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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Banco del Bajío's Second Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. My name is Emma, and I will be your coordinator today. [Operator Instructions]
Before we begin the call today, I would like to remind you that forward-looking statements made during today's conference call do not account for future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Joining us today from Banco del Bajío is Mr. Carlos de la Cerda, Executive Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors; Mr. Edgardo del Rincón, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Joaquín Domínguez, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Luis Quiroz, Investor Relations Officer.
As a reminder, this video conference is being recorded. For opening remarks and introductions, I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Luis Quiroz. Mr. Quiroz, you may begin.
Good morning to everyone, and welcome to Banco del Bajío's Conference Call for the Second Quarter of 2021. We are happy to announce the results we have achieved so far for the year as well as introducing our revised guidance for 2021 as a result of the good trends we are seeing in the drivers that we are going to present later on. It has been a whole year since the second quarter of 2020 when we announced the measures to prepare the bank for the COVID crisis, giving priority to the asset quality and the business continuity. Now we remember cautious with the evolution of the current conditions. However, we are upgrading profitability as part of our top priorities. As such, we are implementing some strategies to collect the low-hanging fruit opportunities and improve the profitability profile of the bank in short term.
I would like to start the presentation on Slide 3 by briefly commenting on some key ratios recorded in the quarter compared to those of the system as of May, which is the most recent publicly available information. On the asset quality side, we posted an NPL ratio of 1.10%, below the 2.52% recorded for the system.
Furthermore, our NPL adjusted ratio was 1.78%, also well below the 5.14% recorded for the system. In terms of growth, we maintain our target of outpacing the industry, growing the loan portfolio by 7.06% and the deposits by 14.15%, while the system decreased by 7.09% and 0.21%, respectively. Our capitalization ratio on a preliminary basis as of June was 17.54%, which was almost completely comprised of Tier 1 capital. Net income for the quarter stood at MXN 1.07 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.8% as most of our key indicators have been stronger than originally projected. The quarterly ROAE was 12%.
In Slide 4, we highlight some of the achievements we have made on the quarter towards BanBajio 25 strategy, which is focused on the digital transformation as well as strengthening the consumer and SME side of the bank. On the digital front, we are growing the monthly active users of our digital platforms by 51%. This quarter, we saw the number of digital transactions from clients that are individuals growing at 83%, while the total of the bank is 40%. The growth of individuals is much higher, given that we have already transitioned these clients to the new digital platforms. We expect this trend to continue as we migrate businesses to Bajionet. On the consumer and SME banking side, we started to originate credit cards and payroll loans with the parametric algorithms. Recall that Banco de Bajio signed an agreement with [ FERIZAC ] on the first quarter of last year, to provide us with the strategic and operating intelligence for these new products.
Later this year, we'll include personal loans in the third quarter, SMEs and mortgages by year-end. The consumer business for Banco del Bajio is an idiosyncratic growth story with understanding asset quality. Consumer loans are growing at 17.1%, outperforming the system by a large margin as a consequence of the cross-sell strategies, which account for 59% of the consumer loans originated at the bank. On Slide 5, our total loan portfolio reached MXN 197.3 billion, an increase of 7.1% compared to the second quarter of 2020. We have observed a sluggish demand for credit and prepayments from large businesses, which have impacted the whole industry. However, we have managed to focus the growth year-to-date on those segments we like the most, such as medium enterprises, agro business and consumer loans, which in turn will help us improve the yield mix of our portfolio.
We expect the demand for credit to pick up in the second half of the year, given our footprint with large weight in the Bajio and North region as well as our specialization in industries that are largely driven by the USMCA, such as agro business and manufacturing.
Total deposits reached MXN 186.8 billion, an increase of 14.1% compared to the second quarter of 2020. We would like to highlight the performance of demand deposits throughout the year at 34.2% and the prepayment of our bought issuance in June. We have taken on a strategy to improve the cost of funding, which we are going to discuss later on this presentation.
Moving on to Slide 6. We would like to highlight Banco del Bajio's outstanding asset quality. As you can see on the upper chart, the NPL and the NPL adjusted stood at the end of June at 1.10% and 1.78%, which compared lower to those of the industry at 2.52% and 5.14%, respectively. The charts on the bottom show our still conservative profile as we have provisioned enough to maintain our coverage ratio elevated when compared to our history, while it has not been the case for the system as a whole. In that regard, we are providing in our guidance updated figures for the cost of risk and the coverage ratio for the rest of 2021, which are consistent with the gradual reduction of our excess reserves. If positive trends were to continue, we will still have by year-end, an oversized coverage ratio and will leave the door open for a below average cost of risk in 2022. In Slide 7, you will see the evolution of our funding. We have a remarkable improvement in the mix, increasing the share of demand deposits from 32% to 39%, while reducing the share of interbank loans and time deposits from 22% and 42% to 18% and 40%, respectively.
Our zero-cost DDA account, Cuenta Conecta has been an important driver of this improvement, growing 39.8% on a year-over-year basis. The strong growth of demand deposits, alongside with the ample liquidity profile of the bank, which was inherited as part of the preventive measures for the COVID crisis have generated the optimal conditions for us to optimize the cost of funding and therefore, our margins. As part of this strategy, we have let go our most expensive sources of funding. As an example, we prepaid the public debt issuance we had in the market several weeks ago. Most of these changes took place during June, and we can see the changes in the balance sheet already. However, we are going to see the most of the benefits in the margins from next quarter onwards.
On Slide 8, you will see the performance of non-interest income, which has continued with the good trends we saw since the second half of 2020. The growth for this quarter was 46.7% when compared to the second quarter of last year. The fee business grew 19% with several business lines performing very well, such as the acquiring business and transfer fees that show the strongest rebound. Other positive contributors are the Insurance business, appraisals, among others. Also, credit fees continue to be a drag as the origination of new loans have been moderated in the first half of the year. However, we maintained the expectation that this particular line of business will recover later this year. In trading income, we managed to grow 2.65x as the comparison base of last year had some negative valuation impacts. Jet, the FX business, which is a recurring revenue source grew 41%.
Moving on to Slide 9. We can see the performance of our efficiency ratio. It came in at 49.7% in the second quarter of 2021, which compares favorably against the system and our peers that posted an efficiency of 56.8% and 53.2%, respectively, for the April, May period. We would like to emphasize the good cost control for the past quarters as expenses have remained steady while the revenues have now started to improve. We would like to highlight that we have not stopped investments in the digital transformation of the bank. And therefore, we expect the pace of expenses to pick up slightly for the rest of the year, as we stand now below the guidance of expenses at 2.8% year-on-year for the first half of 2021.
On Slide 10, we can see the preliminary capitalization ratio as of June of 2021 of 17.54%, of which almost all is Tier 1 capital. Our current capitalization remains very strong even after the dividend payment we made on May for 25% of the net income of 2019 and 2020, which is the maximum payout recommended by the regulators as of right now.
Moving on to Slide 11. We introduced our revised guidance for 2021. It is important to mention the macroeconomic assumptions used to compute it. First, we are not incorporating any additional dividends as we don't know if the regulator is going to relax the current recommendation. And second, we are not considering any additional rate hikes for 2021, maintaining the benchmark rate flat at the current levels. However, in order to provide more light on the possible implications of a more restrictive monetary policy, we estimate an additional benefit for a 25 basis point hike per month of MXN 16.7 million to revenues and MXN 10.5 million to net income, which is consistent with the sensibility we have discussed previously of 31 basis points of NIM per 100 basis point change in the interest rate and considering all tax implications.
The revisions are the following: We lowered our expectations for loan growth this year to 3% to 5% on the back of the weak credit demand we have observed in the system for the first half of the year; we maintained the deposit growth at 7% to 10%; improve our NIM guidance to 4% to 4.1% as optimization of the funding has started to pay off; we increase the noninterest revenues to 16% to 19% on the back of the good trends we are seeing in several business lines; maintain our expense growth and efficiency ratio unchanged; improve our cost of risk to 50 to 70 basis points; NPL below 1.6%; coverage ratio above 140% and capitalization above 17%.
We increased our net income guidance to MXN 4.2 billion to MXN 4.4 billion, which is a growth of 22% to 28% from 2020 numbers, and an updated ROAE from 11.5% to 12.2%.
In conclusion, we are glad to introduce our revised guidance for 2021. We have seen positive surprises in key drivers that have let us increase most of our targets for this year. The management continues to be very cautious with the current conditions and recognize that the risks of the crisis are not over. However, we now see Banco del Bajio in a stronger position to reincorporate profitability as one of the priorities going forward.
With this, I conclude my presentation, and we can open the call to the Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is to the line of Ernesto Gabilondo.
Edgardo, Joaquin, Luis, congratulations in your second quarter results and in your promise and guidance for the year. My first question is on your loan growth expectations. Can you elaborate on why are you reducing the loan portfolio growth to 3%, 5% this year? Is it because you're having tough year-over-year comps as you grew more the portfolio last year. And do you see that you see achievable double-digit growth next year, considering better GDP expectations, U.S. recovery and a more balance Congress? Then my second question is after the strong second quarter results and the improvement in your ROAE, how are you seeing your sustainable ROAE? And what will be the level of interest rates behind that assumption for the long-term ROAE? And finally, my last question is on the common equity Tier 1, which is high, again at 17.5%. So have you explored the idea or talk to the authorities to be able to release another dividend payment this year?
Regarding loan growth, we saw during the first semester, a lower demand but also some important prepayments, prepayments for about a little bit more than MXN 3 billion. So that is the reason of this result we are having in that comparison, June against June 2020. If you see our numbers, we have an important growth also in the second semester last year, starting in September. We were able to grow between September and December importantly. So for the second semester, we are starting to see slowly an increase in demand. Actually, the third quarter is coming well and we are starting to see some growth in July already.
The focus will be as you -- as we mentioned during the presentation, the focus will be in medium-sized companies in [ PMS ]. And also, we will continue with a strong cross-sell in consumer lending. The idea is to continue improving our margin in the mix of the portfolio. We're starting to see better demand mainly in the [ Kakio ] region and the North region, both West and East, and that is very well aligned with our footprint. The main industries behind that tick in demand is at a business that is one of the focus always on and very good line of business. But also manufacture -- manufacturing in general and industry. So we are very well prepared for that growth. But the comparison against 2020 is going to be harder. For 20 -- for next year, for 2022, with the expectation in GDP, that is a little bit above 4%. We think that we can be able to be close to double digit or above double digit as we have been for many years.
Regarding the second question about ROAE. As you saw, we are reaching levels of capitalization really high. We've seen that our sustainable level of capitalization is 14%. With that level of capital and rates, you saw already that the consensus is around 5.5% for next year. With that level of rate and also with the focus we are having in improving NIM and also non-interest income as you have been seeing in the last quarters, we think that the ROAE should be around 18% to 19% in that environment. So we are looking forward for that. And we think that is very achievable. The third question will be answered by Carlos.
This is Carlos de la Cerda. As Edgardo just mentioned that we are worried -- I mean not worried. We are concerned about our excess capital since it hurts our ROAE. Yesterday, in the meeting of the Board of Directors, we were discussing this point with our directors and main stockholders. And well, we all agree that if the regulators become more flexible in their strong recommendation of -- about the limits for paying dividends, we would like to pay a large dividend to reduce our excess capital to a level where we are comfortable that the generation of profits can sustain the growth in loans without any problem. And even growing our capitalization rate again.
So if we could take our capitalization rate at close to 14% level, we would be paying around MXN 6 billion in dividends. I don't know if that is possible in the regulators and we have been talking with them. And they are concerned about the third wave of COVID pandemic and its effect on the economy and its effect on the banking system. And they told us that they will be open to talk this point again later this year, not right now. But we would like to optimize our level of capital to increase the ROAE and sustain a level of growth without any problem.
Congrats, again in your results.
Our next question comes from Thiago Batista.
Thiago Batista from UBS. I have 1 question and 1 follow-up. The follow-up about the ROAE that you just answered. Only to double check. To achieve this 80%, 90% of ROAE, we need to see for sure a much better capital position. So we need to see the bank around 14% of our capital to achieve this level of profitability. So this is a follow-up. And my question is about margins. When we look to the guidance of margins of 4%, 4.1%. The bank ended the first -- the second Q at 2.4% or something close to that. So effect to confirm that margins will improve a lot in the second half of the year. Maybe we will end the year at, let's say, 4.5 or something close to that, to achieve this around 4 on average. And if it is the case, the margin tend to be very good if the trend is really this part trend in the bank's market only to confirm this trend in margins if this is correct.
Yes, Thiago. The idea is to continue improving the cost of fund in the margins in general. We have been very focused in demand deposits, as you saw. And we are very happy with the results, the demand deposits at 0 cost that is Cuenta Conecta mainly, is growing at 1 point percent. So that means that we have been able to grow MXN 5 billion during the first semester. And we see that those -- that increase in deposits could increase in the following 18 months. So Cuenta Conecta accounts today for about MXN 36.5 billion. And we think that we will end above MXN 40 billion and a little bit above MXN 50 billion next year. So that is helping deposits also in the growth of deposits.
New accounts, new accounts, I mean, sales of new accounts in DDA account is growing more than 50% year-over-year. And customers -- new customers are growing about 9.2% when you compare the numbers at the end of June, with June 2020. Also, we have been very focused in providing our companies and individuals with more products and services. That includes the engagement of those customers with the bank. We launched an initiative of different products of cash management that is improving that engagement we are having, a technical action we are having -- we talk with the companies.
To give you an example, you saw during the presentation that the agro business is growing in loans close to 13%. But deposits with those customers are growing more than 40%. So that combination is helping us to increase the level of deposits with customers. But at the same time, we are letting go some sources of deposits that were really expensive. That includes, for example, the prepayment of the bond but also a few customers that represent concentration in deposits, but also that were very expensive. So we are very focused in improving the mix and also improving in margins.
To give you an example, if you see in the presentation the cost on funding for demand deposits for the quarter, it was 1.54%, that is the average cost for the quarter. But at the end of the quarter, the cost was 1.04%, that is an important improvement in the bank deposits of 50 basis points. And we are starting July already with that cost of fund. And also, the growth in loans, we're going to be much more focused, as I said previously, in medium and small companies and in consumer loans, trying also to improve our margin in loans.
So we are very focused in that, and that's why the answer to Ernesto, regarding the sustainable level of returns on capital within at that level that I said is very achievable. I mean, regarding the sustainable ROAE just we have feel the level that I said previously, with that level of capitalization of 14% rates growing at the consensus for 2022, 5.5% and also the improvement that we are -- that we will achieve in the following months. The level between 18% to 19% is really achievable.
Just to follow up. Do you believe already next year, we can see this level of ROAE?
If rates go to that level, that is the consensus today. And also, we are able to that level of dividend that Carlos mentioned, to get to 14% in a regular environment, I mean without pandemic, we've seen that, that level is achievable. Yes.
Our next question comes from Jorge Kuri.
It's Jorge Kuri from Morgan Stanley. I have 2 questions. The first one is on your guidance. I'm not sure I understand why you are not including any more rate increases in your NIM and NII guidance? Is it because you don't think rates are going to go up, like your internal forecast is 425? And yes, so I guess that's the first question. And then the second is on trading, can you explain what was behind the sharp increase in trading gains this quarter? And how best to think about what is a normalized sustainable level of trading income per quarter over the next 4 quarters or so?
Thank you, Jorge. I will answer the first question, and then I will ask Joaquin to answer the second. We decided not to include any additional increase in rates. So it is really an external factor that we don't control. We know that it consensus and almost all the analysts think that Banco del Bajío will increase rates in the next meeting, 25 basis points and it's very possible, an additional increase at least in the rest of the year. As it is an external factor, we decided not to include it. That's why in the footnote of the guidance, we are including the additional impact that this increase in rates would have in net income. And also, as we are following the recommendation in dividends, we didn't include as well any additional dividend during the rest of the year. So that is the reason behind we decided not to include it. It's not that we don't think that it's going to happen. It's really that I see this as an external factor, we decided to play conservative but also to disclose what is the impact that we could have in addition to this guidance. Joaquin?
Okay, regarding to trading income, the first thing is that last year, we had a negative valuation on derivatives. And this year, we have a positive valuation and also won [ Jet ] operation that brings us about MXN 40 million of income. In addition of that, we have been improving a lot on trading of FX supported by our digital platform. We are growing more than 40% trading by the [ visa ] application. And we are expecting that we will maintain that trend. The sustainable trading income for the next 2 quarters or income for related with derivatives and FX is pretty close to MXN 115 million per quarter.
All right. Just an observation, if I may. I -- given the importance of interest rates to the business, both on the asset and on the liability side, I think that the investor base and analyst would probably prefer that you actually incorporate your views on rates in your guidance? And then just a clarification, Joaquin. So the number that you gave is only for a portion of your trading income? Or that was sort of like the full loan market-related income expectation for the next quarters?
Full loan.
Next question comes from Adriana.
This is Adriana from Scotiabank. Congratulations on your results, and thank you for letting me ask a question. So I wanted to see if you can give us further insight as to future investments and how in digital transformation, how that may impact your expenses? We've seen strict cost control at least more than what we were expecting. So it would be helpful for us to see how investments in the future could impact the line items.
I think you might be on mute. Can you unmute yourself to answer the question?
Yes. Hello, can you hear me?
We can hear you, yes.
Okay. Perfect. Should I repeat my question, or...
We can hear you fine, Adriana. Edgar, Carlos, Joaquin, you unmute yourselves to answer the question.
Yes. Yes. And thanks, Adriana, for your question. We were able to hear very well. Regarding expenses, you see our guidance, we decided to keep the same level of increase in expenses. But in the first semester, we were able to have a very good cost control, as you mentioned. So during the second semester, several pieces of the digital transformation will be in production, and we will start the amortization of that investment. Nevertheless, we've seen that we should be able to be in the lower part of the range in that regard.
Also, as we are increasing in sales very well with several products, mainly DDA accounts, cards, debit cards, payroll, et cetera. Additional accounts bring new expenses. So we think that the level of 6% that is the lower part of the range is achievable. We are doing very well in the digital transformation. As you saw, digital customers are growing 50%, digital transactions are growing 40% and the mobile app, mainly in individuals, individuals are growing more than 80%. So we are doing very well.
And let me tell you one important thing, one important aspect that is customer experience. Even that we have our own MPS, the rating coming from the different stores both iOS, Android and Huawei is really very good. The average rating of those stores for Banco del Bajío app is 4.6, that is the highest. Remember that the highest rating is 5, that 4.6 is the highest rating together with BBA in those stores. We are very happy with the feedback we are getting from customers and the customer experience is really, really very good and is improving.
During this second semester, we are going to start actually, we made during July, a couple of weeks ago, the first wave of migration of the first businesses. And we are planning to end by December all the businesses to the new platform. That means that by the end of 2021, all our customers will be in the new platform. So very happy with those results, and we are doing very well in the digital transformation. And that is one of the main reasons of the increase in expenses slightly that we are expecting for the second semester. Thank you, Adriana.
Our next question comes from Rodrigo Ortega.
Rodrigo Ortega from BBVA. You listen me fine?
Yes, very well.
I was saying, if I heard correctly, your guidance does not include any release of preemptive provisions at least in the release you provided it. So can you give us an update as to when would you be comfortable enough to start building this excess provisions given that you are one of the banks that have created the most additional reserves.
Yes. The level of cost of risk that we are having, we think it is already our normal level. We see our normal level of cost of risk between 0.6% and 0.8%. And of course, the coverage ratio today is really high. And we think that the litigation of excess reserves will be very gradual, even that we want to maintain for the rest of the year, a strong coverage ratio. Having said that, if the asset quality trend continues to be good, it is likely that we can have in 2022, a lower than normal cost of risk. So we're -- the idea is to act on that regard gradually, Rodrigo.
Okay. So gradually through 2022, basically?
Gradually during the rest of the year and also 2022.
Our next question comes from the line of Jorge Henderson.
This is Jorge Henderson from Santander. I only have 1 question regarding your change of guidance on the noninterest income growth. Could you give us more detail on this change upwards, like what are the -- how did your expectations change?
Yes, we are doing very well. Behind those results, we are seeing very good numbers in fees in general to give you several indicators and the reason why we are very positive. Interchange in general, coming from credit cards and debit cards, we are growing 75% in the second semester -- in the second quarter and more than 50% for the first 6 months of the year. Also transfer fees mainly in Bajionet. We are growing, as you saw in the presentation, more than 100%. So that means much more activity in transfer fees in our digital channels. For example, payroll debit cards, we are growing 25%, but the amount we are distributing in salaries in those accounts is growing 37%. That means also more fees and more opportunity to cross-sell alone.
E-commerce is growing very well. E-commerce account already for 25% of total billings. That means also more activity and more fees. The acquiring business, billings are growing in general, 43%. But we have been able, as we are looking for bigger businesses with more persistent income before taxes in the acquiring business is growing 54%. So -- and bank insurance is growing more than 40%. So the level of the new range in noninterest within is really achievable.
So -- and also, as I said previously, we have been very focused on improving our relationship with our customers and provide them with more products and services. So the cross-sell index in general is improving in all the different segments. And that is a strong focus for all the bankers in the bank. So that is the reason of that increase in the new guidance. Carlos will complement my answer.
And also, as we mentioned before, the loan growth in the first semester was very sluggish, and we expect to pick up in the second semester. And the loan growth brings big commissions along. So we also expect a larger income from commissions of newly generated loans from this -- in this second semester and the next year.
Actually, that increase of 40 -- almost 47% that we are reporting in the second quarter comes with a decrease in credit fees of about 17%. So that is -- that brings additional opportunity for the second semester. Thank you Jorge.
Our next question comes from Ignacio. Let's move on to another question, and we can -- no, here we go. Ignacio, can you hear us?
Go ahead, Ignacio. Okay. Let's move on to another question, and we'll come back to Ignacio later. We'll move on to a question from [ Jose Pierro ].
Hi, Ignacio. We hear you. Can you pick up, please?
Yes.
Yes. Please go ahead and answer your question.
Thanks, Joaquin, the excess capital impact the ROAE. You think they can pay the dividend 2019, 2020 in next month?
In the -- the dividend that we paid this year was the maximum dividend that the regulator allowed us to pay. We pay 25% of the accumulated -- of the -- of the 2019 and '21 -- and 25% of 2020 profits. So -- and that is the maximum amount of dividends that the regulator allowed any bank to pay out. So we are expecting a flexibility -- more flexibility from the regulator as they see that there is -- I mean, we're not expecting a big -- a crisis or a big deterioration in the market anymore. So if they become more flexible, we will try to pay out the largest dividend we can pay without decreasing our capitalization rate under 14%, which we feel very comfortable with.
We have not received any further questions at this time. So that concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand the call back over for some closing remarks.
Thank you very much for joining the conference call, and we will see you next quarter. Be safe.
That concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.