Brasilagro Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
BOVESPA:AGRO3
US |
Fubotv Inc
NYSE:FUBO
|
Media
|
|
US |
Bank of America Corp
NYSE:BAC
|
Banking
|
|
US |
Palantir Technologies Inc
NYSE:PLTR
|
Technology
|
|
US |
C
|
C3.ai Inc
NYSE:AI
|
Technology
|
US |
Uber Technologies Inc
NYSE:UBER
|
Road & Rail
|
|
CN |
NIO Inc
NYSE:NIO
|
Automobiles
|
|
US |
Fluor Corp
NYSE:FLR
|
Construction
|
|
US |
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc
NYSE:J
|
Professional Services
|
|
US |
TopBuild Corp
NYSE:BLD
|
Consumer products
|
|
US |
Abbott Laboratories
NYSE:ABT
|
Health Care
|
|
US |
Chevron Corp
NYSE:CVX
|
Energy
|
|
US |
Occidental Petroleum Corp
NYSE:OXY
|
Energy
|
|
US |
Matrix Service Co
NASDAQ:MTRX
|
Construction
|
|
US |
Automatic Data Processing Inc
NASDAQ:ADP
|
Technology
|
|
US |
Qualcomm Inc
NASDAQ:QCOM
|
Semiconductors
|
|
US |
Ambarella Inc
NASDAQ:AMBA
|
Semiconductors
|
Utilize notes to systematically review your investment decisions. By reflecting on past outcomes, you can discern effective strategies and identify those that underperformed. This continuous feedback loop enables you to adapt and refine your approach, optimizing for future success.
Each note serves as a learning point, offering insights into your decision-making processes. Over time, you'll accumulate a personalized database of knowledge, enhancing your ability to make informed decisions quickly and effectively.
With a comprehensive record of your investment history at your fingertips, you can compare current opportunities against past experiences. This not only bolsters your confidence but also ensures that each decision is grounded in a well-documented rationale.
Do you really want to delete this note?
This action cannot be undone.
52 Week Range |
23.09
28.2
|
Price Target |
|
We'll email you a reminder when the closing price reaches BRL.
Choose the stock you wish to monitor with a price alert.
Fubotv Inc
NYSE:FUBO
|
US | |
Bank of America Corp
NYSE:BAC
|
US | |
Palantir Technologies Inc
NYSE:PLTR
|
US | |
C
|
C3.ai Inc
NYSE:AI
|
US |
Uber Technologies Inc
NYSE:UBER
|
US | |
NIO Inc
NYSE:NIO
|
CN | |
Fluor Corp
NYSE:FLR
|
US | |
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc
NYSE:J
|
US | |
TopBuild Corp
NYSE:BLD
|
US | |
Abbott Laboratories
NYSE:ABT
|
US | |
Chevron Corp
NYSE:CVX
|
US | |
Occidental Petroleum Corp
NYSE:OXY
|
US | |
Matrix Service Co
NASDAQ:MTRX
|
US | |
Automatic Data Processing Inc
NASDAQ:ADP
|
US | |
Qualcomm Inc
NASDAQ:QCOM
|
US | |
Ambarella Inc
NASDAQ:AMBA
|
US |
This alert will be permanently deleted.
Good afternoon. We're here once again for the conference call for earnings of BrasilAgro. We will talk about the period that ended on March concerning Q322 for BrasilAgro and 9 months. For those who don't know, clarifying our year goes from July 1 to June 30 every year.
Today, I have Andre Guillaumon, our Chairman; and Gustavo Lopez, our CFO. My name is Paula Ribeiro, Investor Relations Head. The presentation is available in English in the chat. So, whoever is listening the audio in English and wishes to see the presentation in English, please open the file in our chat. Good afternoon. Thank you for participating, and I would like to pass the floor to our CEO, Andre. Andre, you have the floor.
Thank you very much, Ana Paula. I would like to thank all those who worked to prepare the material. Thank you to the participants. It's a great pleasure to talk to you in our quarterly calls. And we will talk about harvest, second crop, the market. I imagine we will have questions, but here are the highlights of Q3 ninth consecutive month. For the first time in history, we're surpassing the revenue in Q3, more than $1.13 billion.
The company that began with a low revenue today, BrasilAgro is a resilient company, giving results net profits in the 3 quarters, R$489 million, also historical profit for the company adjusted EBITDA R$692 million approximately and dividends. After this result was the payment of additional dividends that happened in April. I believe this is an important point. The shareholders that follow us, this year was unique. It's been a unique year for the company in terms of results, and it's very fair foreseeing that we will have a very good result at the end of the year, we are then distributing more dividends.
We ended the soybean harvest with a record number 195,000 tons, and we concluded planting the second crop. You know that the second crop is important due to our operations in Mato Grosso not being very big. We have operations in Mapitoba which decreased the potential of the second crop. This has been an important topic. We're illustrating the company's positioning. It has been a recurring concern. Those who know me, that I come from the sector, so we always follow. We try to do good acquisitions in this sector because we know the sector very well. Due to the pandemic and war, this dynamic changed a lot. So, I will go back. When we look at this pie chart, I will go back in history.
When we had the embargo from Belarus in November, December last year, this was something that was an alert. We didn't have the war yet, but the embargo for Belarus is important. They are a supplier of this raw material, so we went to the market. In January, February, and I believe a little before the war, we had already bought 100% of potassium chloride, and we paid for it.
You can see that we had an important reduction in cash, anticipating the expenses for the next harvest. We already bought the product, and it's already being received. In the case of nitrogen and potassium, we also bought 25% of the needs. Sugar cane harvest begins in April. So, we have a guaranteed supply of nitrogen for sugar cane until the beginning of August, and following this market.
Nitrogenated. This other part is one that we have more time to buy. This raise until the end of the second semester is valid only for nitrogenated. Phosphate, we have to internalize this product in August, September to plant in October, but this nitrogenated is for the second crop, cotton. You need to have it available in the units as of January 2023. The graph shows the curves. We see the annual curves. What had already happened in 2021 and what has been happening in 2022. Urea CFR.
So, we had a drop in the beginning of the year, fertilizer with phosphate. We knew it wasn't the time to buy and it was correct. We are seeing signs of phosphated products dropping in the market. No one here would be too optimistic thinking that it would go back to historical levels in this harvest. We believe a reduction in phosphate products until the end of the year and potassium chloride follow. It continues to be stable, but we have 100% [indiscernible]. Cost of acquisition was much higher, but when we look at the time in January, it was good business to buy it in January, looking at the prices now.
Well, I believe that all of this that we showed has an impact on costs. The Brazilian harvest and our harvest will not be an exception. You have an increase in the price of fertilizer, but this is to illustrate. When we look at commodities and the historical margins, even with a higher cost of fertilizer, we still have profitability margins in all these crops with averages that are above the historical averages.
We have good prices for commodities. We thought it would be shorter, but with inflation and today, we have prices in [indiscernible] for 2023, with very good prices. This shows the commodities, all of them. We have enormous challenges. We have corn that has uncertainties in the second crop, nothing similar to last year, very different, but some uncertainties. There's the issue of the Ukraine cotton, we have some effects due to the pandemic. We have cotton with very good levels, sugar cane ethanol, prices are extremely interesting, and the beef market, we believe that Brazil exporting once again to China and Asia, this is a market that we believe will stay at the current levels. Now, talking about agriculture.
This is not different. Here we have a summary of the agricultural year. We have the second crop in progress and cotton in Mato Grosso, but in Paraguay this year, we had once again, a difficult year due to the drought. Paraguay was very similar to the South of Brazil [Foreign Language]. So, we had problems with drought in December and January, a severe drought, and it continued a little in February. So, an important impact on the soybean and cotton harvest in Paraguay. In the case of the second crop, our exposure is not that big, but we have a privileged situation in Mato Grosso, most of our second crop is not in the South, but in the Xingu. This is favorable.
With the problems we had in February, March, beans too, we're estimating that we will harvest corn with the numbers we expected, beans too. Cotton, a small drop. We're talking about the second crop in cotton. Here, we're talking about the second crop, cotton, a small area. It is a pilot project, 500 hectares, but we have a drop due to part of the area last week we had rainfall, but it did not cover all the plantation. When we talk about sugar cane, we're seeing this pressure of rainfall in the North Atlantic area. This has affected rain in MaranhĂŁo and PiauĂ, and you know that we have a lot of sugar cane in the state of MaranhĂŁo.
We have also sugar cane in the Midwest, which had a good rainfall for sugar cane in the summer months. In sugar cane, we have no doubts that we will have numbers as estimated trying to surpass the estimates. So, we have to see the concentration of sugar, and because of rainfall, you have a lot of tonnage, but you lose a lot in the amount of sugar content. So, the TCH will help us recover.
Cotton in blue. This is our in the state of Bahia. In Bahia, you know, in March, we have production, cotton in 2 farms. One is not suffering. It is doing very well. And in Chaparral, we had the drought. It was doing well until February, we were maintaining the estimates of 300, 325. And in March, we had 18 millimeters of rain, which hurt, and we adjusted the production in Bahia, especially in our Chaparral farm.
Well, here, the growth, it's important to say we're working for new acquisitions and new areas to be leased. And even selling this year, the company was very aggressive in selling land, we sold a lot of land. Another point, this is important to highlight, we have discipline, we did not accept some prices that we thought were very high. So, we had a drop, a small area in Xingu, but we're looking, we're trying to maintain these numbers, 10%, 12% a year.
This picture is the breakdown here. I'd like to call your attention to the following. It's a company that has a good planted area. And very important here is our diversification, we have always diversified. When you begin to diversify, it begins small, then we become stronger in production, in sales, and these new products become more and more important. We have been doing this with beans, we have been talking about this year. We have different cultures, so we have 600 acres, and we're trying to add value to our production.
Well, this is a little of our production, it's an estimate. I believe there should be small variances. Why? For example, we have the second crop in the Midwest in the states of Goiás and Mato Grosso, and we'd like to highlight the company has good relevance. In 2021, we had 290,000 tons, here with the exception of sugarcane, here we're talking about grains. And we have, in this harvest, we want to finalize with 380,000 tons. We're producing 200 tons of sesame in June, and we should deliver results selling land or not selling land. Of course, our business is selling farms.
Here the status of the harvest, soybean, 100% complete, I would say that we're very happy with the geographic concentration. Our Brazilian production was higher than the estimates. So, when I say that we will be within the estimate in soy, we still have to see what will happen in Paraguay. We have 12,000, 6,000 soybean, 4,000, also, corn, we have a little bit of beans, so, the production of soybean in Brazil that is completed is well above our expectations. Some units well above, other units above too. Corn, we began harvesting. We're talking about the second crop with very favorable numbers in the units in MaranhĂŁo and PiauĂ states.
Cotton, we haven't begun the harvest. We're talking about the main crop, and beans also, 100% harvested. Well, here within our pillar, we always say that cattle raising is for diversification, to mitigate volatility, and to develop new areas. Basically, we have operations in 3 units. We have operations in Paraguay, Bahia, and the Preference farm, and more recently, we have accelerated the implementation of cattle raising in some parts of [indiscernible]. It has a great irrigation project that we're accelerating, and part of the area, we have a buffer there to avoid volatility. It will migrate to cattle raising. This is cattle raising. It is stable, small variances. GMD is the average weight gain of the herd.
So, we'd like to highlight that we have another 2 months that will contribute in a positive way for the weight gain. It's the end of March and April where you have a lot of pasture, so we're estimating that we will be very close to the estimated GMD of 700 per animal. To finalize, we always say that our concern is to work with contribution margin. The harvest almost 85% of hedge in soybean, 90% here with prices of $14 a bushel. Well, we'd like to remind you, we sold this in May last year.
We sold a lot of soybean around $11, $12 per bushel last year. And then we have continued to sell. So, we have an average price of $14 a bushel. We have an average exchange rate at R$5.35 to a dollar. And we are foreseeing-- We bought fertilizers and inputs too, the company bought 100% of the inputs for next year, agrochemicals. So, we began to also sell soybean. The company has 33% sold.
Reminding you, since January, we're selling soybean. In December, January, we sold a soybean to buy fertilizer, and this price R$13.76 with an exchange rate of 5.65. There's a year with a lot of volatility. We're using this to our advantage. One important line I'd like to highlight is line 22 and 23 that have asterisks. These are bags of beans that we will receive. We're monitoring this. So we had sold this already. We believed it was a good price. We sold with a different exchange rate, 5.63. So in 2022 we have all these receivables with Chicago at 1120 and exchange rate at 560. In '23, '24 we have a percentage sold. This is always shown in our results. So it's important to look at this and try to do the best possible state for this merchandise.
In corn, the volume is 59% sold and we'd like to remind you this is second crop. We had a good strategy in the second crop. We believe that we did the right thing, we made the right decisions we began to sell a little in '22 through '23 cotton 87% sold at $0.82 per pound. New York with a very good exchange rate. We closed almost at BRL 5.90 to $1 and we have some positions already sold for cotton. We're always working with contribution margin when we believe the cost is already final then we know here you can look at ethanol. We have our revenue linked to anhydrous ethanol.
We will have the receivables for this and we have done this for more than 3, 4 years. This is information for you so we had very good prices in the last few months 3,200 per cubic meter and then 32% is sold, these 32% I'd like to correct the point. These 32% are only Seongsu-dong not in the Midwest. Thank you, I'd like to conclude it now I pass the floor to Gustavo.
Thank you, Andre. Good afternoon. Let’s continue absolutely with the highlights, we got the numbers, the first is net revenue. We have a net revenue of BRL 1 billion as Andre mentioned, this is the goal that we have been after for sometime and we're not going to stop. We're at BRL 817 million from operational sale of [indiscernible] sugarcane, corn, 817 million. [indiscernible] main crops we were able to sell. We were able to sell these products 70 plus 10s with prices above last influxes. So we understand it and we will continue although the price of commodities may have some drop in the future. We understand that with the new volume since the productivity, we have 100,000 sales of corn. We will continue with the growth in revenue.
The net revenue from land sales, $316 million, and this is sale of land farms. And our objective, we have talked to investors and analysts. Our goal is to sell 10%. We have a portfolio of $2 billion. We're very happy to have reached this objective of selling land in these 9 months. We understand that the farmers have had a good harvest and it's possible to continue selling farmland. The second number we'd like to see is the growth of [indiscernible] in the company.
We consider that we have derivatives we excluded from those assets in development. We have BRL 691 million adjusted total adjusted in EBITDA. And here we have a combination. We have here real estate, 250 million and 440 million from operations. And this is an indicator that we always follow this adjusted EBITDA margin, this percentage. Every time we sell farmland, our margins become much better. That's why we believe a lot in this business model of operations plus sale of land.
Net profit of the company BRL 488 million, BRL 158 million and I believe it's important to highlight. Let's see in the future. The company has comfortable cash in debt positions. So we can capture part of this profit from operations and sale of real estate and this is our objective to keep the company healthy. So we can really sell farmland when we believe it will give us a good profitability.
Now on the next page here, operational EBITDA BRL 440 million. As I mentioned, 2 important things sugarcane and soybean. They represent 90% of this margin, 440 million. We have 220 from soybean, which recently was harvested. When we compare with last year, we're talking about not an activity that gives us an EBITDA of 90 million each. And this shows the increase that we have in profitability and margin and especially due to the prices of commodities. Last year, we had sold sugar cane at $0.70 this year 0.94, 0.95 and we had more production. So this generated BRL 8,000 per hectare and in the previous year we had 4,000 per hectare, only half.
So this shows that the margins rose a lot and for next year Andre was mentioning the impact from the price of fertilizers and chemicals seeds. This will decrease the margin next year but much higher than the historical margins. It's important to highlight that in Q4 we still have to recognize the results from corn, second crop, and we will have to recognize also cotton. We will have to include cotton in these numbers, especially what we planted in the state of Bayern but we can say that we're very optimistic with the final result. And as we mentioned previously, we will have a historical result for the company.
On the next slide, this is to show the evolution during these 9 months, total assets, BRL 3.5 billion raise, 1.9% here total assets reminding you that the farmland as investments, we book them at cost price. And Andre had mentioned also a drop in the company's cash position. The company's cash from now on will rise. We will begin to sell soybean and cotton and we will receive cash. So in terms of cash, we're very well, in a very comfortable position. The loans, BRL 1 billion, a drop of 17%, 18% here. We understand that some loans that were very expensive, it didn't make sense to keep them. So we tried to pay off these debts and this decreasing the company's debts.
On the next slide here we can see the net financial debt of the company. When we see the total debt BRL 439 million, BRL 663 is on June 30th, 2021. Here, as I mentioned, We paid off some loans that we believed were very expensive. We're very comfortable with the average cost of the debt. 11.4% below the CDI. And here we have an important point. Last year we issued here and we're following this to do a swap for an exchange rate below the CDI index. And we have the possibility of decreasing the average cost of this debt and knowing that we have investments, 100% of the CDI, 115% depending on the maturity date. This will be one of the next steps.
Since we have a debt that is not [indiscernible] for new loans. Here, the company's value, when we have today an NAV of $2.5 billion and here we have properties. I mentioned $3.2 billion but net after-taxes for sale of farmland. We have a net value for the company of BRL 4.3 billion, BRL 49 per share. And we see that the company's market value even with the increase in interest rates in Brazil, in the US, the war in Ukraine, we see that the company's shares are very resilient. But we see that we will be transforming, developing land, increasing the value of this land, developing from pastural land to planted land. So we will continue working to decrease this difference.
This is a point that we always analyze with Andre and [indiscernible] We talk to investors about this. One point that everyone liked apart from the business model, which is resilient, we also like to say that we're a company that pays dividends. So we understand, as Andre mentioned, we had a very good year, good results, positive results, and as we confirm the productivity in the 2 most important activities, soybean and sugarcane if the prices continue at this level. Also, we analyzed a repurchase of shares. We made a great effort to increase the liquidity of the company, so we discussed internally and we saw that there's a good possibility to deliver to investors who believe in us, the possibility that they can choose where to invest.
We believe we are a good vehicle for investment, and that's why we decided to anticipate part of the dividends, BRL 200 million. We paid them on April 29th, and certainly, we continue working. And if we confirm all these numbers and if we don't need more cash, we will continue being aggressive in the payment of dividends this year. So, the company's objective is to pay dividends and we will continue to reach this goal, continue paying dividends. On the last chart, this shows how resilient our shares are with a performance that is better than our stock markets. So, we understand that we have good reasons for the company to continue to appreciate the value of the shares. Thank you.
Now we will begin the Q&A session.
Thank you, Andre. Thank you, Gustavo. Well, I have 2 questions here in the chat. If you wish to ask questions in audio, please, inform your name.
The first question comes from [indiscernible] from Levante, then Damien also sent questions. I will join the 2 questions.
Please comment on how you see the price of land. Whether we see a lot of competition to buy developed land. And since rural lands, the price is based on bags of soybean, do you believe it's more interesting to sell land instead of buying right now?
Okay. Well, we could stay all afternoon talking about this. Yes, yes, it's time to sell. It's much easier to sell than to buy. Yes, we believe that it's time to sell. It makes sense to sell now. And we always say this, we're a cyclic company. When everyone wants to buy, we have to sell. When everyone wants to sell, we buy. So the assets that are generating cash results, these assets had the greatest increase in price.
The assets that are not developed, that demand CapEx investment, management, the price also rose. But not as much Damian said, the reference that you have in mature land. Mature land, where you plant grains in certain regions, it is worth X bags of soybean in such a region. So this is what happens. So since we have a commodity with a higher price, so the price of land went up a lot. We begin to see, as I mentioned also earlier, we see also a change in the multiples to calculate the prices.
These years of good prices also changed the multiples. So we begin to see by year with 5% to 10% more in the multiple [indiscernible] So in a nutshell, in a direct way, yes, as Gustavo mentioned, it's time to sell. We continue buying. We're doing due diligence. We're looking at purchasing land, but it's time to sell. We're very cautious to make good acquisitions because, for example, you can have soybean at 1617, and the price could drop in the future. So we have to be very cautious to avoid losing it with lower results, because we believe that the company's result comes from operations, from planting, and sometimes leveraged by the results from the sale of land.
Next question, Thiago Duarte, BTG.
I have 2 questions. First, I'd like to go back to this discussion to buy or to sell land but in terms of the roots of the business model of Brazil Agri. You're now well capitalised. I agree that the market is now ready for selling, but thinking of your strategy and you have experience in this in the last few years. I'd like to understand the following. Today, do you see any problem for this model to be used once again? Do you believe you can continue with the same model? The company is very well capitalised, you have a lot of liquidity to receive, you think of the bags of soybean that will come?
So I'd like to revisit the thesis of buying undeveloped land. Do you believe this is still good business to buy undeveloped land? And the second, I'd like to hear you as much as you can explain to us the drop in margin for the next year, do you see a drop in margin? The cost is going up with the decision to delay the purchase of part of the fertilisers and we mentioned this. There could be a drop in the next few months, and could this result in a drop in margins? Help us to see what scenario you expect for margins when you talk about lower margins but above the historical level is this per hectare? I'd like to understand how you're measuring a possible drop in margin for next year.
Thiago, as always, very good questions. Well, I will allow Gustavo to supplement the second part. Well, we believe that our business model is a winning model and continues to exist. Sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less. I'll give you an example, Thiago. The company formed its portfolio last year, we did it in last year. We bought land last year. And now in February, this acquisition is 2 years old. We already sold areas in this portfolio with 50% return. Our challenge is not only to think of transformation. We offer the best possible solution. In 2017, we made an important acquisition in [indiscernible] we were able to offer a solution with leasing and it was a great advantage for both sides.
It was a win-win solution, more than looking at land. We're looking at business opportunities that are dual. As you said, it's difficult to buy, but if we can buy, exchanging for shares or other types of business, we can offer a lot of value to shareholders. So what do I believe that happened? Those assets that you bought [indiscernible] 30,000 hectares, [indiscernible] about 30,000. These assets of this size, and in these regions, you won't find again.
And then you say, oh, but, Andre, we have a different entry price today. I agree, but since we have different sizes, we see transformation after a year. And I'll give you an example why I believe that this model continues good. We bought in 2021, Sarah Grandi farm. We bought 3000. We leased 5,000 additional. We were able to transform this land in a year. We spent and we transformed. When we look at the chat map, it took us 8 years to transform. When you look at Chapparal, we still have land to be transformed, developed. We have Chapparal for more than 10 years in the portfolio. So one thing compensates the other, the return rates that in the past was leveraged due to, a low purchase price will continue existing. We will continue maintaining, but now we're winning not only with the purchase price, but also speed of transformation. The last 3 acquisitions were acquisitions that were opportunities. So, I don't believe there's a single model. The main thing is to have the ability to divest. This strengthens. Why are we different from others? We love land. We love farms, but we love to sell land.
When we believe the land is ready, we sell. Although the price of commodities is good, we sell. What strengthens our thesis is, we don't have a fixed date to sell like real estate funds and so we have the opportunity to sell when we believe it's the best time and we sell. We don't sell farms because they are bad or because we don't like, or we sell when it's good business and this is the difference between us and others.
The speed in making the decision and the sale. Not because of problems in operation, but because the land is worth more. We have this discipline in the company to monitor the price all the time. This is what makes us a winning model. Now in terms of cost, yes, yes, the cost is going up for the inputs. For example, the price of fertilizers and other inputs, 40% higher. These are numbers to be confirmed, but we have bought. Potassium is bought, seeds we have already bought.
We have a great visibility of the next harvest. It'll be very good. We don't have visibility of the cost of diesel oil. And diesel oil I remember, people, diesel oil was not important. Today it's an important input. It affects the costs but within a range, we were projecting a much higher cost for diesel than last year. Now we have another increase and this will have an impact in services. Now, sugarcane, cotton and corn demand less services. And in sugarcane you have more services. When you harvest and transport, you use a lot of diesel oil. So we see 40% higher cost in the next harvest, but we'd like to remind you that today we have a discipline. We have, for example, the prices of Chicago at 1470, that I didn't have last month.
So prices are going up. The price of cost went up, the feeling I have the future. So the other commodities will also rise in price. So we had higher costs and we know that it's a year with a lot of concern. You know this very well, the exchange rate, we're also looking at the exchange rate. Gustavo, if you wish to supplement. Just to give you some information, there are things we can't talk about yet. Last year, we began with a projected EBITA, an estimated EBITA of BRL 300 million. And you see that today it's 400 higher than 400. So what happened? We had all the confirmations for all the costs confirmed, price of fuel fertilizer, 35% lower prices. And when you look at the value per hectare, BRL 3,000 per hectare in terms of margin for soybean and 5,500 for sugarcane. The price of sugarcane was $0.92. So we have extraordinary results, 440 million.
Now in the future, we're maintaining the price of soybean close to what we are selling. Our budget was BRL 135 last year, but we're seeing a great impact cost. For cost 40% higher. Those that are nitrogenated use nitrogenated almost 50% increase in cost. So we had a forecast. So I believe that this difference from 300 to 440 the prices will be firm but the cost impacts the profitability, but in general terms we're much higher. If we look at historical prices EBITA would be BRL 200 million. BRL 200 million only. Reminding you that Gustavo talks about operationally EBITA. And we add to this the sale of farmland.
Victor Saragiotto from Credit Suisse.
My question going back to this discussion about the business model, the challenge to replicate what you did in the last few years. Andre said very well. You are prepared to sell the farmland. Farmers have great difficulty to sell their land but you are able to sell your land. Don't you believe that price of land can go up again and also the land with cotton is worth more than the land with soybean and corn? So what are your thoughts? Do you believe you can wait a little more to capture a rise in the price of farmland vis-a-vis selling the land with soybean?
And the second point about cotton, the company has been trying to add value per hectare by planting cotton. The land is worth more planting cotton. So I'd like to understand what is your ambition in terms of growing the cotton crop, planting more cotton. Well, let's begin with the second. It doesn't change anything. We're increasing the area we have with cotton especially second crop. We believe that this year we had a localized problem in about a year. So in our strategy, Victor, year after year we will have more than 30% increase in the area of planted with cotton. You said very well. One way to add value is to change the multiple of revenue of results of the labs so cotton does this, carton makes the price rise.
For example, we planted cotton in Paraguay. So imagine land that we bought at $300 producing cotton without fertilizer. How much would it be worth? Paraguay doesn't need fertilizer. So when you think of cotton, we have to think of cotton versus others. Like you said, cotton can change the price of lands. Yes. In some farms, yes. We should remember that we have a plan to the area of cotton of 1 million. We're talking about 1.3 million hectares of cotton planted. Most of this cotton 900,000 hectares are in the second crop in 300,000 by year.
The second largest [indiscernible] goes to 1 million, a little below 1.1 million hectares, 300,000 hectares in by year 60,000 in [indiscernible] so 1.6 million hectares in total. Now, we have to remember that if we can elect assets and if we see cotton as a good option. Yes, it's correct. The price of land will rise with the production of cotton. We're planting cotton in Shingu. The multiple in Shingu will go up. The land will be worth more if you have cotton in by year. For example, they have a higher price in the areas that plant only soybean.
Now, when you look at all of Brazil, we have to be capable to understand where the opportunities are, we know that the profitability of cotton is very good in the second crop too. In this second crop has a limit due to the soil. You can't cultivate in areas where you have sandy soils, just giving you an idea, so telling you Andre Areas with potential, for cotton that have the right soil. There is no doubt that these areas will appreciate, will be worth more. Yes. Thank you.
Now, Pedro Fonseca from XP.
Congratulations for the results. My question is about the information on the purchase of fertilizer and chemicals. Can you give us more color concerning the fertilizer that has not been bought yet? So what is your strategy for the fertilizer that hasn't been bought yet? Are you waiting for prices to drop a little?
Pedro, the graph that I showed, shows the price in the international market. Let's remove from this, the pandemic and the war, let's think of normal years. The fertilizer market in the second semester had more offer because most of the agriculture is in the Northern Hemisphere, and they plant in the first semester. So you have an offer that is greater in the second semester on a worldwide level. So this is a driver that makes you wait to buy. So right now we're finalizing the planting in Northern Hemisphere. Farmers in the U.S., they planted in March, April until middle of May. So with a great consumption of fertilizer in the Northern Hemisphere.
When you look at the market, the greater demand for fertilizer in the first semester, in the second, now. Not in October, November, because then you have Brazilian demand. So this is a one strategic vision. Second point. We know that the fertilizer industry in the world has a lot of correlation with natural gas. Natural gas, I say is the intelligent way to sue. You can't store natural gas. So what do you do? You react it with nitrogen, you make ammonia. Yes, but ammonia is a gas. Yes, you react it, and you make with sulfur, you make ammonia sulfate with nitrate, and with others, you make urea, and then now it's solid. You can take the ammonia and react with phosphoric acid, and then you produce that.
So you said, let's look at the lower demand in the world in the second semester, and why the price drops. You have more natural gas in the second semester. Most of the natural gas in the Northern Hemisphere is used for heating the homes. In June, July when you have summer, we have a drop in the consumption of gas in the Northern Hemisphere. This is in normal conditions. This year we have a war.
Yes, it's true we have a war, which is the natural gas should have dropped in price. I believe so. We have a deadline until the middle of August and beginning of September in most operations, and you can buy this fertilizer. I'm talking about phosphate, which we haven't bought yet, and the market begins to change. Yesterday we bought some phosphate for [Shingu] with a lower price, more than 50, with a price, 18% lower. So we began to buy. So in times of volatility, we can't buy at once.
So answering, fertilizer with phosphate we're monitoring, and we have consultancy companies helping us. We understand that the second semester due to these 2 drivers [indiscernible] If our friends decide to stop selling natural gas to Germany, well, things will change. I'm sure that this will affect the price, but you have the second semester with lower demand and more offer on worldwide level. So, for example, so we believe that in the second semester, of course, you can't wait. We would like to wait until the end of second semester but we need the fertilizer in September, October. So the strategic decision is this one. This is valid for phosphate and nitrogen. When I said, in the beginning, nitrogenated until August we already bought, why? We believe that until August we saw a few chances of a change. Another new point.
So for example, we're seeing, we're following. We have 28 ships on the way. Some left before the war, some during the war, and sometimes, and some now. So there has been an important mobilization to say the financial restrictions are there. And there's an understanding that fertilizer is food. Everyone understanding that fertilizer is food. But yes, if you have an interruption in the flow from Russian gas, for example like the ship in Suez Canal, this affected the prices of containers until now because of Evergreen. But in the second semester, things will be solved. It won't go back to historical levels, but there should be an important drop in the prices in the second semester.
I have 2 questions from Jefferson [indiscernible] and Marcello [indiscernible].
Couldn't you give a bonus in shares instead of buying back, and the difference between market value and real value is there a plan to buy shares?
Very interesting. I even wrote it down. Yes, we understand that a bonus in shares. Yes, as I mentioned, we worked hard to increase the liquidity of the company.
Now we understand that there are days where we have 80 million in shares being sold in the stock market. So today, we have much more purchase in sale of our shares in the stock market. So I believe we will study this idea of a bonus in shares. For example, this was suggested by Tarpon when they had-- This was also done by Bradesco Bank, but at the time, we didn't have the right liquidity, a lot of individuals. So now I think we're at a good level in terms of size of investors to evaluate a bonus in shares. Yes, we will analyze. Thank you.
Well, we have 2 more questions. One from Louis Carlos, concerning that the company has a large area for preservation. Can you get a tax benefit because of areas that are preserved? And the other concerning our project for [Indiscernible], can you update on the project in [indiscernible].
Well, to talk about [indiscernible], we could talk all afternoon. We could write a book 50 Shades Of Green for [indiscernible]
First question. Yes, we are participating in 2 projects, 2 large projects in terms of carbon. 50 properties in Brazil, project led by [indiscernible] where we're quantifying the carbon in planting. This will be a driver of results in the future.
Another important project we're working on, this is in line with preservation. Yes, we have a project being done in 2 of our units in [indiscernible] with Sumitomo. You know, Sumitomo? We're quantifying the amount of carbon that we have in the land that is planted and in the land that is preserved. So yes, we're monitoring the value of this carbon. We hired this year [indiscernible] company that looked at our operations and we haven't published this because it's done on a platform and every month we're measuring and evaluating emissions because we believe it's the first step to be certified. So this project was already hired finalized, and they are now measuring. Second point, this project is the first cap 26 is regulating article 6, which talks about payment for this type of service, and every country is developing a methodology.
In the case of [indiscernible], which was in the media, it's okay, we're building a solution together with civil society. And also this land we bought many years ago, we could write a book about this. We finalized this year the process, we have public hearings and we are analyzing and evaluating the possibilities of giving another destination to these assets since it's a region that has a lot of value in terms of preservation.
So we're evaluating the alternatives to use this asset for other objectives and not only production. So this is a project that has eucalyptus. So if we had planted 20,000 hectares of trees, we would have a greater problem. So we're working on a license for cattle raising and we have a bank and 2 private agents discussing a payment for environmental services. So I tried to summarize everything.
Well, next question. [indiscernible] from [indiscernible] Agro Energie.
[indiscernible] mentioned the hedge for anhydrous ethanol.
First of all, it's a great pleasure to talk to you, haven't seen you for a long time. The CFO of [indiscernible] great companion. Yes, so good to talk to you. [indiscernible] Great pleasure to talk to you again. Yes, we are doing exactly that and through BMF. It's a market with low liquidity, I can tell you. I would like more people to be operating there. It has little liquidity. We're doing this in BMF. But it has grown. It has grown. We're operating for 3 years. We see the volume, so 3 years ago and for the volumes. In some months, there were no contracts to be bought. Now, every month we have contracts to buy. But it's a market that is growing, I can tell you that. And it will begin to have more transparency if we have more agents using this tool.
Well, we'd like to conclude the Q&A session, we have some more questions that were sent in writing, we will answer them. So I'd like to thank all the participants. And as you see, we have a promising year. I'd like to thank Andre, Gustavo. And I'd like to pass the floor to Andre and Gustavo for their final comments. Thank you.
Well, I can't take long. But once again, I'd like to thank the trust. This word is the best, the trust, transparency, resilience, and commitment of our team. These are characteristics that set us apart. So, once again, I'd like to thank you all, who trusted the company's work and the company's management. And I'd like to say that we will have good news in terms of people management awards. So it's fundamental the effort we have made with people management because this will guarantee our business in the future. Thank you. And we hope to see you in the annual call. Thank you.