Minerva SA

BOVESPA:BEEF3

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Minerva Foods' First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Joining us today are Mr. Fernando Galletti de Queiroz, CEO; and Mr. Edison Ticle, CFO and IRO. We would like to inform you that this presentation is being recorded and translated simultaneously. The translation is available by clicking on the interpretation button. For those listening to the video conference in English, there is an option to mute the original audio in Portuguese by clicking on mute original audio. We would also like to inform you that the presentation is available for download at ri.minervafoods.com in the Presentations section. During the company's presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. We'll later begin the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions]. I would like to clarify that any statements that may be made during this video conference regarding Minerva Foods business prospects, operational and financial goals are projections made by the company's management, which may or may not materialize. Investors should understand that political, macroeconomic, and other operational factors may affect the futures results of the company and lead to numbers that differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. I now turn the floor over to Mr. Fernando de Queiroz, CEO, who will begin the presentation. Please, Mr. de Queiroz, you may proceed.

[Fernando De Queiroz, executive]

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Minerva Foods' First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Minerva starts the year of 2024 by reaffirming the consistency and discipline of its business strategy, delivering a solid set of results. Minerva Foods geographical diversity once again proved to be an important pillar in the company's operational and commercial execution, mitigating risks and expanding its arbitrage capability, a key component for the performance that we achieved. Strengthening the corporate strategy in Minerva Foods leadership in South America. In Q1 '24, our gross revenue totaled BRL 7.7 billion, with EBITDA reaching BRL 629 million. Over the last 12 months, we achieved around JPY 30 billion in gross revenue with adjusted EBITDA totaling BRL 2.7 billion. Free cash flow generation, a priority for the company remains a highlight, reaching BRL 367 million in the quarter, or 1.3 billion in the last 12 months. Cash generation continues helping us for our capital balance, which closed the quarter at a stable level at the 2.8x net debt over EBITDA level. As in previous quarters, I would like to comment on the process of acquiring Marfrig's selected assets in South America. As everyone knows, in August 23, Minerva Foods announced the acquisition of 16 industrial units in South America, located in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile, which remain under review by the antitrust authorities in each region. Our management's focus remains on concluding this process with the antitrust authorities as quickly as possible so that we can then proceed with integrating the new assets into Minerva Foods operational park. As soon as the regulatory approval processes are completed, the company will provide an update to the market. As usual, in our conference calls, before we move on to the highlights of the quarter, I would like to share with you a bit overview on the global animal protein market. The outlook for the beef market remains very promising. The imbalance between global supply and demand remains one of the main factors in our industry. In one of its worst livestock cycles, the United States stands out as an important importing market due to the strong supply constraint the company face -- the country faces, which is expected to persist for the next 2 to 3 years. On the other hand, South America continues with a positive outlook, benefiting from the current situation of its livestock cycles with Brazilians slaughter numbers reaching records in the first months of the year. Animal availability remains strong and promising in a very attractive scenario for the coming periods. In addition to Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay also stemmed out with a favorable moment in their herd recomposition. In this context, I would like to highlight Minerva Foods arbitrage capability in constant pursuit of the best commercial opportunities in our operational origins with agility, focus, discipline, and consistency. In line with the strategy, we obtained 2 important market pyramids in China. Minerva also gained access to the Chinese market through our 2 plants in Colombia, adding 1,550 had days of capacity. In addition to the significant staff for the Colombian market, we also obtained permits for 2 more plants in Brazil, Janauba and Araguaina. Considering the entire industrial park of Minerva will total a slower capacity of 14,600 herd days of exposure to the Chinese market. Again, I emphasize the importance of our geographical diversification strategy and market arbitrage, which increasingly allows us to expand our access to markets and thus help us mitigate risks. In addition to our optimism about the international beef market, we remain confident about the prospects in the domestic market, particularly in Brazil. The recovery of income and employment levels, together with the expectation of a more favorable economic scenario, along with the maintenance of a positive livestock cycle are leading to a recovery of the Brazilian domestic market. Let's now turn to our performance in Q1 2024. Moving on to Slide 2. Starting with gross revenue, which totaled BRL 7.7 billion in Q1 '24 and BRL 29.5 billion year-to-date. Exports accounted for 58% of consolidated gross revenue in the quarter and 64% year-to-date, remaining one of the company's main operational drivers, attesting to Minerva Foods' commercial expertise in serving the international market. As I mentioned earlier, it's worth noting, the recovery of the domestic market, expanding the company's commercial opportunities. Now moving on to our operational profitability. EBITDA in Q1 reached BRL 629 million, up 18% year-over-year, with EBITDA margin expanding to 8.8%. Over the last 12 months, Minerva Foods adjusted EBITDA was BRL 2.7 billion, with margin of 9.6%. I want to highlight here our free cash flow generation, which totaled significant BRL 367 million in Q1 '24, accumulating around BRL 1.3 billion over the last 12 months, resulting in an annualized free cash flow yield of 35%. This result reflects the operational, commercial, and financial excellence of the company where cash generation is one of the main focuses of our management. Finally, regarding our capital structure, we ended Q1 with stable adjusted net leverage at 2.8x net debt over EBITDA and comfortable liquidity with a solid cash position of BRL 15.8 billion. Let's now move on to Slide 3, and detail on the highlights of the first quarter. As I've been mentioning in recent conference calls, the imbalance between supply and demand continues to provide us with new accesses to important markets. In March, we got 4 important permits for China. In Colombia, our 2 plants were approved, totaling the daily capacity of 1,500 head a day. In Brazil, we had the approval of 2 plants from our industrial park, which ended up consolidating our exposure to 14,600 head a day. To the Chinese market, expanding the company's commercial opportunities there. Now about our capital structure, we issued in March, the 14th debenture totaling BRL 2 billion. And at the end of the quarter, we accessed the market with the issuance of BRL 500 million in commercial paper aiming to improve our capital structure. Edison will provide more details on these operations later. In our sustainability agenda, one of Minerva's main corporate values, we reached 100% monitoring of direct suppliers in Argentina, 6 years ahead of the scheduled time line. In Uruguay, we continue to progress, and we are already monitoring over 90% of direct supplier farms in the country. Also, in Q1 24, our subsidiary, MyCarbon established a partnership with multinational company, Yara, a world leader in plant nutrition to develop actions for the recovery and increase of pasture land productivity in Renove programs participating farms. In addition, we continue to actively collaborate with the livestock of the future project focusing on pasture recovery, thus seeking a more efficient and sustainable productive model for Brazilian livestock. On the institutional front, we received recognition for Minerva's Foods global operations with a Great Place to Work certification, and we were ranked among the top 10 Brazilian companies at the Forest 500, and we're ranking an important recognition of Minerva Foods sustainability initiatives. Moving on to Slide 4 now to discuss a bit about Minerva Foods export market in the first quarter of 2024. In Q1, we continue to lead in beef exports from South America with approximately 20% market share in the continent, once again, reinforcing the competitive advantages of our geographic diversification strategy. In the upper quadrant of the slide, we have a breakdown of gross revenue by destination in Q1 '24. The Americas region was the main driver of gross revenue with a total of 38%. Brazil standing out at 21% and Chile at 8%. Following closely is the Asian continent with 21% of the total gross revenue, with China accounting for 14% of those. In contrast to previous periods, the first quarter of '24 was characterized by a reduction in exposure to the Chinese market, largely due to less competitive prices. However, it's important to highlight Minerva Foods operational and commercial agility, which through its market arbitrage capability is able to access virtually 100% of international markets. This provides us with the ability to redirect the supply from our origins to more attractive markets. On the bottom right, we have further details regarding the performance of our exports, both of our beef operations here in South America and our lamb operations in Australia. Starting with the 2 charts on the left and focusing on our beef operations. Asia remains a highlight in the quarter, totaling 31% of exports revenue, followed by NAFTA with 18%, Americas with 16, and Commonwealth of Independent States with 14. Over the last 12 months, Asia also remained a highlight accounting for 37% of our revenue, followed by Americas with 19%, commonwealth of independent space with 13%, NAFTA with 12% and the Middle East with 9%. It's worth noting here the increase in NAFTA's share in our revenue, a growth that highlights our view that the shortage of animals in the U.S. directly benefits farmers in South America. Currently, and reflecting our geographic diversification, Minerva Foods accesses the U.S. markets through its operations in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay. In addition to U.S.A., another highlight in the region is the Mexican market whose exposure to American production is expected to provide larger opportunities for exporters from our region. On the right, you can see the details of Australian operations whose main destination is NAFTA with 45% share, followed by Asia with 23%, and the Middle East with 14%. Europe and Oceania follow with 8% each. In the last 12 months, NAFTA remains the main destination with a 38% share, Asia with 24 Middle East with 19%, Europe with 8; and finally, Oceania with 8. Before handing over to Edison, I would like to state once again how optimistic we are about the global animal protein market. Recent permits show us that we have great opportunities ahead of us. The imbalance between supply and demand continues to provide a good environment of opportunities in the global market, largely due to the positive livestock cycle in Brazil and negative in the U.S.A. And again, I emphasize our ability to arbitrage the international market, mitigating risks, maximizing operational efficiency, and adding value to our operations. Furthermore, we see a consistently increased recovery of the domestic market, which will broaden Minerva Foods range of commercial opportunities over the coming periods. We continue with our strategy and focus on our business model, always attentive to our risk management, exploring more efficient solutions, investing in innovation to achieve increasingly efficient, operational, commercial, and logistical solutions. Now, I turn the floor over to Edson to present our financial and operational performance in greater detail.

[Edison de Andrade Melo e Souza Filho, executive]

Thank you, Fernando. Good morning, everyone. Let's get started on Slide 5. I will first talk about operational performance in gross revenue in Q1 '24 and in the last 12 months. In line with our focus on exports, the external market accounted for 60% of gross revenue in the quarter and 65% in the last 12 months completed in Q1 '24. In the breakdown by region, exports in Brazil operations reached 52% in the quarter and 62% in the last 12 months. In the LatAm operations, excluding Brazil, exports accounted for 69% of gross revenue, both in the quarter and in the last 12 months. With the lamb operations in Australia was no different. Exports also reached 69% of gross revenue by the end of Q1 '24 and 67% for the last 12 months. As mentioned by Fernando, it's worth highlighting the positive performance of the Brazilian domestic market, which has emerged as a highly attractive commercial alternative both in volume and prices, and hence has expanded its share in our sales portfolio. On the right-hand side of the slide, we can see a breakdown by Origin. Brazil remains prominent accounting for 51% of gross revenue in the quarter and 49% in the last 12 months, followed by Argentina, which was the second main origin in the quarter with 13% and 9% in the last 12 months. Paraguay, 12% of revenue in the quarter, and 15% in the last 12 months, while Uruguay had 10% and 12% of the revenue in the quarter in the last 12 months, respectively. Australia accounted for 7% of revenue, both in the quarter and in the last 12 months, and Colombia had a 4% share in our breakdown in the first quarter of 24 and in the last 12 months. Finally, the other category refers to the former Trading division, which contributed to 3% of our revenue in the quarter and 4% in the last 12 months. Now let's move on to Slide 6 to talk about net revenue and EBITDA. Net revenue reached BRL 7.2 billion in Q1, up 13% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter. Over the last 12 months, revenue totaled BRL 27.7 billion. Now about profitability. EBITDA for the quarter was BRL 629 million, up 18% against the same quarter of 23% and 4% quarter-on-quarter with an EBITDA margin of 8.8%. In the last 12 months, our EBITDA totaled BRL 2.7 billion with an EBITDA margin of 9.6%. I would like to draw your attention on this slide to the regularity and consistency of our margins over the last period. This shows not only our commitment and discipline of risk management, but also how successful our geographic diversification strategy is allowing us to arbitrage between the main beef markets, always with the aim of maximizing our margins. Now on Slide 7, let's talk about financial leverage. Our leverage ratio measured by the indicator net debt over EBITDA in the last 12 months and adjusted by the pro forma EBITDA of BPU of BRL 29 million relative to the 5 months prior to its incorporation in our financial statements ended Q1 stable at 2.8x. It's worth noting that this indicator like in previous quarters, does not consider the down payment of BRL 1.5 billion regarding the acquisition of Marfrig's assets in South America as the acquisition has not been finalized yet. Now let's talk about net income and operational cash flow. In the quarter, our net income was negative at BRL 186 million. It's worth noting that the net income for the period was impacted by the noncash effect of the exchange variation. Excluding this effect, the net profit for the quarter would have reached around BRL 80 million. Over the last 12 months, net income totaled BRL 95 million. And considering the adjustment in the last quarter, BRL 175 million. Now on the right-hand side of the slide, we can see operational cash flow in the quarter, which was positive at BRL 1.4 billion. In the last 12 months, operational cash flow totaled JPY 4.1 billion. I want to emphasize here the excellence of our operational and commercial execution despite market movements. Operational cash generation of Minerva Foods remains consistent and at significant higher levels when compared to the company's financial expenses or the company's interest payable. Now moving on to Slide 9 to talk about free cash flow generation. booting up the cash flow this quarter, we start with an EBITDA of BRL 629 million with CapEx of approximately BRL 175 million, focused on maintenance, around BRL 135 million in maintenance and organic expansion investments at around BRL 40 million. And we also have the working capital line, which released BRL 318 million this quarter, mainly due to supplier and accounts receivable. And then we have the base cash financial result, which was negative at BRL 404 million this quarter. And so, if we add things up, we have a recurring cash generation of approximately BRL 367 million in Q1. I would like to highlight, once again, the discipline and consistency of our risk management and strategy, always aiming to maintain Minerva Foods financial balance. Looking at the last 12 months, free cash flow was positive at BRL 1.3 billion already considering the impacts of ALC and BPU acquisitions throughout the period. Building up, we start with an EBITDA of BRL 2.7 billion with CapEx of BRL 756 million, then we have the positive working capital variation of BRL 1.3 billion in the base cash financial result, which was negative at around BRL 1.7 billion. It's worth noting that this increase in our financial result reflects the new debt issuance that we made recently to prepare the company's cash position and capital structure to make the payments of the acquisitions. Summing up all the variables, we arrived at a recurring free cash flow of BRL 1.5 billion for the last 12 months closed in Q1 2024. Adding the ALC and BPU acquisitions, our cash flow totaled BRL 1.3 billion, resulting in an annualized free cash flow yield of around 35%. If we look at the company's market cap and our consistent free cash flow generation, which should be among the top free cash flow yield of the stock market today. Again, I would like to highlight Minerva Foods' financial and operational strategy, which with all the dedication and effort of our team continues to deliver a solid and consistent level of cash generation. Now moving on to Slide 10. Let's talk about the bridge of our net debt. At the end of the previous quarter our net debt totaled BRL 7.4 billion. In the net debt bridge of the first quarter, we have the free cash flow, which totaled BRL 367 million with a positive impact, reducing our debt. We also have exchange variation of BRL 309 million with a negative impact on our debt, and finally, a positive effect of BRL 174 million from noncash derivatives, both FX and inflation derivatives in sample fixed issuances. We hired a derivative, so not to be exposed to the inflation rate variation, which in this quarter, had a negative effect, increasing our debt by BRL 174 million. By summing up all of these variables in assembling the bridge, we arrived at a stable net debt of around BRL 7.4 billion to BRL 7.5 billion. Moving on now to the next slide. Let's talk about our capital structure. As I mentioned earlier, net leverage measured by the net debt over adjusted EBITDA ratio closed the quarter stable at 2.8x. We continue with our conservative cash policy. The cash position at the end of Q1 was at approximately BRL 16 billion and a debt duration of approximately 4.6 years, with about 84% of our debt maturing in the long-term, as you can see in the amortization flow at the bottom of the slide. Now about our debt profile, about 63% of the debt is exposed to exchange rate variation. And I want to remind you once again that we have a strict hedge policy that determines that the company must maintain at least 40% of the long-term exposure hedged, and we are currently at 50% to 52%. And I would also like to remind you of our most recent liability management operations. We issued debentures as CRA backing totaling BRL 2 billion in 3 series, all indexed to the CDI. And we completed a commercial paper issuance worth BRL 500 million. All these transactions were carried out at timely moments in the credit market with the aim of maintaining a solid and sound capital structure and contributing the company's high liquidity level, pushing the cost of that down and decreasing the burden of our capital structure. In conclusion, I would like to reinforce Fernando's comment regarding the acquisition process of the new assets. We're fully focused on completing the next steps away in regulatory approval, and internally, we are preparing to start the integration process as soon as possible. As soon as the process moves forward and we get any additional information, we will provide an update to the market. Now I hand the floor over to the operator to start the Q&A session. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. We're now going to start the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions]. Please wait while we poll for questions. Our first question is by Leonardo Alencar, an analyst at XP. Leonardo, you have the floor.

[Leonardo Alencar, analyst]

I'd like to understand a bit more about these market dynamics. We had a positive surprise with the slaughtering numbers in the beginning of the year, especially in Brazil. And talking about the pricing dynamics also of the second half of last year with this volume of cattle availability, I'd say the price of cattle did not react as much as we expected, but the internal market performed really well. So, when it comes to origination, have you changed your strategies for 2024 in terms of hedging policy, does that change now that you have a more comfortable level of cattle availability? And the working capital was favored by the scenario. So, does that change your origination strategy? Now Fernando, you also talked about the U.S.A. and the livestock cycle there. We see that some import product prices continue quite high. But when we look at the exports volume in the beginning of the year, that was very high. We were expected this level to be above those of 2023, but they were actually below. I know that we have the quota issues and import tariffs, but why do you think that is? And what do you expect for the rest of 2024? And how are the other markets fighting for these products? I just want to understand the potential of exports to the U.S. These are my 2 questions.

[Edison de Andrade Melo e Souza Filho, executive]

So, I will try and answer the first question, and Fernando will take the second one. Our origination strategy does not change. What we see is that with the price of grains being favorable, we should have a good availability of animals in the off-season period. And in order to make sure that we have the availability of these feed law cattle, we have to use the financial tools that we've been using for a very long time. So long-term contracts, minimum prices, and we've been very active in doing this, and this should help to make sure that we have availability of cattle, and that we can maintain prices.

[Fernando De Queiroz, executive]

Yes, like he said, we've been using the same instruments in other countries of South America. So, this is part of our strategy. We are working with a better confidence, and availability and pricing dynamics are discussed in the due forms, and that will support the decisions we make in the international market. Like we highlighted in our presentation, the U.S.A. is becoming more and more dependent on imports. But this is not happening only to the U.S.A. This is an increasingly integrated market. So, markets that are being left aside by the U.S. start gaining volume. So, you can look at our highlights. We have replaced China with other destinations. And we should be the company that depends the last of China. So, that means that we have been diversifying. We have this international platform that allows us to react with agility to the new trends, but the U.S. has the smallest herd since '92 and continues in this dynamic of reducing the number of females. The slaughter of cows remains quite strong. And so, this is a positive trend. And added to that, we have the slaughter in China. China is the third largest beef producer in the world. But China is also going through a strong reduction in the number of female animals, and this is creating an imbalance in the Chinese market. So, we believe that it's going to continue like that for the rest of the year.

[Leonardo Alencar, analyst]

Okay. So, 2 quick follow-ups. Can you tell us about the idle rate in your plants? Because with this increasing volume of slaughtering, how much can you capture this momentum? And now it's still about the U.S., Fernando. Is Paraguay already shipping to the U.S.? What are the volumes like right now coming from Paraguay to the U.S.? And when would you be able to start building up stock for the U.S. starting in the second quarter or fourth quarter? When do you expect that to happen?

[Fernando De Queiroz, executive]

We are at 25% idle capacity on average with some origins like in Brazil, with much higher utilization rate, and that's our arbitrage policy. When it comes to Paraguay and the U.S., yes, Paraguay is already shipping to the U.S. dividing the quota with other countries, but some special niches, we've been doing from Paraguay outside this quota.

[Operator]

Our next question is by Gustavo Troyano from Itau BBA.

[Gustavo Troyano, analyst]

Good morning, everyone. I want to explore 2 issues. First, about China. Fernando talked about lower prices and the imbalance because of the female animals. But now after 2 months that you got the permits to export from Brazil to China, have you felt any difference in the supply coming from Brazil to China. Does that change your negotiations anyhow? I know it's hard to understand what is new offer and what is decreasing demand. But where does the imbalance come from considering the new permits to export from Brazil to China? And now my second question is about working capital. We saw accounts payable, releasing BRL 470 million in the quarter. And in the last 12 months, we also saw an important release of a bit more than BRL 600 million. So, can you tell us about the drivers? Is this related to the export mix? Can we expect more to come from this front? Or have you reached a recurring level already?

[Edison de Andrade Melo e Souza Filho, executive]

So, let me answer your question about working capital. If we look at the BRL 317 million that we gave back to the operations, we have 2 important things here: the suppliers account of BRL 197 million, and most is in negotiation of deadlines with suppliers, especially for maritime freight. So, this is due to the management of our working capital management. So that gave BRL 197 million or BRL 150 million. And the BRL 470 million that you mentioned from other accounts payable, these are prepayments that we got from future exports. So, not necessarily new markets, but sometimes, yes, new markets, and mainly new customers. And in order to start our commercial relationship, we have a credit policy that depends on the country and the client ratings. So, we can ask for 10% to 50% of advanced payments in those contracts. So, this reflects the future perspective of accelerating exports, which is what Fernando said. So, we're looking much more ahead than in the rear mirror. We see here a heating market that will increase imports in the coming quarters.

[Fernando De Queiroz, executive]

Gustavo, going back to my previous answer. South America is occupying the space left by the U.S.A. in all of the markets to which the U.S.A. would export in the past. And it's not only the premium markets. We also see a large impact of the U.S. exports, which used to go to less premium markets with cheaper products. Now about the Chinese dynamics, this movement with the permits of plants in Brazil and in Colombia, which was a major highlight of our quarter shows the concern that China has towards the future. We've been monitoring the slaughter of cows in China, and this is important data showing changes in the cycle there in China. If I could bet today, I would say that China has reached the lowest level of the valley. And we now see positive movements happening in China. But now with the approval of new plants, China is not going to be a market with such a great differential as we had in the past. It's only natural that you have more plants. So, the spread becomes more normal, reflecting the growth, but no longer that mismatch between China and the other markets with that lack of arbitrage and as asymmetrical as it used to be in the past?

[Operator]

Our next question is by Thiago Duarte from BTG Pactual. Thiago, you have the floor.

[Thiago Duarte, analyst]

Good morning, Fernando, Edson and everyone. Now, question is similar to Gustavo's question about working capital and the change in the company's revenue mix. Fernando talked about the arbitrage opportunities, of course, we understand that. But I want to know more about how the first quarter closes when it comes to the working capital dynamics and what you expect from now on? Based on Edison's answer, I understand that there are import opportunities. So, we should see -- or it makes sense for us to predict an increase in the import share in the coming quarters and maybe a smaller space with more release of working capital. Is that right? If we look at working capital from now on? That would be my first question. Now, my second question is the following: can you shed some light into the livestock cycle here in Brazil. We know that we have a very favorable cattle scenario, but can you tell us a bit more about the future? When we look at the numbers, we see maybe an opportunity to retain female animals in the long-term. Do you agree? Can you shed some light into this? And then, Fernando, you talked about the positive opening of new markets, with permits to new plants happening in the recent past. So, are you optimistic to get new permits? We saw the visit of the Japanese government here in Brazil recently. So, what do you expect here when it comes to new permits?

[Unknown Executive]

So, I will answer the first part of your question. About working capital, Thiago. Yes, we are more optimistic about the imports from now on. As you know, imports require more capital because it has a longer cycle. But we also have improvement in our working capital accounts metrics. So, we might not have more release of working capital in the rest of the year. We had a significant release of working capital in Q1, but we are managing prepayments and better terms with important suppliers that are noncattle like maritime, freight suppliers, like I was telling you earlier in order to increase imports and improve profitability without burning working capital. I cannot tell you exactly what the working capital numbers will be for Q3 and Q4. But what I can tell you is that our budget is considering a flat working capital level till the end of the year. So, we had an important release of working capital in Q1, and we're going to work hard to keep this level constant for the rest of the year. We want to have at least a flat level of working capital then to the end of the year. About the livestock cycle. That's an interesting question you asked because all analysts are so sure that the cycle is going to turn now in 2024. And this is quite interesting because when we look at the statistics that you just mentioned, we cannot see that. We cannot prove that. So, if you look at players that are outside the sell-side industry, so an external consultant, they will share a completely different view saying that the retention of females has not started yet. The drivers show that this is only going to start in the first half of next year, and therefore, we're going to have a great availability of cattle throughout the rest of 2024 and also in 2025, probably until the off season. So, the numbers that we see and when we talk to other consultants who are not sell-side, apparently, they can look beyond and have a more neutral analysis. So, although the cycle usually lasts 2 to 3 years, this time because of the strength of calves' production that we had in the past because of the last female retention, we expect the cycle to last at least until the end of 2025. So, that's our view. We believe that the cycle will continue favorable in 2024 and probably also in 2025. Thiago, that is a very important question in terms of the future market dynamics. The thing is that we have to compare not only to the disposal of female animals, but the age of those females that are being disposed of. The U.S., they have a huge disposal of heifers, that is female -- young female animals. So that means that you have farmers leaving the business. Brazil will go through its cycle. We believe that the cycle is going to be extended. But in Brazil, the disposal of females are only of those that are not as productive. They produce lighter comps or they are less efficient in producing costs. So, in spite of the cycle, we believe that Brazil is going to occupy more space in the international market. And we add to that, Minerva's strategy of being in Paraguay, Uruguay, Colombia, Argentina. With these operations, we have different cycles that are monitored and arbitraged on. So, about the markets, we've never had as many markets opened in so many locations. Each country has its own geopolitical dynamics with different markets being opened up to different locations. And yes, we see more markets being opened in the Southeast of Asia, and we have growing population and growing income also in the sub-Saharan Africa. And there are markets that were closed in the past. We saw a major highlight, for example, in Algeria, in the North of Africa. And markets that used to highly depend on European exports with subsidies like Turkey. So, we have the effective openings because of the health agreement, but also the Brazilian government has been working hard to improve access to already open markets through renegotiation of quota systems and/or import tariffs. One of the main highlights, and we're going to get an official visit from the Brazilian government there is Japan. So, when it comes to beef, you have 2 production systems with grains or with pasture land. Pasture is less and less competitive and more and more restrictive to the production in Europe and in the U.S. And therefore, this gap is going to be filled by the Southern Hemisphere, and that's our investment belief. We are the natural suppliers of beef to the whole planet in different markets, at different seasons and in different channels. So, we're working on this, and we are already seeing the results come in, especially in the medium-term where we are occupying the vacuum left by the Northern Hemisphere. And we've been talking a lot about the cycle in the U.S.A., but we see the same situation even more dramatic in the European cycle. There are countries there with a 25% reduction in their beef reduction in the last 5 years. So, it's only natural that we occupy the space. It doesn't matter if it comes from Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, or Paraguay. Because Minerva's strategy focuses on geographical diversification.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]. Our next question is by Guilherme Palhares from Santander. Guilherme, please ask your question.

[Guilherme Palhares, analyst]

I have 3 quick questions here on my side. First, I'd like to hear your take on the vaccination for foot and mouth disease here in Brazil? First, I want to understand the impact this vaccination has in terms of cost and also the conversations that you've been having about this when it comes to increasing exports? Now I'd also like to hear your take on the Argentinian operations with slaughtering and all of the uncertainties in the political scenario. So, now that the government has been in power for some time, what do you expect? And now another question is about Marfrig's selected assets that are being acquired. Three of the plants are in the South region. Do you see any possible losses when it comes to property or the suppliers in the south region of Brazil with all of the floods that are happening right now?

[Unknown Executive]

So, about vaccination, some states will eliminate the vaccination, and this should reflect in new openings, but this is becoming more and more regionalized. So, one of the discussions happening in Japan are about the states that are open to start accessing this market. So, yes, vaccination has a risk, of course, but it's yet another market access instrument. Argentina had an increase in revenue, but I want to highlight 2 key points in the administration of the current President in Argentina. One of the things that happened was the elimination of restriction to some of the beef cuts. We can now export any of the cuts. That's different from the previous administration that forced us to keep some of the cuts in the internal market. Now about exports, we see an almost elimination between the official dollar and the parallel dollar in the country. There is almost no more difference between these 2 values, which used to create an incorrect incentive to export. So, the elimination of this gap in value between the two U.S. dollars will make the same rules applied to everyone. Now about the south, none of our plants have been affected. That's what we know so far. The south of Brazil.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]. If there are no further questions by audio, I will turn the floor over to Mr. Edison Ticle, who will read the questions that were sent in writing.

[Edison de Andrade Melo e Souza Filho, executive]

So we have a few questions in writing. Brian. The FX hedging has had negative impact in the last 4 years. Isn't it time to reassess this policy? I think it's time people learn how to do the math. If we look at the last 4 years, in the first Q of '24, our FX hedging policy generated positive BRL 31 million starting in 2018 when this new policy was put in place. It actually generated BRL 805 million in cash. So, I don't think it's time to reassess this policy. Also, this decreases volatility, and mainly this hedging policy is discussed at the Financial Committee and at the Board. The hedging policy is very robust. And of course, we are always considering whether it should be changed or not. Now another question is about Argentina. The company has working capital retained to invest in the country in Argentina. Well, Fernando said that we are optimistic about Argentina in the medium-term. And yes, we have local working capital to be reinvested there to accelerate operations even further if need be.And then Marcelo. Do you plan to verticalize operations and expansion in other countries. Well, when it comes to expansion to other countries, I mean, we are waiting for the regulatory approval to complete the integration of Marfrig assets in South America. About verticalization of production. No, it doesn't make sense when it comes to working capital to do that. Since the animal cycle is very long. If you verticalize, you invest a lot of working capital, reducing returns on operations. Luis. About the negative U.S. -- livestock cycle in the U.S., do you think that the U.S. government is going to establish quotas? And now about the bird flu in the U.S, what do you expect from that? Well, the Brazilian government has been talking about increasing or flexibilizing the quota system. This has already been discussed also in Uruguay and Argentina. So, yes, I believe that is a possibility, and there is ongoing work in that. Now Brian asked about the sales of the Chilean asset being sold there. Is that true? Yes, this is true. It hasn't been announced to the market yet because the fact that it's been approved doesn't mean that the operation has been closed. Chile, Argentina, and Brazil will have their closings at the same time. So, we still need the approvals in Brazil and Argentina, so that we can close that in Chile.

[Operator]

Okay. This concludes the Q&A session. Now I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. Fernando de Queiroz for his final remarks. Mr. de Queiroz, you have the floor. You're on mute Mr. de Queiroz.

[Fernando De Queiroz, executive]

Okay. Well, thank you all for joining us for our earnings conference call. I just want to wrap up by saying that our strategy has shown to be very successful in diversification, diversifying between internal markets with our amazing arbitrage capabilities, and also the exports to new markets. Beef is one of the last commodities to become global. And no one country, no one region is better positioned than we are here in South America. So, this explains all of our strategy and our policy to work more and more as a global player to meet the needs of global and regional customers all over the world. Once again, I want to highlight the hard work here of Minerva's team in the different areas, and how our culture is increasingly strong and unique. And considering all the 37 nationalities of the people in our team, we can say that we have a common language and the common strength that is bringing about great results and gains, not only in the short-term but also in the medium- and long-term, which is our goal. And we are available should you have any other questions or should you discuss any other issues with our team. Thank you very much, and have a great day.

[Operator]

This completes Minerva Foods earnings conference call. If you have any questions, please send your questions to the IR team through [e-mail]. Thank you for joining, and have a great day.[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]