Nemak SAB de CV

BMV:NEMAKA

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Nemak's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Webcast. Armando Tamez, Nemak's CEO; Alberto Sada, CFO; and Denise Reyes, Investor Relations Officer, are here this morning to discuss the company's business performance and answer any questions that you may have.

As a reminder, today's event is being recorded and will be available on the company's Investor Relations website.

I will now turn the call over to Denise Reyes.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. We greatly appreciate your participation. Armando Tamez, our CEO, will lead off today's call by providing an overview of business and financial highlights from the quarter. Alberto Sada, our CFO, will then discuss our financial results in more detail. Afterwards, we will open for a Q&A session, which participants may access live or written on the Q&A function.

Before we get started, let me remind you that information discussed on today's call may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's future financial performance and prospects, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially, and the company cautions you not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Nemak undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events or otherwise.

I will now turn the call over to Armando Tamez.

[Armando Tamez Martínez, executive]

Thank you, Denise. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Nemak's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Webcast. During the period, we made progress on internal initiatives directed at improving margins, alongside commercial negotiations to elevate our top line. From an industry standpoint, global light vehicle sales declined, while production was scaled back to manage and normalize inventory levels in our main regions.

In the third quarter, EBITDA grew 3% year-over-year to $169 million, despite a 9% decline in volume. Additionally, we have consistently reduced capital expenditures by 26%, maintaining a steady downward trend throughout the year.

Commercial negotiations continue apace. Some of these efforts are focused on achieving sustainable margin improvements in our ICE powertrain segment, addressing labor inflation recovery and repricing products that fall below our profitability targets. As the lifetime of the ICE light vehicle extends due to the slowdown of electrification, we anticipate ongoing benefits to our margins and overall profitability.

The remaining commercial negotiations aim to compensate for underutilized capacity in the e-mobility, structure, and chassis applications segment and to accelerate deleveraging efforts. Overall, I am positive about the progress we have made and expect to conclude the negotiations in the fourth quarter.

Moving on to awarded contracts. We have accumulated approximately $220 million in awarded business this year. Of this total, 40% corresponds to ICE vehicles, while the remaining 60% is directed towards platforms where customers offer both ICE and hybrid variants. In line with this trend, we are seeing an increase in the pipeline of requested quotations for hybrid vehicles, which aligns well with our product portfolio.

Our range of lightweighting solutions for hybrid vehicles includes, ICE powertrain and structural components as well as battery housings and other e-mobility components. Overall, the content per vehicle surpasses that of a traditional ICE segment, creating new commercial opportunities for Nemak. I would also like to underscore the flexibility of our casting technologies, which are compatible with the components required for hybrid vehicles.

Continuing with our strategy execution; during the quarter, we successfully launched and started production of a battery housing for a fully electric commercial vehicle from a leading Europe-based manufacturer. To fulfill these orders, we tap into our existing high-pressure die casting capacity. Given the considerable size and the battery capacity requirements of these units, we are providing 23 battery housings per commercial vehicle produced. Moreover, this project reaffirms the contribution of aluminum in reducing the weight of electric vehicles, further improving the battery range and efficiency.

Turning to other highlights, I am pleased to share that Nemak is featured in 5 of Wards 10 Best Engines & Propulsion Systems awards this year. While the electrification revolution is well underway, OEMs are also embracing a wide variety of hybrid solutions, as showcased by this year awarded vehicles, which include 6 hybrid models. We are proud to offer cutting-edge components to our customers and to embody the spirit of innovation in delivering lightweighting solutions.

Our engineering center offers the perfect environment for early strategic collaboration, supporting the development of new technologies. We are currently working on several projects to innovate our assembly processes, specifically in the surface treatment and joining mechanism. With our expertise in 3D printing, simulation models and our ability to predict how joints and materials will perform, we delivered innovative lightweighting solutions that enhance efficiency for our customers.

Before I conclude, I would like to share that Nemak has received the 2024 Top Employer certification at our sites in Brazil, Germany, Mexico, Poland and the United States. This recognition underscores our commitment and dedication to creating a positive work environment where employees feel valued and motivated, ultimately contributing to our overall success and innovation.

This concludes my initial remarks. Thank you for your attention, and I will now hand over the call to Alberto.

[Alberto Sada Medina, executive]

Thank you, Armando, and good morning, everyone. I will begin with an overview of industry trends, followed by a discussion of our financial results for the third quarter of 2024.

During the quarter, we achieved a 3% year-over-year increase in EBITDA, driven mainly by progress in commercial negotiations and operating efficiencies. This result was accomplished despite a 9% reduction in volume due to lower customer production and a slower growth rate in EV adoption.

Moving to industry figures. During the quarter, the seasonally-adjusted annual rate for light vehicle sales in the U.S. was 15.6 million units, similar to the same period of last year. Demand in the U.S. remains resilient, given stable overall economic conditions, where consumer confidence remains positive and incentives continue to increase.

In turn, light vehicle production in North America decreased 3.8% compared to the same period of last year, totaling 3.8 million units as our customers adapt their production schedules to optimize inventory, particularly at Stellantis, which saw its production reduced by 28% year-over-year.

In Europe, seasonally adjusted annualized sales decreased by 4.7% year-over-year to 15.4 million units. This figure compares lower to an abnormal high figure last year, which was influenced by government incentives for hybrids and fully electric vehicles. Following the trend in light vehicle sales, production in the region decreased by 3.7% year-over-year due to price sensitivity.

In China, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for sales was 27.6 million units, 7.6% lower than last year as we see some consumers delay vehicle purchases on the expectations of lower future pricing. Production in the region decreased by 2.1% to 7.3 million units, reflecting lower domestic demand, although it was partly offset by exports.

In South America, the automotive market in Brazil recorded a 9.6% increase in light vehicle sales, rising to an annualized level of 2.5 million units. Consumer demand continues to be fueled by favorable financing costs, and to certain extent, to the recovery of sales following recent floodings. Production in Brazil increased by 7.5% to 0.6 million units, in line with growing consumer demand.

Turning to our financial results. During the third quarter, Nemak's volume was 9.6 million equivalent units, 9% lower year-over-year. This decline was primarily due to reduced vehicle production in North America and lower production of EV components. Consequently, revenue was $1.2 billion, reflecting a 4% decrease year-over-year due to lower volume, partially offset by a more favorable product mix and commercial negotiations.

Notably, EBITDA was $169 million, 3% higher than in the same period of last year, driven by commercial negotiations and operational efficiencies. These factors more than offset the impact of lower volume and labor inflation. Furthermore, EBITDA per equivalent unit increased to $17.6, boosted by progress in customer negotiations.

Operating income was $73 million, 4% lower year-over-year as higher EBITDA was more than offset by the effect of accelerated depreciation of idle operating assets and the favorable effect of other income of last year.

Net income totaled $5 million as our result was affected by the non-cash effect of currency exchange from our euro-denominated liabilities, partially offset by lower income tax. Absent of this effect, net income would have been close to $33 million. Year-over-year, net income compares to $25 million.

Regarding our balance sheet. By the end of the quarter, Nemak's net debt was $1.77 billion, a $12 million sequential increase. During this period, cash flow improvements were more than offset by the effect of the appreciation of the euro on our euro-denominated loans, which totaled approximately $22 million. Furthermore, we have pending commercial claim collections that we expect to be cleared during the fourth quarter, which affected our working capital.

As a result, net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was still at 2.9x by the end of the quarter. We continue to prioritize cash flow generation, aiming for further improvement by the end of the year, supported by net working capital recovery, commercial negotiations and efforts to contain capital expenditures. Additionally, the interest coverage ratio was 5.0x compared to 4.7x in the previous quarter.

I would like to highlight that we continue with our journey to improve our debt profile structure. During this quarter, we secured a $250 million debt transaction, whose proceeds were used to repay short-term debt. The debt facility was structured as a 5-year bullet loan with a SOFR-based variable interest rate. The transaction improved our average debt maturity profile from 4.2 to 4.8 years, maintaining our average cost of debt. This facility showcases the ability we have to tap on multiple financing markets and the confidence that the banking community has on Nemak.

Regarding capital expenditures, Nemak invested $96 million in the third quarter, 26% lower than the same period of last year, as we continue to deploy capital in the most optimal way by reducing capital expenditures and reutilizing existing production assets wherever possible.

Moving to our regional results. During the third quarter, revenue in North America decreased 11% year-over-year to $636 million due to lower production from our customers, particularly Stellantis as well as lower demand for EV components. This was partly offset by commercial negotiations and a favorable product mix. In turn, EBITDA was $78 million, down 10% year-over-year. Continuous progress on customer negotiations and the depreciation of the Mexican peso were more than offset by volume reduction, continued labor cost inflation and additional launching expenses.

In Europe, revenue increased 3% year-over-year to $419 million as commercial negotiations more than offset lower volume. In turn, EBITDA in the region was $68 million, 19% higher compared to the same period of last year on the back of commercial negotiations and operating efficiencies.

In the Rest of the World, revenue increased 14% year-over-year, totaling $169 million, primarily due to higher volume and improved product mix. EBITDA in the region rose 13% to $23 million, benefited from volume, product mix and sustained operating efficiencies.

Generating value for our shareholders remains our top priority. We're committed to streamlining our operations and maximizing the use of our existing assets. By working closely with our customers and conservatively allocating capital, we ensure that every investment is strategic and effective.

Our focus on generating free cash flow remains strong as it is crucial for reducing leverage and enhancing our competitive position. This disciplined approach not only improves profitability, but also position us to lead in innovating of lightweighting solutions for the automotive industry. We're dedicated to driving sustainable growth and delivering long-term value. Thank you for your continued trust and support as we navigate the future with confidence and determination.

I will now turn the call back to Armando.

[Armando Tamez Martínez, executive]

Thank you, Alberto. Considering the significant progress we have made, we are pleased to announce that we expect to exceed our initial EBITDA guidance despite the volume challenges highlighted in recent industry forecasts. Our financial results will be strengthened by both recurring and one time commercial negotiations. Consequently, we're updating our EBITDA guidance to $640 million from our previous range of $570 million to $600 million.

We are confident that these efforts will support the company's long-term financial health, as we continue to navigate the evolving automotive landscape. We remain committed to delivering value to our shareholders.

This concludes my remarks. Thank you for your attention and I will now hand off the call to Denise.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, Armando. We are now ready to move on to the Q&A portion of the event. Participants may ask questions live via webcast or through the Q&A function. Operator, please instruct participants on how to place their questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We will now open the floor for questions. Our first question comes from Marcelo Motta with JPMorgan.

[Marcelo Motta, analyst]

I have 2 questions here. The first is regarding the commercial renegotiations. If you can provide more details about what was the one-off impact during this quarter, and how much is going to be the long-term impact of the renegotiations?

And the second one is regarding CapEx. If we look historically, the company has been with its annual CapEx at around 50% to 60% of EBITDA. This year, definitely, is going to be lower than that. But just wondering, what should we consider as, let's say, a more normalized level of CapEx compared to EBITDA? What is your minimum CapEx for maintenance? So any color on that front would be very helpful.

[Alberto Sada Medina, executive]

Okay. Thank you for your questions, Marcelo. Related to the commercial negotiations. As we highlighted, this is a combination of both one-time claims as well as recurrent ones. But as you may be aware, some of these negotiations have been very special, and due to the nature of those negotiations, we have been asked not to reveal how much of the details have been included.

So, all I can say is that it's a combination of both. Certainly, we have the push towards having those negotiations being as recurrent as we can. So, we should be seeing, with some of these adjustments, improved margins going forward.

[Armando Tamez Martínez, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Marcelo. For the second part of your question related to the CapEx, what we can tell you is the following. Over the last 3, 4 years, the company has been investing heavily to transform the company to move more into the structural components as well as EVs. As it has been indicated before, we are seeing a slowdown on the electric vehicle sales in North America and also in Europe.

So, based on that, what we are seeing is a significant increase in ICEs as well as hybrids. For that reason, we are expecting, going forward, to significantly reduce our CapEx over the next 3 to 5 years. We have already assets and we are prepared and flexible, depending on what is what the customers will be willing to buy. But the company will significantly reduce our CapEx expenditures over the next 3 to 5 years.

[Operator]

There are no further live questions at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Ms. Reyes to address the questions placed via the Q&A function of the webinar.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, operator. We have a set of questions from Declan Hanlon from Santander. First question is, what was the rate of the recent 5-year loan that you completed last month? And can you provide an update on the total available in your committed credit line facilities at the third quarter?

[Alberto Sada Medina, executive]

Thank you for your question, Declan. Yes, as we announced, I mean, we have engaged ourselves in a journey to improve the debt profile going forward. And together with that, we're also looking for ways how to improve our overall cost. So, for that purpose, this 5-year loan came, as we indicated on our press release, at a variable interest rate, SOFR-based with a margin, which is slightly higher than 200 basis points.

So, we believe that it's a quite competitive rate for the structure, as we highlighted, the 5-year bullet loan transactions. And related to the committed lines, those are integral parts of our strategy to make sure that we have adequate funding available all the time. As of now, 100% of our committed credit lines remain available, which total close to $400 million.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, Alberto. A second question from Declan Hanlon from Santander. It looks like you will exceed your EBITDA guidance for the year. Do you also expect working capital cash generation in the current quarter will be sufficient to meet your earlier in the year target of 2.6x to 2.7x net debt to EBITDA?

[Alberto Sada Medina, executive]

Yes. Thanks for that question as well, Declan. Yes, we are not only expecting to achieve the numbers that you referred to, but we believe we can be even lower than that. So we still have plenty of working capital recovery to take place in the fourth quarter. So that should generate sufficient cash, together with the new EBITDA forecast to achieve a 2.5x net debt to EBITDA by the end of the year.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, Alberto. And one follow -up from Declan Hanlon too from Santander. How are the commercial negotiations evolving versus objectives and plans?

[Armando Tamez Martínez, executive]

Yes, thank you, Declan. We have made significant progress related to commercial negotiations with most of our customers in both sides. So, as we have indicated before, we were able to reprice some of the products that were not meeting our profitability targets as well as some recovery for some investments that we made that we are not seeing the volumes materialize.

On both areas, we have been successful so far. We still are in final negotiations, but we feel very, very confident that we will be able to achieve almost 100% of success by the end of this quarter.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, Armando. The next question is from Alfonso Salazar from Scotiabank, and it reads, "Can you provide an update on your free cash flow expectation for the year? Do you still expect free cash flow in 2024 to be positive? And any color on free cash flow expectations for 2025? Thank you."

[Alberto Sada Medina, executive]

Thanks for the question, Alfonso. Well, as we highlighted, we still see a very important reversal of working capital in the fourth quarter, which overall is going to translate into potentially slightly positive free cash flow for the full year basis. So that's the expectation. And as indicated before, with the increase in EBITDA, we should see our leverage ratio come down to that 2.5x net debt-to-EBITDA.

For 2025; at this point, we cannot give too much color. We should be guiding the market later in -- early next year in our next conference. But certainly, our view is to improve our cash generation potential as we continue to reduce capital expenditures, optimize working capital and certainly increase our EBITDA.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, Alberto. The next question is from Mariela Anguiano from Nomura. What does the Trump win mean for Nemak given recent headlines that he plans to impose severe tariffs for vehicles imported from other countries, particularly China?

[Armando Tamez Martínez, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Mariela. I think it's too early to tell. We still need to see who is going to win the election in the U.S. And second, I think we need to remember about the rhetoric of some of the candidates. I think it's very important for us to clarify that in the event of any tariff, we are selling all our products free on board in our plants in Mexico.

So, if there is any additional tariff or duties on the products, those will be responsible 100% by the OEMs, by our customers. So I think, as I indicated, too early to tell. We will be watching this. But I think, if at the end they impose tariff on vehicles produced in Mexico, it will affect certainly the American consumer mainly.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, Armando. We now have a question from Javier Dosal from AM Advisors. Could you share an estimate or some color on how much of your $640 million EBITDA guidance come from the extraordinary compensation?

[Alberto Sada Medina, executive]

Yes, certainly. As highlighted before, these negotiations were very special and confidential, so we cannot release specific data of how much of that result comes from those negotiations. But certainly, as I said, both of them are -- I mean, the negotiations have a combination of both onetime as well as continuous effect of those improvements in pricing and claims.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, Alberto. Next question is from Rodrigo Sanhueza with Invex. Could you further elaborate on the expected reversal of working capital in fourth quarter? What is this related to?

[Alberto Sada Medina, executive]

Well, there's 2 effects there. On one side, we have the seasonal effect on working capital, which, as we know, as of the end of the year, our customers reduce operation and therefore, that represents for us a release in overall working capital that had the reversal effect during the year as we saw changes in operating patterns. And the second one has to do with some of those commercial claims that should be collected within the next few weeks. Some of them, as indicated, were closed in the end of the third quarter, and we should see the cash effect of those happening in the fourth quarter.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, Alberto. The next question is from Consuelo Salazar from [ Lumos Asesores Financieros ]. How are you forecasting demand and production of light vehicles in the USA, China and Europe in 2025?

[Armando Tamez Martínez, executive]

Yes, Thank you, Consuelo. So, what we are seeing, and certainly, we are talking to several analysts as well as our customers, we are seeing a small recovery in the main regions, especially North America and Europe. That is related to lower interest rates, so that will make vehicles more affordable. We are seeing also that now that the OEMs have solved almost 100% the issues on the semiconductors, plus other issues that they had with some suppliers, availability of vehicles is increasing as well as affordability of the same vehicles. So we are seeing a small, let's say, increase in demand and also production for the following year in the 3 main regions.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, Armando. We have a question from Alejandro Rojas from HSBC Mexico. Can you provide us more color regarding factors that affect EBITDA, such as labor inflation and decrease of demand in EVs? And what's the time scope to overcome this?

[Alberto Sada Medina, executive]

Well, thanks for the question, Alejandro. Well, as we have highlighted on previous calls, certainly, we have been subject to a number of cost increases, which have been part of those negotiations with our customers, where we have experienced labor inflation in multiple operations, where we are, particularly in North America. And that has been an effect that we have been able to compensate to a great extent with those commercial negotiations that we have seen.

On the EV side, certainly the decrease in demand is part of the explanation why volumes have been dropping, particularly in North America. And again, also, that's part of those compensations that we have engaged with our customers, which address both the unused capacity side, where the claims obtained from that purpose will be used to reduce our leverage. And the other one is to adjust pricing wherever scale is not meeting the original expectations so that we can have an ongoing satisfactory profitability pattern on the EV side.

Certainly, it is to see in the market how the EV market evolves. At this point, we're seeing a reduction in the growth rate, but still strong objectives to electrify the industry going forward. And as we said before, on those elements, we are supporting the electrification side, both on the battery electric vehicles as well as on the hybrids, which are basically the same type of components that we use for our traditional legacy business.

[Denise Reyes, executive]

Thank you, Alberto. There are no further questions at this time. And with that, we conclude today's event. I would just like to take this opportunity to thank everyone for participating. Please feel free to contact us if you have any follow up questions or comments, and have a good day.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's earnings webcast. Thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.