Becle SAB de CV
BMV:CUERVO
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Becle SAB de CV
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Becle SAB de CV
The company experienced an 8.5% decline in consolidated net sales, falling to MXN 10.5 billion. Nonetheless, adjusting for currency fluctuations, there was a gutsy 4.3% uptick in the top line, which can be attributed to a more profitable product mix and price increases. Still, the gross margin took a hit, shrinking from 54.1% to 48.1%, primarily due to the Mexican peso's rise against the U.S. dollar and soaring input costs.
Expenses tied to advertising and promotions (A&P) escalated, comprising 25.5% of net sales versus last year's 19.2%. However, the annual A&P figure hewed close to the forecast, locking in at 22.9%. On a brighter note, distribution expenses diminished both in absolute terms and as a share of net sales. Although general, selling, and administrative costs ticked up due to inflation and dropped sales, operating income tumbled by 66%, and net income plunged by 88%, leaving earnings per share to linger at a modest MXN 0.6. The finance department had a rough quarter as well, battling a substantial forex loss and increased interest charges.
The leadership team expressed conviction in overcoming the present margin squeeze thanks to expected decreases in agave prices, which should bolster medium and long-term profitability. However, due to unique product aging requirements, these cost savings will likely bolster gross margins only in the latter half of the next year. In the interim, the robust 8.9% sales growth in the EMEA APAC region, despite slower shipments, reassures investors of underlying market vigor.
The ultra-premium segment has decelerated alongside shifts from on-premise to off-premise consumption patterns. The contrast with other consumer industry trends suggests a tentative consumer climate specifically for this company's market. Despite this, there's optimism for normalization in SG&A expenses as the company historically operates with a competitive, single-digit figure relative to net sales.
The firm's guidance remains unaltered, projecting high single-digit revenue growth in constant currency terms for the full year. Capital expenditures are expected to hover in the lower spectrum between USD 200 million and USD 225 million.
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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining Becle's Third Quarter Unaudited Financial Results Conference Call. During this call, you may hear certain forward-looking statements. These statements may relate to our future prospects, developments and business strategies and may be identified by the use of terms and phrases such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, predict, project, will, goals, target, strategy and similar terms and phrases and may include references to assumptions. Forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions regarding our business, the economy and other future conditions.
Because forward-looking statements relate to the future, by their nature, they are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in certain circumstances that are difficult to predict. Our actual results may differ materially from those in forward-looking statements. For other foregoing reasons, you are cautioned [indiscernible] statements. We undertake no obligations to publicly update or revolt any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, events or otherwise. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that if we discussed on this call were prepared in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards or IFRS and published on the Mexican Stock Exchange.
The information for the third quarter of 2023 is preliminary and is provided with the understanding that once financial statements are available, updated information will be shared in the appropriate electronic format. At this time, we would like to remind the participants that your lines are on this in only mode until the Q&A session. I would now like to pass the line to Becle's CEO, Mr. Juan Domingo Beckmann. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as we discuss Becle's third quarter 2023 results. In the third quarter, U.S. and Canada experienced honorably notable recovery and overcame earlier hurdles related to off-cycle pricing adjustments. Volume and net sales in U.S. dollars were up versus the third quarter of 2022, partly driven by the successful execution of our premiumization and pricing strategies. Our premium tequila segment continued to experience strong demand, outperforming the overall growth of the tequila market in the region.
As indicated by recent Nielsen data. On the other hand, Mexico faced a challenging third quarter due to market factors affecting the spirits industry. However, we maintained a strong market position, supported by our premiumization strategy. Due to today performance in Mexico has shown resilience marked by growth in value and increased revenue per case due to strategic pricing and product mix. In the EMEA region, the economic slowdown has impacted consumer spending, resulting in a decline in third quarter volume and net sales. Nevertheless, we are outperforming major competitors in key markets and sustaining our market share growth.
Meanwhile, the APAC region saw substantial growth in both volume and sales, primarily attributed to the expansion of the segment an increase among more consumers. The year-to-date growth of region is encouraging. We are confident in our brands enduring value and our capability to deliver sustainable growth for our shareholders. The successful execution of our premiumization strategy and long-cycle lasting popularity has played a higher loan in a holding our core business resilience and adaptability in the face of a raging challenges.
In addition, the recent price declines in the rate market are important tailwinds for our tequila portfolio on working capital requirements cash flow, long-term profitability and earnings generation capabilities. I will now turn the call over to Luis Felix further discuss our U.S. and government takes.
Thank you, everyone, and good morning, everyone. I am pleased to share that the United States and Canada reported a positive third quarter. Marking a recovery and normalization following the challenges faced in the first half of the year, primarily due to the off-cycle price increases. Can we note that the results in the following remarks were prepared on a constant currency basis. Starting in May, we began to notice a gradual improvement in net sales value, which continued into the current quarter with an increase of 12.5% compared to the same period of last year.
This positive trend is a result of our price increases across our full strength spirits portfolio and the successful execution of our premiumization strategy, driven by the resilient performance of our super and ultra-premium tequila brands. Shipments for the third quarter grew by 6.8% compared to the same period last year. While attrition declined slightly by 2.5% due to the challenges in the RTD category, the kina depletions grew by 4% compared to the third quarter of 2022. As we anticipated in the previous conference call, our distributor partners have begun to restock their inventory to agreed upon levels during the third quarter of 2023 in preparation for the holiday season.
This trend is encouraging. However, we need to be cautious as we are facing a high comparable base in the fourth quarter. In the competitive landscape, our performance in the U.S. during the quarter stood out positively compared to our peers, basing the 13 weeks needs value indicators the overall spirits industry experienced a slow 1% growth, with the tequila category being key growth driver, increasing by 5.5%.
Our tequila portfolio grew by 7.4%, outpacing the category growth rate, Similarly, our whiskey portfolio consolidated its strong position, increasing by 7.6%, while the total whiskey category grew by 2.4%. [indiscernible] number numbers are also showing positive performance. In the third quarter of 2023, our NAFTA consumer value grew 12.7%, outperforming the industry average of 2.3%. As we approach the year-end, our focus remains on maintaining the positive momentum. We remain confident that our tequila-based premiumization strategy will continue to deliver substantial value, supported by a strong portfolio mix and the ongoing improvement of the RTD category. I will now turn the call over to Olga Limon to discuss the Mexico and Latin America results.
Thank you, Luis, and good morning, everyone. Mexico had a challenging third quarter. Primarily due to setbacks in the non-alcoholic category, alongside broader macroeconomic headwinds and which led to a significant market contraction impacting most categories across the entire spirits industry. Despite this economic slowdown, we maintained a strong position outperforming the market and our peers supported by our premiumization strategy.
In the second quarter, we took over distribution of Boost from a third party. Following this, we have to adjust to a packaging regulation change that affected the volume of the brand. Excluding these disruptions in the distribution and the regulatory hurdles, we would have experienced a 16.3% year-over-year contraction in total volume for the third quarter. On a year-to-date basis, Mexico's performance was resilient with a 7.3% growth in net sales value. Additionally, our average revenue per case increased 16% year-over-year.
Mainly attributed to a favorable product mix. We continue to focus on our premiumization and have seen the positive outcomes of the pricing adjustments we implemented in March. Across Latin America, the business landscape also remains challenging, influenced by a complex macroeconomic environment and going political uncertainties. Despite these factors, we've observed the benefits of a higher average price per case, driven by our premiumization strategy. Overall, our year-to-date performance has demonstrated our ability to navigate a challenging market environment equally, showing our resilience and growth potential. We remain committed to our strategic initiatives, focusing on premiumization and maintaining a competitive advantage.
We will continue to closely monitor our overall brand portfolio as the market contracts and potential signs of down trading emerge. I will now turn the call over to Gordon Dron, Managing Director of INAP region. Thank you.
Many thanks, Olga, and good morning. The economic slowdown in Europe is starting to dampen consumer spending. According to Nielsen, the consumer basket cost has increased by 18% over the past year. By contrast, the economic slowdown in Asia, excluding Australia, has not yet significantly impacted consumer spending patterns. In the EMEA region, GTR customers since the end of August are reporting a notable decline in sales, particularly for standard brands. This decline is evident in the Q3 performance when compared to the same period of last year, with Q3 sales declining by a low double-digit percentage and net sales dropping by mid-single digits.
Despite this contraction, external data sources indicate that we are outperforming all our major competitors in key markets, while our market share continues to grow. In Asia Pacific, Q3 volumes grew by nearly 50%, reflecting the significant expansion of tequila and our increasing traction with more consumers, especially with both mills. China remains a challenging market particularly within the on-trade segment as Chinese authorities enforced a 90-day closure of numerous mag clubs and KTVs due to its hosting of the Asian games. This temporary measure is set to be lifted by the end of October, and the games have now ended.
Looking at the year-to-date numbers, the overall situation remains encouraging. EMEA volumes have increased by a high single digit and value by double digit in constant currency. In Asia Pacific, the business has also grown at a double digit in volume and value compared to year-to-date 2022. Bearing in mind that Asia Pacific was predominantly in lockdown during the first half of 2022.
While the European outlook remains challenging, we are confident in our ability to maximize our take of consumer spending in Q4 and driven by market share gains and successful imitation of our corporate strategies. For Asia Pacific, our perspective remains positive through the end of 2023. I will now pass the call over to Fernando Suarez.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I will now walk you through the financial results for the third quarter of 2023. The company reported an 8.5% year-over-year decrease in consolidated net sales to MXN 10.5 billion. On a pro forma basis, adjusting for currency changes, -- our top line increased by 4.3% during the quarter. This increase was driven by a product mix skewed towards brands with higher sales per case and year-on-year price increases. Gross profit decreased by 19% in the third quarter to MXN 5.1 billion, while gross margin decreased from 54.1% in the third quarter of 2022 to 48.1% in the same period of this year. The decrease in gross margin was primarily due to foreign currency effects caused by the appreciation of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar or roughly 400 basis points of margin erosion to a lesser degree by higher input costs. This was partially offset by price increases across the regions, favorable shift in the geographic mix and a recent decline in the Arabian market pricing environment. We've been observing a downward trend in our rate prices. While -- this decrease holds permits for our medium-term outlook. It's important to note that this change is relatively recent and was not completely offset the foreign exchange pressures stemming from the appreciation of the Mexican peso. Additionally, the positive cost savings impact was not material that will not materialize immediately in our P&L. This delay is mainly attributed to the aging process of our products, which can require some time before they are ready for bottling. As we gradually transition through our older inventory produced with higher cost materials. There is an expected time lag in achieving cost reductions.
As such, we do not expect any material benefits from lower input costs in our gross margin until the second half of next year. However, the sustained reduction in agave prices will have a positive medium and long-term effect in our working capital requirements and cash flow as we have passed peak agave prices and hence, inventory value as well as a benefit to our long-term profitability and cash flow generation capabilities. Quarter-over-quarter N&P expenses increased by 22% to MXN 2.7 billion. As a percentage of net sales, A&P increased from 19.2% in the third quarter of 2022 to 25.5% in the same period of 2023.
This increase was primarily attributed to a decline in net sales and reflects the planned change in timing of AMP spend relative to the prior year period. However, on a year-to-date basis, A&P represented 22.9% of net sales in line with the company's full year guidance of 22% plus/minus 1%. Distribution expenses decreased by 18% to MXN 439 million compared to the third quarter driven by lower logistics and carrier costs. As a percentage of net sales, distribution expenses decreased from 4.6% in the third quarter of 2022 to 4.2% in the same period of 2023. SG&A expenses increased by 15% year-on-year, representing 10.1% of net sales compared to 8% in the third quarter of 2022. This post was [ pinarily ] attributed to a decline in net sales and inflationary pressures impacting the cost structure.
Operating income decreased by 66% for the quarter, while operating margin decreased from 22.5% in the third quarter of 2022 to 8.5% in the third quarter of this year. EBITDA for the third quarter decreased by 59% quarter-over-quarter to MXN 1.2 billion with an EBITDA margin of 11%. Net financial expenses for the quarter reached MXN 604 million compared to MXN 173 million in the previous year. This increase was mainly driven by a foreign exchange loss of MXN 396 million compared to a loss of MXN 14 million in the third quarter 2022. The Mexican pesos quarter-over-quarter depreciation negatively affected our net cash exposure in U.S. dollars.
Additionally, the company's interest expenses were higher in the same period of the previous year due to short-term financing incurred during the first 9 months of 2023. These effects were partially offset by higher interest income, driven by an increase in interest rates. Consolidated net income decreased by 88% to MXN 207 million with a net margin of 2% compared to 15% in the third quarter of 2022. Earnings per share for the quarter reached MXN 0.6 as of September 30, 2023, cash and cash equivalent were MXN 4 billion, and total debt was MXN 25 billion.
The combination of lower organic costs and the drawdown of raw materials and finished good inventory holds the broadness of a significant swing in free cash flow generation for the company. We saw a cash generation of $51 million in the quarter attributed to our ongoing inventory optimization efforts. Our reversal of previous cash consumption trends seen this balance sheet item. We expect to continue rightsizing inventories throughout 2023 and 2024 in conjunction with our reduced CapEx over the coming years.
This reduction in CapEx is particularly notable as our largest project, the 1800 distillery is nearing completion. Regarding our debt financing, the company has mandated 2 global banks as joint arrangers to refinance its USD 500 million short-term bank debt with a 5-year tenure bullet syndicated facility in 2 tranches: term and revolving. The company expects to be able to negotiate and close such refinancing before the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. This refinancing will support the company's effort to access capital on a long-term basis at competitive rates and extend its maturity profile.
Our net leverage reached 2.9x in the 12 months ended September 2023. We consider we have a capital structure that has been improved in the last year and is now closer to industry peers. However, we are cautious on going substantially above 3x and believe the current leverage level is the peak for the year and should not increase by the year-end and should lower by next year. In line with the company's allocation in line with the company's capital allocation program outlined during the Annual General ordinary shareholders' meeting held on April 28, 2023, a cash dividend of for each outstanding share representing Becle's Capital stock was distributed on August 3.
Regarding guidance, we reaffirm our expectations for high single-digit consolidated revenue growth on a constant currency basis for the full year. Additionally, we expect full year CapEx to be in the lower part of the range of USD 200 million to USD 225 million. I will now turn the call back over to the operator for a question-and-answer session.
[Operator Instructions] First question comes from Mr. Fernando Olvera from Bank of America.
The first one is, if you can give us an idea of what was the impact of Boost this quarter? And also, can you elaborate more on the change of volume trends in Mexico and rest of the world? And what is your outlook for next quarter and more importantly, 2024. And just a quick one. Last week, I saw the press the [ Proximus ] periods acquired a distributor in Spain. Can you comment on that? What was the rationale and what is your expectation, how relevant it is that acquisition?
About the first subject. The first impact was in the back of the distribution shift of our boost band, we had a third distributor we lost 37 cases from [indiscernible] to internal distribution. We also have some changes in the packaging regulations, which impacted the brand performance, this Mexican regulation. And so excluding those volumes, we would have fallen 16.3% in the quarter.
And regarding your second question on Spain, the company already had a majority stake in a distributor in Spain. And during the third quarter, we completed the rest of the equity stake in Spain. That's regarding proximal Spain.
And how relevant is that acquisition, Fernando? I mean does it monitor.
This is Gordon. So just to say it's an important acquisition for us because it's because 1 of our end market companies. So clearly, Spain is an important tequila market for us. And therefore, that is why we have been seeking our own control of route to market in Spain.
Great. And regarding the trends on volume that we observed this quarter in Mexico and rest of the World, can you elaborate more on that given the weakness that we saw this quarter?
Yes. So Mexico, as we previously cautioned in the second quarter conference call, we saw contraction in the market, which is affecting all categories and causing a slight down trading within the industry Also high inflation on security issues are impacting the implant channel. But within this contraction, we are outperforming our peers in the market.
Regarding the EMEA APAC region, the -- actually the decline or the slowdown in sales in the third quarter was anticipated. It was around normalizing stocks. When we look at depletions, actually, we see a strong growth of 8.9% in over the period of the third quarter. So actually, yes, the business is still performing quite strongly. It's just a change in the shipment to shedding.
Our next question comes from Mr. Ricardo Alves from Morgan Stanley.
On your gross margin, can you go into more details about the main drivers? We struggle to understand the sequential deterioration -- so the 300 -- 270, 300 basis points of deterioration versus the second quarter, we understand the Mexican peso volatility. But in our view, that was -- it was a little bit stronger sequentially speaking, but not that much. And at the same time, sequentially speaking, your mix of region improved with the U.S. Recovering mix of product is also improving. So is there something else that we are not seeing on the other cost lines that we maybe will lack visibility. Just for us to understand the sequential deterioration.
My second question on the commentary that you made on Agave. Fernando, I appreciate the forward-looking comments. But just to make sure we understood correctly, the company expects a better result or better margins flowing on the basis of agave in the second half of next year. If that's the case -- so first of all, I just wanted to make sure I understood that correctly. But then the second part of that question would be why it shouldn't be earlier? I thought that market prices of agave started to go down maybe by mid-2023.
I would assume that based on the majority of your portfolio. Mainstream tequila maybe that would flow a little bit earlier. So maybe if you could elaborate on the ma that the company is doing to anticipate a second half impact. And a final follow-up on Rest of the World, just to understand. So it really seems that it was a September issue. Is that the reading of Europe, meaning that July, August were strong based on our conversations but in September, there was a correction. And then maybe now October, we're seeing more normalized, many strong numbers for the rest of the world. So this 1 is more of a clarification. Sorry for the long question.
Yes, Ricardo, as to your first question on gross margin, not only sequential but year-on-year erosion. We attribute the year-on-year 60 basis points gross margin erosion to FX on 400 basis points on that. And the remainder of the margin erosion has to do primarily with dry goods inflation in certain instances, even double-digit dry goods inflation compared to last year. Now in mind that we're still coming out of the supply chain crisis in which we had substantial cost pressure on dry goods. As to your second question on agave, yes, we did state that we expect better margins, not until the second half of next year because we still have inventory that needs to flow through the balance sheet and not only in terms of bulk, but also in terms of finished goods.
Not until then, we expect to see any material improvements on agave costs in the P&L. Agave, as you know, just started to go down very recently. We, in particular, have not been buying Agave. We have not been participating in the agave market for the last 3 months. But we understand that the price is going down. Regarding your third question on raw and EMEA, Gordon, if you want to take that?
Yes, sure. So in terms of September, there is no impact in Asia Pacific. That continues to grow very strongly. Within the EMEA region, it would be fair to say, yes, the end of the summer period, when consumers went home after the summer, there was a slowdown in September. In terms of how it will pan out for the rest of the year, it's clearly too early to say. But we would certainly hope there would be some improvement after a short of September.
Next question comes from Mr. Alan Alanis from Banco Santander.
I want to go back to the volumes in Mexico, the 16% decline and I understand a little bit better what's driving that. And the context of the question has to do with mean we just saw yesterday the soft drink, the Coca-Cola bottlers yesterday and today, report volume is growing up in Mexico between 8% and 10% we saw the Starbucks results also growing very strongly, double digits. It seems that the dynamics of consumption of alcohol, if that's the case, are different than the rest of the consumer products. Could you help us explain a little bit more what's happening on the ground CS16 a 16% decline in volumes in tequila in Mexico year-over-year, please?
Well, there are 2 different industries, for sure. We are seeing slightly less confident consumer versus pre-pandemic, which is causing some deceleration within the ultra-premium segments as well as like [indiscernible] the on-premise to off-premise. So I would say there are 2 different industries, and we are seeing a contraction across the board in industry so it's too soon to say how the year will end. But we believe this is a contraction also because we had very high comps from last year.
Sure. And if I -- just a quick follow-up. How do you expect -- and maybe it's more for Fernando, how do you expect SG&A to evolve in the next -- in the coming quarters?
Yes. If you look at SG&A in the third quarter as a percentage of sales, we look a little bit SG&A heavy. But bear in mind that because of the ratio because of softer numerator that makes us look SG&A heavy for the quarter. However, for the full year, we normally print a single-digit SG&A. So that should normalize as we go forward.
Our next question comes from Ulises Argote Bolio from JPMorgan.
Just a follow-up there for Fernando. My line kind of broke up a little bit when you were talking about that gross margin pressure and the impact that you saw on that from FX. So I just wanted to clarify that number. That 400 basis points coming from that expression?
That is correct, Ulises. We attribute 400 basis points of the margin erosion year-on-year. on gross margin to the FX impact alone.
Our next question comes from Mr. Ryan Levin from Barclays.
So a bit more on the SG&A evolution and especially in the quarter, can you talk about it in Mexican peso terms because obviously, a huge part of it is in USD or other foreign currencies, and there was a big FX impact on the quarter.
Again, on SG&A, if you look at it on a quarter stand-alone basis, we do look at G&A heavy. But on a year-to-date basis, that figure is much more aligned to our historical trends in terms of SG&A -- that SG&A level, if you compare it to industry peers is also very competitive. So nothing material to report on SG&A. Yes, we do have inflationary pressures on SG&A, like everybody else. But other than that, SG&A is not necessarily a concern for us right now.
Okay. Sounds good. I'll pass it on.
Next question is from Juan Jose Guzman from Scotiabank.
Most of my questions have already been answered. So I have a quick follow-up here regarding Mexico. What is your outlook for the next quarters in this region? And what's the ongoing status of this distribution setback? And how long will it continue hitting your volumes? And additionally, have you considered it will be necessary to do a brand impairment of boost in the near future or by year-end? That will be it.
Well, as for the outlook for the future in Mexico. I like to comment, we had 2 challenging months July and August, but we did have a positive September with increasing depletions, still saying that it's hard to predict at this moment so we have to continue to monitor our overall brand portfolio and the market contraction very closely.
We have a very broad portfolio with different price points, which allow us to be very competitive and catch the consumer as they trade down. In terms of the Boost brand, we see things normalizing for the last quarter. We've passed the regulation issues, and so we think we're going to have a better quarter.
Just let me add on to Olga in terms of boost brand impairment, those is not subject to brand impairment test because it's a brand that was developed and generated in-house. It doesn't require a brand impairment test under the accounting standards.
[Operator Instructions] Okay. It looks like we have no further questions at this point. Thank you very much for your time. We'll now be closing all the lines. Thank you, and goodbye.