Y

YPF SA
BCBA:YPFD

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YPF SA
BCBA:YPFD
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Price: 36 700 ARS 3.23%
Market Cap: 14.4T ARS
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Intrinsic Value

The intrinsic value of one YPFD stock under the Base Case scenario is 53 254.92 ARS. Compared to the current market price of 36 700 ARS, YPF SA is Undervalued by 31%.

The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:

YPFD Intrinsic Value
53 254.92 ARS
Undervaluation 31%
Intrinsic Value
Price
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Base Case
Best Case

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YPF SA

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Backtest Conclusion
Very Attractive
Current Valuation
+45%
Avg Valuation
-12%
Worst Valuation
-49%
Best Valuation
+45%

Stock is trading at its lowest valuation over the past 5 years.

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Fundamental Analysis

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Business Breakdown

YPF SA, or Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Sociedad Anónima, is Argentina's largest oil and gas company, playing a pivotal role in the country’s energy landscape. Founded in 1922, YPF is predominantly state-owned, with a mission to explore, produce, refine, and distribute hydrocarbons across Argentina. Traditionally recognized for its vast natural resources, YPF is not just an energy supplier; it has evolved into a player driving innovation in renewable energy projects and sustainable practices. With a diverse portfolio that spans both upstream exploration and downstream distribution, YPF is positioned as a key contributor to Argentina’s energy security and economic growth, making it an at...

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Financials
Annual
Quarterly
TTM
Annual
Quarterly
TTM

Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
YPF SA

Balance Sheet Decomposition
YPF SA

Current Assets 6.5T
Cash & Short-Term Investments 1.3T
Receivables 1.8T
Other Current Assets 3.4T
Non-Current Assets 18.6T
Long-Term Investments 1.6T
PP&E 16.4T
Intangibles 353.9B
Other Non-Current Assets 267.2B
Current Liabilities 6.9T
Accounts Payable 2.3T
Accrued Liabilities 497.9B
Other Current Liabilities 4.1T
Non-Current Liabilities 8.6T
Long-Term Debt 6.8T
Other Non-Current Liabilities 1.8T
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
YPF SA

Revenue
11.6T ARS
Cost of Revenue
-8.7T ARS
Gross Profit
2.9T ARS
Operating Expenses
-1.8T ARS
Operating Income
1.1T ARS
Other Expenses
-1.8T ARS
Net Income
-699B ARS

Free Cash Flow Analysis
YPF SA

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
Earnings Calls

The company experienced a 2% increase in hydrocarbon production, reaching over 511,000 barrels daily, with a notable 7% inter-annual expansion in crude oil production aligning with short-term growth strategies. Adjusted EBITDA surged past $1 billion, up 12% from the last quarter and 5% year-over-year, while net income reached $341 million. Investment spiked to $1.3 billion, a 78% increase from the same period last year, primarily focusing on lucrative shale operations which now account for over 50% of capital deployment. Shale oil production grew by 31% year-over-year. Despite higher output and operational efficiencies, free cash flow remained nearly flat at a negative $17 million due to higher costs and an unchanged leverage ratio at 1.2 times. Prospects include expansion in export capacity and ongoing infrastructure projects, which are expected to enhance performance without significant impact from import restrictions. Future export market targets are set to hit 35-40% of total production in five years, and the company has achieved a net funding of $500 million from raising over $1 billion year-to-date.

What is Earnings Call?
Fundamental Scores

YPFD Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

YPF SA's profitability score is 45/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Positive Gross Profit
Positive 3-Year Average ROIC
Positive ROIC
Positive Free Cash Flow
45/100
Profitability
Score

YPF SA's profitability score is 45/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

YPFD Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

YPF SA's solvency score is 33/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Low D/E
Long-Term Solvency
Short-Term Solvency
Positive Net Debt
33/100
Solvency
Score

YPF SA's solvency score is 33/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

YPFD Price Targets Summary
YPF SA

Wall Street analysts forecast YPFD stock price to drop over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for YPFD is 23 436.57 ARS with a low forecast of 5 384.41 ARS and a high forecast of 42 630 ARS.

Lowest
Price Target
5 384.41 ARS
85% Downside
Average
Price Target
23 436.57 ARS
36% Downside
Highest
Price Target
42 630 ARS
16% Upside
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Dividends

Dividend Yield
Lowest
Average
Highest
Dividend Per Share
N/A
Growth 3Y
Growth 5Y
Growth 10Y
Dividend Safety Score
Very
Unsafe
Unsafe
Safe
Very
Safe
0
25
50
75
100
Shareholder Yield

Current shareholder yield for YPFD is .

Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?

Shareholder Yield
Dividend Yield
Lowest
Average
Highest
Buyback Yield
Lowest
Average
Highest
Debt Paydown Yield
Lowest
Average
Highest

Profile

YPF SA

Country

Argentina

Industry

Energy

Market Cap

14T ARS

Dividend Yield

0%

Description

YPF SA engages in the exploration, production, and distribution of oil and gas. The company is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires. The firm is operating a fully integrated oil and gas chain. The firm operates through the segments, including Exploration and Production, Downstream, and Corporate and Other. The firm's Exploration and Production segment includes exploration and production activities, natural gas and crude oil purchases, sales of natural gas, and to a lesser extent crude oil, to third parties and intersegment sales of crude oil, natural gas and its byproducts. The firm's Downstream segment is engaged in the refining, transport, purchase of crude oil and natural gas from third parties and intersegment sales, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined products, petrochemicals, electric power generation and natural gas distribution. The firm's Corporate and Other segment carries out other activities.

Contact

BUENOS AIRES
Buenos Aires
Macacha Guemes 515
+541154411276.0
www.ypf.com

IPO

1999-04-14

Employees

-

Officers

CEO & Non Independent Chairman
Mr. Horacio Daniel Marin
Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Federico Barroetave
Technology Vice President
Mr. Alejandro Wyss
Director of Planning, Finance & IR
Mr. Pedro Luis Kearney
Chief Compliance Officer
Ms. Maria De Las Mercedes Archimbal
Corporate Vice President of Legal Affairs
Mr. German Fernandez Lahore
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Public Affairs Vice President
Mr. Lisandro Deleonardis
Vice President of Corporate Affairs, Communication & Marketing
Mr. Guillermo Garat
Vice President of People & Culture
Ms. Florencia Tiscornia
Executive Vice President of Gas & Power
Mr. Santiago Martinez Tanoira
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See Also

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What is the Intrinsic Value of one YPFD stock?

The intrinsic value of one YPFD stock under the Base Case scenario is 53 254.92 ARS.

Is YPFD stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 36 700 ARS, YPF SA is Undervalued by 31%.

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