Becle SAB de CV
BMV:CUERVO

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BMV:CUERVO
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Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2020-Q3

from 0
Operator

Good morning, and thank you for joining Becle's Third Quarter Unaudited Financial Results Call. During this call, you may hear certain forward-looking statements. These statements may relate to our future prospects, developments and business strategies and may be identified by our use of terms and phrases such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, predict, project, will, goals, target, strategy and similar terms and phrases and may include references to assumptions.

Forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions regarding our business, the economy and our future conditions. Because forward-looking statements relate to the future by their nature, they are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Our actual results may differ materially from those in forward-looking statements.

For all the foregoing reasons, you are cautioned against relying on such forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Now I'll welcome Mariana Rojo, Corporate Treasurer and Investor Relations Director.

M
Mariana Rojo Granados
executive

Good morning, everyone. I'm Mariana Rojo, Corporate Treasurer and Investor Relations Director. Thank you for joining us to discuss the unaudited financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2020, of Becle, commercially known as Jose Cuervo. I am joined today by Mr. Juan Domingo Beckmann, Chief Executive Officer; Michael Keyes, President and CEO of Proximo Spirits; Steve Shanley, Senior VP of Commercial Strategy for Proximo; Luis Félix, Managing Director of Mexico and LATAM; Gordon Dron, Managing Director of EMEA and APAC regions; and Fernando Suárez, CFO.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that the figures discussed on this call were prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards or IFRS and published in the Mexican Stock Exchange. The information for the third quarter of 2020 is preliminary and is provided with the understanding that once financial statements are available, updated information will be shared in the appropriate electronic forms.

[Operator Instructions]

Now I will pass the call on to Mr. Juan Domingo Beckmann.

J
Juan Legorreta
executive

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Becle's third quarter results. All of us at Becle sincerely hope that each and every one of you continue to remain safe and healthy, and we hope you're all successfully adapting to today's challenging times.

I will begin with the opening comments, and then I will ask Mike Keyes to discuss performance of our U.S. and Canada business units. Luis Félix will review our Mexican and LATAM results. Gordon Dron will discuss our performance in the EMEA and APAC regions, and Fernando Suárez will then walk you through our financial results.

The global environment continues with ongoing challenges as a result of COVID-19, but I am very pleased with our organization's response and agile adaptation to the current operating and business environment. Our team has worked diligently to execute our plan and adapt to the continually changing market.

During the third quarter, Becle continued to effectively navigate the challenges related to the market dynamics. In the U.S., our positioning in growing categories and over-indexing to the off-premise channel has helped us absorb the effects from the pandemic and illustrates the strength of our brands. Across our regions, we are delivering to consumers the highest-quality spirits and providing off-premise solutions that are well adapted to the current global situation.

We reported a very solid third quarter performance, driven by continued strong results in the U.S. and Canada, which delivered robust volumes and sales growth. Our favorable positioning and leadership in the rapidly growing tequila and ready-to-drink categories has placed the company well in the current environment. We are seeing significant growth coming from these categories.

Additionally, while the ongoing difficulties with on-premise sales remain, we are seeing improving trends in Mexico and rest of the world. On-premise sales will remain challenged. However, we are well positioned and have adapted quickly and successfully given the current environment.

We have also focused on managing costs and expenses, contributing to margin expansion. We generated significant growth in EBITDA and consolidated net income during the third quarter, reflecting both strong sales performance and a firm cost control. We generated gross margin improvement during the third quarter, reflecting the strong volume growth in the U.S. and Canada.

Our performance will continue to reflect the current operating environment, which will be difficult to forecast as the pandemic has affected many regions of our global footprint. However, we have faith in our plans and ability to respond to the rapidly changing conditions.

We have built a powerful portfolio of brands focused on high-growth spirits categories paired to our global distribution network. We remain highly confident in our ability to maintain long-term growth and continue to drive shareholder value.

Before moving on to our U.S. and Canada results, let me just comment that on behalf of Becle's Board of Directors, we would like to thank Mike Cheek for his many years of service as a member of the Board, who has decided to retire. Mike, we wish you all the best in your retirement and new endeavors.

Now I'll turn the call over to Mike Keyes to take you through the U.S. and Canada results.

M
Michael Keyes
executive

Good morning, everyone. We're pleased with our commercial performance in the United States and Canada during the third quarter of 2020. Consumer takeaway in the off-premise for our brands in the United States, as measured by Nielsen data, grew over the past 3 months by 32%, outpacing the industry, which showed growth of 22% in the off-premise channel for the 13 weeks ended October 3.

Proximo's wholesaler depletions were up 22% for the quarter, but we were adversely impacted by production constraints on Jose Cuervo alcohol-free margarita mix. Our tequila portfolio was up 35%, driven equally by the continued strength in our super premium tequilas and the increased velocity of Jose Cuervo Especial.

Our ready-to-drink margarita category performance was very strong in the third quarter, with depletions up 42%. Our whiskey portfolio grew 19% during the quarter with our Irish and domestic whiskey brands depletions growing double digits.

The quarter was driven by exceptionally strong off-premise business, resulting from the change in consumer behavior in the on-premise channel due to the coronavirus. Proximo's portfolio of brands line up well with the continuation of the consumer trend towards convenient cocktail alternatives for at-home consumption. Proximo's strength in the ready-to-drink margarita category and strong position as America's #1 tequila company were the primary drivers of the increases in depletion growth during the third quarter.

Production constraints caused a decline in our alcohol-free margarita mix depletions of 48%, which negatively impacted the volume figures for the quarter. Depletions for the rest of the portfolio were up 33% for the quarter.

Strong consumer takeaway and underlying depletion growth during the quarter continued to drive solid shipment trends. We recognized a 51% growth in shipments for the quarter compared to the prior year.

Our net sales grew 79% due to a favorable exchange rate conversion and higher average selling prices during the quarter. We continue to monitor the shift in consumption patterns and adapt to this changing business environment.

We've now caught up with the demand for our ready-to-drink products, and we're producing Cuervo alcohol-free margarita mix again.

I will now turn the call over to Luis FĂ©lix to discuss Mexico and the Latin America results.

L
Luis Felix
executive

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. The third quarter continued to have challenges with on-premise and wholesaler sales in Mexico due to COVID-19. However, as we discussed last quarter, we have begun to see more positive trends as our volume declines moderated down to single digits.

While the economic situation remains a challenge, many of the limitations on the spirit sales have been lifted across Mexico. Volume declined 5.3% during the quarter, with net sales declining 3.9% in the Mexico region, representing a material improvement from the second quarter.

On-premise locations in Mexico remains largely closed and/or restricted, which continues to have an impact on sales. Furthermore, the economic situation has led to a mix shift towards more affordable brands, which has negatively impacted our tequila mix.

The environment is challenging across the spirits category. And while volumes were unfavorable on a year-over-year basis, we continue to gain share in both tequila and the spirits category.

We are now relaunching the Azul brand, a lower-priced tequila offering that we sold last fall. Additionally, we executed some AMP and operating expense rephasings and reductions during the quarter that have positively impacted margins, and we'll continue to quickly adapt to the market environment.

In Latin America, we continue to face challenges. Volume was down 39% versus the prior year as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, with depletions down 18%. While an improvement from the second quarter, several markets continue to be challenged by both the pandemic and the economic situation with related currency devaluation impact in Latin America.

There have been improving trends in selected markets. However, the challenges in other countries are offsetting the improving trends.

I will now turn the call over to Gordon Dron to discuss our EMEA and APAC results.

G
Gordon Dron
executive

Many thanks, Luis FĂ©lix, and good afternoon from Europe. Business performance continues to be impacted by key -- in key markets by COVID-19. The issue exists across pockets of markets in EMEA and APAC through Q3.

Despite this, sales volume across EMEA and APAC region were up by 4% for the third quarter, while net sales performed even more strongly with 22% growth, driven by a favorable exchange rate, a strong recovery of our non-tequila spirits portfolio predominantly in EMEA and through the off-trade and product innovations.

Sales performance on tequila has slowed in the third quarter, notably in APAC region, where sales have declined versus the previous year, derived from the on-trade closures in key APAC tequila markets, which have impacted depletions, and hence, reorders have been much slower.

In EMEA, due to more off-trade sales and some reopening of on-trade across Southern Europe, business was less impacted. The continuing difficulties in the GTR channel have also affected the region.

Restructuring of AMP investments continues to be a priority, focusing investments into areas of greatest opportunity. E-commerce channel continues to boom.

The outlook remains uncertain with ongoing spikes in both Europe and Asia. We will continue to focus on cost management and ensuring the business is fit for recovery when that arrives.

I will now turn over the call to Fernando Suárez to review the financial results.

F
Fernando Gerard
executive

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Let me walk you through the third quarter financial results.

During the third quarter, the company reported a 48.3% increase in consolidated net sales to MXN 10.4 billion. During the third quarter, gross profit increased 52.9% year-over-year to MXN 5.8 billion, and gross margin improved to 55.3% from 53.6% for the third quarter of 2019, reflecting a favorable region mix.

Cost of goods sold for the same period increased 42.9%, primarily benefited from the Mexican peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar on a year-over-year basis. AMP expenses decreased 4.2% to MXN 1.5 billion when compared to the third quarter of 2019. This AMP expense decrease reflects the phasing of AMP investment opportunities across our regions due to COVID-19 restrictions and delays in media and sponsorship opportunities. As a percentage of net sales, AMP decreased to 14.7% from 22.8% in the same prior year period.

In the third quarter of the year, distribution expenses increased 56.1% to MXN 379 million, mainly driven by an acceleration in sales. As a percentage of sales, distribution expenses slightly increased to 3.6% from 3.5% in the third quarter of 2019.

SG&A expenses increased 12.2% during the third quarter, representing 7.8% of net sales compared to 10.4% in the third quarter of 2019, with margin improvement primarily driven by firm cost control and supported by an acceleration in sales.

Operating income for the third quarter of 2020 increased 169.2% as the operating margin increased to 29.4% from 16.2% in the third quarter of 2019, an improvement of 13.2 percentage points.

Third quarter EBITDA increased 150.1% year-over-year to MXN 3.2 billion, while EBITDA margin was 31.2% versus 18.5% in the same period of last year, an improvement of 12.7 percentage points.

Net financial results were a loss of MXN 247 million during the third quarter as a result of our exposure to the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and the Mexican peso. As of January 1, 2020, the company has designated its $500 million senior notes as a hedge against its net investments in its U.S. operations. The specific amount that resulted from the first quarter's announced IFRS 9, IFRIC 16 accounting criteria adoption was MXN 257 million in OCI for the third quarter.

Third quarter consolidated net income increased by 186.4% to MXN 2.1 billion, and the net margin increased to 20.0% compared to 10.4% in the prior year period, an improvement of 9.6 percentage points.

Earnings per share were MXN 0.58 for the third quarter. During the first 9 months of 2020, the company generated net cash from operating activities of MXN 1.9 billion. As of September 30, cash and cash equivalents were MXN 7.8 billion, and total long-term debt was MXN 11.3 billion. We continue to maintain a solid balance sheet with conservative financial leverage, comfortable debt maturity profile and liquidity to execute our long-term growth strategy.

Regarding our CapEx program, as stated in previous calls, we will maintain our strategic expansion projects, the most significant of which are our 1800 distillery in tequila and the OBD expansion in Northern Ireland.

We estimate CapEx for 2020 full year to be around $200 million. Given the uncertainty regarding the business outlook, we are not providing fourth quarter and hence, full year volume growth guidance at this stage.

Lastly, we would like to note that 2 shareholders' meetings have been summoned for November 3, in which, among other corporate matters, a new Secretary of the Board will be appointed.

Now we will turn the call back to the operator for questions and answers.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Ricardo Alves with Morgan Stanley.

R
Ricardo Alves
analyst

Impressive numbers again. I had a question on the gross margin evolution. I mean the contribution for Mexico increased versus the second quarter, which negatively impacts profitability, typically, but your gross margins still expanded more than 200 basis points sequentially. We suspect that this is driven by the mix improvement, lower mixers, but maybe could also be mix improvement in terms of value brands in Mexico. So I would appreciate if you could elaborate on that, what's really driving the gross margin sequential improvement. Maybe if there's any relevant comment to be made on agave as well, that would be helpful, my first question on gross margin.

F
Fernando Gerard
executive

Thank you for the questions, Ricardo. Regarding gross margins, on one side, yes, we did see a net tax conversion benefiting the margins. But in addition to that, also, the mix within the U.S. was benefited, derived from the slow run in margarita mix that we referenced during our scripted remarks and the sustained growth from the rest of the -- of our portfolio beginning in the second quarter.

Moving on to your agave question. It's too early to tell if we see a continuation of agave price stabilization. We're basically in the same position than when we commented earlier in the year. And again, it's too early to determine a change in trend at this stage and, hence, a material effect in our gross margins.

R
Ricardo Alves
analyst

If I may, it's kind of a related question, but more specifically into the U.S. operation. The 50% green, remarkable. But I would like to insist a little bit more on the mix side. Maybe if you could talk about the mix performance in the U.S., but maybe taking into account the brand performance, that would be helpful. We've been seeing Jose Cuervo, for example, grabbing market share in the U.S. So if you could just update us on the competitive landscape in the U.S. particularly, that would be helpful.

M
Michael Keyes
executive

This is Mike Keyes. Is the question specific to our scripted remarks about non-alcohol margarita mix?

R
Ricardo Alves
analyst

I mean if you could provide some color on that, that would be helpful, mike. I mean in terms of if it's more Jose Cuervo, the 1800 margaritas, I mean, that's helpful as well. But I was actually more interested on the mainstream category of tequila.

M
Michael Keyes
executive

Yes. So at the 50,000 foot level, we've seen excellent results in our tequila portfolio, including Jose Cuervo, including our ready-to-drinks and certainly including all of our brands, and 1800 has done exceptionally well over the last few quarters.

With regard to our margarita mix, we, like many companies in the world, were hit with unexpected boost in demand. And so due to that acceleration in demand, we did experience some constraints on production for a while. And so we made the decision to first prioritize our most profitable brands and our most profitable SKUs.

And so we're getting through that. We basically are through it. We're coming back into balance. We're fully stocked now, and we're producing additional flavors of our RTDs as well as we're back-producing Cuervo non-alcohol margarita mix. But there was a period of time where we just had that we had extra shifts. We did everything we could, but demand was just outpacing our ability to supply.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ben Theurer with Barclays.

B
Benjamin Theurer
analyst

As well from my side, congratulations on those outstanding results. Just wanted to follow up a little bit on the commentary you just had about the dynamics and maybe a little bit on the market share side. So I guess it's a question for Mike. So if we look at Nielsen data, NABCA data, I mean, clearly, there's very strong take-up of your brands. And you've just said Jose Cuervo continues -- was doing as well very well together with 1800.

I know you're not providing a volume outlook but -- on a consolidated basis, but if you could tell us a little bit in terms of your expectations, what you're seeing in like early indications. Being almost one month into -- 3 weeks into the quarter, what is your demand outlook towards the Christmas season? And how do you think shipment and demand is going to turn out in the U.S. and specifically over the next coming weeks?

M
Michael Keyes
executive

Yes, thank you for the question. It's an excellent question. It's one that's very difficult for us, and I'm sure for everybody else to get a handle on because it's so driven by the state of the world with regard to COVID-19 and the pandemic.

I would say, as of right now, as we all would wish that the pressures from the pandemic would ease, they don't seem to be easing, and I don't know that we or anybody else has a really good feel for when that would happen. As of right now, I think we're planning, at least for the foreseeable future, for similar trends with regard to the on and the off-premise. We're very, very well situated.

And I also like to remind people because the industry -- and we have not seen numbers like this, and these are not numbers that are likely sustainable beyond the pandemic, but I do like to remind people that our success isn't specifically pandemic-driven in the sense that we were outperforming competition pre-pandemic as well. And so we had the same kind of overperformance. It's just that the industry numbers have grown dramatically.

B
Benjamin Theurer
analyst

Okay. That's helpful commentary. Now if we just look into the mix shift and a little bit into the dynamics and just to understand what happened within the U.S. on the average price, if you could elaborate a little bit because there was a significant uptick of the level compared to the second quarter, at least what we can see in peso terms. But actually, FX was a headwind. Had that to do with the fact that you had those volume constraints on the non-alcoholic RTD, which has a lower price point? Or what's been driving that sequential uptick on the price?

M
Michael Keyes
executive

Yes, I think it's a combination of things. I think that the biggest change would have been demand outpacing supply and us prioritizing our most profitable SKUs and brands.

But also, we have -- as we've told you all along, we have taken measured price increases in markets around the United States where we have felt that our brands were not priced to the equity of the brands. So it's a combination of measured, targeted surgical price increases, and certainly demand outpacing supply and having to make very, I think, smart allocations as to who we were going to produce and why we were going to produce those brands.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

A
Andrea Teixeira
analyst

Congrats on the results. Mike, what was the exit rate for depletions in September in the U.S.? I understand you don't want to tell us the performance in October, but just to give us a sense. The reason why I ask is that there was some deceleration in consumer takeaway in Nielsen as of late. And do you -- and realistically, how should we be thinking and how is the company thinking about growth in 2021 as you cycle this amazing year, this year of exceptional growth?

M
Michael Keyes
executive

Yes. Again, I don't know that I'm any more equipped to -- I don't have a crystal ball that you don't have or anybody else doesn't have. I would say, through a Nielsen lens, it's been a very bumpy world with regard to the on-premise. And Nielsen has certainly reaped the benefit of off-premise consumption and actually large retail presence and large size presence up to this point.

I would -- the only thing I would say is right now, I don't see yet a light at the end of the tunnel with regard to the pandemic. There's always positive news with regard to therapeutics and with regard to the potential for vaccines. But we don't see anything that really shows us or tells us when we can expect the consumer behavior of off-premise consumption, at-home consumption, at-home cocktails actually changing. And so I assume, for the short-term, that those consumer behaviors are going to stay the same. And I don't -- again, I don't know what the short term is any more than anybody else on the call. But certainly, for the short to mid foreseeable future, I personally don't see any major changes or shifts.

A
Andrea Teixeira
analyst

Yes, that's helpful. And then on the AMP, as you really -- like what is the phasing? You think eventually, by the same token, you may not need to return to the low 20s over time or you aim to return and reinvest a bit of that investment back in the brands?

M
Michael Keyes
executive

Well, I would say that we have not, not spent money purposely. The pandemic had actually closed some opportunities to us for a period of time. Many of those opportunities are and have continued to reopen. Our company has always been probably one of the largest supporters of brand expense and driving our brand equity. And we will continue to do that in the fourth quarter to the level that we can efficiently buy things that are opening up that make sense for our brands. We're having a very good year, and we would like to continue that. And we'd like to set our brands up for as much as we can for a very positive 2021 as well.

F
Fernando Gerard
executive

Let me add on to Mike's comment, Andrea. At the consolidated level, we are expecting to reach 20% -- in the 20% area, AMP as a percentage of net sales. So we do expect, as Mike elaborated, to try to ramp up AMP in the fourth quarter as we observe opportunities to try to catch up in this sense.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Fernando Olvera with Bank of America.

F
Fernando Olvera Espinosa de los Monteros
analyst

I also hope that you and your families are fine. The first one is related to Mexico. Can you comment what explains the solid price mix during the quarter? And what would be your pricing strategy ahead? And the second one is related to -- I mean, to your CapEx. Given the solid volume growth that we have seen, mainly in the U.S., I mean, how are you thinking about your CapEx for next year?

L
Luis Felix
executive

Thank you, Fernando. I'll take the first question on the sales mix in Mexico. Yes, in the quarter, we have a better sales mix, and the average sales per case was improving. The reason for that is that Boost had a decline higher than -- let's say, Boost and all the non-alcoholic drinks have, let's say, an underperformance higher than our tequila business. So that change in the mix helped us because our tequila business is more profitable than the non-alcoholic drinks.

F
Fernando Gerard
executive

And as to your second question, Fernando, regarding CapEx, as stated in the scripted remarks, we expect to close this year in around $200 million of CapEx. We still have a carryover of our main projects into 2021 in terms of CapEx. But that figure should be south of the $200 million. We're still working through the specifics, and in due course, we'll post you with some CapEx guidance for next year.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Marcella Recchia with Crédit Suisse.

M
Marcella Recchia Focaccia
analyst

Congrats about the results. Quick questions on U.S. tequila. Basically, just to have a sense on your view, what's driving such acceleration, if it is new consumers and occasions or greater frequency of consumption with existing consumers? And how big can the category become in your view?

The second question, if I may, is if you have any perception that is there any U.S. tequila players going out of business given the COVID pandemic.

M
Michael Keyes
executive

Yes. I'll start, and Steve Shanley, if you have additional commentary, please feel free to chime in. To start from your last question, I don't know of anyone having those issues. But that being said, I know that some of the smaller, what we would call -- I think it's a misnomer, but what we would call craft distilleries in general are having a really, really difficult time. And that is due to the fact, as we've said on past calls, that consumers tend to be, during the pandemic, buying more than their shopping. And the current environment favors large brands, well-known brands in large sizes, which makes it hard for small brands to cut through.

With regard to tequila, how big can tequila get? I think there's still plenty of runway. If we look at the other categories that have seen this growth historically, vodka or whiskey, there's still plenty of runway. And I think tequila benefits from a couple of different things. Some of it pandemic-related and some of it just consumer preference-related.

And one would be I think that consumers have really gotten behind 2 things. One is they've gotten behind margaritas. And with the on-premise closed predominantly, they have the ability to easily make those cocktails in a convenient way at home, and we and others provide them the opportunity to do that in a very easy way.

The second thing I would say is that tequila has gotten a reputation as a healthy alcohol choice and a crafted alcohol choice. And it's really -- people are looking at tequila much the way they looked at high-end whiskey years ago. And I just think tequila, people are understanding just the specialness and the craft that goes into making these fine brands. Steve, I don't know if you have anything else to add.

S
Steve Shanley
executive

Yes. The only thing I would add is that when you're looking at Nielsen, to Mike's point, I think the off-premise is represented there and not the off and on-premise. So when you look at NABCA, the growth of tequila is more muted. If you look back at last year's NABCA, you can see that tequila was probably growing in the low single digits. And now tequila is growing maybe 17% or 18%, depending on which period you look at.

So it has grown, and I think for all the points that Mike made, just as an alternative or a spirit. But be careful just looking at Nielsen because the shift from on-premise to off-premise is definitely helping some of those ratios.

M
Marcella Recchia Focaccia
analyst

Okay, that's very clear. And if I may do just a quick follow-up, just to hear from you your first results about the launch of tequila into the hard seltzer segment in the U.S.

M
Michael Keyes
executive

Yes. So we have introduced the product Playamar into a few states in the United States, and we're having great success with it. It's a brand that we believe has a very nice opportunity for us.

We are a little constrained in supply, to be honest, at this point, and it's mainly the ability to get cans right now because we're not the only ones showing that kind of success. And so it's hard to get can time. We've got can time allocated for the future, but it's very difficult in the present.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Felipe Ucros with Scotiabank.

F
Felipe Ucros Nunez
analyst

Congrats on the results. Let me start with a question about how tequila demand has surged and what implications it can have for inputs. I think we're nearing the fourth year since Cuervo withdrew the vertical integration guidance. So one can only assume that a lot of agave will enter the market in 2021. How does that match up with this increase in industry volumes? If, for example, we have this level of tequila consumption in the U.S. for 1 or 2 more quarters, do you feel -- I mean, I know you can't -- you don't want to give a lot of indication about numbers, but do you feel the industry is prepared with enough agave to sustain this type of growth?

J
Juan Legorreta
executive

Felipe, thank you for the question. What we can say on the supply side, I think we've commented already on the demand side. But on the supply side is we are stepping up our plantation efforts on a sustained basis for the past few years. And in that sense, we expect for a larger amount of supply to come and to hit the market in the coming years.

How will that exactly match up with demand? Obviously, it's very hard to tell and to predict. But at least qualitatively, what we can tell you is we are stepping up the demand -- I'm sorry, the plantation and hence, supply in an important way. That's what we would care to comment at this stage.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

A
Andrea Teixeira
analyst

Just wanted to clarify. Fernando, you said bringing AMP back to 20%. I think your comment was related to the fourth quarter or is that going to make all year end up being 20%?

And then if I can follow up on one thing that, Mike, I think we all appreciate your expertise and your view. And I know it's hard to have conviction either way. But I was just hoping to see if you've heard, and maybe Steve can also chime in, you've heard from your customers, like the retailers or -- that are more close to what's happening to the consumer. If you've heard that the stimulus checks had helped and may explain some of the shift or this is what we've heard for a couple of companies in the CPG space in the U.S., if you've seen that being a factor as well?

M
Michael Keyes
executive

Andrea, I'm sorry, I didn't catch -- lost a word there. What specifically are you asking, if what has helped?

A
Andrea Teixeira
analyst

Sorry, the stimulus checks in the U.S., yes. If that had helped.

M
Michael Keyes
executive

Yes. Well, I'm sure it did help. I mean anytime consumers -- that many consumers have more money and the ability to spend more money, in particular, in this environment that we're in, where they're looking for escape and an ability to relax and socialize, at least safely in -- hopefully, safely with social distancing. But it surely helps. And we're going to have to wait and see what the government does here, either pre or post-election with regard to additional stimulus, but I definitely think it helps. I don't think it's going to make an incredible difference in trends or numbers at this point, but I think it's helpful. Steve, I don't know if you have anything else.

S
Steve Shanley
executive

No, I think I've read some stats about how it helped initially. But since August, the spending -- or at least total consumer spending of those people who were unemployed has come down considerably. Yet, we really haven't seen any changes in the trends of spirits related to that as of yet.

F
Fernando Gerard
executive

Andrea, as to your AMP question, the intention is to have around 20% AMP as a percentage of NSV for the full year. So that would imply -- on a consolidated basis for the total company, that would imply a 200 percentage in the fourth quarter. This is, of course, contingent upon the opportunities and venues on a year-to-go basis that we managed to deploy this AMP.

Operator

At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Juan Domingo for closing comments.

J
Juan Legorreta
executive

I would like to thank you again for your continued interest in Becle. We remain confident in our history and the strength of our brands. We hope you stay safe and well. Have a good day.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.