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Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics SA
ATHEX:OPAP

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Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics SA
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Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2021-Q2

from 0
Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Konstantinos, your chorus call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the OPAP SA Conference Call and Live Webcast to Present and Discuss the Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Results and Online Business Focus. [Operator Instructions] And the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jan Karas CEO of OPAP SA. Mr. Karas, you may now proceed.

J
Jan Karas
executive

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to our financial results call today in the very special format where you can not only hear us, but in case you are connected through the web link, also see us. Please, rest assured that we have taken all the safety measures that you may enjoy watching us without the masks. The key reason for that special format today is besides the usual agenda, we would like to share with you also more of the forward-looking trends, focusing on how we plan to explore our opportunities in online. And that, combined with some more details on the subject of our dividend policy and the addendum.

For that reason besides the usual presenter, our CFO, Pavel Mucha, we have with us today also several important guests, starting from the right James Curwen, our Chief Online Officer in OPAP; and on my left side, George Daskalakis, Founder and the CEO of Stoiximan; and Pavlos Kanellopoulos, CFO of Stoiximan. Gentlemen, welcome. We will start with the usual agenda, where Pavel and I will take you through the H1 financial results, and then I will hand over to my colleagues to share with you the additional topics we have prepared for you.

Let me start right away with the key highlights of the last 6 months. Despite the fact that the COVID-related circumstances have raised the series of challenges on our business, you may remember that our last communication involved a fair degree of cautious optimism about the future outlook. We are excited that our reported results moved along the express lines of confidence due to strong online contribution, encouraging retail recovery aided by full commercial back to the game plan and, very importantly, persisting VLT momentum. We will speak about these later in our presentation.

Now operationally wise, the launch of our loyalty program that we spoke about before in April has brought in tangible results. The digitalization of our retail network offering is continuing at full speed, and we are now ready to launch our new exciting OPAP Store app, enabling the in-store play on the customer device.

That's for the quick intro. I'm handing over now to Pavel to take you through the financial results of the first half of the year.

P
Pavel Mucha
executive

Thank you, Jan, and good afternoon, everybody. Q2 was indeed very strong quarter and several KPIs have been significantly improved. But before going to the numbers, and starting as always with macro developments, it is true that Delta wave brings us some uncertainty. But all other indicators, early tourism numbers in July and August indicate a very strong recovery, and it's also supported by consumer confidence and economic sentiment figures. And all that implies that the GDP projections will most probably be met and possibly even surpassed.

Now moving on to Q2 results, the total GGR in Q2 came at -- our Q2 figures were characterized by retail reopening and strong contribution of online with GGR more than doubling, compared to the respective period in last year. In Q2 '21, our total GGR came in at EUR 396 million, which is up by 120% year-on-year.

Moving on to the first half of the year, the total GGR came in at EUR 570 million. Stoiximan full consolidation led the half year figures grow by 12% despite the fact that our shops in the first half of 2021 were closed almost for the double of the period -- double of the days versus this time period in 2020.

Now focusing on the individual segments, the lottery rose by 46% in Q2 on the back of the retail reopening on the April 12, while online Joker continued upwards trend for yet another quarter, constantly attracting the new customers. Betting increased to EUR 132 million with Stoiximan being obviously a large part of that, and OPAP's online also growing, while online casino reached almost EUR 49 million. Finally, VLTs came in at EUR 36 million, which given the long-term shutdown in the previous period is more-than-satisfying performance, and we believe it sets the tone for the remainder of the year.

When it comes to the distinction between the channels, it is evident that retail reopening was successful, while online continued to perform well, as well. Both OPAP online and Stoiximan managed to increase considerably their revenue on a year-on-year level with OPAP's quarterly performance reaching EUR 16 million higher. That is by 60% year-on-year, at the same time staying close to all-time highs despite the retail reopening. Stoiximan growth in the first half of the year reached 81% with the company generating really exceptional numbers on every front -- and customers exceeding the [ 200,000 ] threshold.

Jumping on to the cost side, the full consolidation Stoiximan is obviously distorting overall figures on a Group basis. Q2 payroll decreased by 11% on a like-for-like basis at EUR 17.7 million, while marketing costs reached EUR 18 million on a like-for-like basis versus EUR 10.8 million in Q2 2020, which reflects the revamp of our marketing actions, and also support of our shops -- shops reopening and also the euro event.

Finally, other OpEx decreased to EUR 25.8 million, lower by 12% year-on-a-year on a like-for-like basis. And please note that our P&L continues to be burdened by the decision to record Hellenic Lotteries' increased GGR contribution, according to the annual contractual threshold of EUR 50 million, so as to stay prudent, despite the fact that we have already filed an arbitration request.

All in all, the combined impact of revenue growth, along with efficient cost control and the positive P&L impact of the concession extension shaped the Q2 EBITDA of EUR 143 million, and the relevant margin of 36.2%, which should grow further assuming a normal and uninterrupted full year. Net profit reached EUR 71.9 million, which, in turn, led to a strong operating cash flow in the first half of the year of EUR 140 million.

Investment-wise, we spent EUR 19 million related to the acquisition of Stoiximan, as well as EUR 10 million for the acquisition of new 5-year online licenses in both sports betting and casino. Overall, our strong profitability, together with limited investment, but more importantly higher visibility going forward, led us to the decision to distribute interim dividend per share of EUR 0.10, on top of the EUR 0.55 which were distributed just one month ago. Our net debt to EBITDA, as of 30th of June, stands at 1.3x. And this going forward -- our substantially strong financial position, together with a bright outlook makes us fully confident that our dividend policy will remain more than rewarding for our shareholders. We will share a bit more information on that in one of the next sections of our presentation.

With that, I'm passing you back to Jan.

J
Jan Karas
executive

Thank you, Pavel. So continuing on the operational and business update, let me share with you some interesting information from our retail estate. So as Pavel mentioned, the COVID has hitted us more stronger this year than last year. But despite that fact, we continue our retail excellence program and modernization of our stores. We have opened, for our customers, another 140 new and upgraded stores in the first half of the year. With that, the share of these new stores are reaching more than 40% of our estate.

We keep up on digitalizing the retail experience. We introduced centrally managed audio set up in almost 500 of our stores, and we continue adding the audio as an important element of the experience. We are concluding the Beacon installation with more than 3,000 of our stores already covered. Just to remind you, the Beacon technology is something that will enable us very soon now launched the OPAP Store app that we generally believe will be a true innovation for the retail sector, aiming to boost the digital experience. We have already started reaping the merits from the OPAP Rewards program launched back in April, reaching more than 400,000 registered customers, and on a daily basis 40,000 to 50,000 active users are enjoying the benefits of the app and are using it. Furthermore, we have boosted the customer experience during summer with hundreds of thematic in-store events, pursuing our ambition to provide more entertainment.

Important driver of our solid recovery has been, as always, our commercial plan. In this case, the plan called Back to the Game as connected to the retail network reopening. The key proposition, I believe, worth highlighting was certainly Euro 2020, which proved to be a great opportunity to reach out to our customers, bring them back, and keep the engagement with better than ever product proposition that we have offered for this special event, supported by a 360 campaign. Virtuals revamp spicing up the game with significantly upgraded visuals and new highlights. Another important element was launch of Laiko summer edition, aiming to revive customers' interest in one of the key heritage games within the Greek gaming industry. And last but not least, we have had an extended summer campaign across all verticals of our retail business.

The result, the GGR performance at similar levels as in 2019. And I'm particularly excited about the performance of our legacy games, which, despite all the indoor seating limitations, has shown great resilience and without any doubt aided by the new loyalty program performed really well. Another great thing were VLTs, which have emerged after the reopening of the retail network, as the key growth driver on the retail front.

Moving on to our online, few words from the online world. I'll try to be brief, not to steal the show from our colleagues later. As you can read from the charts, online is continuing recording very strong growth despite retail reopening, something that is very important for us. And we are experiencing the growth across all verticals. We also sustained very high levels of customer activity, and that trend continues. That's all on the first part from us. Let me now move to the promised forward-looking deep dives that we would like to share with you.

Before I hand over to my colleagues, I would like to set the scene for you with few facts about the Greek online market and our presence in it. Official numbers from HGC indicate that the market grew by more than 18% CAGR in the last 8 years, also aided by the extra kick of the pandemic in 2020. Forward-looking estimates from H2GC are no less optimistic, pursuing another 12% plus CAGR growth over the years to come. Stoiximan and OPAP 2020 market share is around 49%. And as such, we believe we are very well positioned to benefit from this expected growth of the market. New online licenses have been awarded in May, and since August all 15 license operators operate under the same rules from the regulatory and legal perspective, which was not necessarily the case in the past years. It's also important to mention that 12 out of the 15 have been already present in the market, and we have only 3 new entrants.

And then also Greek online market penetration, the development that you can see on the left side, the development and the growth trends are similar to EU. And the average then -- and the current amount of penetration are reaching and closing to the EU average. It's something that I consider especially encouraging, given the fact that Greece is generally slightly behind EU in terms of smartphone and digital adoption, and shows great opportunities we have on this market. Online penetration within OPAP that you can see on the right side besides strong growth of OPAP's own proposition that we discussed on the quarterly basis has been driven by acquisition of Stoiximan business that you may see reflected in the numbers starting December 2020. We remain strong after retail reopening with our online performance. And the expectations for the this KPI of online penetration within OPAP Group is to land at around 29% at the end of this year. And we are also confident that this performance is here to stay and grow stronger heading towards mid-30s in the mid- to long term.

Few years back, we have envisaged a dual strategy in online, and the journey has started 2.5 years ago with the first investment in Stoiximan, leading operator in Greece, and brought us here today holding 84.5% stake and sole control of Greek and Cypriot business. We are extremely proud of having Stoiximan as part of the OPAP Group. Stoiximan offers betting and iGaming as you can see on the chart on the right, leveraging their own top tier internally developed platform, giving them significant competitive advantage. As a brand and customer proposition Stoiximan operates completely independently from OPAP online.

On the OPAP side, we aim to leverage one of the most complete offerings in the industry supported by a very strong heritage brand. As such, we will, of course, continue to develop our non-exclusive portfolio of betting and iGaming, but also equal attention will be paid to bringing the power of OPAP's exclusive lottery games to online.

With that, we are confident that our dual strategy in online will help us not only to defend our position against current and possible future competitors, but also very importantly achieve further growth.

Now with that, I'm handing over to James Curwen, who will take you through more details on our plans regarding OPAP online. James, over to you.

J
James Curwen;Chief Online Officer
executive

Perfect. Thank you, Jan. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I'll be taking you through some insights into our current and future plans going forward. And first of all, I'd like to just talk about the fact that -- thank you. So first of all, we are modernizing our proposition in our brand. We've done a lot of insight and research into our customers through our data. And what we found so far is that 70% of our customers are 35 plus, and we need to target millennials going forward. It's very important that we do that, the new generation of spenders. 30% of our customers are also female, and we need to get a more even split between our female and male customers. One thing that we are working on in our brand awareness is our online customers on our main brand PAME STOIXIMA. Only 15% of them play with us exclusively. And our target is to increase our brand loyalty into 2022, and that will have a big impact on our customer base.

I think when we look at iLottery, what we can see from our retail players, we know that 50% of them in retail play more than just Joker. And that means that our confidence into launching more products in online will have a big difference to our numbers going forward. Next, if we have a look at our non-exclusive portfolio and our enhancements, this is our PAME STOIXIMA brand. We currently offer a full sports betting and casino product, but we need to work hard over the next months on lots of enhancements in in-play and our UX and UI. That's a key focus for us. We're also looking at our Virtuals. We're adding 100 new virtual games. So there'll be around the clock availability. This should also target a different generation of millennial traffic.

On our casino, we're spending a lot of time on our in-house and new development team. We are building our own casino website with fresh look and feel and innovative content, again, targeting a different audience. And we're also looking to become the leading live casino provider in Greece. I think this is a key area to aim for more high-value customers, and overall building a stronger gaming awareness, because at the moment our brand resonates more with the sports customer and we needed to grow overall -- all of our product space.

When we have a look at our exclusive products, our current offer is Joker. It's the biggest lottery game in Greece. And it has the highest awareness, and we drive really good traffic through this. But at the moment, it's just one product, and we need to add the whole portfolio of both aspirational and achievable prizes to our products -- and our exclusive products. In retail, at the moment they have a fuller breadth of products and we will be adding those in the future. We are going to be creating an online entertainment destination overall for numeric games.

On our financials, it is clear to see that our online business is progressing in a very positive manner, quarter-on-quarter. Rapid growth was seen through the COVID lockdown periods, and this trend has accelerated our online business. GGR and actives remained strong on existing -- on exiting the lockdown. And our expectations are to see significant year-on-year uplift over the short and long term with our ambition to see 6x multiple on our 2020 GGR, and EBITDA margin exceeding 2020 Group's margin of 23%.

We are now in a phase of upgrading our non-exclusive products both in front-end and in content, and we fully expect 2020 to be a year of full transformation with exciting releases and new and innovative improvements that would excite our customers. We are also looking to leverage our exclusive iLottery portfolio by adding more content, and this will have a significant financial uplift, which will in turn drive our actives to new heights. We fully expect over the next 5 years to grow our active base by over 95%, therefore, increasing the overall market share in Greece. Thank you.

G
George Daskalakis;Founder and the CEO of Stoiximan
executive

Thank you, James. [indiscernible] Hello, again. It turns out my mic was turned off. So I was saying, I'm happy to be here today. And along with my colleague, Pavlos Kanellopoulos, our CFO, we're going to be talking to you about Kaizen Gaming, and of course, focus on Stoiximan.

So to begin with a few introductory information about Kaizen Gaming, we've been online for the past 9 years. And we are one of the leading and fastest growing operators of online gaming in Europe right now. As you probably know, we have 2 different brands. Stoiximan, which is very well known, and is our brand for the Greek and Cypriot market, and Betano, which is our international brand. I would say that from the beginning we've always been a company that's been focused on sports betting, and this is also evident in our breakdown.

When it comes to our GGR, almost 2/3 of our revenue last year came from sports betting. At the same time, gaming has become more and more important for us. And in addition, the pandemic has accelerated its growth and we can see a lot of the traction in the gaming product as well. Stoiximan remains to be the dominant side, source of income for Kaizen Gaming. As you can see, almost 75% of our revenue last year came from the Greek and Cypriot business. We are now active in 6 markets as we speak. So apart from Greece and Cyprus, where we're active with Stoiximan, we are also active in Germany, Romania, Portugal and Brazil under the brand of Betano. Right now we are coming close to 700,000 unique active players across all markets. And of course, we are aiming to see this number grow to more than 1 million users in 2022.

I would say that the 2 key components of what we have achieved so far have been our people and technology. Our people, the passion of our people, I think that has grown from 20 people to more than 1,000 recently. And within that team, a very strong tech unit, which is of course crucial and adjust for what we're doing now, but most importantly for our future plans. At the same time, technology is becoming more and more important and we have achieved this year to migrate all our operators, all our markets to our new proprietary sports betting software Ariadne.

A few fact and figures that about Stoiximan and Betano, the ones you can now see on your screen. We have a very rich sports betting offering. I talked to you earlier about Ariadne platform. We are very happy. We believe Ariadne is key for our future. The transition has been, I would say, very smooth for our new platform. And most importantly, it gives us the flexibility to have our own road map, have our own agenda, drive our product forward much faster and also differentiate from the competition.

We are handling a very large amount, as you can see, of transactions which is continuously growing in our scalable and stable platform. And at the same time, we are very active when it comes our relationship with sports society. We are sponsors in clubs, football clubs in almost all the markets where we are active, also supporting amateur athletes, and taking a lot of social initiatives in the markets where our brands are present. We have received international recognition in the last 3 years from the market, but also when it comes to awards. I think one telling moment was when 2 years ago, we won the EGR Operator -- Mobile Operator of the Year Award. You understand this is a very prestigious award. And I think it came to a surprise to many back then that we were the brand [ that on this ]. We take a lot of pride in our mobile and natives product. And of course, it's a channel that's becoming more important with time, a crucial channel for any operator. So we are very happy to have such an acknowledged product when it comes to this key channel.

In our markets, and to begin with Greece and Cyprus, 2 markets where we've become the market leader for quite a while now with market shares that according to the official numbers, a range above the 40% mark. As -- it's also evident on the comment. Next, the Greek market share this is based, of course, on the official data. There is probably some amount when it comes to the Greek market. However, we believe and we hope, and as Jan said earlier, that now starting with licensing that took place in August, we'll enjoy a level playing field going forward, which would be beneficial, of course, not just for us but also for the industry in Greece and for the Greek state.

When it comes to our Betano market, the 2 markets where we have a bigger presence are Romania, the first market that we entered with a license back in 2016, and Portugal, which we entered 2 years ago. In both of these markets, it's estimated that we are the third biggest operator, usually behind the local operators, local champions. According to the data that we have from HGC, it seems like we have more than 20% in Romania. To be honest with you, based on estimates that we have internally, we believe this percentage is probably closer to just below 20%, but there are no official data so that we can have conclusions like we do in Greece in Cyprus. In Portugal, where there are official data, we had 11% market share, which has actually, in the last quarter, grown to 15%. So we're enjoying a very fast growth in Portugal.

As Jan mentioned earlier, our product portfolio is mainly comprised of 2 components, our sports betting product and the online gaming product on our properties. When it comes to sports betting, it's, I would say, our strongest asset. We're well-known for our product. And all the customer surveys that we've been running across time have shown that we enjoy a lot of recognition for it. And it's actually the reason that people register with our brands. And of course, we do have gaming customers as well, but it's very common that gaming customers are ones that we cross-sell after they come in for our sports betting product. And we have a very rich sports betting product. I would say we are one of those companies that do not focus on margin, but focus on the customer experience. And our aim is to retain players and bring revenue via engagement and not via high margins when it comes to our sports betting. We have also supporting products like e-sports and fantasy with special e-sports, showing more promise for the future, though they are both quite small at the moment.

When it comes to gaming, we've given a lot more focus during the last 2, 3 years. One of the main reasons is that in the past, it was quite uncertain whether the online regulation in Greece would include RNG. This changed in the last couple of years. And after that, we paid a lot more attention to our product. We're continuously improving it, adding games to our portfolio, launching exclusive games with operators, having our own tables when it comes to live casino, and also some innovative initiatives, I would say. And going forward, we expect our gaming to continue growing fast, especially based on the evidence that we've seen in the past year. The numbers are very encouraging, not just increasing Cyprus, but in general, I believe the pandemic played a key role in that.

Technology is at the forefront of everything that we do. We always like to call Kaizen a GameTech because we're offering games via technology. And I want to repeat how happy we are about Ariadne, our sports betting platform. We also have our own in-house bonus platform called Pandora. And do get confused by its name. I can assure you it does not create the problems of Pandora box wood. It actually does exactly the opposite. Also inspired from a Greek legacy -- a Greek culture [ I'm sorry ]. We call our own artificial intelligence automation platform, Prometheus. Prometheus is a platform that is helping us process customer payments automatically without the interference of our own service agents. And I have to say that it's only 1 of the 9 AI applications that are productive on our platform. It's an area where we have invested quite a bit during the last couple of years, and we are starting to see very satisfying results.

After those introductory comments, I'll now happily pass you on for the main event to Pavlos. Pavlos?

P
Pavlos Kanellopoulos;CFO of Stoiximan
executive

Thank you, George.

G
George Daskalakis;Founder and the CEO of Stoiximan
executive

[Foreign Language]

P
Pavlos Kanellopoulos;CFO of Stoiximan
executive

I think I'm very pleased to share with you the financial performance of Stoiximan. As you can see on the top left hand side of the screen, the GGR growth of the company historically has been very strong. We enjoy a compound average annual growth of 30% from 2017 to 2020. And this, of course, didn't stop in 2021, where we enjoyed a much faster growth primarily due to the fact that in the first half of 2020, we had a decimated Sportsbook calendar. So this helped us illustrate a much stronger growth in 2021. However, even if you take out the 2020 levels, 2021 was a very satisfactory growth in terms of top line.

On the bottom of the screen, you could see an equal and parallel growth of our monthly active players. We're taking out the Q2 of each year where it's historically a low season for a product. We have enjoyed sequential growth. And of course, during the Q4 of 2020, we had the jump of 40% in active customers. This was closely or primarily associated with the second lockdown that took effect in our Greek market. Now in the first half of the year, we have maintained our level of active customers, 202,000 players, corresponding to a monthly ARPU of over EUR 160 per player, which is a very healthy metric for the industry.

Now on the top right-hand side of your screen, you could see our profitability. As the business is scaling, you would see that our margins are growing. We have always been a profitable company. By the end of the year, we finished the year at EUR 55 million EBITDA and a margin of just over 20%. And for the first half of the year, we enjoyed a very healthy profitability for the business. And at EUR 39 million, this, of course, corresponds to an over 400% growth, but this is not a micro depiction since first half of 2020. It was not a normal year for us or a normal half year for us. Since last year, we didn't have any activity during 2 months of -- 3 months, half of March until end of June, there was no Sportsbook calendar for our players to play on. So it's not a micro depiction, but still 2021 in all metrics, it has been a very profitable half of the year.

Now in terms of outlook, we believe that our strategy is to go after and defend our leading market positions, both in Greece and Cyprus. We will aiming to grow our customer base, as we have done for the past several years. And of course, along with this, we expect to have absolute growth in our top line, both for 2021, but also in the future. And this, of course, will come with an improvement of our EBITDA levels for 2021. And our aim is to maintain a healthy high teens growth, high-teen margin in our EBITDA for the following years.

Now our business requires constant investment in technology, people and focus on front end and the back end of our product, and all these years has been our focus, and we'll continue to do so. Nonetheless, the initial investment has been done. So we are not expecting to have substantial CapEx requirements for this product. And of course, Stoiximan is enjoying the scale -- the scaling of the business of the other brand. So it's not paying exclusively for these developments and sharing the expenses.

So all in all, we are very pleased with the performance. We expect this to continue in a stable environment that the licenses that were provided at the -- in August of this year gives us a playing level field, and an arena where we can plan and enjoy the competitive environment in the Greece -- in the Greek and the Cypriot market.

I think with this, I complete -- I have completed the analysis and I think I'll pass the floor to Pavel to talk about the Concession Agreement.

P
Pavel Mucha
executive

Thank you, Pavlos. So you have just heard from James, George and Pavlos, the details of our online strategy, which will form one of important pillars of the future OPAP growth. I would like now to take the opportunity of this extended call to remind you, again, about another important factor that will contribute to future strong financial performance of OPAP. And that is the extension of Concession Agreement for lottery and retail sports betting for 2020 to 2030.

A little bit of history to remind. Back in 2011, OPAP signed addendum to lottery and betting extension for years 2020 to 2030, and OPAP paid a consideration of EUR 375 million. In 2013, amendment to addendum was signed, which specified that EUR 300 million, out of EUR 375 million, corresponded to GGR contribution prepayment for the 10 years period. The addendum stipulates that this GGR contribution prepayment has a future value of EUR 1.83 billion spread over the 10 years. And as of October 2020, OPAP indeed implemented this 10-year extension of Concession Agreement. And accordingly, the GGR contribution rate has dropped from 35% to 30% for the next 10 years. 25 percentage points out of the 30% was already prepaid. So on a cash basis, OPAP now pays only 5% GGR contribution for the next 10 years. At the same time, OPAP also recognizes in the P&L, EUR 1.83 billion prepayment of the GGR contribution.

At the end of the decade, the agreement with the Greek state prescribes for a settlement mechanism based on which OPAP and the Greek state should counterbalance the 10-year cash payments of 5% GGR contribution rate, plus the amount of [ EUR 183 billion ], which was prepaid, net of any corporate tax impact, and this is counterbalanced against the nominal tax rate of 30%. The difference will be paid as a settlement fee either way OPAP to Hellenic Republic or Hellenic Republic to OPAP in 2031. This benefit has been already reflected in our EBITDA and cash flow since October 2020.

Here, I'm showing just a difference between the previous and new tax regime on an example of EUR 1 billion of theoretical GGR for the games under this concession. I believe it is self-explanatory. So rather than going through it in detail, I'll give you just the key highlights. In a nutshell, the EBITDA is increased by EUR 265 million, which is a sum of the reduction of the GGR contribution rate from 35% to 30%, plus the EUR 183 million prepaid back in 2013, plus an amount offsetting increased corporate tax burden as a result of higher profitability, less higher commission paid to our agents because their commission is NGR related. This EBITDA upside then obviously translates into net profit upside. And also, please note that the free cash flow of EUR 228 million is higher than net profit, also because the settlement amount, which is charged to the P&L now, does not become payable until 2031.

And here is just a reminder that what I just described is applicable for the next 10 years. So basically, this EUR 1 billion of GGR over 10 years would bring over the 10 years, positive EBITDA upside of EUR 2.6 billion, and free cash flow upside of EUR 2.2 billion. And at the same time, we will have to pay additional settlement amount of EUR 93 million in 2031.

With that, I'm moving to the last part of my presentation, and that is our future dividend policy. The mechanism of the 2020 to 2030 license agreement, which I just described, will be obviously one of important sources of future shareholder returns, obviously, together with ongoing strong OPAP financial performance, which will be the result of delivery of our strategy.

So I will now conclude my part with reassurance about our dividend policy. I will start with the remainder of the dividend payments since 2013, i.e., from the year when OPAP was fully privatized. OPAP was consistently paying dividends every year and providing strong shareholder returns already in the past with average dividend yield over the period reaching 9.2%. Going forward, we continue to be committed to provide shareholders with annual dividend distribution, and we intend to give maximum possible amounts which we can.

If you look at the historical dividend payments, you can see some fluctuations in the past. But by committing now to maximum possible amount for future and also being helped by the new tax regime, which I just described, you can expect that the minimum floor on the annual dividends will be EUR 1.00 dividend per share as a minimum. We intend to distribute dividend consistently and regularly twice a year as interim dividend and final dividend, with interim being announced always with the half year results. There will be also occasions for special dividend distributions going forward. That way, we intend to distribute in full not only the net profits of the given year, but also all retained earnings. And also, at some stage, all the share premium, which is being built up as a result of scrip dividend. So to conclude from me on the dividends, our business strategy, together with favorable tax regime will secure regular, consistent and high shareholder returns going forward.

With that, I hand you over back to Jan for his closing remarks.

J
Jan Karas
executive

Thank you, Pavel. I hope you have enjoyed the presentations. Before we close this part, let me sum up a few of the key messages we were trying to convey. Our retail shows great recovery. And with our exclusive concessions, the digital innovations and smart anonymization of the base, we believe we are certain it will remain very strong. In online, for all the reasons that you have heard today, we will sustain our leading position and grow in absolute terms. This will help us further increase our profitability as OPAP Group, aided also by the addendum effect. With healthy and high cash generation, we will provide substantial dividend payout, continuing our generous shareholders reward. Speaking on behalf of all of us, we are very confident on this optimistic outlook.

Now I'm handing over to the operator, closing the first part and opening the floor for your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Draziotis, Stamatios with Eurobank Equities.

S
Stamatios Draziotis
analyst

Yes. It's really great hearing the views of Stoiximan's management team. Very useful insight indeed. I have few questions lined up, if I may, please. My first question actually relates to your land-based business. Just looking at the presentation, and you are basically referring to quite encouraging performance since June for the legacy games. I just wanted to make sure I understand correctly. Could you tell us the extent of normalization of trading just for your over-the-counter business. So excluding any contribution from online, which is reported in lotteries and betting, and give us your thoughts as to how this might shape in the next couple of years because clearly, there's going to be a return to normality. But on the other hand, maybe there is going to be migration from the retail channel to online. So that's the first question.

Second question has to do with the online market landscape. And I guess, either you or Stoiximan team can address that. You mentioned that there was -- there's a significant number of licensees having acquired the license, but most of these are actually already existing players. Just wondering what exactly you think this means from a competitive point of view? Will competition ramp up? Do you expect margins to come under some sort of pressure? And well, I'll let you answer these 2 questions, and I will proceed with the others after that.

J
Jan Karas
executive

Thank you. Thank you for your questions. I'll go ahead on the first one, I will let my colleagues, online experts to answer the second one. So regarding your point about retail, just a clarification, if it was not clear from my presentation, when I was referring to a strong recovery and good performance of our legacy games, I was referring entirely to retail. So not retail and online. I was referring to retail. And that's why we are so pleased with the performance. And we strongly believe this was deeply aided by the early success of the loyalty scheme and the whole trend of the anonymization of the retail base and CRM campaigns connected with that. So that's just to clarify.

Second, you were referring to going back to normality. I think I would say it's second half of 2021. And honestly, we don't believe too much into going back to normality of 2019. I think the customer expectations, mindset, way of thinking, preferences has changed and shifted so much that there is not going to be such a thing as going back to normal. We are much more adopting to the new normal. And given our results, I believe we are adopting very successfully, and that's something we will continue to do. The full extent of the Delta variant is still remains to be seen. I believe we are well prepared for anything that could come down our way, and we are very optimistic about the retail outlook.

So if you ask me, I think much more of a challenge than possible online cannibalization of our retail business, is this adoption to the -- to new normal and new preferences of our customers. That's why we invest so much emphasis -- so much efforts and emphasis into digitalization of our retail and smart the anonymization of the base so that we can understand the customer needs better and address them better in whatever the future brings.

I hope I covered your question, and I will hand over to my colleagues on their remarks about the outlooks on online market landscape. George?

G
George Daskalakis;Founder and the CEO of Stoiximan
executive

Thank you, Jan. [Foreign Language] When we talk about the regulated era, I think it was also mentioned earlier in the presentation by Jan. We're talking about 12 of the 15 licenses being companies that were already active in the Greek market before the licenses were issued. I think that the competitive landscape will not change a lot. Nobody can rule out. And more companies, of course, will apply in the coming months or years. But from the international experience, I would say that when there are so many operators in our market. And let's say, the pie has been distributed up to an extent. It is not very easy for new operators to come in and obtain a significant share. They have to really bolster some competitive advantage of some sort that will make them stand apart from the competition. I don't think this is very easy right now, as also most of the leading online operators are already active in Greece.

Do we expect the competition to increase? Definitely. It has been increasing during the last few years and it will continue to increase. And as always, the market leader faces pressure from that. We are very confident in our plans and the experience we offer to our customers and our brand equity. I would expect that our absolute market share, which, again, what we saw earlier, we cannot say it's accurate because it's only an outcome of the officially declared figures by the Hellenic Gaming Commission. I would expect this market share to slightly decrease over time. I've been in this industry for 20 years. I'm not familiar with any market where the market leader had almost half of the market captured in the long term. However, I strongly believe that the growth of the market would be -- will lead to our final absolute result, which will continue to be bigger and bigger in the coming years, even if our market share slightly decreases.

So overall, I remain confident about the coming years. And I believe Stoiximan will continue to come up with excellent performance, and we'll continue leading the market and setting the pace for the Greek online industry.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Young, Ed with Morgan Stanley.

E
Edward Young
analyst

First of all, I appreciate the online offer is very sports led. Just wondered if you could talk about the impact of maximum online casino stakes in the market. Could you remind us when you lap those? Do you think those measures might be relaxed at some point? If not, do you think the gray market might end up taking up some more of that market growth you're excited about? And if it is relaxed, what do you think the impact will be on your VLT business?

And the second one, you've obviously struck a very confident and positive tone in this update. Is it a fair conclusion for us to draw that you don't think the upside of the business is sufficiently reflected in the Blumberg consensus that you published in the presentation?

G
George Daskalakis;Founder and the CEO of Stoiximan
executive

Hi, Ed, so I'll answer your first question, at least from the outlook we have at Stoiximan right now. It's quite early days. And what I mean by that is that the new regime was launched on August 5. I hope that most of you know what August means for Greece, our society. And for those who don't, I have to tell you that it's a month that is characterized by holidays. It's a classic holiday season. In addition, of course, there's not a lot of mainstream football leagues going on. And especially this year, I have to say everybody seem to really need a good holiday in August. And why am I mentioning this? Because usually, every year, it's September that we really draw our first conclusions about our performance for the new season. Because actually, we do think in football seasons, to be honest with you, when we talk internally as a companies, we plan -- of course, we have annual plans and annual budgets, but we are like a football team. And for us, the new season begins every September. So we have seen the initial, let's say, effect of the new limit.

What is difficult is -- to conclude, what this will be because we have already seen in every week a different outcome. Overall, it would definitely hit us a bit. We are seeing, at the same time, a small increase in the live casino. So some of the users are increasing their spend in live casino. And also, we are seeing users returning and starting to become a custom in this way of playing. So I think we will need probably a month. I would say that in early October, we'll have more conclusions, because also now we are registering out of players, reactivating out of players with the start of the new season, which in Greece, by the way, started just this weekend.

It doesn't start early like the Premier League in England, for example. It started only on Saturday. And the Champions League just started yesterday. So I would probably say it would be best if we start talking about figures in October. Otherwise, now, if you ask me last week, I would give you something different from today. And probably next week, I will give you something different. I think in October, we'll be in a position to make our good first evaluation of the effect of the [ Euro League ].

P
Pavlos Kanellopoulos;CFO of Stoiximan
executive

Yeah, I mean, for me, I would agree with George. We see numbers different every week. Of course, it has an impact, especially with the higher-value customers because they're having to change their behaviors. What I've seen before, because I come from more regulated markets in here, is that over time customers get used to the way that they play. And I think that what we're going through. Now is the process of customers actually getting used to playing different maximums than they're used to. We've also seen an uplift of live casino, and that's why you see from our slide deck, the online strategy for our brand is to put more focus there for those customers. And we're seeing a transition there as well. But we're monitoring, as is George, on a weekly basis, not even on a monthly basis, and we think there'll be some changes going forward.

J
Jan Karas
executive

And also the part of your question as to a possible change of the current status quo. Let me remind you that this is completely in decision of HGC and the Ministry of Finance for them to decide, and we have no informations and updates on that front.

P
Pavel Mucha
executive

Okay. I will take the second question. Yes, I think the Bloomberg forecast, which we included in the presentation in terms of EBITDA, we believe with the current good performance, which you've heard both in retail and online that we should get there or thereabouts in terms of EBITDA of 2021, there is obviously one strong disclaimer, assuming that the operating environment, retail environment remains as it is now. But with the pandemic, we believe with some progress of the vaccination in Greece, we don't believe there will be another lockdown coming. But we can't rule out any more restrictive measures in terms of opening hours and things like that. But if things remains as there are, we should be getting very close to these numbers.

E
Edward Young
analyst

Understood. Just one quick follow-up then. On next year's or the year after, you're clearly talking about retail and legacy businesses performing sort of in line with where they are online upside, but the tax upside is -- are those forward numbers too conservative? Or do you think they reflect well the kind of range of outcomes you'd expect given what you said today?

J
Jan Karas
executive

I think going forward, again, we will see how pandemic shape the result. But when we think about total OPAP business online and retail combined again, what's depicted there as a sort of average or base case estimate. I don't think that's far away from what OPAP business can achieve.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Chauhan, Virendra with AlphaValue.

V
Virendra Chauhan
analyst

I have a couple of them. So the first one is around the online GGR that we saw for the quarter, Q2 specifically. So you noted that there's been kind of a slowdown Q1 to Q2. And while most of the other operators have reported sequential growth in the same time frame. So is that reflective of one, increased competition or is there something else that I'm probably missing?

And then secondly, on the EBITDA margin, I think now that we have had an entire half with the effect of both online as well as the effect of the condition agreement, is this 36% thereabout EBITDA margin reflective of what we could probably expect in the longer term from here? That's it from my side.

J
Jan Karas
executive

I'll take the first one. It's a simple answer. The Q1 versus Q2 difference is driven by the retail network opening that has happened early Q2, and that obviously had a major impact on the Greek market customers' behaviors.

V
Virendra Chauhan
analyst

Okay. So if I -- just a follow-up, would that mean that there's been a similar contraction in the overall online market as well.

J
Jan Karas
executive

That's correct. Yes.

P
Pavel Mucha
executive

And the second question about EBITDA margin. Yes, indeed, what we've recorded for the first part of the year is around 36.2%. And as I already mentioned, it was definitely impacted by the pandemic. You have to bear in mind that the retail network was shut down. So definitely, our GGR performance was not normal. And although we were cutting the cost base, you still have running fixed cost which you can't avoid. So definitely, the margin was so far impacted by the pandemic and the 36% is definitely not full reflection of true OPAP financial performance. The margin going forward will be moving upwards.

V
Virendra Chauhan
analyst

Okay. So just one more question that I had. Can I just ask that as well?

J
Jan Karas
executive

Yes, please.

V
Virendra Chauhan
analyst

On the online now business, and that's from your slide where you're showing the potential of the OPAP online business. And I have seen the box there that you have a CAGR of more than 45%. So is that the kind of target that you're targeting for the OPAP? Is that the right understanding?

J
Jan Karas
executive

Apologies, wouldn't you mind to repeat the question? We have troubles to hear you.

V
Virendra Chauhan
analyst

Yes. In the slide, OPAP online financial performance in your presentation, I see that you have mentioned envisaged 5-year CAGR of more than 45%. So is that the understanding that that's some kind of an outlook or target for OPAP's online growth from the 2020 basis.

P
Pavel Mucha
executive

Yes, that's correct. And it will be driven not only by a nonexclusive portfolio, where, as you've heard, the market is quite saturated and very competitive. But that's definitely the result that we are planning to bring much more wide lottery portfolio into online with just definitely better payouts than sports betting or casino. So it will be the fact that we want to bring more significant volatile portfolio into online. So that's why we have such a big ambition.

J
Jan Karas
executive

We are very strong in retail today in this area, and we are talking about exclusive online offers. So we believe that is certainly a great opportunity for us.

V
Virendra Chauhan
analyst

And just one last follow-up from my side on this. So as we've noticed with other lottery firms in other geographies where they have a significant margin differential between offline to online in the lottery space, especially and even up to twice the margin. So is that something that you expect like from -- by the lottery like do you see online lottery margins being significantly higher?

J
Jan Karas
executive

I think our strategy for online, if you are referring to iLottery, how specifically we will approach the market. That is something that is currently in the kitchen, and we are outlining our go-to-market strategy where the margins and payouts are part of the exercise. So I would kindly abstain from it -- hope you could hear me. I hear myself.

[Technical Difficulty]

O
Osman Memisoglu
analyst

[Audio Gap]

guiding for high fees for Stoiximan but 23% or so for Stoiximan. Just wondering what's driving that difference for that.

J
Jan Karas
executive

Osman, we apologize. I heard that question about Stoiximan. But we only heard the last words that you said because we had an issue with sound. So if you are kind enough to repeat the question?

O
Osman Memisoglu
analyst

Sure, sure. So first part, first half Stoiximan margin was about 20%. Do you -- what's the outlook for the rest of the year and potentially for '22? And also for the longer term, you have 5G as the outlook for Stoiximan, but you have OPAP online at 23%. So just wondering what drives that difference? And I have another question on separate customers.

P
Pavel Mucha
executive

First half of the year was particularly strong. Second half of the year, we don't expect to meet the same level of margin, but we'll be very close to that. Of course, we still very much related with Sportsbook margin, which is not in our control. And we will need to factor in, which is not part of the first half results. The unknown yet effect from August 5 in position of the limits on RNG Casino. So our aim is to maintain a high-teen levels of EBITDA margin going forward. But again, second half of the year will be somehow different from the first half of the year.

J
James Curwen;Chief Online Officer
executive

Okay. And the second part of the question, the reason why we predict better margin on OPAP is again the portfolio. On a nonexclusive, it's difficult given the payouts to go higher than what was described by Pavel. But because we are planning to bring lottery products, which have lower payout than sports betting and casino. That's why we can forecast a little bit higher-margin on OPAP online. It's due to exclusive games, lottery games.

O
Osman Memisoglu
analyst

And if I could follow up on your dividend strategy and particularly about the rationale of base relatively limited test in Q2 versus what you can maybe waiting for Q3 and potentially paying a larger one. How should I think about that maybe seeing a very volatile period or you look at it on a quarterly basis, mainly in the potential debate.

J
Jan Karas
executive

Okay. Well, we had a lot of discussions about the interim dividend, and we want to give it because we believe the performance is good. Now you have to bear in mind what's our net profit, which we generated for the first half year. It wasn't definitely normally the retail, with the bigger part of the business was closed. So we wanted to give proportion at level of interim dividend. We didn't give any interim dividend last year and the year before, when we were giving the interim dividend in early years, it was also EUR 0.10. Going forward, and things normalizing post pandemic, you can expect the interim dividend to be higher than EUR 0.10. But now we took cautious decision again because of pandemic and because of what we created in the first half of the year to give EUR 0.10.

O
Osman Memisoglu
analyst

Perfect. And maybe a small follow-up on the online lottery products. Is there any color in terms of timing of ramp-up both of these? What should we expect that relatively?

P
Pavel Mucha
executive

Well, as you have heard from James, we certainly intend to significantly strengthen our portfolio during next year. Very specific time plans is something we will share with you at a later stage once that's the whole technical, legal compliance, commercial aspects of the whole go-to-market plan will be clarified.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Birbos, Dimitris with Optima Bank.

D
Dimitris Birbos
analyst

Actually, I have 2 questions from my side. The first one has to do with your prediction about the online GGR growth in the next 6 years, almost double the size versus 2020. So I'm wondering if this could translate into some pressure on your retail betting offering, Pame Stoixima. And what other ways to defend your land-based offering? This is my first question. And my first -- second question has to do with Stoiximan. The first one has to do with your marketing expenses, if there is any guideline, let's say, percent of GGR for each year, in order to have some realistic visibility on this specific cost element.

And my second question has to do with the potential entry of some new players in the market or some extra competition. So what are the ways to defend your market share, which stands at 42%, you said that it might come down a bit less, a bit lower. So we expect higher roads, more bonus to players, more advertisement, what are the strategies to defend your overall market position. Thanks.

J
Jan Karas
executive

All right. I will take the first part. Yes, you are right that, obviously, growing online with all the ambitions we have ahead of us, it would be naive to expect that it will not take its toll in the retail network. Yet, we remain optimistic about the future continued strong position of retail for 2 main reasons. One is that despite the online cannibalization, there is a lot of opportunities in digitalization that we are certainly -- we have already embarked on the journey, and we are certainly delivering and upgrading the experience. The one particular step that is just around the corner is enabling customers to play on their customer device and that not just placing a bet, but also paying for the bet and collecting the winnings, while in the store.

So bringing the experience of placing a bet and enjoying the game itself closer between the retail and online world, something that is particularly important for the younger generation. And very importantly, the second aspect besides the digitalization of the customer journeys, and that is the entertainment. So that's the unique and essential benefit of the retail network, and that's why we so much believe in its future is because it can always offer the real-life experiences, socializing of people, seeing the games on a large screen, being together, playing together, and that's something that has certainly resonated well with our customers in the past now, and we believe that is something here to stay, judging from the customer feedbacks and the success of the business we have seen so far.

Last but not least, as I have referred a few times, to a very important topic, and that is the anonymization or as we say, smart, the anonymization of the retail customer base, something that will give us hundreds of thousands of data points about specific customers, how they play, what they play, what they want. And that is something we can then convert into successful CRM cross-sell and upsell campaigns, again, something that has very much materialized as part of the success in our online and in VLTs where we are doing it today. So a combination of digitalization, data, CRM and building more entertainment, we believe are the key success factors that will not only compensate the possible online cannibalization, but also enable explore the opportunities for further growth.

D
Dimitris Birbos
analyst

The other 2 questions about Stoiximan.

G
George Daskalakis;Founder and the CEO of Stoiximan
executive

Yes, Dimitris. I will answer those questions for you. I will probably actually answer the second part because when it comes to the first part, I'm afraid I won't be able to provide you with any mid, long-term guidance on the marketing expenses as we speak. And the reason for that is that we are evaluating the situation after the recent market opening and all the changes that we implemented, including the RNG limits and the additional tax. So this is something that we will be weighing up our options on. And rest assured that we will obviously defend our market league.

Talking about our market lead. I think that we're not a company basis, it's attractiveness offering the highest price or the biggest bonuses. We believe that our biggest asset is the customer experience that we offer, and we'll continue investing in that. And in my personal opinion, this is the only way to be successful in the long term and not bonusing and short-term acquisition efforts.. Apart from the customer experience that I mentioned, which will be boosted a lot by our recently launched proprietary sports betting platform, I think the second key asset for us is our brand, our brand equity. We've built this brand during the last 9 years, and it has a very high recognition, and we believe that we'll continue investing in our brand.

And honestly, I think like OPAP is a synonym of gaming for offline. We feel very happy that Stoiximan has equally become something similar, of course, with not such rich history when it comes to online gaming. And we'll do everything we can in order to provide this experience to our customers and make sure that we remain #1 in the market. As I said earlier, I don't believe that forward is a reasonable expectation, especially once we have the full market picture. But I would expect us to move in the mid-30s range in the long term. And that would definitely way offset the loss we have in market share, and the loss in the smallest market share will be way offset by the total growth of the market, and we expect to keep growing year-to-year. Thank you.

D
Dimitris Birbos
analyst

I have a follow-up up question about Betano. If you could tell us something about the profitability of this segment in 2020 or better in 2021? And what are the prospects of the market -- the new markets in Germany and Brazil, I have seen that you have a lot of advertisement on -- in Germany, with Stuttgart sponsorship. So overall, what we should expect in terms of profitability and the prospects of Brazil and Germany, if you could share some insights about the new markets there.

J
Jan Karas
executive

Yes, of course, when we talk about profitability, you have to understand Betano is a whole different case, Betano is something which is relatively new. And what we're aiming at is growth. Having said that, Betano was profitable in 2020, marginally profitable. And we expect the same thing to happen in 2021 by some very big surprise. The focus, though, is not on the EBITDA or the profit. The focus is on building a national brand and growing. I have to say that this is somewhat challenging.

We have to compete with brands that have a much wider geographical coverage and to build the international brand, you need range. So our focus right now is on growing this range. When it comes specifically to Germany and Brazil, I must say that Germany is a very difficult market, especially recently with the regulatory changes that took place, I would say, it's a nightmare for most operators. Likely, we are not dependent on Germany because we didn't have a big position there. We are expecting to see what is going to happen in the next few months, and if they're going to be any more changes or improvements. But I would say that right now, Germany is something which is not on the spotlight for us.

As for Brazil, it's for us our best market, we wanted to explore South America, Brazil is our big market and it's as always, we only enter regulated markets or soon to be regulated markets, and Brazil is expected to be regulated in 2022. So I would say, for us, this is an experiment of expanding in Lat Am. We believe there is potential there. But at the moment, Brazil is also a market which is small for us. Romania and Portugal are the 2 markets where we have an established presence.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Draziotis Stamatios with Eurobank Equities.

S
Stamatios Draziotis
analyst

Yes, just a couple of follow-ups, if I may, please. First one is operational. You talked about the maximum online casino stakes. Just wondering, was the effect from the new regime regarding tax on winning has been. Again, I know this was implemented in August. So probably you don't have many data points, but any comment would be very helpful. And the second question is a follow-up on the dividend. Just wondering what would the -- what would be the trigger for a special dividend? And do you -- is this part of your intention, willingness or the fact that you remain comfortable effectively going to a leverage ratio closer to 2x EBITDA.

J
James Curwen;Chief Online Officer
executive

Hello again, Dimitri, on the -- on your first question, I have to be honest at the combination of the RNG limit and the newly imposed tax, although it's early days, will definitely have a sizable effect to our business. Having said that, we expect to continue showing growth in H2 versus last year, very satisfying growth. So we remain confident, albeit the fact that it will somewhat hear us about our profitability in our year-end results. Jan?

J
Jan Karas
executive

Yes. I mean we're in the same position. We're monitoring it every week. Obviously, everything has had an impact on us, especially with higher-value customers because they're not used to playing to Euros. They're used to playing a lot more with it. But over time, customers get used to playing in a specific way in a regulated market, and we think that over time, it will normalize. But obviously, at the moment, yes, we're all having an impact in dealing with that in the best way we can.

P
Pavel Mucha
executive

Okay. In terms of the dividend, when I spoke about special dividend, I had especially the share premium on my mind. As I mentioned, because of the scrip dividend, and it proves to be popular weight, large number of not only the biggest shareholder but many international institution and free float investors, we are building, we are issuing a lot of new shares with a share premium, and it's a substantial amount, which we intend to distribute at some stage. So that's mainly what I meant. Certainly not to the second part of your question, our thinking is not that we would increase the leverage closer to 2x and use that for the dividend payment. That's certainly not what we would think being doing for the special dividend. It's the distribution of the share premium.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further audio questions. We will now move to our webcast questions. First question is from Fani Tzoukalia with Wood & Company. And I quote, regarding Stoiximan online business, what is the outlook on EBITDA margin for the next couple of years? And what is the target for a maturated -- for a matured EBITDA margin.

P
Pavel Mucha
executive

I think we have covered this. The outlook for the EBITDA margin as we have detailed in our deck presentation is high teens EBITDA margin going forward. But still, the target for the matured EBITDA margin are still we're far away from that. When we're growing 30% year-on-year and especially in this year, even more, I think we are far away from matured level of a company or a target of EBITDA margin. So I think we're still enjoying the hyper growth that the digitization of the online gaming is giving us, and we will ride the wave for as long as it lasts.

Operator

Next webcast question is from Petar Grgasovic with InterCapital Asset Management. And I quote, what is net debt to EBITDA, including increased liabilities? That is the first question. The second question is, can you give me more details on the effect on bottom line on new player winning tax regime? Does that include both offline and online? And third question is CapEx estimates for full year '21 and full year '22.

P
Pavel Mucha
executive

Okay. So the first question, the net debt to EBITDA, including increased liabilities is 1.3x. The second question, James, you will.

J
James Curwen;Chief Online Officer
executive

I mean I think we've covered that already, I think, with George that we're monitoring the effects now. And I think going forward, we'll be able to update you on the long-term effect of that. But at the moment, it's too early.

P
Pavel Mucha
executive

Indeed, it is certainly something we will be talking about in our Q3 financial results call. So let's wait for that too early now. Okay. In terms of CapEx estimates for '21 and 22, we have declared that normally, our normal CapEx is in the range of EUR 20 million to EUR 25 million. I would say, in '21, we will finish below this. In '22, we are still finalizing the plans. But again, there wouldn't be anything surprising. It would certainly not go above this level. But what I would mention for '21, what I said during my presentation, on top of this normal CapEx in '21, we still paid EUR 19 million for Stoiximan acquisition. Also, we paid EUR 10 million for the online licenses. And in '22, we will have to pay also some remaining amount for the Stoiximan acquisition.

J
Jan Karas
executive

Thank you. If I may kindly ask the moderator, leveraging the benefits of the digitally submitted questions, could we maybe go one by one so that the audience can hear the question-and-answer at the same time, if that's okay.

Operator

Of course. The next question is from Iakovos Kourtesis with Piraeus Securities. And his first question is and I quote, do you have any particular time frame that you could share with us for the online launch of KINO or and/or Lotto?

J
Jan Karas
executive

As discussed before, we intend to bring these games to online during next year.

Operator

Second question is any news on the arbitration with the Greek state related to the million GGR tax payment of EUR 50 million per year for Hellenic Lotteries?

J
Jan Karas
executive

On this matter, we continue to defend our rights. The arbitration continues. It's in process, and I don't have any new updates on that at the moment. When we do have, we will certainly come back to you.

Operator

Third and final question. Any investment plan or potential areas you would like to expand in the near future, example, expansion, enhancement in business areas or in new geographical segment.

J
Jan Karas
executive

Well, we certainly have a lot of homeworks to do in the area of online and retail in the core parts of our business. But that doesn't mean that we are not looking into what else we could explore. Our primary focus in this area is into auxiliary services that can complement nicely the proposition. Good example would certainly be following the success of bill payments that we offer in our retail network, we are now intending to look into the opportunities around packages delivery so-called Puro services, something that we will be piloting soon and hopefully expanding into successful business enriching the services in our retail network.

Another nice example, I think, is our e-banking ambition to bring to our customers' e-wallet proposition soon, extending, again, digitalization of retail and connection with the other areas of our business. Other than that, there are additional investment ideas and expansion ideas, but those we keep for ourselves for the moment, but I can assure you that we certainly keep exploring.

Operator

Next question is from Paris Mantzavras from Pantelakis Securities. Are there any plan of OPAP to raise is 37% stake in international business?

J
Jan Karas
executive

Thank you for the question. We have concluded on our investment. And at this moment, we do not have any intentions to further increase our stakes. Next one, please.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

J
Jan Karas
executive

I think we see one more question. George, do you want to comment it in...

G
George Daskalakis;Founder and the CEO of Stoiximan
executive

Yes, I can see a question from Victoria [indiscernible] Capital. Victoria is thanking the opportunity for nice presentation, but not the Stoiximan team. So I guess, Victoria, we'll try to do better next time. We can beat the guys are more experienced than this. So we OPAP, get the praise, and we get a question. Thank you. So what do we consider the main differences we observed when it comes to the Greek market versus international markets where we participate and especially demographics and customer behavior.

I wouldn't say there are huge differences. If I had to mention some, apart from our beloved high taxation and play winning taxes and the highest limit in Europe in RNG. Going back to the customer behavior and demographics, I would say our customers are slightly -- not a lot, but slightly a few years older, that could also stand from the fact that in Greece, online betting is only allowed for ages above 21 and above 18. We also see a stronger sports product versus gaming product. You saw earlier that we have almost 2/3 of our income coming from sports. Gaming has been growing, and it's going to continue growing and probably go close to the 40% mark when it comes to Greece.

At the same time, in international markets, some of them where gaming is actually bigger than sports and Greece has traditionally been a sportsbetting market. Talking about sports, of course, there are some differences in behavior because apart from soccer, which is the king of sport in almost all markets in all markets, actually, in Greece, basketball is the second sports, which doesn't stand for the other markets where we are in, where Tennis usually is the most important one. And finally, I have to say that there's also difference in communications. It turns out that Greek users like to engage themselves into a chat with our customer service, about stuff not strictly related to the betting activity. And they like to ask questions. I don't really like to read that lot. So sometimes, it's actually more demanding to serve Greek customers, for example, versus Romania customers who seem to be very keen on reading the FAQ and in general, read the terms and everything else that is offered to them. I hope that covers it. And I hope that next time, you'll be happy with our presentation as well, Victoria. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Karas for any closing comments. Thank you.

J
Jan Karas
executive

Thank you very much. Thank you very much for your attention, for all your questions. Big thanks to my colleagues for being with us and strengthening the usual participants of Pavel and myself. I hope you all have enjoyed the presentation and not only the audio, but also the video, but most importantly, the content and the quality of information we have handed over to you. We are looking forward to continue our conversations offline and see you no later than at our Q3 results. Have a great evening, ladies and gentlemen, and goodbye.