Grupo Mexico SAB de CV

BMV:GMEXICOB

Earnings Call Transcript 2017-Q4

[Operator]

Good afternoon. Thank you for holding, and welcome to Grupo México's fourth quarter earnings conference call. With us this afternoon is Mr. Xavier García de Quevedo, Mr. Daniel Muñiz, Mr. Fernando López Guerra, Mr. Octavio Ornelas and other executives who will discuss the financial performance of the company during the quarter, giving you a summary of the latest news and address any questions you might have at the end of the call.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that information discussed on today's call may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's results and prospects, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially, and the company cautions not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Grupo México undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. All results are expressed in full U.S. GAAP.

[Operator Instructions]

Now I will pass the call on to Mr. Xavier García de Quevedo. You may begin.

[Xavier García de Quevedo Topete, executive]

Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for joining us today for the Grupo México's 2017 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are top executives from all our managing subsidiaries.

On today's conference call, I will first briefly comment on Grupo México's main financial highlights and then Daniel Muñiz will comment on the mining economic environment of this quarter and the main issues impacting the company's profitability, followed by the most relevant comments on our Mining Division results. Fernando López Guerra will then explain the financial results of our Transportation Division. And after that Octavio Ornelas will comment on the main highlights in our Infrastructure Division. Finally, we will then open the call for Q&A session.

Grupo México financial highlights. Going into the quarter's numbers. Consolidated revenues in fourth quarter were 33% higher than in fourth quarter '16. Thus, accumulated revenues for 2017 reached $9.78 billion, 20% higher versus 2016, driven by higher metal prices and outstanding results in our Transportation Division. EBITDA for this year reached USD 4.54 billion, 35% greater than 2016. Consolidated net profit reached $1.39 billion in 2017, 20% (sic) [ 27% ] higher despite the accounting charge from taxes due to the U.S. tax reform, totaling $529 million, which have no bearing on cash flow. Excluding this effect, net profit would have totaled $1.92 billion, $820 million higher than in 2016, translating into a 75% increase.

Capital investments settled at $3.58 billion in 2017, USD 1.17 billion of which were invested in the Mining Division, $2.38 billion in the Transportation Division that includes the acquisition of 100% of the shares of Florida East Coast Railway and $27 million in the Transportation Division. Thus, total investments in 2017 grew 125% versus 2016.

We have a strong capital structure to generate value. Our balance sheet is solid with low leverage. I'm very comfortable that the debt payment that will allows us to have financial flexibility to benefit from the market opportunities. Committed with value for our shareholders, the company board approved a quarterly dividend payment of MXN 0.50 per share outstanding, which will be paid in cash on February 28, 2018.

Now I will pass the call to Daniel.

[Daniel Muñiz Quintanilla, executive]

Thank you, Xavier. Well, I'm going to talk about the Mining Division, as Xavier pointed out. And to start off, looking at the recent market drop, but still we're happy to see improved sentiment in the copper market. We believe it's supported by strong fundamentals. During 2017, we saw copper prices increasing based on healthy growth in demand and several supply disruptions at some of the world's copper mines like Escondida and Grasberg. The average copper price for the year was $2.80 per pound, 28% above the 2016 price of $2.20. For this year, the market expects that copper price will remain close to $3.15 per pound. Further, we are very optimistic and believe in further price increases in the next coming years.

The following aspects are supportive of these price increases: growth of the main world economies, especially China, Europe and the United States. According to analysts, there'll be a copper market deficit in 2018, and this deficit will continue for several years. There have been issues in the environmental restrictions in China that have caused temporary closures of some smelters. There were also a series of smelter and refinery output costs that constrained production growth. The input restriction in China of copper scrap has generated greater consumption of refined copper.

Finally, there's a widespread fear of possible copper supply interruptions for next year due to the expiration of many of the collective bargaining agreements in several copper mines in Chile and Peru.

For global refined copper demand in 2018, analysts expect growth of about 2.1%. Regarding copper supply, we have seen weak growth as a result of the lack of investments in new projects in recent years. We've seen labor unrest, excess government taxation and technical difficulties that are further reducing production. Because of these factors, we expect a supply growth of approximately 1% in 2018, yielding a copper market deficit this year, which will give strong support for copper price.

Briefly just talking about zinc, which, as you know, is one of our main byproducts. The market is in a high demand and reduced supply mode. Inventory levels have drastically reduced and price has reached its highest in 10 years.

Regarding molybdenum, we see a strong market with supported fundamentals. We have budgeted for next year molybdenum price close to $10 for 2018.

This was a remarkable year for our Mining Division. In Mexico, we have the benefit of all our expansions in full operation, including the Buenavista mine after having concluded its $3.5 billion investment program. Buenavista is a world-class copper operation with leading production, the largest reserves in the world and one of the lowest cash costs in the industry.

During 2017, we also advanced our investment program in Peru. We've been toggling in our Toquepala mine. This project has reached 87% progress and is expected to initiate production in June 2018. This project will yield an additional 40,000 tons of copper production for 2018 and from then on 100,000 additional tons starting 2019.

As we've stated, our investment philosophy is not based on the outlook of copper prices but on the quality of the assets. Throughout the years, our strong financial discipline has consistently allowed us to invest on a continued basis in our great asset portfolio. Therefore, we remain equally enthusiastic for the future as we are uniquely positioned to continue delivering enhanced performance, sustainable growth and superior value. More importantly, growth continues as we are working hard to produce 1.5 million tons of copper by 2024. We believe we can achieve this through the development of one of the best pipelines of profitable projects that there are -- that there is in the industry.

Now changing gears to our Mining Division results, which, as you know, comprises of Southern Copper and Asarco in our holding company, which is Americas Mining Corporation. We consolidated again as a company with the lowest cash cost in the industry. In 2017, copper cash cost per pound after byproducts reached $1.11 per pound of copper. This is mostly in line with 2016 cash cost and despite the relevant 18% increase in diesel prices during 2017. This cash cost was achieved mainly because the reductions we obtained in electricity, mainly in Peru, 8% less; tariff, 10% less; and other cost elements and higher by-product credits, of course.

Cash cost before byproducts was $1.61 per pound. With copper prices increasing 27% and sales volumes increasing 1.8%, revenues increased 22% with respect to 2016. Sales reached $7.5 billion versus the $6.2 billion of last year. EBITDA for the year was $3.5 billion but it's 51% higher year-over-year with an EBITDA margin of 37%. Finally, net income for the year was $1 billion, 27% higher than in 2016. However, as you know, there was a tax reform by the end of last year, which affected most of the U.S. companies. As you know, Americas Mining and Southern Copper and Asarco are American companies incorporated there and, therefore, are subject to U.S. taxation. So the $1 billion net income includes a onetime noncash, it's on the accounting, income tax reform adjustment of $529 million. In 2017 net income, if we don't take into account this accounting tax impact to the P&L, it would have been $1.6 billion. That would have been 90% higher than in 2016.

So now looking into the capital investment project that we currently have. We continue to work and to create value to our shareholders, and we invested $1.2 billion this year. We had already the conference call of Southern Copper, so I don't want to get into all the details that we did in that conference call. However, that's open for questions and answers if you didn't join us in the Southern conference call -- Southern Copper conference call. And just to remind you, I mean, we still have a portfolio of projects in Peru with a total capital budget of $2.9 billion, of which we've already invested $1.6 billion.

The most important project, as I mentioned, is the Toquepala expansion project. Again, this will be ready June next year. We're also working on the Cuajone's mineral crushing and hauling project. And we keep on working for the last years in the Tia Maria project. According to local surveys, we have made significant progress in social acceptance of this project, which has the approval of the majority of the Islay province population. We're currently working with the Peruvian government to obtain the construction permit for this project, which will produce 120,000 tons of only SX/EW copper. That's 120,000 tons per year with a budget of $1.4 billion. We are very optimistic and working towards obtaining this license in the first half of this year.

Regarding the Mexican project, and we detailed the Buenavista Zinc project in the Buenavista mine, so there is an ore deposit there, which will allow us to produce an additional 80,000 tons of zinc per year and an additional 20,000 tons of copper per year. This project has a CapEx of $413 million and we expect to be ready by 2020.

The other project that we detailed was Pilares, which is located only 6 kilometers away from our La Caridad mine in Sonora. And this has an annual production capacity of 35,000 tons of copper and concentrates. This is $160 million in CapEx and will start producing in 2019.

Now real briefly on the Spanish project that we have, the Aznalcóllar mine, which is 35 kilometers away from the city of Seville. We concluded the intense exploration campaign, and the results to date provide positive confirmation of the initial information we had on the project and suggest promising potential to eventually increase the initial size of the orebodies. We're working on an updated feasibility study, and that will be finalized this year. And we're all going to go into the permitting process and is a project that we expect to start operations by 2022. This will be an additional 100,000 tons of zinc equivalent.

With this, I'll pass on the call to Fernando, and happy to discuss in the Q&A if you have any.

[Fernando López Guerra, executive]

Thank you, Daniel. We're very happy to inform you that during 2017, GMXT, Transportation Division for Grupo México, achieved an all-time high record EBITDA of MXN 16.5 billion, which is a 14.4% growth when compared to 2016. This is followed -- this followed the consolidation of 2 quarters of results from Florida East Coast, the acquisition we completed on June 30, 2017, and the sound results from all of the rest of our operations in Mexico and Texas. Our revenues were also record-high figures as revenues grew 17% versus '16, mainly driven by Intermodal and Mineral segment.

Volume in net ton kilometers increased 7% versus '16 while carloads grew 21% given the FEC acquisition and higher volumes in Mexican operations, as stated before. Net income was mainly affected by an increase of MXN 1,000 million in interest due to higher debt contracted on the FEC acquisition.

On the operational side, our fuel efficiency improved by 8%, making it possible to counter the effects of almost a 20% increase in fuel prices.

Train speed rose 20%, which is a very important metric for us because it's asset turnover at its best. So the faster we become, the less locomotive, the less railcars, the less sidings and the less capacity on the network that we need. Therefore, we need it. The requirement for CapEx diminishes as well. So as we become faster, our capacity increases. We also -- the speed that we achieved is due to the measures that we implemented to eradicate theft and vandalism, and it's a payoff of all the investments we've been doing throughout the years to improve the quality of the product.

We would also like to share with you that earlier today we held our first GMXT's conference call as a listed company to discuss the results. So any question or details that you might want, you might also find them on the slide deck that we prepared for the call and it's in our web page at GMXT or Grupo México's as well.

GMXT's IPO is the largest transportation offer made in the LatAm region and it is also the largest IPO in the Mexican market in the past 5 years.

With nothing further, I'm open for question later on. Octavio, I will pass the call to you.

[Octavio Ornelas Esquinca, executive]

Okay. Thank you, Fernando. I will talk about the Infrastructure Division's main highlights in 2017. Consolidated revenues reached $582 million, which is 4% less than in the previous year. EBITDA in the division reached $233 million, translating into a 16% decrease from the previous year mainly due to the PEMSA results given the suspension of contracts by PEMEX and the reduction in the platform rates.

On the other hand, net profit was affected mainly by the peso appreciation, which caused a negative effect of $10 million and also by inflationary effects, which generated a negative impact worth $15 million. All these effects are due to the size of the debt that we have in the Infrastructure Division.

On the energy side, during 2017, we reached a new record in energy generation, with a power -- with an increase of 14% from 2016 and an average power of 413 megawatts. During the year, refunds from surplus sales to Minera Mexico were made, totaling $34 million, which reduced Minera Mexico average rate by 23.6% between June and October and 11.4% in the annual rate.

On the Salamanca Highway Leon Highway, during 2017, the highway reported MXN 656 million in revenues and a weighted average daily traffic of 11,970 vehicles. This means actually a 23% increase in sales from 2016. The traffic flow surpasses by 39%, the equivalent traffic agreed with the SCT in Mexico.

On the construction company side, during last year, revenue totaled USD 138 million, which was a 13% increase against 2016 given the construction of a new railway to connect the new Mexico City airport, the direct access to the city of Leon from the Salamanca-Leon highway and greater construction volumes in Sonora.

Finally, we have the engineering company, which increased its sales by 8% due to the [ alteration ], among others, of the design of the Toquepala project by the construction company.

Finally, let me talk about the oil and drilling business. 2017 has not been, for the oil and drilling business, a good year due to the challenging situation with PEMEX. During the year, our jack-up showed a reduction in utilization due to the temporary suspension of some contracts and the decrease in rates by PEMEX. We were able to partly offset the negative impact of our oil and drilling company with very good results in our other businesses.

For 2018, we're expecting a much better outlook for the business due to the forecast of oil prices, which are expected to be in the range of $55 to $65 per barrel. Among other things, PEMEX already has closed future contracts at a strike price of $46.

Finally, actually, we would like to share with you that right now we're analyzing the possibility of making capital investments for fuel storage terminals at ports and cities. And also, we have registered for a majority stake in Round 3.1 shallow waters for oil and gas exploration and extraction projects in the Gulf of Mexico. We will share more details of these investments in the next quarters, but we believe these projects could add value and growth to our Infrastructure Division.

Thank you very much. With this, we conclude our comments to the earnings results of 2017. Thank you very much for joining us today. And operator, would you please open the sessions of Q&A?

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] And our first question online comes from Arthur Suelotto from Bradesco BBI.

[Arthur Suelotto, analyst]

My first question is still regarding the suspension of contracts and the decrease in PEMEX rates. If I remember correctly, on the previous quarter, you mentioned that you're already considering restarting operation at the modular rig in December and also considering the restart of operations at Chihuahua during the course of 2018. I was wondering if you could give us an update regarding the potential restarts? And also if I may, another question here, also on the Infrastructure Division, but now considering the potential investment in a new toll road and also on [indiscernible], I wonder if you also could give us an update regarding these potential investments.

[Marlene de la Torre, executive]

Yes, sure. Give us a second, Arthur.

[Octavio Ornelas Esquinca, executive]

Okay, Arthur. Thank you for your question. First, regarding PEMEX, as you say, the Tamaulipas rig, most of it has been translated to Mexico. And right now we are building up once again the rigs in the fixed platform by PEMEX. We are going to end the works of rigging up the platform by the end of March of this year. So PEMEX give us an extension to begin operations by the 1st of April of the year. Second, the Chihuahua platform jack-up was supposed to enter into operation the 1st of January of this year. But because of the [indiscernible] by PEMEX, we were not able to put into operation the Tamaulipas rig -- this works -- excuse me, the Chihuahua rig. So we're still waiting for PEMEX in order to put in place working the jack-up.

[Marlene de la Torre, executive]

And then regarding the new investments in the toll road, we keep on analyzing.

[Xavier García de Quevedo Topete, executive]

Yes. Regarding the new investment in the toll roads, we received an award for the [ Ilau ] toll road that we will interconnect our Salamanca-Leon toll road with the entrance of Guanajuato. So we are in the process of signing the concession agreement with the local government of Guanajuato. I would remind you that this is an investment of about MXN 1.7 million, and we will begin this toll road construction in the second quarter of 2018.

[Operator]

Our next question online comes from Christian Landi from Scotiabank.

[Christian Landi, analyst]

I just wanted to ask Fernando once again to clarify from the GMXT conference call. Did you say that the EBITDA margin for the FEC operation is around 500 bps lower than the Mexico operation? And I believe you mentioned that these were the facts that affected or impacted EBITDA margin for Q4 in the GMXT, in the Transportation Division. And if you could expand a little bit on the drivers why this is so, if it is mix, if it's -- what are the reason behind lower margins affecting Q4?

[Fernando López Guerra, executive]

Sure, Christian. Thank you. Yes, you are correct. There is a 400, 500 basis point difference between the margin in the Florida East Coast and the one in Ferromex, the one in the Mexican operation. The main driver is part of the revenue from Florida comes from our over-the-road, which is our trucking company, which is Raven. About $90 million -- $80-something-million comes from over-the-road. As you know, over-the-road has a lower margin than railroad. Usually, however, we believe that we can align the strategy and focus it on a Florida basis so that everything that's moving into and out of Florida, it doesn't matter if it's rail, truck or intermodal, which is a mixture of both, we will look to gain market share over that market. So we think of it as a positive, and it creates value for us as an entire company. That's why we decided to keep it, and that's why we -- for us, as a strategy going forward, it makes a perfect match.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question online comes from Carlos De Alba from Morgan Stanley.

[Carlos de Alba, analyst]

Could you comment, Daniel, on any updates that you may have on the Aznalcóllar project, particularly given the strong zinc prices that we're seeing, if management or the company is accelerating the works around the operation, so it can come into production earlier than before was planned. And then in terms of potential dividends or something to kick-start the stock given that it has continued to go down in the last few weeks -- obviously, the market is not happy. But in general, you have not increased as much as obviously Southern Copper and as much as other copper names. Is the company or management planning on doing anything to help on -- open up or release value from the company?

[Daniel Muñiz Quintanilla, executive]

Thank you, Carlos. Let me start off with the Aznalcóllar project. I mean, of course, I mean, we got into this project even though it wasn't in our primary market but it's in the Americas because we saw an important opportunity regarding zinc. And although this is a polymetallic, you have some copper, you have some gold, silver and lead, it is mostly zinc. Yes, we are trying to accelerate as fast as possible. As most of you remember, this mine was an open pit mine, which was operated onto the '90s. And there's a lot of environmental work there. There's a lot of, I mean, exploration work. We are transitioning. No longer will be an open pit mine. It will be an underground mine. And we're doing and working as fast as possible. I mean, we have all our teams working to accelerate, as you mentioned, the start of production there. But yes -- but unfortunately, more of a greenfield, so to speak, than a brownfield operate it earlier. But we are essentially building a new project. So yes, I mean, but -- I mean, I guess, very good news. We are confirming and getting more reserves out of it. And we have a full team working nonstop, and looking forward to give you updates as soon as we conclude the permitting process and carry on. But no -- we have not been delayed or anything. On the contrary, we've been pushing the gas there. And now just regarding your question, I think it might be referred to Xavier García de Quevedo regarding dividend and the stock of Grupo México. But I can tell you from the Mining Division, what we've been looking and working at, it's been, as you know and you and I and most of the guys in the call have discussed, is the IPO or the possible IPO of Americas Mining Corporation, where we believe we'll have the benefit of having all our mining assets under one single corporate structure. And that will allow, I mean, a better valuation result. And that's one of the things that we believe can help get a better valuation, as you were asking. But I mean, regarding dividends and then the other things at a corporate level at Grupo México, as you know, I'm no longer the CFO of Grupo. Xavier is the CFO. So I'll defer the question to him. Xavier?

[Marlene de la Torre, executive]

Yes. Carlos, this is Xavier and Marlene on this side. Regarding Grupo México -- the share of Grupo México, we -- the board decided to increase the dividends to MXN 0.50, and this is quarterly. This is almost a 2% dividend yield if we annualize this. So we have been analyzing other possibilities, such as share buybacks or other things. But for now because we have kept on investing in our growth projects and generating value, and we -- this 2017, we increase -- as Mr. Xavier mentioned before, we increased our investments. For now we decided to increase the dividend. So this is something that we'll continuously analyze, and the board meeting will make the decisions and make the best decision to give more value to our shareholders.

[Operator]

Our next question online comes from Alex Hacking from Citi.

[Alexander Hacking, analyst]

Daniel, so I just wanted to clarify, did you just say that the potential IPO of Americas Mining is back under consideration now? And if so, are you considering the same kind of parameters that you were a few years ago of listing in London or Toronto? Or is there kind of a different plan now?

[Daniel Muñiz Quintanilla, executive]

Thank you, Alex, I mean, and thanks for the clarification. Yes, I mean, it's not that we're working full speed on the IPO, that we're planning on issuing a press release on it. I mean, it was more of the things that we've always discussed with you and the rest of the market on how to create value and how to put together the mining assets and the mining companies that we currently operate. So yes, I mean, I guess, just in a nutshell, the way we looked at it in the past has been very dependent on price of copper. So fortunately, we saw last year an increase and we've talked earlier about the, I mean, reasons and supporting fundamentals that we see going forward. So yes, I mean, we should -- we are thinking about that if prices keep on getting higher. Yes, we are thinking about London. That might be the appropriate market for the company. I mean, as you pointed out, yes, in the past, we've analyzed New York and Toronto as well. I mean, that's a decision we haven't made. I mean, we do believe that London might be the appropriate market for a company our size and where most of our peers are listed and most of the research guys are there, et cetera. But that's still to be defined. And as soon as we are ready to announce something, I'll let you know. Just we are doing some homework and trying to start to -- I mean, get some things done. As you know, it's a long process for an IPO. And -- but that's -- as we've mentioned many times, that's the ultimate idea of the corporate structure of the Mining Division.

[Alexander Hacking, analyst]

And can I just follow up, if I may? Can you remind us, when you are considering this last time, is the long-term goal to have 3 levels of publicly traded companies, i.e. Grupo México, Americas Mining and Southern Copper? Or would you consider remaining at 2 levels of publicly traded entities?

[Daniel Muñiz Quintanilla, executive]

No. Definitely -- I mean, when we say IPO, we're just talking about listing the Americas Mining Corporation. So that would essentially have the 3-layer structure that you just described. Yes. Your question is, are we working on the listing or something like that? No, we're not. I mean, that will be -- the only thing that we've been analyzing in the last couple of boards or in the last board was the IPO and trying to get ready in the markets there. And we believe the sentiment has changed dramatically, I'm sure you agree, now regarding commodities and regarding copper in the last 3 years. And so I mean, just getting ready again to make a serious analysis, and that's where we are.

[Alexander Hacking, analyst]

I apologize. I just wanted to follow up. So just to press you a little bit, if I may, and I promise this is the last question. Why do you believe that listing AMC in London would sort of add incremental value to Grupo México when Southern Copper is already traded and gets, I would say, the market -- gets a fairly good multiple. Would it just be -- but what you would rather be doing will be sort of adding Asarco, right?

[Daniel Muñiz Quintanilla, executive]

No, not only Asarco. I mean, that -- you've kind of given the answer. But yes, I mean, first of all, we believe in Asarco's profitability long term. We like the asset. With the new tax law, it becomes more accretive, the Asarco assets in the United States. We're concluding the heating smelter modernization that's under construction for a couple of years. We -- as you remember, in the low price environment, we shut down some parts of our facilities there, the highest cost of operating assets there. And with this present environment, it's much, much better. Then we also have Aznalcóllar, which I detailed in the earlier question, and that's a new project that's going to come in, I mean, 2022. I mean, there -- we believe that there are many things that are positive and that will be helpful that could propel probably the market not valuing, let's say, the profit correctly from our point of view. But that's part of the hundreds that we'll be doing. And as soon as we have some, we'll get back to you.

[Operator]

Our next question online comes from Alfonso Salazar from Scotiabank.

[Alfonso Salazar, analyst]

Daniel, you were saying about this IPO of -- potential IPO in the future of AMC. You just finished the railway's IPO and Grupo's holding discount today is definitely high. So I'm not sure if that is going to have reducing -- or why do you think that is going to be the case to reduce the holding discount? And also, if you can give us an Asarco update. Tell us something about what do you expect for 2018 and '19 in terms of EBITDA -- I'm sorry, of production and the CapEx, please.

[Daniel Muñiz Quintanilla, executive]

Sure, Alfonso. I mean, basically -- well, I mean, some of the price discounts to Grupo is something that probably the corporate level have to analyze. I mean, we do believe that Americas Mining will be properly valued and have more -- when it has more transparency to the assets that are not part of Southern Copper, i.e. again, Asarco, Aznalcóllar, et cetera. But part of the work that we're doing -- I mean, I was trying to answer Carlos De Alba's question regarding what things can help. I think this can help. I mean, that's the work that we're doing. And again, I mean, the ones we are talking about, Asarco, yes -- I mean, as I told you, we are -- we've finished kind of like the -- we are restarting, so to speak, with this present environment the re-production. We have better terms in terms of labor. If you recall, we kind of froze a lot of the pensions and medicals and a lot of things that came from variable time. So I mean, this company is getting streamlined, is getting more efficient. We are working hard on that. As I said, [indiscernible] to be total compliant with the U.S. environmental laws, plus more efficient, and that's pretty much where we are. Let me give you a little bit of data in terms of guidance. I mean, in the U.S. -- and let me take production first. Production will be around 130,000 tons -- or 135,000 tons this year of copper, and it will be like that until 2022, we'll be around 167,000 tons of copper. The cash cost to it will be lower and will reach around $2.07. That is with byproducts of that year. And if the U.S. for EBITDA -- just going back to -- I mean, let's say if it's $3.25 price of copper, EBITDA for this year would be around $200 million.

[Operator]

Our next question online comes from Rodolfo De Angele from JPMorgan.

[Rodolfo De Angele, analyst]

Still on the -- 2 on Americas Mining. Could you give us -- 2 questions. First, the idea would be to do primary or secondary or a mix of both? And can you talk a little bit about the timing on this IPO?

[Daniel Muñiz Quintanilla, executive]

Yes. I mean, first of all, again, this was -- it's something that is work in progress. We're not launching the IPO now, as I pointed out. And so the timing is not real clear. I mean, we are going to start doing some work to try to get -- and to be ready to see if that makes sense and present that to our board. The second thing is -- I mean, at the moment, if you ask me, I think that, that should be primary, which will provide a challenging use of proceeds. But we do have very important projects like El Arco and Los Chancas. El Arco is in Baja California. That's almost 200,000 tons of copper and Los Chancas is 145,000 tons of copper per year. So these are around $2.8 billion of CapEx each project. So I mean, we do have an important pipeline of projects that we could use the profits for. But then I mean, again, we're starting to analyze this and happy to give you more details next call if we are progressing or not.

[Operator]

And at this time, I see we have no further questions in queue.

[Marlene de la Torre, executive]

Thank you. Thank you so much for joining us, and we'll keep in touch. Thank you so much.

[Operator]

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.