YPF SA
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one YPFD stock under the Base Case scenario is 53 254.92 ARS. Compared to the current market price of 36 700 ARS, YPF SA is Undervalued by 31%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
YPF SA
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Fundamental Analysis
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YPF SA, or Yacimientos PetrolĂferos Fiscales Sociedad AnĂłnima, is Argentina's largest oil and gas company, playing a pivotal role in the country’s energy landscape. Founded in 1922, YPF is predominantly state-owned, with a mission to explore, produce, refine, and distribute hydrocarbons across Argentina. Traditionally recognized for its vast natural resources, YPF is not just an energy supplier; it has evolved into a player driving innovation in renewable energy projects and sustainable practices. With a diverse portfolio that spans both upstream exploration and downstream distribution, YPF is positioned as a key contributor to Argentina’s energy security and economic growth, making it an at...
YPF SA, or Yacimientos PetrolĂferos Fiscales Sociedad AnĂłnima, is Argentina's largest oil and gas company, playing a pivotal role in the country’s energy landscape. Founded in 1922, YPF is predominantly state-owned, with a mission to explore, produce, refine, and distribute hydrocarbons across Argentina. Traditionally recognized for its vast natural resources, YPF is not just an energy supplier; it has evolved into a player driving innovation in renewable energy projects and sustainable practices. With a diverse portfolio that spans both upstream exploration and downstream distribution, YPF is positioned as a key contributor to Argentina’s energy security and economic growth, making it an attractive entity for investors looking to tap into the Latin American energy market.
For investors, YPF SA presents both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, its strong domestic focus allows it to capitalize on Argentina’s significant shale reserves, particularly in the Vaca Muerta formation, which is one of the largest sources of shale oil and gas in the world. The company’s efforts to enhance operational efficiency and modernize its infrastructure hint at a bright future. However, potential investors should remain cautious of the volatile Argentine economic environment, characterized by inflation and regulatory uncertainties that can affect profitability. As the country seeks to bolster its energy independence, YPF SA stands at the forefront of this transformative journey, presenting a compelling investment narrative enriched by both potential rewards and inherent risks in a complex market landscape.
YPF SA, or Yacimientos PetrolĂferos Fiscales Sociedad AnĂłnima, is the largest oil and gas company in Argentina. Its core business segments can be broadly categorized as follows:
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Exploration and Production (E&P):
- This segment involves the exploration for and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. YPF operates in several key regions, including the Neuquén Basin, which is known for shale oil and gas. The company focuses on both conventional and unconventional resources, and it plays a critical role in meeting Argentina's energy needs.
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Refining and Marketing:
- YPF refines crude oil into various petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals. The company operates several refineries throughout Argentina. The marketing aspect involves the distribution and sale of these products through an extensive network of service stations and other retail outlets.
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Petrochemicals:
- This segment involves the production and sale of petrochemical products derived from oil and gas. These products are used in various industries, including plastics, fertilizers, and pharmaceuticals. YPF's petrochemical facilities are integral to its value chain.
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Natural Gas:
- YPF is involved in the transportation, distribution, and marketing of natural gas. This segment is essential for providing energy to domestic and commercial users, as well as for export opportunities.
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Renewable Energy:
- In response to global energy trends, YPF has also begun to invest in renewable energy initiatives, including wind and solar power projects. This diversification is part of the company’s long-term strategy to transition to more sustainable energy solutions.
These segments collectively contribute to YPF’s role as a key player in Argentina’s energy landscape, reflecting its efforts to balance traditional fossil fuel operations with emerging energy trends.
YPF SA, a major player in the Argentine energy sector, possesses several unique competitive advantages that differentiate it from its rivals. Here are some of the key factors:
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Market Leadership: YPF is the largest oil and gas company in Argentina, which provides it with a significant market share and stronger negotiating power with suppliers, customers, and contractors.
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Vertical Integration: YPF operates across the entire value chain of the oil and gas industry, from exploration and production to refining and distribution. This vertical integration allows for better control over costs, efficiency, and risk management.
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Extensive Asset Base: The company has a diverse portfolio of assets, including conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon resources, with a strong presence in the Vaca Muerta shale formation. This gives YPF a competitive edge in terms of production potential and resource availability.
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Government Relationship: As a historically significant state-owned enterprise, YPF has a crucial relationship with the Argentine government. This can translate into favorable regulatory conditions, access to licenses, and support for infrastructure projects.
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Technological Expertise: YPF has invested in technology and innovation, particularly in shale drilling and extraction techniques. This enables the company to operate more efficiently and effectively than some of its competitors.
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Local Knowledge and Expertise: Being an Argentine company, YPF has in-depth knowledge of local markets, regulations, and community relationships, which can be a significant advantage in navigating the complexities of the Argentine energy landscape.
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Brand Recognition: YPF is a well-known brand in Argentina, which helps in customer loyalty and trust. This brand strength can be leveraged in various segments, including fuels and lubricants.
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Diverse Revenue Streams: In addition to core oil and gas production, YPF has diversified operations in areas such as petrochemicals and renewable energy, which can help mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in the oil market.
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Strategic Partnerships: YPF has formed alliances and joint ventures with international companies, helping it to leverage foreign expertise and technology while sharing risks in exploration and production ventures.
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Commitment to Sustainability: Increasingly, YPF is focusing on sustainable practices and renewable energy investment, which can enhance its reputation and align with global trends towards sustainability, positioning it favorably among environmentally conscious stakeholders.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, YPF SA is well-positioned to navigate the challenges of the Argentine energy market and maintain its leadership position against rivals.
YPF SA, as one of the largest oil and gas companies in Argentina, faces several risks and challenges that could impact its business performance in the near future. Some of these include:
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Regulatory and Political Risks: Argentina’s political environment can be unstable. Changes in government policies, such as energy regulations, taxation changes, or subsidies, can significantly impact YPF’s operational costs and profitability. Nationalization measures or restrictions on foreign investment could also pose risks.
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Economic Volatility: Argentina has faced significant economic challenges, including inflation, currency devaluation, and recessionary pressures. These factors can affect YPF's cost structure, revenues, and overall financial health. High inflation could erode margins.
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Market Competition: The energy sector is highly competitive, and YPF faces competition from both local and international players. The company must continuously adapt to maintain its market position and explore new opportunities for growth.
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Commodity Price Fluctuations: As a company in the oil and gas industry, YPF's profitability is heavily influenced by global crude oil and natural gas prices. Volatility in these prices can lead to unpredictable revenue streams and financial uncertainty.
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Environmental Regulations and Climate Change: Increasing environmental regulations and the global shift towards renewable energy sources pose challenges for traditional oil and gas companies. YPF may need to invest in cleaner technologies or shift its business model to remain competitive.
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Operational Challenges: The oil and gas sector involves complex operations, including exploration, production, and refining. Operational issues such as equipment failures, accidents, or supply chain disruptions can affect production and profitability.
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Investment and Financing: YPF requires significant capital investments for upstream and downstream projects. Securing adequate financing in a challenging economic environment, along with maintaining a healthy balance sheet, is crucial for ongoing operations and growth.
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Worker Strikes and Labor Relations: Labor relations can be tense in Argentina, and strikes or disputes can disrupt operations and impact productivity.
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Technological Change: The energy sector is rapidly evolving due to technological advancements. Keeping pace with innovations and investing in technology to optimize operations and reduce costs is essential for YPF’s competitive advantage.
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Currency Risk: As an Argentine company, YPF is exposed to currency risk, particularly given the volatility of the Argentine peso. Most of its operations and revenues can be affected by fluctuations in exchange rates, impacting profit margins.
Addressing these risks and challenges will require strategic planning, effective risk management, and adaptation to the dynamic economic and regulatory environment in Argentina and the global energy landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
YPF SA
Balance Sheet Decomposition
YPF SA
Current Assets | 6.5T |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 1.3T |
Receivables | 1.8T |
Other Current Assets | 3.4T |
Non-Current Assets | 18.6T |
Long-Term Investments | 1.6T |
PP&E | 16.4T |
Intangibles | 353.9B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 267.2B |
Current Liabilities | 6.9T |
Accounts Payable | 2.3T |
Accrued Liabilities | 497.9B |
Other Current Liabilities | 4.1T |
Non-Current Liabilities | 8.6T |
Long-Term Debt | 6.8T |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1.8T |
Earnings Waterfall
YPF SA
Revenue
|
11.6T
ARS
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-8.7T
ARS
|
Gross Profit
|
2.9T
ARS
|
Operating Expenses
|
-1.8T
ARS
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Operating Income
|
1.1T
ARS
|
Other Expenses
|
-1.8T
ARS
|
Net Income
|
-699B
ARS
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
YPF SA
ARS | |
Free Cash Flow | ARS |
The company experienced a 2% increase in hydrocarbon production, reaching over 511,000 barrels daily, with a notable 7% inter-annual expansion in crude oil production aligning with short-term growth strategies. Adjusted EBITDA surged past $1 billion, up 12% from the last quarter and 5% year-over-year, while net income reached $341 million. Investment spiked to $1.3 billion, a 78% increase from the same period last year, primarily focusing on lucrative shale operations which now account for over 50% of capital deployment. Shale oil production grew by 31% year-over-year. Despite higher output and operational efficiencies, free cash flow remained nearly flat at a negative $17 million due to higher costs and an unchanged leverage ratio at 1.2 times. Prospects include expansion in export capacity and ongoing infrastructure projects, which are expected to enhance performance without significant impact from import restrictions. Future export market targets are set to hit 35-40% of total production in five years, and the company has achieved a net funding of $500 million from raising over $1 billion year-to-date.
What is Earnings Call?
YPFD Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
YPF SA's profitability score is 45/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
YPF SA's profitability score is 45/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
YPFD Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
YPF SA's solvency score is 33/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
YPF SA's solvency score is 33/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
YPFD Price Targets Summary
YPF SA
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for YPFD is 23 436.57 ARS with a low forecast of 5 384.41 ARS and a high forecast of 42 630 ARS.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for YPFD is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
YPF SA engages in the exploration, production, and distribution of oil and gas. The company is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires. The firm is operating a fully integrated oil and gas chain. The firm operates through the segments, including Exploration and Production, Downstream, and Corporate and Other. The firm's Exploration and Production segment includes exploration and production activities, natural gas and crude oil purchases, sales of natural gas, and to a lesser extent crude oil, to third parties and intersegment sales of crude oil, natural gas and its byproducts. The firm's Downstream segment is engaged in the refining, transport, purchase of crude oil and natural gas from third parties and intersegment sales, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined products, petrochemicals, electric power generation and natural gas distribution. The firm's Corporate and Other segment carries out other activities.
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Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one YPFD stock under the Base Case scenario is 53 254.92 ARS.
Compared to the current market price of 36 700 ARS, YPF SA is Undervalued by 31%.