since the past 17 years. And this is during a substantial import of foreign chemical products. We've discussed a bit about why that is and the competitive nature of some products compared to Brazil. And Brazil also has the -- a very low ability to protect its industry and to limit the entrance of foreign products in some locations. It does make efforts, but a lot still slips through their fingers.

So that being said, I'd like to highlight the crucial importance of the REIQ to guarantee the competitive nature of Brazil's chemical industry and its percentage in line with the importance and the gravity of the current scenario with a clear objective of trying to minimize differences in cost and competitivity compared to the global industry, while ensuring the creation of jobs, the creation of income, investments for our economy. So I'd like to conclude really with that remark the importance of our current timing.

Lastly, I'd like to thank all of you once again for the trust that you invest in us and for taking part in our call today. And we will see each other once again on Braskem Day on November 27. Thanks to all of you once again, and have a great day.

[Operator]

Thank you. This concludes the Braskem video conference for today. Thank you very much for your participation. Have a great afternoon.